Well. I have no idea what's going on anymore.
@oliverz144 @Renegade @Voss
still waiting on the stuff I asked for
Well. I have no idea what's going on anymore.
@oliverz144 @Renegade @Voss
still waiting on the stuff I asked for
We doing mass claim now? Okay. I'm a voter. Plain ol' vanilla.
So that's what we'd get :
Marshmallow Marshall Gov'nor
NotPaopan State attorney?
Lag Medic
Gikkle Voter
Loldebite Voter
PQRnHack Congressman
oliverz144 Congressman
Voss Congressman?
Renegade Mayor
Stealthbomber16 Judge
We're all thinking about it so i'll ask the rhetorical question out loud :
Is there any world in which a town State Attorney places a vote on himself ?
If people want to fakeclaim medic and take bullets for me, they are more than welcome to, I'm not going to CC them. Once I publicly claim though I'm kind of forced to self-heal - means only 1 confirmed town from a night with no kills. But if I can save someone else then that makes two confirmed town rather than just one.
CCing the claim would have been a very dumb thing for me to do, lol
Well, since your target is not informed, you cannot infact, confirm any town at all. Scum may always skip the NK, with no invest roles there is no pressure on them. They did it just to WIFOM and try to bait a ML last game, so scum would 100% skip a NK to "confirm" their medic.
@Lag , could you explain all of your reads to me? I'm still inclined to believe you're scum here because I'm just not really following your thought process this game. Would help a great deal if I knew why exactly you thought the way you did for all of your reads.
Voss and you are PoE town-leans, because null-reads are for cowards.
PQ is being pushed by slots I wolf-read + baseline >rand town from VCA.
Gikkle is town because after playing with a player a number of times, you get a feel for their meta,
Saying this having played Gravity Falls (we were both town), Anime World 2 (I was town, he was wolf), Galactic Community (we were both wolf), and Bisected Souls (we were both town) with him.
Read his play in Deck Mafia 4 (he was town)
And hosted games with him playing as town in Once Upon a Town in the West, and Murder in the Mid-Atlantic
There are few players whom I've seen play/played with more times than Gikkle.
It can be hard to put into words someone's meta exactly, but town Gikkle is paranoid, unafraid, and prefers just living as a null read. Wolf Gikkle tries to emulate town Gikkle but sometimes forgets things or has an agenda.
Gikkle's paranoia about me town-reading him is reminiscent of the Bisected Souls game more than it is reminiscent of Anime World. Like it's well within Gikkle's wolf meta to push someone that town-reads him as a way to divert the wagon off of him, but from what I've seen that occurred when his own slot was under pressure. Whereas in the Galactic Community game his slot was not under pressure and just accepted townreads as wolf. In this game he is not under any pressure and is still paranoid of a town-read on him - which is >rand town for Gikkle
See his paranoia around medic claims as well: >rand town
And this is all built on top of the fact that people that were on the Frinckles wagon are just >rand town from my POV as a baseline + gut read on the slot.
Putting it all together, Gikkle is town, topped only by oliver who is obv town.
Is it possible that Gikkle is wolf? Could be, in which case I'd suspect him making a push onto me as a means to save a teammate. But right now I've seen more just general paranoia from him rather than agenda-y pushes
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
(3 scum scenario)
PQRN/Voss/Oliverz contains no more than 2 scum, vote count wise and mechanically (congressman). I could see martin putting 2 scum just to make people confused, but not all three, because then the chat would be pointless. They all voted together d1, which would be rather weird for scum to do. I honestly find it unlikely, though, that more than one of them is scum, even if I don't think it's impossible.
MM/Stealth/Renegade contains no more than 2 scum, mechanically. Would give a 3 person scum team too significant of a voting advantage. Only 2 role combinations that are impossible in a 3 person team is SA/Mayor. All other combinations of 2 would probably work somewhat.
Lag/Renegade is VERY unlikely to be S/S, based on the fact Renegade almost got Lag killed yesterday.
Loldebite, I think, is townie. He has seemed fairly genuine all game and it's never seemed like he's had TMI or an agenda or anything. Mostly just an attitude read, really.
I also think Oliverz matches his town meta more than his scum meta. In his scum game, he was very stagnant and uncontroversial - I don't see the same thing here.
Paopan/Lag likely contains one scum, could contain two if they decided to do something spicy last night.
PQRN/MM is unlikely to be S/S.
MM is most likely town after seeing his play this day. His day 1 stunk, but his day 2 has been great so far.
I disagree PQRN is actually that scummy - but I'm not confident enough to come to his defense, because he has had some questionable moments.
I think the following pool contains the 2-3 scum:
Paopan
Lag
PQRN
Voss
Renegade
Stealthbomber
(removed myself, oliverz, loldebite, MM. )
The following teams for three people could be possible, in my mind (I may have missed some):
Paopan, Lag, PQRn
Paopan, Lag, Voss
Paopan, Lag, SB16
Paopan, Renegade, PQRn
Paopan, Renegade, Voss
Paopan, Renegade, SB16
Paopan, Voss, PQRn
Paopan, Voss, SB16
Paopan, PQRN, SB16
Lag, PQRn, Voss
Lag, PQRn, SB16
Lag, Voss, SB16
Renegade, PQRn, Voss
Renegade, PQRn, SB16
Renegade, Voss, SB16
Voss, SB16, PQRn
(2 scum scenario)
For two people, like other people have said, I think the only really valid teams are 2 vote manipulation PRs. One of the mayor/SA + one of the other vote manipulation PRs, or both the Mayor and the SA. SA hasn't claimed, so it's one of Paopan/Lag.
MM, Renegade, SB16, and one of Paopan/Lag. 2 of these, basically. Since I TR MM, it'd have to be Renegade/SB16, Renegade/Paopan, SB16/Paopan, or SB16/Lag.
--
Obviously, this is more for my own personal visualization than yours, since I'm a possibility to you guys, and you may not agree with leaving Loldebite/MM/Oliverz out... But I think these 16 3 person teams, and 4 2 person teams has the correct team.
Guessing you meant to say Loldebite, not Frinckles. In that case, I already gave the answer.
Day 1 stunk because of the oliverz stuff and generally unimpressive play.
Day 2 was great because MM's aggression seems more like town trying to actively find scum rather than wolf hard pushing an agenda - the reason I believe this is the fact he was willing to do a turn around on you. It shows that he's not just tunneling to get a mislynch, rather, he's actually reconsidering his reads (assuming y'all are not BOTH scum, and he never intended on pushing you to the end in the first place, which I guess is a slim possibility, and maybe it was something you guys talked over in scum chat, and that's why MM suddenly got better after the night phase? Hmm).
His thought patterns have made sense, even if I didn't agree every step of the way, for example, it made sense why he was (is) suspecting PQR, and it made sense why he suspected you. His attitude whilst doing so felt genuine a lot of the time as well.
Certainly felt like it was because of the town-read on you, given that's a common thing you've done in the past.
Brought back memories of this post:
The phrasing of
"I'm not accusing you of anything... yet... I would just like you to elaborate a little"
and your recent post
"I'm just not really following your thought process this game"
invoked similar feelings of frustration.
So if it's not that the town-read, then what is it? You've been kind of opaque on that.
Someone mentioned earlier that my VCA for EoD is wrong because PQ was the main day 1 wagon. That felt wrong so I plotted where everyones votes were over the course of day - it updates only when a new vote comes in, so the time scale is distorted, but it gets the point across:
And like, PQ is pretty clearly not ever really at risk here, so where is that idea coming from? Did I record a vote wrong somewhere?
My PoE in no particular order is:
MM, Pao, Ren, SB16
MM is trending upwards, Pao + Ren trending downwards
I honestly think a big reason why some people are scumreading me is because they are so obsessed at nailing a "good" wolf that if not every post is the pinnacle of townliness that must mean I am outplaying the entire thread and pocketing everyone I know. The only reason I have for thinking this is because I have yet to see an argument presented as to why I am wolf that isn't predicated on anything other than a fantasy people have conjured up in their heads about what's going on.
The point I'm trying to make is that FRINCKLES was the person that looked to be at risk on day 1. Which you can see as the giant blue bars that span the entire chart. PQ was only in contention as a little blip there.
My point is that wolves didn't have to do anything at EoD and were content to let town implode, which when you look at the graph seems pretty clear to me? Like PQ was only at 3 votes when Guillo was voting him, and then Guillo voted somewhere else. But Guillo flipped town. Town was clearly doing the wolves work for them at EoD there with a bunch of town wagons, so the wolves are going to be >rand the off-wagon bystanders.