M-FM XXVI The Frozen Throne Gamethread

[M-FM Stratholme]

Do people know if they are witched?

since it isnt specified in the setup you can assume that the usual setting counts, wich is they dont get notified, if youw ant a host answer ask in green.

[M-FM Dalaran]

A lot has happened quickly so I'll try to address everything I can because I've got a lot I want to say. Maybe we will start out with some scenarios. What could have happened during the night and what was the result of those actions? I'll compile anything I can think of and find in the setup (and I'll also add other scenarios that do not have anything to do with night actions).

Spoiler : Scenarios that make me town and Princess a Detective :

1. A town BD bussed me with the killer. To me a likely scenario, I'd consider myself a target I'd want to protect as a town Bus Driver considering I contributed a lot and tried to scumhunt when possible and also tried to encourage activity. The only problem is that without the Bus Driver revealing we won't know if this happened as bussing does not leave feedback. On the upside a BD reveal would reveal a scum player and avert this possible mislynch. The BD would also very likely not be scum allied with me because that action would be very weird for scum to take. If an allied BD would want to protect me he would swap me with someone towny. If they wanted to kill me they'd want to swap me with someone scummy (the killer that Princess followed? risk of unintentionally framing me).
2. A framer framed me. It's possible that someone framed me because I looked towny and they wanted to cause a mislynch if an investigative role checked me. (Unlikely in my eyes though, I will explain later in this post)
3. Princess was blackmailed. Unlikely because her behaviour does not suggest that at all.
4. Princess was witched. Is that likely? Who knows, maybe the Witch is trying to find scum by using their action and seeing what happens and as Princess had only one post yesterday it's possible she was deemed scummy.
5. A reaction test. The fact that she claimed being new speaks contrary to that but on the other side it might all be fake to set up a strong reaction test. The way she is pushing the lynch it could be either way.
As far as I can see these are all the possible night actions and other scenarios.

Spoiler : Scenarios that make me town and Princess scum :

1. A gambit. I do not find that super unlikely. Consider this: It's usually not expected that scum would try a gambit this early. This leads to a more believable train and causes a mislynch. Now if the gambiting player presents himself as a towny player and even uses one of the scenarios from the spoiler above to prove why he is still town even though his result was not correct then that scum team would be in a way better position than before. It is however questionable why they would not try to kill me instead if they wanted me dead this much and try such a risky gambit instead which relies on the gambiting player being a player that can seem sincere. I could only see this gambit as a continuation of a failed night kill but even then.. ehh.

Any other scenarios are not possible. Why? I will claim now as this statement will lead to that conclusion soon anyway: I am a footman. As a small proof I'll post my last will.. it'll be slightly redacted though because of sensitive information.

[SPOILER=Incomplete Last Will]

If that quote is real or not is up to you to decide. Anyway, I'll come to the juicy part. Why did you decide to investigate me, Princess? I mean honestly, saying "uh dunno just a feeling" isn't really a good reasoning. Usually you'd use your action on someone you read as scummy. Why'd you use it on me? Did you read me as scummy? Can you go through my posts and point out what is scummy about them to back up your action? Saying it was based on a gut feeling seems pretty weak to me to be honest.

Now, I did say that scum trying for a gambit is unlikely. This still stands even though Princess has gotten a lot scummier over the course of her posts but that doesn't quite refute the fact that a scum gambit would not be a good idea. I'm not sure if I'd give Princess the benefit of doubt for now because she claims to be new and that's maybe what is making me read her as scummy. If I would give her the benefit of doubt though the only possibility left is that one of the different night actions I mentioned interfered with the investigation and as such threw up me visiting the dead Silvermoon.

Some odd notes that may save people some time:
Framers frame makes the target appear to be mafia as well as appear to have visited the factional kill
Bus driver does not leave feedback
There is a mafia version of the Bus driver in the roles
Witch does not leave feedback

This is unfortunate turn because I did read you as town. If this is a gambit I hope it will not take up too much time. If not we can trust the detective lead and go for the lynch or debate hypothetical situations. I can say that if any of the 3 above mentioned roles had a hand in the situation it would in fact create a potential for Plague to be a footman and Princess to be a detective. Reguardless of Princess alignment I trust that the feedback is either real and should be trusted to be what she received or its all a gambit which will be revealed after some period of time.

Unless some new information comes up or Princess reveals this to be a gambit I would be in favor of lynching Plague. I read the player as town from his day chat but I am a huge fan of following the conclusion that makes the most sense. The two I would consider is that Plague is mafia caught by a detective or that a framer framed plague.

Do mafia hand pick the player that is sent for the night kill or is it random?

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

IS PMING ALLOWED?

[M-FM Dalaran]

since it isnt specified in the setup you can assume that the usual setting counts, wich is they dont get notified, if youw ant a host answer ask in green.

It is specified in the setup:
Witch- Manipulate a target at night and force them to visit a second target.
You may cause self targets.
You may send the manipulated target to yourself.
If your self target causes a killing role to visit itself it's kill will bypass night invulnerability.
Your manipulation gives no feedback.

[M-FM Stratholme]

It is specified in the setup:
Witch- Manipulate a target at night and force them to visit a second target.
You may cause self targets.
You may send the manipulated target to yourself.
If your self target causes a killing role to visit itself it's kill will bypass night invulnerability.
Your manipulation gives no feedback.

It actually is? okay my bad, I could swear the first time I readed the setup it wasnt there.

[M-FM Stratholme]

IS PMING ALLOWED?

I can tell you that Pming isnt allowed and will never be, you could just aswell make a skype group and speak with everyone there, if it would be, since there is no way for others to find out with whom you are Pming.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

I can tell you that Pming isnt allowed and will never be, you could just aswell make a skype group and speak with everyone there, if it would be, since there is no way for others to find out with whom you are Pming.

thank you, sorry for being an idiot in general guys. I'll tone it down from here on out. didn't mean to come out too early, I know d2 invest claims are usually looked upon with suspicion, i just noticed jester/exec not possible and figured we need to start out on the right foot.

Anyway, Plague isn't a footman.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

To be clear, can someone explain why the hell I would want to do a "gambit"? There are no neutral roles... I am either town and gamethrowing... or I am evil and dead tonight (to town power role) or dead tomorrow (to lynch) if plaguelands isn't evil.

If literally the only defense anyone can muster against me is I am taking a "gambit" please explain to me why a pro forum mafia player that is evil would pretend to be detective day 2?

[M-FM Dalaran]

thank you, sorry for being an idiot in general guys. I'll tone it down from here on out. didn't mean to come out too early, I know d2 invest claims are usually looked upon with suspicion, i just noticed jester/exec not possible and figured we need to start out on the right foot.

Anyway, Plague isn't a footman.

Take a moment to consider the scenario's which plague mentioned. They are all potential reasons you could have indeed received this feedback and he could be a footman. This is why not everyone will immediately jump on the train and lynch. (That and whatever happens will hopefully happen 36 hours from now with a lot of talking in between)

Also just because it was not mentioned Princess could be controlled by a Ventriloquist. I also believe this is unlikely.

My vote stays on Lordaron although I do support this lynch.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Take a moment to consider the scenario's which plague mentioned. They are all potential reasons you could have indeed received this feedback and he could be a footman. This is why not everyone will immediately jump on the train and lynch. (That and whatever happens will hopefully happen 36 hours from now with a lot of talking in between)

Also just because it was not mentioned Princess could be controlled by a Ventriloquist. I also believe this is unlikely.

My vote stays on Lordaron although I do support this lynch.

stop wasting your vote and vote the lead, we have so many afk players, advance the game. only scum random vote when there is a lead. You look like a scum pretending to be town really really hard

[M-FM Stratholme]

To be clear, can someone explain why the hell I would want to do a "gambit"? There are no neutral roles... I am either town and gamethrowing... or I am evil and dead tonight (to town power role) or dead tomorrow (to lynch) if plaguelands isn't evil.

If literally the only defense anyone can muster against me is I am taking a "gambit" please explain to me why a pro forum mafia player that is evil would pretend to be detective day 2?

Noone says you cant be detective, but that doesnt mean that plaquelands is 100% scum, since we have 6-7 enemies in the town it would be fatal to mislynch and from the looks like the chance is high that plaque was framed/witched/bussed e.t.c. (dalaran quotet eralier that framer sends his target to the factional night kill wich is different from sc2mafia btw)

[M-FM Dalaran]

To be clear, can someone explain why the hell I would want to do a "gambit"? There are no neutral roles... I am either town and gamethrowing... or I am evil and dead tonight (to town power role) or dead tomorrow (to lynch) if plaguelands isn't evil.

If literally the only defense anyone can muster against me is I am taking a "gambit" please explain to me why a pro forum mafia player that is evil would pretend to be detective day 2?

Because it gives the town information. If you were say; a citizen and wanted to see how Plague would react you could say you were a detective and caught him killing last night. The same reason its good to put pressure on players even if you do not want to lynch them at the time.

[Leech]

I have a VERY BAD FEELING about M-FM Stratholme.

That is all.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Noone says you cant be detective, but that doesnt mean that plaquelands is 100% scum, since we have 6-7 enemies in the town it would be fatal to mislynch and from the looks like the chance is high that plaque was framed/witched/bussed e.t.c. (dalaran quotet eralier that framer sends his target to the factional night kill wich is different from sc2mafia btw)

"highly likely"

Is that what you call <10% chance? What are the chances framer/witch/bus hit him the same night I did, the same night he visited silvermoon?

Scum #3 located.

You guys are making this too easy.

[M-FM Dalaran]

Noone says you cant be detective, but that doesnt mean that plaquelands is 100% scum, since we have 6-7 enemies in the town it would be fatal to mislynch and from the looks like the chance is high that plaque was framed/witched/bussed e.t.c. (dalaran quotet eralier that framer sends his target to the factional night kill wich is different from sc2mafia btw)

Why do you think its a high chance he was framed/witched/bussed?

[M-FM Stratholme]

Why do you think its a high chance he was framed/witched/bussed?

Since, I see him as town, he was pro town active yesterday and we have 6-7 random mafia roles that could be Framer/witch/Bus driver, it would be obv to assume that mafia or scourge used at least one role to miscredit him after his strong lead yesterday.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Since, I see him as town, he was pro town active yesterday and we have 6-7 random mafia roles that could be Framer/witch/Bus driver, it would be obv to assume that mafia or scourge used at least one role to miscredit him after his strong lead yesterday.

More like you're dead tomorrow buddy

[M-FM Plaguelands]

My read of Princess (posts as of now: 199):

Post#130
My first impression is: Who talks like that? Who says that?
I sure as hell didn't claim that I was new in my first FM. What benefit does it have? That people will forgive me bad plays? If this is the impression then the conclusion we can take for this game is that Princess is either just really new and inexperienced and doesn't give any thoughts about her paly.. or this is a setup for a gambit or various other weak plays.
Post#133
It's the very first post of Day2. Additionally this claim is very fishy. "Doc on me" trying to show confidence but directing town's actions at the same time. Manipulation if you ask me. On the other hand it's reinforcing that this is a new player as claimed before and it works because everyone here has played the Mafia mod before. The "Gg" seems weird though.
Post#134
More reinforcement that this person wants to be seen as new or genuinely is new.
Post#141
She claims that she has not given her action any thought and went by gutfeeling. I dare say without coming across as too full of myself that with a bit of thought you would find much better targets than me after D1. And Princess took another opportunity to claim that she is new. 4/4 posts so far.
Post#142
Voted correctly this time
Post#143
Is pushing town aggressively to follow her lead without giving it too much thought. Who says that? Nothing is even confirmed yet. Especially telling others to not let me talk. It's a clear sign of manipulation. The funny thing is that you even follow it up by saying that there's a "90% chance" of me being scum after being so completely convinced of me being scum just in that sentence before.
Post#145
You try to explain yourself and you are willing to think of the possibility that I'm town but it does not explain this absolute conviction you have shown before. There's a disparity between your explanation and your behaviour.
Post#149
Two manipulations in one post. First one is trying to instill the idea that Captain Luc is scum and allied to me. Second manipulation being the doc thing again. You do not even try to contribute in any different way.
Post#157
You bash Northrend for saying that I'll show up and then you use the timezone difference to explain your reasonings. Really? He made a good point and you should've used the time to pressure someone else until I show up and you immediately attack him for a good idea.
Post#181
An attempt to undermine discussions of the day and to focus town's attention on me again before I even made a post.
Post#182
That's not true and does not contribute at all.
Post#184
Once again trying to manipulate everyone to see me as definite scum. This time even using insults which have no use other than to see their reactions (which is why one of the possibilities for me was that this is a reaction test, but it can't be if she goes to such lengths to get me lynched). Also throwing around words like "obvious evil", more manipulation.
Post#185
Pure troll post. Most likely made to reinforce the impression that this is a new player. It's utterly worthless.
Post#187
Sad that you won't be confirmed town, rhetorical questions. Even misreading Dalaran's post slightly to say "Am I really the only "power" role?!". This post reeks of the same fakeness and another attempt to reinforce being new. At this point it has happened so often that I absolutely cannot believe it anymore.
Post#189
Gives short answers, does not comment on anything else. Her explanation on why she targeted me is very unsatisfying. I can't see someone like this signing up to this FM. Not giving a thought about her night action, not bothering to contribute, being very irritating. I'd imagine you'd look at the other games and see how they went before you played your first game (for example during the time you sign up and the start of the game there's lots of possibilities to check out different games).
Post#190
I can't take this post seriously at all. I colored my claim with a green color so it stands out. You can't tell me Princess wouldn't immediately think of Citizen when I say Footman. It's the only role that can't take an action and that every mafia player knows no matter if he played RL mafia, the arcade mod or elsewhere. It also suggests that it's D2 and she apparently hasn't taken a look into the setup to know this? Ultimately my conclusion is that it's just another low-effort post to seem new once again.
Post#191
She corrects herself but the "damage" is done.

I'll stop here because I have responded to her other comments already.

As much as I said that her claim seemed believable in the beginning, going over it in detail I feel like I made a 180 and I am a lot more sure that she's scum.

-vote M-FM Princess Calia Menethil

[M-FM Dalaran]

Since, I see him as town, he was pro town active yesterday and we have 6-7 random mafia roles that could be Framer/witch/Bus driver, it would be obv to assume that mafia or scourge used at least one role to miscredit him after his strong lead yesterday.

I agree that he would make a good target. Although I still only see the framer as the only real viable option in there. Maybe a mafia bus driver swapping the role preforming the kill with plague. Witch I think is very unlikely and town aligned BD is just too much of a coincidence.

[M-FM Plaguelands]

I don't understand. He asks for "more proof" There is literally none.

How does anyone think analyzing what someone types, WHICH THEY CHECK AND ANALYZE FOR INCONSISTENCES BEFORE POSTING, is more effective than FOLLOWING A LEAD THAT HAS NO COUNTERCLAIMS.

Come the fuck on, learn to play mafia guys.

FOOTMEN CANT VISIT. PLAGUELANDS VISITED SILVERMOON. SILVERMOON DIED.

It's pretty simple.

Oh, you claim you check your posts for inconsistencies before you click the "submit" button? LOL that's hilarious. It sure does not seem that way. It's also a false assumption to make. You can't analyze posts? Yeah, okay.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Oh, you claim you check your posts for inconsistencies before you click the "submit" button? LOL that's hilarious. It sure does not seem that way. It's also a false assumption to make. You can't analyze posts? Yeah, okay.

No but thats what you guys claim to do. you're just mad because these start every couple months and you lose day 2. peace out broha

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

My read of Princess (posts as of now: 199):

Post#130
My first impression is: Who talks like that? Who says that?
I sure as hell didn't claim that I was new in my first FM. What benefit does it have? That people will forgive me bad plays? If this is the impression then the conclusion we can take for this game is that Princess is either just really new and inexperienced and doesn't give any thoughts about her paly.. or this is a setup for a gambit or various other weak plays.
Post#133
It's the very first post of Day2. Additionally this claim is very fishy. "Doc on me" trying to show confidence but directing town's actions at the same time. Manipulation if you ask me. On the other hand it's reinforcing that this is a new player as claimed before and it works because everyone here has played the Mafia mod before. The "Gg" seems weird though.
Post#134
More reinforcement that this person wants to be seen as new or genuinely is new.
Post#141
She claims that she has not given her action any thought and went by gutfeeling. I dare say without coming across as too full of myself that with a bit of thought you would find much better targets than me after D1. And Princess took another opportunity to claim that she is new. 4/4 posts so far.
Post#142
Voted correctly this time
Post#143
Is pushing town aggressively to follow her lead without giving it too much thought. Who says that? Nothing is even confirmed yet. Especially telling others to not let me talk. It's a clear sign of manipulation. The funny thing is that you even follow it up by saying that there's a "90% chance" of me being scum after being so completely convinced of me being scum just in that sentence before.
Post#145
You try to explain yourself and you are willing to think of the possibility that I'm town but it does not explain this absolute conviction you have shown before. There's a disparity between your explanation and your behaviour.
Post#149
Two manipulations in one post. First one is trying to instill the idea that Captain Luc is scum and allied to me. Second manipulation being the doc thing again. You do not even try to contribute in any different way.
Post#157
You bash Northrend for saying that I'll show up and then you use the timezone difference to explain your reasonings. Really? He made a good point and you should've used the time to pressure someone else until I show up and you immediately attack him for a good idea.
Post#181
An attempt to undermine discussions of the day and to focus town's attention on me again before I even made a post.
Post#182
That's not true and does not contribute at all.
Post#184
Once again trying to manipulate everyone to see me as definite scum. This time even using insults which have no use other than to see their reactions (which is why one of the possibilities for me was that this is a reaction test, but it can't be if she goes to such lengths to get me lynched). Also throwing around words like "obvious evil", more manipulation.
Post#185
Pure troll post. Most likely made to reinforce the impression that this is a new player. It's utterly worthless.
Post#187
Sad that you won't be confirmed town, rhetorical questions. Even misreading Dalaran's post slightly to say "Am I really the only "power" role?!". This post reeks of the same fakeness and another attempt to reinforce being new. At this point it has happened so often that I absolutely cannot believe it anymore.
Post#189
Gives short answers, does not comment on anything else. Her explanation on why she targeted me is very unsatisfying. I can't see someone like this signing up to this FM. Not giving a thought about her night action, not bothering to contribute, being very irritating. I'd imagine you'd look at the other games and see how they went before you played your first game (for example during the time you sign up and the start of the game there's lots of possibilities to check out different games).
Post#190
I can't take this post seriously at all. I colored my claim with a green color so it stands out. You can't tell me Princess wouldn't immediately think of Citizen when I say Footman. It's the only role that can't take an action and that every mafia player knows no matter if he played RL mafia, the arcade mod or elsewhere. It also suggests that it's D2 and she apparently hasn't taken a look into the setup to know this? Ultimately my conclusion is that it's just another low-effort post to seem new once again.
Post#191
She corrects herself but the "damage" is done.

I'll stop here because I have responded to her other comments already.

As much as I said that her claim seemed believable in the beginning, going over it in detail I feel like I made a 180 and I am a lot more sure that she's scum.

-vote M-FM Princess Calia Menethil

this guy is going to be so butthurt he just typed all that just to die.

[M-FM Plaguelands]

No but thats what you guys claim to do. you're just mad because these start every couple months and you lose day 2. peace out broha

This barely makes sense. So do you say we claim to check each post for inconsistencies before posting? If so, no, I don't. Scums would because they have to pretend to be someone else. And it's highly likely that scums will miss an inconsistency or two in their play which is why analyzing posts works.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

This barely makes sense. So do you say we claim to check each post for inconsistencies before posting? If so, no, I don't. Scums would because they have to pretend to be someone else. And it's highly likely that scums will miss an inconsistency or two in their play which is why analyzing posts works.

All im saying, is if i was evil, i would check my posts carefully before posting to make sure I didn't let some evidence slip I was evil. (you)

town has nothing to hide from being 100% honest and open. (me)

does that make sense to your tiny brain?

[M-FM Plaguelands]

Take a moment to consider the scenario's which plague mentioned. They are all potential reasons you could have indeed received this feedback and he could be a footman. This is why not everyone will immediately jump on the train and lynch. (That and whatever happens will hopefully happen 36 hours from now with a lot of talking in between)

Also just because it was not mentioned Princess could be controlled by a Ventriloquist. I also believe this is unlikely.

My vote stays on Lordaron although I do support this lynch.

Now that you mention the Ventriloquist, I find it super likely. Why do you find it unlikely? It's a possible role and has been played before. It'd make sense to possess Princess too just because she gave such a good foundation to work with based on her only post D1.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Now that you mention the Ventriloquist, I find it super likely. Why do you find it unlikely? It's a possible role and has been played before. It'd make sense to possess Princess too just because she gave such a good foundation to work with based on her only post D1.

yeah because i definitely don't seem like the person who'd make this as their avatar

[M-FM Plaguelands]

All im saying, is if i was evil, i would check my posts carefully before posting to make sure I didn't let some evidence slip I was evil. (you)

town has nothing to hide from being 100% honest and open. (me)

does that make sense to your tiny brain?

Yeah, if I was evil I'd do so too, that's what I said. And you literally just reversed the roles from what I said. How are you even bringing anything useful to the table? If you are truthfully a detective the only thing useful about you is your night action and even that would be wasted on you. I find it soooo likely that you are vented. I just really really wish that no player in their right mind would play like you do.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Yeah, if I was evil I'd do so too, that's what I said. And you literally just reversed the roles from what I said. How are you even bringing anything useful to the table? If you are truthfully a detective the only thing useful about you is your night action and even that would be wasted on you. I find it soooo likely that you are vented. I just really really wish that no player in their right mind would play like you do.

So I'm ruining your forum mafia in two ways?

[M-FM Dalaran]

Now that you mention the Ventriloquist, I find it super likely. Why do you find it unlikely? It's a possible role and has been played before. It'd make sense to possess Princess too just because she gave such a good foundation to work with based on her only post D1.

Its what I have been chewing on while I keep up with chat. In your situation I am fighting confirmation bias that you are town. I have always been against believing in obscure situations to justify that someone is town and I need to go back through your posts again to see how I read you. Right now I am just following the chat to see how I feel about whats said as its said without any kind of hindsight. I am not in any rush.

[M-FM Northrend]

this guy is going to be so butthurt he just typed all that just to die.

I guarantee he won't be lynched today.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

I guarantee he won't be lynched today.

well then fuck this shit

[M-FM Dalaran]

@Princess
Would you be willing to look at another player and say what you think of them? Try to put yourself in their shoes explaining why they would say what they said from your perspective.

[M-FM Northrend]

@Princess - contribute something useful, or hold your peace after your claim. You sound like a whiny 11 year old from SC2 Mafia which suggests a few things:

1) You're 11
2) You actually are Town but don't know how to play as Town
3) You're vented to act annoying as phuck to get yourself lynched

[M-FM Plaguelands]

So I'm ruining your forum mafia in two ways?

I can think of one way: You sign up to play FM but instead pretend like you just started a game of the SC2 mod.

My biggest gripe is that you are unwilling to put yourself in other people's shoes. You cannot see any other perspective and you do not even try to analyze anything or think about why someone would be doing a certain thing. The problem is not that you're new, the problem is that you're unwilling to play.

That is if you really are new and town. Which I find unlikely at this point as I said.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

I can think of one way: You sign up to play FM but instead pretend like you just started a game of the SC2 mod.

My biggest gripe is that you are unwilling to put yourself in other people's shoes. You cannot see any other perspective and you do not even try to analyze anything or think about why someone would be doing a certain thing. The problem is not that you're new, the problem is that you're unwilling to play.

That is if you really are new and town. Which I find unlikely at this point as I said.

I'm just trying to make sure everyone knows you're evil. I'm not going to empathize with you, because you're scum. Of course you point out the 5% chance of you not being scum.

I expect you to have said everything you've said so far, what else would you do, its your job. It's just pointless for me to play these games because I know that you're scum. People can either believe me, or not. But there are no guarantees there is another invest role at all.

That one guy coming out and saying he was healed, btw, means that I'm not the other evil team having "targeted" you for killing and noticed you were immune.

"M-FM Plaguelands visited Silvermoon last night."

"Silvermoon was found dead".

I'm sorry, but nothing will ever be 100% certain in this game, thats what makes it a game. If it was 100% certain this game would be not fun. I got, with only very unlikely things happening, that you are: LYING about your role, and VISITED the dead person. I can say with 90ish% certainty (probably more statistically if people targeted randomly, probably around 90% if people targeted based on day 1 chat) that you are scum.

And you know what? In mafia, if you are 90% someone is scum, thats about as sure as you are ever going to be.

Me "putting myself in your shoes" etc, and going along with your arguments will only fuel the towns doubts about my claim. I have nothing to gain from going along with your hypothetical scenarios. The only way I come out of this day on top, and as a success, is if you are dead by the end of it.

So please, town, take my 90% certainty, no chance of neutral roles, and trust my sincereity.

Plaguelands is a scum.

[M-FM King Magni Bronzebeard]

how would you feel if I said you were scum?

I'll be sad ;_;

[M-FM King Magni Bronzebeard]

I have two strong town reads and Princess is one of them. I will keep my vote on Plaguelands. From my experience, there are usually 1 really active scum from each team, 1 lurker scum, and the third could be either or between. That being said. I think Plaguelands is one of the active scum.

The only way for me to be convinced Plaguelands is town, is that someone else come up and defend Plaguelands.

[M-FM King Magni Bronzebeard]

Come on guys, lets get this day over with. Lynch the baddie and doc on me. Town wins, gg

It's better to maximize the day's length so we could talk and find any information from some of the lurkers.

[M-FM King Magni Bronzebeard]

Sounds more fun! Sucks that I won't be confirmed town though. Am I really the only "power" role?! Are the rest of you all citizens? ROLECALL

I am sure we have like 4-5 PRS and like 7 footmen.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

I am sure we have like 4-5 PRS and like 7 footmen.

Is that standard? Is the "random" a weighted random?

[M-FM Plaguelands]

I'm just trying to make sure everyone knows you're evil. I'm not going to empathize with you, because you're scum. Of course you point out the 5% chance of you not being scum.

I expect you to have said everything you've said so far, what else would you do, its your job. It's just pointless for me to play these games because I know that you're scum. People can either believe me, or not. But there are no guarantees there is another invest role at all.

That one guy coming out and saying he was healed, btw, means that I'm not the other evil team having "targeted" you for killing and noticed you were immune.

"M-FM Plaguelands visited Silvermoon last night."

"Silvermoon was found dead".

I'm sorry, but nothing will ever be 100% certain in this game, thats what makes it a game. If it was 100% certain this game would be not fun. I got, with only very unlikely things happening, that you are: LYING about your role, and VISITED the dead person. I can say with 90ish% certainty (probably more statistically if people targeted randomly, probably around 90% if people targeted based on day 1 chat) that you are scum.

And you know what? In mafia, if you are 90% someone is scum, thats about as sure as you are ever going to be.

Me "putting myself in your shoes" etc, and going along with your arguments will only fuel the towns doubts about my claim. I have nothing to gain from going along with your hypothetical scenarios. The only way I come out of this day on top, and as a success, is if you are dead by the end of it.

So please, town, take my 90% certainty, no chance of neutral roles, and trust my sincereity.

Plaguelands is a scum.

What I see in this post is a complete turnaround from your previous behaviour. You have purposefully avoided using your brain for the whole game and this is the first post where you've shown some thought and actually made arguments as to why I am scum. Good job.

Now, I somehow remembered to check the setup again because of your post so thanks to you.

There is a tailor in this game. I see this as the main thing that'd make this gambit work. It came to me an hour ago or something and as I wanted to check the setup I forgot what I wanted to do..
Let's say you are the Tailor (might just be an ally of you too). You dress me at night, push a lynch on me during the next day and BAM you are confirmed as a power role. How's that sound? The big reason why this is not so unlikely is because the Tailor is a fairly decent role but nothing too extraordinary. It's not like the Ventriloquist where you have to kind of double your activity and can possess someone (which is why this role is not used often, it's bothersome) and it has uses like these where you can try a gambit and if it works it pays off immensely.
Now if you also had a Ventriloquist on the same team then that'd just be the icing on the cake but that's not likely at all I think.

At this point I'm convinced that you're scum.

Regarding your post: If it's unlikely that an action interfered with your investigative result, what is the chance then that you found a killing scum on N1? The game of probability is a bitch because anything can be statistically unlikely. It's not a great argument. If you can base your probability on a bit of reasoning then that makes your claim a lot more sensible.
Besides, FM20 had some of the most statistically unlikely shit happening but it did happen. On N1 even. Two doctors using both of their two actions on the same targets, a Cult Leader recruiting a Scum Leader, the same Cult Leader getting found out by a Cop, the Bus Driver switching the Cult Leader's original target that was the Unique Beast role with the Scum Leader to make the Scum Leader recruit happen.. all on N1.

So stop holding onto this "90%" bullshit. It's pulled out of thin air. I mean who does that anyway? You don't just pick a completely random player to investigate as you did. Atleast I know I would never do that and I hope most of the people here would atleast agree about that..

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

What I see in this post is a complete turnaround from your previous behaviour. You have purposefully avoided using your brain for the whole game and this is the first post where you've shown some thought and actually made arguments as to why I am scum. Good job.

Now, I somehow remembered to check the setup again because of your post so thanks to you.

There is a tailor in this game. I see this as the main thing that'd make this gambit work. It came to me an hour ago or something and as I wanted to check the setup I forgot what I wanted to do..
Let's say you are the Tailor (might just be an ally of you too). You dress me at night, push a lynch on me during the next day and BAM you are confirmed as a power role. How's that sound? The big reason why this is not so unlikely is because the Tailor is a fairly decent role but nothing too extraordinary. It's not like the Ventriloquist where you have to kind of double your activity and can possess someone (which is why this role is not used often, it's bothersome) and it has uses like these where you can try a gambit and if it works it pays off immensely.
Now if you also had a Ventriloquist on the same team then that'd just be the icing on the cake but that's not likely at all I think.

At this point I'm convinced that you're scum.

Regarding your post: If it's unlikely that an action interfered with your investigative result, what is the chance then that you found a killing scum on N1? The game of probability is a bitch because anything can be statistically unlikely. It's not a great argument. If you can base your probability on a bit of reasoning then that makes your claim a lot more sensible.
Besides, FM20 had some of the most statistically unlikely shit happening but it did happen. On N1 even. Two doctors using both of their two actions on the same targets, a Cult Leader recruiting a Scum Leader, the same Cult Leader getting found out by a Cop, the Bus Driver switching the Cult Leader's original target that was the Unique Beast role with the Scum Leader to make the Scum Leader recruit happen.. all on N1.

So stop holding onto this "90%" bullshit. It's pulled out of thin air. I mean who does that anyway? You don't just pick a completely random player to investigate as you did. Atleast I know I would never do that and I hope most of the people here would atleast agree about that..

I don't know what else to say. Except you visited the dead. And I'm a detective. Seeing as how you think I am the one that is evil, leads me to believe you are 100% scum.

If town is smart they will hang you today. It would be a shame to waste an opportunity to lynch such lying scum.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

As for the argument of me being scum: If I was scum I would literally be the worst scum player ever. This is the exact opposite of how you be scum, if jester/exec is not possible. I have no out if you are town. with more town than scum, it would be retarded of me to do a 1 for 1 trade.

town, i beg of you. vote plaguelands as scum of the day

[M-FM Mal'ganis]

I am pretty certain that Princess believes their post for the very reason outlined by Plaguelands. It sounds like Princess is playing an Sc2mod. There is next to zero reason to claim that way if not a detective/tracker. If Plaguelands flips footman, Princess is next on the chopping block.

There are incredibly low odds of a witch or evil bus driver. A town bus driver would claim so Princess would have a real guilty, so we can eliminate that. If they were active enough to post the action, they are active enough to claim.

An evil bus driver would require the role to get zero feedback, which I think is inconsistent with bus driver in this setup. Does bus driving leave feedback?

A witch doesn't leave feedback, but the odds are remote. Plaguelands was very townie looking at the end of Day 1, so I doubt a scumteam would witch him to frame his as checking Plague is not that townie. Even removing the scenario of Plague being townread, that leaves a (1/19 * 1/17) chance for this scenario to be true.

My concern is we have a scum tracker who wanted to see if Plague was a PR. That makes a lot more sense than town tracking what appeared to be town.

[M-FM Plaguelands]

I don't know what else to say. Except you visited the dead. And I'm a detective. Seeing as how you think I am the one that is evil, leads me to believe you are 100% scum.

If town is smart they will hang you today. It would be a shame to waste an opportunity to lynch such lying scum.

Of course I would believe it the way you've been playing. I'd expect a new player to behave a loooot differently than you did and I'm reading you as scum. Not much to say about that. I've given a lot of thoughts and made lengthy posts, now it's up to the town to decide if they are inclined to believe me or not. Although there's still a lot of time to go back and forth on this.

I will try to find the time to make more reads either way, you'll see them in my last will (which will be public upon my death no matter when that will be). Will start on them after tomorrow my time though.

[M-FM Dalaran]

There is a tailor in this game. I see this as the main thing that'd make this gambit work. It came to me an hour ago or something and as I wanted to check the setup I forgot what I wanted to do..
Let's say you are the Tailor (might just be an ally of you too). You dress me at night, push a lynch on me during the next day and BAM you are confirmed as a power role. How's that sound? The big reason why this is not so unlikely is because the Tailor is a fairly decent role but nothing too extraordinary. It's not like the Ventriloquist where you have to kind of double your activity and can possess someone (which is why this role is not used often, it's bothersome) and it has uses like these where you can try a gambit and if it works it pays off immensely.
Now if you also had a Ventriloquist on the same team then that'd just be the icing on the cake but that's not likely at all I think.

At this point I'm convinced that you're scum.

I do not agree with this situation. If this was the case he would not have revealed first thing in the day. He probably would have waited to get a signal from his tailor that the night action went through.

[M-FM Plaguelands]

As for the argument of me being scum: If I was scum I would literally be the worst scum player ever. This is the exact opposite of how you be scum, if jester/exec is not possible. I have no out if you are town. with more town than scum, it would be retarded of me to do a 1 for 1 trade.

town, i beg of you. vote plaguelands as scum of the day

That's why I find the Tailor to be one of the very likely roles in the game. Otherwise this gambit would barely make sense for scum that wants to survive the game. It'd just backfire if I was footman but who knows what was planned anyway except for the scums.

[Spider]

Woof. Wish I had time to type. Woof.

I'm split, But I feel that the princesses input sounds real. Woof.

Problem is, Mafia can scum hunt since they have the other team to look for. So being a scum hunting town pro does not make you town. Woof.

Woof, also plagues abiboilt it high, so he the chef can really butter the bread. Woof.

[M-FM Plaguelands]

I do not agree with this situation. If this was the case he would not have revealed first thing in the day. He probably would have waited to get a signal from his tailor that the night action went through.

That'd be the case if he is the Tailor himself, which would make sense. Who else would you act out the gambit? I don't think there's any need to relay that task to anyone else except for the Tailor.

[M-FM Princess Calia Menethil]

Of course I would believe it the way you've been playing. I'd expect a new player to behave a loooot differently than you did and I'm reading you as scum. Not much to say about that. I've given a lot of thoughts and made lengthy posts, now it's up to the town to decide if they are inclined to believe me or not. Although there's still a lot of time to go back and forth on this.

I will try to find the time to make more reads either way, you'll see them in my last will (which will be public upon my death no matter when that will be). Will start on them after tomorrow my time though.

Yeah, and you fit the profile of a butthurt person who TRY HARD day 1 to come across as town, as layed out by mal'ganis above, so that no one would track you. You are now butthurt that you got tracked when a pro mafia player wouldn't of tracked you, and I have thus ruined your day.

Come on guys, only 5 votes for plaguelands so far... how many do we need to put him on trial?