S-FM 171 Suicide Still Allowed

[Toadette]

Toadette wants to lynch 1 of the power players here without reason. This really screams scum to me.

lol you definitely haven't seen me play before

[deathworlds]

lol you definitely haven't seen me play before

lol I don't need to see someone play before to see their scum posts.

[Toadette]

lol I don't need to see someone play before to see their scum posts.

K.

[Kat-chan]

OMG. WE ARE NOT NO LYNCHING

Can we like lynch the deathworlds guy? he is so obvious

[deathworlds]

Can we like lynch the deathworlds guy? he is so obvious

lol okay i guess im obvious scum gg wow

Lol obvious jester play is obvious.

[Spruance]

I agree with RLVG that we shouldn't lynch today.

We don't have to skip if you guys don't want, but nothing productive will likely result until the game has been more narrowed down.

p.s. don't suicide night 1 lmao

[Spruance]

-unvote

[Suntax]

I'm going to suicide night 1
or am I
in any case comrade suntax will live on in us all
I need to settle my kids down
give me a bit to get up to speed

[NotPanda]

Wait, so we don't lynch day 1? No suicides either? How do you suggest we clear our win condition then?

OMG. WE ARE NOT NO LYNCHING

Care to elaborate/

[RLVG]

The Vampire hasn't done anything evil yet, soooo he's not exactly evil, yet.

-unvote

[Kat-chan]

Wow what a useless day then ... If we decide not to lynch then let's somehow end the day

[NotPanda]

Could he have done anything evil yet though? :")

[RLVG]

Could he have done anything evil yet though? :")

Vampires like to rape virgins apparently, but they're no roleblocker so theory is debunked.

Maybe it's a Happy Little Vampire Alucard who realized that his father Count Dracula was bad and decided to be all good.

#vampirelivesmatter

[Suntax]

You should all die
by all i mean deathworlds and jatchan scummy as he'll you two one is prob a jest and on vamp Lord

-vote Deathworlds

[Kat-chan]

IMO deathworlds is the vamp for all the reasons I gave somewhere there Let's kill him and end this game Day 1 again :3

[Spruance]

1/8 + 1/6 + 1/3 + 1/4 (chance of suicide killing the vampire lord assuming he attacks) = 21/24 = 7/8 (.875) chance of winning.

This method is risky as if more than one person suicides we will lose, if the vampire doesn't attack night 2 our chances return to 13/24, if the jester is lynched day 2 then it will not work, or if the jester is alive in the remaining 3 and chooses not to side with the town.

If we do lynch today, and ONE person suicides night 2, our chances would be okay.

This obviously isn't a very safe method, but if you guys have someone in mind then we can vote on it I guess.

[Toadette]

1/8 + 1/6 + 1/3 + 1/4 (chance of suicide killing the vampire lord assuming he attacks) = 21/24 = 7/8 (.875) chance of winning.

This method is risky as if more than one person suicides we will lose, if the vampire doesn't attack night 2 our chances return to 13/24, if the jester is lynched day 2 then it will not work, or if the jester is alive in the remaining 3 and chooses not to side with the town.

If we do lynch today, and ONE person suicides night 2, our chances would be okay.

This obviously isn't a very safe method, but if you guys have someone in mind then we can vote on it I guess.

This is not the correct way of looking at it.

If we lynch every day with no suicides, we get at least 3 lynches. No lynch is purely random given we're voting who we think is scummy. That's 3 chances to peg the scum.

If people suicide with a low chance of killing the vampire, we get less lynch opportunities since the KPN will be higher.

Actually given there's 8 players, if we approach this strategy we could no lynch today to turn the final day into LYLO instead of MLYLO but I'd rather lynch given someone won't follow that plan and probably suicide

[Toadette]

-vote Deathworlds

[Spruance]

Well I don't see an error in it.

1/8 chance we lynch the vampire lord today. Assuming we fail, a townie will die, and the vampire lord will kill night 1.

1/6 chance we lynch the vampire lord day 2. Assuming we fail, a townie will die, and one person will suicide, and the vampire lord will kill night 2. As there would be 5 people left in the game, 4 of them are potential targets, leaving the chance that the suicided person is targeted 1/4.

If the suicider is not targeted, there are 3 people left in the game, making it a 1/3 chance to lynch the vampire lord day 3. This assumes, though, that the jester is either already dead or is willing to vote with the town.

[Toadette]

Well I don't see an error in it.

1/8 chance we lynch the vampire lord today. Assuming we fail, a townie will die, and the vampire lord will kill night 1.

1/6 chance we lynch the vampire lord day 2. Assuming we fail, a townie will die, and one person will suicide, and the vampire lord will kill night 2. As there would be 5 people left in the game, 4 of them are potential targets, leaving the chance that the suicided person is targeted 1/4.

If the suicider is not targeted, there are 3 people left in the game, making it a 1/3 chance to lynch the vampire lord day 3. This assumes, though, that the jester is either already dead or is willing to vote with the town.

Because the odds of lynching the vampire are never purely random. We get to read each others motivation. You're assuming we just random lynch every day which is not going to happen. The most random lynch would be today.

[Spruance]

So then our odds would be higher then, right?

Assuming we have a higher than random odds of lynching the vampire lord.

[Toadette]

Think of Mafia odds that we lynch the scum as more likely if we have more lynches, versus purely random odds.

More lynches is good. If we no lynched today and someone suicides, we lose a lynch opportunity.

If the vampire doesn't ever attack, we gain a lynch.

[Suntax]

Nahh I'm backing off death seems like a good guy

-unvote

[Spruance]

So are you assuming, then that a suicide is a random odd as well? Or just that coordination that involves only one person suiciding is difficult.

I'm just saying that if we do lynch day 1, our odds decrease significantly if either more than one person suicides, we lynch the jester, or no one suicides.
For these reasons it may be wise to not lynch as it leaves more margin for error, but like I said earlier I am fine either way.

[Toadette]

So are you assuming, then that a suicide is a random odd as well? Or just that coordination that involves only one person suiciding is difficult.

I'm just saying that if we do lynch day 1, our odds decrease significantly if either more than one person suicides, we lynch the jester, or no one suicides.
For these reasons it may be wise to not lynch as it leaves more margin for error, but like I said earlier I am fine either way.

How can you coordinate one person suciding without tippingnoff the scum? Too high risk

[Toadette]

Nahh I'm backing off death seems like a good guy

-unvote

-vote Suntax

[Suntax]

Comrade toadette why vote me in just a lowly depressed suicidal maniac

[Toadette]

Comrade toadette why vote me in just a lowly depressed suicidal maniac

Deal with it

[Kat-chan]

Nahh I'm backing off death seems like a good guy

-unvote

I don't wanna start a bandwagon or anything but I really do feel weird about the guy just look at his posts O.o He comes says he won't be active but that he will contribute. Then tries to look helpful on Day 1. It is too tryhard IMO. The guy really doesn't want to die

Toa-chan don't vote for this Russian the other guy is moar kill worthy

[deathworlds]

I don't wanna start a bandwagon or anything but I really do feel weird about the guy just look at his posts O.o He comes says he won't be active but that he will contribute. Then tries to look helpful on Day 1. It is too tryhard IMO. The guy really doesn't want to die

Toa-chan don't vote for this Russian the other guy is moar kill worthy

Dying day 1 on the first game after my two season hiatus would be embarrassing .

[Suntax]

I don't wanna start a bandwagon or anything but I really do feel weird about the guy just look at his posts O.o He comes says he won't be active but that he will contribute. Then tries to look helpful on Day 1. It is too tryhard IMO. The guy really doesn't want to die

Toa-chan don't vote for this Russian the other guy is moar kill worthy

Your tunneling od him with no fully developed argument since your only argument is he does not wanna get lynched like everyone else

Also in gonna omgus toadette because I can

-vote Toadette

[Kat-chan]

Yeah because Day 1 is always random af

[deathworlds]

Yeah because Day 1 is always random af

Yeah.. In the mod.

I provided good reasoning behind why toadette is prob VL.

[Toadette]

Yeah.. In the mod.

I provided good reasoning behind why toadette is prob VL.

Pfff your "reasoning" is such a stretch.

[Kat-chan]

Yeah.. In the mod.

I provided good reasoning behind why toadette is prob VL.

Yeah your legit reasoning
- She wants to get rid of powerful player (He was the vamp last game and we lynched him Day1, it was just a joke)
- She stated obvious (you did the same)

very legit IMO

[Toadette]

Yeah your legit reasoning
- She wants to get rid of powerful player (He was the vamp last game and we lynched him Day1, it was just a joke)
- She stated obvious (you did the same)

very legit IMO

You. I like you.

-vote Deathworlds

[Toadette]

Less than 6 hours. Doubt we'll get a lynch off.

I blame Mr No-Lynch king RLVG

[Toadette]

I really don't get though how we win day 1 last game

And this game no one wants to lynch?

[Kat-chan]

Well probably lynching day 1 wont change anything and if we lynch the vamp again day 1 we wont have a game again ... but without lynching its no fun!

[Kat-chan]

You. I like you.

-vote Deathworlds

You. Wanna form an alliance?

[Suntax]

Deathworlds isbloody innocent I tell you your basing your lunch on no facts

[Kat-chan]

Because there can be no facts lol

[MattZed]

IT IS NOW NIGHT 1.

Despite their previous successes, the town could not find a vampire to murder today. Frustrated, they returned home. Would anyone attempt the gambit they had prepared?

Living Players: Thornholt Kat-chan deathworlds Suntax Toadette RLVG Spruance NotPanda Dead Players: No one... yet.

Night 1 Ends at 8:00 PM PDT January 10th.

[MattZed]

IT IS NOW DAY 2.

It appears the town was not as lucky tonight. When they awoke, three of their fellow townsfolk were dead, and there were no vampire corpses to be found.

RLVG, Kat-chan, and deathworlds are dead.

RLVG left a last will:

You may think of me as the stubborn player who keeps staying around, making all these suicide jokes for empathy and blabla across different games.
Because of this, it gives me the perfect amount of WIFOM for certain players.

It's a long shot, but eh... CHEERS! If the Vampire doesn't get me, then uhhh FAIL, my gambit ain't working out.

deathworlds also left a last will:

Allahu Akbar!

Hopefully the VL targeted me if not. I suspect any of the following people and suggest you look over their posts.

Toadette and Spurance.

If they don't die tonight I suggest pressuring and lynching them.

Living Players: Thornholt Suntax Toadette Spruance NotPanda Dead Players: RLVG Kat-chan deathworlds

Day 2 Ends at 8:00 PM PDT January 12th.

3 votes to hammer.

[Toadette]

What did I tell you? Turned a 1 night kill into 3. GOOD JOB GUYS.

Now we only get 2 chances to lynch. Given someone else most likely suicides, this could very well be our last chance.

[Toadette]

So I'm pretty sure Kat-chan was night killed, given that deathworlds and RLVG both suicided with a last will. Kat-Chan was probably killed in an attempt to frame deathworlds.

I don't know why deathworlds thought he would be targeted. He really didn't think that through.

I have a few things I need to do then I'll be back to do a thought dump given the remaining players. Since it's only 5 of us we should be able to do a quick run down of things.

[NotPanda]

That was extremely stupid of them

> tfw you take the suicide pill even though you have no proper facts or assumptions to work with

[Thornholt]

lol, that's a really bad start compared to the 1rst game XD. Also, we now know it wasn't RLVGa second time.

[NotPanda]

Lol of course, there is no real reason to assume that RLVG would be the vampire the second time around rofl

Well, bakatto suspected death worlds, and he killed himself, and they're both gone.

Uh, Suntax seemed fairly certain of deathworlds innocence. Maybe he can elaborate?

[Spruance]

lol...

Our chances of winning just decreased from over 80% to under 50%

Do we know that the jester is still alive?