ika coaching MM, the student has surpassed the master
Basically tldr doesn't matter if the person wolf-Death scans is a member of the mafia because it still closes their options off and if Death tries to call you w/w with their teammate and the teammate is townier than Death, Death will get voted anyway.
Or just
The scan will help anyway to some degree, there's way too many ifs and buts and moving parts and it's too late here fir me to consider every one but the scan will always be a new positive to town regardless of what alignment Death is.
I'm not making it look like you're not making sense, I'm saying you slipped lmao.
@Vittae how does the scan help us if Deathworlds is scum? In that world, he could even be something that isn't investigator.
Skip is at L-2, please don't hammer it as more time to go over mech and look at players would be useful
Well gents, unless there's something else you need me for, I'll consider slipping in my not-so-hot but still deliciously comfortable bed
Let's imagine an oversimplified world with nothing that could affect the scan for convenience sake.
If Death is a wolf and he comes back tomorrow saying I'm a wolf for example, it would only take one of me and Deb to be villagery in order to get Death killed.
If Death comes back calling somebody town, that person can't be Deb's partner. We could force Death to check, say, Deb's most likely wolf partner and then that's a difficult commitment for Death to make.
That's the theory anyway, roles screwing with the results might make it harder for us in this setup but it's still a net positive.
And even if the scan if useless the extra confirmed villager from the death (nobody at this point is guaranteed to be town including myself from an objective standpoint so it's a positive if I die) and the potential for a wolf to die from poison make sleep worth it.
I mean, if you're town, there isn't much I can do to prove that I'm genuine, and if you're scum, you do whatever you want anyway, so evil or skill issue :P
Considering the situation, that is indeed how it looks; but in this case, why should we skip?
Going to bed, night all.
Current situation
Confirmed dead
PoD - citizen
Varcron - town PR (tailored?)
Citizen claims (one of them is scum)
Mizery
MM
Vittae
PR claims (one of them is scum)
ikarusdk
loldebite - claims snitch
deathworld - claims investigator (claims loldebte scanned tailor)
SET UP summary - From this we know, 3 citizens and 3 Town PR and 2 scum PR.
One scum in citizen claim, one scum in PR claim
Although it IS POSSIBLE we have 4 citizens and 2 town PR, it is less likely as currently either death/lol is not telling the truth.
IF WE SKIP
Night kill speculation (1)
Kills ikarusdk
and the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf)
NK speculation (2)
Kills one citizen
and the next day
Citizen claim 2 people (50% to find wolf)
PR claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
NK speculation (3)
Kills either death/lol
and the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf - but then I know exactly who the wolf is so it becomes me vs the other PR)
IF WE LYNCH DEATH/LOL
and we mislynch and they kill me
the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 1 people (100% chance to find wolf)
and we mislynch and they kill one citizen claim
the next day
Citizen claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf but then I know exactly who the wolf is so it becomes me vs the other PR)
we lynch successfully
the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims are confirmed.
Which of the scenario is beneficial to town, SKIP or we LYNCH
Whether or I die or not tonight, I think we need to lynch death or lol.
Ikarus if we miskill there is no tomorrow, wolves win, lol
PLS disregard my last post
sad face
Now i sound wolfy af because i pushed for lynch that could result in wolves winning
what's super goofy is somewhere, somehow, people started conflating the investigator as an alignment cop, of which it is not, it's a role cop.
I'm usually very sceptical of F5 crossvotes being w/w (especially after losing champs finals F5 with a correct wolf team to a bus and some heavy AtE) but in this case I think it's hard to justify this cross being w/w.
If Death and Deb were w/w then the setup would have only 2 town power roles - a Chemist and a Bartender. That would mean one of our PR slots was a VT and one of our PR slots was a useless role so we would only have one "real" town power role.
I think this is pretty unlikely and I also think two wolves in MM/ikarus/Miz is pretty unlikely as well.
So this is almost never a bussing scenario.
Ignore this, I got confused as I was thinking about them being t/t as I also don't think that's true.
Partially for the bolded reason and partially because they soft-counterclaim each other with their roles even ignoring Death's result.
If they're t/t then the team would need to be ikarus + either Miz or MM as ikarus is confirmed wolf in those worlds as a 4th PR claim.
Going to be posting a lot of IIoA still, my actual thoughts from now will be in my will if I die or posted D5 if I'm alive.
@ikarusdk I don't think you answered my question from before.
Varcron soft-counterclaimed you in their role claim yesterday when they said they were a useless town PR. Why did you townread Varcron for their claim given that you yourself are a useless town PR, didn't it strike you as odd that there would be multiple?
Because we have three town PR roles, and since I know mine is detrimental, when Varcron claimed his role as similar to mine, I did not think it was that weird. As mine is an utility/deception role, I guessed his one would be either a killing or another deception.
Also I thought he could be a citizen pretending yo be a PR to draw heat.
Either case, I townread him
Also I townread him since day 1
Disregard last sentence, I was writing and editing on the phone and that last one is what I had originally
Doubtful we have a setup with a town investigator and town bartender and no mafia investigator/scout/tracker.
If Death/ikarus are t/t then the mafia team power roles are probably one <framer or bartender> or and one <tracker or scout or investigator>.
If Death is town and ikarus mafia I'd expect Deb to be the likely mafia investigative role and ikarus to be the bartender.
So it is worth noting that if Deb is a wolf and Death is town then if Deb flipped and has a role that isn't framer or bartender then the remaining mafia member is the one capable of messing up Death's results and must be exactly a mafia bartender.
At which point the explicit existence of a mafia-aligned bartender in a game with one player claiming town bartender is hard to ignore and ikarus should be looked at carefully.
Tl;dr Wolf-Deb flipping not tailor/Bartender implies a mafia bartender exists and implicates ikarus. Keep in mind if I'm dead.
Thanks, didn't you think it was weird that there were two different useless power roles though? You knew that the setup only had 2-3 power roles at the time so did the thought genuinely never come to mind that it was very difficult to fit both your role and their expected one in this setup?
I would expect almost anybody as town in your position to have at least some doubts internally about Varcron's claim, I'm surprised you seem to have none at all.