S-FM 196: QT 3.14

[Firebringer]

I am at this point where I am more strongly town on Banana, Kovath, and MattZed.

With not being able to tell out of Helz, Unknown, and PLZ the scum.
I was reading PLZ as much more town earlier and now not as sure.
Helz makes some strong points, but some posts give me bad feelings.

Uknown in general has been lackluster so far, and his intro felt scummish to me.
PLZ posts are more town in tone, but some of his ideas especially the lynch order just rub me wrong.

[Firebringer]

@Helz normally people heavily townread you, yet multiple people here are divided and quite a few scumread you. Thoughts on this?

@MattZed What do you think is the optimal play in the QTs?

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I am at this point where I am more strongly town on Banana, Kovath, and MattZed.

With not being able to tell out of Helz, Unknown, and PLZ the scum.
I was reading PLZ as much more town earlier and now not as sure.
Helz makes some strong points, but some posts give me bad feelings.

Uknown in general has been lackluster so far, and his intro felt scummish to me.
PLZ posts are more town in tone, but some of his ideas especially the lynch order just rub me wrong.

The two non lynches are in your town circle, so why did you not like the list? If you lynch me and spare mattzed(possible given I said banana and kovath could switch me with anyone) then my lynch order wins town the game in your world.

[Firebringer]

The two non lynches are in your town circle, so why did you not like the list? If you lynch me and spare mattzed(possible given I said banana and kovath could switch me with anyone) then my lynch order wins town the game in your world.

In my world I don't expect to nail both scum day 1.

[Unknown1234]

Kovath, I am merely asking questions so that I can hear from other people.

But I can answer my own question. I am not feeling Banana being town, I only read Helz and MattZed as town currently. Fire+Kovath are very clingy, Duck is lacking in his tunnelling (he took his vote off of me, scum move to ALMOST HAMMER HELZ) so I don't trust him at all.

[Firebringer]

Kovath, I am merely asking questions so that I can hear from other people.

But I can answer my own question. I am not feeling Banana being town, I only read Helz and MattZed as town currently. Fire+Kovath are very clingy, Duck is lacking in his tunnelling (he took his vote off of me, scum move to ALMOST HAMMER HELZ) so I don't trust him at all.

how do you mean me and Kovath are clingy?
Cause I am not quite following what you mean here?

You think Duck tunneling is a town tell?

[Kovath]

Do you see the "WE" as a possible soft claim to fire that he is mafia? I don't see another reason for him to emphasize the we there? Last game I tried to do very similar things to iced all game.

I originally just assumed that the E capitalization was a typo or something. Hmm...

I didn't notice the thing with Iced. If Unknown and you were both aware that you were doing it, then I would say that this is not a soft claim. If only you knew about it... it's possible. Very unlikely and I wouldn't have even acknowledged your point at all if it wasn't in the broader context with Unknown right now. As of now I'd say it's probably nothing, especially in the context of the post ("WE are the brains here")

Also, Firebringer is someone I would personally not have softed like that to, but that might just be a product of my own reads.

[Helz]

You wanted me to explain my scumread on unknown, but give mattzed a free pass for no reason?

You are right. I will post a read on MattZed.

I don’t like your response here. I understand you doubt my ability to make too good of reads off little to no content, but the “I know you lying” rubs me the wrong way. The only way you would know I was lying is if you were mafia and had a good idea of who the other one is thus making my strong read on unknown wrong.
The morp(you) was directed at the mattzed orpz hydra.

I really am extremely confident that you were lying about your level of certainty on that read. Its impossible to form strong reads from a few 1 line troll posts. Look at back at his posts.

I'm really missing the presence of.....

-vote BananaCucho

Don't lie. TimeForce*********

Day1 confession. Too soon... Too soon...

Moo. My vote was up top

This is what you formed a hardcore scum read with. Look at that from my perspective. I have a little bit of experience as a player and I know that it is totally impossible to get a hard read from that unless there was some kind of secret code passed in there somewhere. I do believe you lied about your read and that is something you should easily be able to recognize from my perspective here.

Did you not give mattzed the same pass for reasons you said you would not state? Shouldn’t you be considering a world where she is town since both of you feel so strong in reading mattzed as town?

I did not know that Day chat goes away after D1 when I said that. And I do not put much value in matching lines of thought in this kind of setup. The argument that same perspective = same alignment relates to this situation only if scum has no inclination to scum hunt. They do, there is no difference between them and the town other than their win condition. In normal games Scum is informed and town is uninformed and you can use this gap to scum hunt. That just does not exist here which is a massive difference.
I have every intention of maintaining my position and attempting to force Banana to participate in the game at a higher level.

[Firebringer]

You are right. I will post a read on MattZed.



I really am extremely confident that you were lying about your level of certainty on that read. Its impossible to form strong reads from a few 1 line troll posts. Look at back at his posts.

This is what you formed a hardcore scum read with. Look at that from my perspective. I have a little bit of experience as a player and I know that it is totally impossible to get a hard read from that unless there was some kind of secret code passed in there somewhere. I do believe you lied about your read and that is something you should easily be able to recognize from my perspective here.

I did not know that Day chat goes away after D1 when I said that. And I do not put much value in matching lines of thought in this kind of setup. The argument that same perspective = same alignment relates to this situation only if scum has no inclination to scum hunt. They do, there is no difference between them and the town other than their win condition. In normal games Scum is informed and town is uninformed and you can use this gap to scum hunt. That just does not exist here which is a massive difference.
I have every intention of maintaining my position and attempting to force Banana to participate in the game at a higher level.

See this is a town looking post from Helz.
Some previous ones looked scummish.

[Unknown1234]

how do you mean me and Kovath are clingy?
Cause I am not quite following what you mean here?

You think Duck tunneling is a town tell?

Before I called you out for it, you were being Ducks buddy. That is something that scum would do. I didn't mean Kovath, don't know why that was there, I meant Banana trying to friend everyone

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

In my world I don't expect to nail both scum day 1.

Do you think I go into the lynch order post expecting to be town read for it? Do you think I believe people are going to follow a 4 day lynch order already mapped out on day 1? If I am scum do not you feel I would be trying to fit into the town better?

Actual scum things I have done this game 1) vote helz to L-1.

[Firebringer]

Do you think I go into the lynch order post expecting to be town read for it? Do you think I believe people are going to follow a 4 day lynch order already mapped out on day 1? If I am scum do not you feel I would be trying to fit into the town better?

Actual scum things I have done this game 1) vote helz to L-1.

All of this is just WIFOM non sense.

Its something I would do. Do something kind of scummy and say "would I do this as scum" you can do taht with almost anything.

WOULD SCUM REALLY DO THIS!?!?!?!

Too scummy to be scum can be a thing, but if you point it out yourself, then you knew fully well your actions. Being self aware of it and trying to use it is scummy in of itself.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

Kovath, I am merely asking questions so that I can hear from other people.

But I can answer my own question. I am not feeling Banana being town, I only read Helz and MattZed as town currently. Fire+Kovath are very clingy, Duck is lacking in his tunnelling (he took his vote off of me, scum move to ALMOST HAMMER HELZ) so I don't trust him at all.

zzzzzz the sad part is you aren't even going to end up getting lynched today. I admonished people for not letting me bus you day 1 last game, and now I am going to REALLY flame them this game. It is really sad that I am the only one who knows you are mafia.

[BananaCucho]

Seeing how much she defended me when she does not agree with the the reads or the style of play yes. My posts have been mostly trash tier so even if they give her a town tell she should have been more alarmed and questioned me.

I still read her as town for now, but there was one interaction that has me skeptical. When I mentioned that she would pay for picking hanzo over widomaker (shitpost to the max), I expected an angry banana, but I got a hanzo quote reply. Banana is the kind of player to expect highly analytical thought provoking posts, yet she did not criticize the worst post I could make.

I think you're confusing me with Darkness. I don't freak out over shitposting but will rather insult your play if that's all you're doing, which isn't the case with you.

What is drawing my attention is her quickly giving out passes for D1. In her 2nd post she flat out says she wont lynch MattZed today. Then in post 178 she says she does not want to lynch Unknown or you today. She is very quickly letting players know they can feel safe with her which would be a strong way to 'feel players out' for a mafia team mate while also giving the players that have a higher potential for being the D1 lynch target an inclination to follow and trust her.

I think you're mistaking a joke about MZ always getting lynched day 1 for something its not. I never give anyone a 100% free pass.

Just want to point out this, even though I think its plainly obvious.
Scum primary motivation isn't likely to not get lynched today, its probably to cut of our best communication source (Day 1), and ending it early. This is why PLZ putting Helz at L-1 so early in the day, is so terrible.

With little to go off, the PTs will be harder for us to come to conclusions, it will be harder to communicate our thoughts altogether, and it will make it easier for scum to manipulate mislynches.

We have still two more days, and I definitely don't think we should do a lynch up until last few hours of this game day.

This is why I town read you early - I felt you were trying to lay a dumb trap for scum - while others said "hurr durr Fire is coaching scum" I immediately saw how stupid of a strategy that would be for any scum to play with. Even though it was dumb and obvious, you got the town nod for trying.

Before I called you out for it, you were being Ducks buddy. That is something that scum would do. I didn't mean Kovath, don't know why that was there, I meant Banana trying to friend everyone

Everyone bitches and complains about how "toxic" I am, and when I try to relax a bit, I'm not being aggressive enough (Helz said so) or I'm trying to "friend everyone". If I'm lynched for not keeping up with the usual aggressive play I exhibit as both town AND scum, so be it, I'm already not sleeping well so I definitely won't lose any additional sleep over it.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

All of this is just WIFOM non sense.

Its something I would do. Do something kind of scummy and say "would I do this as scum" you can do taht with almost anything.

WOULD SCUM REALLY DO THIS!?!?!?!

Too scummy to be scum can be a thing, but if you point it out yourself, then you knew fully well your actions. Being self aware of it and trying to use it is scummy in of itself.

Yeah well it isn't my playstyle. I WOULD NEVER say "I am bored, if activity does not pick up I am requesting to be replaced" as scum. WIFOM all you want, that is not my style, and I don't lie about shit like that. I would rather be correctly lynched then to win as scum by some "I would never do that" cheap tactic.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I think you're confusing me with Darkness. I don't freak out over shitposting but will rather insult your play if that's all you're doing, which isn't the case with you.



I think you're mistaking a joke about MZ always getting lynched day 1 for something its not. I never give anyone a 100% free pass.



This is why I town read you early - I felt you were trying to lay a dumb trap for scum - while others said "hurr durr Fire is coaching scum" I immediately saw how stupid of a strategy that would be for any scum to play with. Even though it was dumb and obvious, you got the town nod for trying.



Everyone bitches and complains about how "toxic" I am, and when I try to relax a bit, I'm not being aggressive enough (Helz said so) or I'm trying to "friend everyone". If I'm lynched for not keeping up with the usual aggressive play I exhibit as both town AND scum, so be it, I'm already not sleeping well so I definitely won't lose any additional sleep over it.

Please be toxic banana, I need the spark.

[Helz]

From MattZed I see a very consistent line of thought. Every push he has made is perfectly matched by his reasoning and he has not been afraid to voice his reasoning. Off the bat he shamelessly supports a policy lynch if the situation called for it which matches with his recent experience in the FM with the scum lurking to win. He follows up challenging others logic when it does not match his own and providing multiple original thoughts. He also shows some really deep thinking in post 144 examining the game state, its effect on scum perspective and then applying that to my projected scum tell and analyzing my line of thought. The post prior to this one is where I stated that I town read him.

[MattZed]

@Helz normally people heavily townread you, yet multiple people here are divided and quite a few scumread you. Thoughts on this?

@MattZed What do you think is the optimal play in the QTs?

Tell zero lies and, in general, send identical copies of each message to everyone. The lack of a public chat is meant to help scum, not town, and it's best to take that away from them. If town commits to not lying, then we avoid having to deal with town gambiting to getting people to confess to being mafia. I'd instantly vote anyone who confessed being mafia to me, and I think this is the optimal play; if everyone agreed to do it, then scum run a very high risk in trying to find their partner. Lying is just absolutely chaotic since we can't confirm what was said. If we have a "he said, she said" going on between two town, I'm going to very disappointed when this game is over.

The alternative play I can see is trying to form a 3-person town block. If such a block is formed D2, when it's either 4v2 or 4v1, town can't lose if they successfully create a town-only block and lynch outside of it. This is a setup where townreads matter just as much as scumreads. One could try sharing extra information with their strongest townread, but this runs the risk of their read simply being wrong and scum having more control over information. Overall, I'd encourage townhunting, but the safest tactic for town is to keep EVERYTHING public.

[BananaCucho]

When I saw duck had put Helz at L-1, I was typing that I might have to rethink my read on him

He retracted the vote a few posts later. Given ducks emotional play style it was more of a null move than anything.

[Firebringer]

When I saw duck had put Helz at L-1, I was typing that I might have to rethink my read on him

He retracted the vote a few posts later. Given ducks emotional play style it was more of a null move than anything.

I don't think his tone at the time matched the emotional nature of just doing a bad vote at the time.
Mildly annoyed maybe, but I don't think that matches with lets put someone in hammer range of a town.
Tone wise (which usually I am good at reading) the actions don't match the post.

Thats what I was getting from that, but maybe I need to reread, I kind of read it pretty fast this morning.

[BananaCucho]

I don't think his tone at the time matched the emotional nature of just doing a bad vote at the time.
Mildly annoyed maybe, but I don't think that matches with lets put someone in hammer range of a town.
Tone wise (which usually I am good at reading) the actions don't match the post.

Thats what I was getting from that, but maybe I need to reread, I kind of read it pretty fast this morning.

He says "I hope someone hammers you" and then immediately retracts the vote. How many times have you voted me based on pure emotion and then immediately retracted it, Romeo?

[Firebringer]

He says "I hope someone hammers you" and then immediately retracts the vote. How many times have you voted me based on pure emotion and then immediately retracted it, Romeo?

Your pointing to a time I was Neutral Town. And I got annoyed and decided to side with the faction I can win with (Baratheon)

I will go fuck myself in the cucho now though.

[Helz]

@Helz normally people heavily townread you, yet multiple people here are divided and quite a few scumread you. Thoughts on this?

I trolled a good bit in ways I knew would fuck with people and posted a bunch of reads while totally shitfaced. Kinda hard to see consistent reasoning through that.

[Helz]

I think you're mistaking a joke about MZ always getting lynched day 1 for something its not. I never give anyone a 100% free pass.

Maybe. But my point still stands.

Everyone bitches and complains about how "toxic" I am, and when I try to relax a bit, I'm not being aggressive enough (Helz said so) or I'm trying to "friend everyone". If I'm lynched for not keeping up with the usual aggressive play I exhibit as both town AND scum, so be it, I'm already not sleeping well so I definitely won't lose any additional sleep over it.

Even if you are taking up a new play style that is less toxic you can still contribute original thoughts to the game and analyze players to the same extent as normal. The reason people read you as toxic is the way you present the material. Not the material itself.

[Helz]

Tell zero lies and, in general, send identical copies of each message to everyone. The lack of a public chat is meant to help scum, not town, and it's best to take that away from them. If town commits to not lying, then we avoid having to deal with town gambiting to getting people to confess to being mafia. I'd instantly vote anyone who confessed being mafia to me, and I think this is the optimal play; if everyone agreed to do it, then scum run a very high risk in trying to find their partner. Lying is just absolutely chaotic since we can't confirm what was said. If we have a "he said, she said" going on between two town, I'm going to very disappointed when this game is over.

The alternative play I can see is trying to form a 3-person town block. If such a block is formed D2, when it's either 4v2 or 4v1, town can't lose if they successfully create a town-only block and lynch outside of it. This is a setup where townreads matter just as much as scumreads. One could try sharing extra information with their strongest townread, but this runs the risk of their read simply being wrong and scum having more control over information. Overall, I'd encourage townhunting, but the safest tactic for town is to keep EVERYTHING public.

I would like to add on this. If anyone decides to pull some fucked off crazy gambit at the very least tell a few people what you are up to before you do it. I could easily see a poorly played gambit creating a situation the scum can capitalize on and ruining the town. It would probably be best to not pull any such nonsense at all.

[BananaCucho]

Maybe. But my point still stands.
Even if you are taking up a new play style that is less toxic you can still contribute original thoughts to the game and analyze players to the same extent as normal. The reason people read you as toxic is the way you present the material. Not the material itself.

Yeah because I'm not contributing original thoughts at all. I'm being a mindless sheep and restating things everyone else has already said. Totally accurate.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

He says "I hope someone hammers you" and then immediately retracts the vote. How many times have you voted me based on pure emotion and then immediately retracted it, Romeo?

The reason I voted helz is because I just played a game where I was unable to get an OBVIOUS mafia bussed, and now we have a player who basically says "I can't fathom this read so it cant be true". I rather lynch a town that will stand in my way of lynching the mafia later on than to keep him alive.

Now that being said after my ISO, my reads are flipped: (In order of strength)
Town:
Banana
Kovath
Helz

Null:MattZed (will iso him soon)

Mafia:
Unknown
Firebringer

Helz raised good points about Fire's inconsistency. Earlier on I had fire as a town read, but mentioned being concerned about his pockety nature. The only two people in this game I expect to currently read me as town are banana, and Fire. If fire were to say I am flipping on duck because that vote on helz was egregious ( I know he mentioned it) then I would agree, but he keeps trying to discredit me with things he KNOWS I am town for. I am not saying my actions were towny (they were scummy), but fire knows that I only do these actions as town. That by itself is not very strong, but the fact of his early inconsistencies, and that helz was also aware of this combined with him now flipping on me are worth noting. I still would never lynch fire over unknown today.

Sorry for my atrocious play this far, I don't want to blame the fever, but I am blaming the fever.

[Helz]

Yeah because I'm not contributing original thoughts at all. I'm being a mindless sheep and restating things everyone else has already said. Totally accurate.

Ok there Miss Strawman. Lets pretend that is what I was saying if its easier for you to deflect a poke for greater contribution than to simply get more involved with the game.

[BananaCucho]

Ok there Miss Strawman. Lets pretend that is what I was saying if its easier for you to deflect a poke for greater contribution than to simply get more involved with the game.

Stating I'm not involved enough is bullshit - I don't have to be here posting every hour. I've read the thread, responded to the posts I've felt that have stood out to me and questioned that which I don't agree with.

[Helz]

Stating I'm not involved enough is bullshit - I don't have to be here posting every hour. I've read the thread, responded to the posts I've felt that have stood out to me and questioned that which I don't agree with.

Thats fine. I think your just limiting your posts and interactions because you are afraid of slipping. I am not going to hold your hand and spoon feed you questions. Play however you want to but I do not town read you for a lot more than just the gap between your level of play here and what you are capable of.

[BananaCucho]

I don't slip. Don't be silly.

[MattZed]

The reason I voted helz is because I just played a game where I was unable to get an OBVIOUS mafia bussed, and now we have a player who basically says "I can't fathom this read so it cant be true". I rather lynch a town that will stand in my way of lynching the mafia later on than to keep him alive.

Now that being said after my ISO, my reads are flipped: (In order of strength)
Town:
Banana
Kovath
Helz

Null:MattZed (will iso him soon)

Mafia:
Unknown
Firebringer

Helz raised good points about Fire's inconsistency. Earlier on I had fire as a town read, but mentioned being concerned about his pockety nature. The only two people in this game I expect to currently read me as town are banana, and Fire. If fire were to say I am flipping on duck because that vote on helz was egregious ( I know he mentioned it) then I would agree, but he keeps trying to discredit me with things he KNOWS I am town for. I am not saying my actions were towny (they were scummy), but fire knows that I only do these actions as town. That by itself is not very strong, but the fact of his early inconsistencies, and that helz was also aware of this combined with him now flipping on me are worth noting. I still would never lynch fire over unknown today.

Sorry for my atrocious play this far, I don't want to blame the fever, but I am blaming the fever.

This list reads as incredibly survivalistic to me. His scum reads are the two people voting him, his null read is the most recent person to unvote him, and his weakest town read was the other person to have previously voted him. But I do like that he's owning up to voting people who disagree with his methods. In general, I'd consider this a scum-motivated move, but in this case, from past encounters with Duckk, I'm willing to consider that this is how he plays as town, even if suboptimal.

-FoS on Duckk

I must disagree very strongly with the approach. Duckk, if you're town, listen to me. People are going to have different playstyles and ideas about how the game should go. One of the easiest ways for scum to win is to trap town into thinking "agrees with me" = "is my alignment." Town is inevitably going to disagree with town on reads and how to vote simply because they're uninformed, especially on D1. However, basically any half-decent can be swayed to your position if your case is sound and you present it well. Trying to lynch people who disagree with you is self-defeating; if you can convince enough people to lynch those who disagree with you, then you can convince people to vote with you on your actual scumreads. But the two lists, your scumreads and your ideological opponents, shouldn't overlap so neatly. Scum aren't revealed by what they think about how the game should be played, but rather by their motives and, more importantly, how these motives match what they're doing. You don't want to look at who agrees/disagrees with you, but rather, why.
@PLZLEAVEDUCKK , in the meantime, would you care to elaborate on why you have BananaCucho as your highest townread?

[BananaCucho]

MattZed why are you still voting Helz? Do you consider him the most scummy player?

[MattZed]

MattZed why are you still voting Helz? Do you consider him the most scummy player?

I never considered him the most scummy player, but I voted him because he had a bit of explaining to do with his overreaction to the 99.99% affair.

Lynches at this point in the day are silly. We only have one day of public discussion, and there's no point in cutting that short early. I'm using votes to drive discussion, not lynch anyone. I'd be voting Duckk right now if it wouldn't put him at L-1. As I explained in a few posts before and as everyone has figured out, scum have a perverse incentive to die D2. I would not put it past a scum to premature hammer and let their ally try to win MYLO after our shortened day.

[BananaCucho]

That's what I was thinking. I still think Helz is scummy but I town read too many people this game. I would rather vote unknown over duck though.

[BananaCucho]

In fact unknown has only one vote

-vote Unknown1234

[MattZed]

That's what I was thinking. I still think Helz is scummy but I town read too many people this game. I would rather vote unknown over duck though.

I would lynch Unknown over Duckk because of the policy lynch factor and because I think low participation, in game that started this quickly after signups, is the tell of shy scum. But Duckk is the more useful pressure for the time being because he's actually here and willing to respond. There is only so much I can forgive on account of different playstyles/ being new to FM.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

lol ignore me I missed the BC vote early on.
Back to my random vote.

-vote PLZLEAVEDUCKK

I find it odd that you would switch back to me because of “random”, but I think if you were mafia you would be more likely to latch onto any reasoning for the vote rather than just saying “random”.

Why are you so afraid of being voted? You have literally claimed mafia.

This reeks of sheep, which town have no incentive toward at this point. I become more confident that my vote on Duck is correct.

I did not like this early post. 1) I did not sheep my vote onto unknown 2) if I there was a vote on him if I rolled town and would have sheeped my vote for specific reasons. If your vote on me was random, why is it more confident now, implying that it was confident before?

Liar. If you thought I was mafia you wouldn't be trying to kill me so early.

His quote is directed at fire, but I do not agree that people will not be trying to kill their mafia reads early on (Me trying to kill unknown two games in a row now.)

Not that I'm objecting, but why are you appointing me town leader? 0_o

This to me looks like a mafia response to being town leader. I think he is more confused at the terrible read by Kovath. If he was town I would think he would be more critical rather than inquisitive about it.

You used to feed mine.
But I'm starting to like your continued presence in this thread. Since Mafia doesn't yet have a night kill, active town don't have to worry about being killed.
I wouldn't be opposed to lynching the least active player if nothing interesting happens after 48 hours. This is going to be a discussion heavy game, and there's no sense in leaving null slots.
(note the IF.)

Don’t agree with this read at all. Activity is not alignment indicative as evident by me as mafia in the previous game.

Why aren't you reading your posts before hitting submit? We only have 72 hours to make the most of D1, and any shit posts detract from analysis we can perform later.

This is where I start to read matt. Having meaningful and well-structured posts is beneficial to town and make it harder for scum to mislead town and twist words in unclear posts.

I get the feeling this is a serious post and you're testing if you actually found your ally, but hiding it as a joke.

As mafia, I do openly claim mafia, and say very dumb things like “dude we need to distance”, so I like him pinging me out for this here.

But do scum agree to be lynched?
I have reasons to suspect Duckk, but "wanting to be lynched" isn't one of them.

Agrees with kovath’s point, but decides to use his own logic rather than sheeping onto his logic which would have been reasonable to do here.

@BananaCucho , I switched back to Duckk because he was online and he was the one I thought could be most usefully interrogated by a D1 RV.
As much as it pains me to say this, I agree with Banana about Helz. The overcertainty fits too superficially into the category of "things Helz would be doing as town;" Helz likes to latch onto overconfidence, (a technique I agree with in general) but here it doesn't really apply. Duckk was clearly being hyperbolic. But what's more suspicious is that scum aren't informed in this setup, so scum's true confidence shouldn't be any different from a town's.
Of course, 99.99% confidence is simply not true in any case, which might suggest Duckk is either being careless about his reads (the more likely explanation, tbh), or is scum and is intentionally going after people he thinks are not his partner and making the case too strongly. But this doesn't really hold up, because the problem Helz has is with the strength of the read, not the read itself. The question to be asked is "if Duck were town/scum, how likely would he be to claim "99.99% confidence""? I don't see scum Duckk being much more likely than town Duckk to be doing this, and I doubt continuing this angle will be productive.
Helz, I want an explanation as to why you're so stuck on an alleged overconfidence slip in a game where scum are uninformed.

-vote Helz

If I had to take odds, I would obviously never bet on a 99.99 to 0.01 that Unknown is mafia. I am simply stating that I trust in my early game reads enough that me saying “unknown is mafia” is more than just early game pushing, but an actual read that I believe and should be pursued until unknown contributes more.

I can read scum motivation into Duckk's attempted 1v1. Scum can win by getting 3 mislynches in a row, but alternatively they can shorten it to two mislynches if the D2 lynch is on scum. I'd say that, in this setup, it's easier for scum to win 4v1 MYLO than 3v2 LYLO. (A LYLO that buys us a mislynch if we succeed) Hence, one route to scum victory is to have one partner be the D2 lynch. Setting up a 1v1 on someone scum townreads is precisely the case for that, because it means the partner only needs to secure one more mislynch. No need to be clever and find your partner; just need to suicide and take someone with you.

Of course, this is all predicated on Duckk actually townreading Unknown. I can buy this, since Duckk hasn't given a non-meta reason to scumread Unknown, (thus, his true meta read could be a townread) but I don't actually see directly evidence at the moment that Duckk townreads Unknown. Yes, the 99.99% comment is clearly false, but I'm not confident saying "He is scum lying about his townread" as opposed to just "he's town with a meta read that he's being hyperbolic about."

I offered to be lynched first, and the offer still stands.

You said yourself that you wouldn't lynch me or Kovath unless something major happened, and you haven't meaningfully pressured or prodded either of us. Why are those passes different from the ones Banana gave?

This is probably the towniest thing he has done. He is clearly following what helz has been saying, and calls him out for criticizing play that he himself has been doing. He basically had a free pass from Helz, but is opening himself to being questioned.

[Helz]

That's what I was thinking. I still think Helz is scummy but I town read too many people this game. I would rather vote unknown over duck though.

In fact unknown has only one vote

-vote Unknown1234

What is your read on Unknown?

[BananaCucho]

What is your read on Unknown?

Its mostly nullish. I have a town read on Fire, Duck, and Matt, a scum lean on you and the other two are null. I don't think my vote is going to do much more on you for the time being though and I'd rather not just tunnel all game.

[Kovath]

In fact unknown has only one vote

-vote Unknown1234

Don't like this post. Votes are meaningless right now, we're not going to lynch anyone any time soon and end Day 1, plus the difference between 1 and 2 votes is zilch. As a signal of intent to pressure it's also suspect, just swapping votes onto your name pressure target but adding no reasoning at all behind the vote. As far as I can tell this is motivated by one of the two approaches put forward so far: Duck's scum read or MattZed's policy lynch, but with no distinction we're basically left in the dark as to what is actually driving this choice of target.

Also, post #176 from way earlier in the day:
"Null but slightly town leaning after your interaction with him. He feels green and seems to be focused in the wrong places / thinking that something is scummy when it really isn't - but what he's saying feels genuine and not forced so it gives a town vibe."

And post #178:
I don't believe his argument on you is solid, but I don't scum read him for it. Note that I gave you a slight town lean and my vote is on Helz, not you.

I think duck is confident in his read on you even though I disagree with it. Don't try to make me choose sides because I wouldn't like to lynch either of you today."

Not sure what has driven the change from looking over Banana's posts.

[Kovath]

Its mostly nullish. I have a town read on Fire, Duck, and Matt, a scum lean on you and the other two are null. I don't think my vote is going to do much more on you for the time being though and I'd rather not just tunnel all game.

Oh, seems this was written when I was writing mine.

Why do you think 2 instead of 1 votes on Unknown at the moment is a substantive change?

[BananaCucho]

Votes are never meaningless, kid.

[BananaCucho]

Oh, seems this was written when I was writing mine.

Why do you think 2 instead of 1 votes on Unknown at the moment is a substantive change?

There is a world of difference between L-2 with MZ saying he'd rather vote Unknown over Duck (potential L-1) and L-3. Unknown feels green/new so I'm putting more pressure on him so I can better evaluate him once he responds.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

This list reads as incredibly survivalistic to me. His scum reads are the two people voting him, his null read is the most recent person to unvote him, and his weakest town read was the other person to have previously voted him. But I do like that he's owning up to voting people who disagree with his methods. In general, I'd consider this a scum-motivated move, but in this case, from past encounters with Duckk, I'm willing to consider that this is how he plays as town, even if suboptimal.

-FoS on Duckk

I must disagree very strongly with the approach. Duckk, if you're town, listen to me. People are going to have different playstyles and ideas about how the game should go. One of the easiest ways for scum to win is to trap town into thinking "agrees with me" = "is my alignment." Town is inevitably going to disagree with town on reads and how to vote simply because they're uninformed, especially on D1. However, basically any half-decent can be swayed to your position if your case is sound and you present it well. Trying to lynch people who disagree with you is self-defeating; if you can convince enough people to lynch those who disagree with you, then you can convince people to vote with you on your actual scumreads. But the two lists, your scumreads and your ideological opponents, shouldn't overlap so neatly. Scum aren't revealed by what they think about how the game should be played, but rather by their motives and, more importantly, how these motives match what they're doing. You don't want to look at who agrees/disagrees with you, but rather, why.
@PLZLEAVEDUCKK , in the meantime, would you care to elaborate on why you have BananaCucho as your highest townread?

First of all if you compare my read lists, the only thing that changed was switching fire with helz, and this was for two reasons. 1) Fire was in my alternate world as mafia based on his pockety play. The reason I am switching to this world is because of my ISO on helz. I didn't really care much for drunk walls of text last night, but now re-reading his posts I am seeing a town agenda. You were null because I have been sick and not able to really read your posts. You are in my town circle... which looks like im mafia trying to adapt to negative feedback, but I was posting my long ISO on you before I even saw your post so take that for what its worth.

As for banana she knows how I play and she correctly defended me against helz, and now is holding her position well against his comments. Yeah the world where she is pocketing me is there, and I plan to look more into it. I am curious why I am still town read by her after putting helz to L-1. I should be in nobodies town circle after that vote.

I should have kovath as strongest town read , but I think future day 1 posts by banana will give me a stronger read on her alignment and be more beneficial to town. If her upcoming posts follow in line with her current play and do not confirm the pockety vibe she is my strongest town. I will probably ISO banana soon to post better reasoning, but that is the general gist of it.

[Kovath]

There is a world of difference between L-2 with MZ saying he'd rather vote Unknown over Duck (potential L-1) and L-3. Unknown feels green/new so I'm putting more pressure on him so I can better evaluate him once he responds.

That's better than "Votes are never meaningless, kid." I personally don't think anyone should be scared of getting lynched right now or even in the next 24 hours but I understand this reasoning.

[Firebringer]

Town bloc of me Banana and Matt wins the game.
GG and Calix can call the game now.

[BananaCucho]

Duck while the reasoning you had for putting Helz at L-1 was different than what I thought it was, you corrected me instead of being content with a town read. That made me town read you more, not less.

[BananaCucho]

Town bloc of me Banana and Matt wins the game.
GG and Calix can call the game now.

I really dislike town blocs.

[PLZLEAVEDUCKK]

I have a town block of myself, and none of you fuckers are invited BECAUSE UNKNOWN is not dead so I hope you put him into your own blocks and let him stab you in the back. Actually I hope you take both mafia into your block and let them take turns stabbing you violently.