M-FM XXIV Civilization Gamethread

[Instagram]

Instagram thanks for sharing. Who is the SK in your analysis so far?

Kik -- Assume Temple Run is peaceful

Then assume the worst and three scum exist in the game and three townie deaths.

Town, SK, Researcher, Mafia
This results in 4,1,1,3 with 5 to lynch any lynch is town or SK that goes through more than likely assuming mayor death.
Therefore we're looking at 2 (or 3 if Quizup Detainer scum) townie deaths.

Then 1/2,1,1,3 which is again any lynch results in Serial killer/town dieing because mafia controls it.
SK can only kill one mafia and I'm pretty sure they wouldn't hit a townie at this point (if they do its' obvs game over)
Assuming if Quizup Detainer scum they have only one charge then one townie remains at the end of day or 0 if two charges/SK does hit townie.

If they hit scum then it is
0/1,1,1,3

Mafia immediately votes to lynch the serial killer.

They have to aim for mafia to get the two kills. From the kill pattern we can determine who it is. The SK I believe has to hit at least one scum tonight if they want to win.

The nature of my version of vote analysis does not have the capability of detecting neutral killers, my system is based on the knowledge of their team. Unless they are blatantly voting from a scum point of view it is impossible for me to distinguish a neutral from a citizen.

[Cut the Rope]

The nature of my version of vote analysis does not have the capability of detecting neutral killers, my system is based on the knowledge of their team. Unless they are blatantly voting from a scum point of view it is impossible for me to distinguish a neutral from a citizen.

Okay...Then what does your gut tell you?

[Instagram]

Okay...Then what does your gut tell you?

Deduction, I can get it down to these 3 (Bloons TD,Angry Birds,Piano Tiles), my gut suggests Bloons TD.

This of course assumes that my vote analysis correctly identified the Warmonger team.

[Cut the Rope]

Deduction, I can get it down to these 3 (Bloons TD,Angry Birds,Piano Tiles), my gut suggests Bloons TD.

This of course assumes that my vote analysis correctly identified the Warmonger team.

LOL Of course...Now can you please explain your reads? With reasons? Almost every way I see it Kik is town and I can't get anything useful out of Quizup. Maybe because they are potential scum. The fact they aren't on this Temple Run lynch scares me greatly.

[Cut the Rope]

Reasons are like, this awesome tool in mafia, like, used to like, convince people, like, to do stuff. XD *done in a fake Valley girl accent intentionally*

[Instagram]

LOL Of course...Now can you please explain your reads? With reasons? Almost every way I see it Kik is town and I can't get anything useful out of Quizup. Maybe because they are potential scum. The fact they aren't on this Temple Run lynch scares me greatly.

I was already working on a formalized vote analysis. I'd like to stick with that because I'm more confident in it than I am my reads. And yes it's late enough in the game that the reason for me hiding my reads is irrelevant so I'd be more than happy to explain in detail on anyone you would like.

[Cut the Rope]

I was already working on a formalized vote analysis. I'd like to stick with that because I'm more confident in it than I am my reads. And yes it's late enough in the game that the reason for me hiding my reads is irrelevant so I'd be more than happy to explain in detail on anyone you would like.

1) Why is Quizup town? They were on Vine and Fall Down?
2) Why is Kik scum?
3) Why is 2048 scum and not the SK?

[Cut the Rope]

Oh and why are you convinced Fall Down isn't an actor? No last will.

[Cut the Rope]

TBH Kik not being on this Temple Run lynch scares me that they aren't seeing the bigger picture:

1) If town it helps us to likely get another kill. Yes if Temple Run is peaceful which i doubt, then bodies will be strewn over. But the odds of 0 mafia deaths are slim to none IMO because then the serial killer is in trouble and in the same shitty boat town is.

2) If scum it would be in his own survival to be on the Temple Run lynch.

I am having trouble understanding why he is not on it.

[Cut the Rope]

Plus the whole Temple Run lying about how much production they put into WC doesn't make sense to me. Very much points to a liar and therefore likely scum...and no I have not forgotten about Instagram's lie it's just more likely to lynch Temple Run scum.

Anywho I'm going to step away for a bit to eat and maybe a nap.

[Instagram]

Day 2 Lynch on Vine: What needs to be understood about this lynch is what information the warmongers likely had. I would like to direct attention to this post by Tapatalk to start of the meta behind this lynch.

Sent from my still medically living assistant Steve using Tapatalk

In this post one can conclude a doctor soft claim from Tapatalk as an explanation for his death, by the fact that both Warmongers and Doomsday attacked Tapatalk it seems to have been somewhat obvious amongst scum roles. Add this to the fact the Warmonger know that Vine is not a Warmonger. Warmongers have a very good reason to have Vine lynched. It does present a risk of killing the Doomsday too early, but the odds are clearly in their favor.

Based on this meta, I concluded that Warmongers are likely to be on this lynch. It also presents plausibility for the Doomsday to be on the lynch, in that case making Angry Birds the Doomsday, however this is inconclusive because there are 4 Warmongers for the Doomsday to worry about.

Vine (10 [L-0]): Words with Friends, Cut the Rope, Kik, Quizup, Fruit Ninja, Temple Run, Angry Birds?, Candy Crush Saga (Mayor)

Note: The reason for Quizup and Cut the Rope as marked as town is explained in the next section.

Day 3 Lynch on Fall Down: What needs to be understood about this lynch is the gambit immediately preceding it. Prior to this lynch we were scattered. I presented a gambit that unified the town on Cut the Rope, but retracted my claim leaving us wondering where to turn. This created a very rapid train on Fall Down on completely unfounded logic. (Yes, after reviewing the theory I had based my vote on I found it to be impossible as Tailor isn't even the role list....) Because of this I find it highly unlikely for Warmongers to be sitting on this train. HOWEVER, there came a time when the train slowed down and the Warmongers may have desired to push the lynch. My conclusion is that the earlier in the train the less likely to be Warmonger.

Two votes I'd like to mention specifically on this link are

baaaahhh

-vote Fall Down

Claimed sheep, he is voting at the end after everyone has voted. He indicates no belief in the logic thereby covering himself in the case of a mis-lynch. This could be because he is a peaceseeker that really wants a lynch to go through or a warmonger that would like to protect himself.

I noticed Fall Down is L-1
should I hammer?

done reading

-vote Fall Down

Same argument applies as with 2048. In this case the evidence is stronger however because it is the hammer, and also because of his participation in the mis-lynch on Vine.

With that said my final conclusion is that everyone on this train is Peaceseeker with the exception of 2048 and Temple Run.

Fall Down (8 [L-0]): Quizup, Clash of Clans, Instagram, Flappy Bird, Cut the Rope, 4pics1word, 2048?, Temple Run

In conclusion we determine a scum team of Temple Run, Words with Friends, Kik, with either 2048, or Angry Birds for the final warmonger.

We also conclude that Quizup, Clash of Clans, Instagram, Flappy Bird, Cut the Rope, and 4pics1word are likely peaceseeker.

[Instagram]

Oh and why are you convinced Fall Down isn't an actor? No last will.

See my argument for why his alignment is actually irrelevant.

[Kik]

Day 2 Lynch on Vine: What needs to be understood about this lynch is what information the warmongers likely had. I would like to direct attention to this post by Tapatalk to start of the meta behind this lynch.



In this post one can conclude a doctor soft claim from Tapatalk as an explanation for his death, by the fact that both Warmongers and Doomsday attacked Tapatalk it seems to have been somewhat obvious amongst scum roles. Add this to the fact the Warmonger know that Vine is not a Warmonger. Warmongers have a very good reason to have Vine lynched. It does present a risk of killing the Doomsday too early, but the odds are clearly in their favor.

Based on this meta, I concluded that Warmongers are likely to be on this lynch. It also presents plausibility for the Doomsday to be on the lynch, in that case making Angry Birds the Doomsday, however this is inconclusive because there are 4 Warmongers for the Doomsday to worry about.

Vine (10 [L-0]): Words with Friends, Cut the Rope, Kik, Quizup, Fruit Ninja, Temple Run, Angry Birds?, Candy Crush Saga (Mayor)

Note: The reason for Quizup and Cut the Rope as marked as town is explained in the next section.

Day 3 Lynch on Fall Down: What needs to be understood about this lynch is the gambit immediately preceding it. Prior to this lynch we were scattered. I presented a gambit that unified the town on Cut the Rope, but retracted my claim leaving us wondering where to turn. This created a very rapid train on Fall Down on completely unfounded logic. (Yes, after reviewing the theory I had based my vote on I found it to be impossible as Tailor isn't even the role list....) Because of this I find it highly unlikely for Warmongers to be sitting on this train. HOWEVER, there came a time when the train slowed down and the Warmongers may have desired to push the lynch. My conclusion is that the earlier in the train the less likely to be Warmonger.

Two votes I'd like to mention specifically on this link are



Claimed sheep, he is voting at the end after everyone has voted. He indicates no belief in the logic thereby covering himself in the case of a mis-lynch. This could be because he is a peaceseeker that really wants a lynch to go through or a warmonger that would like to protect himself.





Same argument applies as with 2048. In this case the evidence is stronger however because it is the hammer, and also because of his participation in the mis-lynch on Vine.

With that said my final conclusion is that everyone on this train is Peaceseeker with the exception of 2048 and Temple Run.

Fall Down (8 [L-0]): Quizup, Clash of Clans, Instagram, Flappy Bird, Cut the Rope, 4pics1word, 2048?, Temple Run

In conclusion we determine a scum team of Temple Run, Words with Friends, Kik, with either 2048, or Angry Birds for the final warmonger.

We also conclude that Quizup, Clash of Clans, Instagram, Flappy Bird, Cut the Rope, and 4pics1word are likely peaceseeker.

None of this makes any sense. It's all based on the premise that Tapatalk's post was interpreted as a doc softclaim, which I highly doubt.

[Cut the Rope]

None of this makes any sense. It's all based on the premise that Tapatalk's post was interpreted as a doc softclaim, which I highly doubt.

I agree. Even if both noticed the soft claim and a protective role (if one is here which I doubt) didn't see it I can easily see Warmongers at the start of the Fall Down train. The introductory analysis to me makes little sense especially when combined with d1 play from you. I questioned why both groups went after the same person and you didn't bring this up? This would mean all of your d1 & d2 & d3 (almost all) were useless.

Kik - I think it is down to this. The rest of town IMO is not active enough to get Angry Birds tomorrow. I don't see that happening. I think it is get on the Temple Run train early enough for Candy Crush to hammer or you are probably dead. In essence if you are town then you have to choose in whether or not you trust me in that Temple Run is Scum or we lose a Townie very likely on execution and then rely on the SK to hit Scum in one hit. That scares me.

[Cut the Rope]

Fall Don't alignment inherently matters because of if we are at Scum die or we are boned territory. With how this discussion is going I seriously hope Fall Down was an actor because I don't know if we will get Temple Run Scum.

[Cut the Rope]

Fall Down* sorry bad spell check

[2048]

Still find it funny that you insist on me being either mafia or sk.

[Cut the Rope]

Some things just add up in the absence of space or maybe I don't. I am keeping what I think close to the vest because of one of your posts. ;) Assuming you are town, listen for the absence. What I mean is there.

[Cut the Rope]

The most likely explanation is that you are the SK. It is hard for me to find another viable suspect.

[Cut the Rope]

And if you were town I would expect your vote somewhere like Temple Run.

[Kik]

I'm about to head to work, and given this town's propensity for early hammers, I may not be around again before day's end unless I get some time during lunch. So just in case, I'm switching my vote to Temple Run.

-vote Temple Run

I've decided that since town didn't really discuss WC, Temple Run getting the extra vote is more likely a sign of scum than town. Plus, looking back at his posts, they've mostly been worthless, so I doubt someone who has been useless to town during the day has secretly spent their production at night to try and benefit town. It doesn't add up.

[Angry Birds]

If we lynch another peacekeeper today we're in trouble, but we really need to get rid of some scum.

[vote]Temple Run[vote/]

[Angry Birds]

-vote Temple Run

[Temple Run]

RIP town

"Even if he's peaceful it will still benefit the town"- anyone who agrees with this shit is either scum or cut the rope. And there's only one cut the rope

[Fruit Ninja]

I wanna hammer. But sense I won't have access to internet

-vote Temple Run

[Cut the Rope]

Temple Run -- I can understand being frustrated even pissed off at me, but you need to remember it's not about YOUR survival; it's about the town's survival. A post that just says "RIP town" doesn't benefit or help us. Let us learn from our mistake. This day has the ability to be one of the most pivotal there is. Do not let it go to waste please.

If you are scum, then we all (minus scum) dance. Otherwise....

(The rest of this post assumes you are peaceful and are lynched)
After all on the surface two kills to the Serial Killer looks bad. This is assuming you leave a last will that contains useful honest information. Hell, feel free to throw in a few FUCK YOU CUT THE ROPE's if you want. The case for you being scum is pretty damn airtight as it sits, but your last will has the opportunity to break this shit wide open if peaceful. Then when you are ready, seppuku yourself.

The reason being is that if the Mayor comes on, the right thing for me to do is ask them to hammer because you are likely scum. If you have your last will ready and turned in and then seppuku we know we get valuable information as town going into the night phase and the serial killer has more of a chance of hitting scum with their two shots.

[2048]

Gah, I wanted to hammer but you made it too early...

[Cut the Rope]

2048 -- I have a sneaking suspicion you may still be able to hammer. Please check back later in the day and see if Temple or the Mayor have finished this. I don't want to rely on the mayor hammering unless I have to and from the anger in Temple Run's post I'm not sure a town temple will self vote, and I know a scum Temple won't self vote. It would be nice to ensure we don't lose Kik to someone that really doesn't want to use the information in front of them.

[Cut the Rope]

@Temple Run -- This is L1 - Anyone who has not voted for you may intend to hammer. Please consider this intent to hammer post as if anyone new comes online or someone who is not online that has not voted for you appears in the users online information I intend to ask them to hammer and cut further discussion to ensure the lynch that IMO is the best thing for town.

[Instagram]

None of this makes any sense. It's all based on the premise that Tapatalk's post was interpreted as a doc softclaim, which I highly doubt.

I could be wrong, but I figured the fact he was attacked by both scum teams essentially proved that premise. I can't imagine why he would have been killed otherwise.

[Instagram]

Oh snaz, this new vote pattern changes things, I don't understand why Kik and Angry Birds would vote Temple Run if my vote analysis is correct.

-unvote

[Quizup]

Nah, unless Temple Run can explain why he lied about the amount of production he put into the WC, I'll be hammering.

Rope: What do you make of the fact that Fruit Ninja is helping the lynch go through?

[Cut the Rope]

@Quizup: We need Instagram back on so you can vote. Let's worry about the bigger problems first.

@Instagram: You said it yourself. Lynch all liars. Temple Run is a liar.

[Cut the Rope]

Oh snaz, this new vote pattern changes things, I don't understand why Kik and Angry Birds would vote Temple Run if my vote analysis is correct.

-unvote

Your vote analysis IMO was wrong because it didn't take into account all potential angles. There has to be a possibility of Fall Down scum because of the no last will. It is possible that they were new but it is also possible they were scum. We gotta get rid of the liars.

[Instagram]

@Quizup: We need Instagram back on so you can vote. Let's worry about the bigger problems first.

@Instagram: You said it yourself. Lynch all liars. Temple Run is a liar.

I don't believe in the policy of lynch all liars, or I myself would not have lied. Amirite?

[Cut the Rope]

I don't believe in the policy of lynch all liars, or I myself would not have lied. Amirite?

OMG Please seriously...Talk like a mature adult. *sigh*

Temple Run has a pretty damning case on their own. The train in itself looks like town coming together to do the right thing. You backing out has me incredibly nervous here.

[Instagram]

Your vote analysis IMO was wrong because it didn't take into account all potential angles. There has to be a possibility of Fall Down scum because of the no last will. It is possible that they were new but it is also possible they were scum. We gotta get rid of the liars.

The possibility of Fall Down warmonger leads to the same analysis as if he were town with the exception of there only being 2 remaining warmongers. That's why I said it is mostly irrelevant, but yes it looks like it may be wrong anyways, maybe I underestimated the willingness of scum to back an illogical lynch. I will take a bit to review that possibility and see what results.

[Cut the Rope]

The possibility of Fall Down warmonger leads to the same analysis as if he were town with the exception of there only being 2 remaining warmongers. That's why I said it is mostly irrelevant, but yes it looks like it may be wrong anyways, maybe I underestimated the willingness of scum to back an illogical lynch. I will take a bit to review that possibility and see what results.

Or the short answer is they aren't scum and Temple Run and one to two other people are.

[Instagram]

Preliminary analysis reveals insufficient information for analysis under the assumption that warmongers would back an illogical lynch.

[Bloons TD]

ok, great! I guess there is nothing more I can do.

-unvote

I have a bad feeling about this temple run lynch. I warned you too.
If we lynch wrong today, for sake of that Quiz "jailor" claim, we will likely be under great pressure of lynch every day.
That is exactly what scums would love to happen.

How about we just do not lynch, and let QuizUp make it up?

Then tomorrow,
Either QuizUp became confirmed if he luckily killed a warmonger,
Or he execute doomday killer, that gave us great advantage too.
Or he didn't execute, but block a person at night, moderate effort, but at the very least we know he had one charge and he didn't risk it.

The worst scenario is that he execute a peacekeeper,
But let's say we have 3 days of analysis already, and QuizUp is not likely fuck up, if he was a peacekeeper that is.


So how about this,
we risk a No-lynch, so that we gain knowledge about QuizUp and and possible scum kill, possible scum block?
Block also come in handy in case that CuttheRope, SHE claimed there are likely a scientist.

I see all those much much more plausible than the temple run lynch.

Tmeple run lynch is bloody predictable, I think scums kills Coc because they predict the game will go that way.

I think we need make a change somehow.

[Bloons TD]

@ instagram, if you pinned kik and angry bird on the same team then why surprise if they both vote temple run?
Even if it is like you said, temple run is also a scum, then
Temple run is a predictable lynch, if scums can not avoid it, they will fuel it.
It is just obvious.

But seriously, your vision is bloody different than others.

[Instagram]

@ instagram, if you pinned kik and angry bird on the same team then why surprise if they both vote temple run?
Even if it is like you said, temple run is also a scum, then
Temple run is a predictable lynch, if scums can not avoid it, they will fuel it.
It is just obvious.

But seriously, your vision is bloody different than others.

It doesn't surprise me they vote together, it surprises me that both are willing to vote Temple Run whom my analysis indicated was probably aligned with both of them.

[Bloons TD]

I hope my post at least convinced the mayor so he won't hammer, and lurkers/afkers are hopeless anyway.
L-2

yea, right.

[Cut the Rope]

@Bloons TD: Hey Bloons! Nice to see you online!
Bloons, the mechanics DICTATE a scientist exist.

1) The only two roles that can block feedback are a scientist and a researcher.
2) The scientist can only visit ONE person a night according to the set up to remove feedback. The researcher blocks two people with X=2.
3) Four people claimed NO feedback. This means one of them is a liar.

Two of them, myself and Candy Crush, are absolutely town.
The other two Quizup and 2048 are not.

Leaving the lynch in the hands of potential scum is not something I want to do, either 2048 who seems hesitant to lynch Temple Run or Quizup who may be town seeing the light of day or may be scum wanting the no lynch. It was suspicious the intent to hammer came after Instagram's no vote.


@Instagram: Then please put your vote back on Temple Run as they have the most damning case against them. You said it yourself you put in 18 production (ugh why???!) and you are not the top contributor. Kik summarized it well when I cannot see town doing that. Although you quite frankly are an enigma with your fake sheriff claim and people still think you are town.

[Bloons TD]

It doesn't surprise me they vote together, it surprises me that both are willing to vote Temple Run whom my analysis indicated was probably aligned with both of them.

Then that's pretty simple, they are both town and you are wrong. How about that? Though I don't quite feel like it.
I think kik and angery birds are belongs to different team, kill one will get us know the other.---which is why I would kill angry bird.
Kill temple run get us literally nothing, unless he is doomsdaykiller, then we might laugh loud and laugh high.

[Cut the Rope]

Then that's pretty simple, they are both town and you are wrong. How about that? Though I don't quite feel like it.
I think kik and angery birds are belongs to different team, kill one will get us know the other.---which is why I would kill angry bird.
Kill temple run get us literally nothing, unless he is doomsdaykiller, then we might laugh loud and laugh high.

This is where I disagree with you Bloons. Temple Run's death if scum is awesome.
Temple Run's death if peaceful almost confirms a scum team. I don't want to say which but I think things will become pretty clear.
A no lynch confirms someone as scum to me. So it is all just a wait and see game to see what Instagram does.

[Bloons TD]

@cut the rope, yeas, I currently think Scientist is a good option, especially judging that goddamn no last will peep. The best explaination other than they derpped hard is, They might be blocked as well.
I recognize your effort on that and that is the primary reason why I think you are much much better than QuizUp, despite his claim is stronger than yours.

For the best, if QuizUp execute a warscientist, that means,

QuizUp is confirmed town, for kill a warscientist,
and you are confirmed town too, for being targeted by scientist.

Isn't that nicer than lynch temple run?

[Bloons TD]

This is where I disagree with you Bloons. Temple Run's death if scum is awesome.
Temple Run's death if peaceful almost confirms a scum team. I don't want to say which but I think things will become pretty clear.
A no lynch confirms someone as scum to me. So it is all just a wait and see game to see what Instagram does.

That was not my read. I was attempting to talking through instagram's point of view.
I had Temple run as my next primary lynch after reading (remember my first few post today?)
but Coc's death make me grow suspicion on that.

[Quizup]

Hey Rope, are you doomsday?

[Bloons TD]

Hey Rope, are you doomsday?

What da fuck is that? Is your head squeezed by door? Lol