S-FM 296 Simple Arsonist II

[Frinckles]

I believe frinkles would have ignited because of how good Marsh is at sniffing people out. I'm newer to FM than he is by a massive longshot, so it would be easier to argue with me than argue with him, easy.

I literally argued with MM all of last game and he townread me this game..

[Varcron]

I literally argued with MM all of last game and he townread me this game..

He did, but if you killed let's say me or stealth instead of him, he would've been able to trace it back to you like I did. Marsh is a massive threat on either side, especially to a solo scum, I'm not as large of a threat for obvious reasons.

[Frinckles]

I was putting pressure on the slot so that he would wake up, I had no hard intentions to lynch stealth there, or you; I just wanted to hear from both sides instead of just one.

That's why I'm trying to see if you were fencesitting. The only other thing you said the rest of that day was this:

I agree, I hate having to get this far into the details to narrow down my scum reads (especially knowing that there's one scum, and i have two reads)

That could be you pivoting for today if you had known you were killing MM that night.

[Frinckles]

He did, but if you killed let's say me or stealth instead of him, he would've been able to trace it back to you like I did. Marsh is a massive threat on either side, especially to a solo scum, I'm not as large of a threat for obvious reasons.

To be honest, that gives more credence to an Arsonist Varcron.

[Varcron]

That's why I'm trying to see if you were fencesitting. The only other thing you said the rest of that day was this:



That could be you pivoting for today if you had known you were killing MM that night.

And it could also mean that I have to examine both of my reads, like I did for a fair while last night. You're trying to pick out tiny threads and very loose things and weave them into a conspiracy theory.

[Frinckles]

Hah, I was probably doused n0, time to die n1

While I look over what SB pointed out, this is what bothered me the most about your play this game Varcron.

Even if I considered your push on toad to be organic, your entrance literally implies that there would be a n1 ignition. Why wouldn't you believe an Arsonist would douse multiple targets before igniting?

[Varcron]

To be honest, that gives more credence to an Arsonist Varcron.

Diverging off of this post for a moment, take a look at this Stealth. Immediately after I was called out by you with your points, Frinkles hops on the train without second thought. That by itself is basically admitting to wanting either of us dead and not caring who it is.

[Frinckles]

And it could also mean that I have to examine both of my reads, like I did for a fair while last night. You're trying to pick out tiny threads and very loose things and weave them into a conspiracy theory.

I'm not trying to nit-pick and I don't really think I am. It's fair to re-evaluate my own reads, no?

[Varcron]

While I look over what SB pointed out, this is what bothered me the most about your play this game Varcron.

Even if I considered your push on toad to be organic, your entrance literally implies that there would be a n1 ignition. Why wouldn't you believe an Arsonist would douse multiple targets before igniting?

Why would he douse multiple targets? He didn't want anyone to be 100% confirmed as town seeing as there is only one scum. Two doused is two nights for a douse checker to confirm someone.

[Varcron]

I'm not trying to nit-pick and I don't really think I am. It's fair to re-evaluate my own reads, no?

It is fair, but you haven't developed a strong enough argument to where I feel is justified to change your read.

[Frinckles]

Diverging off of this post for a moment, take a look at this Stealth. Immediately after I was called out by you with your points, Frinkles hops on the train without second thought. That by itself is basically admitting to wanting either of us dead and not caring who it is.

You fundamentally misunderstand. I believe SB16 is the Arsonist in the status quo. I just wanted answers to some questions here.

[Frinckles]

It is fair, but you haven't developed a strong enough argument to where I feel is justified to change your read.

A strong enough argument for what? I've laid out my points for the past two days.

[Varcron]

I've looked at this game from both points of view. What would I do if I was scum in this game? And what would I do as my current role this game. It made sense that an arsonist could potentially douse and burn N1

[Frinckles]

Not really, I was leaning to scumreading Frinkles for a fair chunk in the previous two or so days, I was actually sort of hoping that it would be Marshmallow alive instead of one of you, because now this is going to get really god damn hard.

Like this shit. At what point were you scumreading me when you were sheeping my reads?

[Varcron]

Like this shit. At what point were you scumreading me when you were sheeping my reads?

I started scumreading you after Stealth started making himself noticed. Stealth immediately gave off town vibes with how his arguments were made, for example.

So yeah, if we take some of the same arguments that I gave against Frinckles yesterday, we can see they apply here as well, but Varcron is a better fit.



Varcron votes toad instead of Kovath on D1.



And then ignites N1 in order to push a mislynch on Toad.

This was actually really fucking well done, I can respect that and I won't be mad if I get lynched.

Who makes stuff like that up as scum, as you said before with me, I say to him.

Yeah, it's very good mechanical play that you can definitely understand from someone who plays the mod a lot. I'm impressed.

I would like your opinion on this @Frinckles

Reread how he goes from the end of D1 into immediately pushing Toad BECAUSE of Kovath's death. He rationalized the arsonist's night kill and used it to scumpaint another player for the lynch. This is exactly what I would try to do as solo scum.

Or this, him in a day and a half has managed to provide a detailed analysis of me and why I am scum, you don't just make that up on the fly.

[Frinckles]

Diverging off of this post for a moment, take a look at this Stealth. Immediately after I was called out by you with your points, Frinkles hops on the train without second thought. That by itself is basically admitting to wanting either of us dead and not caring who it is.

Also, SB16 brought up new relevant information that I missed.

[Varcron]

Also, SB16 brought up new relevant information that I missed.

He did, he provided a detailed analysis as soon as he became active about what he thought.

[Varcron]

It's just a massive pain in the rear how Toad was just mass gaslighting and not claiming and Caustic speaking in riddles again.

[Frinckles]

I started scumreading you after Stealth started making himself noticed. Stealth immediately gave off town vibes with how his arguments were made, for example.



Who makes stuff like that up as scum, as you said before with me, I say to him.



Or this, him in a day and a half has managed to provide a detailed analysis of me and why I am scum, you don't just make that up on the fly.

Okay, that's kind of bullshit.

I've provided numerous reasons as to why SB16 is the Arsonist and you scumread me for it now?

[Frinckles]

It's just a massive pain in the rear how Toad was just mass gaslighting and not claiming and Caustic speaking in riddles again.

It pisses me off more because I gave him plenty of time to. I guess he was just salty at MM.

[Varcron]

You fundamentally misunderstand. I believe SB16 is the Arsonist in the status quo. I just wanted answers to some questions here.

I didn't even touch on this gem right here. What you're saying is you still think Stealth is arsonist, but now you are starting to change your mind to agree to get a lynch off?

[Varcron]

It pisses me off more because I gave him plenty of time to. I guess he was just salty at MM.

Not that it mattered anyways, I'll re read my points, whoever the arsonist is out of you two (leaning towards Frinkles) had this lay out in your hand for you.

[Frinckles]

I didn't even touch on this gem right here. What you're saying is you still think Stealth is arsonist, but now you are starting to change your mind to agree to get a lynch off?

I'm not in any rush to lynch. I believe that SB16 wanted Kovath eliminated early amongst other things.

You're the one who looks like they're trying to take advantage of me and SB16 psuedo-thunderdoming, you can't see that?

[Frinckles]

And don't mind my re-evaluating reads, I was just pocketed and entire fucking game by Gyrlander.

[Stealthbomber16]

I believe frinkles would have ignited because of how good Marsh is at sniffing people out. I'm newer to FM than he is by a massive longshot, so it would be easier to argue with me than argue with him, easy.

You fool, you fell for my trap!

Notice the similarities in how varcron has been playing both nights that there was an ignition.

I don't really like Toad from my skim of D1 but given how little was said (my fault), I doubt that's much to go on.

This is a fairly big hint that you are the scummy and not Frinkles, I thought about this for awhile and it just does not sit well with me as to why you would say this as a response.

So you ignited to prove your point, I don't think you were planning on this but wanted to hammer it home to all of us, a nice bread crumb trail. You could tell at the EOD1 that you were disappointed with no lynch (in all likelihood you wanted a lynch so you had less dousing to do while eliminating a prime townie)

Immidiately concerned about what Kovath noticed in your patterns, that in itself is a red flag with how you reacted in such an alarmed manner.

This proves your point in the last statement; you wanted a lynch to further your cause at EOD1, so since you didn't get it you made a example of a prime townie (Kovath). It is in my opinion that any other doused town member at the time would have had the same fate as Kovath, just to prove that Toad's theory was correct.

With all that being said

-vote Toad

Hopefully someone else follows this train of thought.

and

I know I have already replied to this post, but now that I've read Frinckles' reply, I can really appreciate the Trump administration reference.

And for your information, you've got me totally pocketed if you're arson lol, good job. The only question I have about Frinckles - you is "should I actually vote Frinckles?".

~~

About the douse-ignite question, a.k.a. the "Who would douse Kovath and ignite him afterwards, considering he had been relatively AFK?", I am coming to the conclusion that the most likely candidate is... Caustic. Not really because he has reasons to do so (noone ACTUALLY has reasons to ignite the AFK guy N1 honestly, he wasn't threatening enough for it to be a fearkill), but because he's the one who has the most laid-back attitude and who can create the most confusion with it. Proof is, we're still debating about it, and he's being left out of it all.
Of course, that's nothing super strong, but I think I might be onto something.

I believe frinkles would have ignited because of how good Marsh is at sniffing people out. I'm newer to FM than he is by a massive longshot, so it would be easier to argue with me than argue with him, easy.

In both of these scenarios Varcron is pushing someone who previously was scumread by whoever was ignited. The reason it's not working today is because MM didn't really strongly scumread frinckles, and I believe that if MM said "should I actually vote stealth" I would be on the chopping block right now.

[Stealthbomber16]

I'm not in any rush to lynch. I believe that SB16 wanted Kovath eliminated early amongst other things.

You're the one who looks like they're trying to take advantage of me and SB16 psuedo-thunderdoming, you can't see that?

Okay I'm gonna be completely real here I don't actually remember the last game I played with kovath

[Frinckles]

And really, if you're trying to push that I'm flipping over to you because SB16 put a bit of pressure on your slot: Why the fuck wouldn't I have done that the first time he posited his read on you?

[BananaCucho]

Just over 24 hours remain

https://youtu.be/7QXk-xbRgSg

[Frinckles]

Yeah I don't buy that.

Literally. @Varcron

[Varcron]

You fool, you fell for my trap!

Notice the similarities in how varcron has been playing both nights that there was an ignition.





and





In both of these scenarios Varcron is pushing someone who previously was scumread by whoever was ignited. The reason it's not working today is because MM didn't really strongly scumread frinckles, and I believe that if MM said "should I actually vote stealth" I would be on the chopping block right now.

No, I would have re read and said the same thing that I've said just now.

[Stealthbomber16]

I think it's completely useless to think about who would douse kovath at this point in time because all 3 of us technically have a reason to.

I apparently got lynched by kovath when I was neutral?
Frinckles thinks kovath is a strong town player
Varcron doesn't know who he is and so he doused him to be safe. (I did this as a cult leader with Kenny in his first game)

[Varcron]

And really, if you're trying to push that I'm flipping over to you because SB16 put a bit of pressure on your slot: Why the fuck wouldn't I have done that the first time he posited his read on you?

To make it seem organic, he never laid a vote down, so there was no reason to rush.

[Varcron]

I think it's completely useless to think about who would douse kovath at this point in time because all 3 of us technically have a reason to.

I apparently got lynched by kovath when I was neutral?
Frinckles thinks kovath is a strong town player
Varcron doesn't know who he is and so he doused him to be safe. (I did this as a cult leader with Kenny in his first game)

Eh? I've played with Kovath before too y'know

[Stealthbomber16]

I will put this out here now that regardless of whether or not frinckles and I actually lynch you today varcron

you played an excellent game up to today and I think your only mistake was igniting MM last night.

[Stealthbomber16]

Eh? I've played with Kovath before too y'know

ok fine be that way

[Stealthbomber16]

I will put this out here now that regardless of whether or not frinckles and I actually lynch you today varcron

you played an excellent game up to today and I think your only mistake was igniting MM last night.

unless frinckles is arsonist in which case FUCK YOU WRINCKLES

[Frinckles]

To make it seem organic, he never laid a vote down, so there was no reason to rush.

We're in MYLO. Why the hell would he hand the guy he was just arguing with the hammer?

[Varcron]

I will put this out here now that regardless of whether or not frinckles and I actually lynch you today varcron

you played an excellent game up to today and I think your only mistake was igniting MM last night.

I think Frinkles has legitimately fooled you like he fooled me for 90% of this game. His scum play by igniting MM scum painted me to the extreme for you, while also protecting himself.

[Frinckles]

unless frinckles is arsonist in which case FUCK YOU WRINCKLES

I'm not. And it's Pringles according to @BananaCucho

[Varcron]

We're in MYLO. Why the hell would he hand the guy he was just arguing with the hammer?

He wouldn't which is why you weren't rushed to change to his side.

[Varcron]

We're in MYLO. Why the hell would he hand the guy he was just arguing with the hammer?

If I were scum I would have continued sheeping you until the end, the solo scum currently probably doesn't care who dies at all at this point.

[Frinckles]

If I were scum I would have continued sheeping you until the end, the solo scum currently probably doesn't care who dies at all at this point.

That's not true. You had said that you were 'lean scumreading me,' I would have noticed that kind of play.

[Frinckles]

That's not true. You had said that you were 'lean scumreading me,' I would have noticed that kind of play.

That would be some belligerent wolfing.

[Varcron]

That's not true. You had said that you were 'lean scumreading me,' I would have noticed that kind of play.

I don't say everything I think.

[Frinckles]

MMs assumption is that Varcron is the Arsonist if I hammer here but he has already pivoted for the next day.

Just addressing this first :
That is a theory I have right now, yes. That being said, Varcron doesn't become confirmed scum because of his interactions with Toad; the interactions simply felt dishonest and had a lot of misrepresentation on both sides, and what I believed to be blatant lying from Toad.


Also, I want to reassess my townread of Frinckles, @Stealthbomber16 . I don't buy his interaction with Kovath at EoD as a "scum dancing around the future corpse". I also think he's not scummy overall? That doesn't mean I'll necessarily agree with his reads though ;)

So you're supposing I type this knowing MM dies the next night despite being townread because he would 'sniff me out' too? I was legitimately worried that MM may have been pocketing me. I even mentioned this earlier that day.

[Varcron]

So you're supposing I type this knowing MM dies the next night despite being townread because he would 'sniff me out' too? I was legitimately worried that MM may have been pocketing me. I even mentioned this earlier that day.

You mentioned it knowing in the future that MM would die so you could prove yourself and make a stronger defense in the long run.

[Frinckles]

You mentioned it knowing in the future that MM would die so you could prove yourself and make a stronger defense in the long run.

You're trying to pick out tiny threads and very loose things and weave them into a conspiracy theory.

Yeah, okay. I bring up a legitimate point and you ask me to disprove something that isn't true.

[Stealthbomber16]

Fuck it.

I don't see my opinion changing today now that I've picked up on this pattern.

-vote Varcron

If Frinckles doesn't hammer in his next post that means he isn't arsonist which confirms I'm right FMPOV.

[Frinckles]

You fool, you fell for my trap!

Notice the similarities in how varcron has been playing both nights that there was an ignition.

and

In both of these scenarios Varcron is pushing someone who previously was scumread by whoever was ignited. The reason it's not working today is because MM didn't really strongly scumread frinckles, and I believe that if MM said "should I actually vote stealth" I would be on the chopping block right now.

That's not true. You had said that you were 'lean scumreading me,' I would have noticed that kind of play.

This is consistent with my point as well, I'll give you that.

[Frinckles]

Fuck it.

I don't see my opinion changing today now that I've picked up on this pattern.

-vote Varcron

If Frinckles doesn't hammer in his next post that means he isn't arsonist which confirms I'm right FMPOV.

I'm clear.