S-FM 210: Give or Take

[DarknessB]

Pretty sure he meant me, though, unless you also explained your vote as letting a vig get a "free" shot.

Agree -- the post doesn't make sense with respect to MiniZed given MiniZed didn't make any comment like that.

[secondpassing]

This makes no sense -- you can be alerted to something by it being odd for meta reasons, look into it, and then find all the indications of scum. In fact, that's how most people find their scum reads -- something catches them funny, they read a player's posts in more detail, and then it confirms their suspicions to the point where they are sure enough in their head to make a case. This isn't math, SP -- order of operations means nothing.

Okay whatever. It wasn't an important point or anything, especially not right now.

I think I'll move my vote to BananaCucho. Didn't totally buy her not slipping and she didn't really read everything. I find her defense of Titus to be quite odd, so odd.

-vote BananaCucho

[secondpassing]

Maybe he was legit, maybe he was not and was just making a joke. @MattZed , I'm not sure you're very convincing with your case on yzb25. Are you still proclaiming yourself town-leader?

[Never Unlucky]

Pretty sure he meant me, though, unless you also explained your vote as letting a vig get a "free" shot.

It was to MiniZed. I never said you slipped.


I have to go for good now.

I promise you my lynch is a mislynch. No lynch>mislynch. Don't vote me.

That's my 2 minutes defense. If I couldn't convince you that I was town in the last 72 hours I can't convince you now anyways.

[DarknessB]

It was to MiniZed. I never said you slipped.


I have to go for good now.

I promise you my lynch is a mislynch. No lynch>mislynch. Don't vote me.

That's my 2 minutes defense. If I couldn't convince you that I was town in the last 72 hours I can't convince you now anyways.

Given you're the most likely lynch, why don't you claim at least? Might help your case.

[MiniZed]

It was to MiniZed. I never said you slipped.


I have to go for good now.

I promise you my lynch is a mislynch. No lynch>mislynch. Don't vote me.

That's my 2 minutes defense. If I couldn't convince you that I was town in the last 72 hours I can't convince you now anyways.

You make 0 sense.

[MattZed]

Given you're the most likely lynch, why don't you claim at least? Might help your case.

If he's town, he's either a TPR who is confident in not being lynched, or a cit who wants the benefit of being night-killable or scare us from lynching him. Could also be scum who wants the same advantage but doesnt want to be CCd if claiming TPR. I'm treating it as a cit claim.

[DarknessB]

If he's town, he's either a TPR who is confident in not being lynched, or a cit who wants the benefit of being night-killable or scare us from lynching him. Could also be scum who wants the same advantage but doesnt want to be CCd if claiming TPR. I'm treating it as a cit claim.

I mean, given he took off, doesn't seem like we have any other choice.

[MattZed]

At this point, its NU or no lynch.

If no lynch, I strongly discourage the vig from shooting tonight. Unless JK also stops a kill, a vig mishot eats into the MLs we can afford.

[secondpassing]

You make 0 sense.

Hey MiniZed, any notable thoughts on players and their interactions?
Psst, I don't think you gave any analysis on me when we did the question session thing.

I would especially like to hear your updated reads on the more experienced players. I don't think you've talked much about them recently. Hitting only at NU, yzb, Eggy.

[DarknessB]

At this point, its NU or no lynch.

If no lynch, I strongly discourage the vig from shooting tonight. Unless JK also stops a kill, a vig mishot eats into the MLs we can afford.

The problem is that the only people who seem to be around are the pro-NU crowd (yzb and SP) who seem more content on no-lynching than doing anything else... All the other undecided voters are nowhere to be seen.

[secondpassing]

At this point, its NU or no lynch.

If no lynch, I strongly discourage the vig from shooting tonight. Unless JK also stops a kill, a vig mishot eats into the MLs we can afford.

I don't actually know what to think about this, but what if the vig is super-pro? What if he has like hidden super reads? Sometimes the reads of one person are better than the reads of many?

[MattZed]

Maybe he was legit, maybe he was not and was just making a joke. @MattZed , I'm not sure you're very convincing with your case on yzb25. Are you still proclaiming yourself town-leader?

I havent been active enough to lock in my claim to town leader, but if I'm alive tomorrow and have enough time, I'll probably try to reclaim my position.

[yzb25]

At this point, its NU or no lynch.

If no lynch, I strongly discourage the vig from shooting tonight. Unless JK also stops a kill, a vig mishot eats into the MLs we can afford.

Agreed.

[DarknessB]

Let the record show that yzb and SP would rather no lynch which gives us zero information and the scum a free kill tonight unless the Jailkeeper is lucky. I hope you two are damn certain on NU because it seems like the wrong call to me. We're going to walk into Day 2 with one person dead (likely) and being nowhere closer than where we were when we started the game (given Town Sleuth can't do anything until the Mafia one dies).

[DarknessB]

I don't actually know what to think about this, but what if the vig is super-pro? What if he has like hidden super reads? Sometimes the reads of one person are better than the reads of many?

Did you just soft claim Vigi? We're really screwed if SP is the guy with the gun...

[secondpassing]

Let the record show that yzb and SP would rather no lynch which gives us zero information and the scum a free kill tonight unless the Jailkeeper is lucky. I hope you two are damn certain on NU because it seems like the wrong call to me. We're going to walk into Day 2 with one person dead (likely) and being nowhere closer than where we were when we started the game (given Town Sleuth can't do anything until the Mafia one dies).

NU is my strongest town read. Voting him is like ugh I don't want to say it but I will: "its like gamethrowing".

Maybe we can compromise, who are your other null/scum reads?

[MattZed]

I don't actually know what to think about this, but what if the vig is super-pro? What if he has like hidden super reads? Sometimes the reads of one person are better than the reads of many?

If he has super-pro reads, he can share those tomorrow. If he misshoots tonight and we mislynch tomorrow, we wake up D3 in 5v3, which is pretty shitty.

If he truly has such a magical and sure scumread, he can take a shot, since 5v3 can let him shoot to save us if he's alive and we mislynch, but because we'd give up a 100% chance of being able to be wrong D2+D3 and get a D4, it better be a criminally accurate shot.

[DarknessB]

NU is my strongest town read. Voting him is like ugh I don't want to say it but I will: "its like gamethrowing".

Maybe we can compromise, who are your other null/scum reads?

Dude, even if NU is inexplicably Town, he's played like ass today. There's no reasonable way he could be ANYONE's strongest Town read, not even his own. He's either underperforming Town or in my view, likely scum.

I need more reasoning from other than "funny people can't be scum", "he seems genuine", and "he ignores people".

[yzb25]

The problem is that the only people who seem to be around are the pro-NU crowd (yzb and SP) who seem more content on no-lynching than doing anything else... All the other undecided voters are nowhere to be seen.

Let the record show that yzb and SP would rather no lynch which gives us zero information and the scum a free kill tonight unless the Jailkeeper is lucky. I hope you two are damn certain on NU because it seems like the wrong call to me. We're going to walk into Day 2 with one person dead (likely) and being nowhere closer than where we were when we started the game (given Town Sleuth can't do anything until the Mafia one dies).

Don't be so certain. Minized will probably vote, and another lurker may very well hop on to finish the job.

I rate NU's lynch chances as being 95% likely. It's been 80% likely since he started that dumb argument with half the players.

[MattZed]

Don't be so certain. Minized will probably vote, and another lurker may very well hop on to finish the job.

I rate NU's lynch chances as being 95% likely. It's been 80% likely since he started that dumb argument with half the players.

I'll bet you a full repping this goes to NL.

[yzb25]

Did you just soft claim Vigi? We're really screwed if SP is the guy with the gun...

Hahahah that would be awesome XD

[DarknessB]

Don't be so certain. Minized will probably vote, and another lurker may very well hop on to finish the job.

I rate NU's lynch chances as being 95% likely. It's been 80% likely since he started that dumb argument with half the players.

Don't go to Vegas with those odds. Yes, MiniZed has expressed an intent to lynch NU, but there's no one else around and I think it's like 17 minutes until EOD.

[yzb25]

I'll bet you a full repping this goes to NL.

Bet accepted.

[yzb25]

Bet accepted.

I have faith in some randy like Eggy finishing the job lol

[secondpassing]

There are currently 6 users browsing this thread. (6 members and 0 guests)
secondpassing, MattZed (+Phone people, DarknessB, yzb25, MiniZed)

Given that Calix may or may not be one of them... there is no random lurker.

[DarknessB]

There are currently 6 users browsing this thread. (6 members and 0 guests)
secondpassing, MattZed (+Phone people, DarknessB, yzb25, MiniZed)

Given that Calix may or may not be one of them... there is no random lurker.

We also have like 12 minutes left so if someone were intending to be around during EOD, they would have likely signed on and had been chatting by now.

[MattZed]

Well, I g2g. We'll see how this goes.

[MiniZed]

Hey MiniZed, any notable thoughts on players and their interactions?
Psst, I don't think you gave any analysis on me when we did the question session thing.

I would especially like to hear your updated reads on the more experienced players. I don't think you've talked much about them recently. Hitting only at NU, yzb, Eggy.

I talked a bit about Titus and Banana and how she never explained why she defended Titus, but given that I feel her investigative claim is real I don't notice much about it.

You and yzb25 have been on the same thought process for a while, and it's possible that you planned in advance to back each other up but I don't think you defending NU puts you two in a team, and I covered that slightly.

I haven't noted a terrible amount on MattZed this game. I do believe that the cases on him haven't been strong and have yet to see anything that stands out to me.

Darkness is probably town. I know I've covered this but given the meta arguments are being countered, he has been actively scum-hunting, being productive and more involved in the game via Interactiond. If you want to add meta his play seems far more beneficial to the town where as when he was scum he never wanted to give out information unnoticed.

Mesk is probably town, my old point still stands because she hasn't had much to interact with but I think her reaction to the role claiming seems natural. I've seen slight effort in a few points which she usually does not do.

I noted that yzb25 seemed like he wanted MattZed dead because of Matt pushing him. His argument feels forced and one-sided, and so I don't think I could get behind it currently. I also feel the lack of initiative from him to me feels as if he's perhaps on a team and is needing some pushing to get going. His personality is a lot weirder then when he was scum in IM. This is not entirely confirmed but if what I remember is true he didn't make as much jokes/goofing around as he did when he was scum. Some contradiction there.

I feel confident you are town. As I've realized (and I should have noticed this sooner) but your play makes you stand out more which is why people find you scummy. You have been scum-hunting more then others, and I see your play similar to the POLITICO play that you had been doing.

Titus had more contribution to the end, but the slot felt scummy at the beginning. Could be similar to me where I never had good day 1's but I'll have to look into her more in the future.

I don't like Gingerape. If I'm not wrong, I'm her only scum-read and when I asked why she scum-read me she said I was trying to figure out what I was "doing wrong as scum" which is false. Feels like a cloudy way of having nothing to share, which furthers my point where she says she's catching up but has had no interactions as of this moment.

I swear I commented on your posts, If I didn't then I felt them to be more sincere and to actually make sense. I don't have a good memory so I'll need to go back to say more if I haven't already.

[secondpassing]

Dude, even if NU is inexplicably Town, he's played like ass today. There's no reasonable way he could be ANYONE's strongest Town read, not even his own. He's either underperforming Town or in my view, likely scum.

I need more reasoning from other than "funny people can't be scum", "he seems genuine", and "he ignores people".

Funny people CAN'T be scum. He IS genuine. He ignores people.

I also gave like two other logical reasons. He IS my strongest town read. Please don't minimize this.

[secondpassing]

We also have like 12 minutes left so if someone were intending to be around during EOD, they would have likely signed on and had been chatting by now.

Yo DB, we have 12 minutes.
Your null reads and your scum reads. Go.

[DarknessB]

Funny people CAN'T be scum. He IS genuine. He ignores people.

I also gave like two other logical reasons. He IS my strongest town read. Please don't minimize this.

They were all terrible reasons -- sorry man, but that's the objective truth.

[MiniZed]

-vote Never Unlucky

[secondpassing]

I talked a bit about Titus and Banana and how she never explained why she defended Titus, but given that I feel her investigative claim is real I don't notice much about it.

You and yzb25 have been on the same thought process for a while, and it's possible that you planned in advance to back each other up but I don't think you defending NU puts you two in a team, and I covered that slightly.

I haven't noted a terrible amount on MattZed this game. I do believe that the cases on him haven't been strong and have yet to see anything that stands out to me.

Darkness is probably town. I know I've covered this but given the meta arguments are being countered, he has been actively scum-hunting, being productive and more involved in the game via Interactiond. If you want to add meta his play seems far more beneficial to the town where as when he was scum he never wanted to give out information unnoticed.

Mesk is probably town, my old point still stands because she hasn't had much to interact with but I think her reaction to the role claiming seems natural. I've seen slight effort in a few points which she usually does not do.

I noted that yzb25 seemed like he wanted MattZed dead because of Matt pushing him. His argument feels forced and one-sided, and so I don't think I could get behind it currently. I also feel the lack of initiative from him to me feels as if he's perhaps on a team and is needing some pushing to get going. His personality is a lot weirder then when he was scum in IM. This is not entirely confirmed but if what I remember is true he didn't make as much jokes/goofing around as he did when he was scum. Some contradiction there.

I feel confident you are town. As I've realized (and I should have noticed this sooner) but your play makes you stand out more which is why people find you scummy. You have been scum-hunting more then others, and I see your play similar to the POLITICO play that you had been doing.

Titus had more contribution to the end, but the slot felt scummy at the beginning. Could be similar to me where I never had good day 1's but I'll have to look into her more in the future.

I don't like Gingerape. If I'm not wrong, I'm her only scum-read and when I asked why she scum-read me she said I was trying to figure out what I was "doing wrong as scum" which is false. Feels like a cloudy way of having nothing to share, which furthers my point where she says she's catching up but has had no interactions as of this moment.

I swear I commented on your posts, If I didn't then I felt them to be more sincere and to actually make sense. I don't have a good memory so I'll need to go back to say more if I haven't already.

I'm a simpleton. Let's boil it down. You've commented on my posts, don't worry about that.

You scum read Gingerape and NU. You Null Titus and MattZed? Okay.

[DarknessB]

I doubt there's going to be a last minute change so here's the VC at EOD (sans something nutty happening):

Never Unlucky (6 [L-1]): MattZed, GameFreak, MiniZed, DarknessB, Titus, BananaCucho
GameFreak (1 [L-6]): Never Unlucky
MattZed (2 [L-5]): Eggy, yzb25
BananaCucho (2 [L-5]): secondpassing, Mesk514

[MiniZed]

I'm a simpleton. Let's boil it down. You've commented on my posts, don't worry about that.

You scum read Gingerape and NU. You Null Titus and MattZed? Okay.

I lean more scum on Titus. I can't say a heavy amount for Matt and GameFreak.

[yzb25]

-vote Never Unlucky

Dear Never Unlucky,

Sorry, but DB has convinced me. Even if you are likely town, we need to move this game forward.

I hope you treat this as a useful learning experience rather than act like a whiny little bitch - never underestimate the reasons people are lynching you. Even something as simple as "he's a prick" can compel the entire town to burn your ass.

Anyway, apologize to Titus after you die, you asshole. She clearly got upset about what you said, yet you continued to call her dumb. Don't give me some bullshit about "not being a tibetian monk". Your messages are filtered by a fucking monitor - it's so easy to control your temper when conversing in a forum. If you're mad, just leave the fucking computer and write your message later.

Yes it matters. You hurt the life and experience of another human being just because you told yourself you couldn't help it. Grow a pair.

No hard feelings. Just saying it how it is man. Stay strong, and have a nice day =)

[The Godfather]

Never Unlucky has been lynched! Stand by for the host's review and day-end post!


Never Unlucky (7 [L-0]): MattZed, GameFreak, yzb25, MiniZed, DarknessB, Titus, BananaCucho
GameFreak (1 [L-6]): Never Unlucky
MattZed (1 [L-6]): Eggy
BananaCucho (2 [L-5]): secondpassing, Mesk514

[Calix]

Night One

Never Unlucky was lynched. He was a Citizen.

Setup link

You have 24 hours to sleep

Players	Roles	Graveyard
BananaCucho DarknessB Eggy GameFreak Gingerape MattZed Mesk514 MiniZed Never Unlucky secondpassing Titus yzb25	Sleuth Backup Jailkeeper Mafioso Vigilante Backup Sleuth Jailkeeper Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen	Never Unlucky [Citizen] - Lynched Day 1

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4

[Calix]

Day Two

MattZed was killed last night. He was a Citizen.

Setup link

You have 48 hours to cooperate



With 10 players alive, 6 votes to hammer.

Players	Roles	Graveyard
BananaCucho DarknessB Eggy GameFreak Gingerape MattZed Mesk514 MiniZed Never Unlucky secondpassing Titus yzb25	Sleuth Backup Jailkeeper Mafioso Vigilante Backup Sleuth Jailkeeper Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen	Never Unlucky [Citizen] - Lynched Day 1 MattZed [Citizen] - Killed Night 1

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4

@BananaCucho @DarknessB @Eggy @GameFreak @Gingerape @Mesk514 @MiniZed @secondpassing @Titus @yzb25

[Gingerape]

-rolls over into the chatroom-
Why would Minized kill his older brother?

[DarknessB]

Alright, things we should start looking into:

1) Only one death -- does this mean the Mafia and Vigi double targeted, that one or the other got roleblocked, or that one or the other attacked the person roleblocked?

2) Why would the Mafia go for MattZed? A number of players had scumread him and he was a train earlier yesterday -- we should look into his reads and see if he was scumreading anyone who might have thought he was too dangerous to keep alive.

[DarknessB]

ISO on yzb25

19 - Fluff; votes NU
24 - Fluff; votes me
27 - suggests Eggy PL to start at 24 hours in
29 - Fluff
31 - Fluff response to my fluff
32 - Justifies PL on Eggy instead of Mesk because Mesk talks more
34 - Clarifies that PL on Eggy is largely an expectation he will be inactive unless voted like in S-FM Insanity
39 - explains training Eggy at 24 hours in to allow time for having more trains later
45 - Fluff, tells Mesk no one is proposing a PL on her this early
52 - says that pressure voting is still effective even if you say its for pressure
54 - Fluff
60 - Asks NU to clarify why he's so struck by the "pointlessness" of MiniZed's Page 1 questions
62 - expresses willingness to shift his "24 hour pressure" mode to a new target if Eggy is more active this game
69 - Signs off for the night
132 - Confusion on terminology
135 - Explains to Darkness that policy pressure is still effective because we aren't committed to taking the pressure off; more justification of Eggy pressure because of the unpleasantness of fighting about inactive slots after the game
136 - More terminology confusion
146 - Fluff
150 - explores the nature of Eggy's aggression and asks Mesk to comment on if it's normal
151 - Tells Darkness he'll start ISO'ing players.

A consistent theme I see out of yzb is that he's highly driven by pro-town organizing play, namely making sure town uses its voting pressure effectively to sort out as many suspects as possible and to keep inactive slots from remaining inactive. A shortfall, however, is that he hasn't done any scumhunting, but last left off suggesting he would. Spending the early part of the day to discuss strategy, before any notable content has gone by, seems quite the effective town strategy. However, he's yet to follow this up with actually trying to select anyone he finds scummy, even saying in #62 he can change his policy lynch to another target if that's how the rest of town feels. His vote is still on me because he hasn't made an opinion to change his random vote over. yzb is so far a follower through-and-through; he hesitates to form a read on Eggy because he wants to hear Mesk's perspective on Eggy's meta first, thus shifting the entire burden of making a read to someone else. I can see the blatant pro-town organizing as town-motivated, but without the follow-through, it's worrying.

Verdict: Scumlean. However, this read is subject to change based on whether yzb actually comes back to do any ISOs. If they're good, I'd be more than willing to simply see yzb as an initially cautious town who was setting up optimal lynches and pressure. If not, then he's a shy scum who picks on perceived lurkers and isn't willing to give any opinion that might not be well-received. I am very interested to know how sincere his promise to ISO really is.

I wanted to give yzb a chance to prove himself before trying to start a train on him, but I'm not opposed to voting either of them.

Of note, MZ was willing to lynch Yzb yesterday and his ISO on yzb was not complimentary. Suggests we should take a much closer look at him today given we know MZ's perspective was a Town one and perhaps the Mafia did not like MZ's push on yzb. Don't recall him doing too much else during Day 1 other than his joke read walls.

[DarknessB]

yzb also hammered NU despite being opposed to his lynch -- otherwise, NU would have been no lynched. Almost came off to me like he wanted the lynch, but didn't want to be held responsible for it, especially given his sudden reference to being convinced by me. I'll be honest, I don't like it.

-vote yzb25

[DarknessB]

Add to that, his seeming overemphasis on IIOA type content -- i.e. all of those summaries toward the end of Day 1 as opposed to reads on people or pushes. There's a lot that's coming up scummy in my eyes right now.

[Titus]

I am here ish. I am a little swamped with work but I am just left at wtf NU. Let's sort that shit out post game.

There's only one kill. That means

1) The vig and scum shot the same target
2) One was in jail and couldn't shoot
3) the target was in jail and couldn't die.

The jailkeeper should not claim IMO as that is a boon to scum. Yet, they should crumb/I will be crumbing if jailor.

Please don't be afraid to mention me. I am dealing with a lot.

VLA Saturday

[Titus]

Alright, things we should start looking into:

1) Only one death -- does this mean the Mafia and Vigi double targeted, that one or the other got roleblocked, or that one or the other attacked the person roleblocked?

2) Why would the Mafia go for MattZed? A number of players had scumread him and he was a train earlier yesterday -- we should look into his reads and see if he was scumreading anyone who might have thought he was too dangerous to keep alive.

1) Hard to tell

2) The reasons depend on setup knowledge. Are you familiar that this is an MS setup?

[Mesk514]

does no one notice that vigi has only 2 shots? perhaps they decided not to kill

[DarknessB]

1) Hard to tell

2) The reasons depend on setup knowledge. Are you familiar that this is an MS setup?

I wasn't familiar that this is an MS setup. What do you mean exactly by "setup knowledge"?

[Titus]

Wait a minute Darkness, why are you saying mafia shot MattZed?