M-FM XXVI The Frozen Throne Gamethread

[King Terenas Menethil]

You owe me a pizza.

Important Clarification Required Please:

Bus Driver busses:
Himself with Player 1
Witch Targets Player 1 to Player 2
Do all Player 1, Player 2, and Bus Driver get bussed during that night phase?

If witch targets Player one then they just use their action on player 2 since it is before the bussing happens. Only BD and Player 1 are bussed.

If the witch selects a power role with a gun, for example an escort with a gun- would the witch use the role block, the gun, or both?

They use the power role unless the player with the gun chooses to use the gun that night. Then the gun will be used.

Can I post a transcript of my architect chat?

Please summarize as best as you can.

Host. Come here. Confirm how the OoO works, and confirm the Witch changes the First target of the Bus Driver and that you have made no mistakes.

Witch changes first target of the bus driver.

[M-FM Northrend]

Ok, then there are 2 possibilities.
Strat could be Mafia or Investigator with Dalaran being Mafia. With this knowledge Mafia was actually afraid of Strat's power more. So they decide to witch Sunseeker to block Strat. That privy information would require Dalaran to be Mafia.
That would mean the Andorhal the bus driver is not aligned with Mafia.

That would be an instance of incredible trickery.

But we have to think of what is more likely. If a witch existed, what would be more likely? Controlling the distribution of a gun? Stopping the checking of a Sheriff?

1. Perhaps controlling Sunseeker's gun was the intent.
2. Perhaps a framer destroyed Sunseeker's last will to create this trickery which would explain no last will.
3. Perhaps Bus Driver's actions was:
Sunseeker<->Andorhal or ("Switch Sunseeker with myself") as he claimed (The second time around).

This would allow for the witch to sunseeker's shot. Then Andorhal switches sunseeker with himself. Finally Andorhal is framed.
Let's look at it the other way around if Andorhal had switched himself with sunseeker instead.
Sunseeker is witched to use his shot, Andorhal is swapped with Sunseeker and Andorhal is framed.

Somehow in every scenario Sunseeker cannot be framed. Although it is clear that Sunseeker has no last will when clearly there should be, I have to assume involvement of a framer.

In every scenario it is not possible for Stratholme to be targeted by the bus driver accidentally. And let's be honest, the witch would not have purposefully or even accidentally (as we saw) targeted Andorhal.

In this scenario, Andorhal is Mafia.

I believe Stratholme had less incentive to lie about being bussed considering he revealed being bussed first. Although his reveal was the 8th person out of 10 remaining players. That suggested he may have been gambling on the bus driver targeting a dead player and causing confusion/doubt regarding the bus driver. Allowing for the reintroduction of the witch idea supplemented by my existing bias towards bus driver/chauffeur.

Simply put, Strat may have known the odds of lying were with him, he knew he was scum, and he wanted to put himself in the clear by claiming to have been bussed. He saw that none of his scum buddies had claimed bussed so it was a safe lie to create confusion.

In this scenario, Stratholme is Mafia.

So to review

A: Andorhal lied about targeting Sunseeker to create confusion and introduce doubt about a witch, he targeted Stratholme the whole time. But he is found out through Order of Operations. His witch used Sunseeker's shot and the framer to erase his last will. That would allow for doubt to be cast on the actual presence of a witch allowing for doubt to be cast on all future reads.

B. Stratholme played the odds and decided there was no downside to lying about being bussed.That his mafia buddies weren't already bussed so Strat would flip inno by all checks. It would cause the confusion about the possibility of a witch putting doubt on all future reads.

So which of these two scenarios is most likely?

[M-FM Northrend]

Before the day is over, without actually voting, I'd like to have an unofficial vote of who think who is scum.

I believe Andorhal is Mafia.

[Spider]

Northrend. I claimed to be bussed before Strat.
The Mafia that targeted me, they would know that I was bussed.
By strat claiming what is now a fake bus driver claim since the witch could not create a third. Him knowing I and the Escort was bussed, would make any checks on him to be faked onto me.

He was most likely being checked because town to have 3 investigation roles is unlikely. If I was Sherrif I would of checked strat also.

Sorry to of mis interpreted the OoO, I thought it confirmed a witch. Instead it was a lie.

I bussed me first. and it seems quite a few people are against me, like I don't have any friends.

The people I bussed are the people I bussed. I have not lied about anything.

Once I get home I will finish off my reads.

[M-FM Northrend]

it seems quite a few people are against me, like I don't have any friends.

Please don't take this personally, we're just collectively thinking this through of what is logical.

This leaves the unanswered question of:
How would Sunstrider not leave a last will? The framer would have to have targeted Sunstrider. And there's no way you could have bussed Sunstrider in any town way while Sunstrider had been framed out of a last will.

The only possibility of you being town is if Sunstrider didn't write a last will at all. Which, to be honest, wouldn't surprise me either. I would think a Framer would have at least put some effort into writing a fake last will rather than reveal himself this way.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

My biggest problem with you Andorhal is that, for the guy claiming to be the bus driver, everyone else seems to know more about your own role than you do. You created a third bus claim scenario which was easily disproven by reading the setup thread. It reads like a narrative that was thrown off kilter.

Also, we can infer that Sun was likely blocked due to the fact Heath wasn't killed. If you had bussed yourself with Sun, then you would have been blocked and Heath would be dead. Given no one has CCed Heath, two doctors is very unlikely.

For your story to make sense, scum would have had to try to block you but got bussed to Heath. That universe makes sense with a scum chaffeur.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

**bussed to Sun

[M-FM Northrend]

Before the day is over, without actually voting, I'd like to have an unofficial vote of who think who is scum.

I believe Andorhal is Mafia.

List of Players I need to hear an answer from (haven't already voted on one side or are those players):

2 M-FM Quel’thalas
3 M-FM Lordaeron
6 M-FM Dalaran

[M-FM Captain Luc Valonforth]

-vote M-FM Andorhal

I still believe Stratholme is the scum but whatever.

[M-FM Lordaeron]

It makes no sense that a Bus Driver doesn't know it's own role properly and creates this stupid 3-man bussing scenario, having already done multiple actions over the course of game.
I can't see how anyone can be placed Town Bus in that situation and would like to place an unofficial vote for that.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Andorhal is at L-2.

Dalaran I think already weighed in and said he thought Andoral was behaving scummy. So that leaves Quel-Thas. We've got about 6.5 hours until deadline, which should be enough time for him to weigh in before hammer.

[Spider]

My biggest problem with you Andorhal is that, for the guy claiming to be the bus driver, everyone else seems to know more about your own role than you do. You created a third bus claim scenario which was easily disproven by reading the setup thread. It reads like a narrative that was thrown off kilter.

Also, we can infer that Sun was likely blocked due to the fact Heath wasn't killed. If you had bussed yourself with Sun, then you would have been blocked and Heath would be dead. Given no one has CCed Heath, two doctors is very unlikely.

For your story to make sense, scum would have had to try to block you but got bussed to Heath. That universe makes sense with a scum chaffeur.

It was not at all easily disproven by reading the setup thread. I was given a scenario where someone claimed bus when they where not bus. Apologies for trying to show a way where he is was not scum. From my view their was only two ways it was faked, either something with a witch, or he lied. I did not think he would lie. But since he is Mafia, knowing that one of the peoole who where bussed is dead, saw the chance to claim it.

You are claiming that Sun was blocked , so you are saying their is a second roleblocked? Perhaps he choose to roleblock some one, perhaps he targeted me for the kill. But to claim me not knowing how the witch works is scummy then you are just plain stupid.

I am 100% certain That I bussed myself with the escort,

Also, can you explain what your new cock and bull theory is?

Even from a setup view, for the Mafia to have a n investigation role is very likely to happen, with another mafia in play. Whilst it being a good choice for bus driver to be town to redirect the two mafia teams.

If you really think the town have 3 investigation roles, then You have a terrible terrible setup assumption.

My problem is Mal, whenever I tell you your mistakes you Just ignore it, and go ahead and make more shit up to make me look even more scummy.

You don't care that I'm town, you just want me lynched.

[Spider]

Not knowing how a witch works is scummy? Your logic is dumb.

[M-FM Lordaeron]

Not knowing how a witch works is scummy? Your logic is dumb.

Point me out a game with three bus drives because of witch.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Except you're not town. It's not a new theory at all. If it was all cock and bull, then no one would get it at all. You can stop with the whole "my shit don't stink" argument.

Why would you suppose someone that claimed bussed, when you didn't bus them was town? That's the assumption you went to. Yes, the witch question was asked by ika in pregame. The host said the first target of the bus driver is changed. No third bus. It's much more simple than what you make it out to be.

Second, Heathglen isn't dead. Why? The simplest explanation is consort targeting the dead guy. Others require massive leap of faith.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Or they could both be scum. I am pretty game for either but I guess I will cast my 'fake vote" in a second after I double check a thing or two. Catching up

[M-FM Northrend]

It only slightly bothers me that we've reached an almost unanimous decision regarding Andorhal... Are scum dropping dead weight?

I'd like to remind everyone that this isn't a MYLO situation, but it very well could be. Please take the time to put some thought and analysis as this might be the last meaningful play of the game.

Remember, it could be just as easy that Strat lied about being bussed.

We're assuming there was no lie involved because of the presence of a forger killing the last will of Sunseeker as the main proof.

Everything else on complicated triple bus is sloppy conjecture.

[M-FM Northrend]

Or they could both be scum. I am pretty game for either but I guess I will cast my 'fake vote" in a second after I double check a thing or two. Catching up

Awesome, would really appreciate your opinion. Also I think they're both most likely scum anyway, and I wouldn't have a problem with Vig shooting Strat.

The next step should be coming up with acceptable Vig targets with special reasoning.

While I could just say something like:
Quel, Captain, and Strat are good targets

That kind of suggestion isn't valuable without purpose and reasoning. The more people weigh in, the more telling it can be.

[Spider]

Except you're not town. It's not a new theory at all. If it was all cock and bull, then no one would get it at all. You can stop with the whole "my shit don't stink" argument.

Why would you suppose someone that claimed bussed, when you didn't bus them was town? That's the assumption you went to. Yes, the witch question was asked by ika in pregame. The host said the first target of the bus driver is changed. No third bus. It's much more simple than what you make it out to be.

You dont read once again, With the OoO I thought that all misdicections happen at the same time, and only had priority order if direct interaction. Yeh I claimed the witch targeted the Escort, but witched me afer I had bussed since I was not initial target, and ending up sending a third message to strat.

I wanted their to be a situation that he was Town, because he was already labeled as investigator.


Second, Heathglen isn't dead. Why? The simplest explanation is consort targeting the dead guy. Others require massive leap of faith.

:/

[Spider]

It only slightly bothers me that we've reached an almost unanimous decision regarding Andorhal... Are scum dropping dead weight?

I'd like to remind everyone that this isn't a MYLO situation, but it very well could be. Please take the time to put some thought and analysis as this might be the last meaningful play of the game.

Remember, it could be just as easy that Strat lied about being bussed.

We're assuming there was no lie involved because of the presence of a forger killing the last will of Sunseeker as the main proof.

Everything else on complicated triple bus is sloppy conjecture.

I withdrew that Claim due to the hosts answers, and just saying that Strat is lying.

Pretty easy thing to know that one of the bussed people are dead, when you are part of the Mafia.

Are you online now?

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

@Northrend, if Strat lied about being bussed then Dalaran will be forced to kill Strat regardless of alignment most likely. If Dalaran is vig, he shoots obvious scum. If Dalaran is blue scum, he shoots Orange scum Strat as he can't win if they are alive. If Dalaran is orange scum, they are forced to kill Strat to save Dalaran after his claim because there will be no redirector left to stop his kill. If Dalaran and Strat are scum on the same side, then they would have to shoot themselves, net win for us. It's not like we're discounting Strat being scum, I just see no way for him to be alive come daybreak.

The fact that this is unanimous is not surprising to me either. There isn't much defending once Andorhal bungled his claim and I don't think any scum would want to be associated with Andorhal.

I don't see how this could be the last meaningful play of the game. Regardless of Dalaran's alignment.

Dalaran is town scenario

9 alive after Andorhal lynch
Orange and Blue kill a townie. Dalaran shoots Stratholme.
6 alive

This only fails if neither Andorhal nor Stratholme are orange scum. Then they'd have majority. This also means that North has managed to detect one team out of existence while the other team just sat under the radar... I find this remote.

Dalaran is Orange Scum and not a Vig at all
9 alive with Andorhal lynched
Blue scum kill a townie - 8
Dalaran "shoots" Stratholme - 7 alive

We have 7 alive and an opportunity to lynch orange scum (even supposing neither Andorhal nor Stratholme were orange scum).


Dalaran is blue scum
9 alive
Orange kills a townie
Dalaran shoots Stratholme for cover

7 alive at daybreak

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

:/

If witch occurs first in OoO (and that is the case), then the Escort would visit whoever the witch picked. Then the bus driver would act. Pretty clear.

[Spider]

What the fuck was that? What Colour do you claim me to be? Apart from my real colour green.

[Spider]

If witch occurs first in OoO (and that is the case), then the Escort would visit whoever the witch picked. Then the bus driver would act. Pretty clear.

I know that -Now- but before, I did not think the OoO worked like that. I thought that the Order only happens when 1 misdirector primary targets the other.

I am certain that Strat is scum.

But you ignore all my reasonsing, like I never said them. You dont want to bring them up because I'm right.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Yeah. They are both probably scum.

I'm saying that Sheriff could be tracker. Because 3 invest roles sound a little much. And that he could of easily followed the begulier to watch the mafia kill.

The beguiler was role blocked N1 so a tracker would not have found anything.

Why would you suppose someone that claimed bussed, when you didn't bus them was town? That's the assumption you went to.

This is an outstanding point. Its a very illogical assumption by Androhal that he held to. The much more logical assumption would be if the sheriff was witched. Although we could also draw out the fact that every single night action has been exactly as intended. The only inconsistency we have is plague which would speak to the probability of a framer. If there was a witch I would expect them to target the sheriff every night as opposed to some random nonsense on an unclaimed player with the epic amount of PR's floating around. That is just rubbish.

Also Strat is probably just lying flat out. I believe you did invest him and he is mafia. That he was not bussed at all.

All that said Strat is probably the safer lynch with a sheriff peek on him and him claiming conflicting feedback. But I really think they are both scum so I am down to lynch either of them.

Marshall, Please reveal for a group lynch.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

What the fuck was that? What Colour do you claim me to be? Apart from my real colour green.

You're scum. I don't need to know you're color to address Northrend's concern that the game could be over if you're lynched and actually are town. I can step outside of my own position for a moment to address that.

Also, just saying Strat is lying is not reasoning. The fact you now suddenly are pushing that is actually evidence of it being a last resort argument.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Dalaran, why do you think there's a Marshall?

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Btw, Dalaran, reread the setup, or stop faking being dumb!town. I can see through that. Marshall isn't even in the setup.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Dalaran, why do you think there's a Marshall?

I do not. I just wish there was. I don't even think there is one in the setup although I could be wrong.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Btw, Dalaran, reread the setup, or stop faking being dumb!town. I can see through that. Marshall isn't even in the setup.

Lol

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Why do you think that Strat is the "safer" lynch when Androhal can ensure that Northrend is dead by daybreak?

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

To be clear,

The plan should be lynch Andorhal.
Shoot Stratholme.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Why do you think that Strat is the "safer" lynch when Androhal can ensure that Northrend is dead by daybreak?

As far as alignment. Just given what we have we can say Strat has claimed feedback that conflicts with what another PR claims. Also strat came up as mafia on a sheriff peek. These things make him a safer alignment peg than Androhal

Although I am willing to hammer Androhal. I read them both as scum from todays interaction.

[M-FM Northrend]

Lol

LOL!!!!

The Marshall has revealed himself!

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

As far as alignment. Just given what we have we can say Strat has claimed feedback that conflicts with what another PR claims. Also strat came up as mafia on a sheriff peek. These things make him a safer alignment peg than Androhal

Although I am willing to hammer Androhal. I read them both as scum from todays interaction.

I agree that both are likely scum.

Supposing arguendo, that there's a greater chance of Strat being lying scum (disagree). Risk/reward favors removing a scum bus driver as you can handle Stratholme.
Meanwhile if Andorhal is scum, you can't shoot him because he'll just bus himself with North or some stupid shit like that.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Parker now has four votes and will proceed to make the hammer five minutes until deadline until scum freak out and shoot her.

[M-FM Northrend]

I agree that both are likely scum.

Supposing arguendo, that there's a greater chance of Strat being lying scum (disagree). Risk/reward favors removing a scum bus driver as you can handle Stratholme.
Meanwhile if Andorhal is scum, you can't shoot him because he'll just bus himself with North or some stupid shit like that.

The biggest scum power threat for sure.

I finally understand your concern regarding Strat dying tonight no matter the case.

Whatever Andorhal flips, Strat will be killed tonight.

At least one Mafia will be killed by today's actions, which is quite good. But it requires Andorhal to be lynched to ensure bussing does not occur.

What is the scenario where Andorhal and Strat are on the same Mafia team and there was just a slip up in the bussed claim?

[Spider]

Fuck this game and Fuck my Lurking Scum Team

First Night, I could not even use the chat, because my laptop was dead and my phone refused to pass the capitoa.
They sent me for the kill, but I already PM'd who I was swapping. So no Kill happened, because host lets own choices over the others and offered no help with the chat issue.

Second night, I made him to use Beguiler because he was Lurking scummy fuck, and I still bussed. There was no night chat since he didn't even show up/

Third night, Fuck the Shit. Screwed as fuck. So I play Bus Driver. Save a Town.

Fourth night, Continue to play Bus Driver.
I had no choice, going around killing people was worthless because I was bound to get caught.
My Fucks go out to Invincible and that other wanker. Why the Enforcer used his ability randomly yet the Beguiler thought to save his I've no idea.


I am Chaffer. And My bus Claims are completely true. Strat is 100% Orange Scum

[Spider]

Lord is neither Orange or Blue Mafia.

[M-FM Northrend]

We can assume with the doc claim that Doc will also be killed tonight by Strat (or his faction) tonight.

Assuming after tonight we are 2 Mafia lighter, leaving us with presumably 2 Mafia left (of the same faction), that would put us at 5 v 2 with 1 KPN. I'm going to be incredibly speculative of Dalaran should Strat not die tonight.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

The biggest scum power threat for sure.

I finally understand your concern regarding Strat dying tonight no matter the case.

Whatever Andorhal flips, Strat will be killed tonight.

At least one Mafia will be killed by today's actions, which is quite good. But it requires Andorhal to be lynched to ensure bussing does not occur.

What is the scenario where Andorhal and Strat are on the same Mafia team and there was just a slip up in the bussed claim?

They have night chat and Strat just makes up being bussed anyway... why? Why wouldn't Andorhal just go along with said bus rather than claiming to bus the dead guy? Why not claim to bus Strat with an actual town, ensuring a mislynch?

No. They are not likely on the same team.

[Spider]

Spend the rest of the day. Dont Lynch Early.

I am happy to offer whatever you want from me, to kill the Orange Mafia.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

We can assume with the doc claim that Doc will also be killed tonight by Strat (or his faction) tonight.

Assuming after tonight we are 2 Mafia lighter, leaving us with presumably 2 Mafia left (of the same faction), that would put us at 5 v 2 with 1 KPN. I'm going to be incredibly speculative of Dalaran should Strat not die tonight.

Indeed.

[M-FM Northrend]

Lord is neither Orange or Blue Mafia.

Yeah that's what I thought when I heard you claim that. Honestly that was your biggest tell. ;-)

[Spider]

Yeah that's what I thought when I heard you claim that. Honestly that was your biggest tell. ;-)

Pity me. I had terrible team mates

[M-FM Northrend]

Fuck this game and Fuck my Lurking Scum Team

First Night, I could not even use the chat, because my laptop was dead and my phone refused to pass the capitoa.
They sent me for the kill, but I already PM'd who I was swapping. So no Kill happened, because host lets own choices over the others and offered no help with the chat issue.

Second night, I made him to use Beguiler because he was Lurking scummy fuck, and I still bussed. There was no night chat since he didn't even show up/

Third night, Fuck the Shit. Screwed as fuck. So I play Bus Driver. Save a Town.

Fourth night, Continue to play Bus Driver.
I had no choice, going around killing people was worthless because I was bound to get caught.
My Fucks go out to Invincible and that other wanker. Why the Enforcer used his ability randomly yet the Beguiler thought to save his I've no idea.


I am Chaffer. And My bus Claims are completely true. Strat is 100% Orange Scum

I'm sorry Ando. That's really shitty. Your faction had the most promise.

On the other hand, I'm relieved to know Orange has the framer, and we can piece the rest from here more clearly.

[Spider]

Worst thing is. My bus Claims are true, but I had to suspect a witch too much.

Strat was never bussed. Its his falut I revealed. I hope he dies.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Pity me. I had terrible team mates

Actually, I don't think you're all dead. It makes much more sense that you recruited a scumfuck N1 than totally failed to submit a kill. Looks like classic boned scum redirection to me. Why should we trust you now that you've claimed scum?

To be fair, you played a good game and you're going down swinging which I absolutely respect.

@North, I do think we can piece this out.

We know that Orange must be more powerful than the Blue team. Orange has framer. We can eliminate witch, corrupt journalist, mafia architect, and acolyte (because that's too little power).

[M-FM Northrend]

Ok, with scourge anhialated, we can discuss Legion.

I think it's safe to say there is a framer.

Knowing this, the killer and framer targetted Andorhal, thus killing Sunstrider AND eliminating his last will.

The question remains what the final Mafia action could have been? We'll soon see, but I'm going to assume we working with Stratholme's Consig. The killing role was deemed not worth using as an action, so it's a weak Mafia PR, limited use PR, or straight up Godfather.

I'm going to assume Godfather as it would allow for evening out the teams.

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

Godfather does make sense, as Beguiler is essentially a weaker Godfather. I was actually leaning more towards hitman though. Blue scum is all about redirection. Having a one shot kill that would bypass all redirection and healing might be more useful. Then again, both could be in play but that makes orange a little weak and means all investigators are town.