S-FM 151: Terminators Return

[Firebringer]

Teminators Return:

Setup

Day 1

In the distant future, a war between man and machines will take place. This war has led to mass extermination of humans. However, the humans fought back. Led by the enigmatic leader, John Conner. Due to his influence, the humans struck back the machines. Destroying their core. In a last ditch effort the machines sent back an assassination unit: A Terminator. To Kill John Conner while he was still a teenager. The resistance sent back one of their own to be John’s protector to ensure the survival of mankind.
In the present, it is a time of ingenuity and advancement. Scientists and Researchers are hard at working on technology to improve mankind. One thing they are collaborating on a smart AI to make life easier for humans should be online within just a few days.
While simulation troops at a facility in order to prepare for future battles. A terminator has killed someone and took their place unbeknownst to rest of facility. The protector faked his way in as a recruit. The fight begins here for future of mankind.

Important Links:
Night 1
Day 2
Night 2
Day 3-GAME OVER

Player List: S-FM Church S-FM Sarge S-FM Tucker S-FM Donut S-FM Washington S-FM Grif S-FM Simmons S-FM Lopez S-FM Caboose S-FM Sister

Role List: Terminator US Citizen – [Citizen/Protector] British Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] France Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] Germany Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] Russia Citizen-[Citizen/Protector] Canada Citizen-[Citizen/Protector] Mexico Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] Scientist- [Neutral Evil] Researcher-[Neutral Evil]

Grave Yard:

Reminder: No Lynch Today.

You are not required to post for Day 1.

It is a 12 hour day.

COM HUNTING IS ALLOWED

Day Ends When This Hits Zero

[S-FM Squiggly]

You're all a bunch of fucking idiots.

[S-FM Buzzy]

You're all a bunch of fucking idiots.

[S-FM Junior]

Hello everyone, my name is Aristocat and I have recently taken on a lifestyle of peace and harmony in nature. Due to this I will take a strict no violence in this FM. As i am the US Citizen (most important) I demand that everyone else take up this glorious lifestyle and become one with nature. I request that right before each night starts we take an hour of meditation time so that no votes will go through and no one will die. I would also like to request that the Terminator kill no one so that my link with nature maintain intact.

Also everyone should try out delicious Vegan burgers. Eating cows is really bad for you and the environment.

[S-FM Squiggly]

Citizen doesnt receive what country he is apart of.

Fucking dumb ass.

Sarge is the lynch tomarrow.

[S-FM Buzzy]

I'm the US citizen. Let's lynch Sarge for lying.

[S-FM Needle Buzzy]

You're all a bunch of fucking idiots.

[S-FM Grubby]

I'm the US citizen. Let's lynch Sarge for lying.

I shall protect you, great American!

[S-FM Minno]

I smoke weed.

[S-FM Buzzy]

I'm the host guys. I just got high let's do this.

Player List: Role List:
S-FM Church Terminator
S-FM Sarge Scientist- [Neutral Evil]
S-FM Tucker British Citizen- [Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Donut US Citizen – [Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Washington France Citizen- [Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Grif Germany Citizen- [Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Simmons Russia Citizen-[Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Lopez Canada Citizen-[Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Caboose Mexico Citizen- [Citizen/Protector]
S-FM Sister Researcher-[Neutral Evil]

[S-FM Junior]

lets settle this peacefully. If we all come and set up a peace circle we can all come out without getting hurt

[S-FM Minno]

lets settle this peacefully. If we all come and set up a peace circle we can all come out without getting hurt

Fuck you.

[S-FM Grubby]

lets settle this peacefully. If we all come and set up a peace circle we can all come out without getting hurt

Do you know who wants peace and non-violence?

Neutrals, eh.

[S-FM Grubby]

I have a theory. You know how under our names it says "S-FM Player X"? I think X is the number on the sign-up list.

1. Death worlds - Church
2. MattZed - Caboose
3. DarknessB - Sister
4. Slaol
5. Numbertwo
6. Aristocat - Sarge
7. sekov
8. TheDarkestLight - Grif
9. Frog - Donut
10. Dagaen

etc.

[S-FM Minno]

Do you know who wants peace and non-violence?

Neutrals, eh.

Sarge confirmed Researcher/Scientist.

[S-FM Pinky]

You're all a bunch of fucking idiots.

Awww man. Why does he get the fun account? You can't pick up chicks in a non-fun account.

[S-FM Squiggly]

Awww man. Why does he get the fun account? You can't pick up chicks in a non-fun account.

You are barely tolerable.

[S-FM Pinky]

You are barely tolerable.

At least i'm not a stupid ghost.

[S-FM Squiggly]

You are barely tolerable.

At least i'm not a stupid ghost.

That was a compliment.

[S-FM Pinky]

That was a compliment.

Are you sure you're Church? Church never complimented me.

[S-FM Squiggly]

Are you sure you're Church? Church never complimented me.

Shut up you dumbass.

[S-FM Grubby]

Awww man. Why does he get the fun account? You can't pick up chicks in a non-fun account.

Hai Slaol.

[S-FM Pinky]

Hai Slaol.

[S-FM Grubby]

Does voteless D1 not mean COM hunting day?

Sorry, eh.

[S-FM Jetster]

Leeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeroy Jenkins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[S-FM Shyster]

sup?

[S-FM Jetster]

What's up J-lo?

[S-FM Shyster]

soooo.. what's the plan? we random lynch someone and hope for the best?

[S-FM Minno]

soooo.. what's the plan? we random lynch someone and hope for the best?

We shouldn't be lynching until after judgement day.

Math says so.

The Terminator can kill at max two people before judgement day, and that second person will be a missing Mafia. Killing anyone beyond that is only taking away from us.

The only exception to this is if we can lynch the Terminator himself, or if we know we can get both the scientist and researcher killed before the end of D3, but the latter is HIGHLY unlikely.

The best scenario we can have is if we have two people dead, and the Terminator is one of them.

Also, John Conner needs to reveal tomorrow if the Protector is still alive, and then the Protector needs to protect John that last night. Even if the Protector then dies that night Conner will have survived until Judgement day and we can breathe a lot easier. Tonight is the most dangerous night in the game. If the Protector dies John is in a really bad spot, and if John dies... we lose.

Just my two cents.

[S-FM Bloato]

I'm required to post in a 12h Day? Man, that's a harsh requirement.

Anyway this is my obligatory post for Today, I haven't even read the setup yet.

[S-FM Minno]

I'm required to post in a 12h Day? Man, that's a harsh requirement.

Anyway this is my obligatory post for Today, I haven't even read the setup yet.

It says you are not required to post.

[S-FM Grubby]

We shouldn't be lynching until after judgement day.

Math says so.

The Terminator can kill at max two people before judgement day, and that second person will be a missing Mafia. Killing anyone beyond that is only taking away from us.

The only exception to this is if we can lynch the Terminator himself, or if we know we can get both the scientist and researcher killed before the end of D3, but the latter is HIGHLY unlikely.

The best scenario we can have is if we have two people dead, and the Terminator is one of them.

Also, John Conner needs to reveal tomorrow if the Protector is still alive, and then the Protector needs to protect John that last night. Even if the Protector then dies that night Conner will have survived until Judgement day and we can breathe a lot easier. Tonight is the most dangerous night in the game. If the Protector dies John is in a really bad spot, and if John dies... we lose.

Just my two cents.

If you wanna talk math, the probability that 4 random kills can kill 2 special players (the neuts) out of 10 is 13%. Things are actually even nicer for us because the Terminator's kills can be regarded as better than random (they can't hit himself) and John Connor is probably unlynchable.

Actually, let's get into some light case analysis:
If Terminator kills at night, there's an 11% chance the game ends and a 22% chance he kills one of the neuts.
If he kills a neut, and we assume John is unlynchable, we have a 12.5% chance of lynching the other neut and instantly winning the game, and another 12.5% chance of lynching the terminator, which is also good. 25% chance of amazing shit happening is too good to pass up.
On the other hand, if he kills a cit or the protector, then we still have the 12.5% chance of lynching the terminator, and killing the neuts wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

If I'm not feeling lazy, I'll go through the entire possibility tree later.

Also it's technically our wincon to stop Judgement Day, so it's quite arguably going against your wincon to not lynch, because you're betting on a later faction that you haven't joined yet to win. Fire, do you consider this to be gamethrowing?

[Firebringer]

It is not considered game throwing to not lynch.

[Firebringer]

Night 1:

The day came to end as all the troopers returned to their bunks and went to sleep. Two troopers had no intention to sleep. One intended to find and kill john, the other intending to foil him.
Who will prevail?

Player List: S-FM Church S-FM Sarge S-FM Tucker S-FM Donut S-FM Washington S-FM Grif S-FM Simmons S-FM Lopez S-FM Caboose S-FM Sister

Role List: Terminator US Citizen – [Citizen/Protector] British Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] France Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] Germany Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] Russia Citizen-[Citizen/Protector] Canada Citizen-[Citizen/Protector] Mexico Citizen- [Citizen/Protector] Scientist- [Neutral Evil] Researcher-[Neutral Evil]

Grave Yard:

Night 1 Ends When This Hits Zero

[Firebringer]

Day 2:

Everyone woke up to find that someone had been murdered last night. Everyone was summoned to meet in what was called the rhombus of mystery to solve out who was the killer. Meanwhile the scientists and researchers are nowhere to be found, everyone believes them to be the murderers and want their heads on a platter. No one can quite remember what they looked like, they could be hiding among those participating in this discussion.

The group must be quick as the Terminator is likely to strike again.

S-FM Washington was killed. He was the Protector!

He left something behind.

Spoiler : Last Will :

"
I don't who who the Connor is, I've protected the Sarge, because his talk about a peace could be a sign of a guy, who wants to avoid a war. As for vest: it should be in a good hands.

"

Player List: S-FM Church S-FM Sarge S-FM Tucker S-FM Donut S-FM Grif S-FM Simmons S-FM Lopez S-FM Caboose S-FM Sister S-FM Washington

Role List: Terminator US Citizen British Citizen France Citizen Germany Citizen Russia Citizen Canada Citizen Mexico Citizen Scientist Researcher

Grave Yard: 1. S-FM Washington-Protector

Day 2 Ends When This Reaches Zero


5 votes to hammer.

[S-FM Grubby]

I'll do the full math in a moment, but I believe the sheer chance of lynching the terminator or that both researchers die justifies a lynch today.

[S-FM Minno]

Lucky target Protector.

I'm John Conner and I got a vest last night.

So, since I'm safe for tonight and Judgement day comes after day three, we're safe from losing until post-judgement day.

[S-FM Grubby]

I just made some computations under the assumption that John Connor is lynchable both days:

If we lynch every day:
31.3% John Connor is either lynched or killed by Terminator
40.9% chance game goes on and no terminator death, 4v2 after Judgement day.
20.2% chance terminator is lynched
7.8% chance both researchers die

If we never lynch:
11.1% chance John Connor is terminated
88.9% chance game goes on to 5v2v1 after Judgement Day

I actually kinda prefer the lynching strategy, although not by as much as I thought before I did the computation; we basically triple the chance of losing by not getting past judgment day, but we gain a chance to win before then and a chance to kill the terminator and go into post-judgement day in a much easier world for those who don't join skynet. Things get even better for us if you assume John is unlynchable on D3 but not today.

So, let's get this started.

-vote S-FM Sarge

[S-FM Minno]

I just made some computations under the assumption that John Connor is lynchable both days:

If we lynch every day:
31.3% John Connor is either lynched or killed by Terminator
40.9% chance game goes on and no terminator death, 4v2 after Judgement day.
20.2% chance terminator is lynched
7.8% chance both researchers die

If we never lynch:
11.1% chance John Connor is terminated
88.9% chance game goes on to 5v2v1 after Judgement Day

I actually kinda prefer the lynching strategy, although not by as much as I thought before I did the computation; we basically triple the chance of losing by not getting past judgment day, but we gain a chance to win before then and a chance to kill the terminator and go into post-judgement day in a much easier world for those who don't join skynet. Things get even better for us if you assume John is unlynchable on D3 but not today.

So, let's get this started.

-vote S-FM Sarge

We want to avoid having three people dead unless the Terminator is one of them. The scum-town ratio is highest a one death only and lowest at four deaths. Yet it is highly unlikely that the Terminator will kill tonight given my claim. Yes, he'll stop a town from spawning post-judgement day. Yet then we can get to our highest percentage by lynching someone day 3 and stopping the neutral from spawning.

If the Terminator doesn't kill tonight we shouldn't lynch tomorrow. If he does, we should. Math is simply working in our favor.

[S-FM Jetster]

Sure, fuck that guy Sarge, never liked him anyway.

-vote S-FM Sarge

[S-FM Minno]

Also, isn't there a chance Sarge was the one protected last night?

Will we learn if the Protector died protecting or was targeted?

[Firebringer]

Player is notified that they were saved by Protector if Terminator intended target was them.

[S-FM Minno]

I suggest we wait to see what Sarge says then.

[S-FM Jetster]

I suggest we wait to see what Sarge says then.

Well now you gave him something to claim after that question ^^.

[S-FM Minno]

Well now you gave him something to claim after that question ^^.

*Shrug*

Maybe someone else is a better target then.

[S-FM Grubby]

We want to avoid having three people dead unless the Terminator is one of them. The scum-town ratio is highest a one death only and lowest at four deaths. Yet it is highly unlikely that the Terminator will kill tonight given my claim. Yes, he'll stop a town from spawning post-judgement day. Yet then we can get to our highest percentage by lynching someone day 3 and stopping the neutral from spawning.

If the Terminator doesn't kill tonight we shouldn't lynch tomorrow. If he does, we should. Math is simply working in our favor.

You said yourself the best ratio is achieved at 4 deaths. Should we not then kill today and base tomorrow's kill on whether or not the terminator kills, if we're optimizing for post-judgement day?

If your claim is true and you are a vested John Connor, then we can't lose the game before judgement day. But we might end the game before then or kill the terminator.

[S-FM Minno]

You said yourself the best ratio is achieved at 4 deaths. Should we not then kill today and base tomorrow's kill on whether or not the terminator kills, if we're optimizing for post-judgement day?

If your claim is true and you are a vested John Connor, then we can't lose the game before judgement day. But we might end the game before then or kill the terminator.

If we lynch the Scientist/Researcher today, or one of them dies tonight, then yes, let's lynch tomorrow. But the Terminator is highly unlikely to kill tonight based on the fact that since he can't kill me, and he'd only be hurting himself by letting us get to the four kills.

If both the Scientist and Researcher survive into tomorrow there is literally no point in lynching them. We can't win by killing them at that point, we only have one lynch and we need both dead, killing only one hurts us post-judgement day unless he happens to be the fourth person. But I still sincerely doubt the Terminator will kill tonight. Although two kills favors us, it still isn't as good as four.

[S-FM Minno]

You said yourself the best ratio is achieved at 4 deaths. Should we not then kill today and base tomorrow's kill on whether or not the terminator kills, if we're optimizing for post-judgement day?

If your claim is true and you are a vested John Connor, then we can't lose the game before judgement day. But we might end the game before then or kill the terminator.

Reading this again makes me think you are assuming I don't support a lynch today. I do support a lynch today actually.

[S-FM Grubby]

Reading this again makes me think you are assuming I don't support a lynch today. I do support a lynch today actually.

Looking back, it seems I misread you on that point. Pressure Sarge with me?

[S-FM Jetster]

I'd say there's a big chance that Sarge might be a scientist or researcher so it's not such a bad idea to kill him. He looked too friendly after all and claimed that he's an U.S. citi, and you know what's up with them. First they pretend they're friendly and after that bam Hiroshima and Nagasaki right into judgement day.
We can't take our chances with him.