Conspiracy
Day One
Setup
Players:
@thedougler
@Voss
@Mesk514
@Unknown1234
@Stealthbomber16
@Cryptonic
@SuperJack
@Gyrlander
@Sino
00
00
00
00
DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS
(extra time for starting suddenly)
Conspiracy
Day One
Setup
Players:
@thedougler
@Voss
@Mesk514
@Unknown1234
@Stealthbomber16
@Cryptonic
@SuperJack
@Gyrlander
@Sino
00
00
00
00
DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS
(extra time for starting suddenly)
Do we all understand what MattZed said about the probabilities at the end of the last game? From the point of view that any one of you also rolls inno, consider the chances of there being a conspiracy at 50/50 right off the bat and not 4/6. The odds that you are the only inno and that everyone is inno are exactly equal. I just want to make sure we all start off on the same page in case the latter scenario is what we're dealing with.
That is a fallacy Mesk. The odds of flipping heads don't increase above 50% on your next flip just because you have flipped tails 1000 times in a row. The odds of you being the only inno person don't magically change because the gods of chance know that's what happened last time. But I'm sure you know this...
Now imagine MattZed has a d10 to determine the setup.
Green-d10-dice.png
Each side of that d10 represents one of ten scenarios. In scenarios 1-8 someone that is not you is inno and you are a conspirator. In scenario 9, you are innocent and everyone else is a conspirator. In scenario 10 everyone is inno. Upon seeing that you are inno, as you claim to be, you can deduce that he either rolled a 9 or a 10. The odds of the dice landing on either of those is equal.
Sure the odds of there being a conspiracy appear greater for an outside observer, but the scenario in which any one of us is inno by ourselves is just as likely as the scenario in which we are all inno. That's why someone said earlier that voting based on the probabilities is dumb. I'm going to look for psychological clues that someone here is lying. That's already a strike against you Mesk because IDK whether or not your statement was meant to lull me into a false complacency.
........ i understood nothing that you said. all i know is, im innocent. you people really don't do a good job of convincing at all lol. if your an inno you should take innocent claims seriously. this was what was lacking last game and why i was able to determine i was the only innocent. no one even remotely acted like it was possible for another innocent.
idgaf about odds but if you wanna discuss them then what are the odds that mattzed is a mean mean person towards and made it twice Mesk Vs. Everyone else.
I think if MattZed lacked integrity as an FM host other people would have refused to sign on to this one. I'm sure everything is sufficiently randomized. In any case I think claiming to be innocent is kind of pointless. It's just a perfunctory claim conspirators and innos alike would both make, so I see no point in making it at all.
I don't know if you're familiar with Wilmer McLean. The first battle of the American Civil War was fought partially on his farm, and despite him packing up and moving to avoid the war, in 1865 troops comandeered his home and it was used as a meeting place where Robert E. Lee surrendered to Ulysses Grant, bringing the war to an end. "The war began in my front yard and ended in my front parlor," he was reported to have said.
Of the 112 men who died constructing the Hoover dam, the last to die, Patrick Tierney, was the son of the first to die, J. G. Tierney.
The Mongols under Kublai Khan twice tried to invade Japan, and both times had their fleets destroyed by typhoons.
The point is coincidences happen and are actually pretty common. How many times does someone call you when you were just thinking about that person, or you hear the song stuck in your head on the radio? The odds of you being the only innocent twice in a row here is 1/60, which is actually pretty strong. There's also the chance that you're innocent along with everyone else right now, which brings it even higher.
Think about what you're saying right now. Why would I try to convince you there is a conpiracy? To whose benefit would that even be?
You made the same typo twice. This hurts my autism >.<
You seem pretty sure of yourself on this. The only people with any kind of certainty about anything this early in the game are conspirators.
i'm really drunk right now.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
i've also played conspiracy 4 times right now.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
and not knowing if mattzed changed his OWN RULES ON WHETHER ITS A 50/50 OR NOT.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
I'M KEEPING MY VOTES TO MYSELF.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
i sincerely doubt anyone's going to be around at this time, but this is me checking in, and i 100% percent promise to not check if matt zed changed the percentage or not. however, i thought this might be really easy for innocents to win if they get just ONE person that they trust. if that happens, they have to believe its all innocents, which makes it kind of easy for innnocents to win, if they only look for the one person they trst 100% than the enemy they don't trust 100% at all...
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
[23:19:33] DarknessB: Sino is Mass Murderer -- I don't care if there isn't one in the setup!
[23:19:39] DarknessB:-vote Sino
I wouldn't have trusted Mesk last game, and I sure as hell don't trust him based on what he has said so far this time. He was still innocent last time though. Some people just come across as scummy no matter what. I'm going to give Mesk some more leeway than I would to others to prove his innocence. If he keeps this up though and others continue to sweep it under the rug, I'm going to have to call you all out on your conspiracy.
[23:19:33] DarknessB: Sino is Mass Murderer -- I don't care if there isn't one in the setup!
[23:19:39] DarknessB:-vote Sino
Lol I knew Matt would make me an innocent after making a fuss lol.
I'm going to be voting that there is a conspiracy, because it's 5/6 chance. So, if you guys are truly innocent, then YOU can be ones that vote there isn't one. I am not changing my mind.
I mean, I understand the logic.. but if you ran 6 games, 5 would be conspiracies. I'm not going to inflate my chances to 50% just because it better odds for me to win.
So, if you want to convince me there isn't a conspiracy, you can just vote that there isn't one. Simple as that.
No no no I just went through this. With 9 players that means there are 10 possibilities (one for each of us as the inno and one for Setup B). And I'm not "inflating it" to 50%. For anyone else that is theoretically looking at a rolecard that says "Innocent" right now, they can immediately reduce those 10 possible rolls into 2 possible rolls; he either rolled a 9 or a 10, with possibilities 1-8 ruled out.
You sly dog... On the off chance this is Setup B (which you have ALREADY denied) you are passing the buck onto all other innos to vote no conspiracy. Either way it's a dick move and makes me suspicious of you.
For anyone who doesn't get it yet, voting for a conspiracyby default is NOT a rational choice, especially not for an inno. If we're in setup B then you're fucking us all in a classic prisoner's dilemma. If it's setup A then I know you're scum pressing for me to vote no conspiracy.
Yes, I realize my decision is a gambler's fallacy, but no one has done anything in this game to lead me to doubt my decision. So, no, making my decision wasn't rational, but sticking to it is.
If you want, you guys can all talk among each other for the day. Either you'll put on a charming little play for me, or you'll convince me to change my vote.
Convince me otherwise, then.
I don't see why someone would get mad at me. If you are Innocent then you can vote No-Conspiracy. As long as we don't have more than 50% of the players saying they're going to vote conspiracy. But I am putting my foot down first, because I am not getting my vote swayed by Conspirators to be like "derp Cryptonic you should be one of the No-Conspiracy voters." nope go away lol
Why should I be convincing you when you're the one so set in your views? Your trick isn't going to work on me. I'll just end up voting conspiracy like you. If your mind is made up then so is mine.
If you really don't care as you say then you wouldn't be exerting this soft pressure for innos to vote exactly how conspirators would want them to. With that in mind I'm going to react in the opposite way of what you would want me to do as a conspirator.
[23:19:33] DarknessB: Sino is Mass Murderer -- I don't care if there isn't one in the setup!
[23:19:39] DarknessB:-vote Sino
ugh i guess i have to check which is it.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)