S-FM 353: Death Nominations

[bakermir]

Residents of Hell,

I will be your cook today.

[bakermir]

[bakermir]

so far

[bakermir]

I forgot how to post gifs nooooooooooooo

[bakermir]

https://www.tickcounter.com/countdow...2/my-countdown

22 hours left.

[bakermir]

Forum Mafia - The legendary long-form of Mafia. Good luck to you masochists who play this!

[ikarusdk]

sorry guys if im not all present, i have my aviation flight test today so very busy. Will be around tomorrow much more.

[MartinGG99]

sorry guys if im not all present, i have my aviation flight test today so very busy. Will be around tomorrow much more.

good luck!

[tutuu]

Why are you so good ;)

[tutuu]

I may have forgotten that day phases are 24 hours and that totally bodes well for my day-to-day activity in a busy weekend.

I should be fine, though it may be some level of wise to have me to do the first nomination if everyone goes crazy with the posting.

are u advocating for urself to get chopped?

[tutuu]

My school starts in two weeks. Freshman

pog, what are you studying?

[tutuu]

I used to do either, not both in a single game

nowadays p much on discord since hosts have to know the discords of every player and discord hubs for (all) players are more common

i hate discord hubs im traumatized by boomer hosts on syndicate fucking them up

[tutuu]

actually no. I was right.

D1 6v3 - eliminated town - worst scenario
D2 5v3 - eliminated town - worst scenario
D3 4v3 - eliminated town - worst scenario
D4 4v2 - guaranteed mafia elimination unless there are two or more mafia in: baker, tutuu, martin, ikarus and varcron. If mafia=0 or =1 then this will work.
D5 3v2 - If mafia nominates all 3 town - this will be guaranteed town elim. This will be very risky for mafia to do, but it still doesn't lose them the game with 1(t)v2(m) on the chopping board.

whats the point of putting in this effort based off the assumption that no more than 1 mafia had posted at the time you said so?

[tutuu]

Receiving your rolecard via pm is aesthetically pleasing tho

gotta agree. when i see that notification bell and i see a beautiful colored name rolecard with picture and all - that just hits the spot

[tutuu]

Nya

you told me that sc2 forum is about low post count quality over quantity. look how fol corrupted u

[tutuu]

baker is probably town because he's excited to play the game

and i know he's not w/w with me, which he said he would enjoy playing

if he was wolfing against me would he have this much fun? idk maybe. i haven't seen him wolf. but gut says he doesn't know that i'm town

those arbitrary posts of his where he suggests arbitrary stuff like "no more than 1 wolf posted" and then thinking stuff further while accepting that his assumption to be right or him writing out strategies and stuff - i dont understand almost any of it but it's behavior he's shown as town. unless someone wants to tell me he mimics that as wolf perfectly - id say baker so far is representing a standard baker town game

[scumbot5679]

this does sorta seem like a not his scumplay from last game but the hyper fluff posting is pretty annoying. I'm going to send in a vig shot and hope the mof forgets that im vanilla.

[scumbot5679]

-vote lol

you aren't funny

[MartinGG99]

are u advocating for urself to get chopped?

sc2 d1's historically are not great or very productive (though that has changed a mild bit for the better over the past few years)

hence if we were ever concerned about an unproductive / unrevealing chop -- especially considering its only 24 hours, and future days will continue that -- it might be best to chop someone who's at risk of not producing much in future day phases and those who are more productive will have more to work with by EoD2


I don't advocate for my chop unless I have significant incentive/reasoning to do so, but I do tend to keep it under consideration from time to time.

[MartinGG99]

My face-value impression is that this baker was different from the one he subbed into for me when I was hosting Mini Fooling Party.

I figure though there'll be some chance for error though in comparing the two. Ones much more mech-heavy than the other, and also can involve more speculation and reasoning than the other.

[MartinGG99]

-vote scumbot5679

[Wiml]

Hey folks, it's been a minute since I last played a game here.

Lack of activity is already a pretty big concern here given the 24 hour phase lengths and some setup quirks I'll discuss later. I know this site's meta often has pretty unproductive D1s from my understanding but I'd urge people in this specific setup to really try to devote the time dig in as early as possible if they're able to.

(And yeah, that's hypocritical of me to say in my very first post but SoD was in the middle of the night for me so shush).

[Wiml]

I very much have my pride on the line with winning this game.

[Wiml]

I wonder how many people signed up or reserved not realizing its 24 hours.

Its very rare for our site to have that lol, and despite me reading the setup a while back I still managed to forget it.

Yeah, this is something that worried me a little but I ultimately hope and will assume that most people read the signup.

My bigger concern is that people signed up knowing it was a 24/0 but still have only the same few hours to devote every offline day as they would for a 48/24 due to commitments, leading to a game with nowhere near the amount of activity actually needed for the tasks that we need to accomplish in this setup.

Hence my early activity push which is something I'd also suggest others push for.

[Wiml]

But if we take everyone as town

Mafia
Mafia d4
Mafia d3
Town d2
Town d1

Town (ikarus)
Town (varcron)
Town (martin)
Town (tutuu)
Town (baker)

We always eliminate a mafia by D4 even if one of the posters is mafia.

If there are two ore more posters from mafia then town loses.

Could you go into some more detail about what made you go down this train of thought?

Not this post itself but what thoughts made you actually want to make it in the first place.

[Wiml]

baker is probably town because he's excited to play the game

and i know he's not w/w with me, which he said he would enjoy playing

if he was wolfing against me would he have this much fun? idk maybe. i haven't seen him wolf. but gut says he doesn't know that i'm town

those arbitrary posts of his where he suggests arbitrary stuff like "no more than 1 wolf posted" and then thinking stuff further while accepting that his assumption to be right or him writing out strategies and stuff - i dont understand almost any of it but it's behavior he's shown as town. unless someone wants to tell me he mimics that as wolf perfectly - id say baker so far is representing a standard baker town game

This makes sense and lines up pretty well with my initial impressions of Baker too. While far from clearing, I think his early WIM / excited attitude is a plus and he seems very different otoh to how I remember him playing the one recent time I've seen him in a game (as a wolf) although I'll need to refresh myself on that game later.

The bolded is appreciated since the weird/spammy posts were something I'd had some concerns with and learning that it's something that he does as town eases that concern.

[Wiml]

@tuutuu how well do you know baker? Would you say you have a good read on them, meta-wise?

I've seen you in a game together before but I don't remember much about how you interacted otoh.

[Wiml]

@tuutuu how well do you know baker? Would you say you have a good read on them, meta-wise?

I've seen you in a game together before but I don't remember much about how you interacted otoh.

@tutuu whoops

[Wiml]

@bakermir mind linking some good / relevant games of yours as both alignments?

Don't link Mini Fooling Party please I don't really care about lost wolf games.

[lol]

In other words; 5 townies finds each other = game will be over for mafia

big ask

best i can give you is 1

[lol]

baker seems town that's all i got and agree with the masses

i caught some kinda flu yesterday hoping its not covid but there's about 80% chance it is

eating some limes with sugar then i'll sleep hopefully i can sleep it off a little and feel better

[lol]

i will say though barker was really excited about being mafia with me too so there's an offchance baker just loves being mafia with everyone and will be excited regardless who he's with

[Wiml]

The number of villagers that need to find each other is actually only 4, not 5, even if we assume that we always miselim the day after voting a wolf.

So basically, people just need to self clear and find three consensus confident and correct townreads. It's not at all a difficult setup to crack open if people are willing and able to put that effort in.

[Wiml]

i will say though barker was really excited about being mafia with me too so there's an offchance baker just loves being mafia with everyone and will be excited regardless who he's with

Mind linking the game?

[Wiml]

Wrt ikarus, I can verify that the mobile discord bug exists and I'm just going to take it at face value that he was posting without a role for those first couple of posts and completely disregard them from a gameplay perspective.

He's not somebody I expect to be difficult to read later on anyway, assuming he has the time to put good effort in when he returns.

[tutuu]

I very much have my pride on the line with winning this game.

how come?

[tutuu]

Yeah, this is something that worried me a little but I ultimately hope and will assume that most people read the signup.

My bigger concern is that people signed up knowing it was a 24/0 but still have only the same few hours to devote every offline day as they would for a 48/24 due to commitments, leading to a game with nowhere near the amount of activity actually needed for the tasks that we need to accomplish in this setup.

Hence my early activity push which is something I'd also suggest others push for.

yeah if we wanna win we gotta be active, ngl i didnt see day phases are 24h lmao, also not to be too pessimistic but im already feeling pessimistic. at least for day 1, we're almost halfway done and there's like nothing

[tutuu]

@tuutuu how well do you know baker? Would you say you have a good read on them, meta-wise?

I've seen you in a game together before but I don't remember much about how you interacted otoh.

i played a couple games with town him, never seen him wolf. i dont own his soul or anything and im not infallible but i think he's lookin towny here

[tutuu]

so who's mafia guys?

(don't ask me, i'm the one asking the questions bish)

[bakermir]

pog, what are you studying?

Economics :joy_nerd:

i hate discord hubs im traumatized by boomer hosts on syndicate fucking them up

LMAO

whats the point of putting in this effort based off the assumption that no more than 1 mafia had posted at the time you said so?

I was calculating out loud. I also have a tendency to break the player list into segments and figure out where to pay attention, analyzing potential pathways the setup has. Similar to what I do with postcount groupings on FoL, and it has been 100% successful so far, BUT! I am not yet proficient at fully utilizing it to my advantage

you told me that sc2 forum is about low post count quality over quantity. look how fol corrupted u

I have caught the Nya pox.

It's so over.

baker is probably town because he's excited to play the game

and i know he's not w/w with me, which he said he would enjoy playing

if he was wolfing against me would he have this much fun? idk maybe. i haven't seen him wolf. but gut says he doesn't know that i'm town

those arbitrary posts of his where he suggests arbitrary stuff like "no more than 1 wolf posted" and then thinking stuff further while accepting that his assumption to be right or him writing out strategies and stuff - i dont understand almost any of it but it's behavior he's shown as town. unless someone wants to tell me he mimics that as wolf perfectly - id say baker so far is representing a standard baker town game

I haven't played a game in which tutuu was Mafia, but she once mentioned how she snowed JaggedJimmyJay, which should serve as a good heads up for the rest of us. Now that I've planted the seeds of paranoia, I must admit tutuu hasn't done anything that would ping me yet. This particular post is more likely to come from town tutuu that I know. She is demonstrating good reasoning and progress in terms of how my icebreaker and rvs posts could be read. Another note on tutuu, she has always managed to make at least one post where she soulreads something about me and this time it might be this.

Her interactions with others match her town spirit i.e. questioning Martin's thoughts on being chopped and pointed out how polarized I am. While this alone may not be a strong indicator of their alignment, it is one of the metrics I will keep an eye on.

[Wiml]

how come?

I very much have a stake in this game for selfish / personal reasons.

Partly due to the setup being nightless and partly due to feeling a tonne of self pressure to perform for longwinded reasons that I won't try to type out here atm.

To expand on the nightless bit: the tl;dr is that since there's not traditional nightkills in this game, there's no likely refuge in being removed from the game if the game is going poorly, even if as an individual you might be doing everything else right. So if the ship is sinking, anyone left alive (not already killed by town killpower) goes down with the ship and that is basically my worst nightmare scenario to be alive in during a mafia game. In fact, being alive in a losing endgame is probably THE nightmare scenario for me in almost any town game I play and in a setup like this that's way more likely than it otherwise would be.

Given that I almost always feel a personal direct responsibility for how well we do as a team, certainly at least for as long as I'm alive, there's absolutely no way that I'm allowing this game to become a sinking ship situation for as long as I'm alive. Hence why the pressure is on for me as a matter of pride (in addition to wanting to win for general reasons, obviously).

[tutuu]

IVE BEEN TRYING SO HARD TO CHANGE MY AVATAR I THOUGHT SHIT'S BUGGED mfw there's profile picture AND avatar and those are 2 separate things

[tutuu]

I very much have a stake in this game for selfish / personal reasons.

Partly due to the setup being nightless and partly due to feeling a tonne of self pressure to perform for longwinded reasons that I won't try to type out here atm.

To expand on the nightless bit: the tl;dr is that since there's not traditional nightkills in this game, there's no likely refuge in being removed from the game if the game is going poorly, even if as an individual you might be doing everything else right. So if the ship is sinking, anyone left alive (not already killed by town killpower) goes down with the ship and that is basically my worst nightmare scenario to be alive in during a mafia game. In fact, being alive in a losing endgame is probably THE nightmare scenario for me in almost any town game I play and in a setup like this that's way more likely than it otherwise would be.

Given that I almost always feel a personal direct responsibility for how well we do as a team, certainly at least for as long as I'm alive, there's absolutely no way that I'm allowing this game to become a sinking ship situation for as long as I'm alive. Hence why the pressure is on for me as a matter of pride (in addition to wanting to win for general reasons, obviously).

damn this person is out here to WIN i better step up my GAME

[tutuu]

Economics :joy_nerd:



LMAO



I was calculating out loud. I also have a tendency to break the player list into segments and figure out where to pay attention, analyzing potential pathways the setup has. Similar to what I do with postcount groupings on FoL, and it has been 100% successful so far, BUT! I am not yet proficient at fully utilizing it to my advantage



I have caught the Nya pox.

It's so over.



I haven't played a game in which tutuu was Mafia, but she once mentioned how she snowed JaggedJimmyJay, which should serve as a good heads up for the rest of us. Now that I've planted the seeds of paranoia, I must admit tutuu hasn't done anything that would ping me yet. This particular post is more likely to come from town tutuu that I know. She is demonstrating good reasoning and progress in terms of how my icebreaker and rvs posts could be read. Another note on tutuu, she has always managed to make at least one post where she soulreads something about me and this time it might be this.

Her interactions with others match her town spirit i.e. questioning Martin's thoughts on being chopped and pointed out how polarized I am. While this alone may not be a strong indicator of their alignment, it is one of the metrics I will keep an eye on.

hell yea we out here getting that bag baby calculate those fat stacks of cash $$$

[Wiml]

i played a couple games with town him, never seen him wolf. i dont own his soul or anything and im not infallible but i think he's lookin towny here

Good to know, thanks.

[Wiml]

baker seems town that's all i got and agree with the masses

i caught some kinda flu yesterday hoping its not covid but there's about 80% chance it is

eating some limes with sugar then i'll sleep hopefully i can sleep it off a little and feel better

I missed this earlier but I hope you get better soon!

[Wiml]

-vote Varcron

[bakermir]

I don't advocate for my chop unless I have significant incentive/reasoning to do so, but I do tend to keep it under consideration from time to time.

I have to say I share the same sentiment. I will be active for the majority of the game, but if something happens that is going to take my FM time away, I would be willing to offer myself as a potential chop on next days. This might create some interesting discussions about thread controlled nominations. I mean, we can certainly discuss nominations in a general sense, but I don't think I need to elaborate further on the differences for post-flips and reading back the thread with new info.

My face-value impression is that this baker was different from the one he subbed into for me when I was hosting Mini Fooling Party.

I figure though there'll be some chance for error though in comparing the two. Ones much more mech-heavy than the other, and also can involve more speculation and reasoning than the other.

yeah :joy_cat:

I tend to be too polarized, and those who are familiar with me can quickly spot my tendencies. I am glad that I am easy to find as both alignments since I am quite mid at FM, and I will probably throw your game at FX. It would be so cool to win a game for once though...

[bakermir]

I will be back later and attend to the remaining posts.

oh and I don't like being labeled as annoying; I believe that comment was somewhat unwarranted.

-vote scumbot5679

[Wiml]

sc2 d1's historically are not great or very productive (though that has changed a mild bit for the better over the past few years)

hence if we were ever concerned about an unproductive / unrevealing chop -- especially considering its only 24 hours, and future days will continue that -- it might be best to chop someone who's at risk of not producing much in future day phases and those who are more productive will have more to work with by EoD2


I don't advocate for my chop unless I have significant incentive/reasoning to do so, but I do tend to keep it under consideration from time to time.

From what little I know about Martin as a player, the mentality of being pretty unphased about dying to town kp and being willing to do so if he thinks it benefits whatever team he's on is something that I buy him genuinely believing in even if I don't necessarily agree with what he's saying here.

It's also not something I'd expect Martin, who I believe is a pretty solid wolf, to necessarily be willing to offer out of the gate when it's likely that in most potential wolf teams in this lobby he would be likely to perceive himself as one of the stronger wolves and / or one of the most likely to survive to endgame and win out of almost any wolf team.

Given that aorn it's very likely that most of the wolves are concentrated in the less active players, the above seems especially apparent. It's hard to imagine a world where wolf-Martin expresses willingness to do if his partners were two people who were just likely to minpost, for example, due to the fact that he would likely be expected to follow through on that later into the game if pushed instead of vocally fighting to survive.

Tl;dr he's not really approaching the game in a way I'd expect from somebody I perceive to be a more endgame-focused wolf.

Plus, expressing willingness to die unprompted is >rand town in a vacuum as well.