Night 5 - Did we do it?

[FM Bear King]

OMG that play.....

All that we have to do now is wait.

Kill Basil Hawkens

Lets hope the CP9 listens to me, and the arsonist douses.

[FM Bear King]

Lets hope the CP9 listens to me, and the arsonist ignites.

typo

[FM Bear King]

Sanji is a CP9 member I think, since I got RB feedback but still killed.

He is the DD.

[FM Bear King]

>Night post has been made
>Sees Arsonist was lynched

Fuck

[FM Bear King]

Thats okay. Lets reassess the situation.

We have 22 players left.

Pirates - 2 Players
FM Crocodile
FM X Drake

Marines - 2 Players
FM Cat Thief Nami
FM Marco the Phoenix

CP9 - 4 Players
FM Black Leg Sanji
and I guess:
FM Soul King Brook
FM Don Krieg

Revo - 1 Player
FM Tony Tony Chopper

Town - 12 Players
FM Basil Hawkins - Doctor
FM Jewelry Bonney - Journalist
FM Dracule Mihawk - Coroner
FM Wet Haired Caribou - Most likely the other TPR (Veteran/Mayor)
FM Bartholomew Kuma
FM Blackbeard
FM Buggy the Clown
FM Donquixote Doflamingo
FM Fire Fist Ace
FM Gecko Moria
FM Jimbei
FM Red Haired Shanks
FM Straw Hat Luffy


Neutral - 1 Player
FM Roronoa Zoro - Executioner (Target is FM Bonney)

I hate to say it, but town is in a good position if the Marines side with them. We have to hope that the Marines stay short sighted enough to want to win with the CP9.

Assuming two town members die, we are looking at:
The Best Case scenario:
All factions + neutral VS Town:
10 VS 10 (No lynch? Town lynch?)
This requires that the factions stand together, which will most likely not happen. No way the revo will side with CP9 xD.

The Most Likely scenario:
CP9+Pirates+Marines VS Town+Revos (with the neutral walking back and forth)
8 VS 11 (or 9(neutral) VS 11 or 8 VS 12(neutral))
Most likely we will see this. We will have to bide our time and wait for another night. We should try and force a mis-lynch. Be thinking about a possible town target to mislynch.

The Worst Case scenario:
CP9+Pirates VS Town+Revos+Marines (with the neutral walking back and forth)
6 VS 13 (or 7(neutral) VS 13 or 6 VS 14(neutral))
We are fucked if this happens. The Marines cannot realize this is a possibly. XDrake is checked by the NA.

Clean Basil Hawkens

God my mind is going a million miles a minute.....

I will continue to act ventriloed, we need to use the fear of a disguiser cause a mislynch.

If we can get that mislynch, and two more town kills, we should have the game...otherwise we need to do some serious thinking.

[FM Bear King]

I was asked to make another interview.

This is fantastic.

[FM Bear King]

Thats okay. Lets reassess the situation.

We have 22 players left.

Pirates - 2 Players
FM Crocodile
FM X Drake

Marines - 2 Players
FM Cat Thief Nami
FM Marco the Phoenix

CP9 - 4 Players
FM Black Leg Sanji
and I guess:
FM Soul King Brook
FM Don Krieg
FM Fire Fist Ace

Revo - 1 Player
FM Tony Tony Chopper

Town - 12 Players
FM Basil Hawkins - Doctor
FM Jewelry Bonney - Journalist
FM Dracule Mihawk - Coroner
FM Wet Haired Caribou - Most likely the other TPR (Veteran/Mayor)
FM Bartholomew Kuma
FM Blackbeard
FM Buggy the Clown
FM Donquixote Doflamingo
FM Gecko Moria
FM Jimbei
FM Red Haired Shanks
FM Straw Hat Luffy


Neutral - 1 Player
FM Roronoa Zoro - Executioner (Target is FM Bonney)

I hate to say it, but town is in a good position if the Marines side with them. We have to hope that the Marines stay short sighted enough to want to win with the CP9.

Assuming two town members die, we are looking at:
The Best Case scenario:
All factions + neutral VS Town:
10 VS 10 (No lynch? Town lynch?)
This requires that the factions stand together, which will most likely not happen. No way the revo will side with CP9 xD.

The Most Likely scenario:
CP9+Pirates+Marines VS Town+Revos (with the neutral walking back and forth)
8 VS 11 (or 9(neutral) VS 11 or 8 VS 12(neutral))
Most likely we will see this. We will have to bide our time and wait for another night. We should try and force a mis-lynch. Be thinking about a possible town target to mislynch.

The Worst Case scenario:
CP9+Pirates VS Town+Revos+Marines (with the neutral walking back and forth)
6 VS 13 (or 7(neutral) VS 13 or 6 VS 14(neutral))
We are fucked if this happens. The Marines cannot realize this is a possibly. XDrake is checked by the NA.

Clean Basil Hawkens

God my mind is going a million miles a minute.....

I will continue to act ventriloed, we need to use the fear of a disguiser cause a mislynch.

If we can get that mislynch, and two more town kills, we should have the game...otherwise we need to do some serious thinking.

I missed the last CP9 member, I left him in the Town list. My numbers aren't affected.

[FM Ferengi]

Hm. What you were asked to do before, Bear King? You should be more active than usual.