Day 7: The Southern Raiders

[FM monster]

best chance to win is to lynch falsetruth

4v2v1v1v1
lynch falsetruth
4v2v1v1
maf kills town
3v2v1v1
lynch goonswarm
3v1v1v1
maf kills town
2v1v1v1
lynch last mafia which is severn since crimson's results cleared monster
2v1v1
lynch hama

Inho, the best chance allows YOU to win, but I suspect you as scum

[FM FalseTruth]

No, you win if we lynch Spy today, both you and Mafia kill a towny tonight, and we lynch Mafia tomorrow. Unless S.A.S. gets to 3 cabbages, that is.

I promise not to kill a Townie.

[FM Ozymandias]

Rumpel, claim.

I need to reread Severn and monster's claims quickly before bed.

[FM Ozymandias]

I promise not to kill a Townie.

Playing against win condition.

Plus scum can't win if we just lynch you now. Sorry.

[FM Ozymandias]

Inho, the best chance allows YOU to win, but I suspect you as scum

You stand by Citizen claim, yes?

No secret roles you want to reveal?

[FM FalseTruth]

Playing against win condition.

Plus scum can't win if we just lynch you now. Sorry.

*Has sadz.*

[FM Ozymandias]

monster, vote FalseTruth before you leave.

You can AFK the rest of today as far as I care, as long as you vote FalseTruth right now.

Prove to me that you are town.

[FM Rumpel]

Claim.

truthseer, executioner and doctor

n1 checked zack he's not lying
n1 gets visited by avatar AKA zack himself to get executioner
executioner target is you

n2 checked ganondorf he's lying

n3 checked mrsmarter he's not lying

n4 did nothing because no more gang posts

n5 got doctor from grand iroh aka vornskr, did nothing

n6 healed vornskr

[FM monster]

monster, vote FalseTruth before you leave.

You can AFK the rest of today as far as I care, as long as you vote FalseTruth right now.

Prove to me that you are town.

Sounds like a fair deal to me. I told you already that someone is not who you think he is... You tried to lynch me because you thought that FalseTruth is town.

-vote FM FalseTruth

[FM Ozymandias]

truthseer, executioner and doctor

n1 checked zack he's not lying
n1 gets visited by avatar AKA zack himself to get executioner
executioner target is you

n2 checked ganondorf he's lying

n3 checked mrsmarter he's not lying

n4 did nothing because no more gang posts

n5 got doctor from grand iroh aka vornskr, did nothing

n6 healed vornskr

You are the Kidnapper.

I'm about 90% certain.

You say that n4 and n5 you took no action despite the fact that your primary role is Truthseer. You blame this on "no more Gang posts." Yet there's a Gaang post on day 1 (by someone that is currently lead candidate for Evil Neutral).

Here is day 4 Gaang posts:
Spy: link

Here are good day 4 claims in Toph-friendly posts:
Yayap: link

S.A.S.Cnl Alpha: link

Narks: link
link

Gerik: link

So you're saying that rather than check any of those posts for lies that would have potentially revealed scum, you chose to take no action at all. By the way, I stopped compiling claims halfway through day 4 thread because there were so many you could have checked. I feel like my point is made.

Were you afraid of MM? Because Truthseeing doesn't cause visitation. This was posted publicly in threads and chat earlier in the game, and I kind of doubt you wouldn't ask the host yourself via PM if you weren't sure.

So night 4, you decided to just do nothing even though your Truthseeing was a completely safe way to help town.

Then you did it again on night 5, despite THESE posts:

Ozymandias: link, link

Crimson: link, link

vornksr: link,

Severn: link -- You think this guy is the last Mafia, but on Night 5, you did nothing instead of proving it

Here's something I noticed on day 4:
link

Day 4, a Mafia member had ME pegged as Grand Lotus. In other words, Mafia probably didn't know who the Grand Lotus was. In fact, I know for sure they didn't because I know all of vornksr's night actions. He didn't visit any Mafia members. They had no clue who he was.

Night 5, he visited you. Night 6, Jailor (previously unseen) kills him.

Now, Zack gave Narks Caprogime Night 4. Night 5, Caprogime could have retrained Jailor. Jailor COULD have jailed vorn night 6.

But I think it's far more likely (given your poor claim), that you're the Kidnapper, that vornksr gave you kidnapper night 5, and that you jailed and killed him as soon as you found out who he was.

Oh well; we don't need to lynch you today, and there's an easy way to find out if you're lying or not.

But for now, I'm penciling you in as Kidnapper.

So:

Spoiler : Best Case Scenario :

Hidden Fire Nation - Consort - Goonswarm
Hidden Fire Nation - Kidnapper - Rumpel

Combustion Man (Mass Murderer) - FalseTruth
Hama (Hidden Neutral Evil) - Spy

Hidden Gaang - Ozymandias
Hidden Gaang - Crimson
Hidden Gaang - Severn
Hidden Gaang - monster

Cabbage Merchant (Hidden Benign) - S.A.S.Cnl Alpha

LYNCH:
FalseTruth

Night actions:
Mafia kills town via normal night kill

Next day:

2 Mafia members remain
3 town members remain.
Hama remains.
Cabbage merchant remains.

LYNCH:
Goonswarm

Night actions:
Mafia kills town via normal night kill

Next day:

1 Mafia member remains
2 Town members remain
Hama remains
Cabbage merchant remains

LYNCH:
Hama

Night actions:
Mafia kills town via normal night kill.

Next day:

1 Mafia member remains
1 town member remains
Cabbage merchant remains

LYNCH:
Mafia member

Result:
Town wins, or Cabbage Merchant wins alone.

That's how town wins.

And if you're really Doctor, maybe you'll save a towny tonight or tomorrow night. I mean, if you're really a Doctor, you'll probably die first. But there's always tonight!

[FM Ozymandias]

Sounds like a fair deal to me. I told you already that someone is not who you think he is... You tried to lynch me because you thought that FalseTruth is town.

-vote FM FalseTruth

Yeah, I was wrong.

Also, you should still probably make at least 5 posts, in case the hosts get all mod-killy.

I need you to vote tomorrow, too! xD

[FM Rumpel]

ok that was really stupid i cri now

[FM Rumpel]

i forgot how truthseer can check posts other than I am part of the Gaang


now 100% no one will believe me but plz i hope night action can confirm

[FM Ozymandias]

Now I will prove I'm town.

My primary role is Citizen. Iroh also gave me White Lotus.

Here are vornksr's night actions:

n1 yayap n2 crimson n3 guard zack n4 ozymandias n5 rumpel

Zack targeted vornksr on night 2.

I'm not going to say whether or not Zack visited me. I guess Mafia will just have to find out tonight!

Iroh also asked me to post this if he died:

hey coroner/amne/scum/neutral!

yes it's me, the grand lotus, the dragon of the west, the great general iroh!

if you're town you'll see my actions anyway, so i dont include them. just in case you're wondering about night 3, i thought the fire nation would ignite aang and i wanted to one hit kill the phoenix king and save aang

should you still wonder why i never contributed more, i had to stay low ofc
but hey don't complain, i still shared what i found important to share, like when i made a big analysis forcing the consig to reveal untimately leading to his lynch. but no one is much helped if i give some reads on people and be dead next day, not being able to make anymore reads or night actions.
like i said in daychat, i only contributed as much as necessary, to make sure town doesnt fuck up


town/scum list:

category 1 (sure town)
FM Crimson
FM Gerik
FM Yayap
FM Zack
FM Narks
FM Ozymandias

category 2 (probably town)


category 3 (leaning town)
FM oops_ur_dead
FM Procyon

category 4 (next best scum suspects if one of the lower ones is town)
FM philie
FM Spy

category 5 (probably scum)
FM Goonswarm
FM monster
FM FalseTruth
FM NorthStar
FM Severn (guess mm)
FM Rumpel (guess hama)



and of course our neutral benign FM S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha


it makes me very sad that i never got to reopen my tea shop
but you can find me in the spirit world drinking tea
it was an honor serving with you (and serving you tea)
iroh out

[FM Ozymandias]

i forgot how truthseer can check posts other than I am part of the Gaang


now 100% no one will believe me but plz i hope night action can confirm

Since we'll be lynching you last, it doesn't matter much. Depending on who winds up dead, we can be fairly certain whether or not you're scum later. My last will can clarify.

But yes, I definitely don't believe your claim, and no one else should either.

[FM Rumpel]

Yeah, I was wrong.

Also, you should still probably make at least 5 posts, in case the hosts get all mod-killy.

I need you to vote tomorrow, too! xD

Since we'll be lynching you last, it doesn't matter much. Depending on who winds up dead, we can be fairly certain whether or not you're scum later. My last will can clarify.

But yes, I definitely don't believe your claim, and no one else should either.

fair enough i'll prove it sooner or later

[FM Ozymandias]

fair enough i'll prove it sooner or later

Looking forward to it.

[FM Ozymandias]

Other scenarios:

Spoiler : Lynch Goonswarm today :

Hidden Fire Nation - Consort - Goonswarm
Hidden Fire Nation - Kidnapper - Rumpel

Combustion Man (Mass Murderer) - FalseTruth
Hama (Hidden Neutral Evil) - Spy

Hidden Gaang - Ozymandias
Hidden Gaang - Crimson
Hidden Gaang - monster
Hidden Gaang - Severn

Cabbage Merchant (Hidden Benign) - S.A.S.Cnl Alpha

LYNCH:
Goonswarm

Night actions:
MM kills 1 towny
Mafia kills 1 towny

Next day:
2 town members remain
1 Mafia member remains
Combustion Man remains
Hama remains
Cabbage Merchant remains

LYNCH:
FalseTruth

Night action:
Mafia kills 1 towny

Next day:
1 town member remains
1 mafia member remains
Hama remains
Cabbage Merchant remains

LYNCH:
Mafia member

Next day:
Hama remains
1 town member remains
Cabbage merchant remains

Result:
If town fire benders are dead, Hama wins.
If Cabbage Merchant has 3 and survived, he wins alone
If Cabbage Merchant doesn’t have 3 and swings town, town wins with Cabbage Merchant

Spoiler : Lynch Spy Today :

Hidden Fire Nation - Consort - Goonswarm
Hidden Fire Nation - Kidnapper - Rumpel

Combustion Man (Mass Murderer) - FalseTruth
Hama (Hidden Neutral Evil) - Spy

Hidden Gaang - Ozymandias
Hidden Gaang - Crimson
Hidden Gaang - monster
Hidden Gaang - Severn

Cabbage Merchant (Hidden Benign) - S.A.S.Cnl Alpha

LYNCH:
Hama

Night actions:
MM kills 1 towny
Mafia kills 1 towny

Next day:
2 town members remain
2 Mafia members remain
Combustion Man remains

Lynch:
FalseTruth
Mafia wins

OR

Lynch:
Mafia member

Night actions:
Combustion Man kills remaining Mafia
Mafia kills town member

Next day:
Combustion Man wins

[FM FalseTruth]

I promised not to kill any Townies. Scout's honor.

You do know what Kingmaker means, right?

[FM FalseTruth]

Lynch Spy. Tonight I'll go after the Scum of your choice.

[FM S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

Okay, we are close to wrapping this up. We could make some good progress. Definitely agree with the FM FalseTruth lynch. The next days all depend on if we have correctly judged the situation and deduced our correct targets. But we got lots of information so that's fine.

Rumpel's claim is definitely fishy, you found good counterarguments regarding the suspicious no-checks of N4 and N5 Ozy so I'd arrive at the same conclusion as you did.

-vote FM FalseTruth

[FM Ozymandias]

S.A.S., you have two cabbages now, yeah?

[FM S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

S.A.S., you have two cabbages now, yeah?

Uhu. I expect to get visited soon. Or else.. hue. I likely have enough charges to last until the end of the game.

[FM S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

To be exact I will have 2 after tonight. Lost all my cabbages at 3 so math checks out now.

[FM Crimson]

why doesn't false just visit rumple? and give him a nice spree?

[FM Ozymandias]

why doesn't false just visit rumple? and give him a nice spree?

Too risky. False can't win unless two town die tonight. Even if he wants to be Kingmaker for town, S.A.S. already fills that role. Safest option for town is lynch False today to reduce KPN, lynch Mafia tomorrow, and then lynch either Hama or final Mafia (if town fire bender is still alive).

[FM Ozymandias]

Also, if Hama interferes to prevent the spree, Mafia still kills a towny and we lose majority.

Lynching MM today is the only way.

[FM Crimson]

-vote FM falsetruth

[FM Ozymandias]

best chance to win is to lynch falsetruth

4v2v1v1v1
lynch falsetruth
4v2v1v1
maf kills town
3v2v1v1
lynch goonswarm
3v1v1v1
maf kills town
2v1v1v1
lynch last mafia which is severn since crimson's results cleared monster
2v1v1
lynch hama

Also vote for FalseTruth.

And Severn needs to post and vote.

[FM Spy]

-vote FM Falsetruth

[FM Severn]

-vote FM Falsetruth

We can still win this?
and if mafia kills the remaining firebender, hama wins. Interesting

[FM Ozymandias]

-vote FM Falsetruth

We can still win this?
and if mafia kills the remaining firebender, hama wins. Interesting

No, because Mafia are fire benders. If town fire bender dies AND town kills all Mafia, Hama wins.

[FM Rumpel]

-vote FM Falsetruth

[FM Goonswarm]

I claim Ignorance

[FM Goonswarm]

-vote FM Severn

Cuz yeah. pineapples and shit

[FM Severn]

is the 5 post minimum still in effect?

Would be dumb for towN to lose cuz of ththat

[FM S.A.S.Cnl.Alpha]

I'd guess in the last stage of the game they would be a bit lenient with it but who knows.

[FM Ozymandias]

Townies should post 5 times. I don't want to lose from modkills. Especially because:

truthseer, executioner and doctor

n1 checked zack he's not lying
n1 gets visited by avatar AKA zack himself to get executioner
executioner target is you

n2 checked ganondorf he's lying

n3 checked mrsmarter he's not lying

n4 did nothing because no more gang posts

n5 got doctor from grand iroh aka vornskr, did nothing

n6 healed vornskr

And after PMing the host, I know for certain that you are Kidnapper.

@Roku: Sorry to make you answer twice, but:
Does a Kidnapper's execution bypass a Doctor healing?

Vornksr died the night you "healed" him.

Mafia:
Goonswarm
Rumpel

Town:
Ozymandias
Crimson
Monster
Severn

Combustion Man:
FalseTruth

Hama:
Spy

Cabbage Merchant:
S.A.S.Cnl Alpha

[FM Crimson]

i just looks at how endgame could go.......

loled hama has a chance of winning still after this

[Slaol]

is the 5 post minimum still in effect?

Would be dumb for towN to lose cuz of ththat

In football a quarter of play can not end on a defensive penalty.
Meaning punishment for rule breaking can not be avoided, regardless of closeness to the finish.

[Slaol]

Townies should post 5 times. I don't want to lose from modkills. Especially because:



And after PMing the host, I know for certain that you are Kidnapper.

@Roku: Sorry to make you answer twice, but:
Does a Kidnapper's execution bypass a Doctor healing?

Vornksr died the night you "healed" him.

Mafia:
Goonswarm
Rumpel

Town:
Ozymandias
Crimson
Monster
Severn

Combustion Man:
FalseTruth

Hama:
Spy

Cabbage Merchant:
S.A.S.Cnl Alpha

I had intended for it to, but my wording on the role card does not say it does, and as such Roku has chosen that it doesn't. Execution bypasses a person's own Invulnerability, not healing or protection given by a third party

[Slaol]

I claim Ignorance

This is not a question.

[FM Severn]

i am part of the gaang

[FM Severn]

I am also not blackmaileD. Okay thats 4

[FM Crimson]

The ironic thing is out beloved avatar has already stated that they were more laxed on it on another day after the first wave of modkills

[FM Rumpel]

I had intended for it to, but my wording on the role card does not say it does, and as such Roku has chosen that it doesn't. Execution bypasses a person's own Invulnerability, not healing or protection given by a third party

oh well im fucked

[FM Rumpel]

im rooting for S.A.S to solo win go turtle! go cabbage merchant! go survivor!

[FM Severn]

Man almost all the people who jumped on my initial train were scum

[FM Rumpel]

-unvote

[FM FalseTruth]

Can write my own lynch scene?

Is there a dead thread?