S-FM 327 : Last Hope - Page 32
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  1. ISO #1551

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    @Auwt Can you confirm if it is possible for the Shadow team to have rolled two of the same role?
    Any speculation regarding the role repartition/multiplicity can be summed up as :

    It is a possibility.
    Quote Originally Posted by Efekannn02 View Post
    MM Magoroth and Distorted are the 3 baddies
    just like Agrael Acriel and Auwt being the original 3 baddies
    Quote Originally Posted by Efekannn02 View Post
    MafiaZ and Skwirl its all a repeat of history
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkRevenant View Post
    But Potoss has Pobes, Zeelot, and Acrons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Efekannn02 View Post
    Screw you I actually have more grudges towards the people who have their names start with A

  2. ISO #1552

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    btw @LagAttack setup speculation can be a distraction from scumhunting. so just don't do it too much.

    also i've nothing to say about it, besides "shadows will win thru lynches."
    It's important because if the probability that shadows had no kill-capable roles were something like 70% - then the play would definitely just be for town power roles to reveal and laugh at the shadows inability to stop them.

    But there's a 64% chance that the Shadows do have a kill-capable supporting role - which would have been leveled up last night

  3. ISO #1553

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    @Auwt What happens if a villager is leveled up and down in the same night?
    Absolutely nothing, that Villager would stay alive at the level 0.
    Quote Originally Posted by Efekannn02 View Post
    MM Magoroth and Distorted are the 3 baddies
    just like Agrael Acriel and Auwt being the original 3 baddies
    Quote Originally Posted by Efekannn02 View Post
    MafiaZ and Skwirl its all a repeat of history
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkRevenant View Post
    But Potoss has Pobes, Zeelot, and Acrons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Efekannn02 View Post
    Screw you I actually have more grudges towards the people who have their names start with A

  4. ISO #1554

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    In this setup where town has majority (10v3+1NE), It would at the very least take shadows until N4-N5 to get rid of most town and that's not accounting for the fact
    that elemental magus is constantly levelling other town members.

    AFAIK base shadow roles do not have killing abilities lv1 and must be leveled to have some sort of killing ability (e.g Terrible Prophet (Kill), Wicked Necromancer (All), and of course the faction leader Darkness (Kill, Roleblock, Utility). The probability of rolling these two roles discounting the fact of the shadow faction leader however, is:

    2/5 = 40% probability to role each role. Using Permutations (nPr) we can cut down having both roles to be n!/(n-r)! where n=both killing roles out of r=sample size of 5 to equate to 20% of having both killing roles

    however, even if Shadows somehow both rolled killing roles, to gain the killing ability for shadows that would mean Darkness would have to level them up one by one until n3, each night. This means that during that time he is not under leveling any town/heroes where the elemental magus would have the best advantage.


    On the other hand:
    During this time, elemental magus's focus should be on discerning whether if someone is hero or villager to best utilize their ability of levelling.
    Given each Hero spot, since there are 6 types of heroes, the expected value for having a wizard role given one spot is 1/6 = 0.16, and since there are 2 hero spots, from just the two spots we have an xR of 0.5 to upgrade one member one way. As I've said before, the best way to maximize town's winning chance is to have the priority of upgrading town into a hero. The more heroes there are, the more confirmations we can receive and the more utility we can use. TP roles such as Priest and Knight seems to be the best roles town should achieve, as both roles equally help confirm more than 2 town members immediately and greatly help the survivability of town.
    @LagAttack

  5. ISO #1555

  6. ISO #1556

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  8. ISO #1558

  9. ISO #1559

  10. ISO #1560

  11. ISO #1561

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    And it seems as though the Darkness really did decide to level them up to lv 2. That can only mean that At least one of their roles has killing if it's of such importance.
    bro you don't think darkness could have thought they were hitting village and hit a hero?

    Darkness role says that if they hit a villager, they kill them. An informed majority would have a pretty good shot at hitting a villager IMO
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  12. ISO #1562

  13. ISO #1563

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    @WrathCyber if ur actually stealthy assassin, you'd actually tell us who u hid behind last night as a rogue, bc that will DEFINITELY give us some clues
    Why would he just out himself as PR there is noi fucking reason to as either scum or town atm it doesn't make any sense
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  14. ISO #1564

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    yes but what if a level 1 hero is leveled up and down in the same night which takes effect first?
    Magus Level ups take place during the day and are received at the start of the night - so if it were a Magus level up then they would be level 2 at the start of the night, get a level 2 action, and then be leveled back down to level 1 at the end of the night.

    Wizard level ups take place during the night - so with a wizard level up they would be level 1 at the start of the night, get a level 1 action, then be leveled up to 2 and back down to 1 at the end of the night

  15. ISO #1565

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    bro you don't think darkness could have thought they were hitting village and hit a hero?

    Darkness role says that if they hit a villager, they kill them. An informed majority would have a pretty good shot at hitting a villager IMO
    it's a possibility. there's no point in arguing any of this further bc we can't know for sure

  16. ISO #1566

  17. ISO #1567

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    bro you don't think darkness could have thought they were hitting village and hit a hero?

    Darkness role says that if they hit a villager, they kill them. An informed majority would have a pretty good shot at hitting a villager IMO
    Are you implying you are this hero?

  18. ISO #1568

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    wait, the chances of there being two stealthy assassins is ZERO.

    if wrath kills tonight, he is literally confirmed stealthy assassin. he could also be slime, bc slime also cleans kills.
    No that's the opposite of what Auwt was saying, it is possible that both town roles were rogue, Magus leveled someone up, and they chose rogue too.

    It's technically possible for there to be 3 stealthy assassins in the game right now

  19. ISO #1569

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    Nah I would expect darkness to lv up their buddies ASAP to unlock more abilities. Weigh this with having to underlevel a villager twice just to kill them (not accounting that the villager underleveled can ask magus for a level the day after)
    you realize villager needs to be targeted ONCE by darkness to die

  20. ISO #1570

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    No that's the opposite of what Auwt was saying, it is possible that both town roles were rogue, Magus leveled someone up, and they chose rogue too.

    It's technically possible for there to be 3 stealthy assassins in the game right now
    2 stealthy assassins and 1 rogue

  21. ISO #1571

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    No that's the opposite of what Auwt was saying, it is possible that both town roles were rogue, Magus leveled someone up, and they chose rogue too.

    It's technically possible for there to be 3 stealthy assassins in the game right now
    They don't choose to be a hero. They become a random hero.

  22. ISO #1572

  23. ISO #1573

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    Magus Level ups take place during the day and are received at the start of the night - so if it were a Magus level up then they would be level 2 at the start of the night, get a level 2 action, and then be leveled back down to level 1 at the end of the night.

    Wizard level ups take place during the night - so with a wizard level up they would be level 1 at the start of the night, get a level 1 action, then be leveled up to 2 and back down to 1 at the end of the night
    how come the first time you don't jump down my throat it's about mechanical talk?
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  24. ISO #1574

  25. ISO #1575

  26. ISO #1576

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    2 stealthy assassins and 1 rogue
    Newly minted heroes at start of night still get to use their night action, the rogues could have theoretically then formed a redirect train passing some action around to 4 different people, yielding them all level 2. (Or they could have redirected separate actions, ignoring town power roles since in this silly scenario they'd all be rogues, there are still potentially 4 other roles with night actions)

    So still 3 stealthy assassins is possible.

    But there is such a stupidly small chance that we have that, it's not even really worth talking about lol

  27. ISO #1577

  28. ISO #1578

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    Nah I would expect darkness to lv up their buddies ASAP to unlock more abilities. Weigh this with having to underlevel a villager twice just to kill them (not accounting that the villager underleveled can ask magus for a level the day after)
    From what I understand they if darkness hits a villager it's a kpn
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  29. ISO #1579

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  31. ISO #1581

  32. ISO #1582

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    oberon softed elemental magus, who knows what his strategy is this game
    Bruh it's likely he's just trying to bait a MAGUS kill, why would any Magus in their right mind soft that it's what scum would be looking for
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  33. ISO #1583

  34. ISO #1584

  35. ISO #1585

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    From what I understand they if darkness hits a villager it's a kpn
    a KPN while there are still villagers alive, level-ups from Magus are like auto-vests,

    +1 auto-vest per night cancels out the -1 level per night from Darkness, in the long-run it's a net 0 KPN

  36. ISO #1586

  37. ISO #1587

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    From the village rolecard:
    "Whenever someone levels you up, you can choose a level 1 Village role and will then become this role at the start of the following night."
    Yeah and then if darkness hits you you're back at square fucking one right?
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  38. ISO #1588

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  40. ISO #1590

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    Bruh it's likely he's just trying to bait a MAGUS kill, why would any Magus in their right mind soft that it's what scum would be looking for
    First thing in the whole thread that blink has said that I agree with.

    Magus should not reveal at all costs, if they're about to be lynched, they should claim a town hero role.

    In the 36% chance that scum have no kill-capable roles, eliminating Magus is their only path to victory barring 6 mislynches
    In the 64% chance that scum does have kill-capable roles, it increases the KPN from 1 to 2, not worked it out, but I think 2 KPN from scum puts town in a mislynch and lose scenario for the rest of the game

  41. ISO #1591

  42. ISO #1592

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    @blinkskater can you remind me who you think are lagattack's partners?

    also i don't trust ur meta read of numbertwo, last time i trusted a meta read it was mm's meta read on ozy. which almost made me the sixth vote on ozy
    I originally thought it was Wrath attack going into N2, and I guess at the start of the day but after Lag has posted, I really don't think he's playing the "im scum i'm going to fake jester" card. I think he legitimately might be jester. I need to look into the players that were on Ozy EOD. I believe one scum garneted on that train has to be Lag's partner. Like I said it was wrath but now I'm not sure. If he IS Lag's partner and is playing the way he is then after the game I will admit that he outplayed the shit outta me as much as it hurts.

    ALSO your hard defense of LAG today, and not even wanting to entertain the fact he could be scum pains me because I had a strong TR on you. IDK if this is in ur scum range tonally and to post like this. I want to say NO But I can't ignore the zealot like defense. Give me time to re-analyze the EOD crap and i'll probably have another answer for you.
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  43. ISO #1593

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    First thing in the whole thread that blink has said that I agree with.

    Magus should not reveal at all costs, if they're about to be lynched, they should claim a town hero role.

    In the 36% chance that scum have no kill-capable roles, eliminating Magus is their only path to victory barring 6 mislynches
    In the 64% chance that scum does have kill-capable roles, it increases the KPN from 1 to 2, not worked it out, but I think 2 KPN from scum puts town in a mislynch and lose scenario for the rest of the game
    so much... so much setup speculation.

    if ur scum, i will be shocked.

  44. ISO #1594

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    Yeah and then if darkness hits you you're back at square fucking one right?
    I was quoting WrathCyber saying that villagers become a random hero - since they don't they get to choose their hero. Are you actually just trolling me? I wasn't even quoting you lol

    Also it actually isn't putting you back at square 1 - Magus level up means you are a hero for the night and get off a hero action before becoming a villager again

  45. ISO #1595

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    a KPN while there are still villagers alive, level-ups from Magus are like auto-vests,

    +1 auto-vest per night cancels out the -1 level per night from Darkness, in the long-run it's a net 0 KPN
    yeah only if darkness and magus target the same player tho, and that's a shit chance of happening but lol
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  46. ISO #1596

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I originally thought it was Wrath attack going into N2, and I guess at the start of the day but after Lag has posted, I really don't think he's playing the "im scum i'm going to fake jester" card. I think he legitimately might be jester. I need to look into the players that were on Ozy EOD. I believe one scum garneted on that train has to be Lag's partner. Like I said it was wrath but now I'm not sure. If he IS Lag's partner and is playing the way he is then after the game I will admit that he outplayed the shit outta me as much as it hurts.

    ALSO your hard defense of LAG today, and not even wanting to entertain the fact he could be scum pains me because I had a strong TR on you. IDK if this is in ur scum range tonally and to post like this. I want to say NO But I can't ignore the zealot like defense. Give me time to re-analyze the EOD crap and i'll probably have another answer for you.
    i just did UWOWU. pls townread me again, uwowu hewwo !!!
    last time i was mafia i basically afk'ed

  47. ISO #1597

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    so much... so much setup speculation.

    if ur scum, i will be shocked.
    You said setup speculation is usually scum indicative - but in this very wild, experimental setup, I feel like setup speculation is actually rather valuable.

    As long as it's done at the right time (eg start of the day so it's not distracting from scum hunting when time is running out)

  48. ISO #1598

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    I was quoting WrathCyber saying that villagers become a random hero - since they don't they get to choose their hero. Are you actually just trolling me? I wasn't even quoting you lol

    Also it actually isn't putting you back at square 1 - Magus level up means you are a hero for the night and get off a hero action before becoming a villager again
    STOP

    who do u think is scum besides blink and numbertwo??

  49. ISO #1599

  50. ISO #1600

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    I was quoting WrathCyber saying that villagers become a random hero - since they don't they get to choose their hero. Are you actually just trolling me? I wasn't even quoting you lol

    Also it actually isn't putting you back at square 1 - Magus level up means you are a hero for the night and get off a hero action before becoming a villager again
    I don't think that's the case
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

 

 

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