S-FM 316 : The Fooling Party

[MartinGG99]

Spoiler : Quote wall :

Some thoughts that I have:

-----There's only 2 Triad Randoms, one of them is 100% Dark Magician. Leaving only one possible TPR among us to be capable of producing TPR feedback (if applicable) while still being triad

-----There's minimum 1 triad in Frostbyte/MattZed (because they're the only inferred or direct citizen claims, Yzb25 claimed vague TPR)

I'm assuming max 2 citizens in the setup for a few reasons:

1. The power-role count for scums and town generally should be equal based on past balancing advice on this forum
2. The setup has almost 40% of its players as scum roles; some places only advise AT MOST 30% scum ratio for the majority of setups
3. The double input of Busdrivers in the game, with 1 confirmed and the other not, seemed designed to cause counter-claims and guarantee a miselimination fmpov. (This could be debatable though)


And with #3 add an * as that may also mean double butler is less likely since #3 has already happened.

Continuing on with this (with me believing Unkown to be the butler)

assuming Renegade is lock-town as Locksmith

then last 3 scum (other than DM) are in this group of 4:

Frostbyte + MattZed + Naz + Helz

In this situation, Helz and Naz would be confirmed triad.

Good spot.

I forgot about one of my earlier assumptions, where there's max 1 triad in Mattzed / Frostbyte lol.

This line of reasoning implies Helz is scum. If he were town, then I'm town and you only have at most 2 scum in your scumpool. It would also imply Naz is scum because SOMEONE has to be a Cit.

Yeah, it DOES imply Helz is scum even if I don't like it.

Only way out of that is if there's Renegade as Moulder.....

Which means there's a possible Naz + Renegade + Mattzed scum world

but that's not possible since the triad only have 1 left-over Triad Random, which would plausibly be Naz and not Renegade.

Err I mean Helz not MattZed

If CA gets us to miseliminate one time, that's 4v4....

As long as we avoid a CA and/or miselimination, or one of the protectives (Me and Renegade) block just ONE town kill,

the we basically win if my reasoning has been correct so far.

[Unknown1234]

Spoiler : Quote wall :

If CA gets us to miseliminate one time, that's 4v4....

As long as we avoid a CA and/or miselimination, or one of the protectives (Me and Renegade) block just ONE town kill,

the we basically win if my reasoning has been correct so far.

This is another reason why I think lynching DM is the correct play.

Assuming Renegade isn't triad, if we choose to lynch someone else we are letting a witch have control of a TPR. In the event that DM did get binded, we might be in trouble regardless.

[Helz]

I'll simplify this.

I'm the locksmith.

@Renegade
Who did you target N1 and N2? What was your reasoning for those targets?

[Helz]

We've got time. We don't need a mass claim today and waiting is beneficial for town.

We have a short term roadmap for now, we should stick to that and deal with the rest when we get there. All you're doing is trying to nail down targets for triad nightkills right this second.

@FrostByte
The mass claim has already happened. If you confirm that you are not a Citizen it means we have 1 more absolutely confirmed town. That goes a long way to solving the game. I honestly dont see any reason for you not to simply claim between TPR or Citizen.

ya'know town random can still be citizen so I guess these arent really citizen cc's

Fair point. So Frost Cit claim =/= 1 scum between them but Frost TPR claim does = a second confirmation that he is Town.

[Helz]

What is the way around this. We don't have to eliminate DM, we could go for someone else. Very risky, but high reward if you have been bound to DM.

Its really alarming to see you pushing against the DM lynch yet again. I actually called you on a pattern of that last night.

This shouldn't be seen as a vote of confidence in DM. He very well could be traid now, so is a good candidate for tomorrow.

Oh come on.

GET THE SWITcHER WTF.

It is so abundantly clear that DW needs to go today that I am very suspicious of anyone not voting him.

We didn't hesitate to eliminate goofy Oberon when he claimed switcher. Now we have a second switcher claim. What's the deal?

No let's get DM, who may or may not be triad, let the switcher switch around and end up with another goofy scenario tomorrow.

Damn, just cuz you like the guy I mean, if you are town and not voting the switcher cuz he is friends with you that is really lame.

If a switcher is outed, it is automatically built in that they have to claim they were formally triad so they can buy enough time to switch out again.

Folks I have some lovely time shares I'd like you to take a look at.

Lmfao. DM is likely triad cuz DW said so?

That is the switchers only chance at survival, you realize that right?

I've got a gun to my head! IT WASn'T ME, IT WAS *POINTS FINGER* I SWEAR SHOOT HIM AND LET ME GO!

All I'm saying is, anything DW says today is heavily tainted with the desperation to survive another night and switch out.

Ya'll taking it as gospel. Prosperity gospel at least I hope.

I did particularly note how Renegade shifted from desperately lobbying to get off DM and hit DW into casting shade on the potential of DM being Triad. This feels like potential Triad priorities.

1- Lobby against potential teammates train by pushing their counter wagon
2- Cast shade on the argument condemning the potential team mate

It felt very focused and had a higher emotional tone to it than the majority of his other posts. Something we may want to observe as we go into tomorrow assuming we dont have a kind Vig to handle our little Dark Magician problem for us.

[Helz]

I think the alternative would be to yolo kill helz.

If helz is town, it confirms Matt and while we lose you.
If helz is triad, nothing of value was lost -- except you.

----------------------------------

BUTTTT now I'm having another problem. Yzb hasn't claimed his TPR, and he's green checked by unknown.

so we really have yet another TPR who hasnt told us what he is..

Or Frostbyte claims and Matt is potentially confirmed. I find this likely given how they are pushing against the logic that it confirms him.

I would also point out there is absolutely no reason to even consider lynching anyone other than DM unless Renegade did not lockdown DM.

[Frinckles]

Or Frostbyte claims and Matt is potentially confirmed. I find this likely given how they are pushing against the logic that it confirms him.

I would also point out there is absolutely no reason to even consider lynching anyone other than DM unless Renegade did not lockdown DM.

how would frostbyte claiming citizen potentially confirm matt?

[Unknown1234]

how would frostbyte claiming citizen potentially confirm matt?

Claiming non-citizen confirms Matt.

[FrostByte]

@FrostByte
The mass claim has already happened. If you confirm that you are not a Citizen it means we have 1 more absolutely confirmed town. That goes a long way to solving the game. I honestly dont see any reason for you not to simply claim between TPR or Citizen.

What difference does it make whether I claim today or after today? I legit don't see the benefit. We're still gonna have a fuckton of unverifiable TPR claims. Y'all are being impatient.

[Helz]

I'd be completely okay with reading what you wrote from literally anyone except you.

Helz is the only one who knows if he's telling the truth, unless you're scum because then you also know he's not telling the truth.

I'm keeping it as an open scenario. DM was pretty likely to be our lynch going into D3. CA would be saving DM and killing me, I think that's optimal.

@Frinckles
If you end up pushing a lynch on me through under the logic of the PoE which I created after I pushed you to take on leadership I am going to laugh my ass off. Thats not quite irony but it would be a pretty comical way to go

[Frinckles]

@Frinckles
If you end up pushing a lynch on me through under the logic of the PoE which I created after I pushed you to take on leadership I am going to laugh my ass off. Thats not quite irony but it would be a pretty comical way to go

I highly doubt we lynch anyone besides DM today. But if I am killed because of CA, Martin literally needs to stop us from losing the game at night.

[MartinGG99]

I highly doubt we lynch anyone besides DM today. But if I am killed because of CA, Martin literally needs to stop us from losing the game at night.

Yup, preety much lol

[Frinckles]

It's really so straightforward but clever.

The simplest thing that everyone in the game wants right now is DM dead. (Except DM)

But if the CA is smart, he could be winning this for the Triad.

[MartinGG99]

btw

@Awut

this has been a great game so far imo even if we find out we effectively lose by SoD4

I really enjoyed playing it

[MartinGG99]

btw

@Awut

this has been a great game so far imo even if we find out we effectively lose by SoD4

I really enjoyed playing it

Errr @Auwt

[Unknown1234]

I can see why people were excited to play this setup. It really seems to allow for a lot of unique situations to happen

[Frinckles]

btw

@Awut

this has been a great game so far imo even if we find out we effectively lose by SoD4

I really enjoyed playing it

(except that one part)

very fun game and it was nice to play with some new people and some old people and the new old ones too

[MartinGG99]

Dark Magician (2 [L-4]):
Unknown1234, MartinGG99
Frostbite (1 [L-5]):
Dark Magician

LOL there actually is a "Frostbite" out there

[Unknown1234]

@Frostbite

Defend yourself.

[yzb25]

Hi, going to bed now. The bloodlust has calmed down a lot, but just for my own peace of mind, I request there are no hammers while I sleep. I still have a lot of ideas I want to crunch that can only be done today.

Cheers.

(I'm also enjoying the setup a lot!)

[Helz]

how would frostbyte claiming citizen potentially confirm matt?

It wouldn't in any way. I said "I find this likely given how they are pushing against the logic that it confirms him" because there would be no reason to attack that logic unless Frostbyte was a TPR.

[Helz]

What difference does it make whether I claim today or after today? I legit don't see the benefit. We're still gonna have a fuckton of unverifiable TPR claims. Y'all are being impatient.

It gives us more information for today to solve the game. If we are not going to do that we may as well just hammer and skip the day.

On the other side it does not hurt at all. Literally every other player in the game has claimed so this is a "High reward low-zero risk" kind of play. All I can say is that I strongly encourage you to claim Cit/TPR even if you do not respect mechanical scum hunting as a technique.

[naz]

And Naz' list to check got much smaller.

Yzb when do you plan on claiming

I was hoping there would've been a cit thunderdome and I could clear/nab one but tee bee dee rn. I'm kinda speed reading atm

[MartinGG99]

I can see why people were excited to play this setup. It really seems to allow for a lot of unique situations to happen

We need to run it again at some point so @BananaCucho can play it, he seemed real excited for it when it was first being made

[MartinGG99]

We need to run it again at some point so @BananaCucho can play it, he seemed real excited for it when it was first being made

Maybe I'll host it so Auwt can play it as well if he wanted

[Helz]

I highly doubt we lynch anyone besides DM today. But if I am killed because of CA, Martin literally needs to stop us from losing the game at night.

Kinda. The game would just become inverted.

I have played a game where it happened before. Scum didnt know their team mates so the game just flipped from people claiming how they were town into people claiming that they were scum. If we walk into a 3v4 situation tomorrow the game would not end- it would simply be the town arguing that they are scum.

This game will continue until the last town or scum dies because scum are not informed.

[Frinckles]

Kinda. The game would just become inverted.

I have played a game where it happened before. Scum didnt know their team mates so the game just flipped from people claiming how they were town into people claiming that they were scum. If we walk into a 3v4 situation tomorrow the game would not end- it would simply be the town arguing that they are scum.

This game will continue until the last town or scum dies because scum are not informed.

Oh word. That sounds crazy as hell.

[Frinckles]

Alright I feel better about possibly dying. Everyone put on your scum faces.

[MattZed]

Let me run through CA candidates in order they appear on the D1 post:

Helz - could be CA
DM - I don't see why DW wouldn't give away that DM became CA; it's a very valuable role to yeet
Martin - could be CA who was hoping to use their ability to cover their own ass after the first BD died
FrostByte - could be CA
Frinckles - confirmed Scientist
yzb - COULD be, but then Unknown is also triad and we've all been misreading yzb
Unknown - could be CA
naz - can't be CA given her D2 lead
Renegade - COULD be, but then there's no Locksmith/Moulder, so Martin is a lying scum

I will admit this was not particularly helpful.

[Helz]

Oh word. That sounds crazy as hell.

Its fucking hilarious. Really weird feeling trying to make arguments as to how your evil instead of good.

I will also point out we don't need to worry about that unless Renegade didn't lockdown DH which is why I pinged him on it earlier.

[Unknown1234]

Let me run through CA candidates in order they appear on the D1 post:

Helz - could be CA
DM - I don't see why DW wouldn't give away that DM became CA; it's a very valuable role to yeet
Martin - could be CA who was hoping to use their ability to cover their own ass after the first BD died
FrostByte - could be CA
Frinckles - confirmed Scientist
yzb - COULD be, but then Unknown is also triad and we've all been misreading yzb
Unknown - could be CA
naz - can't be CA given her D2 lead
Renegade - COULD be, but then there's no Locksmith/Moulder, so Martin is a lying scum

I will admit this was not particularly helpful.

[MattZed]

So we're yeeting DM in a non-premature-day-ending way, right?

[Unknown1234]

I don't see a better option at this point.

[MartinGG99]

So we're yeeting DM in a non-premature-day-ending way, right?

Yup. Yzb25 has requested to have more time anyways and so I'm going to respect that.

Also I don't think Renegade and maybe some others were here to see me narrow down the pool of suspects that I made about an hour ago.

[MartinGG99]

that I made about an hour ago.

Correction: WE made.

Not to be ignorant of Matt and Unkown's contributions.

[Unknown1234]

I'm going to look into Helz' interactions with Matt tonight or tomorrow, not feeling well so ill probably take a nap. I would appreciate it if it's not ended before I get the chance to do that.

-unvote

[Helz]

I will also say, I didnt want to quote like 30 messages to point to it but a lot of that theory crafting on page 39 relied a few bad assumptions:

"There's minimum 1 triad in Frostbyte/MattZed (because they're the only inferred or direct citizen claims, Yzb25 claimed vague TPR)"
No, Frostbyte's statements suggest they are TPR and even if they claim Cit as Frinckles pointed out Citizen can roll as Town Random.

"assuming Renegade is lock-town as Locksmith"
There is no reason to assume this. Renegade should be considered no more town than Naz given their role is verified (unless Yzb or Frostbyte cc) but that role can be either alignment. For that matter Martin is not lock town, I simply didnt put him in the PoE because the way he CCed D1 looked very genuine.

This is mechanical hunting done wrong with a generous level of theory crafting in a game with no association tells. So ignore all that and feel free to say that points to me being scum.

I kinda feel like the conversation should have a bit more scum hunting. The mechanical side will only point us where to scum hunt as of right now.

[MattZed]

I'm heading off soon, but my final thoughts for a while:

Frinckles - basically mechanically confirmed
Renegade - boldly claimed Locksmith when it seemed there likely was one; doubt they're moulder, and to lie about locking entirely they would need to KNOW Martin is a fellow triad making up the story.
Yzb - Gut townread from his behavior, and if he's triad so is Unknown, which eliminates far too many more scummy suspects
Martin - the BD claim was bold if he's not BD. Not impossible, though. He even admits to targeting someone claimed to be locked down on the night of no kills

Unknown
Naz
Helz

FrostByte - really scummy during the end of the massclaim, but I'm open to a *small* number of possible explanations
Dark Magician

If this day last another 24 hours, I will ISO each of Helz, Naz, and Unknown.

[Renegade]

I'd be absolutely livid as DH if Renegademoulder blocked my kill.

I'm not molder. Why would I even act if I was?

[Renegade]

@Renegade
Who did you target N1 and N2? What was your reasoning for those targets?

Both N1 and N2 were Frinckle.

He seemed to be the obvious choice after Obe flipped BD. I wouldn't have locked him if Obe was indeed the switcher.

[MattZed]

I'm not molder. Why would I even act if I was?

I *could* see a moulder acting to make one of their fellow triad immune from detection/swap/kill. But Martin claims you would have protected one of Frinckles/DM, which doesn't fit this.

[Frinckles]

I'm not molder. Why would I even act if I was?

Understand that, I was just laughing at the suggestion.

[naz]

who teh fook do i watch tonight KJFKS:JFLSKJDFSLKDFJ im gonna be so upset if i pick the person who fucking dies again lol

[Renegade]

Its really alarming to see you pushing against the DM lynch yet again. I actually called you on a pattern of that last night.

It is so fucking obvious if the CA has a brain what is going to happen.

I'm fine to vote him, 100% ready to eliminate him. But when Frinckles dies I can't prot him from that.

[Renegade]

Ya'll spent a whole day yesterday telegraphing the main d3 lynch target without a drop of wine, maybe not the brightest move once you read the CA rolecard. @Helz

[Unknown1234]

Nvm, wasn't going to be able to fall asleep this early. Back to reading.

[Helz]

I *could* see a moulder acting to make one of their fellow triad immune from detection/swap/kill. But Martin claims you would have protected one of Frinckles/DM, which doesn't fit this.

It kinda does though. Frinckles was widly scum read D1. He was actually even scum read though a good chunk of D2 until he nabbed the Switcher.

Both N1 and N2 were Frinckle.

He seemed to be the obvious choice after Obe flipped BD. I wouldn't have locked him if Obe was indeed the switcher.

This makes me feel like you could be a molder.

N1 you targeted Frinckles who was widely scum read and N2 you chose not to cover DM even though it could cause us to walk into tomorrow with a 3v3 situation.

[Frinckles]

who teh fook do i watch tonight KJFKS:JFLSKJDFSLKDFJ im gonna be so upset if i pick the person who fucking dies again lol

you watch somebody who isn't Martin or Renegade (or me)

[Unknown1234]

If I look at it mechanically, this is what I see right now as possibilites for roles

DH: MattZed/FrostByte
CA: Helz
Triad Random: DM
Triad Random: Naz/Renegade

OR

DH: Helz
CA: MattZed/FrostByte
Triad Random: DM
Triad Random: Naz/Renegade

This is without reading into Helz' claim, but I don't feel like anyone else really fits into this spot.

[Helz]

Ya'll spent a whole day yesterday telegraphing the main d3 lynch target without a drop of wine, maybe not the brightest move once you read the CA rolecard. @Helz

And I still remember how you emotionally pushed against anyone who didn't vote Deathworlds. Then as soon as he was locked in as the lynch started casting shade on the case against the case on DM. Then last night you chose not to lock down DM.

Just saying. These things are a very bad look to me.