So recently I decided to review our S-FM games to determine what the outcomes of the D1 lynch policy typically are, as you can see in the table below, I went through 27 games, only choosing games that had 2 distinct factions (Scum Vs Town); taking note of whether there was a d1 lynch or not, and what the outcome of that lynch was, as well as the game end outcome. Also noting here I excluded games with mandatory lynch/nolynch policies on D1
Screenshot_1.png
So from this we can see:
64% of games are D1 lynch games
On a D1 Lynch, A town member is killed 69% of the time
On a D1 Lynch, Town wins the game 50% of the time
On a D1 No Lynch, Town wins 64% of the time
My thoughts on this are:
Wow, I wasn't expecting the no lynch option to be so prevalent, I was expecting it to be as low as 20%, not closer to 40
We really suck at choosing lynch candidates
So in regards to the last two points, I understand that there are a lot more variables in play and that it doesnt come down to a D1 lynch to determine the game outcome, however, there clearly is some association with the two though even if it is minor.
What is there to take away from this? Well as someone addressed in a previous post (or end game chat, Ive forgotten), we are terrible at scum hunting without power role leads or associations. Do I know how to resolve this? No fucking clue, but it exists so someone else should get onto that. There is almost a better chance to random a slot for lynching and hitting a scum than there is in the town 'scum hunting' on D1 (there actually were better odds before I expanded the sample size).
Whilst I am in support of D1 lynches (Town controlling the kill blah blah blah), the town at this point might as well be a child with a gun in a blindfold. I would temporarily support D1 No-Lynches until town improves D1 scum hunting techniques (someone suggested a game with no PRs, that might help educate and allow players to experiment) because there is some mild correlation that a D1 no-lynch improves odds of a town victory.
Anyways im sure plenty in the post will be disagreed with, but im just providing some numbers and a platform for discussion based on previous games. I will continue to add to this table over time and re-adjust percentages as required, I will probably only work my way down to the start of 2015 though, as the player base changes enough to affect the data by then.