I see other risks. See below.
Doctor getting the feedback makes healing Cohen a viable strategy. If doctor heals him and doesn't get this feedback, we'll know that either Cohen is lying or that he was drugged. And if he does, Cohen was telling the truth, poisoner is confirmed to be in the game, and we saved someone's life.
However, there are some risks/possible complications:
1. Interceptor (yeah, poisoner and interceptor together would be too many KPN and is unlikely, but we haven't 100% confirmed the existence of the poisoner, so we can't rule out interceptor)
2. Cohen is scum (could be lying about poison to gain trust. Could be savage/evil neutral telling the truth. regardless, if he's scum we'd rather let him die and not have our doctor waste a night healing scum).
3. Kidnapper (can swap cohen so as to prevent a heal on him. So he'll still die, and mafia will be able to easily avoid the doctor for the night)
4. There is no doctor (though doctor is included in almost every setup, it is not certain that one will be in the game, so we could all be depending on a role that doesn't even exist)
But even ignoring all those risks, there is one pretty big problem with having the doctor heal Cohen... There's no way for us to find out what the doctor learned without the doctor revealing. And I don't think having our doctor reveal on Day 2 is a very good plan.
Oh and I forgot to mention Spree Killer, who may have just been unlucky last night and targeted a PR that wasn't visited by anyone. We'll call that risk #5.
Anyway, the point is: I don't think healing Cohen is a good idea.
Just read Donnelly's post.
He just made an extremely nice resume of the whole situation. There are too many things that could fuck this up right now.
And you were referring to Cohen, no? I don't think Cohen is Mafia's main target there, if they are planning something. It's the possible Doctor that would be healing him. That's the guy they want dead.
1) 4) 5) yes small chance is always there
2) it's unlikely because he tries to contribute as much as possible. could be scum's try to get a doc but then he wouldnt say "doc should not heal me"
3) mafia still has to calculate the risk of someone being healed tonight, because they don't know what the doc will do. he would still die and the doc has no chance to heal as i mentioned but then again we have the confirmed kidnapper. why do you think there is a kidnapper, which of the roles i listed are wrong you think?
and no, doc should ofc not reveal^^ but at least he will get some information then
So just because someone contributes you think It's not likely said person would be scum? I'm not sure I like this mentality, child. Obviously scum is going to contribute so they can appear to be town. Basic stuff right there.
And for the possible Kidnapper, not really. Since they would pretty much control who the Doctor's target is and if they half a brain they'll redirect the heal to someone they know won't be attacked.
And it doesn't matter. Even if he has the information, to reveal it to us he would have to out himself as the Doctor that saved Cohen. A revealed Doctor is always a bad thing, especially this early in the game.
My notes are how I perceive people, not exact quotes word for word, take what you want from it and leave what you don't like, the biggest point in my notes was there are a ton of people who are not contributing and some of you are singling out some others for that very reason. Your so called "scumtells" that people claim to have found are nothing more than general speech.
Personally, I think Bekowsky has been the most inconsistent today and did not merit a listening ear when he accused Dunn, yet some of you blindly hopped onto his train without thinking who was leading it. So I have to question why are these people so jumpy?
We have less than 6 hours before day ends and 3 people still haven't even had the nerve to show up. I don't buy any of your "I didn't know game started" BS, it was known a month ago that game would be going now, so drop the idiots excuse and just play.
@ Donnelly, I starting making my notes 4 hours ago, starting with the lowest posters, you got active after I had written your part, thus why I only have you down for 2 posts.
on a side note, McKelty is loosing my favor
I agree with you about a few points. Its just that there are some merits to certain things that have been said that people are just plain missing. I don't agree that there are scumslips in Dunns post. I just agree that there is a little bit of scumminess to be found in his posts. Inconsistancies mostly that can be explain but haven't yet. Notice how most people haven't jumped onto the Dunn train that you are flaming against so heavily.
1.) Why sign up if you apparently have a full schedule?
2.) What do you think of McKelty?
3.) Who do you think is a good lynch/pressure target?
4.) What roles do you think the Mafia have?
5.) What do you think of Dunn?
6.) What do you think of Lichtman?
7.) What do you think of Bekowsky?
Can an interceptor or spree killer target dead bodies?
Morgan, if the answer to the above is negative and you really are a coroner, do you think your role is purely to retrieve last wills? or do you think there is a possible janitor/grave robber.
Galloway, the lack of people jumping at this late hour doesn't mean much.
I have a question. Is it worth it for the Mayor to pass his soma? I say no. I think the risk is too great. However, clear town leaders seem to be emerging.
Congressman, what do you think of our fellow God worshipper Galleta?
Well, the bad news is that we only have 5 hours left without any solid leads.
The good news is that the next 5 hours were the most active last night.
McKelty, due to the circumstances, you are looking to be our main target for today's lynch. If we are gonna start a lynch on someone else, we need a damn good reason. Make your posts count because we need to decide who's getting hanged and start voting asap now. You know as well as anyone else that there are no solid leads right now so saying you aren't the best choice without explaining won't do anymore. I suggest you claim and start sharing your last thoughts on this game. Maybe by some miracle you'll wiggle your way out.
I don't like this post. We can change course of tomorrow's lynch if the night actions reveal McKelty is inno. He shouldn't claim his role but he should definitely act as if his life in on the line though. If no one has a good lynch target, we can and will likely lynch you. It's not a certainty but yeah.
These five hours being the most active make sense. The Americans are getting off of school/work.
Cohen gets just as much information as the Doctor. So we can just rely on him. And if Cohen's story doesn't fit the one the Doc gets, there is still the possibility to reveal. And I seriously doubt, that the Mafia is willing to trade 1 for 1 with Town.
I think that all that Cafarelli wants to say is that it is worth considering the option to heal Cohen instead of straight up saying that Cohen should not be healed. The Mafia has to weight risking to waste a kill if the Doctor does not visit with losing out on a night kill. And I'm pretty sure that there is a Doctor in play. Otherwise there is pretty much no way to prevent poison kills. While Arsonist and Devourer are more likely, I do think that a Spree Killer is possible albeit unlikely.
@Galloway: I see you criticizing the information compilation posts of Cohen and Buchwalter. Instead of your ("utterly useless") negative criticism you could provide some constructive feedback. Also I find reads to be quite subjective, so instead of bloating up the résumé with those I think it's nice that he compiled the most noteworthy events together. Everybody values different things for their notes. I'm not saying that you shouldn't comment on them if your opinion differs from theirs (like you did). A more friendly tone would be nice though.
I have given my own thoughts about how the day is unfolding and who I find scummy today.
It is one thing to make a list of people and list basic observations and anyone can do that. Even scum.
It is another to take it a step further and try and analyze what is said and scum do not typically go that far.
You may call it bloating but I call it useful. Experience shows that I am more correct than you are.
Cohen should be much much more useful and trying very hard to be more use than he has been at this moment. So far it is basic observation and an attempt to catch up to a train that has been going for the majority of the day with tons of people talking about it. Neither of those are good enough posts to be considered a town tell.
There is a purpose to this particular RP. Ryan is the only one I have been using this with because he would be the only person appropriate to do that with. I do keep the posts small and I am mindful of the groups' time.
I do not like being told how to play though. Advice, fine. Told no. You're no host or confirmed town.
In my first post I had a secret message, which when deciphered, merely spelled out "Lynch the scum McKinley"
It was in invisible ink, and is quite visible.
However, you can see that Ballard purposely left that part out without drawing any attention to it.
Does anyone else find this interesting?
Note that you'll have to click on the redirect to Ballard's post. His quote should look the way mine does when I quoted myself, but he purposely left out the code without mentioning it.
Galloway, its day 1. I have no reference point to base anything off of. So pardon me for not going gung ho and finding all the mafia in one day. From what I see in you, if I survive this night, we are going to be rivals competing for the town leader position, I don't know if your scum or not, you haven't given me any reason to think either way. I normally wouldn't share my notes this early in the game since I know it means nothing to 95% of you. But I gave them since there is still that 5% that might value them and understand the meaning in them. My notes look very general, no shit.. nothing has developed in a way I can judge. I can't really judge the main band wagon yet since I don't know McKeltys role, nor can I judge who started it or fueled it since I don't have a ref point on what they've done in the past.
The only thing I know right now is based of experience and knowing that 80% of the FOSing and bickering is based off of nothing and is usually wrong. From what I see, you haven't really found anything concrete either, you are pursuing a hunch. While I don't have anything against that, my opinion on this hunch of yours differs. I'm not considering my post a town tell at all either, just as I don't consider any list of notes a town tell, but if it helps someone else later on then it did its job.
To answer the big question: No, I don't want to die, but at this stage of the game, it would be illogical to risk healing me, especially since we don't know what the mafia have in store. With all the roleblocks and bus claims, I'm not holding out much hope that I'm drugged, although still possible.
It's my opinion that Bekowsky would be a better target than McKelty due to his trolling at start as well as his reasons for starting a new train on Dunn with no real reason that couldn't be found on 30% of the other players. Granted, this town seems to be hung up on McKelty, but the moment I asked for an explanation for the train, the forums went dead for 2 hours without explanation... and there was 5-7 people viewing the thread during that entire time.
That awkward moment when someone calls you a girl. Exams are over, i'm here now. Anyways I'm going to go over my thoughts on the ones that I think are important.
Morgan and yourself both are against codes but for different reasons. Yours is because you think Mafia can use it to send codes to eachother easier. His is that they can be easily cracked. Meta-ing from last FM, the mafia witch codes based on the first word in their first post. A lot of people check them, and I always note the ciphers that are strange or seem to be a message.
However, it would be a waste of effort to do all that. I'm willing to back off the idea until I have a better idea of what mafia we are dealing with. I doubt there would be a disguiser and a poisoner.
My guess for the mafia roles - godfather (obv), poisoner, drug dealer, consig, blackmailer (agree on others points about the unique roles), consort (because of 3 roleblocks).
Mckelty hopefully shows up soon. Morgan pointing out that he most likely has a gun is worrying to me.
OK. I am home now and here is what I have compiled.
- Roles list: based on feedbacks and host knowledge -
Spoiler : Roles list :
- Early Leads -
Spoiler : Early leads :
-vote FM Donnoly