The "Guilty or Inno" Reveal

[lawson]

well you know what they say, don't make fun of people when they open themselves up to you. they probably won't do that again.

[SuperJack]

You should play some forum mafia.

[Cryptonic]

Yea I'm pretty sure everyone who actually plays a lot of mafia focuses on those people lol

[Slaol]

Someone is up on trial. They give a moving defense, and it's time for the jury to deliberate. "Inno! He's NS!" one person says. "GUILTY SUCH BS" says another. One person, in the midst of the crowd, says "guilty or inno?"

He doesn't know it, but he just admitted he was an evil role.

You see, he's trying to blend in. He's attaching his vote to someone else. What he doesn't realize is, good guys don't have to try to blend in, making him obviously evil.

Ever since I've started observing this, I've seen an extraordinary success rate. I've probably tracked 50 "guilty or inno?" subjects and only TWO were town. That means 48 were evil. That's 96% chance of evil from this simple statement alone.

Obviously you're going to need to calibrate yourself and use caution when applying this method. There will always be the exception to the rule.

The trick is to just win your own games with the strategy, and not publicize it. Fairly known, but don't spread winning strat's man.

[Cryptonic]

The trick is to just win your own games with the strategy, and not publicize it. Fairly known, but don't spread winning strat's man.

Lol this is why I hate giving advice
As soon as you explain something, everything evolves.

[DarknessB]

Couldn't agree more -- strategies are only as good as they're not well known. Other strategies that were once very effective, but are now ineffective for the most part:

- As Jester, "accidentally" typing "0kidnap" / "0court" or claiming Citizen when that role is impossible in the setup, in order to get yourself lynched quickly.
- As Executioner, blasting out any fake lead you can think of against your target on Day 2 in order to get a quick lynch (feel like this rarely works anymore these days. but in years past, had a very high success rate).
- Using -prefer to try to get Veteran and naming yourself "Justin Bieber" or a Brony name in order to get as many people as possible to visit you out of spite.
- As Jailor, executing anyone who claims Doctor (there was a long post on the forum about whether this was a good strategy or not -- I don't think it is, especially now that people know Doctor claims are viewed suspiciously by many players).
- As Serial Killer, not killing for a bit to start so that the Town will think there is an Arsonist instead or that you are AFK.

Also, for what it's worth, I disagree with lawson's premise to some extent. From what I've observed, Town often ask that question when they're genuinely confused by someone being randomly voted up and they're looking to someone who might have more information to help make the decision (for example, a Mayor or Marshall, who has collected role information, or with the hope that a Town role will divulge some useful information to clear / condemn the trialed person). One of the most damaging things for Town (especially early on) is not voting at all, because there are usually enough scum to force a guilty vote if the Town chooses to AFK (in a standard setup, 3 Mafia / Triad and 3 Neutrals). I would rather have people talking it out during the vote phase than AFKing and allowing the scum to lynch Townies.

The trick is to just win your own games with the strategy, and not publicize it. Fairly known, but don't spread winning strat's man.

[bwcPorscha]

Couldn't agree more -- strategies are only as good as they're not well known. Other strategies that were once very effective, but are now ineffective for the most part:

- As Jester, "accidentally" typing "0kidnap" / "0court" or claiming Citizen when that role is impossible in the setup, in order to get yourself lynched quickly.
- As Executioner, blasting out any fake lead you can think of against your target on Day 2 in order to get a quick lynch (feel like this rarely works anymore these days. but in years past, had a very high success rate).
- Using -prefer to try to get Veteran and naming yourself "Justin Bieber" or a Brony name in order to get as many people as possible to visit you out of spite.
- As Jailor, executing anyone who claims Doctor (there was a long post on the forum about whether this was a good strategy or not -- I don't think it is, especially now that people know Doctor claims are viewed suspiciously by many players).
- As Serial Killer, not killing for a bit to start so that the Town will think there is an Arsonist instead or that you are AFK.

Also, for what it's worth, I disagree with lawson's premise to some extent. From what I've observed, Town often ask that question when they're genuinely confused by someone being randomly voted up and they're looking to someone who might have more information to help make the decision (for example, a Mayor or Marshall, who has collected role information, or with the hope that a Town role will divulge some useful information to clear / condemn the trialed person). One of the most damaging things for Town (especially early on) is not voting at all, because there are usually enough scum to force a guilty vote if the Town chooses to AFK (in a standard setup, 3 Mafia / Triad and 3 Neutrals). I would rather have people talking it out during the vote phase than AFKing and allowing the scum to lynch Townies.

Exec still easy wins by claiming something day 2 in a lot of games. I also agree that unless perhaps during a marshall/mayor reveal, many evils are just like "???????? I DONT WANNA FUCK UP... CANT TELL IF TOWN IS LEANING GUILTY OR INNO... BETTER ASK..." I'd say it's really only town sometimes during that marshall/mayor when everybody insists on following the town gov. As far as that jester play goes, it's transformed into a different meta -- people no longer take that person seriously, and just dismiss them. As an evil, it's really an easy way to let yourself fall into the back of peoples' minds.

At the end of the day, "winning strats" are going to be known by people who play often enough, and not known by people who don't play enough. Everything is always just a transforming meta, and the fact that transformations keep happening, only allows for more options for each role to play towards. Now jester can act legitimate or stupid, and depending on the audience, he'll fail or be successful. The more it changes, the more every role can play in a different way. I believe it's a great concept that things always change, the more options, the more fun the game is. I think being afraid of sharing "winning strats" is silly, and let's be honest, we hate having ignorant and new players on our own teams. Spread the information for everybody to play more optimally.

[DarknessB]

All very good points. Winning strategies also largely depend on who is in the game. If you have a smart Town, you can't get away with nearly as much as you can with inexperienced players or players who are more inclined to troll than play seriously. Being able to read your audience is helpful in terms of when to push and how hard to push. A stupid / trolly Town is likely to listen to nonsense from the outset, where as a smart Town might vote you up for trying to random early, etc.

Exec still easy wins by claiming something day 2 in a lot of games. I also agree that unless perhaps during a marshall/mayor reveal, many evils are just like "???????? I DONT WANNA FUCK UP... CANT TELL IF TOWN IS LEANING GUILTY OR INNO... BETTER ASK..." I'd say it's really only town sometimes during that marshall/mayor when everybody insists on following the town gov. As far as that jester play goes, it's transformed into a different meta -- people no longer take that person seriously, and just dismiss them. As an evil, it's really an easy way to let yourself fall into the back of peoples' minds.

At the end of the day, "winning strats" are going to be known by people who play often enough, and not known by people who don't play enough. Everything is always just a transforming meta, and the fact that transformations keep happening, only allows for more options for each role to play towards. Now jester can act legitimate or stupid, and depending on the audience, he'll fail or be successful. The more it changes, the more every role can play in a different way. I believe it's a great concept that things always change, the more options, the more fun the game is. I think being afraid of sharing "winning strats" is silly, and let's be honest, we hate having ignorant and new players on our own teams. Spread the information for everybody to play more optimally.

[MattZed]

I have a similar success rate with reactions to how the night went.

Now... who's going to move this thread to the graveyard it belongs in?

[DarknessB]

How about Day 1 Survivor claims?

I have a similar success rate with reactions to how the night went.

Now... who's going to move this thread to the graveyard it belongs in?

[MattZed]

How about Day 1 Survivor claims?

I actually find D1 survivor claims in SC2 Mafia to be generally true. Seen quite a few arsos call themselves amnesiac, though.

[DarknessB]

I tend to adopt the Orpz school of thought with Survivors -- if you are one vote away from being trialed, "then you have not done your job as a Survivor and shall meet an unfortunate end".

I actually find D1 survivor claims in SC2 Mafia to be generally true. Seen quite a few arsos call themselves amnesiac, though.

[lawson]

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