S-FM 348: Standoff

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Shut up, you're bad at pretending you're stupid. Please forfeit so I can sleep on my laurels.

Uh, no. You're talking like Deathworlds is town, but that should be IMPOSSIBLE from town!Debbie's point of view, unless there is something I am missing - so if I am missing something, please do enlighten me.

[Loldebite]

ika coaching MM, the student has surpassed the master

[Wiml]

> And even if that target is a wolf, if we mistakenly townread them then it still benefits us in the end as scum-Death would die.

I don't follow, sorry.

Yeah 1 people dying is always simplifying, true

Basically tldr doesn't matter if the person wolf-Death scans is a member of the mafia because it still closes their options off and if Death tries to call you w/w with their teammate and the teammate is townier than Death, Death will get voted anyway.

Or just

The scan will help anyway to some degree, there's way too many ifs and buts and moving parts and it's too late here fir me to consider every one but the scan will always be a new positive to town regardless of what alignment Death is.

[ikarusdk]

if you guys are v/v then ikarus is a wolf 100% of the time so think on that for a minute

Since you like it when I act wolfy
Imagine if I drugged death xD but I insist I did not do it

[Loldebite]

Uh, no. You're talking like Deathworlds is town, but that should be IMPOSSIBLE from town!Debbie's point of view, unless there is something I am missing - so if I am missing something, please do enlighten me.

blablablabla blablablabala I spread doubt and make it look like you're not making sense when you're simply talking to people from their pov which is obvious blablablabla

I told you : you're bad at pretending you're stupid, you should stop hurting yourself.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

There is one wolf among citizen claim between Mizery, Vittae and yourself because Pod flipped citizen. There are 3 citizens in this set up because I know I am town PR. Varcron flipped town PR. There is one town PR between lol and deb.

Even if Varcron was tailored to be a PR from a citizen, it means nothing because that still means there is a wolf in citizen list

Wouldn't scum!Deathworlds just... lie, though? Investigations are only reliable if we really have a town investigator lol

[Loldebite]

Since you like it when I act wolfy
Imagine if I drugged death xD but I insist I did not do it

DONT
SAY
THAT

[Wiml]

...

FFS I guess there's a world where bartender fucked with DW's feedback

Or a role that can swap targets but yes.

Another reason to sleep as Ikarus isn't confirmed town by any means here nor am I from an objective standpoint so my death would be a net positive too.

[Loldebite]

Wouldn't scum!Deathworlds just... lie, though? Investigations are only reliable if we really have a town investigator lol

Like, please, tell me I'm not the only one finding MM lost 50 IQ in one night ?

[ikarusdk]

DONT
SAY
THAT

Was it wolfy enough xD

[Loldebite]

Or a role that can swap targets but yes.

Another reason to sleep as Ikarus isn't confirmed town by any means here nor am I from an objective standpoint so my death would be a net positive too.

Well since we stand to loose nothing anyway.

-vote skip

[Marshmallow Marshall]

blablablabla blablablabala I spread doubt and make it look like you're not making sense when you're simply talking to people from their pov which is obvious blablablabla

I told you : you're bad at pretending you're stupid, you should stop hurting yourself.

I'm not making it look like you're not making sense, I'm saying you slipped lmao.
@Vittae how does the scan help us if Deathworlds is scum? In that world, he could even be something that isn't investigator.

[Loldebite]

I'm not making it look like you're not making sense, I'm saying you slipped lmao.
@Vittae how does the scan help us if Deathworlds is scum? In that world, he could even be something that isn't investigator.

Phrase it that way if you will, I don't even know why I'm bothering reading your posts at this point

[Marshmallow Marshall]

...

FFS I guess there's a world where bartender fucked with DW's feedback

OH

Sorry, I'm stupid lmao, nevermind the last posts. That basically means everything is possible though...

[Wiml]

Skip is at L-2, please don't hammer it as more time to go over mech and look at players would be useful

[Loldebite]

OH

Sorry, I'm stupid lmao, nevermind the last posts. That basically means everything is possible though...

Nope. I don't buy it.

[Loldebite]

Skip is at L-2, please don't hammer it as more time to go over mech and look at players would be useful

Mh, true, it might be better to leave it even for now.

-vote unvote

[Loldebite]

Well gents, unless there's something else you need me for, I'll consider slipping in my not-so-hot but still deliciously comfortable bed

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Nope. I don't buy it.

It doesn't mean you're necessarily town, mind you, so don't buy it as much as you like.

In this case, though, can't scum!Ikarus just re-mess with Deathworlds' feedback tonight?

[Loldebite]

It doesn't mean you're necessarily town, mind you, so don't buy it as much as you like.

In this case, though, can't scum!Ikarus just re-mess with Deathworlds' feedback tonight?

Lol no I mean I don't buy it that you're genuine

[Loldebite]

It doesn't mean you're necessarily town, mind you, so don't buy it as much as you like.

In this case, though, can't scum!Ikarus just re-mess with Deathworlds' feedback tonight?

I don't think we give a single flying fuck to anyone's feedback tbh

[Wiml]

I'm not making it look like you're not making sense, I'm saying you slipped lmao.
@Vittae how does the scan help us if Deathworlds is scum? In that world, he could even be something that isn't investigator.

Let's imagine an oversimplified world with nothing that could affect the scan for convenience sake.

If Death is a wolf and he comes back tomorrow saying I'm a wolf for example, it would only take one of me and Deb to be villagery in order to get Death killed.

If Death comes back calling somebody town, that person can't be Deb's partner. We could force Death to check, say, Deb's most likely wolf partner and then that's a difficult commitment for Death to make.

That's the theory anyway, roles screwing with the results might make it harder for us in this setup but it's still a net positive.

And even if the scan if useless the extra confirmed villager from the death (nobody at this point is guaranteed to be town including myself from an objective standpoint so it's a positive if I die) and the potential for a wolf to die from poison make sleep worth it.

[Loldebite]

Let's imagine an oversimplified world with nothing that could affect the scan for convenience sake.

If Death is a wolf and he comes back tomorrow saying I'm a wolf for example, it would only take one of me and Deb to be villagery in order to get Death killed.

If Death comes back calling somebody town, that person can't be Deb's partner. We could force Death to check, say, Deb's most likely wolf partner and then that's a difficult commitment for Death to make.

That's the theory anyway, roles screwing with the results might make it harder for us in this setup but it's still a net positive.

And even if the scan if useless the extra confirmed villager from the death (nobody at this point is guaranteed to be town including myself from an objective standpoint so it's a positive if I die) and the potential for a wolf to die from poison make sleep worth it.

Convoluted way to say that we don't actually care about the scan, but sure

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Lol no I mean I don't buy it that you're genuine

I mean, if you're town, there isn't much I can do to prove that I'm genuine, and if you're scum, you do whatever you want anyway, so evil or skill issue :P

I don't think we give a single flying fuck to anyone's feedback tbh

Considering the situation, that is indeed how it looks; but in this case, why should we skip?

[Wiml]

Convoluted way to say that we don't actually care about the scan, but sure

Yeah I was asked about the scan but like.

The scan if Death is a wolf is the least important thing of the things sleeping gets us.

[Loldebite]

I mean, if you're town, there isn't much I can do to prove that I'm genuine, and if you're scum, you do whatever you want anyway, so evil or skill issue :P


Considering the situation, that is indeed how it looks; but in this case, why should we skip?

Actually yes, there was something you could've done : being genuine and not intentionally misinterpreting and deforming everything I said.

Because an additional death is 1 less potential mislynch ?

You really should stop it...

[Wiml]

Going to bed, night all.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Let's imagine an oversimplified world with nothing that could affect the scan for convenience sake.

If Death is a wolf and he comes back tomorrow saying I'm a wolf for example, it would only take one of me and Deb to be villagery in order to get Death killed.

If Death comes back calling somebody town, that person can't be Deb's partner. We could force Death to check, say, Deb's most likely wolf partner and then that's a difficult commitment for Death to make.

That's the theory anyway, roles screwing with the results might make it harder for us in this setup but it's still a net positive.

And even if the scan if useless the extra confirmed villager from the death (nobody at this point is guaranteed to be town including myself from an objective standpoint so it's a positive if I die) and the potential for a wolf to die from poison make sleep worth it.

Fair enough, sleeping ends up giving us more info no matter what. My vote is there in spirit, but I won't place it to avoid hammers, since we want that time to discuss.

[Loldebite]

Yeah I was asked about the scan but like.

The scan if Death is a wolf is the least important thing of the things sleeping gets us.

Yeah that came a bit more aggressive than I intended, sorry lol

Tbh I meant to ask too but figured it wasn't important since regardless of the scan there's good reasons to sleep. Glad to see I'm not completely off the charts bonkers insane yet

[Loldebite]

Going to bed, night all.

Same. Night everyone that is town, you'll know who you are.

[ikarusdk]

Current situation

Confirmed dead
PoD - citizen
Varcron - town PR (tailored?)

Citizen claims (one of them is scum)
Mizery
MM
Vittae

PR claims (one of them is scum)
ikarusdk
loldebite - claims snitch
deathworld - claims investigator (claims loldebte scanned tailor)

SET UP summary - From this we know, 3 citizens and 3 Town PR and 2 scum PR.
One scum in citizen claim, one scum in PR claim
Although it IS POSSIBLE we have 4 citizens and 2 town PR, it is less likely as currently either death/lol is not telling the truth.


IF WE SKIP

Night kill speculation (1)
Kills ikarusdk

and the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf)

NK speculation (2)
Kills one citizen

and the next day
Citizen claim 2 people (50% to find wolf)
PR claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)

NK speculation (3)
Kills either death/lol

and the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf - but then I know exactly who the wolf is so it becomes me vs the other PR)


IF WE LYNCH DEATH/LOL

and we mislynch and they kill me
the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 1 people (100% chance to find wolf)

and we mislynch and they kill one citizen claim
the next day
Citizen claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf)
PR claims 2 people (50% chance to find wolf but then I know exactly who the wolf is so it becomes me vs the other PR)

we lynch successfully

the next day
Citizen claims 3 people (33% chance to find wolf)
PR claims are confirmed.


Which of the scenario is beneficial to town, SKIP or we LYNCH

[ikarusdk]

Whether or I die or not tonight, I think we need to lynch death or lol.

[Mizery]

Ikarus if we miskill there is no tomorrow, wolves win, lol

[ikarusdk]

Ikarus if we miskill there is no tomorrow, wolves win, lol

oh fuck me. After all that. I did not think about that. Time to take a break lol

[ikarusdk]

PLS disregard my last post

sad face

[ikarusdk]

Now i sound wolfy af because i pushed for lynch that could result in wolves winning

[deathworlds]

Now i sound wolfy af because i pushed for lynch that could result in wolves winning

no, so sound newish to the game, and that's alright

[deathworlds]

what's super goofy is somewhere, somehow, people started conflating the investigator as an alignment cop, of which it is not, it's a role cop.

[deathworlds]

no, so sound newish to the game, and that's alright

no you sound*

[Wiml]

I'm usually very sceptical of F5 crossvotes being w/w (especially after losing champs finals F5 with a correct wolf team to a bus and some heavy AtE) but in this case I think it's hard to justify this cross being w/w.

If Death and Deb were w/w then the setup would have only 2 town power roles - a Chemist and a Bartender. That would mean one of our PR slots was a VT and one of our PR slots was a useless role so we would only have one "real" town power role.

I think this is pretty unlikely and I also think two wolves in MM/ikarus/Miz is pretty unlikely as well.

So this is almost never a bussing scenario.

[Wiml]

I'm usually very sceptical of F5 crossvotes being w/w (especially after losing champs finals F5 with a correct wolf team to a bus and some heavy AtE) but in this case I think it's hard to justify this cross being w/w.

If Death and Deb were w/w then the setup would have only 2 town power roles - a Chemist and a Bartender. That would mean one of our PR slots was a VT and one of our PR slots was a useless role so we would only have one "real" town power role.

I think this is pretty unlikely and I also think two wolves in MM/ikarus/Miz is pretty unlikely as well.

So this is almost never a bussing scenario.

Ignore this, I got confused as I was thinking about them being t/t as I also don't think that's true.

Partially for the bolded reason and partially because they soft-counterclaim each other with their roles even ignoring Death's result.

If they're t/t then the team would need to be ikarus + either Miz or MM as ikarus is confirmed wolf in those worlds as a 4th PR claim.

[Wiml]

Going to be posting a lot of IIoA still, my actual thoughts from now will be in my will if I die or posted D5 if I'm alive.

[Wiml]

what's super goofy is somewhere, somehow, people started conflating the investigator as an alignment cop, of which it is not, it's a role cop.

If you scan a VT claim and get VT they're scanned town.

If you scan a VT claim and get not VT they're scanned mafia.

In this setup, smart use of an investigator has it function as an alignment cop.

[Wiml]

@ikarusdk I don't think you answered my question from before.

Varcron soft-counterclaimed you in their role claim yesterday when they said they were a useless town PR. Why did you townread Varcron for their claim given that you yourself are a useless town PR, didn't it strike you as odd that there would be multiple?

[Wiml]

I don't see a reason why Varcron would lie about it tbh.

From D1 straight after Varcron claimed.

Ika, there's a reason in your role card if you're town.

[ikarusdk]

@ikarusdk I don't think you answered my question from before.

Varcron soft-counterclaimed you in their role claim yesterday when they said they were a useless town PR. Why did you townread Varcron for their claim given that you yourself are a useless town PR, didn't it strike you as odd that there would be multiple?

Because we have three town PR roles, and since I know mine is detrimental, when Varcron claimed his role as similar to mine, I did not think it was that weird. As mine is an utility/deception role, I guessed his one would be either a killing or another deception.

Also I thought he could be a citizen pretending yo be a PR to draw heat.

Either case, I townread him

Also I townread him since day 1

[ikarusdk]

Disregard last sentence, I was writing and editing on the phone and that last one is what I had originally

[Wiml]

Doubtful we have a setup with a town investigator and town bartender and no mafia investigator/scout/tracker.

If Death/ikarus are t/t then the mafia team power roles are probably one <framer or bartender> or and one <tracker or scout or investigator>.

If Death is town and ikarus mafia I'd expect Deb to be the likely mafia investigative role and ikarus to be the bartender.

So it is worth noting that if Deb is a wolf and Death is town then if Deb flipped and has a role that isn't framer or bartender then the remaining mafia member is the one capable of messing up Death's results and must be exactly a mafia bartender.

At which point the explicit existence of a mafia-aligned bartender in a game with one player claiming town bartender is hard to ignore and ikarus should be looked at carefully.

Tl;dr Wolf-Deb flipping not tailor/Bartender implies a mafia bartender exists and implicates ikarus. Keep in mind if I'm dead.

[Wiml]

Because we have three town PR roles, and since I know mine is detrimental, when Varcron claimed his role as similar to mine, I did not think it was that weird. As mine is an utility/deception role, I guessed his one would be either a killing or another deception.

Also I thought he could be a citizen pretending yo be a PR to draw heat.

Either case, I townread him

Also I townread him since day 1

Thanks, didn't you think it was weird that there were two different useless power roles though? You knew that the setup only had 2-3 power roles at the time so did the thought genuinely never come to mind that it was very difficult to fit both your role and their expected one in this setup?

I would expect almost anybody as town in your position to have at least some doubts internally about Varcron's claim, I'm surprised you seem to have none at all.

[Wiml]

Doubtful we have a setup with a town investigator and town bartender and no mafia investigator/scout/tracker.

If Death/ikarus are t/t then the mafia team power roles are probably one <framer or bartender> or and one <tracker or scout or investigator>.

If Death is town and ikarus mafia I'd expect Deb to be the likely mafia investigative role and ikarus to be the bartender.

So it is worth noting that if Deb is a wolf and Death is town then if Deb flipped and has a role that isn't framer or bartender then the remaining mafia member is the one capable of messing up Death's results and must be exactly a mafia bartender.

At which point the explicit existence of a mafia-aligned bartender in a game with one player claiming town bartender is hard to ignore and ikarus should be looked at carefully.

Tl;dr Wolf-Deb flipping not tailor/Bartender implies a mafia bartender exists and implicates ikarus. Keep in mind if I'm dead.

Want to add that if Deb did flip a wolf role with redirection abilities then it's also not implicating for ikarus as town-Death could have been redirected onto a mafia tailor.