S-FM 355: Nonstandard Roles 3

[Luka]

Martin is Neutral
Lily is Town
Mizery is Mafia
BWC/Scumbot/Oliver - Neutral/Mafia Candidates

Oliver is pure

[Luka]

Do you understand that if those 2 are town you go in poe?

With the current claims

Sure whatever
Why should I care

[Marshmallow Marshall]

like it may be the fact that i'm somewhat intoxicated 90% of the time I'm in thread but this is like also my second game playing mafia in like half a year or so, so I really don't remember how i thought of you before and the last game isn't a good example because you made, what, two posts or so because it was over D1

are... are you okay?

o k that sounds bad but its under control i don't have a problem

o k xD
STOP INTOXICATING YOURSELF WITH LENTIL SOUP, MIZERY!

I have meta and have called her wolfy, I feel left out by this t.t w/e you're seeing it

really? I missed this entirely, then. So I'm not just going crazy lmao.

frankly I think you've put a bit too much weight into my response

I could've easily done it the same way if I were neutral, and after I made it I wasn't really satisfied with what I came up with upon reflection. It all felt a bit too stretchy.

Also, like, if you keep gushing that I'm town I'm going to get concerned that you were explicitly trying to pocket me and make sure I stay there. I don't think that at all right now, but I'm just saying I'd prefer the results of our interactions to not be "Omg Martin is so town" and more like, y'know, substantially discussing what I've said (I'm assuming the "Regarding Lily:" part was a response to Lily instead of me).

Martin, you can't reject me like this. I like your pocket, and don't want to go out. You can't simply break the mind communion from the post I jumped in your pocket over. You can't. YOU CAN'T!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I might as well claim. Maybe its a bit suboptimal but honestly don't care atm and just want to amp up pressure on the PoE so they start doing more stuff.

This whole post earlier was me effectively role-claiming Soul Mate but disguised as setup speculation.



I'm preety sure I've made other breadcrumbs earlier in the game but I don't really care to bring them up right now.
@Luka @Auwt



This was the reason why I would never accept. Because firstly I AM one of the protects (who can't self target) who should protect a town/town bride thing, and furthermore if I had ever succeeded in preventing a death I myself would bound someone else to me. Meaning by agreeing to a bride I would either have to never protect or I would be risking three deaths from just one kill.

That's why I was only acknowledging your guys reasoning on day 1, because you all failed to account for the possibility that I was a (or for all I knew, at that time, the only) protective lmao.

Uuuuuuuuuh. Well at this point, if the protective is claiming, should we just mass-claim for PoE's sake?

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

Where is Helz

[oliverz144]

Where is Helz

he said he is picking up stolen stuff thrown out
perhaps it was bait and now they stole him
the bride
to force marriage

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

Oh right

I often forget stuff like that

[MartinGG99]

Uuuuuuuuuh. Well at this point, if the protective is claiming, should we just mass-claim for PoE's sake?

I think the question is simpler

whether someone thinks they should claim or not

enforcing mass claim irrespective of individual circumstances probably is not going to break the game given the setups "nonstandard" theme



But when it comes to reading a person, knowing when they claimed, what they claimed, and etc can be beneficial or detrimental to their case in conjunction with the town wincon.

So, like, you should figure out if you wanna claim or not. Not whether the whole game should claim or not.

[Helz]

@Helz and @MartinGG99 (pinging you two because you're my two top towns + are good at analyzing), are you seeing what I am here, or am I tunneling?

Catching up now.

I do see what you are looking at there. I will also say that reading people off what their not doing has served me poorly in the past. Her being low effort and apathetic about the game certainly could be an indicator that she does not have a town win condition but it also could be as she says that she never intended to dive deeply into the game.

Normally policy lynch pressure could be applied but with 2 more days of obligated lynches I am not sure if there is much we can do.

[Helz]

This is my first game here, the person I joined this game for got mled day 1 while I was asleep, and I intentionally was taking this game easy in the first place. While your read makes sense, it falls into the classic mafia player problem where they don't understand that effort differs from game to game and isn't exactly that AI. Fmpov we are just waiting for a wolf to finally die thus I'm not too pressed to wallpost and find a wolf. I found a wolf and I'm waiting for him to die. Effort comes after

Why wait? He is very obviously team scum. You could just assume his flip and start alignment hunting now.

[oliverz144]

Why wait? He is very obviously team scum. You could just assume his flip and start alignment hunting now.

please look at the pings notifications we sent you

[oliverz144]

HELZ LOOK AT THE PINGS FIRST PLEASE

[Helz]

I still think that huo could be the evil teacher even though that requires their other check on D1 to also be a wolf otherwise cape would be dead.

Im still not quite getting the line of thought that Huo could be an evil teacher.

Spoiler : Evil Teacher Role Card :

Evil Teacher - Choose 2 players at night. If their alignment don't match, they both will die. You may choose yourself and someone else. If they don't match your Neutral Alignment, only they will die.(Mafia/Town/Neutral). You cannot be killed by the Mafia.

Looking at that I see no way for such an ability to be investigative and find a mafia. Finding a neutral would make sense if night immune but Cape is either Mafia Flower Child (extreemly likely) or has one on his team that provided lynch immunity. Either I am misunderstanding something or you are.

[Dark Magician]

I was thinking MM was town because of the reads, but if lilypetal is town he could be mafia

I doubt MM is Mafia unless I’m wrong on Mizery but I don’t believe I am.

[Helz]

Honestly if there are so few town in PoE, and that I am a part of that PoE, I don't see why I shouldn't claim tbh. Ideally the claim makes a case as to why I'm strongly town (beyond not-mafia) and, if it doesn't, at least I will know ahead-of-time that I will need to invest more of myself into the game so people have a clearer look at me and/or let me know who will still have doubts on me.

There are a number of roles which are mechanically confirmable. The risk I see would be that you claiming could push others to claim and would narrow down the pool evils are shooting into to hit our protective.
For what its worth I suspect the N1 no kill was somewhere between a Fancy Lady, Tough Guy or Night Watchmen. Really hoping its a Fancy Lady. Would be a nice setup balance mechanically and very useful given the gamestate.

I trust your judgement. If you feel its worthwhile or if you have one of those totally confirmable roles narrowing down that PoE does good things for the distant day where we can lynch. I would suggest considering the benefits of narrowing down the PoE while we are unable to lynch though.

Only potential counter-argument I have is that I am a bit clueless as to why you have such a strong read on Luka. I don't really scum read them, but I don't have any strong town-reads of them either I think. Like their last mention of me (below) was cleverly nuanced imo but also maybe something a person with TMI would be more likely to notice and furthermore be able to articulate. I'm not sure. I just have some doubts in the back of my head and if you could share your reasons that would be greatly appreciated. Regardless if you do or don't share though, I'm thinking that me claiming is probably among the best moves I can do here now.

It was a town slip D1. They had a total misunderstanding of some mechanical function and were openly pushing in a way that could easily be considered scummy. My logic is that if they were Mafia they would be much more likely to be aware of how the mechanic worked as well as mindful of how they portrayed themselves. It felt like genuine ignorance and a lack of hyper self-awareness.
I specifically assumed 'not mafia' on them but leave the door open to if they could be neutral. Not trying to just hand them a pass but that was one of my only 2 substantial alignment takes from D1 with the other being DM is very likely town trying to cram his will down everyones throat.

[Dark Magician]

i called cape scum d1 too =)

Yes but you called them a wolf with Helz.

A typical play mafia make is call a wolf partners with a town during SoD1 to potentially use that later on in the game.

[Dark Magician]

They were super ignorable lol. The only reason Lily's posts were ever not simply ignored is that I brought attention to them. It was super easy to just park a vote on Cape, who can absolutely be a scummate here (bussing exists, and besides, this wouldn't even be that much bussing, it'd just be a meaningless vote parking).



Are you saying this because of the 2nd quote? (which is this)

Because this is so inconclusive and lacks a follow-up it indicates literally nothing XD
You're basically reaching here, probably due to bias. I'm not saying Lily is 100 % necessarily scum, btw, just that your arguments have pretty much zero value here.

OMG MM what don’t you understand.

No WOLF puts that many detailed attack onto their partners, it is unethical.
Lily would have done it poorly if they wanted to distances. They don’t pressure hard like this.

[Dark Magician]

Not to mention MM, I shared basically the same/similar thought that they did.

It means they are town.

[Dark Magician]

It is rare to share the same thought as a wolf let alone rare a wolf would push on both their teammates let alone like never in the way Lily did it.

[Helz]

HELZ LOOK AT THE PINGS FIRST PLEASE

I would say that 2 town dead for potentially 1 scum is a rough trade. 7 town and 5 non-town means 2 for 1 trades put is in the negative. Its also an issue of the shot not being certain to kill a scum. If we lost 3 townies in 1 play that could easily cost us the game.

I will say that I believe your claim with the way you went about it.

[Dark Magician]

Thank you for assuming why I think that she's town. However, you're entirely off the mark as to why.
The reason I think she's town is fairly simple; in my experience with her, they genuinly are more demotivated as town lol. I remember 3 games with her in which she was town and basically didnt play, or at the very least low posted. As scum, the only game I remember she was basically the most active poster. It's a small distinction but either way. In addition to tha,t self meta generally comes from twon in my experience.

@MM
Here’s a good point!

[Dark Magician]

I can ask host Helz but you can target me and I think I should be fine.

[Dark Magician]

Yeah it’s probably best to target me.

[Dark Magician]

You can target me Helz, we should be fine.

My voice ain’t leaving this game till it’s over.

[Helz]

I might as well claim. Maybe its a bit suboptimal but honestly don't care atm and just want to amp up pressure on the PoE so they start doing more stuff.

This whole post earlier was me effectively role-claiming Soul Mate but disguised as setup speculation.



I'm preety sure I've made other breadcrumbs earlier in the game but I don't really care to bring them up right now.
@Luka @Auwt



This was the reason why I would never accept. Because firstly I AM one of the protects (who can't self target) who should protect a town/town bride thing, and furthermore if I had ever succeeded in preventing a death I myself would bound someone else to me. Meaning by agreeing to a bride I would either have to never protect or I would be risking three deaths from just one kill.

That's why I was only acknowledging your guys reasoning on day 1, because you all failed to account for the possibility that I was a (or for all I knew, at that time, the only) protective lmao.

This makes quite a bit of sense. I did pick up on you specifically saying D1 that because of how your role functions you would never accept and I took note of Soul-mate.

[Helz]

W!oliver could be gambling on the idea that obviously 2 town x 1 outted wolf is not great and that helz won't bride him and that mafia "wouldn't target a vengeful"

Like what does he do if helz goes "fuck it we ball"? xD he outed mizery and himself

Unless he expecting us to think this and to go bride mizery????

Which i would fucking respect if he is 4 steps ahead???

-Mr Tail

This did occur to me as well. (When I say this I mean absolutely no offense when I say this) but my WIFOM read on Oliver puts this well outside of his play level. I would be very impressed if anyone made such a deep play but I think its much more likely that Oliver is town given his progression on the issue. He seemed very excited and eager to get an answer for me on the subject to the point he ended up claiming and presenting the plan prior to me responding which feels genuine.

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

This did occur to me as well. (When I say this I mean absolutely no offense when I say this) but my WIFOM read on Oliver puts this well outside of his play level. I would be very impressed if anyone made such a deep play but I think its much more likely that Oliver is town given his progression on the issue. He seemed very excited and eager to get an answer for me on the subject to the point he ended up claiming and presenting the plan prior to me responding which feels genuine.

yeah i agree, I would also 100% give it to him if he did

[Helz]

o k that sounds bad but its under control i don't have a problem

For what its worth I was the same for a long time with Mafia. It was not that I was drunk all the time, it was just the thing I liked to do while drinking so often while I was playing I was also drinking.

Used to joke with frog about how playing mafia while drinking is playing mafia on hard mode. Tougher to analyze and to avoid slipping.

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

okay so

if Mr Magician

Helz

Oliver

Martin

and (apparently) Lilypetal

baddies are

Cape (obvious)

Scumbot
Marshmallow
Mizery
Bwc
luka

am I missing something?

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

luka town most likely

scumbot bwc neuts

mizery MM scum

or w/e

[Helz]

So something we have not really discussed is the Varcron issue. We have a very powerful neutral with a win condition that fits ours. I believe its more likely that they are against Mafia than against Neutral and we can help feed them information to our advantage.

One potential could be simply to not lynch Cape and leave him for the Ghost to eliminate while we hunt down his friends. If he is paying attention he should know 5 peoples roles leaving a pretty small pool outside of Cape to manipulate. This will functionally be a role block as well as a potential to eliminate a scum opening up an additional lynch for the town. While it leverages on if I am correct that he is anti-mafia as opposed to anti-neutral for the cape part its functionally the same if I am wrong in its other respects.

I am curious to hear what you guys think about this.

Also- @Dark Magician I would think carefully about the other thing you are pondering although your half committed now.

[Helz]

okay so

if Mr Magician

Helz

Oliver

Martin

and (apparently) Lilypetal

baddies are

Cape (obvious)

Scumbot
Marshmallow
Mizery
Bwc
luka

am I missing something?

Im not confident on Lily but yes. I do believe we have a lot of scum in a very small PoE. Its an interesting situation because we have such limited ability to eliminate them and basically have to hope for more cross kills between the factions for a chance to win.

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

Im not confident on Lily but yes. I do believe we have a lot of scum in a very small PoE. Its an interesting situation because we have such limited ability to eliminate them and basically have to hope for more cross kills between the factions for a chance to win.

luckily they also know this so if they want a realistic chance of winning they have to cross kill tonight

for example, if we hit the bounty hunter all of us breath, our better outcome would be the death of the evil teacher tho

[Helz]

To be clear the problem I am looking at is our lack of ability to kill identified scum. We are crippled in our lynch ability by both a Bounty Hunter and Evil Flower Child and we do not have much kill utility. With our vengeful outed I am worried that we basically have no chance if we go Cape today, and Me tomorrow

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

To be clear the problem I am looking at is our lack of ability to kill identified scum. We are crippled in our lynch ability by both a Bounty Hunter and Evil Flower Child and we do not have much kill utility. With our vengeful outed I am worried that we basically have no chance if we go Cape today, and Me tomorrow

yeah I get it but it is what it is

[oliverz144]

I would say that 2 town dead for potentially 1 scum is a rough trade. 7 town and 5 non-town means 2 for 1 trades put is in the negative. Its also an issue of the shot not being certain to kill a scum. If we lost 3 townies in 1 play that could easily cost us the game.

I will say that I believe your claim with the way you went about it.

i want to kill cape...
me, you, cape all die today,tomorrow the thread is free

[Helz]

yeah I get it but it is what it is

Well its why I am considering that we may need to not lynch Cape today and instead lynch within our PoE and leave Cape for Varcron to handle. Gives us potentially an additional scum while mitigating the chance of the Ghost hurting a townie. Our best world would be if we hit the Bounty Hunter.

[Helz]

i want to kill cape...
me, you, cape all die today,tomorrow the thread is free

I don't see this as a good play though. Either just cape dies or 2 town die with cape. Theres no real upside there.

[Helz]

Essentially the problem with having such a strong town block is our night wifom is fucked in a 2-3 kpn situation without lynch control if that makes sense..

[MartinGG99]

why do we have to vote-off Helz

more specifically

why do we need to kill the bounty hunter?

Town: Have one living member (No Trees) survive to see All Mafia/Werewolf/Evil Teacher/Corruptor killed. Victory will end the game.

[MartinGG99]

assuming we don't make too many mistakes I think its possible for town to win before bounty hunter does

[oliverz144]

To be clear the problem I am looking at is our lack of ability to kill identified scum. We are crippled in our lynch ability by both a Bounty Hunter and Evil Flower Child and we do not have much kill utility. With our vengeful outed I am worried that we basically have no chance if we go Cape today, and Me tomorrow

thats why i suggested the triple kill

[Helz]

Random points I have not mentioned.

I noted Mizery trying to open up the PoE by pushing Huo as potential Evil Teacher. Still not tracking on their reasoning behind that but the potential intention is of note.

Martin's claim is very well seeded. Will have to WIFOM if that was done intentionally as a high level play to fake confirm down the road or if its legit but his play has been pro-town.

Were essentially at 7v5. Likely shifts to something like 5v4 with a cape lynch. If we lynch off Cape and Oliver vengeful targets Cape an evil teacher could go for a double (or triple) elimination. As much as I dislike coaching scum heres how that could play-
Teacher targets someone in the PoE. Very high chances of non town (even easier for them given they are in that PoE) as well as Oliver. Oliver vengeful targets Cape with the result of 2 scum and 1 town eliminated.

This is very good for the evil teachers win con as they need that Mafia block broken up and its a pretty nice thing for the town as well.

[Helz]

thats why i suggested the triple kill

Im chewing on a triple kill of 2 neutral 1 town instead of 2 town 1 neutral : )

[oliverz144]

why do we have to vote-off Helz

more specifically

why do we need to kill the bounty hunter?

yeahh i had the same thougth but apparently it is what it is

[Helz]

Im chewing on a triple kill of 2 neutral 1 town instead of 2 town 1 neutral : )

Scum* not specifically neutral and one would certainly be mafia.

[Helz]

why do we have to vote-off Helz

more specifically

why do we need to kill the bounty hunter?

Well it would put us under the gun for a time line and further cripple our vote ability if the game goes on. Thats some risks..
Potential for the Ghost to mess with that ability which is cool but I am really afraid of our lack of ability to eliminate players as a town. Like.. I have not been in this situation in a mafia game before where we reliably know exactly who needs to die but are hindered in our ability to make it happen on a D3.

[Helz]

Also

@oliverz144
I am almost as confident that DM is town as I am that Huo is for what its worth. Just noticed your vote was on them.

[MartinGG99]

Well it would put us under the gun for a time line and further cripple our vote ability if the game goes on. Thats some risks..
Potential for the Ghost to mess with that ability which is cool but I am really afraid of our lack of ability to eliminate players as a town. Like.. I have not been in this situation in a mafia game before where we reliably know exactly who needs to die but are hindered in our ability to make it happen on a D3.

I....think I get what's concerning you.

I think I have to sit down and math this all out a bit, because I'm considering a factor that I was oblivious to up till a few hours ago. I have a meeting in about an hour I gotta prepare for, but after that I'll be back to work on that.

[MartinGG99]

Really want to get my thoughts out on this before EoD because on face-value I think deciding whether we vote off Helz is probably going to significantly affect the course of this game. Also I might not even be here d4 lol.