S-FM 317: Eternia [LADDER]

[FrostByte]

I just thought about something

@auwt, if the Hitman targets someone being protected by the Holy Guardian Spirit, one of his two kill charges is used even though the target does not die, correct?

If so, that means scum cannot kill anymore

How do we know that's what happened? Hitman could have not used a charge n1. That would be the smart play instead of randomly shooting in the dark.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

How do we know that's what happened? Hitman could have not used a charge n1. That would be the smart play instead of randomly shooting in the dark.

Could be, that's true. I really think they'd want Helz dead early, though. He was basically making no mistakes when it comes to looking towny, and he was pro-town. Your scenario is not to rule out, but I think it's unlikely.

[Auwt]

I just thought about something

@auwt, if the Hitman targets someone being protected by the Holy Guardian Spirit, one of his two kill charges is used even though the target does not die, correct?

If so, that means scum cannot kill anymore

Yup that is correct, Hitman would still use a charge in that case.

[Mesk514]

lmfao you're right. I was trying to WIFOM a little bit EoD saying Sheriff wasn't confirmed but I had a strong suspicion Helz was Sheriff. It just kind of got brought up at some point? Or Helz softclaimed or something.

If you end up flipping scum I'm gonna thank you profusely for shitting on established metas. Maybe people will fuck off with that shit because it's not useful if your read target has 80+ IQ.

I was honestly thinking all neuts had to survive til the end, besides the jester. His proposal was very obviously pro town, but it also appeared to have an alternative motive that was beneficial to him (which it did but not what I was thinking), and since clearly neuts are capable of having town sided motivations, I didn't see a reason why I had to read him as OMG HOLY SHIT THIS GUY IS CLEARLY CONFIRMED TOWN, SOMEONE CALL 911 HELZ JUST BROKE THE GAME. MattZed had more of an alternative motive vibe to him. but like I said, mechanically breaking the game gives you +5 points in my book, not +105.

&& lol, THE MESK META LIVES ON, but I'll gladly take the noose now that I've been able to live two days in a big kids game and have even received a misread by the one and only. love it, love it. I feel accomplished. Especially if mike flips scum.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I just checked Frinckles' ISO, and...

And I answered this pointing out pointless it was.

@Frinckles never replied to this post or to my wall in the spoiler... and explainations are still lacking ))))

-vote Frinckles

If Frinckles is town, I will eat my hat. Which shouldn't be too hard since I don't have one, but still.

[MattZed]

I just thought about something

@auwt, if the Hitman targets someone being protected by the Holy Guardian Spirit, one of his two kill charges is used even though the target does not die, correct?

If so, that means scum cannot kill anymore

If I had saved Helz from a kill N1, I WOULD BE DEAD.

I just checked Frinckles' ISO, and...


@Frinckles never replied to this post or to my wall in the spoiler... and explainations are still lacking ))))

-vote Frinckles

If Frinckles is town, I will eat my hat. Which shouldn't be too hard since I don't have one, but still.

Unless you think Frinckles+Mike is a possible scumteam, MESK MAKES WAY MORE SENSE AS A VOTE.

[Mesk514]

Unless you think Frinckles+Mike is a possible scumteam, MESK MAKES WAY MORE SENSE AS A VOTE.

Have we discussed a MM+Frinckles world yet?

[Mesk514]

MM appears like he hasnt really even read the game lol

[Marshmallow Marshall]

If I had saved Helz from a kill N1, I WOULD BE DEAD.



Unless you think Frinckles+Mike is a possible scumteam, MESK MAKES WAY MORE SENSE AS A VOTE.

Wait, that's right lol, you're not a Guardian Angel. Oops. Nevermind that.

Why would Mesk make "way more sense as a vote" than Frinckles? It's not like Frinckles can't be scum with Mesk.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Have we discussed a MM+Frinckles world yet?

That would be a pretty dumb world lol. Scum!me (or scum!anyone) can't win alone against confirmed townies, so I'd have been bussing him all game long against my own interest.

MM appears like he hasnt really even read the game lol

Pssh.

[Mesk514]

That would be a pretty dumb world lol. Scum!me (or scum!anyone) can't win alone against confirmed townies, so I'd have been bussing him all game long against my own interest.

Well, as pointed out by MattZed, that world is pretty much at par with the world that Frinckles and Mike are scum together. Unless you seriously think I'm capable of playing scum 😂

So, to dismiss that world entirely would be naive

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Well, as pointed out by MattZed, that world is pretty much at par with the world that Frinckles and Mike are scum together. Unless you seriously think I'm capable of playing scum ��

So, to dismiss that world entirely would be naive

(I still townread Mike for the record)

[Mesk514]

(I still townread Mike for the record)

disgusting

[FrostByte]

So you have one protection night and blew your load night 1? Why?

MattZed this is an important question, friend

[MattZed]

Scum has one kill left. Unless scum wants to throw, it's one of me/Oberon/FB. Then there are two confirmed town and two unconfirmed town. The ONLY way town can lose if they they yeet both unconfirmed town before a single scum is yeeted. If town gets a SINGLE scum yeeted today or tomorrow, town wins. (because there's only one scum left, we can just follow the strategy "yeet everyone who isn't Matt/Oberon/FB until the scum are dead")

So we have two yeets, D3 and D4, and we need to get AT LEAST one scum. That's all we need: maximize our chance of catching AT LEAST one scum. We DO NOT need both.

The safest way to win is to just pick the least likely scum team and yeet the two people who aren't in it. Of the 6 possible scumteams, (MM+Mike, MM+Frinckles, MM+Mesk, Mike+Frinckles, Mike+Mesk, Frinckles+Mesk) I think Mike+Frinckles is the least likely. They've been going VERY hard at each other. Frinckles is the only non-confirmed person alive who voted for Mike to get yeeted D1 (recall this was a 5v4; putting your partner at L-1 on D1 is exceptionally bold). Before I called a thunderdome, it looked like D2 was going to be Mike vs. Frinckles, and they were the main people driving each others' trains. I really doubt their N1 night chat went "okay, let's bus each other really hard, probably kill one of us, and hope the other person can win despite only have 2 bullets."

Go ahead and tell me a less likely team! (don't cheat and pick one that involves you; pick one of the three that don't)

[MattZed]

MattZed this is an important question, friend

That's actually important? Because I thought N1 was the most likely night to kill Helz. The only situation I was afraid of was the existence of a Hitman, and if I were a hitman I would be trying to kill N1 and N2 to make it possible for D3 to be 3v2v1. Helz seemed like an extremely logical target N1 because a protective role very well could have been on Oberon.

[FrostByte]

I'm tired of low effort FM players

-vote Frinckles

@Frinckles Respond to MM's wallpost and start explaining yourself or I'll see you on Yeet Street

[MattZed]

I'm tired of low effort FM players

-vote Frinckles

@Frinckles Respond to MM's wallpost and start explaining yourself or I'll see you on Yeet Street

@Oberon , which of the following scum teams is the LEAST likely to you?

MM+Mike
MM+Frinckles
MM+Mesk
Mike+Frinckles
Mike+Mesk
Frinckles+Mesk?

We should be yeeting someone who ISN'T in the least-likely two. We don't need to go for our #1 scum suspect: if we yeet just ONE of the scum, we win. So we just need to maximize our chance of getting at least one with two yeets.

I think Mike+Frinckles is the least likely team, but if you think it's something like MM+Frinckles, then I can join you to yeet Mike today.

[FrostByte]

That's actually important? Because I thought N1 was the most likely night to kill Helz. The only situation I was afraid of was the existence of a Hitman, and if I were a hitman I would be trying to kill N1 and N2 to make it possible for D3 to be 3v2v1. Helz seemed like an extremely logical target N1 because a protective role very well could have been on Oberon.

That seems pretty shortsighted tbh. Helz was pretty active and towny day 1 for sure but using your one night of protection n1 is basically trying to RNG and hoping you get lucky vs saving it for later when it's more likely to be used. That's sc2mafia 101.

[FrostByte]

We should be yeeting someone who ISN'T in the least-likely two.

How is this more beneficial than reading the least likely pair and treating it like a 50/50?

[Mesk514]

Go ahead and tell me a less likely team! (don't cheat and pick one that involves you; pick one of the three that don't)

Eh, I would say Frinckles+Mike are probably the least likely but with the same reason it would dismiss MM+Frinckles, This leaves Mike+MM, which could be seen especially since MM town reads mike. Since I know I'm not scum, I know one of these three world exists regardless if there's bussing and putting each other at L-1. But if we go on the assumption that scum wouldn't dare bus each other so hard, Mike+MM it is

[FrostByte]

Scum has one kill left. Unless scum wants to throw, it's one of me/Oberon/FB.

It's definitely you or me tonight and you're neut so it's almost certainly me going tonight. Oberon has been confirmed town and scum gambled on hitting unconfirmed Helz vs confirmed Oberon.

[MattZed]

How is this more beneficial than reading the least likely pair and treating it like a 50/50?

I'm not sure I follow. We're going to win if our next two yeets catch a scum, or lose if our next two yeets are both town. We don't get any extra info between them, because scum is going to kill one of the confirmed players.

So we want to yeet two people that give us the BIGGEST chance of getting at least one scum. This is a little different from yeeting our top two scum picks:

FOR EXAMPLE, assume we knew that the scumteams were Mesk-Frinckles OR MM-Mike. Let's say we all really think Mesk and Frinckles are looking the most scummy. That doesn't mean we should yeet Mesk and Frinckles! Instead, we should yeet, say, Mesk and MM so that we're guaranteed to hit AT LEAST one scum.

[MattZed]

Eh, I would say Frinckles+Mike are probably the least likely but with the same reason it would dismiss MM+Frinckles, This leaves Mike+MM, which could be seen especially since MM town reads mike. Since I know I'm not scum, I know one of these three world exists regardless if there's bussing and putting each other at L-1. But if we go on the assumption that scum wouldn't dare bus each other so hard, Mike+MM it is

Are you deliberately misunderstanding me?

-vote Mesk514

I'm asking for the team that is the LEAST likely. Equivalently, you can tell me the two people who aren't in that least likely team; these are the people who have the lowest chance of being town TOGETHER. I'm saying Frinckles+Mike is the least likely scum team, or, equivalently, that you+MM is our least possible combination for last two town.

[MattZed]

If I haven't made it clear, I think MM is the most likely scum, but I'm equally fine yeeting Mesk or MM today.

[Oberon]

We should sheep the dead confirmed town. We don’t do that enough around here.

-vote Mesk514

[Mesk514]

I mean, if you can read, i literally stated which pair i believed to be least likely in the first damn sentence. jesus christ calm your tittys neut

[Mesk514]

surely it doesn't take someone 20 minutes to reread what I said and notice I gave you exactly what you asked for.
& I'll forgive oberon for sheeping and using his TPR status to slide on by and not produce his own opinions.

But with that, I'm gonna go work on my paper if there's gonna be no further participation at the moment

[Frinckles]

I'm working atm and slowly reading. I got roleblocked last night.

[Frinckles]

And the scumteam is in mm/mike/mesk lol

[Frinckles]

also that makes our conversation about 3P pretty funny matt

[Frinckles]

So the game is solved, you're welcome. This has been MattZed, winning the game for town and losing it for himself.

Going 0-2 coming out of retirement. :<

hey I called a mike/MM team already

[Frinckles]

really the only question is if Mesk would put citizen meta on the line but i doubt it. occams razor says the game is solved here

-vote marshmallow marshall

[Mesk514]

I'm almost certain it's Mike and MM, and I've highlighted several times why it's definitely Mike. I don't understand why we can't just vote him.

[Frinckles]

I'm almost certain it's Mike and MM, and I've highlighted several times why it's definitely Mike. I don't understand why we can't just vote him.

I mean Matt said he'd side town so with frost & oberon, gg

[FrostByte]

I'm not sure I follow. We're going to win if our next two yeets catch a scum, or lose if our next two yeets are both town. We don't get any extra info between them, because scum is going to kill one of the confirmed players.

So we want to yeet two people that give us the BIGGEST chance of getting at least one scum. This is a little different from yeeting our top two scum picks:

FOR EXAMPLE, assume we knew that the scumteams were Mesk-Frinckles OR MM-Mike. Let's say we all really think Mesk and Frinckles are looking the most scummy. That doesn't mean we should yeet Mesk and Frinckles! Instead, we should yeet, say, Mesk and MM so that we're guaranteed to hit AT LEAST one scum.

Pick least likely scum team and treat it as 50/50

So yeet one. If they flip town, yeet the other.

I don't see how your plan raises the likelihood of us hitting scum. Seems like unnecessary mental gymnastics.

Why would Guardian Angel neut spend the entire game trying to lead town? You don't benefit from it. That shit doesn't make sense. Your wincon was supposedly to keep Helz alive, not win with town.

Crumbing a claim doesn't actually give that claim more validity. It just requires a little bit of foresight. You made the observation that Helz seemed town as fuck early on, it would be easy enough to start crumbing a guardian claim then and wait for your moment to shine.

Pair that with the resistance to explaining yourself that you've been exhibiting today and you look sus as fuck.

[Mesk514]

I mean Matt said he'd side town so with frost & oberon, gg

fair

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

assuming of course you didn't make up your feedback

[FrostByte]

I'm almost certain it's Mike and MM, and I've highlighted several times why it's definitely Mike. I don't understand why we can't just vote him.

The best explanation you've given is that he's an ass kisser.

[Mesk514]

The best explanation you've given is that he's an ass kisser.

bruh, he literally tried to create something out of nothing with Oberon Day 1 and multiple times has ass kissed but has literally don't nothing outside of that. He pretty much just dismissed me as exec and then just went off on Frinckles. There's nothing that he's done that genuine, and posting a whole lot doesn't mean fuck all if you're doing jack shit

[FrostByte]

bruh, he literally tried to create something out of nothing with Oberon Day 1 and multiple times has ass kissed but has literally don't nothing outside of that. He pretty much just dismissed me as exec and then just went off on Frinckles. There's nothing that he's done that genuine, and posting a whole lot doesn't mean fuck all if you're doing jack shit

He's put forth a fair bit of explained and fairly well reasoned reads. Meanwhile you've done nothing but very lightly discuss mechanical solves and tunnel Mike constantly.

[Frinckles]

@MattZed we can go Mike or MM your call

[Frinckles]

And uh frost you mind unvoting me?

[Mesk514]

He's put forth a fair bit of explained and fairly well reasoned reads. Meanwhile you've done nothing but very lightly discuss mechanical solves and tunnel Mike constantly.

fairly explained ass kissing reads that appeal to you arent really well reasoned reads as their made for his benefit. lol
The combination of ass kissing, and reads that only serve beneficial to him is pretty much how one jumps to the conclusion someone is scum. mafia101. lol

& very lightly? I literally went into depth yesterday exactly where my head was at and my PoV of the game.
try harder to find scum in me pls

[FrostByte]

@MattZed we can go Mike or MM your call

Ah yes, ignore both confirmed town and sheep the neutral claim instead

If you're town you're literally throwing btw

[Frinckles]

Ah yes, ignore both confirmed town and sheep the neutral claim instead

If you're town you're literally throwing btw

I'm not throwing? Why would we vote mesk here?

I outlined a Mike/MM team yesterday. Ignoring citizen meta, there's not even a case for Mesk to be scum here.

[FrostByte]

reads that only serve beneficial to him is pretty much how one jumps to the conclusion someone is scum. mafia101. lol

Please explain to me how scum!Mike benefits from going against the wagon that was on me. He'd had to have the foresight that pocketing me would be more important than winning townpoints by following the established narrative.

try harder to find scum in me pls

I'm not tunneling you at all, I'm poking at your logic. I've been doing it to literally everyone this game. My vote isn't even on you at the moment.

[MattZed]

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

I've spent a LOT of time outlining why I think MM is scum. Let's finish this.

[FrostByte]

I'm not throwing? Why would we vote mesk here?

I outlined a Mike/MM team yesterday. Ignoring citizen meta, there's not even a case for Mesk to be scum here.

You're sheeping a neut claim over Sheriff, Journalist and confirmed cit with 0 explanation. If you're town you're throwing your ass off rn.

[Frinckles]

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

I've spent a LOT of time outlining why I think MM is scum. Let's finish this.

word. we can dub you an honorary town this game

[Frinckles]

You're sheeping a neut claim over Sheriff, Journalist and confirmed cit with 0 explanation. If you're town you're throwing your ass off rn.

being confirmed does not make your reads any more accurate. And you're voting with scum lol