S-FM 209: Surreptitious: The Game of Spies

[Calix]

Lynching a townie from a 3v2 group makes us lose automatically because we create 2v2, then mafia lynches 1 of the 2 remaining townies and achieves majority at the end of N1, which is why I think that it is a solid strategy for scum to push a group where they have a 60% chance of winning on D1 when reads are less concrete.

Re: "What do you make of the individual voters on the train?"

Although I am slightly WIFOM on PLZLEAVEDUCKK I am leaning town on him for now. The rest, I have simply not seen enough to make a conclusion. I like that you are making moves in this game and more or less leading at the moment, but it might be a timezone thing. Either way, I don't necessarily suspect anyone in particular at the moment given that sheeping can be endemic and thus conceal whether a person is town or scum trying to profit. I'm suspicious of the relative strength of the motion. We know as per Quick that 13 players have confirmed, so the activity measure you have brought up is in my opinion a moot point. It could be a very vocal mafia group leading the charge or a very silent one allowing an existing motion to gain traction among townies, or anywhere in between. This may be my paranoia speaking, but switching a bunch of votes could lead to things. I would be more explicit but I don't want to reveal what I think scum should do in that scenario on the off-chance that this is the case.

Nah, I usually like to lead and be in charge. I am actually being less vocal/ demanding than usual (due to not wanting to clog the thread and make it hard for people to catch up, RL commitments, etc) - it's just how I operate.

You make a good point about the 13/15 confirmed-sign players.

Also you are self-aware about the possibility but I can't help but read this part as townie paranoia.

hahaahahahaa putting mafia, group, vocal in the same sentence on this site is a real knee slapper. sc2mafia meta 101, scum lurk and waste our time.

Given that this isn't going to be a long-term game, having the scum choose to lurk would ruin the entire point of the game. I imagine that Quick would replace/ extend the day/ modkill as necessary so that all factions have a fair chance. It's not fair for town to end up turning on each other because the scum couldn't be arsed to turn up.

"all I did was lead a mislynch against Quick in D1"

Doing the fucking Lords work. You are honestly the hero town needs.

I am willing to switch from group 3 to my group to vote between slayer and spruance. If town decides they want to yolo it on me, we can uh... discuss that...

lmao

Although I don't wish to switch, I can meta-read Spruance to an extent, at least. I have no idea about Slayer, but apparently he's a mod player - have you played with him before? What is his playstyle like?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Nah, I usually like to lead and be in charge. I am actually being less vocal/ demanding than usual (due to not wanting to clog the thread and make it hard for people to catch up, RL commitments, etc) - it's just how I operate.

You make a good point about the 13/15 confirmed-sign players.

Also you are self-aware about the possibility but I can't help but read this part as townie paranoia.



Given that this isn't going to be a long-term game, having the scum choose to lurk would ruin the entire point of the game. I imagine that Quick would replace/ extend the day/ modkill as necessary so that all factions have a fair chance. It's not fair for town to end up turning on each other because the scum couldn't be arsed to turn up.



lmao

Although I don't wish to switch, I can meta-read Spruance to an extent, at least. I have no idea about Slayer, but apparently he's a mod player - have you played with him before? What is his playstyle like?

The name has come up several times, but slayer is a generic name and could be a totally different person. Mod players are usually bad at handling pressure, so I think by pressuring him, and your meta read on spruance, we should be able to get a hit on day 1 from our group.

Potential problem if we town read them both as that means I am the most likely to be a hit, or if you are mafia and having a strong day 1 and then we will probably miss lynch twice in our group.

also PSA: early game reads for me flip on a dime, and while I have some players as extremely strong town and am not considering them for lynches, events in the game, even if they seem to not relate to that person, could cause me to do a complete 180 on them.

[Calix]

The name has come up several times, but slayer is a generic name and could be a totally different person. Mod players are usually bad at handling pressure, so I think by pressuring him, and your meta read on spruance, we should be able to get a hit on day 1 from our group.

Potential problem if we town read them both as that means I am the most likely to be a hit, or if you are mafia and having a strong day 1 and then we will probably miss lynch twice in our group.

also PSA: early game reads for me flip on a dime, and while I have some players as extremely strong town and am not considering them for lynches, events in the game, even if they seem to not relate to that person, could cause me to do a complete 180 on them.

Spruance has a very...unique...meta, to put it nicely. Only seen him as scum once so I have to hope that he'll play the same way as it was a recent game. (Politico)

While we're on meta, I'd like to claim. I'm an important Town Power Role, otherwise known as Calix. I'm the same size as a waste bin and I'm just as full of shit. I'm the sort who posts/ contributes a lot regardless of alignment. Typically I'm aggressive, stubborn, and impulsive in how I play, have a bad tendency to tunnel and disregard town tells when pushing my scum-reads because I rarely jot them down and then I forget about them. I'd like to avoid that this game as it ended up badly last time.

Duck can opine on how he views me. I think I'm pretty decent at self-awareness but I could always be better.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Spruance has a very...unique...meta, to put it nicely. Only seen him as scum once so I have to hope that he'll play the same way as it was a recent game. (Politico)

While we're on meta, I'd like to claim. I'm an important Town Power Role, otherwise known as Calix. I'm the same size as a waste bin and I'm just as full of shit. I'm the sort who posts/ contributes a lot regardless of alignment. Typically I'm aggressive, stubborn, and impulsive in how I play, have a bad tendency to tunnel and disregard town tells when pushing my scum-reads because I rarely jot them down and then I forget about them. I'd like to avoid that this game as it ended up badly last time.

Duck can opine on how he views me. I think I'm pretty decent at self-awareness but I could always be better.

Your play is fine, I am telling you if you put more emphasis on building a town circle you would be a top tier player.

I feel making a tight town circle for reference would help you when your tunneling was wrong, so rather then being at square one, you have a town circle to go off of.

You seem to town shield scum in recent games, and tunnel on towns. I think a town circle would have made you flip on either your town shielding the scum, or your tunneling the towns.

also I didnt mean to actually vote group 1

-vote group 3

[JealousTL]

Nah, I usually like to lead and be in charge. I am actually being less vocal/ demanding than usual (due to not wanting to clog the thread and make it hard for people to catch up, RL commitments, etc) - it's just how I operate.

You make a good point about the 13/15 confirmed-sign players.

Also you are self-aware about the possibility but I can't help but read this part as townie paranoia.

I can respect both what you claim to be your standard approach and why you are not doing it as vehemently right now. I hope that we both stay in this game further so I can read you better/learn from you. I feel that the more vocal players tend to be the better players, because vocal players who suck get lynched early and learn the wrong lessons from their mistakes (in contrast to the generally accepted vocal=town hypothesis).

Townie paranoia is, as always for me, a definite possibility. However, from what I recall at this juncture, the strongest supporting evidence for voting G3 has been that vets are familiar with the players within, and that therefore there are strong players there. Correct me if I am mistaken. This by definition means that scum could be trying to silence or put under defensive pressure the strong players that would otherwise be working to solve the game as opposed to protect their own necks. This also still carries the possibility of a free 60% D1 win condition for scum, if scum has already voted. You've accepted that my 13/15 comment is a valid point; if we pessimistically assume that the other 2 players are still MIA, that means the 4 votes (going by your word here) for G3 make up nearly 1/3rd of the confirmed active player list, and a much greater fraction of the actively posting population. It can't be written off, hence my paranoia.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I can respect both what you claim to be your standard approach and why you are not doing it as vehemently right now. I hope that we both stay in this game further so I can read you better/learn from you. I feel that the more vocal players tend to be the better players, because vocal players who suck get lynched early and learn the wrong lessons from their mistakes (in contrast to the generally accepted vocal=town hypothesis).

Townie paranoia is, as always for me, a definite possibility. However, from what I recall at this juncture, the strongest supporting evidence for voting G3 has been that vets are familiar with the players within, and that therefore there are strong players there. Correct me if I am mistaken. This by definition means that scum could be trying to silence or put under defensive pressure the strong players that would otherwise be working to solve the game as opposed to protect their own necks. This also still carries the possibility of a free 60% D1 win condition for scum, if scum has already voted. You've accepted that my 13/15 comment is a valid point; if we pessimistically assume that the other 2 players are still MIA, that means the 4 votes (going by your word here) for G3 make up nearly 1/3rd of the confirmed active player list, and a much greater fraction of the actively posting population. It can't be written off, hence my paranoia.

I read all three groups as reasonably balanced. If mafia is voting for a group based on player names it would be because the scum in that group are unlikely to be lynched. For example, our group has calix and myself who both know that we are not going to get lynched barring something drastic. It does not even have to do with our ability to play the game, but I believe due to the site meta of activity = town ( false obviously). If we have two mafia in group 3, but I am the solo mafia in group 2, then I would tell the mafia to pick group 2 because I know I am never getting lynched.

Because of this I think it is more likely mafia is going to go for a group where their "star" players are and will be able to carry their team. Scum do not want to come out and put the spotlight on a strong player when they know they are town because that strong town play will show easily, and then good luck risking the night kill with likely bodyguards in the setup.

[JealousTL]

You both make good points. WIFOM tells me, almost too good. I will leave my vote parked where it is, go to sleep, and hopefully wake up to a clearer tomorrow-that-is-actually-max-7-hours-from-now because i am getting slammed right now. Thank you for the discussion, it has been a refreshingly pleasant D1 for me for the most part.

[Calix]

I can respect both what you claim to be your standard approach and why you are not doing it as vehemently right now. I hope that we both stay in this game further so I can read you better/learn from you. I feel that the more vocal players tend to be the better players, because vocal players who suck get lynched early and learn the wrong lessons from their mistakes (in contrast to the generally accepted vocal=town hypothesis).

Townie paranoia is, as always for me, a definite possibility. However, from what I recall at this juncture, the strongest supporting evidence for voting G3 has been that vets are familiar with the players within, and that therefore there are strong players there. Correct me if I am mistaken. This by definition means that scum could be trying to silence or put under defensive pressure the strong players that would otherwise be working to solve the game as opposed to protect their own necks. This also still carries the possibility of a free 60% D1 win condition for scum, if scum has already voted. You've accepted that my 13/15 comment is a valid point; if we pessimistically assume that the other 2 players are still MIA, that means the 4 votes (going by your word here) for G3 make up nearly 1/3rd of the confirmed active player list, and a much greater fraction of the actively posting population. It can't be written off, hence my paranoia.

NU, RLVG and Kovath aren't terrible, but you're dealing with the best ;) However RLVG has been doing his damnedest to impersonate ika in recent games while Kovath is busy for the next few days so that makes me wonder wherever they'll even turn up to respond to being voted for.

I don't want to speculate too much on the group choices until other players turn up and respond/ vote, so I'll cut that short.

NU/ Kovath are also more vocal players usually so I wouldn't agree with your theory because I don't think them being scum-read would deter them much FME.