S-FM 353: Death Nominations

[tutuu]

I'm here and I'm reconsidering tutuu as one of my town leans, mainly because the PoE has been obviously wrong and that's definitely the case from my perspective with all D2 nominees as town.

Why now? Why were you chill with voting martin earlier?

[Wiml]

I've come to the conclusion that my vote stays on Richard for pragmatic reasons. It's best for me to hope that Richard is mafia rather than hope Tutuu is mafia.

I do think Scumbot is mafia though. Ikarus is someone I would look at again if I had more time because he didn't really hesitate in voting between me and Richard. Seemed odd for someone who (I think) invests themselves a lot into the game. But that could just be relatively nothing. Idk. Felt worth looking into a bit at least.

To whoever the wolf is between Richard and Tutuu, well played. While I was looking at parts of Richard's ISO they seemed non-w/w with Tutuu so I think its just one wolf between them.



However, I will note that there will be 2 times between classes I can pop in here with my phone before EoD to change my vote if changing my vote to tutuu helps resolve the issue that vittae spoke of (wherein not completely consolidating votes in a f5/f7 gives wolves more chances to win). Outside of that, no matter how convincing the argument, I'm not changing my vote for today.

This seems fair, yeah.

[CRichardForumLies]

If scumbot is mafia, then Martin would have to be town as there's no reason for wolves to vote their own buddies in a cross vote.

[bakermir]

That goes for anyone advocating for a vote on tutuu: please read what I've said about her and engage with me on it???

You are saying Tutuu vs X won't work as long as one in martin and crichard is voting each other.

I think thats just a lazy way out

[tutuu]

mechanically?

Its lylo. If theyre both town its a mech loss

[CRichardForumLies]

Why now? Why were you chill with voting martin earlier?

Because from my perspective, it's either one of you or Martin and the fact that scumbot is voting on Martin who I distrust is making me suspect Martin and I might be town/town.

[Wiml]

You are saying Tutuu vs X won't work as long as one in martin and crichard is voting each other.

I think thats just a lazy way out

This is NOT what I'm saying, please read the posts I was referring to.

[Wiml]

If scumbot is mafia, then Martin would have to be town as there's no reason for wolves to vote their own buddies in a cross vote.

This setup strongly incentivises bussing and the lack of locked votes means that scumbot could easily vote off of Martin to hammer a different wagon at EoD if necessary so I don't think this is valid.

[tutuu]

Because from my perspective, it's either one of you or Martin and the fact that scumbot is voting on Martin who I distrust is making me suspect Martin and I might be town/town.

Thats now, but why were u chill with doing it earlier? Before scumbot voted?

[bakermir]

If scumbot is mafia, then Martin would have to be town as there's no reason for wolves to vote their own buddies in a cross vote.

That's what I think.


Martin has been way more towny today than tutuu and the fact that you two were pushed for a fight which turned out to be weak.



This all comes down to what ikarus alignment is which we can think about it tomorrow if we can chop tutuu.

I'm just saying, there is nothing stopping you and Martin from locking votes on tutuu, scumbots nr1 associate. I think you are town enough to vote in that direction. Martin, I am still unsure.

[CRichardForumLies]

Thats now, but why were u chill with doing it earlier? Before scumbot voted?

I was chill at the time, yet it dawned on me that you weren't getting serious scrutiny, despite being one of 3 nominees in LyLo.

[tutuu]

@bakermir im town 😭

[Wiml]

Baker, can you please respond to the points I put out about tutuu being town earlier?

[Wiml]

This setup strongly incentivises bussing and the lack of locked votes means that scumbot could easily vote off of Martin to hammer a different wagon at EoD if necessary so I don't think this is valid.

I also want to see CRich respond to this.

[CRichardForumLies]

It occurred to me that assuming D2 was all town nominees, that the mafia were sitting back not caring which of us gets chopped. Lets see which slots were taking a backseat during D2.

[CRichardForumLies]

I also want to see CRich respond to this.

We can argue about how much mafia busses till the cows come home, yet I would imagine this to be low chance when mafia are 1 mislunch away from winning the game.

[Wiml]

We can argue about how much mafia busses till the cows come home, yet I would imagine this to be low chance when mafia are 1 mislunch away from winning the game.

Statistically, I'd say it happens about 40-50% of the time even in normal F7s with locked votes.

So with unlocked votes I'd expect it to be higher if anything.

[CRichardForumLies]

Ok I'm open to having the cross move to tutuu and Martin, as I'm town from my perspective and it's a 50/50 I'm crossed with Martin as town right now.

[Wiml]

Statistically, I'd say it happens about 40-50% of the time even in normal F7s with locked votes.

So with unlocked votes I'd expect it to be higher if anything.

Since it's not a commitment to need to bus any more due to the ability to make last minute switches.

[bakermir]

Because from my perspective, it's either one of you or Martin and the fact that scumbot is voting on Martin who I distrust is making me suspect Martin and I might be town/town.

EXACTLY

I think Martin had his ups and downs this game. Scumbot showing no remorse on Martin and putting tutuu on a blind spot is pretty damning.

it would be a shame if I end up voting Martin under these circumstances. obv i am not voting Martin in this gamestate.

Not to mention, this is our second game where I think I am reading you correct again. (First being Anni 2023)

Your responses to my questions, but also today to Martin shows you are more town than many here.

tutuu otoh had a progression on d1 and never got out of it still. I won't forgive a lazy tunnel. even then, tutuu/scumbot block has been surviving this game all along.

we can figure out ikarus/martin/vittae tomorrow assuming I am right on townlocking you the entire time

[Wiml]

Ok I'm open to having the cross move to tutuu and Martin, as I'm town from my perspective and it's a 50/50 I'm crossed with Martin as town right now.

Hypothetically, if I insisted you were in the cross would you rather cross with Tutuu or Martin?

[Wiml]

Because like

Yeah obviously anyone wants to get out of the cross when it involves themselves, that doesn't say much

[tutuu]

My bus arrives at my hotel in 5 hours. Need to go now. Ill try my best

[CRichardForumLies]

Hypothetically, if I insisted you were in the cross would you rather cross with Tutuu or Martin?

If you asked me this at start of the day, it would be Martin. Yet that feels too easy. tutuu not getting scrutinized while Martin and I voted each other shouldn't be ignored. I feel that the mafia keeping focus off of tutuu makes the situation off to me.

[Wiml]

I knew today was going to be stressful but I didn't expect it to be stressful so soon lmao.

[Wiml]

If you asked me this at start of the day, it would be Martin. Yet that feels too easy. tutuu not getting scrutinized while Martin and I voted each other shouldn't be ignored. I feel that the mafia keeping focus off of tutuu makes the situation off to me.

I understand this at least.

Do you have thoughts on my townpoints for tutuu?

[Wiml]

Because that's a large reason why I don't want to vote her today.

[bakermir]

I understand this at least.

Do you have thoughts on my townpoints for tutuu?

I do.

Wait for it though ;p

I have to go to the gym first

[CRichardForumLies]

I understand this at least.

Do you have thoughts on my townpoints for tutuu?

I'll take a good look at them.

[bakermir]

-vote tutuu

doing the right thing

[Wiml]

I do.

Wait for it though ;p

I have to go to the gym first

I'm looking forward to seeing what you have to say then.

[CRichardForumLies]

@MartinGG99 If you want to switch to tutuu, now is your chance.

[bakermir]

This is a thunderdome between me vs scumbot/tutuu

Feel free to reeval the gamestate and stop the invisible force that is stopping us from chopping tutuu/scumbot entire game.

Or submit to them and lose the game

I will work on the case when I am back from gym later

[Wiml]

I'm getting extremely worried about a Baker + Martin/CRich + ? world where Baker is trying to powerwolf the vote onto Tutuu who he expects to be easier to flip than whichever villager crossed with his scum partner (or that both are w/w and tutuu is the only villager in the nominations).

[Wiml]

You can't thunderdome because you can't get voted lmao.

[CRichardForumLies]

Uh....possibly?

Richard felt preety respectful earlier, maybe like formal western shootout/standoff style (if you don't know what that means I don't either) when they found out they had to vote me. Didn't feel very agenda'ed.

Lets suppose we're town vs town for the moment, which is looking more likely by the minute. Have you noticed how tutuu was escaping scrutiny while we are voting each other? If one of us is mafia, why the lack of panic around us two?

[Wiml]

Lets suppose we're town vs town for the moment, which is looking more likely by the minute. Have you noticed how tutuu was escaping scrutiny while we are voting each other? If one of us is mafia, why the lack of panic around us two?

CRich are you currently seeing the panic around you and Martin here? Lmao

[CRichardForumLies]

CRich are you currently seeing the panic around you and Martin here? Lmao

It was subdued until now. I feel that there would be panic earlier if Martin is mafia. Unless the mafia are acting chill for WIFOM.

[Wiml]

I'm struggling to understand how you can possibly be arguing that there's no panic / attempts to push onto Tutuu rn regardless of what you think her alignment is

[Wiml]

It was subdued until now. I feel that there would be panic earlier if Martin is mafia. Unless the mafia are acting chill for WIFOM.

Aren't a lot of the currently alive platers in timezones that wouldn't have been very active over the last several hours anyway?

[Wiml]

There's only two (?) Americans alive and they're the two lowest influence players in the game atm.

[CRichardForumLies]

Vittae I'd like to ask why you seem so dead set on tutuu being town, even though we've had 3 wrong mislunches in a row. Unless I'm blind, you haven't seriously considered the possibility that tutuu is pocketing you. Why is that?

[Wiml]

Vittae I'd like to ask why you seem so dead set on tutuu being town, even though we've had 3 wrong mislunches in a row. Unless I'm blind, you haven't seriously considered the possibility that tutuu is pocketing you. Why is that?

I have, I just don't post every thought I have in the thread all the time or I'd be posting 300+ times every 24 hours.

You can see me questioning tutuu on things and then spending something like 4 hours ISOing her if you look at timestamps though.

[Wiml]

Again, I'm absolutely interested in debating my logic on her being town.

[CRichardForumLies]

We've had 3 mischops in a row on AFKers one way or the other, that means the PoE was way off and it tells me the mafia slipped out of PoE at least during D1/D2. Now we're at Lylo. Baker is just town and if they're not then this game is scuffed for mafia. No biggie, we move onto the next game.

[Wiml]

And I'm getting increasingly concerned that nobody angling for a tutuu push wants to address it when it's something I think is very strongly in her favour.

[Wiml]

We've had 3 mischops in a row on AFKers one way or the other, that means the PoE was way off and it tells me the mafia slipped out of PoE at least during D1/D2. Now we're at Lylo. Baker is just town and if they're not then this game is scuffed for mafia. No biggie, we move onto the next game.

Why is Baker "just town" and not worth reconsidering?

[Wiml]

I fully agree that the PoE has been wrong and that's a big reason why I'm so concerned about Baker's D3.

[Wiml]

I fully agree that the PoE has been wrong and that's a big reason why I'm so concerned about Baker's D3.

*Baker's D4

[CRichardForumLies]

Why is Baker "just town" and not worth reconsidering?

They feel like panicked town during LyLo, which to me doesn't come across as fake. It reminds me of previous town baker games on my home site.