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[QUOTE=OzyWho;911432]I can never sleep on full moons. Disregarding all the other nights, of course.[/QUOTE]

^
And then, awake in your bed in Moscow, you hear screams down the street...

Originally Posted by OzyWho

I can never sleep on full moons. Disregarding all the other nights, of course.

^
And then, awake in your bed in Moscow, you hear screams down the street...

[QUOTE=FrostByte;911409]It's confirmation bias, dummy. That shit happens equally regardless of role. You very rarely post in any SFM when you sign regardless of alignment, you'd know better than anyone that townies lurk, too.[/QUOTE]

You're saying it in a very shitty rude manner (although I'm not going to accuse you of starting the nice mood), but you're right: townies do it all the time too. Confirmation bias is playing hard there. What can be scummy is when there's a provable obvious scum intent behind a [I]sudden[/I] inactivity. This nearly never happens, though, and "activity tells" are used WAY too much.

Originally Posted by FrostByte

It's confirmation bias, dummy. That shit happens equally regardless of role. You very rarely post in any SFM when you sign regardless of alignment, you'd know better than anyone that townies lurk, too.

You're saying it in a very shitty rude manner (although I'm not going to accuse you of starting the nice mood), but you're right: townies do it all the time too. Confirmation bias is playing hard there. What can be scummy is when there's a provable obvious scum intent behind a sudden inactivity. This nearly never happens, though, and "activity tells" are used WAY too much.

[MENTION=8570]yzb25[/MENTION] damn you for making me doubt myself about mesk, and damn me for having doubted myself because I thought I might have been biased even though I felt completely unbiased in my reads lol.
You did a great job this game ^^

@yzb25 damn you for making me doubt myself about mesk, and damn me for having doubted myself because I thought I might have been biased even though I felt completely unbiased in my reads lol.
You did a great job this game ^^

[QUOTE=Renegade;911244]You are free to believe whatever you want to believe. Ya still lost :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:[/QUOTE]

To be fair, you being mafia-peeked was drawing an easy path to victory, no matter which setup we were in, so it's not really your fault: it was better for your team if you were dead assuming we had Illuminati, and it was impossible for you to avoid death in a no Illuminati setup.

Originally Posted by Renegade

You are free to believe whatever you want to believe. Ya still lost

To be fair, you being mafia-peeked was drawing an easy path to victory, no matter which setup we were in, so it's not really your fault: it was better for your team if you were dead assuming we had Illuminati, and it was impossible for you to avoid death in a no Illuminati setup.

[QUOTE=Renegade;911180]Too stressful.[/QUOTE]

Rip. No need to stress over this to the point of it being annoying though, it's all for fun, after all.

Originally Posted by Renegade

Too stressful.

Rip. No need to stress over this to the point of it being annoying though, it's all for fun, after all.

[vote]Stealthbomber16[/vote]
for saving a doomed slot

GG WP, was very fun and challenging.

-vote Stealthbomber16

for saving a doomed slot

GG WP, was very fun and challenging.

[QUOTE=Renegade;911018]Auwt, you have been accused of being illuminati, what say you?

Auwt:

[img]https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/unionleader.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/ef/eeff0ad4-dbd0-11e8-8c58-4735aa66c95e/5bd795cb76678.preview.jpg?resize=689%2C438[/img][/QUOTE]

best picture to start a page XD

Originally Posted by Renegade

Auwt, you have been accused of being illuminati, what say you?

Auwt:

best picture to start a page XD

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910995]ah, very well... consider away... i think we are both in agreeance what's clear here[/QUOTE]

Indeed.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

ah, very well... consider away... i think we are both in agreeance what's clear here

Indeed.

[QUOTE=bakermir;910968]sure, I will get on to it. I honestly think you are scum but if you can prove me wrong then I take that as a win because I know where to look next.[/QUOTE]

For the record, I think you are non-illuminati mafia because of Matt's play. It fits perfectly: scummy but highly pro-town early on with what really looked like scumhunting (because he wanted to find potential illuminati), fits in a mafia team with Renegade really well interactions-wise. Also, you're saying "my stance on things is rather artificial". I have no idea why people always say that about my play when I'm just being myself, but anyway, it'd be nice to elaborate on this, I guess.

Originally Posted by bakermir

sure, I will get on to it. I honestly think you are scum but if you can prove me wrong then I take that as a win because I know where to look next.

For the record, I think you are non-illuminati mafia because of Matt's play. It fits perfectly: scummy but highly pro-town early on with what really looked like scumhunting (because he wanted to find potential illuminati), fits in a mafia team with Renegade really well interactions-wise. Also, you're saying "my stance on things is rather artificial". I have no idea why people always say that about my play when I'm just being myself, but anyway, it'd be nice to elaborate on this, I guess.

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910992]please don't tell me you're buying it[/QUOTE]

Not at all. I'm just processing all possibilities. And right now, this awfully looks like scum trying to look like they have a pro-town role, but I'm trying to consider everything plausible.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

please don't tell me you're buying it

Not at all. I'm just processing all possibilities. And right now, this awfully looks like scum trying to look like they have a pro-town role, but I'm trying to consider everything plausible.

For those who doubt yzb's townness, here are some quotes.
[QUOTE=yzb25;910287]mm pushing mesk rn does not look pro town from where I'm sitting. I deliberately abstained from drawing too much of a judgement early on because I'm aware of my own shortcomings while reading the slot. You pushing mesk here rather than giving us actual insights would be like me pushing matt except times 100[/QUOTE]
Look at this post and at the ones yzb posted after it, developping his thoughts. It was based on him misunderstanding the interaction between Mesk and I.
[QUOTE=yzb25;910308]I guess I was thinking of that specific post when I voted you. (#351) It didn't look genuine. And it just seemed like a weird thing to take away from mesk's votes back there. Pushing anyone is great I guess. Maybe I'm just pulling shit out my ass to justify what my gut feels lol.[/QUOTE]
This looks like a genuine townie's doubt.
[QUOTE=yzb25;910311]omg I'm such an imbecile. Someone should ban me from posting in games past a certain time. My brain is half in the trash LOL.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=yzb25;910315]thank god because I would scumread myself for what I just posted LOL[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=yzb25;910316]oh no this is going to become one of those things that wakes me up shivering in a cold sweat in the middle of the night in 6 months. I thought I'd moved past this.

I'm tempted to try and end the IRL night on a better note but I think I'd just cock it up again LOL

I'm just gonna take the L on this one.[/QUOTE]

And this is just "oh nooo lol" realizing he made a mistake. If all of this was faked to get out of a bad scumpaint, it both means yzb is amazing at getting out of bad situation and that he's amazing at creating them (the push on me was obviously misguided to anyone who had read the game a little bit and wouldn't have convinced anyone). Given his experience, his calculated nature and his skill level, I really think this was all a genuine town mistake.

~~

[QUOTE=Renegade;910318]Gut reaction is this is a misfire on YZBs part. Will write more in a bit.[/QUOTE]

Just found this while lookin for yzb's posts: another fencesitty/inconclusive post from Renegade that means nothing. He never "wrote more" about it, btw.

The choice is rather clear to me.

For those who doubt yzb's townness, here are some quotes.

Originally Posted by yzb25

mm pushing mesk rn does not look pro town from where I'm sitting. I deliberately abstained from drawing too much of a judgement early on because I'm aware of my own shortcomings while reading the slot. You pushing mesk here rather than giving us actual insights would be like me pushing matt except times 100

Look at this post and at the ones yzb posted after it, developping his thoughts. It was based on him misunderstanding the interaction between Mesk and I.

Originally Posted by yzb25

I guess I was thinking of that specific post when I voted you. (#351) It didn't look genuine. And it just seemed like a weird thing to take away from mesk's votes back there. Pushing anyone is great I guess. Maybe I'm just pulling shit out my ass to justify what my gut feels lol.

This looks like a genuine townie's doubt.

Originally Posted by yzb25

omg I'm such an imbecile. Someone should ban me from posting in games past a certain time. My brain is half in the trash LOL.

Originally Posted by yzb25

thank god because I would scumread myself for what I just posted LOL

Originally Posted by yzb25

oh no this is going to become one of those things that wakes me up shivering in a cold sweat in the middle of the night in 6 months. I thought I'd moved past this.

I'm tempted to try and end the IRL night on a better note but I think I'd just cock it up again LOL

I'm just gonna take the L on this one.

And this is just "oh nooo lol" realizing he made a mistake. If all of this was faked to get out of a bad scumpaint, it both means yzb is amazing at getting out of bad situation and that he's amazing at creating them (the push on me was obviously misguided to anyone who had read the game a little bit and wouldn't have convinced anyone). Given his experience, his calculated nature and his skill level, I really think this was all a genuine town mistake.

~~

Originally Posted by Renegade

Gut reaction is this is a misfire on YZBs part. Will write more in a bit.

Just found this while lookin for yzb's posts: another fencesitty/inconclusive post from Renegade that means nothing. He never "wrote more" about it, btw.

The choice is rather clear to me.

[QUOTE=Renegade;910966]I'm the doctor.

I was roleblocked last night.

And of course, there is no world you would vote yzb over me because of his and your history here. Vet meta bullshite. You know the drill.[/QUOTE]

[B][I]Huh?[/I][/B] Okay XD

Who did you heal N1?

Also, I hard claim [COLOR="#00FF00"]citizen[/COLOR].

Originally Posted by Renegade

I'm the doctor.

I was roleblocked last night.

And of course, there is no world you would vote yzb over me because of his and your history here. Vet meta bullshite. You know the drill.

Huh? Okay XD

Who did you heal N1?

Also, I hard claim citizen.

Baker, why is my D1 "quite suspicious", pray tell? You haven't explained that yet about either me or DM's slot.

Baker, why is my D1 "quite suspicious", pray tell? You haven't explained that yet about either me or DM's slot.

I think at this point, we should strive to eliminate the "escape claims" by making everyone claim, so I agree. I'll claim if we come to an agreement on that matter.
Renegade should [I]definetly[/I] claim, though, since he's very likely to be today's lynch.

I agree that we're in a yzb vs renegade situation here, and there's no damn world in which I am not voting Renegade over Yzb, both because of my read on yzb this game (prior to his claim) and because his claim, if it were fake, would doom him after Renegade's flip.

I think at this point, we should strive to eliminate the "escape claims" by making everyone claim, so I agree. I'll claim if we come to an agreement on that matter.
Renegade should definetly claim, though, since he's very likely to be today's lynch.

I agree that we're in a yzb vs renegade situation here, and there's no damn world in which I am not voting Renegade over Yzb, both because of my read on yzb this game (prior to his claim) and because his claim, if it were fake, would doom him after Renegade's flip.

[QUOTE=bakermir;910950]I see where you are coming from yzb. Maybe there is already some mason-mason or gf-consig conflict we don't know about, we don't know this atm..

How can we confirm illuminati? We can eliminate someone for it OR vigi and martin shoots one at night. Remember, GF sanitizes kills. This is why I am quite annoyed at people not pushing for a flip eod1. CFD mattzed or frinckles = we see the role and solve the setup from there. Now we will never know what Frinckles was. My guess is that they were most likely VT but I am more interested in a massclaim here I think given the small amount of players we can't really gamble here anymore on D2. There are too many risks.

Like, what if Martin is fake? I think he isn't for reasons (basically meta) but if the player wasn't Martin but anyone else, do you people think it would be safe to take their claim for granted? I don't think Martin would fake claim a role d1 but then I always get bamboozled by them like last game I played with him, I was only able to PoE them near the end because he rarely does scummy things and I don't think I have ever seen him do fake claims. Martin is a busser though so their check on Auwt could be fake for ML or real SvS check.. I mean, there is a chance both Martin and Auwt being illuminati here and that means Consigliere is Mafia because GF will be killed at night while Martin gets confirmed against the real theorist and town vigi.. Martin could be mafia here too.. IF Martin is truly conspiracy dude then they can only confirm illuminati if they coordinate with town tpr's. Seeing Martin was one of the people that didn't prevent sleep, I don't know if I can trust them fully right now.



[U]
If I am mason or mafia I would have suspected the other person btw[/U] Like cmon, why wouldn't you? Only mafia, illuminati or masons would know if there is illuminati or not because of night chat they have. But then, why would they push for it when setup isn't even confirmed yet so all I think is mafia and masons don't know this yet. IDK I think this whole thing looks like speculating at this point. I would rather know why a CFD didn't happen eod1 and what were people thinking with that sleep.

also GF NK on Frinckles could be a topic of discussion too. MattZed and Frinckles were top wagons yesterday, I know I replaced MattZed but I don't think they were scummy overall. They were rather enthusiastic about setup and I think they were trying to save themselves from ML instead of Frinckles there because MattZed's rolecard and Frinckles wifom their role. I think Frinckles was rather towny with that wifom btw so I don't really understand why Mattzed and Frinckles were top wagons to begin with. Overall d1 of this game looks like shit and I blame MM and DM for it, also the off wagon voters..[/QUOTE]

If we eliminate the Mafia and the game isn't over, then we know there's Illuminati. It seems to be the only way to confirm it.

Illuminati don't flip as Illuminati. The flip wouldn't have helped us that much; we'd probably just have a green Citizen flip if we had lynched Frinckles (no matter his real alignment). In fact, him being nightkilled may be more telling than him being lynched, since I doubt the illuminati mafia would let a teammate get killed like this (even if he didn't control the nightkill as consig, he could likely still talk the GF out of it).

If Martin's claim is fake, the real conspiracy theorist who didn't CC is basically playing against himself at this point. Plus, Martin is proposing to shoot someone, which he couldn't do as non-CT (if he were godfather, he would automatically sanitize, so it'd be obvious). I am ruling this possibility out completely.

Oh yea, I'm not sure I said anything about that but [B]if I were mafia or mason, I would suspect my teammate[/B].

I disagree that "D1 was shit". Many interactions were made, good setup discussion came out, Martin's claim is done and helped us establish a PoE, etc. But more importantly, I'd like to know which conclusion you draw from "blaming MM and DM for [the shit D1]" about our alignments.

Originally Posted by bakermir

I see where you are coming from yzb. Maybe there is already some mason-mason or gf-consig conflict we don't know about, we don't know this atm..

How can we confirm illuminati? We can eliminate someone for it OR vigi and martin shoots one at night. Remember, GF sanitizes kills. This is why I am quite annoyed at people not pushing for a flip eod1. CFD mattzed or frinckles = we see the role and solve the setup from there. Now we will never know what Frinckles was. My guess is that they were most likely VT but I am more interested in a massclaim here I think given the small amount of players we can't really gamble here anymore on D2. There are too many risks.

Like, what if Martin is fake? I think he isn't for reasons (basically meta) but if the player wasn't Martin but anyone else, do you people think it would be safe to take their claim for granted? I don't think Martin would fake claim a role d1 but then I always get bamboozled by them like last game I played with him, I was only able to PoE them near the end because he rarely does scummy things and I don't think I have ever seen him do fake claims. Martin is a busser though so their check on Auwt could be fake for ML or real SvS check.. I mean, there is a chance both Martin and Auwt being illuminati here and that means Consigliere is Mafia because GF will be killed at night while Martin gets confirmed against the real theorist and town vigi.. Martin could be mafia here too.. IF Martin is truly conspiracy dude then they can only confirm illuminati if they coordinate with town tpr's. Seeing Martin was one of the people that didn't prevent sleep, I don't know if I can trust them fully right now.




If I am mason or mafia I would have suspected the other person btw Like cmon, why wouldn't you? Only mafia, illuminati or masons would know if there is illuminati or not because of night chat they have. But then, why would they push for it when setup isn't even confirmed yet so all I think is mafia and masons don't know this yet. IDK I think this whole thing looks like speculating at this point. I would rather know why a CFD didn't happen eod1 and what were people thinking with that sleep.

also GF NK on Frinckles could be a topic of discussion too. MattZed and Frinckles were top wagons yesterday, I know I replaced MattZed but I don't think they were scummy overall. They were rather enthusiastic about setup and I think they were trying to save themselves from ML instead of Frinckles there because MattZed's rolecard and Frinckles wifom their role. I think Frinckles was rather towny with that wifom btw so I don't really understand why Mattzed and Frinckles were top wagons to begin with. Overall d1 of this game looks like shit and I blame MM and DM for it, also the off wagon voters..

If we eliminate the Mafia and the game isn't over, then we know there's Illuminati. It seems to be the only way to confirm it.

Illuminati don't flip as Illuminati. The flip wouldn't have helped us that much; we'd probably just have a green Citizen flip if we had lynched Frinckles (no matter his real alignment). In fact, him being nightkilled may be more telling than him being lynched, since I doubt the illuminati mafia would let a teammate get killed like this (even if he didn't control the nightkill as consig, he could likely still talk the GF out of it).

If Martin's claim is fake, the real conspiracy theorist who didn't CC is basically playing against himself at this point. Plus, Martin is proposing to shoot someone, which he couldn't do as non-CT (if he were godfather, he would automatically sanitize, so it'd be obvious). I am ruling this possibility out completely.

Oh yea, I'm not sure I said anything about that but if I were mafia or mason, I would suspect my teammate.

I disagree that "D1 was shit". Many interactions were made, good setup discussion came out, Martin's claim is done and helped us establish a PoE, etc. But more importantly, I'd like to know which conclusion you draw from "blaming MM and DM for [the shit D1]" about our alignments.

[QUOTE=MartinGG99;910928]How do you feel about renegade being given the chance to kill his teammate (whomever it might be)?

There's a few ways we can go about this and I would prefer if you gave me any idea as to what that should be.

One is to have me shoot either MZ or Auwt while we lynch Renegade and etc.

If there IS illuminati though having me check a 2nd time could be a very bad idea which puts us (presuming !non-illuminati Renegade) down to 4v3.[/QUOTE]

Assuming there IS Illuminati:
If we lynch a non-Illuminati today and if we assume Frinckles was not Illuminati, and then if Mafia kills a non-Illuminati tonight, and that you check someone tonight, that brings us down to 3v3. This can only happen if we lynch the [I]wrong[/I] mafia member (the one who's not illuminati) or if Yzb is full of shit. While I'm willing to lose to the latter, the former is too possible to be dismissed imo. This means if we lynch Mafia tonight, you probably should shoot Auwt, just in case. If we're in a non-illuminati setup, it won't hurt us too much anyway since the last scum should be relatively easy to find, unless he managed to get widely townread (which would be yzb, and as I said, I'm willing to lose to a scum!yzb world).

Also, although Auwt seemed towny early on, it seems he has coasted away with his townpoints, which doesn't look good, so I'm not closed to the possibility of Illuminati!Auwt.

Originally Posted by MartinGG99

How do you feel about renegade being given the chance to kill his teammate (whomever it might be)?

There's a few ways we can go about this and I would prefer if you gave me any idea as to what that should be.

One is to have me shoot either MZ or Auwt while we lynch Renegade and etc.

If there IS illuminati though having me check a 2nd time could be a very bad idea which puts us (presuming !non-illuminati Renegade) down to 4v3.

Assuming there IS Illuminati:
If we lynch a non-Illuminati today and if we assume Frinckles was not Illuminati, and then if Mafia kills a non-Illuminati tonight, and that you check someone tonight, that brings us down to 3v3. This can only happen if we lynch the wrong mafia member (the one who's not illuminati) or if Yzb is full of shit. While I'm willing to lose to the latter, the former is too possible to be dismissed imo. This means if we lynch Mafia tonight, you probably should shoot Auwt, just in case. If we're in a non-illuminati setup, it won't hurt us too much anyway since the last scum should be relatively easy to find, unless he managed to get widely townread (which would be yzb, and as I said, I'm willing to lose to a scum!yzb world).

Also, although Auwt seemed towny early on, it seems he has coasted away with his townpoints, which doesn't look good, so I'm not closed to the possibility of Illuminati!Auwt.

Oh yea and Mesk is very probably town too, adding her to the list

Oh yea and Mesk is very probably town too, adding her to the list

[QUOTE=yzb25;910924]The Q is whether there really is an illuminati (and I suppose will remain the Q for the rest of the game).

I could still be swayed either way, but various things indicate to me that there [I]is[/I] an illuminati. But I'll abstain from final judgement for now.[/QUOTE]

If we lynch the mafia (probably Renegade and Mattzed's slot) and that the game is still not over, well, we go ahead and lynch Auwt. There will be no more nightkills, since the Mafia will be dead, which least at most 1 illuminati with no night kill. That is quite nice. I trust you as non-Illuminati, Martin is a confirmed non-llluminati, I strongly doubt DM/SB is Illuminati, and I know I'm not Illuminati. I'd say that's a path to victory, no matter what happens, if we manage to lynch the Mafia right now.

[COLOR="#003080"][SIZE=1]P.S. if you decide to lynch me for posting a path to victory like you did in Eternia, I'm gonna haunt your asses and [MENTION=45595]Oberon[/MENTION]'s ghost for all eternity[/SIZE][/COLOR]

Originally Posted by yzb25

The Q is whether there really is an illuminati (and I suppose will remain the Q for the rest of the game).

I could still be swayed either way, but various things indicate to me that there is an illuminati. But I'll abstain from final judgement for now.

If we lynch the mafia (probably Renegade and Mattzed's slot) and that the game is still not over, well, we go ahead and lynch Auwt. There will be no more nightkills, since the Mafia will be dead, which least at most 1 illuminati with no night kill. That is quite nice. I trust you as non-Illuminati, Martin is a confirmed non-llluminati, I strongly doubt DM/SB is Illuminati, and I know I'm not Illuminati. I'd say that's a path to victory, no matter what happens, if we manage to lynch the Mafia right now.

P.S. if you decide to lynch me for posting a path to victory like you did in Eternia, I'm gonna haunt your asses and @Oberon 's ghost for all eternity

[QUOTE=yzb25;910923][I]ahem[/I]

[SIZE=4]I am sheriff, Renegade is mafia[/SIZE]

(for realzies this time)[/QUOTE]
LOL
I love it XD

This makes things even better. If Renegade flips mafia (and actually in any case imo, but ESPECIALLY if Renegade flips mafia), check Mattzed's slot.
[QUOTE=yzb25;910922][MENTION=29012]Auwt[/MENTION]

Fine, I will help you out.

By some perverse coincidence, I actually checked renegade last night like mesk falsely claimed, and renegade did appear as mafia.

This is not a second gambit (that would be dumb). This is 100% serious. I tried to crumb yesterday (IRL yesterday) that I was also sheriff when I randomly brought up the possibility of 2 sherrifs to mesk. But I'm awful at softclaims and have no idea whether I did it well.

Anyway, this day is evidently not heading anywhere fast, and there's a good chance I'll be dead tomorrow with a wiped lw. So I may as well reveal this information now. Auwt, if you are town and townread me, you now know renegade is mafia and there is no illuminati. Your objective is clearly to ensure renegade is lynched today.

Perhaps I speak from a tunnel, but I struggle to imagine a world where the scumteam is not mattzed / renegade. Almost the only way matt interacted with renegade was to probe renegade about his voting interests. And it is certainly correct to probe your mafia teammate for their voting interests in this setup (or feign probing). He handled renegade with mitts for the entire day.[/QUOTE]

Oh well, I wrote the comments above without reading this, and now that I read it, you had already said what I said lol. 100 % agreed.
I am very interested in seeing Auwt's reaction to this, btw.

Originally Posted by yzb25

ahem

I am sheriff, Renegade is mafia

(for realzies this time)

LOL
I love it XD

This makes things even better. If Renegade flips mafia (and actually in any case imo, but ESPECIALLY if Renegade flips mafia), check Mattzed's slot.

Originally Posted by yzb25

@Auwt

Fine, I will help you out.

By some perverse coincidence, I actually checked renegade last night like mesk falsely claimed, and renegade did appear as mafia.

This is not a second gambit (that would be dumb). This is 100% serious. I tried to crumb yesterday (IRL yesterday) that I was also sheriff when I randomly brought up the possibility of 2 sherrifs to mesk. But I'm awful at softclaims and have no idea whether I did it well.

Anyway, this day is evidently not heading anywhere fast, and there's a good chance I'll be dead tomorrow with a wiped lw. So I may as well reveal this information now. Auwt, if you are town and townread me, you now know renegade is mafia and there is no illuminati. Your objective is clearly to ensure renegade is lynched today.

Perhaps I speak from a tunnel, but I struggle to imagine a world where the scumteam is not mattzed / renegade. Almost the only way matt interacted with renegade was to probe renegade about his voting interests. And it is certainly correct to probe your mafia teammate for their voting interests in this setup (or feign probing). He handled renegade with mitts for the entire day.

Oh well, I wrote the comments above without reading this, and now that I read it, you had already said what I said lol. 100 % agreed.
I am very interested in seeing Auwt's reaction to this, btw.

[QUOTE=Mike;910914][COLOR="#00FFFF"][SIZE=1]EOD will be fixed back to normal. This will be done by extending the night phase. EOD today will be as posted . But the night will be extended 9 hours. Bringing day3 Start 7pm CST and EOD back to that time as well. This is to fix the pause in the game to bring the game back to balance. [/SIZE][/COLOR][/QUOTE]
Nice ^^
[QUOTE=Mesk514;910915]I have the same thought process as well, however, I just feel like if I was in his position I would have just slapped my vote down between either of us. Either way, both of us are scum from his PoV, why wait til someone else demands he votes? if he was hesitant to vote in the first place, why even slap your vote when called to place one given you're "unsure" which is the best course of action. MZ determined the best course of action for him when he was pinged to vote. not himself.

idk if that makes sense, but it does in my head[/QUOTE]
It does make sense, but doing what he did also makes sense, so you can't scumread him for it lol.
Being afraid to vote is indeed a scumtell. I just doubt he was like "heeyyy scummate(s), pls coach me!" in the thread. When people are accused of having done that, it's never true (even if they're scum).

I could roll with a Renegade lynch. [vote]Renegade[/vote]
[QUOTE=yzb25;910921]Let's not forget how matt casually read rene's early play as town for the groundbreaking insight that citi claims are anti-town, and never seriously pushed the slot for the entire game. I have no idea how someone could [I]townread[/I] renegade's early play, putting aside whatever MM read from renegade's stream of consciousness later on.[/QUOTE]

Did he? I thought he was more in agreement with the DM vote than he was townreading Renegade for any other reason.
If you're actually right on that though, and that Renegade flips mafia, I'm pretty sure we have a Mattzed-Renegade team and that I was 100 % right in my last will.

Originally Posted by Mike

EOD will be fixed back to normal. This will be done by extending the night phase. EOD today will be as posted . But the night will be extended 9 hours. Bringing day3 Start 7pm CST and EOD back to that time as well. This is to fix the pause in the game to bring the game back to balance.

Nice ^^

Originally Posted by Mesk514

I have the same thought process as well, however, I just feel like if I was in his position I would have just slapped my vote down between either of us. Either way, both of us are scum from his PoV, why wait til someone else demands he votes? if he was hesitant to vote in the first place, why even slap your vote when called to place one given you're "unsure" which is the best course of action. MZ determined the best course of action for him when he was pinged to vote. not himself.

idk if that makes sense, but it does in my head

It does make sense, but doing what he did also makes sense, so you can't scumread him for it lol.
Being afraid to vote is indeed a scumtell. I just doubt he was like "heeyyy scummate(s), pls coach me!" in the thread. When people are accused of having done that, it's never true (even if they're scum).

I could roll with a Renegade lynch.

-vote Renegade

Originally Posted by yzb25

Let's not forget how matt casually read rene's early play as town for the groundbreaking insight that citi claims are anti-town, and never seriously pushed the slot for the entire game. I have no idea how someone could townread renegade's early play, putting aside whatever MM read from renegade's stream of consciousness later on.

Did he? I thought he was more in agreement with the DM vote than he was townreading Renegade for any other reason.
If you're actually right on that though, and that Renegade flips mafia, I'm pretty sure we have a Mattzed-Renegade team and that I was 100 % right in my last will.

[QUOTE=Stealthbomber16;910837]Wish you the best [MENTION=10188]MattZed[/MENTION][/QUOTE]

Same =(

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

Wish you the best @MattZed

Same =(

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910833]Eh, I understand what you're saying but I'm pretty sure that only really excuses the PoV that I was the consig. I'm i was an Illuminati sheriff the who the fuck cares which order Auwt and I are lynched? Also, I'm pretty sure if he believed I was a true consing then we wouldn't have any Illuminati and the feedback ok auwt should be dismissed instead of taken into consideration.

I understand it's flawed, but to me it's telling. It's not really even considered properly by him. He needed help to get out of my claim[/QUOTE]

You could have been a red consig with a purple godfather, which means it was 100 % the best course of action to lynch Auwt before you (I literally had this thought process myself). But I guess your point doesn't consist of "he's confirmed scum due to that", so I get it.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

Eh, I understand what you're saying but I'm pretty sure that only really excuses the PoV that I was the consig. I'm i was an Illuminati sheriff the who the fuck cares which order Auwt and I are lynched? Also, I'm pretty sure if he believed I was a true consing then we wouldn't have any Illuminati and the feedback ok auwt should be dismissed instead of taken into consideration.

I understand it's flawed, but to me it's telling. It's not really even considered properly by him. He needed help to get out of my claim

You could have been a red consig with a purple godfather, which means it was 100 % the best course of action to lynch Auwt before you (I literally had this thought process myself). But I guess your point doesn't consist of "he's confirmed scum due to that", so I get it.

Public service announcement: given the EoD time change, I will not be present at EoDs in the future.

[QUOTE=Renegade;910905]Then don't sign for a game and use it as a shield? �\_(ツ)_/�

I forgot we are on sc2mafia where goofy stuff like that gets a pass cuz you've been around for years. But I'm the fence sitter![/QUOTE]

Mesk has been reasonably active this game, I'd say. Partially thanks to the pressure Matt led early on, sure, but you can't accuse her of inactivity lol, that's not fair. She gave more definite conclusions that you did, and her gambit, although it probably didn't work out as well as expected due to her misreading/not reading the setup, is town-telling. Your attacks here look like OMGUS; plus, if I'm not mistaken (I could be since I haven't read everything yet), you haven't really considered the gambit as even possibly town-telling, which is... strange.

Public service announcement: given the EoD time change, I will not be present at EoDs in the future.

Originally Posted by Renegade

Then don't sign for a game and use it as a shield? �\_(ツ)_/�

I forgot we are on sc2mafia where goofy stuff like that gets a pass cuz you've been around for years. But I'm the fence sitter!

Mesk has been reasonably active this game, I'd say. Partially thanks to the pressure Matt led early on, sure, but you can't accuse her of inactivity lol, that's not fair. She gave more definite conclusions that you did, and her gambit, although it probably didn't work out as well as expected due to her misreading/not reading the setup, is town-telling. Your attacks here look like OMGUS; plus, if I'm not mistaken (I could be since I haven't read everything yet), you haven't really considered the gambit as even possibly town-telling, which is... strange.

[QUOTE=Mike;910813][SIZE=3][COLOR="#00FFFF"]Due to MattZed having a real life emergency I will be replacing him out. I do not have his replacement yet. [MENTION=10188]MattZed[/MENTION] please remove your vote before you go so I do not have to reset votes. Do not post anything about game Mattzed just vote unvote ty. I will say who is replacement soon. [/COLOR][/SIZE][/QUOTE]

NNNOOOOOO MY SCUMMA-- I MEAN... MY AMBIGUOUS READ! :(

Originally Posted by Mike

Due to MattZed having a real life emergency I will be replacing him out. I do not have his replacement yet. @MattZed please remove your vote before you go so I do not have to reset votes. Do not post anything about game Mattzed just vote unvote ty. I will say who is replacement soon.

NNNOOOOOO MY SCUMMA-- I MEAN... MY AMBIGUOUS READ!

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910808]He said my claim was planned in a night chat lol then immediately jumped to the conclusion that i was a consig myself or a sheriff.
If I was consig myself then i would be on his side if there was Illuminati, which was the revealed feedback from martin. If I was Illuminati sheriff then why does it matter if people wanna vote auwt or not? either one of us from his PoV would be Illuminati lolololol, he literally had to have MZ ping him to vote me then said I'm not sure if people wanted to vote auwt or not. WHICH WOULDN'T MATTER. Again, more fence sitting. Fence sitting to appeal to others[/QUOTE]
Note that I townread you now so I'm just arguing about the validity of the Renegade scumread here.

Martin's feedback doesn't reveal anything about the presence of Illuminati: if there are none, his feedback is a coinflip. Your point about general fencesitting is valid, but this is based on a bad premise.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

He said my claim was planned in a night chat lol then immediately jumped to the conclusion that i was a consig myself or a sheriff.
If I was consig myself then i would be on his side if there was Illuminati, which was the revealed feedback from martin. If I was Illuminati sheriff then why does it matter if people wanna vote auwt or not? either one of us from his PoV would be Illuminati lolololol, he literally had to have MZ ping him to vote me then said I'm not sure if people wanted to vote auwt or not. WHICH WOULDN'T MATTER. Again, more fence sitting. Fence sitting to appeal to others

Note that I townread you now so I'm just arguing about the validity of the Renegade scumread here.

Martin's feedback doesn't reveal anything about the presence of Illuminati: if there are none, his feedback is a coinflip. Your point about general fencesitting is valid, but this is based on a bad premise.

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910720]😂😂😂😂😂 lynch me after, idc, don't tell me you're not scum when my feedback says you are.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910724]Anywho, lynch me idc but you're mafia/consign/godfather/whatever scum name you wanna be called. So we know you're scum.

[Vote]Auwt[/vote][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910725]Your charts mean absolutely jack shit given they come from scum 😂😂😂 i poked auwt several times[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910730]😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 1V1 ME, that was absolutely false[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910745]MattZed is already widely scum read, he can be lynched without a check. FENCE SITTING.... it's all about fence sitting. I always shoot/check the fence sitters.[/QUOTE]

[unvote][/unvote]
This is not a scum derp: there's obvious intent to keep pushing to get a reaction even despite the fact green sheriffs don't get exact role was outed earlier. I'm not lynching Mesk the Eternal Cu--I mean Citizen, at least not now. This looks like a genuine reaction test to me. I guess it could be a complicated way to get townpoints as scum, but that seems unlikely and risky to me, so I'd even say Mesk is now a townread of mine.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

😂😂😂😂😂 lynch me after, idc, don't tell me you're not scum when my feedback says you are.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

Anywho, lynch me idc but you're mafia/consign/godfather/whatever scum name you wanna be called. So we know you're scum.

-vote Auwt

Originally Posted by Mesk514

Your charts mean absolutely jack shit given they come from scum 😂😂😂 i poked auwt several times

Originally Posted by Mesk514

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 😂😂😂😂😂 1V1 ME, that was absolutely false

Originally Posted by Mesk514

MattZed is already widely scum read, he can be lynched without a check. FENCE SITTING.... it's all about fence sitting. I always shoot/check the fence sitters.

-unvote

This is not a scum derp: there's obvious intent to keep pushing to get a reaction even despite the fact green sheriffs don't get exact role was outed earlier. I'm not lynching Mesk the Eternal Cu--I mean Citizen, at least not now. This looks like a genuine reaction test to me. I guess it could be a complicated way to get townpoints as scum, but that seems unlikely and risky to me, so I'd even say Mesk is now a townread of mine.

[QUOTE=Renegade;910804]I never fence sat on the following: DM worldbuilding goofiness and lame cit claim, mesk lame cit claim. I was one of the main people lamenting the dumb cit claims d1, so if she's purp I can see how I'm a threat to her. And so the plan was concocted.

[COLOR="#008080"]What is amazing and I see it all the time on this site is when someone claims to reaction test you, there is no way you can have a reaction that makes them think you aren't scummy. React too passively? Scum. React too aggressively? Scum. Get frustrated when someone fakes a claim on you and tries to get you lynched? Scum.[/COLOR]

Goal post is always moved to suit the agenda of the fake claimer.[/QUOTE]

No offense, but I doubt anyone saw you as a "threat": you haven't been very threatening towards anyone this game. I'd more call you an easy mislynch in a scum!Mesk world.

[COLOR="#008080"]It's very possible that she's just scum who made a mistake, though. I'm currently reading to see if what she said fits with a gambit or with a scum derp.[/COLOR]

Originally Posted by Renegade

I never fence sat on the following: DM worldbuilding goofiness and lame cit claim, mesk lame cit claim. I was one of the main people lamenting the dumb cit claims d1, so if she's purp I can see how I'm a threat to her. And so the plan was concocted.

What is amazing and I see it all the time on this site is when someone claims to reaction test you, there is no way you can have a reaction that makes them think you aren't scummy. React too passively? Scum. React too aggressively? Scum. Get frustrated when someone fakes a claim on you and tries to get you lynched? Scum.

Goal post is always moved to suit the agenda of the fake claimer.

No offense, but I doubt anyone saw you as a "threat": you haven't been very threatening towards anyone this game. I'd more call you an easy mislynch in a scum!Mesk world.

It's very possible that she's just scum who made a mistake, though. I'm currently reading to see if what she said fits with a gambit or with a scum derp.

[QUOTE=MartinGG99;910747]Also I think Yzb is never illuminati here.

Unless he was concerned about me and put quite a bit of effort to convince me otherwise, but I'm going to occams razor that and say he's non-illuminati. I don't believe that he thinks of mass fake/real "peeks" (whatchamacallits) IN ADDITION to being cautious about me being executioner in an extreme unlikelyhood.

Also the fact that Auwt put Yzb as a top town-read helps that matter.[/QUOTE]

+++++ very much agreed

Originally Posted by MartinGG99

Also I think Yzb is never illuminati here.

Unless he was concerned about me and put quite a bit of effort to convince me otherwise, but I'm going to occams razor that and say he's non-illuminati. I don't believe that he thinks of mass fake/real "peeks" (whatchamacallits) IN ADDITION to being cautious about me being executioner in an extreme unlikelyhood.

Also the fact that Auwt put Yzb as a top town-read helps that matter.

+++++ very much agreed

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910799]Sure, boggled fake claim, but your reaction speaks for itself.[/QUOTE]

Not to inferior brains like mine :(

Originally Posted by Mesk514

Sure, boggled fake claim, but your reaction speaks for itself.

Not to inferior brains like mine

[QUOTE=Renegade;910797]>fence sits
>ren did nothn but fence sit he scum

This is the dumb vet meta bullshite I've been talking about. You all have wildly different standards based one who you have played with and who has been on the site longer. Meh-sk.[/QUOTE]

She has a point: you haven't given clear and commited-to reads this game, and that's scummy (it's actually a pretty good point you're making mesk lol). I simply fail to see her point about your reaction.

Originally Posted by Renegade

>fence sits
>ren did nothn but fence sit he scum

This is the dumb vet meta bullshite I've been talking about. You all have wildly different standards based one who you have played with and who has been on the site longer. Meh-sk.

She has a point: you haven't given clear and commited-to reads this game, and that's scummy (it's actually a pretty good point you're making mesk lol). I simply fail to see her point about your reaction.

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910791]I must confess, I am actually a citizen, but I love the fact that Renegade basically conceded and had MattZed have to ping him to vote me. PogChamp

lynch me for it, I don't care. But based on his reaction, Renegade and probably MattZed are scum. Not only that, but the fact that they completely disregarded the Illuminati feedback says it all[/QUOTE]

Okay, assuming I buy you're making a gambit: what in Renegade's reaction makes you think he's scum?

Originally Posted by Mesk514

I must confess, I am actually a citizen, but I love the fact that Renegade basically conceded and had MattZed have to ping him to vote me.

lynch me for it, I don't care. But based on his reaction, Renegade and probably MattZed are scum. Not only that, but the fact that they completely disregarded the Illuminati feedback says it all

Okay, assuming I buy you're making a gambit: what in Renegade's reaction makes you think he's scum?

[QUOTE=Renegade;910719][COLOR="#008080"]Purp sher and consig get exact roles[/COLOR], not a green sher. So why would she claim I was an exact role of consig? Because I'm being framed and maf/illuminato is making a move.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="#008080"]LOL THAT'S TRUE[/COLOR]

Yea I think "off with her head" is the best course of action possible, and this find changes things a bit: if she actually flips Sheriff, then we probably have Illuminati, which means that we do NOT lynch Renegade (at least not yet, consider WIFOM later) and lynch Auwt instead.

Originally Posted by Renegade

Purp sher and consig get exact roles, not a green sher. So why would she claim I was an exact role of consig? Because I'm being framed and maf/illuminato is making a move.

LOL THAT'S TRUE

Yea I think "off with her head" is the best course of action possible, and this find changes things a bit: if she actually flips Sheriff, then we probably have Illuminati, which means that we do NOT lynch Renegade (at least not yet, consider WIFOM later) and lynch Auwt instead.

DON'T GO FURTHER ON THE MESK TRAIN YET, THIS IS L-2

DON'T GO FURTHER ON THE MESK TRAIN YET, THIS IS L-2

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910704]BTW, sheriff here, Renegade is the consig[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=yzb25;910707]how do you know he's consig specifically[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910710]Godfather, consig, same shit[/QUOTE]
??? lol
[vote]Mesk514[/vote]
If Mesk flips Sheriff, we look into Renegade heavily tomorrow. I think that's simple enough.
[QUOTE=yzb25;910713]what do you propose we do. Should we lynch him.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Mesk514;910715]Illuminati first if martins feedback is correct, I think. But at least we know one scum[/QUOTE]

I mean, Martin's feedback is "correct", but it means virtually nothing about the presence (or lack) of Illuminati.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

BTW, sheriff here, Renegade is the consig

Originally Posted by yzb25

how do you know he's consig specifically

Originally Posted by Mesk514

Godfather, consig, same shit

??? lol

-vote Mesk514

If Mesk flips Sheriff, we look into Renegade heavily tomorrow. I think that's simple enough.

Originally Posted by yzb25

what do you propose we do. Should we lynch him.

Originally Posted by Mesk514

Illuminati first if martins feedback is correct, I think. But at least we know one scum

I mean, Martin's feedback is "correct", but it means virtually nothing about the presence (or lack) of Illuminati.

[QUOTE=MattZed;910783]I really don't see how in the world you're distinguishing between the "too scummy to be scum" camp and "actually scum." Why was Mesk missing the context between us yesterday scummy but, say, DM asking us questions *we had already answered* wasn't?[/QUOTE]

Missing context without giving quotes is relatively easy to get away with to convince people to vote someone; it can have scum intent as an origin, and that actually happens rather often with actively scumpainting scums. On the other hand, making completely ridiculous reasonings is absolutely not; it does the opposite. Scum intent behind that is nearly impossible if the player isn't a troll or a very lost newbie.

Originally Posted by MattZed

I really don't see how in the world you're distinguishing between the "too scummy to be scum" camp and "actually scum." Why was Mesk missing the context between us yesterday scummy but, say, DM asking us questions *we had already answered* wasn't?

Missing context without giving quotes is relatively easy to get away with to convince people to vote someone; it can have scum intent as an origin, and that actually happens rather often with actively scumpainting scums. On the other hand, making completely ridiculous reasonings is absolutely not; it does the opposite. Scum intent behind that is nearly impossible if the player isn't a troll or a very lost newbie.

[QUOTE=Renegade;910782]I mean, I didn't make these for town points. Trying something new cuz I'm looking to solve the game and find scum.[/QUOTE]

Yes, and that's why I didn't accuse you of anything, just said it wasn't very telling.

Originally Posted by Renegade

I mean, I didn't make these for town points. Trying something new cuz I'm looking to solve the game and find scum.

Yes, and that's why I didn't accuse you of anything, just said it wasn't very telling.

[QUOTE=yzb25;910702]okay, well not having a lynch yesterday was garbage. Info was info. My instinct is to blame MM for not joining the Matt train when it was clear Frinckles wasn't going beyond L-2. Irrespective of his towny play, his decision cost us critical information on a slot he admitted had scumtells regardless of his earlier townread.

But this is also an opportunity to hear a less paniced explanation from mattzed of his actions so there is also opportunity and shit here. And I respect MM could easily "no u" what I just said and say I or others should have hopped on Frinckles. Tho, unless hindsight bias is getting in the way, I think it should be clear frinckles was being his usual slippery meta and there was nothing especially scummy about him.[/QUOTE]

It actually wasn't a decision to leave it there. My connection died in the middle of my writing of a reply to my reasons to scumread Frinckles, iirc. But either way, I wouldn't have lynched Mattzed yesterday, so I guess your point still stands.

and yes, I very much "no u" you there lol, and I'd even add that Mesk was another of my choices, which Auwt had showed support to, and which has virtually no reason to be townread afaik, unless people townread the "idgaf" attitude she had early on.
Note that I actually hard townread you for your general attitude and for the derp you made when misinterpreting one of my posts, so I'm not calling you scum, just saying I'm not either :p

Originally Posted by yzb25

okay, well not having a lynch yesterday was garbage. Info was info. My instinct is to blame MM for not joining the Matt train when it was clear Frinckles wasn't going beyond L-2. Irrespective of his towny play, his decision cost us critical information on a slot he admitted had scumtells regardless of his earlier townread.

But this is also an opportunity to hear a less paniced explanation from mattzed of his actions so there is also opportunity and shit here. And I respect MM could easily "no u" what I just said and say I or others should have hopped on Frinckles. Tho, unless hindsight bias is getting in the way, I think it should be clear frinckles was being his usual slippery meta and there was nothing especially scummy about him.

It actually wasn't a decision to leave it there. My connection died in the middle of my writing of a reply to my reasons to scumread Frinckles, iirc. But either way, I wouldn't have lynched Mattzed yesterday, so I guess your point still stands.

and yes, I very much "no u" you there lol, and I'd even add that Mesk was another of my choices, which Auwt had showed support to, and which has virtually no reason to be townread afaik, unless people townread the "idgaf" attitude she had early on.
Note that I actually hard townread you for your general attitude and for the derp you made when misinterpreting one of my posts, so I'm not calling you scum, just saying I'm not either

[QUOTE=Renegade;910700][SPOILER=POSTS WITH A TON OF CHARTS?!!]This was my lw.


[url]https://imgur.com/a/2TtvlIH[/url]

Here is my network analysis of d1 activity. There are 4 charts.

I reread the whole day and every time I saw a positive/neutral/negative interaction or mentioning of one player to another, or a vote, I counted it. Sometimes an interaction is a single post, sometimes single posts count for multiple interactions.

For example, post X could have a ren to mm, frinckles, martingg99 interaction generated from it. These interactions are from my perspective and how I interpreted them. I removed fluff, satire, and non-game related interactions.

The darker the color of the arrow, the more interactions that took place. The arrow starts at a source node, and points to target nodes. So in an example above, there would be three arrows starting at ren and pointing to frinckles, mm, and martingg99.

I would like to spend some time with you all and see what we can draw from these networks.

The first chart we will introduce is the "positive interaction/ agreement chart". These occur when it appears to me that two players are in agreement or are otherwise having a positive game related interaction with each other.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/k2OYrKu.png[/img]

Here you can see, MM and MZ had the strongest positive interactions. What you end up finding though is a few players on the outside. For example, Mesk, Martin, and Frinckles.

The next chart introduced in the neutral interaction chart. These often occur when one player asks another player a question, or responds with an answer.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/vhmSRIe.png[/img]

Here you can see the most acive players were MM, DM, MZ, and who they were interacting with.

This chart is the fun chart, all of the negative interactions, scumreads, scumleans, whatever you want.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/pMfm2o8.png[/img]

Clearly, there is tension between Mesk and MM, and then a nexus of conflict between DM/SB and Renegade, Marshmallow, and MZ.

Many others have sat on the sidelines here.

Finally is the vote chart. This is how many unique times a person voted for someone else:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CNTxSI6.png[/img]


Shoutout to [MENTION=45327]bakermir[/MENTION] and [MENTION=10617]Helz[/MENTION] who also like charts.[/SPOILER][/QUOTE]

Uhuhuh, okay? This only shows the amount of posts, so it's not very useful imo. Mafia isn't about sheer numbers, it's much more about qualitative assessments. In those charts, I could say "I don't like your face" 10 times and I'd come up as being highly anti-Renegade even though it's far less damning than 3 posts containing elaborated logical cases against you.
A+ for effort though lol. NAI

Originally Posted by Renegade

Spoiler : POSTS WITH A TON OF CHARTS?!! :

This was my lw.


https://imgur.com/a/2TtvlIH

Here is my network analysis of d1 activity. There are 4 charts.

I reread the whole day and every time I saw a positive/neutral/negative interaction or mentioning of one player to another, or a vote, I counted it. Sometimes an interaction is a single post, sometimes single posts count for multiple interactions.

For example, post X could have a ren to mm, frinckles, martingg99 interaction generated from it. These interactions are from my perspective and how I interpreted them. I removed fluff, satire, and non-game related interactions.

The darker the color of the arrow, the more interactions that took place. The arrow starts at a source node, and points to target nodes. So in an example above, there would be three arrows starting at ren and pointing to frinckles, mm, and martingg99.

I would like to spend some time with you all and see what we can draw from these networks.

The first chart we will introduce is the "positive interaction/ agreement chart". These occur when it appears to me that two players are in agreement or are otherwise having a positive game related interaction with each other.



Here you can see, MM and MZ had the strongest positive interactions. What you end up finding though is a few players on the outside. For example, Mesk, Martin, and Frinckles.

The next chart introduced in the neutral interaction chart. These often occur when one player asks another player a question, or responds with an answer.



Here you can see the most acive players were MM, DM, MZ, and who they were interacting with.

This chart is the fun chart, all of the negative interactions, scumreads, scumleans, whatever you want.



Clearly, there is tension between Mesk and MM, and then a nexus of conflict between DM/SB and Renegade, Marshmallow, and MZ.

Many others have sat on the sidelines here.

Finally is the vote chart. This is how many unique times a person voted for someone else:




Shoutout to @bakermir and @Helz who also like charts.

Uhuhuh, okay? This only shows the amount of posts, so it's not very useful imo. Mafia isn't about sheer numbers, it's much more about qualitative assessments. In those charts, I could say "I don't like your face" 10 times and I'd come up as being highly anti-Renegade even though it's far less damning than 3 posts containing elaborated logical cases against you.
A+ for effort though lol. NAI

[QUOTE=MattZed;910770][MENTION=29377]Marshmallow Marshall[/MENTION] , to give a fuller answer to "but Matt, why the 180 on SB yesterday???": It's because I stopped thinking about how is *SB* playing and started thinking about how the *slot* is playing. I cannot remotely fathom how you thought DM was playing too poorly to be scum. I'm much more on team "Occam's Razor."[/QUOTE]

To address the topic of your post more exactly, it felt like something was missing in the progression, but I guess explainations [I]now[/I] can't repair that. It's not impossible you're telling the truth, but it's impossible for me to completely erase what happened there, because you very well could be making things up right now to cover your mistake up assuming scum!Mattzed.

Originally Posted by MattZed

@Marshmallow Marshall , to give a fuller answer to "but Matt, why the 180 on SB yesterday???": It's because I stopped thinking about how is *SB* playing and started thinking about how the *slot* is playing. I cannot remotely fathom how you thought DM was playing too poorly to be scum. I'm much more on team "Occam's Razor."

To address the topic of your post more exactly, it felt like something was missing in the progression, but I guess explainations now can't repair that. It's not impossible you're telling the truth, but it's impossible for me to completely erase what happened there, because you very well could be making things up right now to cover your mistake up assuming scum!Mattzed.

[QUOTE=MattZed;910770][MENTION=29377]Marshmallow Marshall[/MENTION] , to give a fuller answer to "but Matt, why the 180 on SB yesterday???": It's because I stopped thinking about how is *SB* playing and started thinking about how the *slot* is playing. I cannot remotely fathom how you thought DM was playing too poorly to be scum. I'm much more on team "Occam's Razor."[/QUOTE]

Well, Team Occam's Razor tends to mislynch LHF townies all the time, whereas Team Intent Behind Actions tends to preserve them and sometimes (but quite rarely) give free passes to scum due to misreading intent.

~~~~~~~~~~

[SPOILER=My N1 thoughts that I put in my last will]I want to townread Mattzed, I really do, because he has done a lot of actually pro-town work; we wouldn't have that much info if it hadn't been of him, and he could very well have participated in the shitpost time and delayed information gathering as much as possible. I'm just not sure it's right because of the SB thing. It's not unbelievable that he felt bad about lynching Stealth at first, but it's quite unlikely: he showed rather clear intent to change his read in his very mind (or at least in what he claimed to be his very mind) when decided not to push Stealth at first. Could be a half-conscious bias in Stealth's favor, though, so nothing is set in stone about him. Honestly, I think Mattzed might be a non-Illuminati Mafia trying to figure out if there are Illuminati or not, and that is why he was truly pro-town early on. Anyway, MattZed is a minefield when it comes to reading him, so I can't have a final read on him; hopefully this helps.
I'm pretty sure SB is town due to his slot's history and due to his behavior when he replaced in, saying what his slot did was understable (since he has the information of being town himself).
Auwt's reasonings are relatable, and I tend to believe he's town because of how natural his progression seemed.
Frinckles is scummy: where are his reasonings? His focus was entirely on Martin until I called him out on it, point at which he started scumreading me even though he claims to have a townlean on me if he disregards my meta of always being hard to read for him...[/SPOILER]

I saw Martin claimed to have an Illuminati check on Auwt. Well uh, either my read on him is shit or we simply don't have illuminati. Both are possible, and I'll have to check that out.
The Frinckles kill actually makes me think I may have been right about Mattzed with my conspiracy theory of him being mafia trying to get rid of potential illuminati XD. Of course there's no evidence of that, but I'm slowly gaining confidence in that theory.

Originally Posted by MattZed

@Marshmallow Marshall , to give a fuller answer to "but Matt, why the 180 on SB yesterday???": It's because I stopped thinking about how is *SB* playing and started thinking about how the *slot* is playing. I cannot remotely fathom how you thought DM was playing too poorly to be scum. I'm much more on team "Occam's Razor."

Well, Team Occam's Razor tends to mislynch LHF townies all the time, whereas Team Intent Behind Actions tends to preserve them and sometimes (but quite rarely) give free passes to scum due to misreading intent.

~~~~~~~~~~

Spoiler : My N1 thoughts that I put in my last will :

I want to townread Mattzed, I really do, because he has done a lot of actually pro-town work; we wouldn't have that much info if it hadn't been of him, and he could very well have participated in the shitpost time and delayed information gathering as much as possible. I'm just not sure it's right because of the SB thing. It's not unbelievable that he felt bad about lynching Stealth at first, but it's quite unlikely: he showed rather clear intent to change his read in his very mind (or at least in what he claimed to be his very mind) when decided not to push Stealth at first. Could be a half-conscious bias in Stealth's favor, though, so nothing is set in stone about him. Honestly, I think Mattzed might be a non-Illuminati Mafia trying to figure out if there are Illuminati or not, and that is why he was truly pro-town early on. Anyway, MattZed is a minefield when it comes to reading him, so I can't have a final read on him; hopefully this helps.
I'm pretty sure SB is town due to his slot's history and due to his behavior when he replaced in, saying what his slot did was understable (since he has the information of being town himself).
Auwt's reasonings are relatable, and I tend to believe he's town because of how natural his progression seemed.
Frinckles is scummy: where are his reasonings? His focus was entirely on Martin until I called him out on it, point at which he started scumreading me even though he claims to have a townlean on me if he disregards my meta of always being hard to read for him...

I saw Martin claimed to have an Illuminati check on Auwt. Well uh, either my read on him is shit or we simply don't have illuminati. Both are possible, and I'll have to check that out.
The Frinckles kill actually makes me think I may have been right about Mattzed with my conspiracy theory of him being mafia trying to get rid of potential illuminati XD. Of course there's no evidence of that, but I'm slowly gaining confidence in that theory.

[QUOTE=yzb25;910696]imagine being useless for an entire day because your playstyle revolves around avoiding the nightkill then getting nightkilled anyway

oh how the great have fallen ^^[/QUOTE]

LOL

I'm pretty sure the mafia killed Frinckles thinking he was Illuminati, which I absolutely support.
But uh, why doesn't have a role flip? (Sorry if that was already answered btw)

Originally Posted by yzb25

imagine being useless for an entire day because your playstyle revolves around avoiding the nightkill then getting nightkilled anyway

oh how the great have fallen ^^

LOL

I'm pretty sure the mafia killed Frinckles thinking he was Illuminati, which I absolutely support.
But uh, why doesn't have a role flip? (Sorry if that was already answered btw)

[QUOTE=MattZed;910644]On my phone. At this point, I can get behind a Mesk or Frinckles yeet if y’all REALLY think SB is non-Illuminati town.

For the pings on “why did you switch from giving SB a pass to voting for him?” Two reasons: [COLOR="#008080"]1. I was hoping we’d have enough pressure to trial one of Mesk/Frinckles/Auwt/yzb, but that didnt happen. [/COLOR][COLOR="#FF0000"]2. I realized the math ONLY supports a no-yeet if I think there’s an Illuminati but the top suspects aren’t in it.[/COLOR][/QUOTE]

[COLOR="#008080"]Wait a minute. Are you shopping for lynches [I]again?[/I][/COLOR] ("Again" as in "like in Eternia")

[COLOR="#FF0000"]If there are Illuminati, the kill is pretty unstable, since the illuminati mafioso needs to be subtle in his control of the kill to avoid getting killed by the other mafioso. How did you calculate the odds in these conditions?[/COLOR]

Originally Posted by MattZed

On my phone. At this point, I can get behind a Mesk or Frinckles yeet if y’all REALLY think SB is non-Illuminati town.

For the pings on “why did you switch from giving SB a pass to voting for him?” Two reasons: 1. I was hoping we’d have enough pressure to trial one of Mesk/Frinckles/Auwt/yzb, but that didnt happen. 2. I realized the math ONLY supports a no-yeet if I think there’s an Illuminati but the top suspects aren’t in it.

Wait a minute. Are you shopping for lynches again? ("Again" as in "like in Eternia")

If there are Illuminati, the kill is pretty unstable, since the illuminati mafioso needs to be subtle in his control of the kill to avoid getting killed by the other mafioso. How did you calculate the odds in these conditions?

[QUOTE=yzb25;910641]Frinckles has a nominal townread solely for the feels I got from him on page 13. It is probably the flakiest of all my townreads rn.

Renegade has been giving me the heebie jeebies all game. I did not share your view that the way he voted DM looked towny. It looked like rationalization rather than stream of consciousness. But I concede trying to glean an alignment from his dearth of posts is kind of like taking a rorschach test.[/QUOTE]

Okay, well I didn't get that lol. The only thing that could maybe give me pause about Frinckles is... a potential derpclear about him asking about people knowing if they're illuminati or not. That's how far the towny elements go for him in my mind.

I won't say Renegade is a hard townread of mine, but I'd at least keep him around today. There's not enough info on him to have a hard read on him, and there's definetly not enough scumminess to want to lynch him imo.

Originally Posted by yzb25

Frinckles has a nominal townread solely for the feels I got from him on page 13. It is probably the flakiest of all my townreads rn.

Renegade has been giving me the heebie jeebies all game. I did not share your view that the way he voted DM looked towny. It looked like rationalization rather than stream of consciousness. But I concede trying to glean an alignment from his dearth of posts is kind of like taking a rorschach test.

Okay, well I didn't get that lol. The only thing that could maybe give me pause about Frinckles is... a potential derpclear about him asking about people knowing if they're illuminati or not. That's how far the towny elements go for him in my mind.

I won't say Renegade is a hard townread of mine, but I'd at least keep him around today. There's not enough info on him to have a hard read on him, and there's definetly not enough scumminess to want to lynch him imo.

[QUOTE=yzb25;910640]It's important to remember you were p much always on the fence on DM, giving "benefit of the doubt". SB's post was just what tipped you over the edge. Matt's position was very different. He had made an extensive case on DM by this point and repeatedly rallied / appealed to players to vote him or commit to defending him.

There is a broken element of the progression, but he gave two very long posts which were intended to fill in that progression. It's not like you're reading someone who suddenly dropped a different read/vote while being busy. He has provided the rationalization, it's just insufficient.[/QUOTE]

Hmm. I guess there's indeed not much more to add to his post; not sure what he could answer that would make sense, when I think about it.

Ugh, it just feels terrible to D1 lynch Mattzed after his early play without waiting for him to explain himself lol. Maybe I'm just being paranoid of lynching townies when there's a clear scumtell.

I still want to wait as much as possible, just in case. But if he doesn't come back and we don't get a Frinckles or Mesk lynch, I'll get on board for a Mattzed lynch, I guess.

Originally Posted by yzb25

It's important to remember you were p much always on the fence on DM, giving "benefit of the doubt". SB's post was just what tipped you over the edge. Matt's position was very different. He had made an extensive case on DM by this point and repeatedly rallied / appealed to players to vote him or commit to defending him.

There is a broken element of the progression, but he gave two very long posts which were intended to fill in that progression. It's not like you're reading someone who suddenly dropped a different read/vote while being busy. He has provided the rationalization, it's just insufficient.

Hmm. I guess there's indeed not much more to add to his post; not sure what he could answer that would make sense, when I think about it.

Ugh, it just feels terrible to D1 lynch Mattzed after his early play without waiting for him to explain himself lol. Maybe I'm just being paranoid of lynching townies when there's a clear scumtell.

I still want to wait as much as possible, just in case. But if he doesn't come back and we don't get a Frinckles or Mesk lynch, I'll get on board for a Mattzed lynch, I guess.

[QUOTE=yzb25;910638]I feel like you put too much stock in his early day 1 posts, which were just so-and-so run-of-the-mill reactions and standard opening stuff, imo. His most sincere moment was without a doubt imo when he was in setup designer mode talking to martin, and you can see the tonal shift.

[COLOR="#008080"]Many of his early reads (and later reads, frankly) leaned towards hitting players for play that was incorrect rather than particularly scummy.[/COLOR] I feel like my post 611 gives a good sense of what I mean, even if matt actually posted that later.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="#008080"]That was definetly the case about his DM read, and it's why we disagreed on that point.[/COLOR] I'd say that goes more into the "common mistakes in Mafia" column than into the "scumpainting" one, though.

You may be right about early D1, but he still actually helped things to move forward. If he hadn't done that, we would still be swimming in shitposts and movie references right now. Plus, I'm not giving him many townpoints for it. I'm just not giving him many scumpoints for his SB stuff [I]yet[/I], because he has yet to explain himself.

Originally Posted by yzb25

I feel like you put too much stock in his early day 1 posts, which were just so-and-so run-of-the-mill reactions and standard opening stuff, imo. His most sincere moment was without a doubt imo when he was in setup designer mode talking to martin, and you can see the tonal shift.

Many of his early reads (and later reads, frankly) leaned towards hitting players for play that was incorrect rather than particularly scummy. I feel like my post 611 gives a good sense of what I mean, even if matt actually posted that later.

That was definetly the case about his DM read, and it's why we disagreed on that point. I'd say that goes more into the "common mistakes in Mafia" column than into the "scumpainting" one, though.

You may be right about early D1, but he still actually helped things to move forward. If he hadn't done that, we would still be swimming in shitposts and movie references right now. Plus, I'm not giving him many townpoints for it. I'm just not giving him many scumpoints for his SB stuff yet, because he has yet to explain himself.

On another topic:[QUOTE=yzb25;910570]to be clear that doesn't overrule the rest of mm's play. His tone is v towny. I don't know the power of his scumplay, but he is still vaguely a townread. My lynch order probably goes like this

9. yzb
8. martin
7. sb
7. mesk
5. frinckles
4. mm
3. auwt
2. renegade
1. matt[/QUOTE]

Why do you consider Frinckles as towny?
Why do you want to lynch Renegade?

On another topic:

Originally Posted by yzb25

to be clear that doesn't overrule the rest of mm's play. His tone is v towny. I don't know the power of his scumplay, but he is still vaguely a townread. My lynch order probably goes like this

9. yzb
8. martin
7. sb
7. mesk
5. frinckles
4. mm
3. auwt
2. renegade
1. matt

Why do you consider Frinckles as towny?
Why do you want to lynch Renegade?

[QUOTE=yzb25;910635]Imo, the scummy part of what MZ did isn't even switching back to the vote, it was removing the vote in the first place. To be totally frank, a few good posts from a replace should never wipe a scumread if you hold it as firmly as matt seemed to. I would have expected some kind of apologetic "okay you sound towny but I'm not gonna ditch this read I spent hours building". He set himself up for his own flipflop and rationalization later, and it looks really opportunistic in light of how fervently he scumpainted some of DM's other stuff. It looks like he took the vote off when he saw a stronger player had switched into the slot, and basically realized it was still worth pushing the mislynch later on.[/QUOTE]

I'd say the weird part is the [I]incoherence[/I], not either of the actions. I can understand his point of view on DM, and I share his initial point of view on SB (i.e. that SB is really playing like a townie who just replaced in a hot slot). What doesn't make sense is that he completely wiped the initial SB read to end up voting him because of DM's play, not that he read SB as towny early on; he had kept a healthy level of doubt and wanted Martin to check SB, which was rather coherent and believable imo.
In other words, it's like he forgot he had changed his mind, which makes no sense at all; there's a broken element in his progression. That's what requires answers.

Originally Posted by yzb25

Imo, the scummy part of what MZ did isn't even switching back to the vote, it was removing the vote in the first place. To be totally frank, a few good posts from a replace should never wipe a scumread if you hold it as firmly as matt seemed to. I would have expected some kind of apologetic "okay you sound towny but I'm not gonna ditch this read I spent hours building". He set himself up for his own flipflop and rationalization later, and it looks really opportunistic in light of how fervently he scumpainted some of DM's other stuff. It looks like he took the vote off when he saw a stronger player had switched into the slot, and basically realized it was still worth pushing the mislynch later on.

I'd say the weird part is the incoherence, not either of the actions. I can understand his point of view on DM, and I share his initial point of view on SB (i.e. that SB is really playing like a townie who just replaced in a hot slot). What doesn't make sense is that he completely wiped the initial SB read to end up voting him because of DM's play, not that he read SB as towny early on; he had kept a healthy level of doubt and wanted Martin to check SB, which was rather coherent and believable imo.
In other words, it's like he forgot he had changed his mind, which makes no sense at all; there's a broken element in his progression. That's what requires answers.

[QUOTE=yzb25;910630]you might be talking about this:

Resolved not to vote stealth yesterday then today but changed his mind partway through today. Then you posted after that and didn't seem perturbed.[/QUOTE]

I guess I skimmed over a part of the thread and it happened to be the important one. But for the record, although I'm [I]perturbed[/I], it's not enough to make me say "OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!!!". It simply means there are questions to be asked. Once they're answered, we can scream "off with his head" as much as you want if the answers are really scummy, but lynching him right now without even considering his protownness from early D1 is a bit of an overreaction imo. And so is lynching me for not having read that part or for not wanting to overreact, lol (mostly looking at Frinckles right now).

Originally Posted by yzb25

you might be talking about this:

Resolved not to vote stealth yesterday then today but changed his mind partway through today. Then you posted after that and didn't seem perturbed.

I guess I skimmed over a part of the thread and it happened to be the important one. But for the record, although I'm perturbed, it's not enough to make me say "OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!!!". It simply means there are questions to be asked. Once they're answered, we can scream "off with his head" as much as you want if the answers are really scummy, but lynching him right now without even considering his protownness from early D1 is a bit of an overreaction imo. And so is lynching me for not having read that part or for not wanting to overreact, lol (mostly looking at Frinckles right now).

[QUOTE=Frinckles;910621]Everytime i scumread mm he is town and vis versa so I'm a horrible litmus for his day 1s. I would townlean him slightly here but that instantly drops him into a scum pool for me. Eh[/QUOTE]

If your argument to want to lynch me is "I townread him so he must be scum" and that you're actively pushing my lynch over any other lynches, you're just scum lol. I don't even do that with Blinkskater, come on. You can't honestly say
[QUOTE=Frinckles;910612]I actually think MM might be the better lynch of the two.[/QUOTE]

if you have a townlean on me as town, that's utterly incoherent and ungenuine.

Originally Posted by Frinckles

Everytime i scumread mm he is town and vis versa so I'm a horrible litmus for his day 1s. I would townlean him slightly here but that instantly drops him into a scum pool for me. Eh

If your argument to want to lynch me is "I townread him so he must be scum" and that you're actively pushing my lynch over any other lynches, you're just scum lol. I don't even do that with Blinkskater, come on. You can't honestly say

Originally Posted by Frinckles

I actually think MM might be the better lynch of the two.

if you have a townlean on me as town, that's utterly incoherent and ungenuine.

[QUOTE=Frinckles;910629]Are you doing your jumpy read thing or have you caught up? Nobody is turboing you.[/QUOTE]

Jumpy read thing + getting to critical matters quickly because lynch is majority and people tend to jump on the hammer early on when it's majority only.

Originally Posted by Frinckles

Are you doing your jumpy read thing or have you caught up? Nobody is turboing you.

Jumpy read thing + getting to critical matters quickly because lynch is majority and people tend to jump on the hammer early on when it's majority only.