S-FM 338: Deck Mafia #008

[Takumi Fujiwara]

I am a little busy at the moment, but I want to put some thought into this (maybe someone can do the thinking for me while I am unable to do so due to work IRL, from home).

Some cards can have effects that reciprocate/reflect onto a visitor. Some examples I can think of:
- First person visiting you tonight dies.
- Everyone visiting you tonight dies.
- If the person you are visiting visits/doessomething/insert imagination, then your target dies.
- if you (could be town) visit someone that also happens to be visiting you that same night, then you die

Are there any scenarios there with the bussing, possibly Seanzie visiting Gikkle (and thus himself due to bussing? leading to suicide, perhaps?)

Sorry to cut this short, in between work meetings,.

Could be. Guillo should add a bomb role to the game if it doesn't already exist.

How did we everyone intend to shoot eachother when day kills were disabled? I was just bluffing about having an actual day-use kill. Just seems like a pretty big oversight by 90% of the game. Maybe I'm misunderstanding.

But of not, that oversight might have outted scum!hk and or scum!sb.

[hollowkatt]

Takumi feels like townie even being wrong af on me

townie bucket:
gikkle - functionally confirmed via bus drive between him and senzie
hk - obvs I'm putting myself here
takumi - does not feel like they're posting with an agenda. thoughts seem somewhat straightforward to arrive at even if I disagree with the destination
PQR - pure af tone and oozes town
loldebite - posting strong today, like their angles, like their "just say shit" takes.

leaning townie bucket:
martin? - I liked them early in the day D1 and nothing they've said here sticks out as super wolfy. ? is for the bus drive though, like why gikkle to seanzie?
SB16? - Todays posting is pretty good, I liked some of the questioning they've done


basically leaves me at:
oliverz - Maybe swap here for martin, don't really have a good reason for them to be POE other than they're less town than the aboves basically.
deathworlds - who?
bradland - have they even posted?

basically I know nothing about death and brad so they're poe by default. nothing they've said sticks out to me which is generally indicative of wolves sliding under the radar.

as a poe...

[hollowkatt]

Could be. Guillo should add a bomb role to the game if it doesn't already exist.

How did we everyone intend to shoot eachother when day kills were disabled? I was just bluffing about having an actual day-use kill. Just seems like a pretty big oversight by 90% of the game. Maybe I'm misunderstanding.

But of not, that oversight might have outted scum!hk and or scum!sb.

cards that have day kill abilities were disabled. They were disabled because Guillo used a Host Card that turns on In Thread Attacks that have a 20% chance base to hit and kill.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

I was out of the thread for quite a while yesterday right? If I'm looking for credit for being on their wagon (which is what you get from busing) why don't I do that much earlier in the game day when I was here and active and could talk to people about my wolf read there instead of basically doing a random dive bomb?

Like yes, part of busing is being on the right side of the wolf flip, but the goal of busing is to get credit with enough townies to ride into the late game, which means laying ground work early for the bus, talking up the wolf read, and getting others to buy into it.

Compare my play here with my play in that game and tell me I did any of the things to Paopan that I did to Anaxagore. I'll wait

I get where you're coming from but if I remember correctly anaxagore was:

1. Frustrated with the game or feigning frustration
2. Intended on dying, to the point where he was almost open wolfing

I'm actually having trouble finding at what time you did vote Paopan (on mobile currently.) But like I said, if we all were under the impression shit was gonna hit the fan and Paopan was a frontrunner for getting a bullet in the face, scum!frinckles would have been on that wagon beforehand. I think scum!hk and scum!sb would have been too.

But if I'm wrong about you, I'd love to hear who you would want to lynch. You spent a good amount of time interacting with PQR and you say you townread him. I'm guessing he's townlock for you?

[Takumi Fujiwara]

Scum!takumi**** don't wanna confuse anyone.

[Loldebite]

Takumi feels like townie even being wrong af on me

townie bucket:
gikkle - functionally confirmed via bus drive between him and senzie
hk - obvs I'm putting myself here
takumi - does not feel like they're posting with an agenda. thoughts seem somewhat straightforward to arrive at even if I disagree with the destination
PQR - pure af tone and oozes town
loldebite - posting strong today, like their angles, like their "just say shit" takes.

leaning townie bucket:
martin? - I liked them early in the day D1 and nothing they've said here sticks out as super wolfy. ? is for the bus drive though, like why gikkle to seanzie?
SB16? - Todays posting is pretty good, I liked some of the questioning they've done


basically leaves me at:
oliverz - Maybe swap here for martin, don't really have a good reason for them to be POE other than they're less town than the aboves basically.
deathworlds - who?
bradland - have they even posted?

basically I know nothing about death and brad so they're poe by default. nothing they've said sticks out to me which is generally indicative of wolves sliding under the radar.

as a poe...

So you consider a world where martin is suspicious because of his bussing, but never a world where gikkle is despite doubting the validity of the bussing and the fact that he might've been targetd by town ?

[Takumi Fujiwara]

Wait, Gikkle and Seanzie were the two switched?

[Gikkle]

Wait, Gikkle and Seanzie were the two switched?

ye

[Takumi Fujiwara]

cards that have day kill abilities were disabled. They were disabled because Guillo used a Host Card that turns on In Thread Attacks that have a 20% chance base to hit and kill.

Not sure I fully understand. There was plenty of hysteria about ITAs d1.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

ye

I guess we'll find out.

[hollowkatt]

So you consider a world where martin is suspicious because of his bussing, but never a world where gikkle is despite doubting the validity of the bussing and the fact that he might've been targetd by town ?

No, I believe the bus drive happened. What I'm not sure on is whether or not Martin is town.
ya I guess there's a world where gikkle was targeted by town and martin drove the two of them, which I think would mean that the team is exactly gikkle martin?

[Loldebite]

I guess we'll find out.

Really, just read the first post of the thread... Particularly the "host card".

[hollowkatt]

I get where you're coming from but if I remember correctly anaxagore was:

1. Frustrated with the game or feigning frustration
2. Intended on dying, to the point where he was almost open wolfing

I'm actually having trouble finding at what time you did vote Paopan (on mobile currently.) But like I said, if we all were under the impression shit was gonna hit the fan and Paopan was a frontrunner for getting a bullet in the face, scum!frinckles would have been on that wagon beforehand. I think scum!hk and scum!sb would have been too.

But if I'm wrong about you, I'd love to hear who you would want to lynch. You spent a good amount of time interacting with PQR and you say you townread him. I'm guessing he's townlock for you?

my poe is currently oliver, death, brad, with a side of martin/gikkle b/c of what loldebite just said about the bus drive which got me thinking about combinations and permutations that would allow for gikkle to be a town shot driven to seanzie instead of a wolf shot.

[Loldebite]

No, I believe the bus drive happened. What I'm not sure on is whether or not Martin is town.
ya I guess there's a world where gikkle was targeted by town and martin drove the two of them, which I think would mean that the team is exactly gikkle martin?

Why couldn't town!Martin bus gikkle regardless of his alignment ?

[hollowkatt]

Why couldn't town!Martin bus gikkle regardless of his alignment ?

I'd have to read martins ISO but I don't recall him expressing a strong town read on gikkle headed into the end of the day. Flips I guess could have changed that given that gikkle was early on Paopan and really didn't seem to waiver.

[Loldebite]

I'd have to read martins ISO but I don't recall him expressing a strong town read on gikkle headed into the end of the day. Flips I guess could have changed that given that gikkle was early on Paopan and really didn't seem to waiver.

I think this :

honestly if I got Seanzie killed just because I bus-drove Gikkle thinking hes suspicious and Seanzie was a probably NK target

and so a town TK'ed Gikkle (which redirected onto Seanzie) without me realizing a town could or would do that

then that has to be one of the most short-sighted actions ive ever done

points toward Martin wanting to hide seanzie behind gikkle in an attempt to make him shoot himself, doesn't it ?
This seems plausible IMO.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

I know I said I wouldn't give any credit to people on Paos wagon but that is a decent point that gikkle was on it early I think. I'll have to check.

[hollowkatt]

I think this :

honestly if I got Seanzie killed just because I bus-drove Gikkle thinking hes suspicious and Seanzie was a probably NK target

and so a town TK'ed Gikkle (which redirected onto Seanzie) without me realizing a town could or would do that

then that has to be one of the most short-sighted actions ive ever done

points toward Martin wanting to hide seanzie behind gikkle in an attempt to make him shoot himself, doesn't it ?
This seems plausible IMO.

I'm trying to follow his logic there.

Martin thinks gikkle is suspicious.

He drives gikkle and seanzie thinking seanzie is a probable NK target

he says town targeted gikkle with killing action, redirected to seanzie, without martin realizing that town could or would do that.

and the conclusion is that if seanzie was the NK target it would have taken out gikkle instead, resolving martins suspicion there and saving seanzie from a probable night kill... ok yeah I follow your conclusion now.

possible I guess? Comes down to who do you trust more, martin or gikkle really.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

I know I said I wouldn't give any credit to people on Paos wagon but that is a decent point that gikkle was on it early I think. I'll have to check.

Also, Town!Martin would want to protect Seanzie there, I think. But Town!Martin switching him with Gikkle doesn't make much sense to me. If I were in that position to bus I'd swap Seanzie with a lowposter or something. Gikkle should have been a prime target for town night kills/investigations etc.

[Gikkle]

I think Oliverz is kind of townie so far? So that kind of just leaves Takumi/Bradland to me. Loldebite/Martin could be possible, I suppose, but it's less likely.

Deathworlds/SB16/HK/PQRn... I've really seen nothing bad about any of these individuals? I mean, deathworlds hasn't posted today yet I think so maybe that'll change, but these 4 all seem fairly pure to me.

At some point I'm gonna have to take a look at Paopan spew and see how that holds up against my reads stated here. I'll probably do that tonight. Or sooner if I have time.

[PQRnHack]

The Zeus kill is most likely to be town. If I had a N1 NK I would probably shoot it there.

Zeus was not shot or killed (and he required multiple shots to get killed per the flip), he died/suicided. The Survivor failed to consume enough calories thanks to yours truly ;) He got 0 calories from his off-Pao vote D1 and his N1 was not sufficient to stay alive (10k required).

Boba, MM, Seanzie were shot. Maybe 1 factional kill, 2 card kills (alignments not known, unless someone comes forward). The card kills could also have been suicides/bombings (like one of the 3 visiting a player with a card that kills visitors).

Also this is really embarrassing but for some reason I kept saying we are in a 9v2. We are in an 8v2. Surprised no one pointed out this mistake earlier. I swear I can count to 10!

[Takumi Fujiwara]

We can assume the BD is real currently.

Scum!Martin busses Seanzie & Town!Gikkle. The factional kill is used on Town!Gikkle. Anyone trying to heal Seanzie heals Gikkle. Anyone trying to investigate Gikkle checks Seanzie. Anyone trying to night kill Gikkle night kills Seanzie. Seanzie dies. The feedback is received by Gikkle and confirmed.

The second BD target still makes little sense to me unless Scum!Martin set it up.

Martin seems insistent that it was a town night kill that eliminated Seanzie. Weird.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

Scum!Martin+Scum!Gikkle falls apart here, as in the game would be over pretty quickly I think.

[PQRnHack]

Also, Town!Martin would want to protect Seanzie there, I think. But Town!Martin switching him with Gikkle doesn't make much sense to me. If I were in that position to bus I'd swap Seanzie with a lowposter or something. Gikkle should have been a prime target for town night kills/investigations etc.

I agree with this. Sean was a strong town, it would be surprising for scum to go for that right away, although they were certainly under pressure after losing Pao and sometimes you have to go all in. If I could have protected Sean, I would have done so N1 as he was the greatest asset from my view. Is it believable that mafia chose Gikkle to target? Why Boba and MM? Maybe some of them got suicided by certain card abilities or visited a landmine.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

I agree with this. Sean was a strong town, it would be surprising for scum to go for that right away, although they were certainly under pressure after losing Pao and sometimes you have to go all in. If I could have protected Sean, I would have done so N1 as he was the greatest asset from my view. Is it believable that mafia chose Gikkle to target? Why Boba and MM? Maybe some of them got suicided by certain card abilities or visited a landmine.

Adding, there wasn't anything I remember alluding to a BD card from Martin D1. Scum would have been blindly attacking Town!Gikkle. Alternatively, they attacked Town!Gikkle knowing it would be redirected to Seanzie.

It's still possible, as Martin pointed out, that Town fired that shot at Town!Gikkle, redirecting it to Seanzie. But that seems like a way of explaining away the circumstances surrounding the shot that the Mafia may have, in fact, fired. Not to mention, well.. nobody has fucking claimed shooting Gikkle. lol

And if Martin's first thought is to assume that Gikkle was shot at by town, why would he switch them in the first place? Poor Judgement? Gambit? idk.

Oh well. Guess we should hear from Martin first.

-vote stealthbomber16

[BradLand]

I'm here really quickly and I gotta leave because I'm going to AEW tonight.

I claim the Boba Fett shot. I thought between Paopan's treatment of other slots and the way he was low key I thought he'd be the best chance to flip mafia.

I didn't think he'd have a GvD card though, I've never actually seen the individual in a game so I'm mostly regretting that I killed him while he had that activated, sorry BF.

I'll be back on tonight after I'm home.

[BradLand]

Also apparently I got a Day Vig shot but day kills that aren't ITA's and Day Vote Offs are off the table so it's not going to do anything.

Appreciate the thought though, to whoever gave me that.

[Loldebite]

Also apparently I got a Day Vig shot but day kills that aren't ITA's and Day Vote Offs are off the table so it's not going to do anything.

Appreciate the thought though, to whoever gave me that.

Well... Probably bobba fett, ironically

[Loldebite]

I'm here really quickly and I gotta leave because I'm going to AEW tonight.

I claim the Boba Fett shot. I thought between Paopan's treatment of other slots and the way he was low key I thought he'd be the best chance to flip mafia.

I didn't think he'd have a GvD card though, I've never actually seen the individual in a game so I'm mostly regretting that I killed him while he had that activated, sorry BF.

I'll be back on tonight after I'm home.

Was that a one-shot gun ? Why'd you shoot D1 ?

[BradLand]

Was that a one-shot gun ? Why'd you shoot D1 ?

I can shoot after a wolf flip.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

Okay well that clears things up a bit.

[BradLand]

And I shot because, I like shooting and I want to hit a wolf.

Of course my dumbass was more detrimental to town than helpful.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

And I shot because, I like shooting and I want to hit a wolf.

Of course my dumbass was more detrimental to town than helpful.

For what it's worth, your D1 + you being forthcoming and specific about the shot is good enough for me today.

[PQRnHack]

@Takumi Fujiwara what do you think was Paopan's intent with listing you as his only Green read (and don't tell me about your fancy ride)?

[Stealthbomber16]

I think Hollowkatt and SB16 are could have been bussing Paopan with the intention that they felt he would likely not survive ITA shenanigans. If the goal was to be on the correct side of a dead mafia!paopan, placing their votes on him with under an hour before ITAs were unlocked would be a good way to do it. In a way, I guess the result could be the same since PQR ended the day early- they look like they're on the correct side of the lynch. Paopan has encouraged teammates to bus him on multiple occasions and SB16/HK are pretty good at bussing. Even if neither of these suspicions are true, I can't really give credit to anyone who was on that wagon except for PQR but I still feel like that's the best place to lynch.

If you're talking about my kill, I submitted my kill action that will occur at the end of the day when a ICBM will land on somebody's head. The player will be taken-aback by the sheer concussive force of the large object hitting them and they'll be stammer around confused. As the bomb slowly rolls to the other end of the room, the player will reflect briefly about their favorite ride in Disney World. After a few seconds the nuclear bomb will detonate. I have the nuclear codes to de-activate it.

What? I was pushing Paopan literally all day. I put my vote on him like first thing when I showed up after my early day 1 absence.

[Stealthbomber16]

You’re smoking some shit. In what world do I push Pao all day yesterday?

[Stealthbomber16]

You’re smoking some shit. In what world do I push Pao all day yesterday?

*where I’m scum

[hollowkatt]

I'm here really quickly and I gotta leave because I'm going to AEW tonight.

I claim the Boba Fett shot. I thought between Paopan's treatment of other slots and the way he was low key I thought he'd be the best chance to flip mafia.

I didn't think he'd have a GvD card though, I've never actually seen the individual in a game so I'm mostly regretting that I killed him while he had that activated, sorry BF.

I'll be back on tonight after I'm home.

seems legit to me

[Takumi Fujiwara]

@Takumi Fujiwara what do you think was Paopan's intent with listing you as his only Green read (and don't tell me about your fancy ride)?

Fancy ride?

Anyway, I didn't see him listing me as his only green read. But if he did, probably to pocket me. Guess he did in a way.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

You’re smoking some shit. In what world do I push Pao all day yesterday?

Trying to gaslight over one suspicion? Lol, I'm equally as suspicious of HK for the same reasons.

Who would you lynch today?

[deathworlds]

catching up now, just saw the flips

[deathworlds]

I can’t directly quote my anonymous message, so I’ll paraphrase it here.

1. The player analyzed Pao’s ISO to look for interactions and listed how many interactions each player had with pao, noting that interactions between scum and scum in 24/7 chat games are usually forced or completely absent. To this extent, the player found 0 interactions with Mesk/Oliver, Gikkle, and DoctorZeus. The player expressed suspicion toward Gikkle for that reason. The player also noted that Pao had 12 interactions with PQ, which is a lot.

2. The player noted how Pao scumread people they had few interactions with and lurkers, with deathworlds being the one exception (and me, but this player didn’t pick up on that?)

3. The player townreads me, seanzie and loldebite. He scumreads MM and frinckles, noting that they are out of their town meta.

It’s interesting that I actually disagree with Frinckles being out of his town meta, but whatever.

Reads seem a little half-baked, but it's something

[Stealthbomber16]

Trying to gaslight over one suspicion? Lol, I'm equally as suspicious of HK for the same reasons.

Who would you lynch today?

Gaslight? Dude your theory here is so ridiculous that I actually cannot think it comes from town. Like I was townreading you 8 hours ago.

After 8 hours? Oliver for the TMI slip and refusing to answer my questions.

Another case of a silly person asking me who I would lynch when I have a vote placed.

[Stealthbomber16]

I wish I had the time to reread thread. Not that I would. But I don’t.

[deathworlds]

Got a lot of reading to do so far on this day so I'm gonna do a quote/response thing in a big spoiler so it doesn't hurt your sensitive baby eyes

[PQRnHack]

Fancy ride?

Anyway, I didn't see him listing me as his only green read. But if he did, probably to pocket me. Guess he did in a way.

IDK man you are tripping today and it is strange that others expressed this before I did so as I was doubting myself (so at least I am not tripping, then?). It is really frustrating because I felt this way about your D1 that one game where I voted you and I got it wrong (we were both town).

I have a theory, but those who have played with me before know that my wild theories are usually wrong.

So you don't know about this Fancy Ride? Or did you conveniently forget how Pao put you as the only green player in his garbage list with everyone else orange and red?

Takumi Fujiwara
YOU ARE DRIVING AN AE86. CONFIRMED TOWN!!

Pao's commentary there was, of course, absolute fluff. But I had this thought earlier today: could this be the case of making a dumb move because it's too dumb to come from a Mafia? I even have it in my notes from last night here:
Takumi. The only green player for a dumb reason from Pao. I doubt he would single out his scum teammate like this, so I will go with Town(or3P)~Takumi at this time.

But today I wondered, what if it's one of those WIFOM moments and I'm getting fooled?

[PQRnHack]

Reads seem a little half-baked, but it's something

Speaking of which, anyone wanna come forward to be SB16's secret messenger? Don't do it, ofc, if you think such a reveal would hurt Town.

[PQRnHack]

Gaslight? Dude your theory here is so ridiculous that I actually cannot think it comes from town. Like I was townreading you 8 hours ago.

After 8 hours? Oliver for the TMI slip and refusing to answer my questions.

Another case of a silly person asking me who I would lynch when I have a vote placed.

Stop bussing your scum teammate. "It won't work" (famous almost last words from you know where). Paopan already revealed you are his fellow scum ;)

[Takumi Fujiwara]

IDK man you are tripping today and it is strange that others expressed this before I did so as I was doubting myself (so at least I am not tripping, then?). It is really frustrating because I felt this way about your D1 that one game where I voted you and I got it wrong (we were both town).

I have a theory, but those who have played with me before know that my wild theories are usually wrong.

So you don't know about this Fancy Ride? Or did you conveniently forget how Pao put you as the only green player in his garbage list with everyone else orange and red?



Pao's commentary there was, of course, absolute fluff. But I had this thought earlier today: could this be the case of making a dumb move because it's too dumb to come from a Mafia? I even have it in my notes from last night here:
Takumi. The only green player for a dumb reason from Pao. I doubt he would single out his scum teammate like this, so I will go with Town(or3P)~Takumi at this time.

But today I wondered, what if it's one of those WIFOM moments and I'm getting fooled?

I thought he was just talking about how you get a car in the mod when you're Street Racer.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

Gaslight? Dude your theory here is so ridiculous that I actually cannot think it comes from town. Like I was townreading you 8 hours ago.

After 8 hours? Oliver for the TMI slip and refusing to answer my questions.

Another case of a silly person asking me who I would lynch when I have a vote placed.

There are 2 scum left. Just expected a little world building from you. Is my theory equally as absurd to you if I accused only HK of it?