M-FM XXIV Civilization Gamethread

[2048]

And I honestly don't blame you. Hell if you want to lynch me to prove I'm the Coroner go right ahead.

Like that is even a sane option.

[2048]

-vote Kik

I am throwing what I feel needs to be done.... May there be no more mistakes...

[Cut the Rope]

-vote Kik

I am throwing what I feel needs to be done.... May there be no more mistakes...

Looks like Kik town lynch likely...beautiful (sarcasm)

Once 4 pics 1 word and Fruit Ninja add their votes to Kik more than likely I'll hammer...But I won't hammer Kik until I know we can't do the right thing in the Instagram lynch. The one person who I said was scum since day fucking one....

And mafia/SK one of you please kill Piano Tiles so we can actually HAVE a winner. Otherwise if they don't post anything it may be another 24 hours after this death before a winner can be chosen.

[2048]

Looks like Kik town lynch likely...beautiful (sarcasm)

Once 4 pics 1 word and Fruit Ninja add their votes to Kik more than likely I'll hammer...But I won't hammer Kik until I know we can't do the right thing in the Instagram lynch. The one person who I said was scum since day fucking one....

And mafia/SK one of you please kill Piano Tiles so we can actually HAVE a winner. Otherwise if they don't post anything it may be another 24 hours after this death before a winner can be chosen.

Oh I always thought you were scum since Day 1 too

[Cut the Rope]

Oh I always thought you were scum since Day 1 too

LOL HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Please tell me that was a joke. :P Only Instagram and Vine ever voted for me XD

[2048]

LOL HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Please tell me that was a joke. :P Only Instagram and Vine ever voted for me XD

Oh I know. Course I would have never said anything. You've been in my last will. The only evidence I have against you is the bad lynches.

[Cut the Rope]

LOL The sad thing is I'm pretty sure if you are town I know what your role is which makes this all the more comical.

[2048]

LOL The sad thing is I'm pretty sure if you are town I know what your role is which makes this all the more comical.

If only

[Cut the Rope]

2048 -- yeah we'll see when you die more than likely tonight. :P

And I know why Instagram fake sheriff'd me too this is all just really really depressingly bad now how bad I derped now that I'm pretty sure I've broken the game. *blush*


Instagram -- Really? You couldn't kill me??!

[Cut the Rope]

Oh and Quizup --- Instagram is NOT TOWN! THEY ARE NOT PEACEFUL :P That's the one thing I got right XD Everything else I should have trusted you on.

*leaves a should have listened wreath on Quizup's grave during the day*

[Cut the Rope]

Ctr should have listened**

[Instagram]

2048 -- yeah we'll see when you die more than likely tonight. :P

And I know why Instagram fake sheriff'd me too this is all just really really depressingly bad now how bad I derped now that I'm pretty sure I've broken the game. *blush*


Instagram -- Really? You couldn't kill me??!

Okay, I thought you'd finally figured it out until the last sentence there.

[Instagram]

Btw, The cross vote there just broke open the game. I'm going to place my vote on

-vote Angry Birds

. I'm putting my faith in you Kik. Don't mess this up.

[Cut the Rope]

Okay, I thought you'd finally figured it out until the last sentence there.

*sigh* You are the SK...

And I know why you did what you did. So when you win more than likely I will congratulate you.

@2048 -- I'll hammer whoever has 4 votes tomorrow...I just want the game to go forward at this point since we can't win without lynching Instagram or Piano Tiles realistically and that isn't going to happen :P

[Cut the Rope]

Ohhhhhhhhhhh wait........what if we no lynch twice and the SK hits scum both times...Yeah!

[Cut the Rope]

That might work Wait no....Then it's 2 townies versus the SK and Fruit Ninja.....damn it. :P

[Cut the Rope]

OMG we can still win if we no lynch *squee* We need a lot of luck though. I think we can do it.

[Cut the Rope]

Yeah no I'm not hammering...One last hail mary!

[Cut the Rope]

ALL TOWNIES: I know I normally don't discuss production but if we all pull production together on Hunger games a townie might just get a gun that lets us WIN

[Cut the Rope]

So we no lynch to force enough production...Then a townie gets a gun and then does the one kill that might win us the game

[Cut the Rope]

-vote skip

[Cut the Rope]

*tries and then goes to sleep questioning her sanity*

[Piano Tiles]

CTR you seem to e unaware I have been busy with rl and work. I have been slowly glancing through but all of your theories and ideas have been wrong at each turn. You think you know my role? Go ahead guess. I get off work soon and will be around for tomorrow. All of your ideas can easily be debunked.

[2048]

the odds of SK hitting only mafia....?

[Piano Tiles]

the odds of SK hitting only mafia....?

player list:

Kik
Instagram
Angry Birds
2048
4pics1word
Cut The Rope
Fruit Ninja
Piano Tiles

each scenario:

no lynch: 2 scums, neutral, sk, 4 towns. Leaves 2/6 or 1/3 = 33%
lynch scum: 1 scum, neutral, sk, 4 towns. Leaves 1/5 = 25%
Lynch town (PR): 2 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns: 2/5 = 40%
Lynch town (Peacekeeper): 2 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns: 2/5 again? or would that be 4/5
Lynch SK: irrelevant
Lynch neutral: 2 scums, sk, 4 towns: 2/6 or 1/3 = 33%

[2048]

So basically CtR is saying not to lynch anyone.....
The results being there is a 33% chance SK will kill a mafia. I'm take that as a 2/5 chance by leaving the researcher out. So 40% chance to kill ONE mafia.
Mean while mafia would kill 1 town.(I do not see a reason for the SK to kill the researcher)
Leave either:
1 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns. 40% chance
OR
2 scums, neutral sk, 2 towns. 60% chance

Going with the second, town lost.

Even with a first....it's still a bad hit for town at only half votes....

I believe a no lynch is basically throwing in the towel for town and can't accept it.

[2048]

We HAVE to lynch scum today or I only see a BAD END

[Piano Tiles]

So basically CtR is saying not to lynch anyone.....
The results being there is a 33% chance SK will kill a mafia. I'm take that as a 2/5 chance by leaving the researcher out. So 40% chance to kill ONE mafia.
Mean while mafia would kill 1 town.(I do not see a reason for the SK to kill the researcher)
Leave either:
1 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns. 40% chance
OR
2 scums, neutral sk, 2 towns. 60% chance

Going with the second, town lost.

Even with a first....it's still a bad hit for town at only half votes....

I believe a no lynch is basically throwing in the towel for town and can't accept it.

Ya but my theories are only basic level there are other thing that we could account for but i dunno how to calculate it really.

Other possible scenarios:
Mafia scums hit sk (sk is immune) sk hits town
Mafia scums and SK both hit same target
Mafia scums hit SK and dies (unlikely but possible)
Cross fire of one hits one

I mean there are others that I could probably think of. The problem is there are so many outcomes that it is near impossible (at least for me) to figure out and what would be optimal.

I agree on scum lynch, but the question is this, could we lynch neutral and still have a possible good outcome?

@CTR what is your feedback btw?

[2048]

Either way, if we don't have 2 scum die with this day and night, town will be down on votes.

[Piano Tiles]

Either way, if we don't have 2 scum die with this day and night, town will be down on votes.

Agreed, but it still begs the question, is neutral considered a scum at this phase? What do you think?

[2048]

Agreed, but it still begs the question, is neutral considered a scum at this phase? What do you think?

I am not going to make a statement on that.

[Piano Tiles]

I am not going to make a statement on that.

Fair enough.

[Cut the Rope]

@Piano Tiles -- My feedback was that Fall Down was a Detective and they weren't an actor like I had hoped as mentioned earlier today. Sorry I was a bit freak out ish should have made it clearer.

Either way, if we don't have 2 scum die with this day and night, town will be down on votes.

At least NOW we are talking and I've got a few hours of sleep to go through the night. Hooray!

1 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns. 40% chance
OR
2 scums, neutral sk, 2 towns. 60% chance

Neither of these scenarios are accurate IMO. There will LIKELY be 3 deaths (assuming we don't lynch Instagram or Piano Tiles) if we hit mafia scum.

1 for the lynchee, 1 for the SK kill, 1 for the mafia kill.
This brings us to 5 players tomorrow.

OR we have death for the lynchee and SK/mafia hit the same person.
This brings us to 6 players tomorrow.

The death of one townie is guaranteed in the NK.

(Continuing in a second)

[Cut the Rope]

So assume that we hit scum with the lynch which we have NEVER done.

1 townie guaranteed, 1 scum lost, 1 kill outstanding:

Remaining players are 1 mafia, 1 SK, 1 researcher, 3 townies
The SK either hits a townie or a mafia. Assume worst case scenario and town.
This is 1 mafia, 1 sk, 1 researcher, 2 townies.
As two kills occur in the night this is a LOSS unless the SK gets lynched. The SK and researcher are aligned. They will not permit a lynch on the SK. This means that Town has to work with mafia to hit the SK to get the three votes. Assume SK is lynched. Mafia is guaranteed a townie kill in the middle of the night.

1 mafia, 1 researcher, 1 townie. Game over as mafia votes no lynch and just waits 24 hours.

Lynching mafia scum today requires the SK to hit mafia for town to have a chance. You're literally trusting the SK AGAIN!




Neither of these scenarios includes the existence of the researcher.

So at the start of today we have 4 townies, 2 mafia scum, 1 SK, 1 researcher.
If the researcher is counted as "scum" then 4 townies versus 4 scum at the start of the day.

[Cut the Rope]

Sorry all the bottom paragraph is a copy from my notes *blush* forgot to erase it.

[Cut the Rope]

But instead...Let's look at a lynch Instagram plan.

One of two things results
1) They are peaceful like they claimed and it is likely the only true statement of the entire game.
2 townies confirmed dead (Instagram + mafia kill), 2 kills outstanding from the SK.

2 mafia remain. For the SK to have a shot at winning they have to kill at least one mafia otherwise it is 0 townies, 2 scum, 1 sk, 1 researcher. This results in scum control of the lynch. By definition, this means mafia wins as they control the lynch as they decide no lynch or lynch researcher. The SK/researcher don't have enough people to prevent control the lynch loss.

1 mafia remain. 1 townie, 1 mafia, 1 sk, 1 researcher. Townie picks to kill SK/mafia. The remaining kills the townie. Townie loss but town picks the winner.

0 mafia remain. 2 townies, 0 mafia, 1 sk, 1 researcher. If the town has been building hunger games, then the town will have the gun to shoot the serial killer. Therefore we can no lynch and win if we have the gun and the immunity is off, because SK/researcher won't let either of them get lynched.


2) They are the SK.
This slows the bleeding to one night kill a night.

3 townies, 2 mafia, 1 jester. (As demonstrated yesterday the researcher is undisputably aligned with the SK).

Townies control destiny. Even more so if we have the hunger games gun at night.

[Cut the Rope]

Either way the only way we completely control our destiny is to hit the serial killer if we lynch.

-vote Instagram

[Cut the Rope]

And yeah we likely are boned in almost every scenario at this point But this way at least feels less like being boned and gets the most enjoyment out of someone faking the sheriff claim.

[Cut the Rope]

I still blame Instagram for this loss. Admittedly I had a lot of derpage, but it's their fault IMO for fucking over town with that goddamn gambit. This way feels less powerless ya know?

[Cut the Rope]

If you don't believe me, that's fine. It's late here and I'm probably not explaining it well. I'll hammer if it's what town wants tomorrow since Instagram lynch likely won't happen but bleh damn it...

*tips the hat to Instagram who will likely win this thing*

Congratulations.

Now more sleep for me I guess since no one is online.

[4pics1word]

Ok guys, I'm here now. First thing: I got feedback blocked. With this, my last charge has gone to waste.

My thoughts to the situation: Lynching today has to happen. If we no-lynch then our influence will only diminish. We don't cripple ourselves accidentally again if we don't lynch but we let the scum factions get stronger and we can't have that happen.

As for who should be our target for today: I'm getting the SK vibe from both Instagram and Kik and I believe the Doomsday Killer is one of them. I really can't imagine Angry Birds being the DDK so I would opt for a Kik or Instagram lynch since crippling the mafia won't reduce the KPN.

And I would say not to worry CtR, you did lead mislynches and whatever else you may be "accused" of, but they always seemed valid and someone has to lead the day. Shit happens, but it would've most likely happened either way.

-vote Instagram

We can switch the votes onto the other active train if needed so for now I'm voting Instagram.

[Piano Tiles]

That was a good night sleep. Anyway looking through and catching up, I have thought about some of the stuff old players have said. Quiz was town yes, but the question is why was she killed by DDK and not warmongers. She always suspected kik. But it looks like kik was always able to slip by the radar with her due to CTR and other stuff. It could be a wifom game but I'm gonna go with the basic idea and say its kik.

-vote kik

I should be around for most of the day but will be checking in and out.

[Kik]

Sorry I've been inactive today. Work takes up a lot of my time, and when I finished working yesterday all I wanted to do was sleep. Hopefully this weekend I'll be more active assuming I survive that long.

Also just to provide some food for thought here: I see one of the main reasons people are voting instagram is that he is more likely to be sk than angry birds because angry birds is thought to most likely be mafia. But has anyone considered the possibility that maybe it was wrong to assume that Angry birds is mafia and that maybe he's actually the sk? I haven't seen the buddying between him and other players that people keep claiming to have seen. And no one has provided evidence iirc, so I feel like it's just one of those things that someone made up and then it just caught on somehow.

That being said, the votes are currently tied and if someone doesn't switch there will be a no lynch which is basically a guaranteed loss for us. And I probably won't get to post again before day ends because of work, a short lunch break, and getting off at the same time day ends. So I'm going to put my vote on instagram so that at least there is a chance of a lynch today, which means a chance (albeit small) of victory. I really hope you're right about this one, CtR.

-vote instagram

Lynch scum. Godspeed, guys and gal.

[Instagram]

With the L-2 I have to reveal my true role, I am the doctor, and Cut The Rope just lost us the game.

[Instagram]

BTW Kik, I tried to roleswap with you there, but your voting me certainly didn't help.

[Cut the Rope]

@Instagram: See? More lying. I honestly believe that I am right. If Instagram actually is the doctor there is no way to confirm it and no reason to believe them. It can just be words to attempt to save their ass. At least if we lose everyone knows to never to do that fake claim shot or they will be lynched. /end fable

[Cut the Rope]

If they are the doctor after all they did a shitty job , The only play Mafia had was kill Candy Crush and it happens and they are dead. This only fuels my belief that they are lying and the true peaceful is hidden away. Please Lynch their ass. The SK may be the town MVP but they are the town FiUP (Fuck it up player). A real doctor would have contributed something to town in 4 days.

[Cut the Rope]

@Kik: To be honest with the amount of shit in this game anything is possible. I just want to at least give town a shot. It may be 5% but it is better than nothing. So as town I vote we send the message Fuck You Instagram!!!

[Cut the Rope]

Now the only problem is two of the three of Angry Birds, 2048, and Piano Tiles gotta come over. If we lose this because Instagram is actually a doctor IMO no lost sleep or anything.

And 4pics it was likely you'd be scientists. Please leave your results in your last will. Same with you 2048 as I believe you are the two TPRs besides me. If I am wrong and someone else is same applies. I will be shortening my last will to just results and actions and likely suspects. That way whoever is left has all the info. Three players can't die tonight as I am right. Instagram buckled and broke their claim.

[Cut the Rope]

Scientisted stupid spell check on my phone