M-FM XXVI The Frozen Throne Gamethread

[King Terenas Menethil]

Day 3


M-FM Plaguelands was killed last night. He was Marwyn, a Footman.

Spoiler : Last Will N1 COMPLETE :

Spoiler : My read on M-FM Lordaron :

His first 3 posts are a bit of trolling, nothing much. Don't mind, that's fine in the beginning.
#45 he agrees with you about Mal'ganis FoS as "pretending to be from another site = scum", asks Mal'ganis to make a better case (immediately dismissing you as scum with such a case made against you). At the very least he is interested in involving himself but he gives very little in this post.
#56 he claims "Mal'ganis does not feel like town" it'd be nice if he gave reasoning. kind of scummy in my eyes to exclaim such a thing without explaining
#58 is a troll post. meh, its the first day so I'll let it slide
#69 claims that no one has read the setup. In context he is slightly defending you and buddying with Andorhal.
#84 troll post again.
#98 "you two have completely taken the spotlight" I assume this is supposed to be a defense as to why he hasn't posted a lot. I say it's bs and he could've added his opinion at any time.
#111 "like half the players are inactive" nice deduction Sherlock. That's no excuse for you to do the same

My conclusion from everything he has done is that he is pretty scummy atm. He was available throughout the 48h and has barely contributed anything. He had several opportunities to do so seeing as he commented even at times where the discussion was at its most active point. He even chose to post troll posts instead of anything of value. Makes me think that he wanted just wanted to seem active without contributing. Might also just be inexperienced.

Spoiler : Various reads made by SOMEONE ELSE which I mostly agree with though, note that this was not the complete post and I paraphrased some reads :

M-FM Andorhal – Follows the game and is probably actively reading players. I think she plans on using that dog post style to float to the late game. Persuasion to contribute might be difficult.
19 M-FM Captain Luc Valonforth – His post 73 suggests that he is making in depth reads considering a players motive behind their posts and also takes the time to consider how players will react to what he says.
12 M-FM Invincible – Only post of note the second post. The player said “I will then go full steam of post on the game” obligating himself to a later contribution. I see that as a genuine desire to contribute although it did not happen which may or may not have been intentional, using his last post to excuse himself from commitments. If that is the case his first post may have just been to feign a desire to contribute.
17 M-FM Princess Calia Menethil – The post could have been an effort to dodge D1. He waited until the very last second to show up and show that he is in the game but in such a way it would be impossible for him to contribute at all.

Spoiler : More reads made by me :

M-FM Silvermoon: Has voted me early in the day because I apparently looked like I didn't want to allow any kind of speculations being made. However she did not entirely explain her reasonings and even though she has posted one more time later in the game it was just a troll post regarding a pun. 1/2 out of 4 posts and nothing of much value. For someone so aggressive early it's surprising that he did not involve himself in any discussions at a later point even though he was seemingly there.

M-FM Andorhal: I agree that this player wants to float to the late game. The tone in his posts makes me think that he is an experienced player but he chooses not to contribute a lot on D1 to stay under the radar. Him calling us "showoffs" underlines the impression that he is experienced.. or that he is unskilled, but I find that unlikely.

M-FM Archimonde: Even though he has posted throughout the day (a bit at the beginning and near the end of the day) he did not contribute anything. His vote on me copied the format of Hearthglen's vote on Archimonde and makes me think that all he did that day was troll. He actively chose not to say anything useful on anything despite quoting me twice (and one time even saying TL;DR when it was just 5 lines of text). He made no effort to share any of his opinions. Honestly one of my bigger scum suspects coming out of the day for me.

M-FM Hearthglen: Despite not saying a lot he did give his opinion on a current conflict and that's a lot better than most of the people that day have done. Contrary to that the fact that chose not to say a lot makes it a lot harder to look at his behaviour meaning he is able to hide his thoughts and his strategy going into the game. Someone like Andorhal, who has not contributed a lot, is a lot easier to read because you can analyze his strategy going into the game from the way he behaves.

Spoiler : MORE INFORMATION, IMPORTANT :

So you may be wondering: How did I get someone else's reads? Of course with the help of an Architect. The thing I want to remind everyone of: There may not only be a town Architect but also a Mafia one.

We have established a way for the Architect to reveal himself to us should he desire to do so. The reveal will not confirm him as a town Architect and should be taken into consideration. Please beware. A Mafia Architect might reveal himself just because it would be considered bad for a Mafia Architect to reveal himself and this way he would expect to gain town points from the two of us.
After talking with my other Architect chat partner I do believe that my chat partner is town for the moment just based on his reads and impressions.

I want everyone to make an effort to ask questions to low-activity players to get them to contribute. Make sure the activity picks up during the game. As of n1 there is not much to say otherwise. I hope the reads are of help. Good luck.
PS: Oh and just because M-FM Lordaron was the first read I made doesn't mean he is the scummiest of them all. Just one of many scummy people.

Spoiler : Last Will N2 :

Spoiler : M-FM King Magni Bronzebeard :

It's better to maximize the day's length so we could talk and find any information from some of the lurkers.

-vote M-FM Archimonde


LOLHAMMERBLITZ

Plaguelands is scum, vigilante please shoot him if there's 1 <3

This contradiction is sooooo freaking scummy. He probably jumped onto the train so it seems as if he wasn't blue mafia scum. First quote was made for town points and is proof that he very obviously knows why you don't hammer early into the day but looking at the second quote, made with 9h left in the day and more than enough votes on our lynch target there was no reason to hammer this early. I can very confidently say that this guy is scum. His contributions don't exactly disprove this conclusion.

Spoiler : Read on M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider :

D1 posts:
First post
Shows that he did not read the setup and is inexperienced.
Second post
Just a troll post. No contributions.

D2 posts:
Post#293
Shows that he did not read the thread. I have already claimed very obviously at this point.
Post#482
Just jumps onto the train and very obviously sheeps without any thought.

Pressure him hard to contribute. This guy is scraping by with just 2 posts per day and no contributions at all. That is ridiculous. Even if he could be a new player that is no excuse to not say anything at all.

Nothing much to say other than that. If you can see this will then I'm obviously a footman. You know what to do.
/disclaimer I will probably not be killed N2, that'd be a waste of a KPN since I'm going to be lynched soon anyway.

M-FM Princess Calia Menethil was killed last night. She was Tyrande Whisperwind, a Detective

Spoiler : Last Will :

n1 Plaguelands visited DEAD
DONT TRUST NORTHREND (from architect chat night 2)

The Scourge Army
The Lich King (Ner’Zhul)
Anub’arak(Beguiler)
Kel’Thuzad

Illidan's Legion
Illidan Stormrage
Prince Kael’Thas
Lady Vashj

Defenders of Lordaeron
Arthas
Antonidas
Lady Jaina Proudmoore
Malfurion Stormrage
Uther the Lightbringer
Muradin Bronzebeard
Shandris Feathermoon(Footman)
Lady Sylvanas Windrunner
Tyrande Whisperwind(Detective)
Medivh
Falric
Marwyn(Footman)
Thrall
Little Timmy

Players
2 M-FM Quel’thalas
3 M-FM Lordaeron
4 M-FM Hearthglen
5 M-FM Stratholme
6 M-FM Dalaran
7 M-FM Northrend
9 M-FM Andorhal
10 M-FM Frostmourne
11 M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider
12 M-FM Invincible
13 M-FM King Magni Bronzebeard
14 M-FM Kil’jaeden
16 M-FM Mal’ganis
18 M-FM Tichondrius
19 M-FM Captain Luc Valonforth
20 M-FM Sheep


Graveyard
1 M-FM Silvermoon- Footman
15 M-FM Archimonde- Beguiler
8M-FM Plaguelands - Footman
17M-FM Princess Calia Menethil- Detective


Setup
Day End

9 votes to hammer.

[M-FM Northrend]

Hi Town.

It's sad to see two vocal players leave so early, so we're going to have to make a concerted effort to pick up the slack

*cough cough*

Since Plaguelands was not bussed, and Princess flipped det, it's clear that Plague was framed, so we at least know that there is a framer role in the setup.

That leaves Mafia with:
Faction 1:
Head
Framer [Deception]
X [assume support]

Faction 2:
Head
Beguiler [Deception] (dead)
X [assume support]

Last night was very revealing and I'd like to let others contribute before I weigh in.

[M-FM Tichondrius]

So, that settles that.

No feedback.

[M-FM Dalaran]

-vote M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider

Yarp

[M-FM Tichondrius]

-vote M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider

Yarp

Also northrend, care to share what was discussed in your architect chat if you were involved?

[M-FM Northrend]

Also northrend, care to share what was discussed in your architect chat if you were involved?

Yes, Princess was perhaps the worst person to be paired with in a room with a questionably aligned architect.

She did not understand subtlety and wanted me to spell everything out for her.

At first I was pissed, but then I somewhat obliged.

What would you think if you saw 2 town reads Day 1 and 2 town reads Day 2 in architect chat while the architect contributes nothing?

[M-FM Northrend]

-vote M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider

Yarp

R.I.P. Plaguelands.

Who said footmen couldn't contribute to the course of a game?

-vote Anasterian Sunstrider

[M-FM Dalaran]

Yes, Princess was perhaps the worst person to be paired with in a room with a questionably aligned architect.

She did not understand subtlety and wanted me to spell everything out for her.

At first I was pissed, but then I somewhat obliged.

What would you think if you saw 2 town reads Day 1 and 2 town reads Day 2 in architect chat while the architect contributes nothing?

That the architect is not town aligned, and instead is trying to get reads from town players.

Or

The architect is town and trying to coordinate the most obviously town players. Last night could have been in an effort to let you decide her night action due to her obvious inability.

[M-FM Northrend]

Oh right,

in the off chance Architect is actually Town aligned.

poopieface.

I just want to say... this is the codeword Princess came up with.

[M-FM Northrend]

That the architect is not town aligned, and instead is trying to get reads from town players.

Or

The architect is town and trying to coordinate the most obviously town players. Last night could have been in an effort to let you decide her night action due to her obvious inability.

That's exactly what I thought as well.

I coordinated night actions and revealed a secret to the architect.

[M-FM Dalaran]

So there was 2 kills. 1 of them makes sense for a scum kill as that no TP would stay on that detective. The second.. not so much. There is a potential that the second kill was a jailor/vigilante and for the second night in a row one of the mafia teams has been blocked/not able to kill

[M-FM Dalaran]

poopieface.

Lol! God that hurts. Its like giving a 3 year old a gun.

[M-FM Northrend]

So there was 2 kills. 1 of them makes sense for a scum kill as that no TP would stay on that detective. The second.. not so much. There is a potential that the second kill was a jailor/vigilante and for the second night in a row one of the mafia teams has been blocked/not able to kill

There is a third option involving a bus driver.

Or perhaps a combination of 2 out of the 3.




I realize this vote was incorrect:

-vote vote M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider

[M-FM Northrend]

Lol! God that hurts. Its like giving a 3 year old a gun.

It's still a shame to lose an investigative role that bypasses detection immunity.

Would now be a good time to compile a list of 'confirmed' or 'thought to be confirmed' roles, regardless of alignment?

One more time:

-vote M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider

[M-FM Tichondrius]

T

It's still a shame to lose an investigative role that bypasses detection immunity.

Would now be a good time to compile a list of 'confirmed' or 'thought to be confirmed' roles, regardless of alignment?

One more time:

-vote M-FM Anasterian Sunstrider

I would think so.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Footman

Footman
Detective
Architect
Sheriff
TP/Escort?

[M-FM Northrend]

Footman

Footman
Detective
Architect
Sheriff
TP/Escort?

Unless someone is willing to claim roleblocked, I'm going to rule out escort as 'thought to be confirmed'.

It is a very distinct possibility that Day 1 was the unlucky start to:
a) Cult
b) Expansion of Mafia Blue

if Arthas or Lady Sylvanas were hit.

[M-FM Northrend]

Possible Roles:
Escort/Consort
Vigilante
Bus Driver

[M-FM Tichondrius]

Yeah we definetly have a killing role in town, it would be rediculous if we didn't.

[M-FM Lordaeron]

I find it quite funny that the Detective who screamed that someone were scum, both died and flipped town.
That's why you don't just randomly scream "Scum".

Moving on to the matters, Everyone, don't forget the role Witch.
Manipulate a target at night and force them to visit a second target, gives no feedback.

[M-FM Northrend]

What are your current feelings towards Strat today?

I thought his gambit was actually quite clever.

It effectively distances himself from being Arthas or Sylvanas as neither once transformed would have claimed to have been attacked and healed. Claiming that would put him at risk for a quick sheriff check. In fact I'll go further to say his gambit was perhaps the most anti-scum move, as any scum would then risk being exposed. Unless I'm seriously overstating his skill... in either case I'd like to hear a lot more from Strat. I think his opinion will be valuable today.

[M-FM Northrend]

I find it quite funny that the Detective who screamed that someone were scum, both died and flipped town.
That's why you don't just randomly scream "Scum".

Moving on to the matters, Everyone, don't forget the role Witch.
Manipulate a target at night and force them to visit a second target, gives no feedback.

I agree, and luckily the vocal players were able to stop a D1 mislynch.

Witch is much less likely given that Plague was a very vocal Day 1. It's more likely that Plague was targeted, and not Princess (having written only one "hello" post D1).

[M-FM Lordaeron]

Everyone's opinions are valuable. I'd like to hear more from Strat as well, and Mal'Ganis.

The gambit is still but a gambit, the whole scheme were Towny, but it still depended on certain player's ability to detect it. It did prove the "sheeping" part however which I want to prod on to those players more. Interesting point of view about the gambit VS Arthas and Sylvanas.

The hammer by Bronzebeard were quite disturbing, and I agree with the point found in the LW that this player has contradicted itself. I really hope the excuse isn't "Because we mountain kings has hammers!"

[M-FM Northrend]

That the architect is not town aligned, and instead is trying to get reads from town players.

Or

The architect is town and trying to coordinate the most obviously town players. Last night could have been in an effort to let you decide her night action due to her obvious inability.

I should add one more note regarding the architect in this game.
The architect did not reveal his identity because he did not know what arch was going to flip. He/She then shared the night 1 Architect chat with me.

Funny enough, practically the only player I have a strong town read on was chatting with Plague N1.

[M-FM Lordaeron]

So there was 2 kills. 1 of them makes sense for a scum kill as that no TP would stay on that detective. The second.. not so much. There is a potential that the second kill was a jailor/vigilante and for the second night in a row one of the mafia teams has been blocked/not able to kill

Jailors can execute infinitely which encourages Trigger Happiness, but they can only jail during No Lynch (day killed).
A Vigilante has three charges and it's fun to shoot, so they would make more sense for the additional kill.

Reading more into the setup, there's :
Blacksmith who can give players guns, which means no kills the first night but the next one could have a trigger happy target.
Veteran who can alert at night, who seems to be able to do so infinitely. That's oh lord, so scary. Really scary.

I safely can say that out of all these roles, a Jailor cannot have done the kill.

Can't both scum teams do the kills though? "Hey, that one is Scum but not part of our team, it could be the other Scum!"

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

witch or framer pretty much confirmed despite terrible odds.

My gut says Scum A wanted to kill Princess to lynch Plague. Scum B wanted to kill Plague to lynch Princess. Given the unlikely status of a framer or witch, I likely would have pushed for one or the other.

Northrend, why do you think Princess said not to trust you?
What were your results?

I like town architect trying to make peace with both Princess and Plague if someone townread both.

[M-FM Northrend]

Jailors can execute infinitely which encourages Trigger Happiness, but they can only jail during No Lynch (day killed).
A Vigilante has three charges and it's fun to shoot, so they would make more sense for the additional kill.

Reading more into the setup, there's :
Blacksmith who can give players guns, which means no kills the first night but the next one could have a trigger happy target.
Veteran who can alert at night, who seems to be able to do so infinitely. That's oh lord, so scary. Really scary.

I safely can say that out of all these roles, a Jailor cannot have done the kill.

Can't both scum teams do the kills though? "Hey, that one is Scum but not part of our team, it could be the other Scum!"

I have thoughts on this. :-)

XXXXX XXX XXX XX XXXXXXX XXXXXXX.

Speaking of "that one is Scum but not part of our team":
Is no one suspicious of how I found a beguiler?
Are we just going to accept that beguiler got very unlucky hiding behind another scum?
Are we going to process that if I am actually Sheriff, Mafia Blue knows the identity of a Mafia Yellow?
Do we understand that the implications will be such that Blue will be reluctant to join a train on that particular day lynch as they can easily kill that person at night when the time is right?
Anything else?

[M-FM Northrend]

Northrend, why do you think Princess said not to trust you?

Refer to post #527.

Princess found thinking through this logic very troubling. So I walked her through several scenarios, and she decided I was scum. Lol.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

I thought beguiler was three shot. Given little likehood of being visited n1, I figured Beguiler just hid. If not, killing opposition scum the beguiler hid behind after they all FoSed said scum = epic towncred.. or am I wrong?

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

*just did not hide.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Are you revealing your results North?

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Maybe Beguiler hid behind Plague? It would explain why scum shot him...

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

The possibilities seem to Punnet here.

1. Blue scum kill Princess. With/Framer on Blue.
2. Orange scum kill Princess. Witch/Framer on Blue.
3. Blue scum kill Princess. Witch/Framer on Orange.
4. Orange scum kill Princess. Witch/Framer on Orange.

1. Blue scum kill a detective to protect Witch/Framer or killer as they could only set up one detective. Orange scum kill Plague going for crosskill.
2. Orange scum kill the detective to limit PR usage and get Plague lynched. Blue scum kill Plague to get Princess lynched.
3. Blue scum kill detective to protect themselves. Orange scum kills Plague to get detective lynched.
4. Orange scum kill detective to limit PR use and falsely confirm Plague as scum. Blue scum kill Plague thinking crosskill.


Which of these four is most likely?

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

My answer yesterday was "If you try to solve this, you have too much time on your hands."

[M-FM Hearthglen]

I have thoughts on this. :-)

XXXXX XXX XXX XX XXXXXXX XXXXXXX.

Speaking of "that one is Scum but not part of our team":
Is no one suspicious of how I found a beguiler?

I kinda am

Are we just going to accept that beguiler got very unlucky hiding behind another scum?
Are we going to process that if I am actually Sheriff, Mafia Blue knows the identity of a Mafia Yellow?

Wait, what? How does your being sheriff get Blue to know a Yellow?

Do we understand that the implications will be such that Blue will be reluctant to join a train on that particular day lynch as they can easily kill that person at night when the time is right?
Anything else?

Not so fast, bucko. A dead Townie is a dead Townie. I think Scum (of any color) would love to have a nice train/wagon lynch. It gives them what amounts to a bonus kill at night.

[M-FM Hearthglen]

The possibilities seem to Punnet here.

1. Blue scum kill Princess. With/Framer on Blue.
2. Orange scum kill Princess. Witch/Framer on Blue.
3. Blue scum kill Princess. Witch/Framer on Orange.
4. Orange scum kill Princess. Witch/Framer on Orange.

1. Blue scum kill a detective to protect Witch/Framer or killer as they could only set up one detective. Orange scum kill Plague going for crosskill.
2. Orange scum kill the detective to limit PR usage and get Plague lynched. Blue scum kill Plague to get Princess lynched.
3. Blue scum kill detective to protect themselves. Orange scum kills Plague to get detective lynched.
4. Orange scum kill detective to limit PR use and falsely confirm Plague as scum. Blue scum kill Plague thinking crosskill.


Which of these four is most likely?

5. Trigger-happy overzealous Townie shoots Plague thinking he's Scum.

[M-FM Northrend]

Are you revealing your results North?

Kind of. I want everyone to think through what was known:
a) I pinned a scum (albeit an obvious one through day chat meta)
b) That scum may have been unpinnable through sheriff detection in the first place
c) That BLUE beguiler may not have hid, but if he did he hid behind Orange mafia OR Orange framed Plaguelands.

Which of these four is most likely?

I believe the targets of last night were both Princess and Myself. I believe BLUE mafia tried to kill me and I believe ORANGE mafia succeeded in killing Plague. I can't know for sure at this point.

[M-FM Northrend]

I kinda am

Good, question everything.

Wait, what? How does your being sheriff get Blue to know a Yellow?

The Blue beguiler certainly didn't hide behind his own framed target or his own mafia buddy. At least not on purpose... If we can assume this is a vacuum without outside witches or bus drivers, Blue Mafia could infer whoever Blue Beguiler hid behind was Orange Mafia (or Framed).

Not so fast, bucko. A dead Townie is a dead Townie. I think Scum (of any color) would love to have a nice train/wagon lynch. It gives them what amounts to a bonus kill at night.

At this point in the game as with M-FM XX, I believe the scum are going to focus on Town first before taking each other down.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

@North,
So you are thinking

Blue killed you. You were healed. Vig shot Plague. Orange shot Princess?

@Heathglen, It turned out to be wrong, but it saved us a lynch. We had little odds of a witch and framer, so I can see a vig making that kill.


Anyone else have a major concern over two mussing kills now.

[M-FM Northrend]

@North,
So you are thinking

Blue killed you. You were healed. Vig shot Plague. Orange shot Princess?
.

No, I don't think I was healed. And I don't think a vigi shot Plague. Although if I were a Vigi, that would be the most logical thing to do.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

So how did Plague wind up dead if scum shot you? Walk me through that please?

[M-FM Northrend]

I thought about it again. Yes, I believe 'I' was shot by Blue and healed. I'm going to ask that the doctor stop healing me in the future. Yes, I believe the Vigi shot Plague. Yes, I believe Orange shot Princess.

This is my code from yesterday, although I think we'll soon find no one is being vented:

X XX XXXX XX XXX XXXXX X XX XXXXXX. XXXX XXXXX X XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXX XXXXX XXX XX XX XXXXX. XX XXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXX # XXX XXX #. X'X XXXXXXX XX XXX XXX XXXX XXXXX XX XXX XXXXXXXXX. X'X XXXXXX XXXXXXX XXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XX XXX XXX XXXXX XX XXXX XXX.

I AM LATE TO THE PARTY I AM SHERIF. LAST NIGHT I FOLLOWEDD ARCHIMONDE AND FOUND HIM TO BE MAFIA. HE VOTED PLAGUELANDS DAY 1 AND DAY 2. I'M WAITING TO SEE WHO ELSE JUMPS ON THE BANDWAGON. I'M OPENLY HOSTILE TOWARDS ARCHIMONDE TO SEE WHO TRIES TO HELP HIM.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

@North, Doc should always be on you. Period. Getting the info and finding the bad guys is too valuable. Ask all you want, I will ask for it the other way

[M-FM Northrend]

@North, Doc should always be on you. Period. Getting the info and finding the bad guys is too valuable. Ask all you want, I will ask for it the other way

I would ask that the doctor trust me and focus on the next most valuable town asset. I will reveal that person by day end.

I will also reveal my leads after 24 hours. I want to see all the lurkers come out of the wood works.

[M-FM Invincible]

Note to self: get to this game after sleep.

[M-FM Stratholme]

Hi everyone again, I got no feedback of importance tonight.

[M-FM Stratholme]

But, just to be sure I would like some pressure on this player.

-vote MFM Kil´jaeden

[M-FM Stratholme]

God I hate these votes.

-vote M-FM Kil´jaeden

[M-FM Stratholme]

Okay I cant vote him for whatever reason, but I guess my point is clear.

[M-FM Northrend]

Hi everyone again, I got no feedback of importance tonight.

Strat, there is a lot to discuss. I posed several questions to people and asked for feedback (not night feedback).

I am curious about your gambit yesterday. Can you explain further?

I would also like to point out that at least 2 players withheld night feedback information. I'm curious as to why this was done.