S-FM 234: Lottery - Page 65
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  1. #1281

  2. #1282

    Re: S-FM 234: Lottery

    Quote Originally Posted by PIayer View Post
    Yes it would be weird but still possible considering rng can be weird (know what I'm talking about QQ if Im that unlucky, you as scum may be unlucky to the point witch was your only option for nk last night.


    Still wallin' btw, I plan to wake like 2 or 3 hours before EoD if town can drag daytime far enough.
    Shit I'm starting work now but I'll be here eod. As long as trophy doesn't get lynch happy with gyrlander we should be ok
    CHOO CHOO, THE DARK GOD CALLS THOSE RIGHTEOUS AND FAITHFUL! FLOCK TO THE DARK MESSIAHS ARMS!

  3. #1283

    Re: S-FM 234: Lottery

    Spoiler : Starting by this misleading saying of Exeter :

    Quote Originally Posted by Exeter350 View Post
    It suddenly occurred to me why it's quite unlikely for there to be a Tailor.

    For D1 and D2, there were no Vigi tickets, which means the Black Ticket must've both been Factional Kill.

    For D3, there was a purple Vigi ticket but nobody claimed to have got it, which means the Black Ticket was something else but the Mafia got the Vigi shot to kill somebody.
    Something irked me while rereading this: felt like he nuanced the first part ("must've") more than the second part ("which means the"). But first part objectively feel more certain than part 2.
    I had to actually recheck setup after rereading this, it was a very strong assumptions afterall. And:
    There are seven raffles each day: Public Raffles (Gold, Purple, Blue, Red) and three Mafia Raffles (black).
    Exe was so towny, and he's dead anyway so won't extend on "was he scum misleading in this spot & got tailored, or just genuine town not remembering that part" speculation.
    Instead try to get what matters here: Three mafia raffles per day. Assuming true random raffle (T.T still believe SJ is too town to troll me on purpose, remember how his rolelist fix early was pure niceness. Also got an history of bad luck at random, almost used to it at this point) Maf got 3/7 (43%) chance for NK and 3/7 for Framer (everything in fact) each day.
    That could mean things, fe either Maf won D3 AND D4 Vig ticket despite town having numbers advantage, or they won 1 and got factional NK 3/4 night so far. Or they just got factional every night + town Vigs never connected (would it even be possible to be SO unlucky?).
    That also potentially means that much tailors, considering the effect being permanent, at this point flip info won't mean shit anymore, this makes town lost one of the very few true, reliable info to work with. Whoever get lynched today may be tailored. The way I see it, atm only Fatalis corpse can be 100% not tailored confirmed because OoO N1 cf next spoiler.


    Spoiler : RIP Fatalis, town embodiment :
    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    "Tailor
    You may use this item to make a player appear as the opposite faction when they die."
    This answer to me made it pretty clear setup description was accurate. "When they die"
    OoO reminder:
    7. Kills
    8. Doctor
    10. Tailor
    That make sense bc else Tailor would be before kills & also would be even more OP. So dying N1 100% cleared Fatalis, but everybody else could have been (although some would still me more weird than others). Sorry if it isn't useful at this point but at least it shows the level of uncertainty we're buried in, and the fact it could really be 1 mastermind vs 3 town at this point = maybe NOT MYLO afterall, maybe MAYBE be the ultimate 1 mastermind vs 2 town battle will happen tomorrow.

    Only alternative I see to this is Gyr + SCV are scumteam and SCV plan is basically to bus Gyr today to mindfuck/stale next night, and if he can't kill at night he'll finish game by spamming trophy to lynch me tomorrow.

    Spoiler : Mister TrophyWife :
    Whatever speculation, one of few true infos we got left is actually the fact the game is going on. So if Trophy is scum he's definitely alone. Through the iso he sounded mostly genuine to me, not committing much time in game (100% NAI thing), only thing that seemed suspicious to me is the fact I saw almost no scumhunt and overall timid scumreads ('cept Nawa the scummy kitten and Hybrid when we all thought the same).
    Found this bit while doing this: this was early game (#375) answering Hybrid
    Quote Originally Posted by mrtrophywife View Post
    These points are against Gyrlander include:
    Being afk
    Sheepng on a claim against you.
    Good points. I must have skimmed over this.
    Your push against Gyrlander and my push against you have alot of similarities. If Gyrlander continues the radio silence, I'll probably end up agreeing with you.
    Didn't quite get why he would agree on this with the man he'd voted, and be that affirmative instead of interrogative. If sheeping on Hybrid was a serious charge in the context it would be known; actually Nawa defending him 'til the end despite his behavior gained substantial scum points at least from Exeter & me.Also if being borderline afk was a serious charge, maybe you need to be voted today because if you're actual mayor in this spot you HAVE to townlead or at least help us here. Understand how nothing is certain anymore, rebrowse things for a while and take position, it would help. I really want to believe you're town just being timid about your opinion considering the uncertainty, that's fair but all we can do at this point is share feels to try to lessen the random even by a very tiny bit. Atm you could still be bus-happy last mafia with Hybrid(or else)/Nawa tailored, afterall you said smth like Nawa was the only you had a clear read on.
    Now I know meta thoughts are bad but tbh I'm aware I wanted to lynch you in 8-2-2 game for similar reason (commenting but not taking position/contributing with originality) and you were Marshall so these "scumslips" could just be part of your playstyle, afterall we share similar beliefs on the nature of this game and while I'm more optimistic about the impact we can have on random through discussion, I can imagine how this could make you act this way.
    So please if you're town do your best to be here by EoD for interaction, I'll try to wake 3h before agora. If your rl doesn't allow this, at least please park vote on anyone + take some time to give arguments for us to work with before leave, else if you don't vote today we'll just be forced to vote you.


    Spoiler : Gyr the Furry Squirrel :
    Now Gyr, coming at your own iso, man you're like a mini-Hybrid, less active but with better syntax. And Hybrid asked to die. How am I supposed to make sense of this. Maybe it's just lazy scum, maybe it's a lazy variant of "Hybrid/SCV scummy citizen numeta" playstyle but if that, you need to contribute more and pressure more people, I respect you and know you're experienced player but at this point if you're town I believe you need to drop oneliners and give deeper insights (better late than never, as regarding behavior alone you actually look more suspicious than SCV/trophy atm). Why SCV, why not trophy or me, behavior, slips, just why. I gave my reasonings. Will you find time to read it all and answer properly to save town if you're actually town? Hybrid trusted you above all and don't have meta on you 'cept I know you're experienced, so I'm still reluctant to park on you but tbh he must have seen something I didn't. Feel free to enlighten me on this matter, and be here for EoD if you intend to help town in its darkest hour.


    Spoiler : TL;DR pls? :
    fuck tailors


    Guess I'll see when I awake. See you all in few hours.

  4. #1284

  5. #1285

  6. #1286

  7. #1287

  8. #1288

    Re: S-FM 234: Lottery

    Only alternative I see to this is Gyr + SCV are scumteam and SCV plan is basically to bus Gyr today to mindfuck/stale next night, and if he can't kill at night he'll finish game by spamming trophy to lynch me tomorrow.
    I wish you'd see im not with gyrlander already lol. Lets lynch his ass then shoot trophy if we are wrong. Ive got all my points in that gun tonight.
    CHOO CHOO, THE DARK GOD CALLS THOSE RIGHTEOUS AND FAITHFUL! FLOCK TO THE DARK MESSIAHS ARMS!

  9. #1289

  10. #1290

    Re: S-FM 234: Lottery

    Quote Originally Posted by PIayer View Post
    Spoiler : Starting by this misleading saying of Exeter :



    Something irked me while rereading this: felt like he nuanced the first part ("must've") more than the second part ("which means the"). But first part objectively feel more certain than part 2.
    I had to actually recheck setup after rereading this, it was a very strong assumptions afterall. And:

    Exe was so towny, and he's dead anyway so won't extend on "was he scum misleading in this spot & got tailored, or just genuine town not remembering that part" speculation.
    Instead try to get what matters here: Three mafia raffles per day. Assuming true random raffle (T.T still believe SJ is too town to troll me on purpose, remember how his rolelist fix early was pure niceness. Also got an history of bad luck at random, almost used to it at this point) Maf got 3/7 (43%) chance for NK and 3/7 for Framer (everything in fact) each day.
    That could mean things, fe either Maf won D3 AND D4 Vig ticket despite town having numbers advantage, or they won 1 and got factional NK 3/4 night so far. Or they just got factional every night + town Vigs never connected (would it even be possible to be SO unlucky?).
    That also potentially means that much tailors, considering the effect being permanent, at this point flip info won't mean shit anymore, this makes town lost one of the very few true, reliable info to work with. Whoever get lynched today may be tailored. The way I see it, atm only Fatalis corpse can be 100% not tailored confirmed because OoO N1 cf next spoiler.


    Spoiler : RIP Fatalis, town embodiment :

    This answer to me made it pretty clear setup description was accurate. "When they die"
    OoO reminder:
    7. Kills
    8. Doctor
    10. Tailor
    That make sense bc else Tailor would be before kills & also would be even more OP. So dying N1 100% cleared Fatalis, but everybody else could have been (although some would still me more weird than others). Sorry if it isn't useful at this point but at least it shows the level of uncertainty we're buried in, and the fact it could really be 1 mastermind vs 3 town at this point = maybe NOT MYLO afterall, maybe MAYBE be the ultimate 1 mastermind vs 2 town battle will happen tomorrow.

    Only alternative I see to this is Gyr + SCV are scumteam and SCV plan is basically to bus Gyr today to mindfuck/stale next night, and if he can't kill at night he'll finish game by spamming trophy to lynch me tomorrow.

    Spoiler : Mister TrophyWife :
    Whatever speculation, one of few true infos we got left is actually the fact the game is going on. So if Trophy is scum he's definitely alone. Through the iso he sounded mostly genuine to me, not committing much time in game (100% NAI thing), only thing that seemed suspicious to me is the fact I saw almost no scumhunt and overall timid scumreads ('cept Nawa the scummy kitten and Hybrid when we all thought the same).
    Found this bit while doing this: this was early game (#375) answering Hybrid


    Didn't quite get why he would agree on this with the man he'd voted, and be that affirmative instead of interrogative. If sheeping on Hybrid was a serious charge in the context it would be known; actually Nawa defending him 'til the end despite his behavior gained substantial scum points at least from Exeter & me.Also if being borderline afk was a serious charge, maybe you need to be voted today because if you're actual mayor in this spot you HAVE to townlead or at least help us here. Understand how nothing is certain anymore, rebrowse things for a while and take position, it would help. I really want to believe you're town just being timid about your opinion considering the uncertainty, that's fair but all we can do at this point is share feels to try to lessen the random even by a very tiny bit. Atm you could still be bus-happy last mafia with Hybrid(or else)/Nawa tailored, afterall you said smth like Nawa was the only you had a clear read on.
    Now I know meta thoughts are bad but tbh I'm aware I wanted to lynch you in 8-2-2 game for similar reason (commenting but not taking position/contributing with originality) and you were Marshall so these "scumslips" could just be part of your playstyle, afterall we share similar beliefs on the nature of this game and while I'm more optimistic about the impact we can have on random through discussion, I can imagine how this could make you act this way.
    So please if you're town do your best to be here by EoD for interaction, I'll try to wake 3h before agora. If your rl doesn't allow this, at least please park vote on anyone + take some time to give arguments for us to work with before leave, else if you don't vote today we'll just be forced to vote you.


    Spoiler : Gyr the Furry Squirrel :
    Now Gyr, coming at your own iso, man you're like a mini-Hybrid, less active but with better syntax. And Hybrid asked to die. How am I supposed to make sense of this. Maybe it's just lazy scum, maybe it's a lazy variant of "Hybrid/SCV scummy citizen numeta" playstyle but if that, you need to contribute more and pressure more people, I respect you and know you're experienced player but at this point if you're town I believe you need to drop oneliners and give deeper insights (better late than never, as regarding behavior alone you actually look more suspicious than SCV/trophy atm). Why SCV, why not trophy or me, behavior, slips, just why. I gave my reasonings. Will you find time to read it all and answer properly to save town if you're actually town? Hybrid trusted you above all and don't have meta on you 'cept I know you're experienced, so I'm still reluctant to park on you but tbh he must have seen something I didn't. Feel free to enlighten me on this matter, and be here for EoD if you intend to help town in its darkest hour.


    Spoiler : TL;DR pls? :
    fuck tailors


    Guess I'll see when I awake. See you all in few hours.
    Good point on the fatalis being only confirmed townie. I didnt think of that but he really is based on mechanics. Nice nickname for Gyrlander too . I feel Gyrlander is a very apathic Hybrid style player lol. Id also like to remind you Hybrid wished MM specifically before he died good luck and he hopes he wins. Might mean our MM lynch was on the money, or Nawa. Both associated with Hybrid. Basically all your points and all my points lead to the same conclusion of lynch that squirrely Gyrlander. We have safety net of shooting Trophy tonight if we wrong.
    CHOO CHOO, THE DARK GOD CALLS THOSE RIGHTEOUS AND FAITHFUL! FLOCK TO THE DARK MESSIAHS ARMS!

  11. #1291

  12. #1292

    Re: S-FM 234: Lottery

    OH shit i just realized theres a bus ticket. If Trophy wins that bus and busses himself if we needed to kill him... I rlly hope you win that bus ticket you said you bought Piayer...
    CHOO CHOO, THE DARK GOD CALLS THOSE RIGHTEOUS AND FAITHFUL! FLOCK TO THE DARK MESSIAHS ARMS!

  13. #1293

  14. #1294

    Re: S-FM 234: Lottery

    Quote Originally Posted by PIayer View Post
    Did betted on it, but can't guarantee I'll get it at this point..
    Also betted on dual vote bc if trophy as maf ever get this it's auto GG

    Considering Hybrid point idk if that's relevant at this point rly.

    But yh at this point your plan seems like the best option, it's just, sos much random involved either way
    I just brought up the hybrid point cause you brought up hybrid
    CHOO CHOO, THE DARK GOD CALLS THOSE RIGHTEOUS AND FAITHFUL! FLOCK TO THE DARK MESSIAHS ARMS!

  15. #1295

  16. #1296

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  19. #1299

  20. #1300

 

 

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