S-FM: THT: The Wrath of Lady Death

[Firebringer]

You do forget, if we misslynch today, if 2 other towns die, then mafia and LD would have majority right?

Lady Death died last night Mike.....

[Firebringer]

I also wonder who the crier is. Simply spammed his keyboard but still made the effort to post it.

Or its some spooky message, don't think so though.

Its a hidden message that you can decode, it actually identifies the crier.
I think he is hoping the cult won't recognize it though.

[Mikecall]

Lady Death died last night Mike.....

And you forget about tailor -.-, Lady Death is immune to cult kill.

[MattZed]

You do forget, if we misslynch today, if 2 other towns die, then mafia and LD would have majority right?

Good thing we're going for the scummy targets!

[Firebringer]

And you forget about tailor -.-, Lady Death is immune to cult kill.

Calix was killed by Widower then.

[Mikecall]

Good thing we're going for the scummy targets!

Good your here, now which post was I referencing from thorn before matt?

[RLVG]

The voice of deathworlds would have encouraged us to kill Firebringer, MattZed, me, and SuperJack. I might have missed someone.

And yzb

Well, I do agree with Firebringer, MattZed and YZB being scummy.

I was asking if you caught a Fire slip, since he knew who killed who. Its pretty damning.

Yepp, I called out on him that he knows who was killed specifically.

The deathworlds train was awful and I was trying to get a better one.

Yeah, except that Firebringer is out of question, huh.

The only time people were active enough to get another train going was the last 3 hours. GameFreak was mostly afk, Darkness hates voting, Shifty needed replacing, Calix and DW were too busy tunneling each other, etc.

Don't forget Firebringer.

[B]Everyone please answer these questions.[/vote]

HIGHLIGHT FOR EMBARASSENGI

Also, good questions. Lurkers would be a legit guess.

Lynch avoiders:
secondpassing and yzb were both interested in starting clearly pointless trains and not putting their votes where it mattered. RLVG took a while to join any train but his one-man crusade against me. Shifty lurked the thread at end of day a lot but didn't see the need to get involved.

There was a lack of momentum on you and remained that way for a loong while. You're still being subtle on Firebringer, oddly enough.

As for Shifty, he was a lurker, barely cared, didn't want to get involved and got replaced. Should we think of him as a Citizen, or a null read reset for the replaced SuperJack?

Calix died, flipping lady death, and had a last will claiming widower. This is a massive contradiction to like everything. But first a few quick points.
- She can't actually be lady death, or she wouldn't have been able to be nightkilled. Meaning she must have been tailored.
- This would imply one of two things:

1) She was tailed but not cult-attacked (touched by LD)
2) She was tailed and night-attacked.

Now, both of these possibilities are wildly unlikely anyway. Let's begin by considering 2: (sorry lol)

Why the fuck would you take such a massive gamble that the healer won't be on Calix? She was probably the most town-read person in the game, and with a lack of other deductions the healer can make on d1, the healer was likely to have gone with the most town-read person to be safe, ANYWAY. Furthermore, why the fuck would you tailor her to be LD, if you're gonna nightkill her in such a manner? That's a retarded move because it's going to be immediately obvious she was tailored when she says in her lw: "lol guys I was x role!" If you want to take out the strongest town, you'd just NK her and not bother wasting such an obvious tailoring on her.

Let's consider 1:

she was tailored and not NKed? Why the fuck would tailor just tailor a random person like that, who they're not gonna nightkill? And isn't it a wild coincidence that the person who was tailored was the person who died?

None of this makes any sense. I might be a retard, but I can't think of a genuine hypothesis to explain this.

Do tailorings last forever?

If tailorings do wear off, will they use up a charge anyway if they fail?

1. You ask about Tailoring lasting forever, which has been asnwered multiple times.
2. You COMPLETELY IGNORE the 3rd option that Widow can be the one to kill Lady, and the Lady simply had a bullshit LW to confuse everyone as sweet revenge.

Mattzed: What really makes me suspicious of him is certain night actions that have taken place. The night action situation rings of Mattzed.

Gamefreak: To be frank, I barely remember his posts.

RLVG No fucking clue.

Firebringer: If he's scum, he's fooled me. I really feel like he's town this game.

I cleaned it a bit to what I felt were the most relevant to read from YZB.

MattZed is scummy and the night actions rings of MattZed. 'K, vote him then.

Gamefreak is completely ignored.

I'M FUCKING NEUTRAL

Firebringer is 100% town in YZB's viewpoint, 'K.

[GameFreak]

Mike feels neither very scum or very town to me. None of his posts stand out. I couldn't say.

I still find Yzb, Toadette and Matt scummier than him.
I just feel that if i start a pressurevote on yzb he simply wont say anything meaningful again.

[yzb25]

Good thing we're going for the scummy targets!

True.

-vote Mattzed

<3

[Mikecall]

Calix was killed by Widower then.

You really think widower, was very lucky in killing Lady Death overall?

[RLVG]

One thing is for sure though, either if Calix was tailored or if she was bullshit claiming being killed by the Widow...

She's not town. She was one of the neutrals, which helps us to figure out a number.
Here's a strange theory though. Is there a chance that Spruance wasn't Detective? He was a rather curious kill.

[Mikecall]

I rather stick with the clues that Calix was killed by Lady Death or cult and being tailored since those 2 where the most likely to happen.

[RLVG]

You really think widower, was very lucky in killing Lady Death overall?

If I was the Widow, I would attempt to kill right away because I would need to fulfill the secondary win condition anyway.
Jester's fun, Survivor's "walk in the park".

[Mikecall]

One thing is for sure though, either if Calix was tailored or if she was bullshit claiming being killed by the Widow...

She's not town. She was one of the neutrals, which helps us to figure out a number.
Here's a strange theory though. Is there a chance that Spruance wasn't Detective? He was a rather curious kill.

It was an interesting concept when he first appeared as detective, but being a tailored target by being killed by LD or cult, is a strange theory overall.

[GameFreak]

Yeah would a widower really shoot N1 ? Seems very weird to me tbh.
I can see Calix being widower but the whole LW was trolly. Still no reason to lie ?
But that would mean the tailor made Calix LD and they killed her aswell.
This seems so risky to me from a scum perspective. You send 2 of your cult to the same person.
If the detective was on either we would have one, why take the risk. For somebody who would be under scrutiny either way tomorrow ?

[RLVG]

Don't forget that the Lady can kill the same kill target as the Cult, and there's a Healer who can heal targets.

So here's a strange theory :
Cult killed the Detective and tailored him.
Widow killed Lady.
Lady killed the now fake Detective, OR had the target healed.

If I was Cult, I'd tailor the night kill as a Detective because that person is in fact the most powerful TPR and by having someone flip as Detective, the credibility fades on a claim.
If I was Lady, I'd make a bullshit claim on the Last Will just to give town an extra dose of despair.
The worst thing is that he didn't have a Last Will, so for all we know - he might actually be the Widow in question lol.

/discuss

[RLVG]

Cult killed the Detective and tailored him.

I ment Spruance, not Detective, in this particular sentence.

[RLVG]

If Spruance is in fact the Widow and the Lady is Calix, then we're in an extremely good position!

[Firebringer]

RLVG, are you just playing your scummy town persona?

[GameFreak]

With the tailor there are just so many possibilities, i also thought that as a widower it might be easier to kill N1.
Jester is an easy role to play imo.

Or the cult tailored Calix and attacked Spruance ?
I just find it hard to believe spruance was actively targetted.

[RLVG]

RLVG, are you just playing your scummy town persona?

Do tell why I'm scummy, lol.

Or the cult tailored Calix and attacked Spruance ?

Did the Cult know that Calix would be killed? Don't forget that the Lady has RANDOMIZED GROUP kills.

[Firebringer]

Do tell why I'm scummy, lol.



Did the Cult know that Calix would be killed? Don't forget that the Lady has RANDOMIZED GROUP kills.

I think I explained what makes you neutral, but some aspects of your play could be from town.

Though honestly, its hard to see some of your motivations.

[GameFreak]

Lady can cut her losses to 50/50. But yeah cult couldn't have known she would die, i know its a stretch but it could be possible they simply got lucky.

[GameFreak]

I think Spruance really was detective and thats why he played so garbage D1, to not get any attention.
That being said would a widower make a legit last will, i think Calix would.

[GameFreak]

Lady Death died last night Mike.....

Also Fire , for somebody who spends a long time examining posts and taking notes.
This really suprised me from you to instantly jump to that conclusion.

[yzb25]

1. You ask about Tailoring lasting forever, which has been asnwered multiple times.
2. You COMPLETELY IGNORE the 3rd option that Widow can be the one to kill Lady, and the Lady simply had a bullshit LW to confuse everyone as sweet revenge.

1. Oops :3
2. That would imply LD or the mafia abstained from a night kill, which leads to even more weird shit that must have happened, as well as being rather unlikely anyway.

______________________________

Now, as I explained in the post RLVG just replied to, the mafia would have to be really stupid / insane to attack Calix and tailor her like that.

This leaves the other possibility - that she was tailored, but then lady death'd by pure chance.

If mafia tailored Calix, they were planning on killing Calix. Obviously nightkilling her would make it obvious that she isn't Lady Death, so they must have meant to lynch her.

The fact that they chose to Tailor her as Lady Death implies that the mafia were planning pushing a lynch on Calix for the mislynch of Deathworlds.

This is a really difficult thing to make happen, because she was being townread hard regardless of if she mislynched. Furthermore, the lyncher would also have to have the charisma to convince the town that the bitter lw screaming "I TOLD YOU I WASN'T LADY DEATH!!!" was just an attempt to fool the town in revenge, rather than a genuine attempt by Calix to inform the town of Calix's true role. The mafia would also likely have to start abstaining from Night Kills to keep the 1 death per night accurate.

I'd immediately discount many players in this game as being behind such a crazy idea, if the theory is true (I can't think of any other reason they'd Tailor Calix as Lady Death).

yzb25/GameFreak/Mikecall/Secondpassing/RLVG/Shifty-Superjack <-- simply because they lack the activity and/or persuasive skills this game to make such a lynch happen.

That leaves Firebringer/Toadette/DB/Mattzed

Toadette wouldn't try something so fucking mad. Neither would DB

This leaves Firebringer and Mattzed. And I'd be inclined to wager Mattzed, as FB himself played a big role in the DW lynch and was very pro-Calix (so it would be difficult for FB to suddenly go against his past personality and get Calix lynched).

So that leaves Mattzed.

Thoughts?

[MattZed]

True.

-vote Mattzed

<3

lol my train is yzb and an OMGUS vote.

[Firebringer]

Also Fire , for somebody who spends a long time examining posts and taking notes.
This really suprised me from you to instantly jump to that conclusion.

I still have not fully examined the setup.

[yzb25]

Don't forget that the Lady can kill the same kill target as the Cult, and there's a Healer who can heal targets.

So here's a strange theory :
Cult killed the Detective and tailored him.
Widow killed Lady.
Lady killed the now fake Detective, OR had the target healed.

If I was Cult, I'd tailor the night kill as a Detective because that person is in fact the most powerful TPR and by having someone flip as Detective, the credibility fades on a claim.
If I was Lady, I'd make a bullshit claim on the Last Will just to give town an extra dose of despair.
The worst thing is that he didn't have a Last Will, so for all we know - he might actually be the Widow in question lol.

/discuss

I am 100% sure the Widower didn't night kill last night, for reasons that are far too secret to disclose. Pls don't analyze this hinting for the rest of the world to see and go with it?

[GameFreak]

@ yzb i came to pretty much the same conclusion. It must've been luck.
It would also mean LD hit the widower.
But that would mean that cult hit the detective and LD hit the widower, those are some almost impossible odds.
The other options is that healer/priest did their job though.
Which we should know come tomorrow ?

[SuperJack]

Spruance is obviously a real detective. His amateur game start screams it.

[GameFreak]

I still have not fully examined the setup.

Its a pretty bad excuse to not know what cult does

[MattZed]

1. Oops :3
2. That would imply LD or the mafia abstained from a night kill, which leads to even more weird shit that must have happened, as well as being rather unlikely anyway.

______________________________

Now, as I explained in the post RLVG just replied to, the mafia would have to be really stupid / insane to attack Calix and tailor her like that.

This leaves the other possibility - that she was tailored, but then lady death'd by pure chance.

If mafia tailored Calix, they were planning on killing Calix. Obviously nightkilling her would make it obvious that she isn't Lady Death, so they must have meant to lynch her.

The fact that they chose to Tailor her as Lady Death implies that the mafia were planning pushing a lynch on Calix for the mislynch of Deathworlds.

This is a really difficult thing to make happen, because she was being townread hard regardless of if she mislynched. Furthermore, the lyncher would also have to have the charisma to convince the town that the bitter lw screaming "I TOLD YOU I WASN'T LADY DEATH!!!" was just an attempt to fool the town in revenge, rather than a genuine attempt by Calix to inform the town of Calix's true role. The mafia would also likely have to start abstaining from Night Kills to keep the 1 death per night accurate.

I'd immediately discount many players in this game as being behind such a crazy idea, if the theory is true (I can't think of any other reason they'd Tailor Calix as Lady Death).

yzb25/GameFreak/Mikecall/Secondpassing/RLVG/Shifty-Superjack <-- simply because they lack the activity and/or persuasive skills this game to make such a lynch happen.

That leaves Firebringer/Toadette/DB/Mattzed

Toadette wouldn't try something so fucking mad. Neither would DB

This leaves Firebringer and Mattzed. And I'd be inclined to wager Mattzed, as FB himself played a big role in the DW lynch and was very pro-Calix (so it would be difficult for FB to suddenly go against his past personality and get Calix lynched).

So that leaves Mattzed.

Thoughts?

You're accusing me of being scum because you've convinced yourself mafia tailored Calix with the intention of leading a mislynch today and letting their NK flip normally?

Why are you so sure of this?

Your argument is "MattZed is the only player active and crazy enough to try leading a mislynch on someone who was just tailored." Wat.

[MattZed]

Spruance is obviously a real detective. His amateur game start screams it.

Strong townread on the dead?

[yzb25]

@ yzb i came to pretty much the same conclusion. It must've been luck.
It would also mean LD hit the widower.
But that would mean that cult hit the detective and LD hit the widower, those are some almost impossible odds.
The other options is that healer/priest did their job though.
Which we should know come tomorrow ?

Lol whatever happened screams impossible odds. If two cits die, there were impossible odds, if the healer is killed by maf and priest is killed by LD, there were impossible odds, exc.

[GameFreak]

You're accusing me of being scum because you've convinced yourself mafia tailored Calix with the intention of leading a mislynch today and letting their NK flip normally?

Why are you so sure of this?

Your argument is "MattZed is the only player active and crazy enough to try leading a mislynch on someone who was just tailored." Wat.

Yeah for somebody who loves "reason" this much. It also struck me as the weirdest excuse. Together with his 100% sure widower didn't kill post.

[yzb25]

You're accusing me of being scum because you've convinced yourself mafia tailored Calix with the intention of leading a mislynch today and letting their NK flip normally?

Why are you so sure of this?

Your argument is "MattZed is the only player active and crazy enough to try leading a mislynch on someone who was just tailored." Wat.

Because I explored all the other possibilities. This is the only one that seems plausible, hun.

[SuperJack]

Question. If Calix isn't tailored. What is the point of her constructively lying in her last will?
It helps her 0.

[yzb25]

Question. If Calix isn't tailored. What is the point of her constructively lying in her last will?
It helps her 0.

They're arguing that it was for sadistic purposes.

[SuperJack]

They're arguing that it was for sadistic purposes.

Know what? End of the day. Calix was scum and they are now gone.

[RLVG]

They're arguing that it was for sadistic purposes.

I've done that three times as a neutral who flipped.

[yzb25]

Know what? End of the day. Calix was scum and they are now gone.

We're obviously aware of that, but that doesn't mean night action analysis is pointless :P

[yzb25]

I've done that three times as a neutral who flipped.

Of course you would. But Calix has better things to do with her time, like sip tea as she writes her application to Cambridge.

[RLVG]

However, here's a kicker :

In the Scenario that Spruance was tailored as Detective, should we request the real living Detective to claim, in order to clear up the strange mess that is Lady Death / Widow flip?

If we clear it up and Calix is Lady Death, it gives the Widow some credit to help the Town out after a claim.

[yzb25]

However, here's a kicker :

In the Scenario that Spruance was tailored as Detective, should we request the real living Detective to claim, in order to clear up the strange mess that is Lady Death / Widow flip?

If we clear it up and Calix is Lady Death, it gives the Widow some credit to help the Town out after a claim.

Giving scum a chance to claim det. in the wacko scenario that Lady Death chose not to kill / killed the exact same person as mafia and was then perfectly guessed by the Widower, despite everyone more or less townreading Calix is not something that sounds like it's worth doing.

[secondpassing]

I suppose I can do Toadette's analysis for her:

"Shit reason" voters:
Secondpassing - voted death early for tunneling and never took the vote back. Admits reasons were weak, and being quite overly apologetic about being on a mislynch train.
Mikecall - OMGUS vote; accuses deathworlds of joining the mike train to save himself, all while doing the exact same thing and not even trying to come up with good reasons.
yzb25 - caved to pressure after Calix told everyone to vote deathworlds. His vote post is literally him telling Calix "Man, you've been trying so hard. Here, take it." and sheeping.

Lynch avoiders:
secondpassing and yzb were both interested in starting clearly pointless trains and not putting their votes where it mattered. RLVG took a while to join any train but his one-man crusade against me. Shifty lurked the thread at end of day a lot but didn't see the need to get involved.

I am not apologetic, but I did tunnel. And I did not start any pointless trains. I simply started a day 1 train (always a good thing) then I LATER backed it up with reasons.

[secondpassing]

yzb25 is correct about this transparency thing.

Just because Spruance never gave a reason for his votes, that was probably the depth of his thoughts. I think it is apparent that he did not read the thread as it developed and only read it when he was on and discussing.




I think everyone else is thinking too much into this death happenings. RLVG probably has it most right:
Widower killed Calix (especially likely as deathworlds flipped citizen).
Cult killed Spruance (which was deathworlds' highest town read)
they either tailored a town or bussed their own player(?)

Lady Death (Calix) touched herself, Toadette, and Spruance(???) and got roleblocked. Or she hit the priest target and priest hasn't come to chat about it yet.


I also forget to give SuperJack sometime to think. While yesterday MattZed was one of my highest scumreads, I'm beginning to rethink it, and would like to hear from Mikecall first.

-vote Mikecall

[Mikecall]

That pressure o.o, even when I was trying to figure out a potential list for who could potentially be mafia or Lady Death initially.

[Thornholt]

Since I received and read so many complaints about my OoO being confusing. I fixed it so that even derpy-derpa-dorps can understand it now:

• Lady Death touches
• Roleblocker
• PR actions
• Night Kills
• Crier

[Toadette]

Catching up. Page 76 Darkness v Firebringer makes Fire look scum and Darkness town. Darkness is making a lot of sense and Fire is misrepping everything on that page.