[QUOTE=Helz;936800]
I do not think there is some cover up. Just that the metrics used to evaluate CPI and Inflation are not effective even if they exclude secondary markets. This push that argues all the issues are transitory is pretty ridiculous in my opinion although time will tell whenever pricing stabilizes. I personally doubt a 2x4 will ever go back to being $2.38[/QUOTE]
Like I said, if you're interested in lumber prices, then refer to a lumber cost index: [url]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0811[/url]
As you can see, the indices have increased by 254% when you compare May 2020 and 2021 indices. This is most likely as a result of last year's contracts expiring and new commodity contracts being renegotiated at the current market price, which in turn is also driving other industries relying on lumber materials downstream.
Originally Posted by Helz
I do not think there is some cover up. Just that the metrics used to evaluate CPI and Inflation are not effective even if they exclude secondary markets. This push that argues all the issues are transitory is pretty ridiculous in my opinion although time will tell whenever pricing stabilizes. I personally doubt a 2x4 will ever go back to being $2.38
As you can see, the indices have increased by 254% when you compare May 2020 and 2021 indices. This is most likely as a result of last year's contracts expiring and new commodity contracts being renegotiated at the current market price, which in turn is also driving other industries relying on lumber materials downstream.
If you want to accurately measure inflation of certain products, then use the inflation rate for those product sectors. The CPI is only good for one thing and one thing only - to determine the inflation of the aggregate macroeconomy. If gas prices go up, but medical care commodities go down then that CPI will reflect that. Similarly, use inflation rates specific for your state only as a general CPI for the entire country may not be as accurate. So if you're interested in Texan foods and Texan house prices, just stick to those indices instead. Or even better, stick to the city or general region of those prices (e.g., real estate reports).
Also as in all science, personal anecdotes are bullshit unless many people are reporting same phenomenon under randomized controlled trials. You're only seeing like 6 data points whereas these government statisticians are seeing sample sizes of > thousands. You don't even need more than one degree to understand this.
LMAO @ this thread.
If you want to accurately measure inflation of certain products, then use the inflation rate for those product sectors. The CPI is only good for one thing and one thing only - to determine the inflation of the aggregate macroeconomy. If gas prices go up, but medical care commodities go down then that CPI will reflect that. Similarly, use inflation rates specific for your state only as a general CPI for the entire country may not be as accurate. So if you're interested in Texan foods and Texan house prices, just stick to those indices instead. Or even better, stick to the city or general region of those prices (e.g., real estate reports).
Also as in all science, personal anecdotes are bullshit unless many people are reporting same phenomenon under randomized controlled trials. You're only seeing like 6 data points whereas these government statisticians are seeing sample sizes of > thousands. You don't even need more than one degree to understand this.
Originally Posted by Helz
I do not think there is some cover up. Just that the metrics used to evaluate CPI and Inflation are not effective even if they exclude secondary markets. This push that argues all the issues are transitory is pretty ridiculous in my opinion although time will tell whenever pricing stabilizes. I personally doubt a 2x4 will ever go back to being $2.38
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