S-FM 209: Surreptitious: The Game of Spies

[JealousTL]

I am the only player who has mentioned anything that is not standard mafia 101.

I am known for making bizarre plays, making my claim questionable even if I am town read. If a player like kovath rng'ed this mechanic than everyone would, and probably should instantly believe him.

Quick was excited for this save, I CANT be the only one who knows something that the rest of town does not. If nobody claims claims it means either they have positive changes, unknown changes, I am a fucked like goats in cabbage town, or one of the sides was too strong so this was done to make it somewhat more balanced (isolated mafia, vs few TPR's) or (Town is strong and has an invest, and I am actually a town)

Am I taking fucking crazy pills?

I see, thank you for being candid. I would say that it certainly does not make sense for you to paint a target on your back by stating something that seems unbelievable. It is covered by the penumbra of the setup rules from what I can tell though, so it is hypothetically viable.

WIFOM necessitates that I consider the option that you have done this in an effort to detract from constructive discussion, and that you throw ambiguity into the mix. However, I still feel that it is a greater possibility that you are truly concerned about your position and your win condition. I will have to re-read the setup rules to be more certain. As of now, I give your plight a slight townlean.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I see, thank you for being candid. I would say that it certainly does not make sense for you to paint a target on your back by stating something that seems unbelievable. It is covered by the penumbra of the setup rules from what I can tell though, so it is hypothetically viable.

WIFOM necessitates that I consider the option that you have done this in an effort to detract from constructive discussion, and that you throw ambiguity into the mix. However, I still feel that it is a greater possibility that you are truly concerned about your position and your win condition. I will have to re-read the setup rules to be more certain. As of now, I give your plight a slight townlean.

You cant have a townlean on me, I don't have an alignment....

That being said, If you consider this as a ploy to derail discussion, look at when and how I did it. I openly start by pointing guns aimed nowhere and directing them at me. This is not an issue, but shows I was not trying to deflect the pressure away from something it was already on. Then we look at the discussion aspect. I got home from the restaurant on page 2, rvs stage, aka shitpost and troll central. To think I would make such a major risky gambit to derail discussion during a time where there is no discussion is a major leap in my opinion.

The only reason to even entertain that thought is because it is within my range of play to do it as town, (maybe mafia?).

If we look at what doing this accomplishes, WHEN I did it, it ONLY makes sense as TOWN. However, I have stated earlier, that if this is fake, I am ONLY doing it as mafia. Therefore, it should show that I can only be telling the truth. If we want to live in conspiracy theory worlds, I want it discusses SOONER rather than later because NOW is the time when shitposting happens, so I rather not waste end of day discussions on whether or not I am a fucking lunatic.

I am having issues determining my alignment. There has been a fair amount of pressure and backing off of me that makes me unsure if I am mafia, and they are backing off of me or if I am town and mafia are distancing/not really yet pouncing on me. If I am town, mafia WILL pressure me, likely for things that do not warrant the level of pressure given.

[Gingerape]

Aww...shapelog already took the 'I didnt read the setup very well and I miscounted the number of mafia members play' I was totally going to use that so people would think never think I'm mafia if I didn't even know how many teammates I had.

Oh, I'll use this text color so people passively think I'm town since town is green ^^

..uwah! I was just thinking out loud! >~<

Mhm. I don't know which group to vote for..hmm...I'm sure that there's a 2/1/1 split! That seems the most fairest way to do it ^^

So I guess any group at this point would be fine to choose....

Calix said they played with 4/5 people in group 3 and seems super confident about their vote. I can agree with that for now!

-vote Group 3

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Aww...shapelog already took the 'I didnt read the setup very well and I miscounted the number of mafia members play' I was totally going to use that so people would think never think I'm mafia if I didn't even know how many teammates I had.

Oh, I'll use this text color so people passively think I'm town since town is green ^^

..uwah! I was just thinking out loud! >~<

Mhm. I don't know which group to vote for..hmm...I'm sure that there's a 2/1/1 split! That seems the most fairest way to do it ^^

So I guess any group at this point would be fine to choose....

Calix said they played with 4/5 people in group 3 and seems super confident about their vote. I can agree with that for now!

-vote Group 3

If you do not know Calix's alignment, why do you want to follow what she wants? What If she is mafia and you are giving mafia the group they want?

What do you think of my situation?

[Gingerape]

Duck...you are totally on drugs, and not the good kind!
Maybe you're right. I don't know her alignment...but if I invite now then I'll look like a little waffle!
You're just trying to trick me--you're not even an alignment, you're believable though. The host did say there were special hidden snowflake mechanics and I can totally buy into you being a traitor.
I...I mean a temporary amnesiac >~< sorry...I don't know why I said that ^^;

I'm really cute trustworthy. So if my group gets voted then I'll totally defend myself with uh.. honor! Please don't hurt me. I have so much to live for.

go home duck. You're drunk.

[Titus]

I want to lynch in two imo. I don't like the fact there's so much diversion from 2, when two arguably has easier to sort players (less skilled).

[Titus]

I buy Duck as the hidden mechanic referenced in the setup. I think he's honest there.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Duck...you are totally on drugs, and not the good kind!
Maybe you're right. I don't know her alignment...but if I invite now then I'll look like a little waffle!
You're just trying to trick me--you're not even an alignment, you're believable though. The host did say there were special hidden snowflake mechanics and I can totally buy into you being a traitor.
I...I mean a temporary amnesiac >~< sorry...I don't know why I said that ^^;

I'm really cute trustworthy. So if my group gets voted then I'll totally defend myself with uh.. honor! Please don't hurt me. I have so much to live for.

go home duck. You're drunk.

If it was mafia wars II still I could be the drug dealer!!

Oh god If I remember my role as mafia who is alone im going to break something, probably my wall. I think it is impossible for me to be a role like traitor or mafioso as that would mean mafia loses their night kill role for a night? and makes the whole amnesiac part of my role a waste. I could see myself as any mafia utility or town roles like universal backup/deputy.

If your group is selected, why would you be focused on defending yourself rather than finding who the mafia in the group is? In your mind you should know you are town, and have nothing to defend yourself from. Your scum hunting should be your defense.

[Gingerape]

Duckhunt. Oh! Well! If my group is selected to star in the second round show, then shouldn't I go ahead and tell you guys why not to vote me for miss unpopular?
I don't get a vote. So I'm not telling you guys who in the group to vote for. I'm just going to tell you guys not to vote me because I'm super adorable. important? town! And you definitely don't wanna lynch town >~< unless you're an evil evil mafia.
Yea...so only the really bad guys will vote for me. So for sure get them if they do. ^^

[Titus]

Duckhunt. Oh! Well! If my group is selected to star in the second round show, then shouldn't I go ahead and tell you guys why not to vote me for miss unpopular?
I don't get a vote. So I'm not telling you guys who in the group to vote for. I'm just going to tell you guys not to vote me because I'm super adorable. important? town! And you definitely don't wanna lynch town >~< unless you're an evil evil mafia.
Yea...so only the really bad guys will vote for me. So for sure get them if they do. ^^

Given the bright traitor crumb you left, not so sure I buy that.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Duckhunt. Oh! Well! If my group is selected to star in the second round show, then shouldn't I go ahead and tell you guys why not to vote me for miss unpopular?
I don't get a vote. So I'm not telling you guys who in the group to vote for. I'm just going to tell you guys not to vote me because I'm super adorable. important? town! And you definitely don't wanna lynch town >~< unless you're an evil evil mafia.
Yea...so only the really bad guys will vote for me. So for sure get them if they do. ^^

I mean each player has their own unique style. You are more than welcome and probably encouraged by others to defend yourself, but think about it. If you are in a store that was robbed and a cop enters, you don't start telling the cop why you are not the robber, but you might give a description of what you saw or what happened.

Oh jesus i am almost sober and that analogy was fucking atrocious.

#@ginger what is your read on titus. Do you think you are both town?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Given the bright traitor crumb you left, not so sure I buy that.

Do you think mafia would breadcrumb so openly like that?

If you believe this could be a real breadcrumb, and you believe I am part of the hidden mechanic, am I likely to be town then?

traitor+amnesiac would mean mafia only has a working team of 2 right now, and I do not see how that would be the case.

[Calix]

Ginger's posting style is going to drive me up the wall. Titus might be onto something with Ginger trying to signal to the mafia although it is extremely obvious and guaranteed to draw a shitload of attention to them.

I mean each player has their own unique style. You are more than welcome and probably encouraged by others to defend yourself, but think about it. If you are in a store that was robbed and a cop enters, you don't start telling the cop why you are not the robber, but you might give a description of what you saw or what happened.

Oh jesus i am almost sober and that analogy was fucking atrocious.

#@ginger what is your read on titus. Do you think you are both town?

You are being weirdly charitable about Ginger's posting, which I find at odds with how you treated Yuki. Care to explain what makes them different in your eyes? Because both are in the same boat posting-wise (in general, not this game)

Why do you ask about Ginger/ Titus being T/ T over any other scenario?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Ginger's posting style is going to drive me up the wall. Titus might be onto something with Ginger trying to signal to the mafia although it is extremely obvious and guaranteed to draw a shitload of attention to them.



You are being weirdly charitable about Ginger's posting, which I find at odds with how you treated Yuki. Care to explain what makes them different in your eyes? Because both are in the same boat posting-wise (in general, not this game)

Why do you ask about Ginger/ Titus being T/ T over any other scenario?

1) trying to be nicer( won't last long, but trying)
2) yuki seemed like a russian trying to talk english in third person, and openly refused to answer my questions


As for the question on her? read, they were the only interaction going on. Ginger will obviously only say they are town, and I was curious to their reaction to Titus who I have a very specific read right now which I won't comment on because it would defeat the purpose of me asking the question to ginger.

tldr: dead chat, trying to get discussion/reads/pre-flip associations (OMG PRE FLIP ASSOCIATIONS ARE BAD, I know I am bad, I liked them, fuck all of you).

[Gingerape]

Yay analogies! A cop comes into a gas store and locks the door. He says...'Hey! The five people in here line up right meow! We have evidence that one of you stole a Mountain Dew! Now...I would totally point out the guy who stole the Mountain Dew. But i don't know who it is. But I can empty my pockets and tell the occifer that I totally didn't steal it and I should go free. ^^

Titus basically hurt me with that last post. That's fine. I don't ....I don't like how he wants to vote group two based off past player experience, but whatever.
I don't think the host did that on purpose. Wait! Am I in the super experienced group!? Thanks host. You think I'm super experienced ^^ I won't let you down!

What's a T/T
Oh and I meant you'd be a amnesiac that turned into a traitor. Wouldn't mafia have three people then?like one for each group? Iunno. I could be confluffed

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Yay analogies! A cop comes into a gas store and locks the door. He says...'Hey! The five people in here line up right meow! We have evidence that one of you stole a Mountain Dew! Now...I would totally point out the guy who stole the Mountain Dew. But i don't know who it is. But I can empty my pockets and tell the occifer that I totally didn't steal it and I should go free. ^^

Titus basically hurt me with that last post. That's fine. I don't ....I don't like how he wants to vote group two based off past player experience, but whatever.
I don't think the host did that on purpose. Wait! Am I in the super experienced group!? Thanks host. You think I'm super experienced ^^ I won't let you down!

What's a T/T
Oh and I meant you'd be a amnesiac that turned into a traitor. Wouldn't mafia have three people then?like one for each group? Iunno. I could be confluffed

Fair point, I concede.

Group 3 is the best group based on name, IMO, but I can see hesitation with how little resistance there is to go to group 3.

Town versus Town and I don't think me being amnesiac traitor is a world because that would mean I forgot my role just to remember my alignment, but not know who my teammates are. If this is the case, it might make sense because I would show up town to investigative which would maybe balance the isolation?

That being said, I think it is most likely that I am citizen, universal backup, or deputy with a heavy emphasis on the latter two.

[JealousTL]

Ginger's posting style is going to drive me up the wall. Titus might be onto something with Ginger trying to signal to the mafia although it is extremely obvious and guaranteed to draw a shitload of attention to them.

Agreed on all points. This reminds me of certain posters where I come from. Their mannerisms leave an unpleasant taste in my mouth, especially D1, whether they are town or not. A similar poster once got a "day pass" for D1 because they were "trolling" like this and it was within their scope, and they ended up helping town immensely in D3. That same poster did the same thing, got lynched D1, flipped scum. In short, I find that people who post like this are trying to create an image that cannot be read either way. That is not beneficial to town, and I don't like it.

[Gingerape]

Oh jealous...if you don't like me then why don't you go ahead and vote for my group? Hmm?
Well you can say you're hesitant because half of my group hasn't really showed up yet so you're waiting to get reads on them before rushing into a vote situation. That's fine.

[Calix]

1) trying to be nicer( won't last long, but trying)
2) yuki seemed like a russian trying to talk english in third person, and openly refused to answer my questions


As for the question on her? read, they were the only interaction going on. Ginger will obviously only say they are town, and I was curious to their reaction to Titus who I have a very specific read right now which I won't comment on because it would defeat the purpose of me asking the question to ginger.

tldr: dead chat, trying to get discussion/reads/pre-flip associations (OMG PRE FLIP ASSOCIATIONS ARE BAD, I know I am bad, I liked them, fuck all of you).

1. Please keep trying, if for no other reason than so I can smirk at your attempts.

My favourite, the "I has secret reads but won't reveal them yet" - I'll just note this for later.

Fair point, I concede.

Group 3 is the best group based on name, IMO, but I can see hesitation with how little resistance there is to go to group 3.

Why would the amount of resistance matter? We've established that all of the groups have 1-2 scum in them and even though I had my theory that the scum would favour the 2-mafia group because of my idea, I'm starting to think that I was barking up the wrong tree. Even in the hypothetical scenario that the 2-mafia group got chosen and MLed a town, they'd still all-but-guarantee that one of their own would be lynched tomorrow.

I haven't properly run through the numbers and I'm running on fumes right now so this might be totally wrong.

Oh jealous...if you don't like me then why don't you go ahead and vote for my group? Hmm?
Well you can say you're hesitant because half of my group hasn't really showed up yet so you're waiting to get reads on them before rushing into a vote situation. That's fine.

Scum-reading is going to be super-annoying until most of the players show up. For all I know, none of the scum have even posted yet and we just end up eating each other alive.

zzz

[Gingerape]

i think scum would definitely not pick the 2 person group since they don't get to vote in the group. It's only the people from the other groups that get to vote isn't it?
Like then you have less mafia voting...and more chance of mafia getting hit.
So they would for sure not want their group to get chosen.

Wrong color :3

[JealousTL]

Oh jealous...if you don't like me then why don't you go ahead and vote for my group? Hmm?
Well you can say you're hesitant because half of my group hasn't really showed up yet so you're waiting to get reads on them before rushing into a vote situation. That's fine.

I'm just trying to be impartial. Jumping on you from a few posts when we're less than half-way through Day 1 would be stupid because it could taint your future participation. I would rather you operate as is most comfortable to you; I have no evidence to suggest that you won't be useful given the right time/situation.

[JealousTL]

i think scum would definitely not pick the 2 person group since they don't get to vote in the group. It's only the people from the other groups that get to vote isn't it?
Like then you have less mafia voting...and more chance of mafia getting hit.
So they would for sure not want their group to get chosen.

Wrong color :3

My thinking exactly.

With the odds stacked so far against their favor, I find it hard to believe they would roll the dice on confirmed that a group has 2 scum. Remember, if we lynch a scum from the 2 scum group, we would all know that there is 1 more scum in that group, thus making it a 1-in-4 situation as opposed to the other groups' 1-in-5. The math just seems too straightforward to ignore.

[Gingerape]

Thanks for buddying wif me jealous ^^ yes. It's weird how Kalix is so convinced the opposite is true.
Maybe she's.....-gasp- ....maybe she's....a big dummie ^^ hehe
I'm kidding Cayla.
Wha. I'm done here for now. I can't wait to play with this Yuka person soon.

[Calix]

Thanks for buddying wif me jealous ^^ yes. It's weird how Kalix is so convinced the opposite is true.
Maybe she's.....-gasp- ....maybe she's....a big dummie ^^ hehe
I'm kidding Cayla.
Wha. I'm done here for now. I can't wait to play with this Yuka person soon.

Nah, I've changed my mind. I initially thought that because I had this theory that the Mafia would try to go for a N1 win, but then I realised that I was wrong and the logic about the Mafia having less vote power just reinforces that.

I should really get some sleep but I can't.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

1. Please keep trying, if for no other reason than so I can smirk at your attempts.

My favourite, the "I has secret reads but won't reveal them yet" - I'll just note this for later.

This strikes me as odd. I asked someone a question to get information, and you expect me to give them the answer I am looking for?

Not to mention this is coming from someone who is notorious for never explaining town reads because they do not believe that is the objective of the game.

[Yukitaka Oni]

Wait for the game the whole day, fall asleep when this game started
Host troll me v(o.o(<

[Titus]

Do you think mafia would breadcrumb so openly like that?

If you believe this could be a real breadcrumb, and you believe I am part of the hidden mechanic, am I likely to be town then?

traitor+amnesiac would mean mafia only has a working team of 2 right now, and I do not see how that would be the case.

I am not going to place you as town or scum until you know which you are. I don't know enough to make any sort of informed judgment as to role balance.

[Yukitaka Oni]

Since Calix is op too strong

-vote Group 2

[Titus]

1. Please keep trying, if for no other reason than so I can smirk at your attempts.

My favourite, the "I has secret reads but won't reveal them yet" - I'll just note this for later.



Why would the amount of resistance matter? We've established that all of the groups have 1-2 scum in them and even though I had my theory that the scum would favour the 2-mafia group because of my idea, I'm starting to think that I was barking up the wrong tree. Even in the hypothetical scenario that the 2-mafia group got chosen and MLed a town, they'd still all-but-guarantee that one of their own would be lynched tomorrow.

I haven't properly run through the numbers and I'm running on fumes right now so this might be totally wrong.



Scum-reading is going to be super-annoying until most of the players show up. For all I know, none of the scum have even posted yet and we just end up eating each other alive.

zzz

Assuming the likely assumption of even split scum, scum would still have a preference based on removing skilled townies or easier mislynches or both.

[Titus]

My thinking exactly.

With the odds stacked so far against their favor, I find it hard to believe they would roll the dice on confirmed that a group has 2 scum. Remember, if we lynch a scum from the 2 scum group, we would all know that there is 1 more scum in that group, thus making it a 1-in-4 situation as opposed to the other groups' 1-in-5. The math just seems too straightforward to ignore.

That group is also the easiest to blitz win in.

[JealousTL]

That group is also the easiest to blitz win in.

Very true. How should we preemptively plan for this possibility?

My thoughts are as follows: If we lynch from Group 3 (for example) and do not hit scum, it becomes 2-2. That's game lose for us, right? We have to be very careful with where and why we go to a certain group, it seems.

[JealousTL]

Now that I think about it, if Group 3 is in fact the 2 scum group and they blitzed the vote, it would be a strong strategy. The empirical chances of lynching town are 3/5, therefore the chance of scum winning D1/N1 is hypothetically around 60%. I will wait for counter-arguments and etc. before casting my vote, but it seems to me this G3 bandwagon came on too easily and therefore should be reversed.

[Calix]

This strikes me as odd. I asked someone a question to get information, and you expect me to give them the answer I am looking for?

Not to mention this is coming from someone who is notorious for never explaining town reads because they do not believe that is the objective of the game.

I was making a comment on what you were doing, not insinuating anything about your intentions or passing judgment. I'm aware that it's a common thing that players do.

I don't explain my town-reads much because focusing on town-reads in a game where scum have to be eliminated = stupid. Obviously there are exceptions to this rule but comparing it to "I won't share my reasoning (yet) because I want to see their reaction" is inaccurate as I don't hide my reasoning to see how people react.

Since Calix is op too strong

-vote Group 2

This is 100% a meta-based read so it'll sound retarded but this makes me think Yuki could be scum. And the only reason I think that is because the "Calix OP" line is something he's said on two separate occasions where I was town and did well with lynching/ killing scum. (e.g., the Return to Normalcy game where I lynched Executioner D1 and killed a Mafia N1 as a Bodyguard and he made a similar comment on D2)

So with that in mind, the fact that his first instinct is to try and take me out makes me think he's scared that I'll do the same here.

He's also voting for the group that I am in after the group that he is in is in the lead so possible OMGUS element there. This is a flimsy-ass point, I know, but it's not like he commented on anything else so whatever.

Very true. How should we preemptively plan for this possibility?

My thoughts are as follows: If we lynch from Group 3 (for example) and do not hit scum, it becomes 2-2. That's game lose for us, right? We have to be very careful with where and why we go to a certain group, it seems.

I don't know if 2v2 parity makes us lose because surely the Mafia could just avoid the 2-scum group on D1, night-kill a townie from the 2-scum group and win by Night 1, right?

I asked and apparently it's in the setup thread but I can't find where this is explained. If someone could help out, it would be good.

[Calix]

Now that I think about it, if Group 3 is in fact the 2 scum group and they blitzed the vote, it would be a strong strategy. The empirical chances of lynching town are 3/5, therefore the chance of scum winning D1/N1 is hypothetically around 60%. I will wait for counter-arguments and etc. before casting my vote, but it seems to me this G3 bandwagon came on too easily and therefore should be reversed.

The only real counter-argument is the fact that like, 9/15 players have turned up iirc and the odds of all 4 scum having turned up yet are slim.

It has 4 votes at the moment and we're 12 hours in. Looking at the list, 4/5 of Group 3's players have turned up compared to like, 2/5 for Group 1, so for now I think it's the best choice. If everyone comes flooding in later than I'll reconsider but if activity remains low then I definitely think we should stick with that.

Given that I started the Group 3 vote, I know that it's not scum-motivated. What do you make of the individual voters on the train?

[Yukitaka Oni]

I was making a comment on what you were doing, not insinuating anything about your intentions or passing judgment. I'm aware that it's a common thing that players do.

I don't explain my town-reads much because focusing on town-reads in a game where scum have to be eliminated = stupid. Obviously there are exceptions to this rule but comparing it to "I won't share my reasoning (yet) because I want to see their reaction" is inaccurate as I don't hide my reasoning to see how people react.



This is 100% a meta-based read so it'll sound retarded but this makes me think Yuki could be scum. And the only reason I think that is because the "Calix OP" line is something he's said on two separate occasions where I was town and did well with lynching/ killing scum. (e.g., the Return to Normalcy game where I lynched Executioner D1 and killed a Mafia N1 as a Bodyguard and he made a similar comment on D2)

So with that in mind, the fact that his first instinct is to try and take me out makes me think he's scared that I'll do the same here.

He's also voting for the group that I am in after the group that he is in is in the lead so possible OMGUS element there. This is a flimsy-ass point, I know, but it's not like he commented on anything else so whatever.



I don't know if 2v2 parity makes us lose because surely the Mafia could just avoid the 2-scum group on D1, night-kill a townie from the 2-scum group and win by Night 1, right?

I asked and apparently it's in the setup thread but I can't find where this is explained. If someone could help out, it would be good.

Come on Calix, you maybe not a town this time b)o.o)^!

[Calix]

Also correct me if I made an error somewhere, but say if we chose a 1-scum group and lynched that scum.

That would activate the random assignment of the remaining group players to the other group, right?

When all members of the mafia are lynched from a group, the remaining members of that will join the remaining group(s) as evenly as possible but will be random what players will join what group where applicable.

Unless I'm missing something, wouldn't all of those remaining members be confirmed as town? Because the assignment of players to other groups can only happen when all of the scum in a given group are dead.

Best-case scenario isn't going for the 2-scum group, it's going for a 1-scum group, lynching correctly and having the remaining townies enter the other two groups which thus makes it harder for scum to gain majority in a given group and means that 4 players are removed from POE.

I mean, this assumes that we become god-tier scum-hunters within 48-odd hours even though we don't really know each other, but it's definitely possible.

[Calix]

Come on Calix, you maybe not a town this time b)o.o)^!

Quality post. I liked the part where you crawled out and reactively scum-read me for making a meta point.

This was no doubt followed up by you flawlessly countering my argument before offering your incisive opinions on the events in the thread.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Technically I started the group 3 train, but my vote fucked up.

@yuki what are your reads so far.

[Yukitaka Oni]

Quality post. I liked the part where you crawled out and reactively scum-read me for making a meta point.

This was no doubt followed up by you flawlessly countering my argument before offering your incisive opinions on the events in the thread.

Nah, take it easy Calix, I didn't say you are scum. It's just we maybe not on the same side this time, well....not on the same group at least <(o.o(v

[Yukitaka Oni]

Technically I started the group 3 train, but my vote fucked up.

@yuki what are your reads so far.

Catching up reading and....still confuse a bit about this (group vote mechanics) ~(o.o)~

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Also correct me if I made an error somewhere, but say if we chose a 1-scum group and lynched that scum.

That would activate the random assignment of the remaining group players to the other group, right?



Unless I'm missing something, wouldn't all of those remaining members be confirmed as town? Because the assignment of players to other groups can only happen when all of the scum in a given group are dead.

Best-case scenario isn't going for the 2-scum group, it's going for a 1-scum group, lynching correctly and having the remaining townies enter the other two groups which thus makes it harder for scum to gain majority in a given group and means that 4 players are removed from POE.

I mean, this assumes that we become god-tier scum-hunters within 48-odd hours even though we don't really know each other, but it's definitely possible.

Even if we do play well on day 1, do you think we will be able to out steer the 3-4 mafia?

If the groups were labeled "1 mafia" "1 mafia" "2 mafia", do you think we get more information from interactions in a 1 mafia group or a 2 mafia?

[Yukitaka Oni]

Even if we do play well on day 1, do you think we will be able to out steer the 3-4 mafia?

If the groups were labeled "1 mafia" "1 mafia" "2 mafia", do you think we get more information from interactions in a 1 mafia group or a 2 mafia?

Eh....setup 4 Mafia and...i think the host is going to put 2-1-1 rather than 3-1-0 or 4-0-0 in the group

[Calix]

Come on Calix, you maybe not a town this time b)o.o)^!

Nah, take it easy Calix, I didn't say you are scum. It's just we maybe not on the same side this time, well....not on the same group at least <(o.o(v

Uh no, it clearly states that I'm "maybe not a town this time" - this implies that I am MAFIA because there are only two factions in the game. The fact that you've cited me as a reason to vote for my group supports my point.

Nowhere do you refer to groups. Even if you were, why would you respond to my comment to state the obvious?

Even if we do play well on day 1, do you think we will be able to out steer the 3-4 mafia?

If the groups were labeled "1 mafia" "1 mafia" "2 mafia", do you think we get more information from interactions in a 1 mafia group or a 2 mafia?

Well if we lynched correctly in the 1-scum group, that would confirm 4/11 of the town, no? Mafia would obviously not want this because it narrows them down quickly and forces them to night-kill among said confirmed townies so they would have to be proactive in the chat to avoid this happening because associative tells aren't the main thing that will find scum this game.

Said night-kills would take them until Night 4. By that point, it is very likely that the other 1-scum group would have been eliminated (this would confirm 8/11 of the town)

However, lynching correctly in the 2-scum group not only gives us a confirmed scum flip but gives us a 25% chance of lynching correctly AGAIN the following day by RNG. A chance that goes up considerably when you factor in reads, associations, etc.

Due to the whole "4 confirmed town" thing, I think a 1-scum lynch is more informative. Too much to lose for scum to sit back and do nothing imo.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Uh no, it clearly states that I'm "maybe not a town this time" - this implies that I am MAFIA because there are only two factions in the game. The fact that you've cited me as a reason to vote for my group supports my point.

Nowhere do you refer to groups. Even if you were, why would you respond to my comment to state the obvious?



Well if we lynched correctly in the 1-scum group, that would confirm 4/11 of the town, no? Mafia would obviously not want this because it narrows them down quickly and forces them to night-kill among said confirmed townies so they would have to be proactive in the chat to avoid this happening because associative tells aren't the main thing that will find scum this game.

Said night-kills would take them until Night 4. By that point, it is very likely that the other 1-scum group would have been eliminated (this would confirm 8/11 of the town)

However, lynching correctly in the 2-scum group not only gives us a confirmed scum flip but gives us a 25% chance of lynching correctly AGAIN the following day by RNG. A chance that goes up considerably when you factor in reads, associations, etc.

Due to the whole "4 confirmed town" thing, I think a 1-scum lynch is more informative. Too much to lose for scum to sit back and do nothing imo.

I agree with the one mafia group if possible, the benefits are greater, and the risks are less for day 1.

I am fairly confident group 2 is NOT a 2 mafia group. I have town reads on calix and captain dictionary. This would mean either myself, spruance, or whoever the other guy in our group is mafia. If I am not night killed, learn I am town, then we have a good chance at hitting in our group on day 2.

I think the mafia in group 1 has not posted yet. Honestly I expected the mafia to pressure me for my role more than they have. This leads me to believe 1-2 of the mafia have not posted yet or a lot, or that I am mafia and they need to fucking soft claim this to me before I lynch them all lol.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Alcohol might be the worst thing ever invented. Act dumb while on it, then it wakes you up in the middle of the night, and can not go back to bed. Now a hangover. Like what am I doing with my life.

Cannn you feel the loveeeeeeee tonightttttttttttt.

SO what do we think the over/under is for RLvg's post count this game?
@JealousTL hey

[JealousTL]

I don't know if 2v2 parity makes us lose because surely the Mafia could just avoid the 2-scum group on D1, night-kill a townie from the 2-scum group and win by Night 1, right?

I asked and apparently it's in the setup thread but I can't find where this is explained. If someone could help out, it would be good.

Lynching a townie from a 3v2 group makes us lose automatically because we create 2v2, then mafia lynches 1 of the 2 remaining townies and achieves majority at the end of N1, which is why I think that it is a solid strategy for scum to push a group where they have a 60% chance of winning on D1 when reads are less concrete.

Re: "What do you make of the individual voters on the train?"

Although I am slightly WIFOM on PLZLEAVEDUCKK I am leaning town on him for now. The rest, I have simply not seen enough to make a conclusion. I like that you are making moves in this game and more or less leading at the moment, but it might be a timezone thing. Either way, I don't necessarily suspect anyone in particular at the moment given that sheeping can be endemic and thus conceal whether a person is town or scum trying to profit. I'm suspicious of the relative strength of the motion. We know as per Quick that 13 players have confirmed, so the activity measure you have brought up is in my opinion a moot point. It could be a very vocal mafia group leading the charge or a very silent one allowing an existing motion to gain traction among townies, or anywhere in between. This may be my paranoia speaking, but switching a bunch of votes could lead to things. I would be more explicit but I don't want to reveal what I think scum should do in that scenario on the off-chance that this is the case.

[Gingerape]

someone said soft!
Oh. I totally change my mind from last night. I've given it some thought and the setup pretty much 100% is a 2/1/1 mafia setup right? If there were 0 mafia in a group then they would automatically get shuffled into a new group? Correct me if I'm wrong.

This game seems like it will be only a few days long if I'm thinking correctly.

So I'll go through all the day/night one options that I'm thinking can happen:

Ok so we pick a group with one mafia and lynch him (best ^^)
That also means mafia night actions wont matter a ton. But the group will be reshuffled...giving us a group with 2 mafia and a group with one...but...we get 4 absolute trusted townmembers that we can believe in.
As well as a larger majority vote in each group.

So we pick a group with 2 mafia and lynch a mafia (second best case scenario in my opinion)
That means mafia night actions aren't an immediate threat, and our investigative roles have a longer time to find these guys. It also means there's confirmed only one mafia in each group so it'll be harder for them to get a majority.


^^

Oh...now if we pick a group with 1 mafia and lynch a town....
Well, mafia will probably try to take out a member of town at night from their 2 person group to put pressure on us or they will win by the next morning. However it gives us a good 50% shot of hitting a mafia member since it will be 2/2 tomorrow.
i feel like this is pretty much the only course of action mafia will take if they want to win quickly.

If we pick a group with 2 mafia and lynch a town~
Oh. That's game over by the morning ~<3

[JealousTL]

Alcohol might be the worst thing ever invented. Act dumb while on it, then it wakes you up in the middle of the night, and can not go back to bed. Now a hangover. Like what am I doing with my life.

Cannn you feel the loveeeeeeee tonightttttttttttt.

SO what do we think the over/under is for RLvg's post count this game?
@JealousTL hey

Hi! Just for the record, on days when I don't have a depressing amount of work to do, this time would probably be the absolute worst time to send me a shout-out. Anyway, anything in particular you wanted to discuss?

PS: Just drink a lot of water, really no way to get through it other than that IMO.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Lynching a townie from a 3v2 group makes us lose automatically because we create 2v2, then mafia lynches 1 of the 2 remaining townies and achieves majority at the end of N1, which is why I think that it is a solid strategy for scum to push a group where they have a 60% chance of winning on D1 when reads are less concrete.

Re: "What do you make of the individual voters on the train?"

Although I am slightly WIFOM on PLZLEAVEDUCKK I am leaning town on him for now. The rest, I have simply not seen enough to make a conclusion. I like that you are making moves in this game and more or less leading at the moment, but it might be a timezone thing. Either way, I don't necessarily suspect anyone in particular at the moment given that sheeping can be endemic and thus conceal whether a person is town or scum trying to profit. I'm suspicious of the relative strength of the motion. We know as per Quick that 13 players have confirmed, so the activity measure you have brought up is in my opinion a moot point. It could be a very vocal mafia group leading the charge or a very silent one allowing an existing motion to gain traction among townies, or anywhere in between. This may be my paranoia speaking, but switching a bunch of votes could lead to things. I would be more explicit but I don't want to reveal what I think scum should do in that scenario on the off-chance that this is the case.

hahaahahahaa putting mafia, group, vocal in the same sentence on this site is a real knee slapper. sc2mafia meta 101, scum lurk and waste our time.

Also I am going to reiterate this again, You can NOT have a town lean on me. IT IS ACTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE. The one way it would be possible is if you scum read certain people and think they are against me, thus making me town barring any distancing/bussing. However, your post mentioned that you do not suspect anyone too heavily yet. I do not know my alignment, and we have already agreed that If I am lying, I am only lying as MAFIA!!

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Hi! Just for the record, on days when I don't have a depressing amount of work to do, this time would probably be the absolute worst time to send me a shout-out. Anyway, anything in particular you wanted to discuss?

PS: Just drink a lot of water, really no way to get through it other than that IMO.

I will discuss anything with anyone, you will notice I will be on the thread most of the time with minimal sleep. The site has a lot of people who view the thread then leave, so I like to just ping them out to encourage interaction.

I have read team liquid games, so I can see why this may be a bit different for you.