S-FM 298: Third Line Butterfly

[Light_Yagami]

Im Willing To Wear That Necklace Of Hope I Dont Want You To Go To The Tree.. But I Will If It Will Prove The Truth..

[DS.]

No ones even considering lynching you today. It's always MM here I think because we have one more mislynch available before mylo and with the two of you it's a 50/50 shot, with you both potentially actressed, if we hit wrong today and right tomorrow then we will get a 50/50 which if it continues into the next day means we were correct even if you flip town

It's a weird scenario actually

[Light_Yagami]

Just Think Tonight Im Gonna Target 2 PPL Not In My Top 3 Scum Read And Odds Are They Will be A Same Check.. An Then Banana Will Be A Same Check Who Will You Believe...

[Light_Yagami]

Plan For Tomorrow Not Today..

[Light_Yagami]

I Bet Nobody Dies Tomorrow Other Then A Lynch.. Thats My Guess.. Its Either That Or Kill Me.. Am I Right?

[Light_Yagami]

I Bet Nobody Dies Tomorrow Other Then A Lynch.. Thats My Guess.. Its Either That Or Kill Me.. Am I Right?

@Scum Im Calling Ya Out Got Nothing Ta Say I See..

[theoneceko]

Kira's posts from day 1 match up with the leads he gave today.

Day 1:

If Its MM And DeathWorlds Id Put My Money On Banana As The Third Just Saiyan.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

I Am Comfortable With A MM Lynch And Or A Banana Lynch. That Is All

And Ill Bet My Life On The Fact That Banana And MM Are Both 100% Grade A Bona Fide Scum..

Day 2:

(Justice)-[N1-MM&Banana Same Alignment] - [N2-MM&Mag - Not The Same] - [N3-]

Justice should leave behind a lead on day 1 in case he died that night. Frinckles suggested this in the setup workshop, probably because Nurse can't heal until only one Mafia remains. However, Banana never left behind a lead. @BananaCucho , how do you explain this? Everyone was townreading you except Light, so I thought you or DS would die last night.

Lastly, why else would Light scumread Banana on day 1 when no one else has?

[Light_Yagami]

It A Little Off But Admirable.

[DS.]

Again it's like: who benefits most from Ganelon dying and flipping town?

[theoneceko]

Also, Banana pushed Revenant HARD during day 1. Light wanted to lynch Ganelon, Death, or Banana:

I Hope Nobody Dies..

We Should Have All Skipped The Day Like I Wanted.

Okay.... Ill Vote My Other Scum Read.. But Only Because U Asked Nicely.

-vote deathworlds

I Am Comfortable With A MM Lynch And Or A Banana Lynch. That Is All

I see Banana's push on Revenant as getting an easy lynch on a scummy-acting town. In hindsight, Revenant was at worst unhelpful, which Death mentioned yesterday:

We shouldn't be lynching players that are unhelpful at worse when there's blatantly scummy people to lynch

[theoneceko]

The only issue I find with Light's read is this:

Marshmallow put Varcron as his top scum read.

List of Reads



BananaCucho

Theoneceko

Deathworlds
Ganelon

(null) - Revenant

DS

Renegade

Light_Yagami
Varcron (one of them is probably town because they don't look SvS, though)

How common is this kind of bussing? I think the scum team is Renegade/Varcron/Banana (more on that later).

[Marshmallow Marshall]

That inertia on Revenant's train was crazy bad. For EoD alone, being the countertrain, Varcron deserves this.

-vote Varcron

And I'm not even including the other weird things about his perspective.


Also, rip Mag =(

Page 24 is thick, whew. Replying to @deathworlds and his reads :

- Why is DS bringing you out of a tunnel on a player who is likely scum (Light) towny? Does that apply only if Light is town, or am I missing something?
- What do you think about Renegade's confidence level? I agree that the list of reads you linked is weak, but it remains within what I would expect from a brand new player coming from the mod. It contrasts greatly in tone compared to your other link, yes, but also to the very convinced and confident tone he adopted back when he was talking about what I think was Heartbreaker stuff.
- I don't think I became less active, but that the site became more active in games. Did you often see D1s with over 1k posts before? Also, accusing me of "tailing the town core", aka sheeping, is dirty and fake. Especially since I'm part of the town core... at least, I was yesterday until Banana made the posts I will address next (and you can already guess I find it strange that I'm suddenly scum!)
- The first post you link from Varcron is just something you disagree with; although I support the read for other reasons (the two other posts being part of that), do you think a simple disagreement on reads is a scumtell? I have a hard time seeing that as valid or right.

Replying to @BananaCucho :

Actress theory is to be considered, but I don't think it should be our main concern atm; let's act as if we still had three scums to lynch.

About the case on me... well, it sucks. I'll take the first posts as examples.
- Pushing early at someone you find scummy is what townies should do. If you're accusing me of not running in circles without accusing anyone, well damn, I'm guilty lol.
- Comparing me to Revenant in terms of content/size is just not valid, and I don't think I need to explain why. The post you linked isn't even bad.
- My reads changing over the course of a very active D1 is not scum indicative. I could even argue that on the contrary, it shows town reevaluation.

About DS, his style could very well be the one of an experienced scum or of an experienced townie; thinking in terms of wagonomics doesn't make someone automatically town.

I'm on the fence between "Banana is a misguided townie" and "Banana is a powerwolf", atm. The case went out of nowhere, he literally finds something to say against me in nearly every post I made while I was part of the Banana Alliance yesterday? Screw that. Off the towncore you go, although I still feel like your D1 was good enough for me to keep you in town leans. Waiting on a reply.


I'll be back later.

[Light_Yagami]

The only issue I find with Light's read is this:

Marshmallow put Varcron as his top scum read.



How common is this kind of bussing? I thought the scum team is Renegade/Varcron/Banana (more on that later).

Its Called Bussing Throwing You Off A Target To Hit Another One Later.. And It Adds Up With My Thoughts Of A Banana MM Varcron Team Because Banana Mentions Varcron In His "Night Actions". They Are The Three Scum Banana MM Varcron.. That They Are..

[Light_Yagami]

That inertia on Revenant's train was crazy bad. For EoD alone, being the countertrain, Varcron deserves this.

-vote Varcron

And I'm not even including the other weird things about his perspective.


Also, rip Mag =(

Page 24 is thick, whew. Replying to @deathworlds and his reads :

- Why is DS bringing you out of a tunnel on a player who is likely scum (Light) towny? Does that apply only if Light is town, or am I missing something?
- What do you think about Renegade's confidence level? I agree that the list of reads you linked is weak, but it remains within what I would expect from a brand new player coming from the mod. It contrasts greatly in tone compared to your other link, yes, but also to the very convinced and confident tone he adopted back when he was talking about what I think was Heartbreaker stuff.
- I don't think I became less active, but that the site became more active in games. Did you often see D1s with over 1k posts before? Also, accusing me of "tailing the town core", aka sheeping, is dirty and fake. Especially since I'm part of the town core... at least, I was yesterday until Banana made the posts I will address next (and you can already guess I find it strange that I'm suddenly scum!)
- The first post you link from Varcron is just something you disagree with; although I support the read for other reasons (the two other posts being part of that), do you think a simple disagreement on reads is a scumtell? I have a hard time seeing that as valid or right.

Replying to @BananaCucho :

Actress theory is to be considered, but I don't think it should be our main concern atm; let's act as if we still had three scums to lynch.

About the case on me... well, it sucks. I'll take the first posts as examples.
- Pushing early at someone you find scummy is what townies should do. If you're accusing me of not running in circles without accusing anyone, well damn, I'm guilty lol.
- Comparing me to Revenant in terms of content/size is just not valid, and I don't think I need to explain why. The post you linked isn't even bad.
- My reads changing over the course of a very active D1 is not scum indicative. I could even argue that on the contrary, it shows town reevaluation.

About DS, his style could very well be the one of an experienced scum or of an experienced townie; thinking in terms of wagonomics doesn't make someone automatically town.

I'm on the fence between "Banana is a misguided townie" and "Banana is a powerwolf", atm. The case went out of nowhere, he literally finds something to say against me in nearly every post I made while I was part of the Banana Alliance yesterday? Screw that. Off the towncore you go, although I still feel like your D1 was good enough for me to keep you in town leans. Waiting on a reply.


I'll be back later.

See What I Mean Busing..

[theoneceko]

Well thats a lie. Cause I'm justice.

N0 I checked Vaccum and Galeon and found them to be the same alignment. I checked them since I have recent experience playing with both of them. As I townread Galeon for the entire day I worked hard to draw attention off of Vaccuum when he hit L-2 without being too obvious about how he's tied to one of my strongest town reads.

N1 I checked DW and Mallow and confirmed what I suspected. Their alignments did not match. I believe MM is the scum here, as I explained at the beginning of the day. I checked them because of the "big 3" I figured the scum was probably between these 2, but would look closer at Galeon if they came back same alignment. They did not.

Kira claiming like this makes me think he's actress and looked at me last night. I was surprised I didn't die as nobody scum read me that I could see but I guess they didn't want Nurse to heal me. Now that Nurse is out of the way they could just kill me tonight, but I guess their strategy is to push a mislynch here with a tailored actress and strong arm this game

So the team is Kira, likely MM, and I dont know who is third

I think Varcron is scum though. You're protecting Varc again, just like you did yesterday by shifting the lynch train from Varcron to Revenant.

[theoneceko]

Banana stop lurking and start typing!! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE. Shouldn't take very long to answer my questions.

[DS.]

That inertia on Revenant's train was crazy bad. For EoD alone, being the countertrain, Varcron deserves this.

-vote Varcron

And I'm not even including the other weird things about his perspective.


Also, rip Mag =(

Page 24 is thick, whew. Replying to @deathworlds and his reads :

- Why is DS bringing you out of a tunnel on a player who is likely scum (Light) towny? Does that apply only if Light is town, or am I missing something?
- What do you think about Renegade's confidence level? I agree that the list of reads you linked is weak, but it remains within what I would expect from a brand new player coming from the mod. It contrasts greatly in tone compared to your other link, yes, but also to the very convinced and confident tone he adopted back when he was talking about what I think was Heartbreaker stuff.
- I don't think I became less active, but that the site became more active in games. Did you often see D1s with over 1k posts before? Also, accusing me of "tailing the town core", aka sheeping, is dirty and fake. Especially since I'm part of the town core... at least, I was yesterday until Banana made the posts I will address next (and you can already guess I find it strange that I'm suddenly scum!)
- The first post you link from Varcron is just something you disagree with; although I support the read for other reasons (the two other posts being part of that), do you think a simple disagreement on reads is a scumtell? I have a hard time seeing that as valid or right.

Replying to @BananaCucho :

Actress theory is to be considered, but I don't think it should be our main concern atm; let's act as if we still had three scums to lynch.

About the case on me... well, it sucks. I'll take the first posts as examples.
- Pushing early at someone you find scummy is what townies should do. If you're accusing me of not running in circles without accusing anyone, well damn, I'm guilty lol.
- Comparing me to Revenant in terms of content/size is just not valid, and I don't think I need to explain why. The post you linked isn't even bad.
- My reads changing over the course of a very active D1 is not scum indicative. I could even argue that on the contrary, it shows town reevaluation.

About DS, his style could very well be the one of an experienced scum or of an experienced townie; thinking in terms of wagonomics doesn't make someone automatically town.

I'm on the fence between "Banana is a misguided townie" and "Banana is a powerwolf", atm. The case went out of nowhere, he literally finds something to say against me in nearly every post I made while I was part of the Banana Alliance yesterday? Screw that. Off the towncore you go, although I still feel like your D1 was good enough for me to keep you in town leans. Waiting on a reply.


I'll be back later.

Why would you vote Varcon and not DW who banana (the person whom your own words say you town read)is saying one of you or DW is scum

[deathworlds]

Replying to @deathworlds and his reads :

- Why is DS bringing you out of a tunnel on a player who is likely scum (Light) towny? Does that apply only if Light is town, or am I missing something?
- What do you think about Renegade's confidence level? I agree that the list of reads you linked is weak, but it remains within what I would expect from a brand new player coming from the mod. It contrasts greatly in tone compared to your other link, yes, but also to the very convinced and confident tone he adopted back when he was talking about what I think was Heartbreaker stuff.
- I don't think I became less active, but that the site became more active in games. Did you often see D1s with over 1k posts before? Also, accusing me of "tailing the town core", aka sheeping, is dirty and fake. Especially since I'm part of the town core... at least, I was yesterday until Banana made the posts I will address next (and you can already guess I find it strange that I'm suddenly scum!)
- The first post you link from Varcron is just something you disagree with; although I support the read for other reasons (the two other posts being part of that), do you think a simple disagreement on reads is a scumtell? I have a hard time seeing that as valid or right.

I don't think there's anything to be gained by replying to mechanically confirmed scum, but I'll humor it for now because it's just been that long since we talked, plus there's never anything wrong with trying to explain my own thought processes behind my reads to everybody else.

It's towny because he did it in a way that made me reveal, explain, and think about the rest of my reads to the rest of the town. Yagami was still one of my top scum reads at the time, but I wasn't giving that much thought to anyone else because I was so focused on him, hence the null reads on you and renegade that day.
I'm not exactly sure of renegade's confidence levels, he doesn't seem to be sure of anything other than his own alignment, which is fine. But I'm unsure how his confidence about any of his other reads would be indicitive of anything, unless he was straight up careless or overconfident to the point of certainty.
I don't find it strange that you're "suddenly scum" I never at any point had a town read on you, and was pretty openly against having you in the towncore. And from a town!Banana perspective it makes some amount of sense to see if his towncore had a hidden scum in it, especially seeing how his towncore last game had a pocketed scum the entire game.
I don't think that a disagreement on reads is necessarily a scumtell, but Varcron's post in particular came to me as having a bit of dissonance, Galeon and I (and Banana at the time) have all been buddying up real tight in the beginning of the game, it's strange how he can come up with the conclusion that Ganelon is scum, while Banana and I are town, from us all mimicking eachother.

[deathworlds]

I'm going to try to make things super clear from my PoV, I recommend everyone else do the same. There are two cases, in both of them, MM is scum, and either Light or Banana are scum.

This is what it looks like from my POV assuming that Banana is justice and is telling the truth.
deathworlds
theoneceko
BananaCucho
DS.
Light_Yagami
Marshmallow Marshall
renegade
Varcron
Green are confirmed town, red are confirmed scum, and white is variable.
That means the last scum is hiding between
renegade
DS.
theoneceko
Out of all of these, I trust them probably in order of Ceko, DS. and renegade, but since nothing is confirmed for me there, I'd have to rely on reads and whatever the night kill is tonight.
It's really hard to guess which of these three it would be, my guess is I would just have to analyze how MM interacted with everyone on the list and see what looked sus.
Also assuming that MM isn't an actress this timeline also confirms that I am town from everyone's POV


This is what it looks like from my POV assuming that Light_Yagami is justice and is telling the truth.
deathworlds
theoneceko
BananaCucho
DS.
Light_Yagami
Marshmallow Marshall
renegade
Varcron
Same rules as before, green is confirmed town, red is scum, white is variable.
This is the cursed timeline, because I really want Banana to be town, but it's still an entirely possible timeline that I have to consider. The scum is hiding in the same list, but just slap Varcron onto the end.
theoneceko
DS.
renegade
Varcron
For this timeline it's kinda easy to form the scum team, Banana/MM/Varcron just kinda fit well together, considering how the train was behaving, but ofc I'd have to take a closer look at how our two confirmed scums interacted with Varcron, who is just scummy, as opposed to confirmed.

[deathworlds]

Oh and please take everything MM says with a grain of salt, he is pretty much confirmed scum at this point

[DS.]

I need to think this all through more before I come to a decision. I'm glad we have another day.

I'm not a fan of you somehow throwing me in the poe there while just a bit ago you were praising my town mentality.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Wowowowow, it would seem I have missed quite a lot. Note that my post reflects my thoughts BEFORE reading anything from D2 outside of page 24, 50 posts/page.

-unvote

because I must check the mechanical stuff. Also, calm down with your "confirmed scum" lol.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

(Justice)-[N1-MM&Banana Same Alignment] - [N2-MM&Mag - Not The Same] - [N3-]

-vote Light_Yagami

Oh well, that solves it. As for Banana's results, it makes the team Deathworlds - Light - [Renegade / DS / Ceko]. Banana and Varcron are confirmed town. The Deathworlds and Varcron part was rather unexpected, I must admit.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Right Go Fuck Yourself

No U

I get that you're scum, but that's seriously rude and uncalled for. Death To The False Gods!!!!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

so if we presume one of these two claims is correct, MM is scum no matter what

No. Deathworlds being scum is the only possibility (from my point of view). Also, there's no reason for them to be both lying. That would basically be gamethrowing.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Im More Then Willing To Lynch Banana Over MM To Prove It..

Incoherent. You claim to have host feedback of me being confirmed scum lol.

[deathworlds]

I need to think this all through more before I come to a decision. I'm glad we have another day.

I'm not a fan of you somehow throwing me in the poe there while just a bit ago you were praising my town mentality.

I do think you're town, I just have to consider the possibility that you aren't.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

@BananaCucho Deathworlds is scum, not me. The heartbreaker talk at start really was just a smokescreen to look towny. I didn't really make any case on him before, but I'll start doing that. Don't lynch me

[deathworlds]

@BananaCucho Deathworlds is scum, not me. The heartbreaker talk at start really was just a smokescreen to look towny. I didn't really make any case on him before, but I'll start doing that. Don't lynch me

Tsk tsk

I've done a whole lot more than just talk about setup.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

I'm goin' to sleep, have fun powerwolfing!

[deathworlds]

Oh and I'm leaving my vote on him for the rest of the day so I don't have to worry about it lol

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Tsk tsk

I've done a whole lot more than just talk about setup.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

I'm goin' to sleep, have fun powerwolfing!

Yep, but you talked about players and reads after I called you out on the heartbreaker talk :P

Also, we're just going to scream at eachother because you're confirmed scum in my eyes and you will claim I am confirmed scum in yours, so I'll save us the trouble lol.

[BananaCucho]

Ugh my motivation to play this game is completely gone

[Renegade]

I will post my reasoning later behind why I think banana cuchi is the true justice and yigama is most likely actress as I have been studying their posts, but I have to get back to work. But here is my current reading:

town:
varcron
DW
banana cuchi
ninento DS


scum
Yigama/MM/Onegeko


Why onecoko to complete the scum triumvirate? He still doesn't even think MM is scum as of this post:

The only issue I find with Light's read is this:

Marshmallow put Varcron as his top scum read.



How common is this kind of bussing? I think the scum team is Renegade/Varcron/Banana (more on that later).

It is painfully obvious that MM is scum, and pages upon pages virtually confirming it due to the justice claim venn diagram overlap. Why is he refusing to acknowledge this?

[BananaCucho]

Kira's posts from day 1 match up with the leads he gave today.

Day 1:





Day 2:


Justice should leave behind a lead on day 1 in case he died that night. Frinckles suggested this in the setup workshop, probably because Nurse can't heal until only one Mafia remains. However, Banana never left behind a lead. @BananaCucho , how do you explain this? Everyone was townreading you except Light, so I thought you or DS would die last night.

Lastly, why else would Light scumread Banana on day 1 when no one else has?

First, people were TPR hunting. Kira himself was justice hunting.

Second, not really my style to leave cryptic messages behind. I made plays based off of what I found (2 players same alignment) and had I died I could be analyzed for that.

I did say during day 1 that I was worried that nobody was scumreading me. I was hoping that someone would analyze my posts and try to point out something scummy to get some heat off of me for a potential night kill. But something that people can meta me on is that I usually am a lot more aggressive at EOD pushing the lynch of who I think should die. I vote parked on Irreverent and pushed that lynch a lot more subtly and hung back a bit more so I wouldnt be in the spotlight as much, and less choice of a target. I guess it worked in a sense but we lost Nurse for it.

Lastly I dont know that Light actually scumread me day 1, I never got that vibe. He just left that 1 cryptic message tying MM and I together. Then he conveniently "checks" the guy that dies, causing this mess.

[BananaCucho]

Ugh theres a lot of posts by MM this morning but I dont really wanna read them

[BananaCucho]

@BananaCucho Deathworlds is scum, not me. The heartbreaker talk at start really was just a smokescreen to look towny. I didn't really make any case on him before, but I'll start doing that. Don't lynch me

I was gonna do a reread of DW to see if I was wrong, but this game is mechanically solved on day 2 and I dont see the point. If you flip town Ill push for his lynch, and if I'm mislynched whatever, on to the next one

[BananaCucho]

Banana stop lurking and start typing!! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE. Shouldn't take very long to answer my questions.

Make me

[theoneceko]

I think Varcron is a good lynch today. I remember him saying that he’s in favourite of his own lynch... as town you should never, ever be in favour of your lynch, especially in this setup. You’re effectively punching a confirmed town by doing that.

If anyone can second this or show me where Varc said this, please let me know.

[theoneceko]

if the apparent choice is me or vacron, then of course I choose vacron, but again, where is this intense scrutiny from dethWorlds and Gamelon on the likes of revenant, who has been flying UNDER THE RADAR, or onececko, who only says UwU???

If that's all you've to say about me, you need to re-read my posts. I've been contributing and asking questions since day 1.

[theoneceko]

What do you think about Reverent and Renegade?

Obviously shouldn't have lynched Irreverant. I'd real-life stuff to do near EOD, so I came in 15 minutes before day 1 ended.

More on RenRen later.

[Renegade]

If that's all you've to say about me, you need to re-read my posts. I've been contributing and asking questions since day 1.

this post came way before some of your more recent contributions, like totally ignoring MM being scum, right?

[theoneceko]

Hey ceko! Thoughts on Revenant, on Varcron, and on Renegade? Day ends in 10 minutes.

I just talked about Ren + Rev in response to DW. About Varcron, he's scum. People are defending him, AKA Banana, Renegade, & DS.

[theoneceko]

this post came way before some of your more recent contributions, like totally ignoring MM being scum, right?

I'm reviewing old posts lol. I haven't checked the EOD until now.

I think MM is scum, especially after your post about the Justice venn diagram thingy. However, I'd rather lynch Banana since he's flying under everyone's radar (except mine or Light's). Therefore, I think Banana is least likely to be Actress and appear as a town role if lynched.

[theoneceko]

You literally created this situation btw.

Why do you think Ganelon started the Revenant lynch instead of Banana?

[BananaCucho]

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

[BananaCucho]

Galeon I see you reading. You will be avenged!

[theoneceko]

Have we considered the possibility that Rev was actress? And purposefully acting goofy because they knew they would flip cit if lynched? Rev train steamed ahead for a long while.

On Rev being actress, I don't think Mafia would be willing to bus a perfect investigative role. Nobody defended Rev, except those who started the lynch train on him lol

[BananaCucho]

I just realized. Today is MLYLO

[BananaCucho]

If we mislynch any day from here on out we lose

Unless Irreverent was actress, which I doubt since Kira is actress

[BananaCucho]

Right? 8 alive. If we are wrong about MM lynch (I still think he's scum), it'll be 3v3 next day, which ends in a loss without nurse, no way for town to win

If MM flips scum its 4v2 next day, mislynch results in 2v2

We can't mislynch at all from here on out