Guessing Ahead

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I. Introduction

The art of guessing ahead is not an ability that one can simply learn, it is a skill that one must acquire through rigorous training and experience.

This tutorial is not a guide for learning said-skill, it is a manual to help oneself into bettering their abilities of analysis.


II. The first step

The first step to bettering yourself for the future is to remember, there is no first step (Well, there's one but...).

While they may seem ordered and organized, these numerals are nothing more than an easy way to jump around the guide. Only the first introduction is ordered.

This concludes the tutorial for reading the tutorial.


III. Table of Contents

As mentioned before, these roman numerals serve as nothing more than a way to organize the tutorial. Below, you will find the table of contents:

(No table yet)
[1000] Introduction to Guessing Ahead

Sometimes while playing Mafia, you'll encounter situations where you're forced to conjure a piece of information with a limited amount of evidence. During these situations, the jury will most likely vote against your opinions (lynch-trains), usually resulting in your death.

Please note that this information is based around a situation in which you will have little to no information. This is relevant around the early days (1-3), where few players have any evidence to support themselves.


[0100] "I am Jester"

Usually, when players are in a sticky situation, the first thing they'll do is claim another role. The most role for role-claiming, unsurprisingly, is the Jester.

If you've managed to pull this off once and were successful, good for you. If you're thinking of using this tactic again in a legitimate game, stop reading this tutorial and kill yourself.

#Tips: "-suicide" can be used to kill yourself in-game. However, leaving the game before it finishes will not reward points (leaving after getting kill gives points).

One should never claim Jester, especially when they're in a dangerous situation. Not only is the Jester an enemy of ever faction, but claiming to be one will result in the complete loss of respect from every Town member in the game.

The same logic applies to Survivors as well. Claiming to be a Survivor, while not as harsh as the Jester, will still result in an immediate lynch. Town and Mafia members alike loathe Survivors, especially when the late-game starts. In a 3-players-left situation, leaving a surviving Survivor is like playing Russian Roulette. Only he can decide the fate of the game.


[1001] Analysis

While up on the chopping board (Guilty -/- Not Guilty), the amount of time that one gets is severely limited. The first thing that pops up through the head of a player will be to scan the Graveyard and cough out relevant information.

This is the wrong thing to do.

You shouldn't be scanning through and trying to guess what will happen, especially when you have no information. You need to create a story and stick with it:

1. Identify whether you want to be known to the Town (Sheriff, Mayor, Detective), or remain hidden (Doctor, Arsonist, Mafia).
2. If the 2nd option was chosen, then create a false identity (role) for yourself.
3. Use facts based on your previous actions and role to create a possible image.
4. If you're a role incapable of Night Actions, then don't claim a role capable of said actions. Detectives are capable of calling you out due to their ability.
5. If you're a role capable of Night Actions, then don't claim a role incapable of them. A random Lookout can easily call this out and break your reasoning.
6. Never claim to have made an imaginary action. However, you can lie about the results of your previous actions.
7. If you're not intent on claiming a role, try to buy as much time as possible. Don't insult the other parties, appease towards them and give them facts.
8. If you're lucky, a reasonable player will take your claims seriously, and you may be spared. Don't doubt the power of a single individual.

#Tips: The Executioner is the most flexible role to lie as in Mafia. Unfortunately, he can't visit people and his invincibility is a hit-or-miss depending on the host.

(Beware the nice ones indeed...)


[0110] Accuracy

Should you ever encounter a situation where you must lie, you must think to yourself:

"Should I really be lying?"

If your answer was yes, then go ahead and shoot yourself.

#Tips: While dead, the "-roulette" command can be used to initiate a mini-game involving a revolver and a set amount of bullets. While playing the game, try to fire the highest amount of bullets to yourself you're comfortable with, as doing so will bring you the highest chance of success.

If your answer was yes, then continue reading this segment.

The best way to master lying is to think that you're not lying. By implementing this thought in your mind, lies will come off naturally, increasing the power of your words.

While lying, you need to remember the basic steps of the deception. Always base a lie off of the truth. Creating a lie based on nothing will not only create holes, but doing so may result in the collapse of your logical foundation.

As I've mentioned before, you should follow these instructions:

If you're a role who cannot visit others, don't claim to be one who can.

If you're a role who can visit others, don't claim to be one who can't.

As long as you can keep your information intact without holes, you can keep a lie up.

Should someone present credible evidence against you, don't try to deny it.

Changing an action is impossible. Changing an outcome however, is something that anyone can do.

All it takes is a little imagination, and some knowledge about the game.



This guide is incomplete and will, in time, be updated.