Day II: Fires of War

[FM Sandruu]

An early claim for Sheriff. Now one has to question whether Glissa is worth lynching.... Well obviously she is pretty much outted, however to detrimine is she is Sasha would require another day. So what it really comes down to is if their is anyone thats of higher value to lynch.

[FM Domri Rade]

I disagree with Dack's idea of letting the dark take care of the dark. It's what links the darkness of Jace with the darkness of Dack. Both think that shades should fight each other. I take issue because this early, the light is every shade's problem. Gimping other scum teams only aids the light. History is replete with examples.

The light is responsible for what the light does and does not do. Do not expect the dark to clean themselves up. I cannot let this town let the dark overrun the light by standing idle.

[FM Dack Fayden]

Do you really think Sasha would be this blatant in defending her cult buddy, if she is indeed cult?

I think Glissa should be dealt with today (by dayvig or lynch) but I like the outspoken stance Dack is taking.

If Glissa flips reaper, consort on me. Make scum block a potential Sasha so that town resources can be used elsewhere.

The mafia have no rule but themselves. We can only choose what we do. Do you claim to control the darkness?

I claim aspirations to manipulate darkness into performing semi-pro-town actions. Whether darkness listens to me, only time will tell.

Not sure why it does. If we hypothetically follow Dack's suggesting and leave me be for today, and we wanted to get rid of the Witch, then it would be better to use a vigilante on the Witch rather than lynch her because then we can use the day to pressure someone else for information and then possibly lynch them.

Lynch = witch
Vig = Glissa or the pressure suspect

Using a vig to enact the lynch means that we don't have to shuffle votes at the end of the day. We should vote whoever we want to pressure and if no better target emerges, vig can hit Glissa.

[FM Sandruu]

Oh I also forgot to mention that I was rudely awaken by some drunk individual and forced to spend the night so other chick's house.

Bus Driven by who I suppose to now 6 feet under.

[FM Jace Beleren]

The Basileus of Byzantium has returned...

With a Catholic Zealot -Reaper- possibly discovered, and maybe even the Pope -Sasha- shall we stand by and let them tear us apart from within?

I would suggest the Vigilante day shoot the claim of the Witch, and we lynch the possible Zealot -Reaper-.

I am unsure of I trust our Sheriff, claiming this early in the game doesn't seem Sheriffy. Although I would likely do the same if I believed I had found the Pope -Sasha-.

As to Glissa, she seems to be far too eager and calmed to claim to be a Surgeon -Medic- and I normally would not expect a claim with this few votes. It seems as if she wants it off her as fast as possible and to not leave the town with a choice of either lynching her or lynch no one.

Also, nothing happened to me last night.

-vote FM Glissa Sunseeker

I shall return in a while, something came up in RL today.

[FM Dack Fayden]

I agree with this, and my thoughts on lynching the witch is presented in an earlier post of mine.

Dack, besides Elspeth and Glissa, who do you want to lynch today and why?

I have some unfinished business with yourself, FM Meshuvel, and FM Nicol Bolas. Please comment on those two other players or link me to the post where you said you did.

I would also like FM Baltrice to claim a random scum role just as an exercise in fun.

Need this information plus time to analyze flips to figure out where my reads stand.

[FM Nicol Bolas]

Nicol is viewing this thread but hasn't spoken.
I'd like his thoughts on this atm

When I logged on comma there was twenty dash five posts comma now you are all posting at fifty posts an hour period I am still catching up comma just finished page two period Ill give my thoughts when I have a more complete picture of the chaos someone just started period

[FM Chandra Nalaar]

Why are we sure we have a vig? Shouldn't we save vigi day shot for night immune roles like godfather?

......

[FM Tessebik]

1) I support the dayvig on Glissa and then a lynch on either the witch or possibly Domri (if Glissa doesn't flip cult).
2) I see no need to act on any other purely observation-based FoSes right now since we may very well have a sheriff to investigate for us tonight.
3) Magikarp > Sandshrew

[FM Dack Fayden]

Hey kids, votes on Elspeth. Scum has literally no incentive to kill her at night whereas there is marginal incentive for scum to kill Glissa at night.

Probabilities of scum on scum kills:
0% Elspeth the witch gets killed by scum
10% Glissa gets killed: mafia fears the reapers, Domri is actually mafia and they outed a doc claim, etc. these are just off the top of my head.

This is why your vote should be on Elspeth.

[FM Baltrice]

I have some unfinished business with yourself, FM Meshuvel, and FM Nicol Bolas. Please comment on those two other players or link me to the post where you said you did.

I would also like FM Baltrice to claim a random scum role just as an exercise in fun.

Need this information plus time to analyze flips to figure out where my reads stand.

No.

[FM Sarkhan Vol]

Nothing happened to me and I'm rather disappointed that my claim was to avail.

I am not part of any group, which mean that the plan was not followed.

[FM Parcher]

Aight I'm totally missing something, how do we know Elspeth is Witch

[FM Sifa Grent]

Hmm, maybe because she said so herself?

[FM Domri Rade]

Aight I'm totally missing something, how do we know Elspeth is Witch

She claimed that dark role. I don't know if anyone has definite proof of her alignment either in the light or dark.

Sarkhon, Praise the Sun you are still alive. It is a shame that you were not recruited into that shining order.

[FM Ravi Sengir]

Hmm, maybe because she said so herself?

Because we should take everything everyone says at face value? Come now. You must know that will not do.

Oh, and before I forget, my night was uneventful.

[FM Dack Fayden]

More reasons for lynching Elspeth:

-Domri Rade can continue to check people at night without risk of results being tampered with by the witch.
-vig could be afk and not follow through with our plan for him to shoot the witch
-scum has to use a consort block on Domri Rade to prevent investigations. WIFOM lookout on Domri and we can figure out who a mafia member might be and/or continue to have successful sheriff results.

[FM Chandra Nalaar]

Any reason everybody is ignoring me??

[FM Domri Rade]

Any reason everybody is ignoring me??

Your questions are not directed at any one individual in particular. Be a laser, not a lightbulb for those questions.

[FM Domri Rade]

More reasons for lynching Elspeth:

-Domri Rade can continue to check people at night without risk of results being tampered with by the witch.
-vig could be afk and not follow through with our plan for him to shoot the witch
-scum has to use a consort block on Domri Rade to prevent investigations. WIFOM lookout on Domri and we can figure out who a mafia member might be and/or continue to have successful sheriff results.

How will Glissa die then? She is of the darkness and has no place in the light.

[FM Ravi Sengir]

I almost forgot-

-vote FM Glissa Sunseeker

If we lynch her, we either:
1. Eliminate a scum and confirm a sheriff
2. Eliminate a townie, but confirm a liar (or the existence of a framer).

In either case we gain information.

[FM Nicol Bolas]

Ok Ive seen this one too many times to jump onto this sheriff claiming he found super scum this early on period It goes something like this colon
fake sheriff dash Hey him super scum period
town dash choo choo
lynch victim dash wut me innocent
fake sheriff dash if Im wrong you can lynch me tomorrow period
town dash choo choo
lynch victim - dies a horrible death and flips town
dash next day dash
town dash fake sheriff could be a jester ploy
real sheriffs and real invests dash wont check him because of obvious frame targets
fake sheriff - he must have been framed of bus driven or maybe I was witched
town - focuses on new person and forgets about fake sheriff

So yeah comma Im a little scketical about this sheriffs luck comma I dont trust PRs who reveal so early but then again I dont trust PRs who reveal to defend themselves cough mr fake medic cough period

Before anything else however comma I want mr witchiness to tell us exactly what she did last night period

There was one hundred and twelve posts when I started writting this and have not read any new posts since period

On a side note comma Im not at home this weekend and am using a friends laptop comma which is very annoying since I dont have a mouse comma my settings comma or my notes on my pc braket even though I didnt have many notes from day 1 braket

[FM Chandra Nalaar]

Come on people. I have to go soon. I will give my vote to whoever gives me my best answer.

[FM Parcher]

Shooting Nicol tonight.

[FM Baltrice]

Ok Ive seen this one too many times to jump onto this sheriff claiming he found super scum this early on period It goes something like this colon
fake sheriff dash Hey him super scum period
town dash choo choo
lynch victim dash wut me innocent
fake sheriff dash if Im wrong you can lynch me tomorrow period
town dash choo choo
lynch victim - dies a horrible death and flips town
dash next day dash
town dash fake sheriff could be a jester ploy
real sheriffs and real invests dash wont check him because of obvious frame targets
fake sheriff - he must have been framed of bus driven or maybe I was witched
town - focuses on new person and forgets about fake sheriff

So yeah comma Im a little scketical about this sheriffs luck comma I dont trust PRs who reveal so early but then again I dont trust PRs who reveal to defend themselves cough mr fake medic cough period

Before anything else however comma I want mr witchiness to tell us exactly what she did last night period

There was one hundred and twelve posts when I started writting this and have not read any new posts since period

On a side note comma Im not at home this weekend and am using a friends laptop comma which is very annoying since I dont have a mouse comma my settings comma or my notes on my pc braket even though I didnt have many notes from day 1 braket

This isn't sc2mafia.

[FM Domri Rade]

Come on people. I have to go soon. I will give my vote to whoever gives me my best answer.

Whoring your vote out is a terrible idea. Using the light before it is extinguished is a high calling. Using the light to gimp the shades this early can only help the town.

Shooting Nicol tonight.

Are you claiming you are the light's bringer of death?

[FM Tessebik]

Ok Ive seen this one too many times to jump onto this sheriff claiming he found super scum this early on period It goes something like this colon
fake sheriff dash Hey him super scum period
town dash choo choo
lynch victim dash wut me innocent
fake sheriff dash if Im wrong you can lynch me tomorrow period
town dash choo choo
lynch victim - dies a horrible death and flips town
dash next day dash
town dash fake sheriff could be a jester ploy
real sheriffs and real invests dash wont check him because of obvious frame targets
fake sheriff - he must have been framed of bus driven or maybe I was witched
town - focuses on new person and forgets about fake sheriff

So yeah comma Im a little scketical about this sheriffs luck comma I dont trust PRs who reveal so early but then again I dont trust PRs who reveal to defend themselves cough mr fake medic cough period

Before anything else however comma I want mr witchiness to tell us exactly what she did last night period

There was one hundred and twelve posts when I started writting this and have not read any new posts since period

On a side note comma Im not at home this weekend and am using a friends laptop comma which is very annoying since I dont have a mouse comma my settings comma or my notes on my pc braket even though I didnt have many notes from day 1 braket

That's a heck of a risk to take with a hypothetical vigilante in the game...

[FM Nicol Bolas]

Vig is not hypothetical comma he is comfirmed period

[FM Sandruu]

Elspeth's case is common. Could certainly be witch. It could also be a direct ploy of WIFOM. I don't find any reason why she would out herself right at day 1. So I certainly don't believe she is Witch, but still needs to be checked.

[FM Tibalt]

Vig is not hypothetical comma he is comfirmed period

I do not see how he is confirmed at all.

[FM Sandruu]

I do not see how he is confirmed at all.

Extremist...is listed in the Role List

[FM Dack Fayden]

Analysis of the night kills:

FM Tamiyo
Green Mafia killed and cleaned FM Tamiyo (and spent 2 night actions doing so):

I've read through the previous and find one post extremely disconcerting, I won't tell you what it is atm, I will probably not be around for a bit.

FM Tamiyo indicates she is holding something back. A post to pique interest in her, but probably not the reason she was killed.

I'd like to assert this line of discussion is useless atm, I'd like to urge a single citizen to step forward, so we can then proceed to discuss other options.

FM Tamiyo makes a really priestly sounding comment. Mark my words, this is why FM Tamiyo was killed.

Implications: FM Tamiyo may have been Priest, however conversions come before death and FM Tamiyo was in favor of the plan to recruit FM Sarkhan Vol. Therefore I infer that the orange mafia picked an enforcer.

Reactions: Green mafia will push for Glissa's lynch today, knowing that the priest is possibly dead and might not be able to purge Glissa. I'm asking in the Q&A if they would know with any certainty if it is so. -> people pushing for Glissa's lynch should be suspected of being green mafia.


FM Gideon Jura
Orange mafia killed Gideon Jura with no cleaning, just used one night action on this.

...
Joseph Bertrand
Cop
Investigator
Extremist
Medic
Detainer
Priest
Coroner
Random Power Militia (Gunsmith/Armorsmith)
Random Power Militia (Bus driver)
Random Power Militia (Veteran)
Random Power Militia (Lookout)
Random Power Militia (Bodyguard)
Random Power Militia (Detective)
Militia Member X9
My thoughts on the roles list. I will reveal the Vermaak 88 roles after their roles are chosen.

Posted thoughts on the role list. I bet orange mafia killed him because they thought he was one of the town power roles that he listed in the town section. OR he also says that there is a revolutionist under his killing neutral.

My idea;

Step 1: Two Citizens must step up each day.
Step 2: Mason converts one of them
Step 3: Medic must anti cult one of them
Step 4: ???
Step 5: Win

Could have seemed vaguely pro-priest-who-didn't-read-setup here (not knowing enforcer has 2 targets) or pro-revolutionist.

Implications: Orange mafia killed Gideon because he seemed like a revolutionist or one of the TPR that he put on his role list.


[size=5]What the kills tell us about the mafia night actions:[/color]
Cole MacGrath - kill FM Tamiyo
Zeke Dunbar - ?
Lucy Kuo - ?
Nix - clean FM Tamiyo
Vermaak 88 - Enforcer - enforce FM Sarkhan Vol & ?
Vermaak 88 - Kidnapper? - ?(but can't be sent to kill)
Vermaak 88 - ?? - sent to kill FM Gideon Jura
Vermaak 88 - ?? - ??

[FM Baltrice]

Dack, I would agree with your choice of lynch if it were not for the fact that Jester is both a possibility and basing off the posts of the person in question a good likelihood. Claiming Witch like this seems to have been a very good tactic in that regard. I would rather have a vigi shoot her and have us lynch Glissa which results in the exact same information that you propose we would get.

[FM Dack Fayden]

People currently on Glissa:

FM Glissa Sunseeker (6 [L-12]):
FM Domri Rade, FM Sifa Grent, FM Baltrice, FM Parcher, FM Jace Beleren, FM Ravi Sengir

At least one of them is probably green mafia who is more worried about the threat of the reapers since they believe to have killed the Priest last night. FM Domri Rade can be sheriff until proven otherwise because I don't see why Zeke would reveal a possible Sasha when it could result in him getting lynched if he's wrong. FM Sifa Grent is amnesiac. Therefore, FM Baltrice, FM Parcher, FM Jace Beleren, FM Ravi Sengir seem like possible green mafias.

[FM Sandruu]

Dack, I would agree with your choice of lynch if it were not for the fact that Jester is both a possibility and basing off the posts of the person in question a good likelihood. Claiming Witch like this seems to have been a very good tactic in that regard. I would rather have a vigi shoot her and have us lynch Glissa which results in the exact same information that you propose we would get.

Although it seems quite unlikely that Elspeth would be a jester.

[FM Dack Fayden]

Dack, I would agree with your choice of lynch if it were not for the fact that Jester is both a possibility and basing off the posts of the person in question a good likelihood. Claiming Witch like this seems to have been a very good tactic in that regard. I would rather have a vigi shoot her and have us lynch Glissa which results in the exact same information that you propose we would get.

Hey this is just my opinion. I think the likelihood of Elspeth being a jester is low just because of this situation exactly where she could be a huge target for town killing roles.

[FM Baltrice]

Dack, Valid deductions but I feel like they are less than accurate.
I have a few questions about the analysis and the follow up.

The post in which you state sounds priestly would be more valid if she was the one who came up with the plan to have a Citizen step up and reveal. However she did not, as I believe Jace was the one with that plan. The tone of that post you quoted instead reads to be annoyed with the current plan and simply wished to move on to more suitable conversation. This is supported by the ending of her post "so we can then proceed to discuss other options."
Would you disagree?

[FM Parcher]

Are you claiming you are the light's bringer of death?

For 1 night

[FM Baltrice]

Dack, why do you put down that the kidnapper cannot be sent to kill?
Where did you get this information?

[FM Ravi Sengir]

Now, to speculate on Vermaak 88 roles.

Possible roles:
Kidnapper - A highly likely pick. It's basically an unstoppable consort that also gets one kill. If they're smart, there is no way they didn't get a kidnapper, and if they didn't get one, then we should rejoice because it means they've wasted a role slot.

Janitor - I doubt they took one of these. 3 charges just isn't enough to justify choosing it. Plus there were two kills last night, but only one cleaning (which was a burn, ie. conduits' clean). They could have simply not used a cleaning last night, but I think choosing a role that can only do 3 things at best is not a wise decision.

Framer - This particular iteration of the framer is quite powerful. It can frame two people per night or it can choose to do nothing and be immune to detection. I would bet they have one of these for sure.

Consigliere - I think this iteration of the consig is weak and not worth choosing. It only gets the investigation pairing, which isn't all that useful to the Vermaaks, and it only gets the exact role if it targets the same person twice, which is horribly inefficient.

Consort - My guess is that they have a consort. Even though they already have a kidnapper for roleblocks, why not have two roleblocks? Since they can't choose a second kidnapper, the second blocker must be a consort. And why not? She even gets detection immunity while blocking.

Sapper - No way they have one of these. Live2Die roles are horrible for scum factions whose whole mission is to survive. Especially with this one, given that its ability is a complete gamble. I really hope I'm wrong, though, because if they picked this they will have another useless member who will eventually kill himself for us if we don't kill him first.

Disguiser - There is a very remote possibility that the cleaning from last night was actually a disguiser, but since disguising on night one is stupid, and I like to assume my adversaries are generally intelligent, I doubt this is the case. However, there could still be a disguiser out there. But again, this is a case where I feel that they would be gimping themselves by choosing this role. It can only act once, which means they lose out on the consistent power that other roles would bring. Plus, its best usage is as an escape when caught/accused as scum, but if found during the day, could easily get lynched before getting to disguise, meaning another useless role. So I doubt this will be in the game.

Enforcer - The most likely fourth pick, imo. More for its passive ability than for anything. These guys have 4 members to start, and in order to win, at least one of them needs to survive and remain Vermaaak 88 aligned. The last thing they want is for a reaper to come along and recruit one of their guys. This would actually be particularly devastating since he could betray them and tell the reapers all of their plans and identities. So my guess is that they took an enforcer so that they wouldn't have to worry about it. Plus, this allows them to actively try to shut down the reapers (and the preists) with the Enforcer's night action.


Willbender - Too risky to be chosen, I think. Could just as easily lure a killer as a doctor. And in most cases I think this team will want to avoid being targeted, so I don't think it would be wise to choose a role that would force someone to target a member. Though it would be amusing if they chose this role and it managed to lure Sasha.

In short, I think the Vermaak 88 team is:

Kidnapper
Framer
Consort
Enforcer

[FM Ravi Sengir]

Oops, I'm dumb, last night's cleaning was a burn as I pointed out earlier in the post. Defintiely not a disguiser. wtf, brain.

[FM Ral Zarek]

hey guys nothing happened to me last night.
not good that it had to hit the bd

@sheriff claim
i doubt that this is an exe strategy, would be too obvious. anyway, can you explain why you choose to reveal so early?

-vote FM Glissa Sunseeker

for now i'm adding pressure, i ask you to roleclaim

[FM Ravi Sengir]

Can Vermaak 88 members be sent for the factional kill in addition to using their regular night actions?

[Slaol]

Can Vermaak 88 members be sent for the factional kill in addition to using their regular night actions?

no

[FM Ravi Sengir]

Can Vermaak 88 members be sent for the factional kill in addition to using their regular night actions?

Actually no, bad question. More specific version:

Can the Kidnapper be sent for the factional kill while he has someone captive?

[FM Ral Zarek]

oh well he claimed already, i rushed the post out too fast

[FM Nicol Bolas]

Ok back to obvious questions that no one has bothered to ask period

There were two victims last night and we know we have at least three killing scums period Did the third fail his kill comma is a delayed kill comma didnt or couldnt kill or was there a double kill question mark

[FM Ugin]

Ugin gets up after a good night sleep. He comes over to see a lot of commotion and starts to figure out what is going on.

[FM Nicol Bolas]

Im off for now comma might read the forums on my phone but dont plan on posting from it period

[FM Ravi Sengir]

Ok back to obvious questions that no one has bothered to ask period

There were two victims last night and we know we have at least three killing scums period Did the third fail his kill comma is a delayed kill comma didnt or couldnt kill or was there a double kill question mark

Methinks we have an arsonist in our midst.