S-FM 347: Lazzy

[ikarusdk]

-vote FM-Mabel Pines

Just realised I misspelt Mabel's name in my original vote...

[ikarusdk]

I don't know exactly how this works, but the set up says during day 1, 3 votes instead of 4 will hammer the vote and close the thread immediately, so maybe I should just unvote and vote again after I review other posts in the morning.

-unvote

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I think anyone can make general observations like that. Seems like a very simple way for scum to coast.

Varcron claimed sheriff though

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I also would like to ask if this is a serious claim. You haven't answered Varcron yet, but questioning SB on not answering your question feels tad bit weird

No, it's obviously not a serious claim

[FM-Mabel Pines]

What makes you to townread Oliver based on what he said? He literally said nothing of importance.

oliver was willing to make some sort of reads. As of that post the other players in the game did:
You: Just insisted you were town - that's it, nothing else
Trout: Just joking around and voted a town
Stealth: Voted the sheriff


So yes, as of that post oliver was the towniest player in the game.


Now question for you: why do you think that the first player willing to actually make some sort of coherent read on the game is going to be mafia? Wouldn't mafia here love to let the game just be as stagnant as it's been rather than trying to stir the pot?

Given that it takes only 3 votes to kill people and mafia have two votes, why were you willing to gamble on day 1 by voting me? In fact - you weren't only the first vote, you were the second vote.
As town, why did you have no natural fear of voting incorrectly here resulting in a miselimination?
Did you really see enough for you to be so confident?

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Disagree with all of this

Ikar is the towniest player right now, trying to be useful and questioning where he needs to question. You have yet to address my question to you which brings obvious red flags and a more scum oriented read on yourself.

You're sheriff so it's a waste of time to argue with you - but as of that post point out a single townie thing that Ikar did.

Maybe you're confirmation biasing ikar to be town based off of the fact that you (somehow) thought my sheriff claim was serious and therefore you viewed ikar sussing me to be someone sussing scum?

But do you not remember the previous time this game was run?

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Maybe the team is just oliver / stealth

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Trout's posts are funny - I like him so far. I put him at either town or has played FM before elsewhere.

The way he attacks ikar for sheeping him is something that you almost never see from a new scum. It's possible that due to a lack of content in this game getting good reads will be difficult and he managed to pull a clever move earning himself a townread, or it's possible that he's undersold his past FM experience. But either way I don't think I ever kill there today - which is unfortunate since he's currently voting me.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

-vote oliverz144

I think this is the best chance of a hit at this point.

Stealth is a pretty good target too, but I'd pretty much always kill oliver day 1 over stealth when they're of equal scumminess.

I have some concerns with ikar but I can see some glimpses of towny thought there.

Would not kill Trout today. Varc is the sheriff.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Only 10 hours left in the day and there's no guarantee we'll even see a number of players again.

The struggle of a low activity game.



(There is pain behind this dance)

[Trout]

-unvote

but i wont be going any easier on you

[Trout]

your silence will have been nothing short of eternal if you don't face your actions soon

-vote oliverz144

[Stealthbomber16]

Cool.

-unvote

I need to see a little bit more from oli, but I’m confidently declaring ikarus town here.

[Stealthbomber16]

Currently more likely to flip on Mabel than oli

[Trout]

Cool.

-unvote

I need to see a little bit more from oli, but I’m confidently declaring ikarus town here.

Ohhh so that previous vote was all just a tactical distraction then? A suggestion you implanted in our minds that once you flip Mafia we shouldn't vote Mabel afterwards because "you pushed her that one time." Alright, thanks for the transparence Mr. Confident

[Stealthbomber16]

Ohhh so that previous vote was all just a tactical distraction then? A suggestion you implanted in our minds that once you flip Mafia we shouldn't vote Mabel afterwards because "you pushed her that one time." Alright, thanks for the transparence Mr. Confident

You aren’t supposed to edit your posts.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Stealth, if you're town here you're going to need to step up. You're playing in pretty much the exact way I would expect a scum~you to play with the hard coasting and lack of depth on any of your reads. Especially if the team actually just is you and Oliver.

[Trout]

You aren’t supposed to edit your posts.

no edit was made, i accidentally opened up the editing ui and pressed save to exit out of it. i didnt change anything yet it still showed up as an edit

[Stealthbomber16]

Stealth, if you're town here you're going to need to step up. You're playing in pretty much the exact way I would expect a scum~you to play with the hard coasting and lack of depth on any of your reads. Especially if the team actually just is you and Oliver.

For what it’s worth me showing up late was literally just me forgetting that the game started because I’ve been focused on moving.

There is not much to analyze and I do feel like I’ve been having thoughts and stirring up the thread significantly, even if my thoughts were not the best.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I was thinking, "how do I expect stealth to play if he were town here"
And my conclusion was that you would recognize the need to bring some life into the game state and probably try to get a better read on me.

As scum I expected you to just coast and probably just scum read me and move on.

Now I've been wrong on you before, but you were also wrong on me, so if you're town, step up

What do you find townie about Oliver?
Why do you not want to kill a player that has at the very least >rand wolf equity that has also min posted and peaced out for the day?

Why do you have so much more confidence in flipping me today when a miss on me is probably just a loss whereas a miss on Oliver is whatever - he's not playing anyway?

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Oliver at this point is barely playing the game. That's well within his wolf range eg American flag Nightless

Maybe he comes back, maybe he doesn't, but as of right now I'm seeing pretty solid woof equity there that also has a consolation prize of trimming a dead weight town that's not playing when we miss

[FM-Mabel Pines]

For what it’s worth me showing up late was literally just me forgetting that the game started because I’ve been focused on moving.

There is not much to analyze and I do feel like I’ve been having thoughts and stirring up the thread significantly, even if my thoughts were not the best.

It's a low player count game, you are 20% of the players with unconfirmed alignment, if you play with your reads and reasoning held close to your chest you're being anti town. We don't have the activity level for some players to play coy with their takes

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Also fmpov I know for a fact that you wanting to kill me over Oliver is aggressively anti-town
At best Oliver is a woof and at worst I'm better to be kept alive as town. You can deduce that too, so I want to hear from you why you think Oliver isn't the best chop

[Stealthbomber16]

I was thinking, "how do I expect stealth to play if he were town here"
And my conclusion was that you would recognize the need to bring some life into the game state and probably try to get a better read on me.

As scum I expected you to just coast and probably just scum read me and move on.

Now I've been wrong on you before, but you were also wrong on me, so if you're town, step up

What do you find townie about Oliver?
Why do you not want to kill a player that has at the very least >rand wolf equity that has also min posted and peaced out for the day?

Why do you have so much more confidence in flipping me today when a miss on me is probably just a loss whereas a miss on Oliver is whatever - he's not playing anyway?

Alright. Definitely not a fan of this post. You’re calling me scum for daring to scumread you even though I haven’t even put a vote on you.

You think I haven’t been trying to get more posts in? What do you think my entrance was? I come in, put a strange vote down, and invite discussion in. There’s only so many things to comment on with 25 posts in the game. I created more and it feels like it’s worked.

If I were a betting man I’d bet that you’re setting yourself up to justify a vote on me before EoD by making a fake progression case about why it’s so bad to call you scum right now.

I’m going to come back in a few hours and respond to everything else you’re posting. I don’t have time right now.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

The reason why I expected a scum stealth to wolfread me is because he probably recognizes that in the biggest threat in this playerlist and with two votes wolves only need to convince a single town which is very doable with 3 people to sway.

A town stealth might scumread me too, he's done it before even when we were t/t but a town stealth absolutely has detailed reasons for it - he always, always, always does!

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Alright. Definitely not a fan of this post. You’re calling me scum for daring to scumread you even though I haven’t even put a vote on you.

You think I haven’t been trying to get more posts in? What do you think my entrance was? I come in, put a strange vote down, and invite discussion in. There’s only so many things to comment on with 25 posts in the game. I created more and it feels like it’s worked.

If I were a betting man I’d bet that you’re setting yourself up to justify a vote on me before EoD by making a fake progression case about why it’s so bad to call you scum right now.

I’m going to come back in a few hours and respond to everything else you’re posting. I don’t have time right now.

I'm not calling you scum, I'm asking you questions. I even explained that POV in my post I posted at the same time as this one.

If you're town don't rehash election day where we were both town. I'm asking you for reasons, don't get caught up on OMGUS!

I took no issue with your reaction test vote on varcron. And I don't plan on voting you today at all, you're the least polarized player on this list other than me and I don't want to make that gamble when I know for a fact that there is a wolf among the more polarized set of (trout, ikar, Oliver)

And just looking at those 3- wow Oliver looks really bad

[Trout]

The reason why I expected a scum stealth to wolfread me is because he probably recognizes that in the biggest threat in this playerlist and with two votes wolves only need to convince a single town which is very doable with 3 people to sway.

A town stealth might scumread me too, he's done it before even when we were t/t but a town stealth absolutely has detailed reasons for it - he always, always, always does!

have you played with anyone else here? how do They usually behave? asking for a friend

a very harmless friend that won't use information against anyone

[FM-Mabel Pines]

@Stealthbomber16

If there's a single post you read, it should be this one:


Going into this game I was very much hoping for a townrand as there are a lot of polarized players in this playerlist that I thought would give town good chances to win. I was also hoping that either you or Varcron randed the sheriff as I think you two are the least polarized players on this list other than me. And both of those things happened! Basically the dream rand!

So now some facts that I think we can both agree on:
- You are not a polarized player - you have a history of snowing towns as wolf and the expectation that you can be read easily day 1 is just false, especially in a game with such minimal content as this one
- I am not a polarized player - literally the best players in the world were not able to correctly deduce my alignment at any rate above rand, the expectation that you can read me easily day 1 is just false, especially in a game with such minimal content as this one
- From both of our town POVs there is at least one wolf among (Ikarus, Trout, Oliver)
- That same trio consists of a player in their first game, a player in their second game, and oliver who is relatively polarized. New players also are much more polarized than experienced players.


So I deduced all of these things - and I assumed you would deduce them as well. And I assumed you would therefore converge on a similar strategy as me if you are town:
1) Find the wolf among (Ikarus, Trout, Oliver)
2) Solve Stealth only after the wolf among those three is found (or from your POV you would solve me only after the first wolf is found)

This works especially well because there is no nightkill so you'll be alive until the end.


The big reason I've been wary about you is that it seems that you've not actually come to these conclusions - and that's concerning to me because I believe a scum~Stealth would be more opportunistic, wouldn't be thinking like this, and would try to push me out early. That's not to say that you're lock scum for scumreading me. I've seen you mis-tunnel on you before, just as you've seen me mis-tunnel on you before.

And maybe you've just not had the time to really think deeply about the game and haven't reached these same conclusions as a result.

But now with all that said - who do you think is most likely wolf among those three? And why?

From your POV there mechanically has to be at least one wolf among those three, so who do you think it is?

I think there's a very good case for it not being Trout.
And a middling but still existent case for it not being ikarus.
Yes?

[FM-Mabel Pines]

have you played with anyone else here? how do They usually behave? asking for a friend

a very harmless friend that won't use information against anyone

I have played with everyone here before except you and ikarus. I shadow-hydra'd with Ikarus though and got some glimpses into how he thinks ;P

[FM-Mabel Pines]

have you played with anyone else here? how do They usually behave? asking for a friend

a very harmless friend that won't use information against anyone

As for how they usually behave?

There's a ton to say - and tbh describing other players metas in an all-encompassing way is pretty bad as it tends to be pretty reductive.

[MartinGG99]

no edit was made, i accidentally opened up the editing ui and pressed save to exit out of it. i didnt change anything yet it still showed up as an edit

It appears it recorded the temporary removal and re-adding of a line when you saved it. Which is just silly, because it shows (indeed) no actual change happened and yet still counted it as an edit.

But yeah, try to avoid doing that if you can.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I've seen you mis-tunnel on me before, just as you've seen me mis-tunnel on you before.

Edit by way of double post (EBWODP for short for new players, I'll be saying EBWODP from now on)

[Trout]

As for how they usually behave?

There's a ton to say - and tbh describing other players metas in an all-encompassing way is pretty bad as it tends to be pretty reductive.

so what you're saying is you're making an exception towards Stealth just because he's being a bit pushy towards you? because contrary to your supposed intentions, you've just reducted my list of who is probably scum

[FM-Mabel Pines]

so what you're saying is you're making an exception towards Stealth just because he's being a bit pushy towards you? because contrary to your supposed intentions, you've just reducted my list of who is probably scum

I'm not interested in chopping stealth today because new players (for better or for worse) are much easier to read accurately than experienced players. It has nothing to do with how Stealth has played towards me in this game and it has everything to do with the way that Stealth has played in past games. Stealth has many times in the past shown that he is a difficult player to read, and therefore I think it would be foolhardy to push there today when I'll probably be just flipping a coin.

Whereas with you and ikarus and oliver - I think you three are going to be much more obvious whether you're town or mafia, and so trying to solve the game from that perspective just makes much more sense.

[Trout]

I'm not interested in chopping stealth today because new players (for better or for worse) are much easier to read accurately than experienced players. It has nothing to do with how Stealth has played towards me in this game and it has everything to do with the way that Stealth has played in past games. Stealth has many times in the past shown that he is a difficult player to read, and therefore I think it would be foolhardy to push there today when I'll probably be just flipping a coin.

Whereas with you and ikarus and oliver - I think you three are going to be much more obvious whether you're town or mafia, and so trying to solve the game from that perspective just makes much more sense.

whatever you say, 'pal'
here's to many more brownie points earned by you in deciding who goes out just because you're "more experienced"
seems like it's gonna be a real Easy Game for you

[FM-Mabel Pines]

whatever you say, 'pal'
here's to many more brownie points earned by you in deciding who goes out just because you're "more experienced"
seems like it's gonna be a real Easy Game for you

I'm here to kill wolves, not make friends <3

[Trout]

I'm here to kill wolves, not make friends <3

just like with santa claus, the real wolf is you
(pretend that was a mic drop instead)

[Stealthbomber16]

Will type up a deeper response soon but it feels disingenuous to call oli a new player when he’s been around for a while.

[Stealthbomber16]

Will type up a deeper response soon but it feels disingenuous to call oli a new player when he’s been around for a while.

Not that I don’t understand what you mean. I just think your term was bad.

[ikarusdk]

oliver was willing to make some sort of reads. As of that post the other players in the game did:
You: Just insisted you were town - that's it, nothing else
Trout: Just joking around and voted a town
Stealth: Voted the sheriff


So yes, as of that post oliver was the towniest player in the game.


Now question for you: why do you think that the first player willing to actually make some sort of coherent read on the game is going to be mafia? Wouldn't mafia here love to let the game just be as stagnant as it's been rather than trying to stir the pot?

Given that it takes only 3 votes to kill people and mafia have two votes, why were you willing to gamble on day 1 by voting me? In fact - you weren't only the first vote, you were the second vote.
As town, why did you have no natural fear of voting incorrectly here resulting in a miselimination?
Did you really see enough for you to be so confident?

Ok I managed to successfully wake up and read the posts. We have less than 5 hours to come up with something.

I don't think Oliver was making any sort of coherent read on the game at that stage, I understood those posts as generic 'first guess' who he thinks might be scum based on our entrances, and while first impressions are important, I don't believe he was attempting to make a genuine read on people.

I wasn't willing to push you as scum, I wanted to ask you the same thing as Varcron and you avoided answering his question. I voted you because I wanted your attention and I completely missed the concept of '3 votes to hammer' by EoD. When I realised what actually could've happened from my vote (another voting you after I went to sleep and you being lynched), I unvoted immediately.

[ikarusdk]

To be honest, I personally think Mabel is too town to be town here.

Her entire posts here has been about directing our attention away from Mabel towards more polarised players (I don't know what it would mean, easier people to read?), lending reasons to scum Oliver more than anything, who has not been very active, so an easy target.

If Mabel was town, I think she would've gone for a more direct approach to explain why she isn't the scum, rather than all these elaborate posts to lessen the suspicion on her.

I could be entirely wrong. It's just a feeling.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Will type up a deeper response soon but it feels disingenuous to call oli a new player when he’s been around for a while.

Where did I call him new?
I called him polarized, not new
I called the other two new

[ikarusdk]

I'm still learning, so I'm going to be relying on others more here.

[ikarusdk]

Trout's posts are funny - I like him so far. I put him at either town or has played FM before elsewhere.

The way he attacks ikar for sheeping him is something that you almost never see from a new scum. It's possible that due to a lack of content in this game getting good reads will be difficult and he managed to pull a clever move earning himself a townread, or it's possible that he's undersold his past FM experience. But either way I don't think I ever kill there today - which is unfortunate since he's currently voting me.

your silence will have been nothing short of eternal if you don't face your actions soon

-vote oliverz144

If I am right, the team is Mabel/Trout xD

[ikarusdk]

Trout easily sheeping Mabel way before Mabel explained why Oliver would be a good first day lynch, and two votes on Oli.. hmm

[FM-Mabel Pines]

To be honest, I personally think Mabel is too town to be town here.

Her entire posts here has been about directing our attention away from Mabel towards more polarised players (I don't know what it would mean, easier people to read?), lending reasons to scum Oliver more than anything, who has not been very active, so an easy target.

If Mabel was town, I think she would've gone for a more direct approach to explain why she isn't the scum, rather than all these elaborate posts to lessen the suspicion on her.

I could be entirely wrong. It's just a feeling.

Ikarus, I'm Lumi, this is my alt account

I literally swept the best players in the world in the season 9 finale as wolf. I'm too good at wolfing for me trying to show myself as town to ever work - when you're good enough you have to just find wolves because no one can ever really trust you.

And that's what I'm doing. Do you have a reason to townread Oliver?

[ikarusdk]

I would like Varcron to come back before EoD and lead us to victory.

Varcron - sheriff
Oliver - completely different to how he played in warcraft where he was scum.
StealthBomber - I feel SB is playing exactly how he played in Warcraft, with less activity due to being busy.
Trout
Mabel

[FM-Mabel Pines]

The flipside is that I solve games and get night killed night 1 as town regularly. Killing players like that day 1 is extremely stupid

Mafia 101:
Solve the most polarized players first

[ikarusdk]

Ikarus, I'm Lumi, this is my alt account

I literally swept the best players in the world in the season 9 finale as wolf. I'm too good at wolfing for me trying to show myself as town to ever work - when you're good enough you have to just find wolves because no one can ever really trust you.

And that's what I'm doing. Do you have a reason to townread Oliver?

I figured you were Lumi

I don't have a reason per se, but in comparison to the other game, Oliver hasn't really been active. He was more vocal there and he flipped scum. It's a polar opposite here. Maybe he has been really busy, maybe he is trying to stay hidden but he is on the spotlight right now with 4 hours remaining, and the fact he hasn't shown up to defend himself makes me believe he's just not/can't play right now.

[ikarusdk]

The flipside is that I solve games and get night killed night 1 as town regularly. Killing players like that day 1 is extremely stupid

Mafia 101:
Solve the most polarized players first

I agree. Solve the easier ones first. But I think going for Oliver at this point just because he hasn't been active is not the right move.

And I don't think day 1 lynch is a must?