DK, elaborate on you “shading me for info”.
What exactly did you want to gain from calling the banana’s post fake?
Not that Kuti exactly helped themselves or was SUPER towny, but they weren't scummy and my gut was RIGHT
and you all hated me for saying that, silly geese lol
(and dead chat hated me for saying that too apparently, but I SHALL NOT REFRAIN! FREEEEEEDOM)
Apart from this. I was sent, presumably by PoD, to chat with the dead last night. I can confirm that both posts from the grave are from Banana and Martin, respectively; they were not modified at all as far as I could tell. That means Ultra is entirely confirmed town, which is... something, I guess. Even the bloody dead hate me (but yes banana, I know you don't hate me, you just want me dead nonetheless because you don't believe me ). So sad.
The only other medium activity in dead chat was DM, who has been there since N1. Which leads me to a question that might not be so obvious when just playing in the thread, but that becomes kinda striking when you join the dead chat: how come DM is the only medium who can just send himself in there all the time AND the only one who can publish anything? Besides, it's not like his role (ghost of christmas to be or w/e, he's the one of the future, asked him) justifies that flavor-wise. That sounds like how I'd design a scum medium among 2 town mediums.
~~
that's pretty goofy if you ask me
Also, about the three Kuti posts you're asking about, even though I am pretty sure you're just scum lol, I'll still share (and who knows, perhaps you'll convince me otherwise...):
Look at post #1. "I'm not a wolf" - not literally a wolf disappearing and lolcatting away, which was basically the only potentially valid-looking theory to say Kuti was scum. "I accept myself being flipped for game forwarding reasons" - considering how the day went, this was kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it also was understandable from a town PoV. "Don't have time or energy to play so yeet anyway. Bye" - apathy, honestly I just gut like the tone but I cannot ask you to agree with me on gut so I won't.
Post #2: matches with what you said yourself about Kuti, Wisp. More importantly, "only agreed to play for Wisp and Lumi" really seemed sincere, especially considering the very carefree/not so serious style they adopted this game generally speaking (the only exception to this was the big WAAAAH for favorite holidays).
Post #3: honestly nothing much to say about this, it tonally fits with the rest but that's pretty much it.
In theory, I know either DM is scum or Ikarus is (or both, but that would be mindblowing and weird lol). However, that leads me to my next point, which I've thought upon and discussed with Martin last night.
If Ikarus is scum, I think we have to just accept the loss here.
Why? Because we're never going to flip Ikarus before we flip both DM and myself: both of us are too heavily suspected, whereas Ikarus is honestly quite towny. Apart from that, the caroler flip from Debbie seems to indicate Ikarus really got a carol on N1, since noone else claimed to have received one. So here, I think I'm just going to-vote Dark Magician
If you're scum, Ikarus, then gg wp, and you deserve the game much more than the town lol.
As for who's teamed with DM, I already talked about it quite a lot, and even pinged you in a post telling you to go look at my world, @Stellaria ... but anyway, I intend to detail on this further today. To sum up, it's DM/Wisp/Arrow, and the results of last night strengthened my faith in this. See my post with a spoiler not long before EoD2 for details in the meantime.
Explain the Wisp townread to me, please, @ikarusdk . I do not see it. I heavily townread Stellaria based on my interaction with them on D2 (and the fact this interaction fits with their general character, expressed throughout the game), though.
Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.
Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :
@ikarusdk there we go
Also I just saw this:
Ultra is confirmed town by Martin's ability. No need to waste time on this, he's a living flipped town.
Let's burn some witches shall we?
This is gonna generate some heat but I'm 100% certain I am right.
Chapter 1. Before we get down to WHY, let's review the SoD2 fmpov - a town.
The night before I received a carol containing DM/MM/Kutiplz. If you look back on SoD, I was present at the start (as you could see from my opening about how I'm going to uphold Banana's legacy), but was intentionally withholding talking about absolutely anything until all players in the carol. Perhaps it is more accurate that I wanted DM and MM to start talking because I didn't really care about Kuti slot, I was going to vote them anyway based on my explanation (https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post990547), post 1793. I was TRing MM more or less while DM was floating between neutral to scumlean based on Day 1.
Before DM and MM started talking, I was exploring into an alternate option of Kuti-Arrow being a team following Arrow's opening, but quickly put this idea aside because I wanted to solve DM/MM slot (for if Kuti flips town despite, or I failed to lynch Kuti). So I wanted till both DM and MM started talking, and I found it weird how DM's supposed chat (which I don't really doubt atm) was protecting PoD, who I was starting to sus a little bit, because of our obviously different world view and his reasons for SoD2 push on Stellaria (they did not like how stellaria forcused so much on hydra thing) was bleak to me. It occurred to me if DM/PoD were W/W, it could've been a way to protect them both from a lynch, and if they were W/T, DM could get towncred from PoD. But now, as seeing that Martins' message did not CC about this, it does not matter. I'm pointing it out this is why I chose DM to see if I can pry some info.
On top of this, I didn't believe that all three mediums could be town so I started to explore the fact that there could be mafia between DM and PoD slot.
It did not help that PoD was so willing to accuse people for voting banana because banana basically slipped a claim. There had been some back and forth about this between Stellaria/PoD/myself and at some point I decided that PoD does not feel town so I'd shade and pressure DM to see how he would react - and that could reveal some more info about DM and PoD - this is what I wanted to achieve + DM takes priority for me because he is in carol.
Now let me remind you, these interactions are what DM's saying I was wolfy
Spoiler : Ikarus-DM SoD2 interaction :
Now, look. I did not assume that DM would be the type to get emotional the first moment someone lays a fos (in fact, because someone else has put DM under poe before), so I was quite surprised I was getting stronger reaction than I expected. The complete flip from townreading me to top scumread based on the intereaction above. Can you guys understand with DM's change of read about me? Because I simply cannot. And what 'wolfy' posts did I make in above interaction? I tried to put myself in T!DM's shoes while I am reviewing the whole thing, and I honestly cannot say I would react the same way even if someone was getting rude.
Also, not only he OMGUS'd me straight away in very passive aggressive tones in his posts replying to my posts, he simply would not drop the fact that I am the wolf even after others chimed in and implied that this is probably TvT. Near this point PoD said this, which made me feel a bit better about him because this was correct.
After a while we started talking about other things.
Chapter 2. SoD 3 and Why DM is the mafia, not MM
Now we have Kuti green and Martin green. Kuti flipping green means there is 100% without a doubt there is at least one mafia in DM/MM.
And these are DM's opening posts. For the sake of clarity and to get to the point, let's forgive DM for assuming I had claimed the role of carol - a mistake probably.
Spoiler : DM's posts SoD2 :
Let's sum up what's happening.
1. in T!DM's mind - MM is 110% wolf. There is no reason to believe otherwise. It is a fact.
2. Yet, in a guaranteed lynch scenario - as most people already suspect MM including the dead people - yet his posts are 90% about how I could be the wolf.
3. Finding this weird, I wanted to be sure about DM being a wolf by toning down my posts while asking a very important question - who he is going to vote. If he says MM contrary to his post history on day 3, then I might be wrong. But if he keeps tagging me along for no other reason than him thinking I'm a wolf from our day 2 interaction, then he is probably a wolf.
Andddddd... this was his response.
He is still bringing me to the 2 players he would vote today when MM is already a guaranteed wolf in T!DM's mind. This is where Wiisp earns a very big towncred from me by asking DM the correct and important questions
He cannot answer this because let me sum up DM's play on SoD3.
1. He cannot lynch MM - because that automatically outs him as wolf
2. ikarus is a convenient target to shade here so DM can offer ikarus as an alternative to MM
3. Continue shading ikarus in almost every post
4. Lynch ikarus who will flip town, and everyone will assume DM was simply wrong
5. NK a town and blame it on MM
6. MM is already an easy taget, lynch MM who will probably flip green.
7. NK a town
8. At this point Achro probably has won, and town does not have the number to win.
-vote Dark Magician
At this point I am willing to die on this hill - DM is the wolf, and MM is town.
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post990135
Here is a link to my post where interaction between DM and I take place - I realised the final version did not contain all the posts from Dark and I - this would be easier to use to follow.
Starting an ISO on Wisp that I'm not sure I'll finish, at least not now
Perhaps that's just tunnel vision on my end, but this looks like a very SvS interaction. It's like DM realized he could say something about his teammate without getting himself or his partner in trouble; it's like they're just toying with eachother lol. Even more importantly, DM did not reply to this last post at all. He straight up ignored it. Now, if DM were actually town, would "ur claim was a meme" satisfy him? Let's say I harbor doubts xD. It really feels like DM wasn't actually worried about Wisp at all, which indicates scum theatre.
When asked to justify progression by Ultra (who is confirmed town).I'm torn between saying the tone feels good and saying it's an easy escape from a difficult question lol. The D1 ISO has a lot of this attitude, and I'm not sure it's natural, but eh. In a vacuum, it's not particularly damning, but probably not towny either.see next quote
Answer to being told by Ultra that the previous post did not actually answer anything. Now I'm striking through what I wrote above, because that turns the carefree attitude into a suspiciously defensive one. Like, the town "I do w/e I want, and fuck you (kindly)" playstyle/attitude does exist in the world of mafia, but it's not matched by this very down-to-earth, not braggy answer. Scummy.
The saga continues xD. This is the kind of post I would have expected directly after the one saying "I do whatever I want". Not right after a serious, defensive, but deflective answer. I don't buy it.
What the heck, Kuti was probably actually on the right track and we just failed to heed it lol. Like, they were absolutely seeing what I am now seeing in the earlier parts of the ISO, and Wisp kept not responding with an actual answer
The following three posts are all in immediate succession; they were posted back to back and appear as such in the thread.
"I'd vote DM just for this post"
"It's DM/Mac"
proceeds to fix the misspelled vote on Mac that was placed without an explanation before, the only explanation being "and I know why I'm doing this" in the reply to Kuti quoted above
Let's see if a DM vote actually ever appeared on D1...
Naked vote with an "explanation" that actually isn't one, replaced 47 posts later by:
.
This is relatively close to EoD. Wisp ended off-wagon with his vote on Kuti. There is no valid progression on DM to explain the switches. Instead, what we have is this:
I've already commented on this being scum theatre-y in a previous post. Like, what gaslighting? And how is DM's claim scummy in a vacuum on D1? And most importantly, how does all of this explain the switch off to Mac, and then to Banana, and finally to Kuti? The progression simply doesn't add up.
End of Day 1.
And that's what happens on D2, where Kuti is pretty obviously getting lynched. "I scumread kuti but actually just vote DM because ?"... like, Wisp KNOWS it won't happen, he ADMITS IT lol. This is a perfect opportunity to park a vote on a scummate without risk. And again, progression? Why just move away from DM and Mac to end up on Banana and then Kuti at EoD1 if you actually think DM is the right call and end up going back to it on D2? It could be fine if there were a visible progression, but there absolutely isn't any.
Side note: where the heck does this come from:
DIDN'T YOU ALMOST WANT TO LYNCH HIM NOT LONG AGO XD
I'm stopping here for now, might be enough tbh. I am convinced. Wisp/DM/Arrow it is
@macdougall @ikarusdk @Ultra @Stellaria
I feel like you should read this
Will read now and compare this with my worldview.
Two back to back wall posts!
But i'd also ping
@Ultra @Stellaria @macdougall @Marshmallow Marshall
Since I am certain
Here is my list - in order of no particular order
Town
MM
Stellaria
Mac
Ultra
Neut
Achro
Scumlean
PoD
Wiisp
Arrow
Scum
DM
fmpov we just lynch pod,arrow,wiisp (i need to consider wisp) in this order, town wins.
This list is made by who are my top townreads - then following process of elimination
Spoiler : As to not clutter the forum :
Well you sold me on Arrow there.
Arrow>Pod/Wiisp - I am unsure I'm sold on Wiisp tbh but will think harder about it tonight. Will get back to you on this one.
Whew, attack of the walls xD. Reading.
D2 ikarus progression makes sense and fits the content of this wall. More importantly, it explains this post (which ikarus mentions):
"I will uphold your legacy" is just a weird post when disregarding the thought process explained at the start of the wall, but makes much more sense when taking the plan into account. As for the possibility of it being a scum plan, it's just tonally weird to say that legacy thing if it's not true lol. Plus:
those two posts are also perfectly explained by the process described
Yeah, I officially accept losing to a world where Ikarus is scum.
As for the rest, I've read it, but honestly don't feel like writing a detailed analysis of it, considering accepting town Ikarus equals confirming scum DM, and considering I have no objections to what was said: it just makes sense. I'll merely say that I also noticed the strange switch DM made from being seemingly dead set on me being scum (even in the dead chat last night, he was into that) to suddenly strongly considering scum!Ikarus world, to the point of saying he considers both worlds equally. I believe I had also commented on this.
-vote Dark Magician
I’ve been scumreading them since Day 1. I tr’d MM which is why i sent him to be medium. I personally would lynch ikarusdk before MM anyway.
Also @MartinGG I didnt want DM dead on dead 2 because his role was beneficial for town with your info in play. It make it harder for mafia to fake anything if there are two people getting the info. Thats why it was bad to kill him Day 2. Day 3 on the other hands is pretty good time to kill him
Right, so this is what I wanted to ask you from your wall (chapter 1 specifically), but it's a separate topic so I'm making a separate post. What's your take on PoD, exactly? I've always more or less assumed he was town here, tbh, at least since the triple medium claims are a thing (considering I scumread DM for pretty much all that time to various extents). I also didn't see any red flags (although I have not specifically ISOed him, specifically because he sounded good). Moreover, I feel like sending me to the dead chat was a very honestly pro-town move, as I was pretty sure not to die, considering scum absolutely needed me alive. He could have sent somebody else, and I don't think it would have threatened him at all.
If there are 3 mafia in our 14er with 1 neutral
10 player currently alive means 6 players are town.
Worst Case Scenario if you lynch ikarus on day 3.
Day 3 - 6t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
town nk'd
Day 4 - 4t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
nk
Day 5 - 2t, 3m, 1n
Town loses
We can only allow 2 mislynches - something Mafia knows, and DM is utilizing it to cause a mislynch on myself and MM on Day 3 and 4, because if we lynch me here, you will lynch MM tomorrow and you know it
Lynching DM who would flip town
Day 3 - 6t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
town nk'd
Day 4 - 4t, 3m, 1n
lynch MM
town nk'd
Day 5 - 3t, 2m, 1n
Not Lylo
So lynching DM is the correct play here because even if I'm wrong in 1 in a million chance we lynch MM the next day who would flip wolf.
I've looked, or rather glanced at PoD's ISO because I've been analyzing ISOs for like 2-3 hours in total today lol, and I rather see a non-association between him and DM, if anything. PoD looks like he's actually trying to solve DM, his push doesn't look half-assed, and according to vote history, his vote on DM remains for quite a long time (from post 505 to post 1084), although it doesn't end on him at EoD (but it also ends on Mac, the banana counterwagon, and not weirdly off-wagon like Wisp's vote). I'm failing to see what you seem to be seeing, tbh.
I am now tired and should do something else lol, been doing this for a while now. I'll be back later today, but not in the next hours, probably. Will read the replies when I come back; ping if you wish.
There doing pretty good though.
To be honest, I will need to think about PoD and Wiisp further because I am not 100% certain. While neither has shown clear red flags, they both had scummy AND towny posts. Sometimes they aligned with my own worldview, sometimes they went against it. I am leaning against PoD to be quite honest.
As to why I believe Mac and Stellaria are town - they have never shown any anti-town agenda and more or less shared the same worldview, despite small clash in details here and there, unlike PoD and Wiisps. I do admit that I am guilty of being a little biased towards Mac and Stellaria becuase they called me town too many times.
Things will develop and further cement into something more solid as days progress, so we will see.
I don’t think any of the informed wolves have shown red flags to you or you are the red flag yourself DK.
PoD and Wiisp both stand in equal footing in my world, although I scumread Wiisp more than PoD on day 1. However, as I quoted Wiisp's post before in my wall, Wiisps asks a very good, revealing question. In a W!MM world, why the hell is Ikarus on the same footing as MM? What makes DM so sure about this that he doesn't care who he votes today?
I thought about the possibility of Wiisp realising town figuring DM is mafia, and taking it into himself to distance from DM by asking unanswerable question - because let's face it. In a T!DM world, W!MM is mechanically certain. What else could you find in a player(me) so suspicious that you would switch from a townread to scumread and this read is strong enough to have the same weight as mechanically proven wolf to T!DM?
Is it likely? Probably not, given the timing of Wiisps' post.
Spoiler : Calling me out :
I don't know. Maybe my handling of reports (and thus having full information all the time) is crippling me here, but the truth is, you can look back at my meta and I've never been a strong forum mafia player without solid information. It doesn't help work slammed me this week with a surprise fire (that should've been mentioned months ago) but the fact is that I'm not good at a lot of this analysis, at least at the timeframes needed. I get up from the night, see 300 posts, and get paralyzed with indecision about how to analyze them all.
If I knew how to read/analyze people in FM I would. Honestly I probably shouldn't even have signed up because its not fair to the other players for me to be this inactive.
Beyond that, looking at the role list, I'd say MM/Ikarus is one of my scum votes. Achro is neutral working on his wincon. The reason I flipped on Achro is because I didn't foresee two Jesters and had Kuti as a lock for that. Obviously a bad read there.
ebwop
'can you answer this* question?'
I am just ISOing PoD at the moment.
DM-PoD interaction doesn't look 100% genuine. Pod has been on DM's case since Day 1. I've seen this in Stellaria and Frinckles when they were wolves with me, and the votes and the case seemed unncessarily prolonged without good developing (progressing) evidence or case about their suspicion on the player. Neither has shown 'that tone' you'd see if you legit suspect someone. Not to mention when PoD was pushing DM, DM did not share the same intensity as he was OMGUSing PoD as he did with me. Maybe I am being paranoid at this point but they feel as if they wanted to distance away from each other especially day 1.
Now that I think about it, my gut feeling (and it is just a gut feeling), PoD is shares alignment as either DM or MM as wolf
In M!DM world = PoD is wolf
In M!MM world = PoD is wolf.
So I guess, what my gut feeling is telling me is PoD is a wolf.
Having said that I feel funny about he whole event around voting Achro to protect Banana/Mac, but I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and read it favourably towards PoD, rather than in negative light. I'm saying this because as I was ISOing, his reasoning around Achro, Banana and Mac felt weirdly out of coordination, but they ended up making sense as I read more. To this end, these posts made me townread PoD.
So man, I don't know about PoD. I need time to think.
[QUOTE=ikarusdk;990707] ehhhh meant to reply to @Arrow
I'm gonna go to bed, but I'll look into PoD-Wiisp more tomorrow, also decide if leaving Arrow till we solve those two is a better idea or if we can afford to lynch Arrow before them.
The last time the group tried to align me with a wolf, they lost the game. If u think I'm thag obviously aligned with someone who hasn't flipped yet, than u should be telling yourself that you are wrong
Gth Pod/Arrow/DM
I haven't even begun to think of an MM team but I also don't think it would be different
Also u guys love to all post when I'm asleep
Also when has their been an opportunity to really kill DM?
I was just realising this though after re reading DM.
From T!DM POV, if ikarus is wolf - MM doesn't have to be, because I lied about carol - which...as much as it saddens for me to say this because it somewhat contradicts what I said in my big wall, makes sense about his day 3, why I'm up there with MM.
I am trying to be as transparent here because as I am reflecting back on the whole situation, I simply do not want to mislynch anyone right now, because we can only afford 1 mislynch.
Having said this, if DM is indeed a mislynch, we only have to lynch MM the next day, because there is no other possible way MM is not a wolf in that situation FMPOV.
I would appreciate my townreads input on this because people need to help solve this, especially ultra who has been town cleared.
Help me. How likely do you think DM was pulling thr gambit I was talking about. Or is it simply that DM distrusts me that much from our sod2 interaction that he is willing to call the whole carol a lie.
If your group wolf DK is like damn though would it have killed you to not go for me, an easy elimination as shown day 1.
I showed why I was town to the dead players and they acknowledged it.
Even MM admitted I was more Townie in dead chat.