Day 6

[FM Cafarelli]

a) who was bmed n1 and n4

night 1 and 5 i mean

[Dunn]

Cafarelli? Why would we kill the Savages? Killing the Savages is a Town win and offers us nothing.
Your assumptions are based on less than mine are, and you think I will kill the Savages? Your win is hinging on doing what we want. Doing what you want is a guaranteed loss for us, where as you doing what we want is helpful to us, and helpful to you.
We are not assured the win, but if you think we will help you by killing ourselves you will most certainly lose.

[FM Cafarelli]

and by the way, since i was drugged,

Hogeboom failed massively. Not only he didn't protect me, he also failed to protect himself. If you weren't dead and Dunn wasn't so obvious, we all would've thought you're the Kidnapper.
well unless the escort blocked him instead of dunn. then it would be escort's epic fail

[Dunn]

I have given what I have, but as your leaders have now turned on the idea of winning I think I shall not give anything else until you see the light that you must follow our lead to win.

[FM Parker]

@Cafarelli, I'm going to start by rephrasing the evidence Morgan was not a delta.

Premise: Ballard was savaged night 1.
Premise: Ballard's first investigation was on night 2.
Conclusion: The Godfather lacks any relevant feedback.
Premise: The Savage Godfather would have used "recruit as" on night 2, because he has no information.
Conclusion: A recruit as, creating a pure savage, means the target hit a gamma.
Conclusion: Morgan was a gamma.
Conclusion: The "coroner" lied about the status of Morgan.


@Dunn, you agree to Cafarelli's plan or we lynch you. I don't like being lied to and take it as your punishment. If you're accurate in what you say, we may lynch another member of your team. Lie again, and well, we might just lynch the Mafia straight though. I'm also pretty confident Ackerman is the drug dealer upon reflection.

[FM Cafarelli]

Cafarelli? Why would we kill the Savages? Killing the Savages is a Town win and offers us nothing.
Your assumptions are based on less than mine are, and you think I will kill the Savages? Your win is hinging on doing what we want. Doing what you want is a guaranteed loss for us, where as you doing what we want is helpful to us, and helpful to you.
We are not assured the win, but if you think we will help you by killing ourselves you will most certainly lose.

because we will NOT help you against them you have to kill them. or they win. if you don't kill them they win or town wins. easy, isn't it?
also, you can redirect your question to yourself: why would we kill the savages if you don't?
facts prove i'm right, you killed 2 savages after checking them

[FM Cafarelli]

@Cafarelli, I'm going to start by rephrasing the evidence Morgan was not a delta.

Premise: Ballard was savaged night 1.
Premise: Ballard's first investigation was on night 2.
Conclusion: The Godfather lacks any relevant feedback.
Premise: The Savage Godfather would have used "recruit as" on night 2, because he has no information.
Conclusion: A recruit as, creating a pure savage, means the target hit a gamma.
Conclusion: Morgan was a gamma.
Conclusion: The "coroner" lied about the status of Morgan.


@Dunn, you agree to Cafarelli's plan or we lynch you. I don't like being lied to and take it as your punishment. If you're accurate in what you say, we may lynch another member of your team. Lie again, and well, we might just lynch the Mafia straight though. I'm also pretty confident Ackerman is the drug dealer upon reflection.

maybe he thought morgan was a gamma and thus did the normal recruit

[FM Cafarelli]

also we can get rid of one KPN very easily, just get that savage gf

[FM Parker]

maybe he thought morgan was a gamma and thus did the normal recruit

Based on what evidence? Morgan was the highest poster day 1. That's not exactly a typical early PR play. It seems to be the savages MO to target the most vocal speakers.

[FM Cafarelli]

also we can get rid of one KPN very easily, just get that savage gf

confirming this, can savages kill if savage gf is dead? because in the rolecard it says they may only be send for the kill (by the sav gf)

if i'm right it supports that lynching a regular sav is pointless instead of maf
lynching the sav gf is the best option currently but we don't know him. and i can't find him either

[FM Cafarelli]

Based on what evidence? Morgan was the highest poster day 1. That's not exactly a typical early PR play. It seems to be the savages MO to target the most vocal speakers.

i don't know. but why would carruthers lie to us (even if he was scum)

[Dunn]

@Cafarelli, I'm going to start by rephrasing the evidence Morgan was not a delta.

Premise: Ballard was savaged night 1.
Premise: Ballard's first investigation was on night 2.
Conclusion: The Godfather lacks any relevant feedback.
Premise: The Savage Godfather would have used "recruit as" on night 2, because he has no information.
Conclusion: A recruit as, creating a pure savage, means the target hit a gamma.
Conclusion: Morgan was a gamma.
Conclusion: The "coroner" lied about the status of Morgan.


@Dunn, you agree to Cafarelli's plan or we lynch you. I don't like being lied to and take it as your punishment. If you're accurate in what you say, we may lynch another member of your team. Lie again, and well, we might just lynch the Mafia straight though. I'm also pretty confident Ackerman is the drug dealer upon reflection.

-vote FM Dunn

Your plan kills us. You have no power to bargain with, and my lynch is your lose. Congratulations, you have assumed I lied, and decided to lose.

[FM Ferengi]

Can the Godfather send his minions to kill in the alternative? Ex: If I am roleblocked, the Consigliere makes the kill.

The godfather can send a minion to kill instead of sending himself. However, he may not make conditional night actions (i.e. send GF to kill FM X, or send [mafia role] to kill FM X in case GF is role blocked).

If an investigator investigates, and is druged 'no feedback' will the invest recieve the result and the no feedback feedback

Someone drugged "no feedback" simply does not receive a night feedback PM. Therefore they will not receive any results.

can savages kill if savage gf is dead? because in the rolecard it says they may only be send for the kill (by the sav gf)

Savages retain their faction kill even if the savage gf is dead.

[FM Parker]

also we can get rid of one KPN very easily, just get that savage gf

We get that savage GF, we get two kills. It doesn't matter whether we smash or lynch the bugger.

---

Carruthers lies so that it looks like the Savage GF is doing plain old recruiting, setting the stage for this blackmail. If the Savage GF was the town investigator, it makes it much less likely you're town.

[FM Parker]

Look Dunn, you need us as much as we need you. It's all on the table right now. We could still lynch Phelps. I haven't decided. Yet, we are lynching a mafia today.

So that means we start smashing.

[Dunn]

Look Dunn, you need us as much as we need you. It's all on the table right now. We could still lynch Phelps. I haven't decided. Yet, we are lynching a mafia today.

So that means we start smashing.

A lynch of a mafia at all is a lose. It will still be 5 days until the KPN goes away.
It must be the savages over the next 4 days.

[FM Parker]

A lynch of a mafia at all is a lose. It will still be 5 days until the KPN goes away.
It must be the savages over the next 4 days.

Or you could just do your part and target/roleblock the likely savage candidates rather than shooting known town, like the escort.

[Dunn]

Or you could just do your part and target/roleblock the likely savage candidates rather than shooting known town, like the escort.

We can't hand you the win either. ;) We are pulling for a 50/50 Town/Mafia win chance, not for a 100/0 Town/Mafia win chance.

[Dunn]

Mafia win chance with plan- 50.0
Town win chance with plan- 49.999
Savage win chance with plan- 0.001

Mafia win chance with your plan- 0.0
Town win chance with your plan- 100.0
Savage win chance with your plan- 0.0

Mafia win chance without plan- 50.0
Town win chance without plan- 0.0
Savage win chance without plan- 50.0

[FM Parker]

We can't hand you the win either. ;) We are pulling for a 50/50 Town/Mafia win chance, not for a 100/0 Town/Mafia win chance.

You really think that just not killing any mafia is going to give the town a win chance? No. Of course not. The savages kill the townies, mafia kills the town and the town is decimated. We must go for known scums first. We really get desperate to lynch the Savage Godfather if the Clubber dies.

Of course, there is the witch too, who can monkey with this whole thing.

[FM Parker]

You might get away with killing known town deltas... but the escort has to stay. We need to block the Savage Godfather if and when we find him.

[FM Mendez]

I'm here now guys. Days starting at midnight is hard on me. I will be here all day. Nothing happened to me.

Defense against this poor accusation by Licht

Mendez: obvious scum or very bad delta, didn't vote on the train yesterday, if i remember correctly didn't vote on the trains that went against the scums. Only voted on the trains against deltas.

Lichmann: OH IT ME! HAI ME!

Leary: I would make a joke saying that becasue he has no avatar hes obviously scum but, due to his lack of post i would consider him delta/scum

Black: was around for a lot of votings and was in the game but never contributed much

I"m tired so I'm going to sleep right now. I might be on later

Please read my posts yesterday. I clearly planned on hammering Buch but Hopgood ended day early. Why would I hammer with 4+ hours left in the day?

I did not join the lynch on Cohen for good reasons, and it turned out the invest was just guessing. I was just as surprised as anyone else to see him be arsonist.

It is very apparent that Dunn is the kidnapper. We could ask him to reveal information from their consig, but it will probably be fake and made to mislynch us. A better choice would be to see who he has been protecting, and if the article he posted is true, which is unlikely, we can assume the people he claimed to swap with dead players are not mafia.

On the first night I swapped Mason and Monroe
- Because Yolo

On the second night I swapped Dunn and Lichtman.
- Dunn did not look likely to be attacked.
- Lichtman looked possibly blackmailed.

On the third night I swapped Becket and Kalou
- Kalou was full lurker, but gained town points for me by not jumping on the Monroe train on day 2
- Becket was evidently using empty posts to appear relevant

On night 4 I swapped Ackerman and Morgan
- Morgan looked scummy to me since the early game
- Ackerman had garnered some accusation and I anticipated the Mafia might kill him to cause confusion.

By this logic, Ackerman, and Kalou are not mafia. This is assuming mafia is not retarded and self attacks and swaps.

Since he claimed to self swap with Lichtmann, I'd assume Lichtmann is town, but his posting makes me think otherwise.
[vote]FM Dunn[/vote

[Dunn]

You really think that just not killing any mafia is going to give the town a win chance? No. Of course not. The savages kill the townies, mafia kills the town and the town is decimated. We must go for known scums first. We really get desperate to lynch the Savage Godfather if the Clubber dies.

Of course, there is the witch too, who can monkey with this whole thing.

Try to think out how the Town will fair over the following nights.
Your chances are nothing unless you join us. You will lose if you lynch non-savage over the next 4 days.
And I will laugh in the dead chat the entire time.

[Dunn]

Article was fact.

[FM Ryan]

I'm sure that Mafia is trying to mislead us. Don't believe any of Dunn's words right away. Calm down, and analyze the situation.

If Mason really is one of the Masons, then that means that Dunn basically told the savages to kill Mason next night. I guess neither of us is expecting that, right? Don't say that I did not warn you.

As strange as it sounds, placing a doctor (or some kind of WIFOM protection) on Mason would be more helpful to town than protecting Parker in the long run (if you are afraid of losing our numbers to Savages). Don't forget that there is could be also a Witch that does not care who wins as long as town loses and she stays alive.

Dunn, can you tell us of any possible witch suspects? We might consider leaving you alive if we manage to find and lynch the Witch first, because after a few days it will be impossible. Does a witch really exists? Are your kills being controlled by Witch?

[FM Mendez]

-vote FM Dunn

inb4 scum slip fake voting

[FM Cafarelli]

so if your role list is correct, there was never a consort.
meaning phelps is the escort.

so let's assign the dd2 actions:
n1 fake block galetta or do something to ackerman in case galetta is the bmer (ackerman i need you to reveal!!)
n2 fake rb bekowsky
n3 maybe fake bus ballard (unless ballard lies or dunn lies about who he swapped)
n4 fake rb donnelly
n5 fake rb phelps (at this point: can the dd fake this message: "Someone tried to roleblock you last night, but you were immune. "
n6 me

still possible there's a consort and the new dd was a student

at dunn: if you don't want to cooperate with us by killing savages, you can at least answer the questions. the more you answer, the more we will be inclined to help you over savages

ps: pls don't lynch yet, there's alot to discuss

[Dunn]

I'm sure that Mafia is trying to mislead us. Don't believe any of Dunn's words right away. Calm down, and analyze the situation.

If Mason really is one of the Masons, then that means that Dunn basically told the savages to kill Mason next night. I guess neither of us is expecting that, right? Don't say that I did not warn you.

As strange as it sounds, placing a doctor (or some kind of WIFOM protection) on Mason would be more helpful to town than protecting Parker in the long run (if you are afraid of losing our numbers to Savages). Don't forget that there is could be also a Witch that does not care who wins as long as town loses and she stays alive.

Dunn, can you tell us of any possible witch suspects? We might consider leaving you alive if we manage to find and lynch the Witch first, because after a few days it will be impossible. Does a witch really exists? Are your kills being controlled by Witch?

FM Green is witch, as best I see it. Please lynch him, because that totally removes a KPN

[FM Parker]

@Mendez, whoever Dunn swapped with is non-Mafia, not town. You're confusing the two.

Also, Ackerman acted so pro-mafia but he could because he thought he had town semi-confirmed town status, if they hadn't drugged Cafarelli, I might have never suspected him at all. The sudden flip is consistent with him being the student/drug dealer. Also, Dunn's bussing doesn't indicate anything innocent about the target. It's likely Kalou isn't mafia. Yet he could be a savage.

@Dunn, we can trade back and forth, first eliminating known mafia. Then we can eliminate known savages. If we hit the Godfather, so be it. Our attention has to be on pressuring the delta claimers for now though. You need to kill town. The chance of a savage dying is a remote side effect. Just shoot the active deltas and the escorts won't block mafia.

[FM Parker]

@Cafarelli, your assumptions are all off. The second drug dealer (the student) wouldn't get abilities until after the first one died. So the second drug dealer has no actions until Buchwalter's death.

[FM Parker]

FM Green is witch, as best I see it. Please lynch him, because that totally removes a KPN

How does getting the witch reduce the KPN? Are you stating if we lynch the witch you wouldn't kill at all?

[FM Leary]

and by the way, since i was drugged,

Hogeboom failed massively. Not only he didn't protect me, he also failed to protect himself. If you weren't dead and Dunn wasn't so obvious, we all would've thought you're the Kidnapper.
well unless the escort blocked him instead of dunn. then it would be escort's epic fail

The consort blocking hogeboom seems like a way more likely outcome

[FM Fontaine]

-vote FM Dunn

You are not telling me what to do. I will not follow the Mafia.

[FM Mendez]

Try to think out how the Town will fair over the following nights.
Your chances are nothing unless you join us. You will lose if you lynch non-savage over the next 4 days.
And I will laugh in the dead chat the entire time.

You are implying Savages actually have 4 members and our escorts do nothing every night. If we lynch the SGF we have no trouble at all with this.

@Mendez, whoever Dunn swapped with is non-Mafia, not town. You're confusing the two.

Also, Ackerman acted so pro-mafia but he could because he thought he had town semi-confirmed town status, if they hadn't drugged Cafarelli, I might have never suspected him at all. The sudden flip is consistent with him being the student/drug dealer. Also, Dunn's bussing doesn't indicate anything innocent about the target. It's likely Kalou isn't mafia. Yet he could be a savage.

@Dunn, we can trade back and forth, first eliminating known mafia. Then we can eliminate known savages. If we hit the Godfather, so be it. Our attention has to be on pressuring the delta claimers for now though. You need to kill town. The chance of a savage dying is a remote side effect. Just shoot the active deltas and the escorts won't block mafia.

I thought I said that. Looking back, looks like I messed up on Lichtmann. Yes he is clearly not Mafia but could still be savage. Also, since Buch died to the lynch, wouldn't the student in his theory be able to act last night?

[FM Cafarelli]

@Cafarelli, your assumptions are all off. The second drug dealer (the student) wouldn't get abilities until after the first one died. So the second drug dealer has no actions until Buchwalter's death.

the actions are of course if it's not a student but a second dd

[FM Cafarelli]

dunn is now at l-3. DO NOT VOTE anymore. mayor can kill anytime

[FM Parker]

Exactly, Mendez. We are no better off than we were yesterday other than the fact we lost a mafia voting member. Well possibly the drug dealer cannot talk with the other mafia. Yet, he'd be stupid to drug Cafarelli now since he's needed to find the savages.

If the student picks a mafia member who dies, then does the student get the mafia night chat?

[FM Mendez]

How does getting the witch reduce the KPN? Are you stating if we lynch the witch you wouldn't kill at all?

It doesn't change KPN at all.

Also, we are worse off than yesterday since we lost two PR's but Mafia will lose two members after today, which is a trade I will make any day.

[FM Cafarelli]

The consort blocking hogeboom seems like a way more likely outcome

if there is a consort. i'm still not sure

so we have to lynch all the savages to get rid of the KPN. anyway, lynching a regular savage today (who might also be mason) is not good, because if we get the sav gf most of them will die anyway (+ if we get lucky we still have the confirmed sav alive) and addiotioanlly the ml can kill him

also, if there is a neutral survivor he should claim. we won't lynch you

@dunn: is the witch witching your gf?

possible plan for the witch: give us some mafia and side with savages. or if you don't want to reveal, let maf kill themself

[FM Leary]

I still find it disturbing how Green has not posted at all and hasn't been modkilled yet.
Kelso for mafia
Green for Savages/Witch

Also Dunn did not dismiss the possibility of Mason / Carruthers being mafia. Heck i even believe Carruthers might be mafia, seeing how he delivered Mason on a silver platter. The way Dunn described his actions about _NOT_ lying seems like a deliberate move people do when they twist the truth in one way or another.

As Cafarelli said i will not be putting my vote on Dunn, seeing how it's execution time when Parker decides to end day.
Oh and Parker, why are you, as town "leader" dodging the obvious accusation of Green/Kelso?

[Dunn]

How does getting the witch reduce the KPN? Are you stating if we lynch the witch you wouldn't kill at all?

Sarcasm

[Dunn]

if there is a consort. i'm still not sure

so we have to lynch all the savages to get rid of the KPN. anyway, lynching a regular savage today (who might also be mason) is not good, because if we get the sav gf most of them will die anyway (+ if we get lucky we still have the confirmed sav alive) and addiotioanlly the ml can kill him

also, if there is a neutral survivor he should claim. we won't lynch you

@dunn: is the witch witching your gf?

possible plan for the witch: give us some mafia and side with savages. or if you don't want to reveal, let maf kill themself

No it isn't.

[FM Cafarelli]

No it isn't.

which sentence did you respons to?


dunn, your interview didn't say who you swapped n6

if mentor is lynched, does student get his ability already in the next night? or does he have to wait until next day

[FM Parker]

Let's at least start by making a list of possible Savage Godfathers. Then we eliminate one by one until we determine who we are going to lynch tomorrow. Anyone who has been roleblocked on nights 1 or 2 is excluded. Note: This list has all possibles, not just likely.

I'm not dodging the obvious accusation of Green and Kelso. I'm thinking about the proper procedures. Before the savages started killing, my main priority for the day was to try and out the witch. That would mean rb the Kidnapper and soma can be passed freely.

My suspect list

Ackerman
Black
Chapman
Donnelly
Fontaine
Galleta
Green (kinda liked him as the witch before Dunn said it though)
Kalou
Kelso
Leary
Lichtmann
Mason
Mendez
Rose
Ryan

[FM Kalou]

Fake vote on dunn, not real voting because mayor will do the honors

[FM Parker]

Grr scratch Chapman as savage GF. He was blocked night 2, when he would have been required to Savage Morgan.

[FM Parker]

the actions are of course if it's not a student but a second dd

A second DD would have hidden your feedback on nights 2 and 4.

Also, there's no point in blocking a suspected bus driver unless you're a consort. That's what Phelps is.

The new drug dealer is a student.

[FM Mendez]

if there is a consort. i'm still not sure

so we have to lynch all the savages to get rid of the KPN. anyway, lynching a regular savage today (who might also be mason) is not good, because if we get the sav gf most of them will die anyway (+ if we get lucky we still have the confirmed sav alive) and addiotioanlly the ml can kill him

also, if there is a neutral survivor he should claim. we won't lynch you

@dunn: is the witch witching your gf?

possible plan for the witch: give us some mafia and side with savages. or if you don't want to reveal, let maf kill themself

Planning a neutral evils actions is scummy. Anyways, why would a Witch do that and lower his chances of winning. less scum = harder for witch to win with scum. If Ballard didn't already turn Savage invest, I would think you were a savage from this.

Greens constant lurking without being modkilled is curious to me. Dunn could be targeting him to free the Godfather from the Witch, or just trying to mislynch. I personally think he is going for a mislynch, because scum gonna scum.

[FM Parker]

@Mendez, this is Cafarelli thinking down the road. I don't think he's a savage.

@All, I think our Savages are already in the train, just like Dunn suggested.

[Dunn]

@Mendez, this is Cafarelli thinking down the road. I don't think he's a savage.

@All, I think our Savages are already in the train, just like Dunn suggested.

Whats that? The guy that claimed Kidnapper might be trying to scum hunt the Savages? Shocking.