the greatest mafia game that has ever been played

[frostie]

https://replayfu.com/r/HpG3kg

it's by far the greatest game ever

the name is "soNicbooM" and im HEY GUYS HOBBS HERE

any ways

I claim USB is mafia when its day first so i cant know anything

night ends USB is dead by vet he is GF (lol)

2nd day i random ercole is sk randoming (lol)

3rd day i random yellow (hes arsonist)

4th day i random purple (hes mafioso)

all completely random with no evidence at all.

alot better if u watch the replay

[Graham]

Odds of that is astronomical.. very astronomical. I have taken data analysis classes before and I can tell that odds of this happening is probably in the thousandths.. of a percentage point. Or at least low hundredths.

[Deathfire123]

I love how they all said theyd report you to DR after the game

[NorthStar]

I love how they all said theyd report you to DR after the game

Many people that have no sense of logic (most pubs) threaten to report me to DR when they don't even know how to contact him, oh because theres a Mayor, SK, Doctor and I (Jailor) I kill the Doctor as hes a potential SK, Mayor lynchs SK next day, no loss, just a raging Doctor.

[Portaloo]

i already reported him in the complaints forums. i was in that game.

[Pansy]

I believe it, I was a jester before and kept random lynching people and continuesly got a mafia or evil neutral role, it started to annoy me because i became one of the unlynchables of the town.

[CaressMeTenderly]

Odds of that is astronomical.. very astronomical. I have taken data analysis classes before and I can tell that odds of this happening is probably in the thousandths.. of a percentage point. Or at least low hundredths.

...
No it isn't.
Not at all.

You have like, what, 4 baddies here?
15 players.
4/15 x 3/(X<15) x 2/(X<14) x 1/(X<13)

That's hardly astronomical. Especially if there were multiple kills + lynchings. We'll take an average of two deaths per day, e.g. 1 death 1 lynch, 2 deaths no lynch, etc. etc.

I'm assuming there's four baddies because that's all he's listed. There could be another mafia role, possibly.
Anyhow.
4/15 x 3/13 x 2/11 x 1/9.
Comes out to .0012432012, or .1243201243%.
Around one in a thousandth, not that far fetched for it to happen considering the amount of mafia games that occur.

And lol, Data Analysis.
Try Algebra next time. Generally more effective.

[No exit]

@CaressMeTenderly: Are you sure that there aren't 5 baddies (3 mafia, arso, SK)? Didn't look at replay but if there are 5 then the actual chance is even higher. Also notice that he already know that he himself is not evil so the odds are even better.

[CaressMeTenderly]

Ooh, nice catch. Yeah, I missed plugging him into that entire calculation.
Didn't bother with the replay myself so I'm not sure about the former.

[Mastercraft]

I love how they all said theyd report you to DR after the game

Many people that have no sense of logic (most pubs) threaten to report me to DR when they don't even know how to contact him, oh because theres a Mayor, SK, Doctor and I (Jailor) I kill the Doctor as hes a potential SK, Mayor lynchs SK next day, no loss, just a raging Doctor.

I think you didn't explained it very good, because if you were 4 players (1 SK) and you kill a person, if he isn't SK and SK kills you or the mayor, SK win. So, esplain it or you had lucky...