Day J

[Forum Mafia GM]

New arrivals:
Ceasar
Agahnim

[FM Wolverine]

New arrivals:
Ceasar
Agahnim

What about me?! I'm new!

[FM Wolverine]

Also, I think Frog made a mistake in shooting Agahnim with the blacksmith gun (totally knew he'd get it, by the way). I think his best target would've been Cluseau, who suspects him the most. Though Agahnim was a key town leader, and would've been a good kill earlier, at this point his support of Frog would've been invaluable, would likely have lead to a mislynch on Tut, essentially securing the victory.

Instead, he'll have to get a mislynch on Cluseau today, which could prove difficult. Though without Agahnim around, it may be easier. Frog has done well so far, I think she's got what it takes to pull it out, but I'm not sure that was the best choice. I guess we'll see.

[FM Ceasar]

Gimili had the gun...

[FM Hungry]

Also, I think Frog made a mistake in shooting Agahnim with the blacksmith gun (totally knew he'd get it, by the way). I think his best target would've been Cluseau, who suspects him the most. Though Agahnim was a key town leader, and would've been a good kill earlier, at this point his support of Frog would've been invaluable, would likely have lead to a mislynch on Tut, essentially securing the victory.

Instead, he'll have to get a mislynch on Cluseau today, which could prove difficult. Though without Agahnim around, it may be easier. Frog has done well so far, I think she's got what it takes to pull it out, but I'm not sure that was the best choice. I guess we'll see.

I don't think frog got the gun. Agahnim has been calling frog a townie all game.

[FM Hungry]

Agahnim was extremely scummy, so shooting him was probably for the best.

[FM Ceasar]

You're kidding me? I told Gimili to shoot Tut, but he shot Agahnim. Good scum move, but FROG is the Witch?

[FM Wolverine]

I don't think frog got the gun. Agahnim has been calling frog a townie all game.

I'm 90% sure Frog got it. Ceasar never gave it to anyone twice (intentionally, I believe), which means the choice was between Gimli, Tut, or Frog. Tut is obviously ruled out for being scummy as hell, leaving Gimli or Frog. There is a small chance Gimli got it, but as Frog was clearly a much stronger player, my guess is that he got the gun.

Also, Yayap, while I do appreciate the subtle joke of the day's name, J being the 10th letter of the alphabet (thus representing day 10) while also being Michigan's middle initial, there's a chance it might not have been subtle enough...

[FM Captain Obvious]

Yay Gimli!

[FM Ceasar]

FUCK, HE IS!

YOU'RE A DUMBASS GIMILI!

[FM Wolverine]

You're kidding me? I told Gimili to shoot Tut, but he shot Agahnim. Good scum move, but FROG is the Witch?

Never mind, then. Well, Gimli was my second choice. Interesting. Very interesting indeed.

[FM Ceasar]

EVEN THOUGH ALMOST ALL MY GUNS HAVE GONE TO TOWN, THE FUCK IT UP EVERY SINGLE TIME!

[FM Wolverine]

EVEN THOUGH ALMOST ALL MY GUNS HAVE GONE TO TOWN, THE FUCK IT UP EVERY SINGLE TIME!

To be fair, even though I'm scum, you guys chose my kill, so I'm going to call that 100% misfires for town.

[Forum Mafia GM]

The only 2 items that went to scum=
vest on n1 = random
and the gun to wolverine that YOU had complete control over.

[FM Ceasar]

And... my anger is gone... until I can flame Gimili in epilougue...

Anyway, is anyone impressed with this

PLEASE READ THIS AND GIVE YOUR OPINION!

Due to yesterday’s flips, here is the new first post list. (Btw, I missed a couple of players because I originally thought I might be wasting my time with this. However, if someone wants to fill in the blanks, please do.)

Greetings/Spammy first post
Ceasar
Robin Hood
Yoda
Master Chef
Terminator
Gandalf
Jack Sparrow
Indiana Jones
Thrakhath
Yosemite Sam
Mr. T
Cookie Monster
Hungry
Sherlock
Animal
Count-Von-Count
Hamburglar
Wile E Coyote
Cluseau
King Tut (Pretty much ever post has been spammy)
Gimili
Rubber Duck
Dracula

Borderline
Bridge Keeper
Arthur
Cpt. Jack
Obvious
Agahnim
Watson

Non-introductory first posts
Anubis
Michigan J
Wolverine
SpongeBob
Locutus
Pinkie Pie


While I didn't ever vote SB, as the day progressed, I wanted to lynch SpongeBob more and more, partly due to how scummy his defence was, and partly because I wanted to see how valid this chart was. New statistics for chart are...

Category #1
#Of Confirmed Towns: 18
#Of Confirmed Scum: 2
#Of Unknowns: 3
Town to Mafia ratio: 9:1

%Of Confirmed Towns in Category: 78.3%
%Of Confirmed Scum in Category: 33.3%
%Of Unknowns in Category: 50.0%

Conclusion
Town % is much higher then Scum %. Being in Category #1 = Town Tell.


Category #2
#Of Confirmed Towns: 4
#Of Confirmed Scum: 1
#Of Unknowns: 1
Town to Mafia ratio: 4:1

%Of Confirmed Towns in Category: 17.4%
%Of Confirmed Scum in Category: 16.7%
%Of Unknowns in Category: 16.7%

Conclusion

Town % and Scum % in Category 2 are extreamely similar. Being in Category 2 = Null Tell

Category #3
#Of Confirmed Towns: 1
#Of Confirmed Scum: 3
#Of Unknowns: 2
Town to Mafia ratio: 4:1

%Of Confirmed Towns in Category: 4.3%
%Of Confirmed Scum in Category: 50.0%
%Of Unknowns in Category: 33.3%

Conclusion
Scum % of Category 3 is over 20 times that of Town. Being in Category 3 = HUGE Scumtell


Final Conclusion
While only 50% of scum appear in Category #3 (which is still a lot), an absolutely miniscule 4.3% (1/23) of the town appeared there. The lesson we can learn from that is that while all scum don't necessarily appear in Category 3, if you do appear in Category 3, your statistical chances of being scum sky-rocket. Incidentally, TWO of the remaining unknowns appear in Category #3, and we are looking for TWO scum.

In short, as someone who strongly believes in statistics, I would be amazed if Frog and Wolverine are both town.

Lastly, for anyone who says basing scum-tells off of everyone’s first post is invalid; this is not based off of first posts. This is based off of statistical analysis.

I filled it in with all missing roles, but I had the chart up for 2 days. Unfortunately, no one bothered to comment...

Let's see if town is cabable of reading.

[Forum Mafia GM]

I think Cluseau has gone insane... he is arguing with himself.

[FM Wolverine]

And... my anger is gone... until I can flame Gimili in epilougue...

Anyway, is anyone impressed with this



I filled it in with all missing roles, but I had the chart up for 2 days. Unfortunately, no one bothered to comment...

Let's see if town is cabable of reading.

I mean, on the one hand, goddamn that's accurate for this game. But on the other, Frog's right about sample size. You'd need to analyze a lot more FMs to apply this to any other games. Plus, even if this is true, it only requires a slight change to the metagame (everyone makes sure they say "hi" in their first post) before it is rendered useless.

But in the context of this game... Well done.

[FM Ceasar]

I think Cluseau has gone insane... he is arguing with himself.

Imo, Cluseau's performence this game varyed between very intelegent and making people wonder if he was dropped as a child.

[FM Ceasar]

I mean, on the one hand, goddamn that's accurate for this game. But on the other, Frog's right about sample size. You'd need to analyze a lot more FMs to apply this to any other games. Plus, even if this is true, it only requires a slight change to the metagame (everyone makes sure they say "hi" in their first post) before it is rendered useless.

But in the context of this game... Well done.

Policy's change very much in this game. People will see what I wrote down and go "Okay, next time I'm scum I need to make sure not to make that scumtell"

This scumtell was meant to be used for this game alone. I doubt it will be effective in future games. However, I believe it was very effective in this game... if only people would listen to my important posts...

[FM Agahnim]

Ha Frog is witch.
Damnit.

I blame Morons and Trolls.

They will figure it out though.

[FM Pinkie Pie]

Correct action is to get Queen Tit lynched today.

And kill Gimli tonight with Sherlock.

Leaving Cluseau, Sherlock and Frog tomorrow.

[FM Pinkie Pie]

I wonder if Sherlock will side with Frog if Cluseau pushes for his lynch today...

Trololol

[FM Pinkie Pie]

Wolverine was Scum MVP! Err... Framer.

Evil Yayap.

[FM Agahnim]

Correct action is to get Queen Tit lynched today.

And kill Gimli tonight with Sherlock.

Leaving Cluseau, Sherlock and Frog tomorrow.

Yes. this.

[FM Hamburglar]

Sigh. Frog is the only one alive who didn't vote for wolverine.
That should be reason enough to lynch him.

Also he acts just like spongebob did. The lack of substance and his actual contribution to day chat which equals 0 are more than enough indicators to get him lynched. Besides, he never FoSd any scum, not even to cover up.
But go lynch Cluseau who immediately voted all the scum, gj. Or Tut who's been a sheep all the time.

[FM Agahnim]

Sigh. Frog is the only one alive who didn't vote for wolverine.
That should be reason enough to lynch him.

Also he acts just like spongebob did. The lack of substance and his actual contribution to day chat which equals 0 are more than enough indicators to get him lynched. Besides, he never FoSd any scum, not even to cover up.
But go lynch Cluseau who immediately voted all the scum, gj. Or Tut who's been a sheep all the time.

Your right Frogs posts have no real substance towards scumhunting the actual scum.
The reason I put Frog down as town was due to the massive amount of time she spent doing reads and giving voting tallys and reads into that.
So far she is the only scum, aside from me, that I have ever seen ever doing that.

[FM Pinkie Pie]

Your right Frogs posts have no real substance towards scumhunting the actual scum.

That's what most of the town did. Too passive.

[FM Hamburglar]

She is scum, like wolverine and spongebob scum yo.
Too bad i died too early Although i did mention the vote things. Also, i believe frog misvoted twice on scum so far?

[FM Pinkie Pie]

She is scum, like wolverine and spongebob scum yo.
Too bad i died too early Although i did mention the vote things. Also, i believe frog misvoted twice on scum so far?

Your reasons to lynch Wolverine sucks. Though I agree he seemed scummy.

And yes. Frog misvoted.

Slaol is digging his grave for tomorrow. clementine's gonna kill Gimli tonight.

Go Sherlock, friend of Watson!

[FM Hamburglar]

Well, to make things interesting i propose a game:
Sort of a graveyard scumhunt:

Try to figure out who i was before i got modkilled and then reinstated in this FM. (Yes, i played twice) I also told yayap that i missed the day i got modkilled literally by 1 minute (lol), but it was already too late to undo the modkill

Note: It said last post by FM GM 1 minute ago, which was the Day end post.

FML

so:

What was the current FM Hamburglars FM account before he got replaced?

[FM Hamburglar]

Your reasons to lynch Wolverine sucks. Though I agree he seemed scummy.

And yes. Frog misvoted.

Slaol is digging his grave for tomorrow. clementine's gonna kill Gimli tonight.

Go Sherlock, friend of Watson!

the way he defended himself and purposefully left out my reason WHY i fosd him (yes i was bugged by the phrasing of his sentence, it indirectly implied that he was scum) made him look all the more scum.

[FM Pinkie Pie]

Batman: LeaD
Count von Count: MintBerry Crunch
Dracula: Bahkieh
Kermit: Brendan
Lone Ranger: Dimwit
Mr T: Bunny
Prince Thrakhath: Bruno
Robin Hood: RaikouRider

Ruled out Kermit, Dracula.

I guess Robin Hood. The only unannounced modkill.

[FM Wile E Coyote]

Does the Witch wins a tie between the Vigi and herself?

[FM Rubber Ducky]

And... my anger is gone... until I can flame Gimili in epilougue...

Anyway, is anyone impressed with this



I filled it in with all missing roles, but I had the chart up for 2 days. Unfortunately, no one bothered to comment...

Let's see if town is cabable of reading.

Nope. It listed me as scum

[FM Pinkie Pie]

Hi Auckmid I suppose.

[FM Pinkie Pie]

Does the Witch wins a tie between the Vigi and herself?

Town's winning strategy: We might not know whom the witch is, but hey the witch cannot kill the vigilante!

[FM Rubber Ducky]

Hi Auckmid I suppose.

Me? Nope. My name start with da J

[FM Agahnim]

The original Hamburgler was Chane I think

[FM Agahnim]

This is what should happen:

Tut lynched:

Gimli killed at night:

Frog lynched.


What will happen:

Tut lynched

Gimli killed

Cluse mislynched

[FM Agahnim]

Just so I'm clear


What was so scummy about me?

[FM Hamburglar]

So far nobody got my identity right neither com nor previous

[FM Pinkie Pie]

This is what should happen:

Tut lynched:

Gimli killed at night:

Frog lynched.


What will happen:

Tut lynched

Gimli killed

Cluse mislynched

This is what SHOULD happen

Tut is always active and contributing

Gimli is always active and contributing

Cluse is always active and contributing

[FM Agahnim]

Just so I'm clear


What was so scummy about me?

Nvm.



Amused so many people thought I was scum and I never got lynched

[FM Beast]

We found SK D1 and Witch D2. I chose to roleblock SK D1.

Scum is winning due to great play by mafia. Except Pinkie Pie the newb.

[FM Agahnim]

We found SK D1 and Witch D2. I chose to roleblock SK D1.

Scum is winning due to great play by mafia. Except Pinkie Pie the newb.

O.o

Are you reading the same game?

Only the Witch is playing well for scum

[FM Agahnim]

We found SK D1 and Witch D2. I chose to roleblock SK D1.

Scum is winning due to great play by mafia. Except Pinkie Pie the newb.

Well.

Maybe I am confused.

>>
<<
>>

Need to pay more attention

[FM Ceasar]

Hi Auckmid I suppose.

Who you talking too?

[FM Ceasar]

Your right Frogs posts have no real substance towards scumhunting the actual scum.
The reason I put Frog down as town was due to the massive amount of time she spent doing reads and giving voting tallys and reads into that.
So far she is the only scum, aside from me, that I have ever seen ever doing that.

Those aren't town tells. Those are scum tells...

[FM King Arthur]

Time spent on reads is a slight but not definite town tell, because if those reads are shared it helps the town more than it helps scum.

Posting tallies doesn't tell anything. Analysis of them can be a town or scumtell, depending on the context. Just pointing at votes and saying X is scum and Y is town (especially saying YOU are town because of it) is a scumtell.

Frog didn't actually know who the mafia were, so saying she was trying to obscure them by only ever finding evidence against townsmembers and not against people who flipped scum doesn't really fly. I think she was mostly playing as she would be playing if she were actually town, with a few exceptions. Such as that convenience vote vs Gandalf, which had very little explanation behind it. And being more present in the mid-game. Day 3-4-5 she mostly sat by watching the town go against itself while leaders like Agahnim were calling her confirmed town all too easily.

[FM King Arthur]

Anyway I think it's dumb they didn't lynch Sherlock today. Sure, they would've had the same number of days to lynch people other than Sherlock, but now they're allowing the witch to choose another death that's most advantageous to her.