M-FM XXIV Civilization Gamethread

[King Terenas Menethil]

Day open post updated.

I've been a forgetful person. It's a good thing there are two hosts...

[Cut the Rope]

Day open post updated.

I've been a forgetful person. It's a good thing there are two hosts...

You can't be worse than my attempts at scum hunting *whimpers*

[Cut the Rope]

*LAUGHS* MAFIA LEFT A LAST WILL??!?!?!!??!?!

MAFIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OKAY THAT SHIT HAS GOT TO BE A LIE, BUT IS IT???

OMG *laughs*

[Cut the Rope]

I'd say we just vote Instagram as revenge for fucking town over with that shit claim from the start. According to Bloons, they are better mafia than the mafia players.

[Cut the Rope]

Playing the mafia is hella risky.

Our dear critical aweful mafia leader who suppose to manipulate day chat pined all our members in his scum list. Though that nut didn't vote us, he is putting us on fire literally, while himself is in spotlight.

I'm like, What a piece of dense wood would do that?

If you playing so pro town, we will end up losing!!!

I'm done arguing with you guys in night chat.

Yea, the town is pretty bad, the mafia is not better.
Peace I'm out.

Good luck town players. I hope you all meet with us in hell.

This means no Kik lynch today so between Angry Birds, Piano Tiles, and Instagram. I bet Instagram blood will feel good.

[Cut the Rope]

Yep I'm okay with my vote where it is. If Instagram didn't lie about being peaceful then it gives us a way to win the game. And if they did lie about being peaceful they gotta be the SK. Which gives us a chance to win the game. I'll take that.

[Angry Birds]

Three peacefuls lynched.. we need to quit listening to those who led us there.
For now

-vote Kik

[Cut the Rope]

But we need a chance to win So we have to hit SK or peaceful...Instagram has to be one or the other....

Dah fuck I have a feeling my influence after Temple Run is gone Stupid stupid Cut The Rope

[Cut the Rope]

The worst of the matter is that none of the scum actually contributed shitty suggestions during day 1...NONE of them There was a 5%-10% chance of that occurring...We literally derped our way through this game and I led the derp parade. The only way scum contributed to the day 1 derp is 2048 scum and Kik town, which based on Bloons WIFOM last will is possible. Either way bleh.

5 fucking percent boned me...5 fucking percent. *screams at calculator*

[Cut the Rope]

Why did you have to kill Quizup? I get a sick feeling you are enjoying this Instagram :P *Nervous Laughter* Then Quizup would be here and at least they could lynch your ass. Oh...nevermind..I answered my own question.

[Cut the Rope]

My vote is a protest vote and the right thing to do...We have 24 hours til probably everyone switches to Kik and fucks us since Kik is either a TPR or Mafia. Or they switch to Angry Birds who is almost certainly mafia. Sooo we're probably screwed but my last wish an Instagram death. I'll check tomorrow to see if I need to hammer someone to hasten the death.

[2048]

I am honestly afraid to go with anything CtR says...

[Cut the Rope]

I am honestly afraid to go with anything CtR says...

And I honestly don't blame you. Hell if you want to lynch me to prove I'm the Coroner go right ahead.

[2048]

And I honestly don't blame you. Hell if you want to lynch me to prove I'm the Coroner go right ahead.

Like that is even a sane option.

[2048]

-vote Kik

I am throwing what I feel needs to be done.... May there be no more mistakes...

[Cut the Rope]

-vote Kik

I am throwing what I feel needs to be done.... May there be no more mistakes...

Looks like Kik town lynch likely...beautiful (sarcasm)

Once 4 pics 1 word and Fruit Ninja add their votes to Kik more than likely I'll hammer...But I won't hammer Kik until I know we can't do the right thing in the Instagram lynch. The one person who I said was scum since day fucking one....

And mafia/SK one of you please kill Piano Tiles so we can actually HAVE a winner. Otherwise if they don't post anything it may be another 24 hours after this death before a winner can be chosen.

[2048]

Looks like Kik town lynch likely...beautiful (sarcasm)

Once 4 pics 1 word and Fruit Ninja add their votes to Kik more than likely I'll hammer...But I won't hammer Kik until I know we can't do the right thing in the Instagram lynch. The one person who I said was scum since day fucking one....

And mafia/SK one of you please kill Piano Tiles so we can actually HAVE a winner. Otherwise if they don't post anything it may be another 24 hours after this death before a winner can be chosen.

Oh I always thought you were scum since Day 1 too

[Cut the Rope]

Oh I always thought you were scum since Day 1 too

LOL HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Please tell me that was a joke. :P Only Instagram and Vine ever voted for me XD

[2048]

LOL HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Please tell me that was a joke. :P Only Instagram and Vine ever voted for me XD

Oh I know. Course I would have never said anything. You've been in my last will. The only evidence I have against you is the bad lynches.

[Cut the Rope]

LOL The sad thing is I'm pretty sure if you are town I know what your role is which makes this all the more comical.

[2048]

LOL The sad thing is I'm pretty sure if you are town I know what your role is which makes this all the more comical.

If only

[Cut the Rope]

2048 -- yeah we'll see when you die more than likely tonight. :P

And I know why Instagram fake sheriff'd me too this is all just really really depressingly bad now how bad I derped now that I'm pretty sure I've broken the game. *blush*


Instagram -- Really? You couldn't kill me??!

[Instagram]

2048 -- yeah we'll see when you die more than likely tonight. :P

And I know why Instagram fake sheriff'd me too this is all just really really depressingly bad now how bad I derped now that I'm pretty sure I've broken the game. *blush*


Instagram -- Really? You couldn't kill me??!

Okay, I thought you'd finally figured it out until the last sentence there.

[Instagram]

Btw, The cross vote there just broke open the game. I'm going to place my vote on

-vote Angry Birds

. I'm putting my faith in you Kik. Don't mess this up.

[Cut the Rope]

Okay, I thought you'd finally figured it out until the last sentence there.

*sigh* You are the SK...

And I know why you did what you did. So when you win more than likely I will congratulate you.

@2048 -- I'll hammer whoever has 4 votes tomorrow...I just want the game to go forward at this point since we can't win without lynching Instagram or Piano Tiles realistically and that isn't going to happen :P

[Cut the Rope]

Oh and Quizup --- Instagram is NOT TOWN! THEY ARE NOT PEACEFUL :P That's the one thing I got right XD Everything else I should have trusted you on.

*leaves a should have listened wreath on Quizup's grave during the day*

[Cut the Rope]

Ctr should have listened**

[Cut the Rope]

Ohhhhhhhhhhh wait........what if we no lynch twice and the SK hits scum both times...Yeah!

[Cut the Rope]

That might work Wait no....Then it's 2 townies versus the SK and Fruit Ninja.....damn it. :P

[Cut the Rope]

OMG we can still win if we no lynch *squee* We need a lot of luck though. I think we can do it.

[Cut the Rope]

Yeah no I'm not hammering...One last hail mary!

[Cut the Rope]

ALL TOWNIES: I know I normally don't discuss production but if we all pull production together on Hunger games a townie might just get a gun that lets us WIN

[Cut the Rope]

So we no lynch to force enough production...Then a townie gets a gun and then does the one kill that might win us the game

[Cut the Rope]

-vote skip

[Cut the Rope]

*tries and then goes to sleep questioning her sanity*

[Piano Tiles]

CTR you seem to e unaware I have been busy with rl and work. I have been slowly glancing through but all of your theories and ideas have been wrong at each turn. You think you know my role? Go ahead guess. I get off work soon and will be around for tomorrow. All of your ideas can easily be debunked.

[2048]

the odds of SK hitting only mafia....?

[Piano Tiles]

the odds of SK hitting only mafia....?

player list:

Kik
Instagram
Angry Birds
2048
4pics1word
Cut The Rope
Fruit Ninja
Piano Tiles

each scenario:

no lynch: 2 scums, neutral, sk, 4 towns. Leaves 2/6 or 1/3 = 33%
lynch scum: 1 scum, neutral, sk, 4 towns. Leaves 1/5 = 25%
Lynch town (PR): 2 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns: 2/5 = 40%
Lynch town (Peacekeeper): 2 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns: 2/5 again? or would that be 4/5
Lynch SK: irrelevant
Lynch neutral: 2 scums, sk, 4 towns: 2/6 or 1/3 = 33%

[2048]

So basically CtR is saying not to lynch anyone.....
The results being there is a 33% chance SK will kill a mafia. I'm take that as a 2/5 chance by leaving the researcher out. So 40% chance to kill ONE mafia.
Mean while mafia would kill 1 town.(I do not see a reason for the SK to kill the researcher)
Leave either:
1 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns. 40% chance
OR
2 scums, neutral sk, 2 towns. 60% chance

Going with the second, town lost.

Even with a first....it's still a bad hit for town at only half votes....

I believe a no lynch is basically throwing in the towel for town and can't accept it.

[Piano Tiles]

So basically CtR is saying not to lynch anyone.....
The results being there is a 33% chance SK will kill a mafia. I'm take that as a 2/5 chance by leaving the researcher out. So 40% chance to kill ONE mafia.
Mean while mafia would kill 1 town.(I do not see a reason for the SK to kill the researcher)
Leave either:
1 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns. 40% chance
OR
2 scums, neutral sk, 2 towns. 60% chance

Going with the second, town lost.

Even with a first....it's still a bad hit for town at only half votes....

I believe a no lynch is basically throwing in the towel for town and can't accept it.

Ya but my theories are only basic level there are other thing that we could account for but i dunno how to calculate it really.

Other possible scenarios:
Mafia scums hit sk (sk is immune) sk hits town
Mafia scums and SK both hit same target
Mafia scums hit SK and dies (unlikely but possible)
Cross fire of one hits one

I mean there are others that I could probably think of. The problem is there are so many outcomes that it is near impossible (at least for me) to figure out and what would be optimal.

I agree on scum lynch, but the question is this, could we lynch neutral and still have a possible good outcome?

@CTR what is your feedback btw?

[2048]

We HAVE to lynch scum today or I only see a BAD END

[2048]

Either way, if we don't have 2 scum die with this day and night, town will be down on votes.

[Piano Tiles]

Either way, if we don't have 2 scum die with this day and night, town will be down on votes.

Agreed, but it still begs the question, is neutral considered a scum at this phase? What do you think?

[2048]

Agreed, but it still begs the question, is neutral considered a scum at this phase? What do you think?

I am not going to make a statement on that.

[Piano Tiles]

I am not going to make a statement on that.

Fair enough.

[Cut the Rope]

@Piano Tiles -- My feedback was that Fall Down was a Detective and they weren't an actor like I had hoped as mentioned earlier today. Sorry I was a bit freak out ish should have made it clearer.

Either way, if we don't have 2 scum die with this day and night, town will be down on votes.

At least NOW we are talking and I've got a few hours of sleep to go through the night. Hooray!

1 scums, neutral, sk, 3 towns. 40% chance
OR
2 scums, neutral sk, 2 towns. 60% chance

Neither of these scenarios are accurate IMO. There will LIKELY be 3 deaths (assuming we don't lynch Instagram or Piano Tiles) if we hit mafia scum.

1 for the lynchee, 1 for the SK kill, 1 for the mafia kill.
This brings us to 5 players tomorrow.

OR we have death for the lynchee and SK/mafia hit the same person.
This brings us to 6 players tomorrow.

The death of one townie is guaranteed in the NK.

(Continuing in a second)

[Cut the Rope]

So assume that we hit scum with the lynch which we have NEVER done.

1 townie guaranteed, 1 scum lost, 1 kill outstanding:

Remaining players are 1 mafia, 1 SK, 1 researcher, 3 townies
The SK either hits a townie or a mafia. Assume worst case scenario and town.
This is 1 mafia, 1 sk, 1 researcher, 2 townies.
As two kills occur in the night this is a LOSS unless the SK gets lynched. The SK and researcher are aligned. They will not permit a lynch on the SK. This means that Town has to work with mafia to hit the SK to get the three votes. Assume SK is lynched. Mafia is guaranteed a townie kill in the middle of the night.

1 mafia, 1 researcher, 1 townie. Game over as mafia votes no lynch and just waits 24 hours.

Lynching mafia scum today requires the SK to hit mafia for town to have a chance. You're literally trusting the SK AGAIN!




Neither of these scenarios includes the existence of the researcher.

So at the start of today we have 4 townies, 2 mafia scum, 1 SK, 1 researcher.
If the researcher is counted as "scum" then 4 townies versus 4 scum at the start of the day.

[Cut the Rope]

Sorry all the bottom paragraph is a copy from my notes *blush* forgot to erase it.

[Cut the Rope]

But instead...Let's look at a lynch Instagram plan.

One of two things results
1) They are peaceful like they claimed and it is likely the only true statement of the entire game.
2 townies confirmed dead (Instagram + mafia kill), 2 kills outstanding from the SK.

2 mafia remain. For the SK to have a shot at winning they have to kill at least one mafia otherwise it is 0 townies, 2 scum, 1 sk, 1 researcher. This results in scum control of the lynch. By definition, this means mafia wins as they control the lynch as they decide no lynch or lynch researcher. The SK/researcher don't have enough people to prevent control the lynch loss.

1 mafia remain. 1 townie, 1 mafia, 1 sk, 1 researcher. Townie picks to kill SK/mafia. The remaining kills the townie. Townie loss but town picks the winner.

0 mafia remain. 2 townies, 0 mafia, 1 sk, 1 researcher. If the town has been building hunger games, then the town will have the gun to shoot the serial killer. Therefore we can no lynch and win if we have the gun and the immunity is off, because SK/researcher won't let either of them get lynched.


2) They are the SK.
This slows the bleeding to one night kill a night.

3 townies, 2 mafia, 1 jester. (As demonstrated yesterday the researcher is undisputably aligned with the SK).

Townies control destiny. Even more so if we have the hunger games gun at night.

[Cut the Rope]

Either way the only way we completely control our destiny is to hit the serial killer if we lynch.

-vote Instagram