Day 6

[FM Ackerman]

-Hammer FM Dunn

[FM Kalou]

I'm pretty sure the Jester couldn't write articles with semi-accurate facts and claim Kidnapper. Trusting him may be bad, but we may have no other option. We need to get the scums down and fast.

@Kalou, doing it now.

put a color mark on it,as i'll be out for a few hours, possibly longer.

[FM Galloway]

Reading Day four now

[FM Hopgood]

Yeah on day four. This Post

Yeah it was for colymer

[FM Ferengi]

If we lynch the Savage Godfather, does the one half of the group (rounded down) die immediately?

It's considered a cult suicide, so the players will die in #36 of the OoO.

When counting how many savages die due to the Savage Godfather's Death, do the dead savages count?

Dead savages do not count. Cult suicides are only calculated among the living savages.

[FM Parker]

can you link or redo the math where you show that lynching mafia is bad for the town? if you redo it, do it in idiot speak so i can understand.

Argument for lynching the Savage GF: Game started with 36 people. 13 are dead. That's 23 people remaining. From those 23 people, we must deduct 4 mafia and a neut (I think 5 mafia but the point is irrelevant). So that's 19 people remaining. Then you take out the three savages that are in the game AT A MINIMUM. That's 16 people. Subtract the witch. 15 people.

Supposing the savages and the mafia both kill town (2KPN), then the town has 5 or 6 nights to lynch 7-8 scum. That's not happening.

Just like you asked for... in color.

---

@Hopgood, scroll down then. It's on that page. In some browsers, the link doesn't go directly to the post.

[Dunn]

Yeah... Trusting someone who claims kidnapper is not a good idea... For all we know he's a jester who planned this all along and WANTS to be lynched today. Either way, we do know that he wins by making us lose, which means we can't trust anything he says.

You are so retarded.

can you link or redo the math where you show that lynching mafia is bad for the town? if you redo it, do it in idiot speak so i can understand.

9 days until town wins, with perfect lynches
goal- remove a KPN

If you hunt Mafia
13 town, 5 mafia, 4 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch me...
11 town (after 2 kills), 4 mafia, 4 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch mafia
9 town, 3 mafia, 4 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch mafia
7 town, 2 mafia, 4 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch mafia
5 town, 1 mafia, 4 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch mafia
4 town, 4 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
- Savage Win

If you hunt Savages
13 Town, 5 Mafia, 4 Savages, 1 Witch, 1 Benign
lynch savage (lets not even do the SGodfather, since that is even more helpful)
11 town, 5 mafia, 3 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch savage (repeat)
9 town, 5 mafia, 2 savages, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch savage (gf/otherwise)
7 town, 5 mafia, 1 savage, 1 witch, 1 benign
lynch savage
6 town, 5 mafia, 1 witch, 1 benign
- Then we see what happens.

Simply put, Town WILL lose if they kill off Mafia, or neither.
Town has a VERY close call, but a slim chance at victory if they choose to kill Savages first.
Then the chance of getting the Savage Godfather earlier, or the Savages hitting a Mafia or whatever might have you COULD come into play.

But both the Mafia and the Savages know they must hit the Town every night to have a chance to win, so they won't intentionally be hitting the other faction.
If I were Town, i would take the plan that gives a small chance to win, and hope it works out better than taking the 0% chance to win, and hope it works out at all.

And killing off a faction NOT all at once would be even more painful, since the goal is to remove (read: balance) the KPN Town to Scum at 1 a piece.

[FM Hopgood]

Argument for lynching the Savage GF: Game started with 36 people. 13 are dead. That's 23 people remaining. From those 23 people, we must deduct 4 mafia and a neut (I think 5 mafia but the point is irrelevant). So that's 19 people remaining. Then you take out the three savages that are in the game AT A MINIMUM. That's 16 people. Subtract the witch. 15 people.

Supposing the savages and the mafia both kill town (2KPN), then the town has 5 or 6 nights to lynch 7-8 scum. That's not happening.

Just like you asked for... in color.

---

@Hopgood, scroll down then. It's on that page. In some browsers, the link doesn't go directly to the post.

Ya i know #77 right?

[Forum Mafia GM]

-Hammer FM Dunn

That's not a real vote.

[FM Parker]

Ya i know #77 right?

Right.

[FM Mendez]

Argument for lynching the Savage GF: Game started with 36 people. 13 are dead. That's 23 people remaining. From those 23 people, we must deduct 4 mafia and a neut (I think 5 mafia but the point is irrelevant). So that's 19 people remaining. Then you take out the three savages that are in the game AT A MINIMUM. That's 16 people. Subtract the witch. 15 people.

Supposing the savages and the mafia both kill town (2KPN), then the town has 5 or 6 nights to lynch 7-8 scum. That's not happening.

Just like you asked for... in color.

---

@Hopgood, scroll down then. It's on that page. In some browsers, the link doesn't go directly to the post.

The situation you are making is if the escorts never find the godfathers or the clubber never finds any savages. Also if Mafia and Savages somehow decide to work together to kill off town. Worst case scenario right there.

[Dunn]

IF TOWN WANTS TO WIN THEY WILL LYNCH THE SAVAGES FIRST, AND IN SEQUENCE OVER THE NEXT 3/4 DAYS. ANYONE SUGGESTING A STRATEGY THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE IS HEREBY DEEMED A SAVAGE OR NEEDS TO STOP PLAYING FM's.

Parker, please confirm.

[Dunn]

That's not a real vote.

You don't say..

[FM Ackerman]

The situation you are making is if the escorts never find the godfathers or the clubber never finds any savages. Also if Mafia and Savages somehow decide to work together to kill off town. Worst case scenario right there.

Agreed, I like my plan hammer dunn today, while carafelli finds the savage godfather.

@Dunn Of course a mafia would say that.

[Dunn]

Agreed, I like my plan hammer dunn today, while carafelli finds the savage godfather.

@Dunn Of course a mafia would say that.

Parker basically said it too bro. Is she Mafia?

[FM Hopgood]

Any questions before i sleep?

[Dunn]

Any questions before i sleep?

Who are the other savages?

[FM Ackerman]

Parker basically said it too bro. Is she Mafia?

Parker assumed no heals, no blocks, no mafia kill savage, no savage kill mafia. Yes town is in a bad position, but does that's no reason to risk lynching a town to catch a savage.

[Dunn]

Parker assumed no heals, no blocks, no mafia kill savage, no savage kill mafia. Yes town is in a bad position, but does that's no reason to risk lynching a town to catch a savage.

It does.
Those could all come into play regardless of which direction you take, but going with the Mafia over the Savages for the time being means an increased chance. Minorly so, but increased.

[FM Parker]

Any questions before i sleep?

Why did you FoS me in post 77? You know that question you skipped.

@Dunn, I'm not sure we need to go in sequence if the last savage is known and we can use the escort to block him. However, we do need to get the KPN down per night. This is too dangerous for my liking. I know who all the mafia are anyway, so I can post them at day's end.

If Dunn backstabs us and has me killed, rather than bussing me, the town will just give the mafia a big FU and hand the game to the savages.

Give me a couple of hours (and Galloway's opinion) before I make up my mind on the right path.

[FM Ackerman]

It does.
Those could all come into play regardless of which direction you take, but going with the Mafia over the Savages for the time being means an increased chance. Minorly so, but increased.

We have no concrete leads on savages. So the increase chance comes at a cost.

[FM Hopgood]

Who are the other savages?

Im not sure but i got savages read on those two
Mason, and that boat avatar guy, kalou or something

[FM Hopgood]

Why did you FoS me in post 77? You know that question you skipped.

@Dunn, I'm not sure we need to go in sequence if the last savage is known and we can use the escort to block him. However, we do need to get the KPN down per night. This is too dangerous for my liking. I know who all the mafia are anyway, so I can post them at day's end.

If Dunn backstabs us and has me killed, rather than bussing me, the town will just give the mafia a big FU and hand the game to the savages.

Give me a couple of hours (and Galloway's opinion) before I make up my mind on the right path.

I have rights to remain silent

[FM Ackerman]

I have rights to remain silent

Patriot Act, you have no rights.

[Dunn]

Why did you FoS me in post 77? You know that question you skipped.

@Dunn, I'm not sure we need to go in sequence if the last savage is known and we can use the escort to block him. However, we do need to get the KPN down per night. This is too dangerous for my liking. I know who all the mafia are anyway, so I can post them at day's end.

If Dunn backstabs us and has me killed, rather than bussing me, the town will just give the mafia a big FU and hand the game to the savages.

Give me a couple of hours (and Galloway's opinion) before I make up my mind on the right path.

Backstabbing like 65% of the game isnt my deal at the moment Parker.

We have no concrete leads on savages. So the increase chance comes at a cost.

A cost of what? your 0% chance to win if you don't side with us?

Im not sure but i got savages read on those two
Mason, and that boat avatar guy, kalou or something

Great job.

[FM Parker]

I have rights to remain silent

In mafia, really, you're going that road.... Mafia is located in a fictitious future land. You don't have fifth amendment rights. The Mayor Queen voted to revoke them just for you.

[FM Hopgood]

Patriot Act, you have no rights.

Im not european

[Dunn]

A cost of what? your 0% chance to win if you don't side with us?

As Parker just said. They can either try to win, or hand the game to the Savages.

[FM Leary]

IF TOWN WANTS TO WIN THEY WILL LYNCH THE SAVAGES FIRST, AND IN SEQUENCE OVER THE NEXT 3/4 DAYS. ANYONE SUGGESTING A STRATEGY THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE IS HEREBY DEEMED A SAVAGE OR NEEDS TO STOP PLAYING FM's.

Parker, please confirm.

lynch you now, lynch savage godfather tomorrow.
Mislynch a town today - possibly snowball this into a loss
Seeing how we have sufficient numbers to warrant a sure scumkill today, we should know more tomorrow. I also insistently believe that we have some sort of town kpn, otherwise handling cult would be impossible.

Nuff said, and you're getting on my nerves with your cheap ass ploy to get Parker killed.
Since i also think that we have a doctor, the mafia is probably planning on doing away with parker tonight. Bus him - kill him, so no heal on Parker possible.

[FM Donnelly]

I'm pretty sure the Jester couldn't write articles with semi-accurate facts and claim Kidnapper. Trusting him may be bad, but we may have no other option. We need to get the scums down and fast.

@Kalou, doing it now.

Well he claimed to bus dead people who weren't around to deny it. And didn't Monroe say he was never bussed by Dunn?

But like I said, whether he is the kidnapper, the jester, or any other scum, he is not our ally and I don't think we should waste any more time listening to him.

Either we lynch him, or we lynch someone who might be savage GF. But day is halfway over so if we're going to switch targets, we'd better decide who it's going to be pretty soon, otherwise some of the less active players might not get on in time to vote, and then we're really screwed.

[Dunn]

There probably isnt a Doctor. Also, I don't intend to kill Parker. Or let Parker die.
I have independent control of my bussing action, and if Parker is in our kills target I will prevent it with a kill I find more appropriate.
I need Parker alive to make sure Town can overcome Savages if they stab us in the back.

Also, Leary, you are so Savage it makes me vomit.

[FM Ackerman]

There probably isnt a Doctor. Also, I don't intend to kill Parker. Or let Parker die.
I have independent control of my bussing action, and if Parker is in our kills target I will prevent it with a kill I find more appropriate.
I need Parker alive to make sure Town can overcome Savages if they stab us in the back.

Also, Leary, you are so Savage it makes me vomit.

I'm gonna go count your savage claims :P

[Dunn]

Well he claimed to bus dead people who weren't around to deny it. And didn't Monroe say he was never bussed by Dunn?

But like I said, whether he is the kidnapper, the jester, or any other scum, he is not our ally and I don't think we should waste any more time listening to him.

Either we lynch him, or we lynch someone who might be savage GF. But day is halfway over so if we're going to switch targets, we'd better decide who it's going to be pretty soon, otherwise some of the less active players might not get on in time to vote, and then we're really screwed.

Monroe went back on that claim. It was some ploy, idk.

Also, in the mindset of changing targets I say Leary.
Leary looks like a Savage, and Parker is most assured he is the Savage Godfather if any of the suspects are.
I think it is a good lead for us.

-vote FM Leary

[Dunn]

I'm gonna go count your savage claims :P

Yea, I think a lot of people could be, potentially.

[FM Leary]

Lying is your forte. Town does NOT lose if we lynch the savage GF tomorrow. Having you alive is more than an immense risk.
Since i'm going to sleep and might not be on for the rest of Day 6, i'll just leave this here.

-vote FM Dunn

[FM Galloway]

Hopgood

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post324153

Short simple useless answers with no verification or explanation. Saying it now these things are signs of active lurking which is scummy.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post323549

Lulz and admitted sheeping. both of these phrases are not town oriented. compared this with his general activity is a sign that this guy is not a town role...or is just a very very very bad player.

---

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post324015

Clearly agitated and spiteful of a very pro town players during the time. Leary wants him out of the way. He does not say lynched but just out of the way. the phrase is also in connection with a player who is not town, based on past FMs.


https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post323989


Another sign of active lurking. None of his reads here are explained enough to have a valid basis. His answers are short and lacking in insight or depth and the people he suspects are the ones being suspected practically all along. Sheeping.

---

Ballard's connection to Hopgood

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post324158


Ballard shows that he doesn't want to be fully ignoring Hopgoods presence but he also doesn't want to much suspicion on Hopgood. He writes his message here to give off a cool vibe while it goes against most of his actual play, mimicking myself here, and its a subtle level two wifom connection that has been uncovered. He brushes off Hopgood while not finding his answers scummy when they were.

---

Bonus - Kelso

Keep an eye on this one. He doesn't seem to give depth in his posts and they skirt the top of issues that normally are debated on more heavily.

[FM Parker]

Well he claimed to bus dead people who weren't around to deny it. And didn't Monroe say he was never bussed by Dunn?

But like I said, whether he is the kidnapper, the jester, or any other scum, he is not our ally and I don't think we should waste any more time listening to him.

Either we lynch him, or we lynch someone who might be savage GF. But day is halfway over so if we're going to switch targets, we'd better decide who it's going to be pretty soon, otherwise some of the less active players might not get on in time to vote, and then we're really screwed.

That's why I have an internal point of any relevant actions at mid day.

[Dunn]

Lying is your forte. Town does NOT lose if we lynch the savage GF tomorrow. Having you alive is more than an immense risk.
Since i'm going to sleep and might not be on for the rest of Day 6, i'll just leave this here.

-vote FM Dunn

Town has the best bet to kill Savages. With Savage Godfather being a potential bonus. I have made sure to note that taking my course is a betterment for them. Then things like a Clubber or the SG are added bonuses.
Worst case scenario with the Mafia is better than worse case with the Savages.
Bonuses are bonus, but be smart.

[FM Parker]

@Galloway, here's the 100% question... how right/wrong would it be to lynch Leary today and then plan out the night actions including Dunn's

[FM Galloway]

FM Dunn (10 [L-2]):
FM Ryan, FM Cafarelli, FM Rose, FM Lichtmann, FM Ackerman, FM Mason, FM Donnelly, FM Mendez, FM Fontaine, FM Leary

Stop it now. What the [bleep] is wrong with you colossal moron!? Its barely been any time at all into day and we're at L-2!
Stop trying to send our only chance at full communication into the trash with your stupidity!

[Dunn]

I will be having a say in my own actions. However, they will be discussed.

[FM Ackerman]

That's why I have an internal point of any relevant actions at mid day.

@Parker I suppose I'll back your play, but keep in mind lynching a town is worse than lynching a mafia.

[FM Hopgood]

Hey Parker you still there?

[FM Parker]

I am still here.

[FM Ackerman]

-vote Unvote

[FM Galloway]

@Galloway, here's the 100% question... how right/wrong would it be to lynch Leary today and then plan out the night actions including Dunn's

Its a risk. A huge risk to take letting a confirmed scum live another day to scheme with his allies. We can plan all we want and thats no problem but here we are relying on a scum to help us move on to success. We cannot let the day go without a lynch thats for sure but we cannot blindly trust Dunn the scum here. Leary is definatly showing scum colors and with Dunn trying to lynch him we can be assured that Leary is at least not mafia. I can agree with pressure and going from there but out right lyching based on a scum's word is ridiculous. Besides, if anything I would feel much better lynching Hopgood, based on his connection with Ballard, than Leary based on Dunns word. However my stance is solely based on the fact that it is a scum telling us what to do. If there is anything else showing that Leary is put on the spotlight because of things not related to Dunn I am more willing to pursue him. Based on my own investigations I can come to the conclusion that Leary has played before and that would mean he is more skilled at blending and his posts support that aspect of things.

tl;dr If there is more to Leary than Dunns word yes. Otherwise no.

[FM Hopgood]

Alright my role may save the town, i am going to role claim in a minute.
Odds are not good for the town right now, and I decided to lurk, sheep and play dumb until time is right.
I think this time is right.
Do not lynch Dunn!

[Dunn]

Leary was my selection based on Parker selecting him, actually. Not my own.

[FM Ackerman]

Alright my role may save the town, i am going to role claim in a minute.
Odds are not good for the town right now, and I decided to lurk, sheep and play dumb until time is right.
I think this time is right.
Do not lynch Dunn!

The doctor is here?

[FM Ackerman]

Alright my role may save the town, i am going to role claim in a minute.
Odds are not good for the town right now, and I decided to lurk, sheep and play dumb until time is right.
I think this time is right.
Do not lynch Dunn!

Wait no, I know what you are... Do I really have a vest?