S-FM 350: Chaotic Executioner

[Renegade]

Interesting, Ren actually sounds more like a jester to me since they’re trying pretty hard to be cagey.

Buster could be jester but he’s trying pretty hard to look town.

That kind of aggression generally is more likely to either come from tunnelly town or scum.

How am I being cagey? LMAO. That actually made me laugh.

I'm trying to be helpful because I can't decide if Buster's behavior is a result of this being his first FM game or him being the chaos exe.

[Nancy Drew 39]

How am I being cagey? LMAO. That actually made me laugh.

I'm trying to be helpful because I can't decide if Buster's behavior is a result of this being his first FM game or him being the chaos exe.

I mean that your play isn’t obvtown or agenday if that makes sense.

Iow, you don’t seem to be clearly taking any stand.

What do you think about Buster, Lol and Awt?

I only have meta on one player here and unless he’s playing the scumgame of his life, he’s probably town and we seem to be mindmelding.

[ikarusdk]

I find your approach in the latter part quite interesting.

Initially, everyone starts with a 61.5% chance of being town, given the ratio of 8 town players out of 13 total players. With a day elimination, the ratio becomes 7/12, resulting in a 58.3% chance. If a night kill occurs, the ratio further shifts to 6/11, equating to a 54.5% chance. The key difference between this game and arcade is the ample time available to carefully analyze all that is being said and adjust the probabilities for each player accordingly. It's refreshing to witness your understanding that some players will adopt their own preferred playstyle, and there is no need to dwell excessively on it.

However, I struggle to comprehend the rationale behind assigning a 45% chance of being a Jester to certain players. Frankly, your reads thus far appear rather forced in my perspective.

I do not intend to be overly insistent, and I prefer to respect your personal space as I genuinely believe your contributions hold value in this game.

Regarding the EOD vote, whom would you prioritize eliminating: someone with a higher chance of being mafia or someone with a higher chance of being a Jester?

I do not mean they are 45% chance of being assigned one role or whatever.

What I meant is I am about half half on Buster being town or jester, but with slight chance of him being mafia. I am not talking about the entire game set up.

[ikarusdk]

I find your approach in the latter part quite interesting.

Initially, everyone starts with a 61.5% chance of being town, given the ratio of 8 town players out of 13 total players. With a day elimination, the ratio becomes 7/12, resulting in a 58.3% chance. If a night kill occurs, the ratio further shifts to 6/11, equating to a 54.5% chance. The key difference between this game and arcade is the ample time available to carefully analyze all that is being said and adjust the probabilities for each player accordingly. It's refreshing to witness your understanding that some players will adopt their own preferred playstyle, and there is no need to dwell excessively on it.

However, I struggle to comprehend the rationale behind assigning a 45% chance of being a Jester to certain players. Frankly, your reads thus far appear rather forced in my perspective.

I do not intend to be overly insistent, and I prefer to respect your personal space as I genuinely believe your contributions hold value in this game.

Regarding the EOD vote, whom would you prioritize eliminating: someone with a higher chance of being mafia or someone with a higher chance of being a Jester?

you are struggling to comprehend that concept because that is not what I at all intended to mean xD

[Nancy Drew 39]

I’d also like to get opinions on Frinkles as well but for now.

-vote BusterCannon

The push on Ren seems over the top to me.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I do not mean they are 45% chance of being assigned one role or whatever.

What I meant is I am about half half on Buster being town or jester, but with slight chance of him being mafia. I am not talking about the entire game set up.

Jester wants to be limmed but doesn’t want to make it obvious. What jester rarely does is try to play hardcore. So why you think he could be jester doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

[ikarusdk]

Jester wants to be limmed but doesn’t want to make it obvious. What jester rarely does is try to play hardcore. So why you think he could be jester doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

well you are voting him, aren't you?

[ikarusdk]

Also I've yet to gauge him as a player, so I can't speak of his playstyle at the moment.

But Occam's Razer.....

[Nancy Drew 39]

Also I've yet to gauge him as a player, so I can't speak of his playstyle at the moment.

But Occam's Razer.....

His push on you as a Ren buddy just because you asked for an explanation was even worse, imo.

[ikarusdk]

His push on you as a Ren buddy just because you asked for an explanation was even worse, imo.

I am trying to see it from his POV. What would make him say that? His pushes and refusal to explain his accusations is even weirder, because that is what FM is for. Making a case, and lynch mafia. If you are just saying ok this guy is scum, that's fine, but what are the reasons? If you see something that we do not, you gotta convince us. you know?

The easiest answer would be that he is straight out of arcade where a slightest hint of disagreeable statement can be regarded as suspicious, and anyone who tries to defend that is easily punished by the mob. I think that is what happened? That is the only explanation I can think of. If that is the case, he is town. He doubles down on his day 1 read so I don't know if he actually believes those, or

He is Chaos Exe, but I doubt this is the case because it's too obvious?

Slightly less obvious option might be the Jester. A player who is playing Jester wants to be eliminated but by making other players believe that lynching the Jester is their idea. You could probably go about this in many different ways, but an obvious jester would make outrageous comments and being stuborn about it without writing anything too AI. I mean, jesters are WIFOM central so I don't think I need to explain.

Him being a mafia pretending to be the jester/exe is an option there too. If he is a jester, town wouldn't really prioritize lynching him unless he actually becomes a liability. That is a pretty big smokescreen.



Anyway, the more and more I think about it, and read his posts, I feel Buster is actually more town than jester.

[BusterCannon]

Interesting, Ren actually sounds more like a jester to me since they’re trying pretty hard to be cagey.

Buster could be jester but he’s trying pretty hard to look town.

That kind of aggression generally is more likely to either come from tunnelly town or scum.

I'm not a jester.......if I was jester id just sit here and not say anything and hope that ppl lynch me cuz im quiet. I am telling you i am not jester. on god.

[BusterCannon]

Interesting, Ren actually sounds more like a jester to me since they’re trying pretty hard to be cagey.

Buster could be jester but he’s trying pretty hard to look town.

That kind of aggression generally is more likely to either come from tunnelly town or scum.

Are you defending Renegade? Maybe it's you, IkarusDK, and Renegade that is mafia. I know Renegade is at least sus

[BusterCannon]

I am trying to see it from his POV. What would make him say that? His pushes and refusal to explain his accusations is even weirder, because that is what FM is for. Making a case, and lynch mafia. If you are just saying ok this guy is scum, that's fine, but what are the reasons? If you see something that we do not, you gotta convince us. you know?

The easiest answer would be that he is straight out of arcade where a slightest hint of disagreeable statement can be regarded as suspicious, and anyone who tries to defend that is easily punished by the mob. I think that is what happened? That is the only explanation I can think of. If that is the case, he is town. He doubles down on his day 1 read so I don't know if he actually believes those, or

He is Chaos Exe, but I doubt this is the case because it's too obvious?

Slightly less obvious option might be the Jester. A player who is playing Jester wants to be eliminated but by making other players believe that lynching the Jester is their idea. You could probably go about this in many different ways, but an obvious jester would make outrageous comments and being stuborn about it without writing anything too AI. I mean, jesters are WIFOM central so I don't think I need to explain.

Him being a mafia pretending to be the jester/exe is an option there too. If he is a jester, town wouldn't really prioritize lynching him unless he actually becomes a liability. That is a pretty big smokescreen.



Anyway, the more and more I think about it, and read his posts, I feel Buster is actually more town than jester.

it is dumb to assume im town. i mean lol. how do you know im town? what are you, mafia? is that how you know im town?

[ikarusdk]

it is dumb to assume im town. i mean lol. how do you know im town? what are you, mafia? is that how you know im town?

I do not know you are town, that is why we are having this discussion.

[Stellaria]

Are you defending Renegade? Maybe it's you, IkarusDK, and Renegade that is mafia. I know Renegade is at least sus

So anybody that disagrees with you is scum? What is this, politics?

[BusterCannon]

So anybody that disagrees with you is scum? What is this, politics?

lol no not really. well sort of FM politics. Renegade is evil believe that.

[ikarusdk]

lol no not really. well sort of FM politics. Renegade is evil believe that.

yeah but you've yet to explain why.

You are clearly seeing something the rest of us cannot. So tell us?

[Auwt]

I find your approach in the latter part quite interesting.

Initially, everyone starts with a 61.5% chance of being town, given the ratio of 8 town players out of 13 total players. With a day elimination, the ratio becomes 7/12, resulting in a 58.3% chance. If a night kill occurs, the ratio further shifts to 6/11, equating to a 54.5% chance. The key difference between this game and arcade is the ample time available to carefully analyze all that is being said and adjust the probabilities for each player accordingly. It's refreshing to witness your understanding that some players will adopt their own preferred playstyle, and there is no need to dwell excessively on it.

However, I struggle to comprehend the rationale behind assigning a 45% chance of being a Jester to certain players. Frankly, your reads thus far appear rather forced in my perspective.

I do not intend to be overly insistent, and I prefer to respect your personal space as I genuinely believe your contributions hold value in this game.

Regarding the EOD vote, whom would you prioritize eliminating: someone with a higher chance of being mafia or someone with a higher chance of being a Jester?

At the outset of the game, when there are a total of 13 players, the chances of any individual player being a townsperson are determined by the ratio of town players to the overall player count. In this case, with 8 town players, the initial probability of any player being a townsperson is 61.5%. This means that, statistically speaking, there is a slightly higher likelihood for a player to belong to the town faction.


However, as the game progresses and players are eliminated during the daytime, the ratio of town players to the remaining total players changes. If, for instance, one player gets eliminated during the day, the new ratio becomes 7 town players out of 12 total players.
Consequently, the probability of an individual player being town-aligned decreases to 58.3%. This shift in probabilities reflects the fact that with one player eliminated, there is a relatively lower chance of any given player being on the town side.


Furthermore, the probabilities continue to evolve when nighttime actions, such as killings or other relevant events, take place. Let's say a player gets killed during the night phase, leaving 6 town players out of 11 remaining players. As a result, the likelihood of any individual player being a townsperson diminishes further to 54.5%.

One crucial aspect of this particular game, which sets it apart from an arcade or other forms of gameplay, is the availability of ample time to meticulously analyze and evaluate all the information being exchanged among the players. This extended duration allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play and affords the opportunity to adjust the probabilities associated with each player accordingly.


It is indeed refreshing to witness your recognition and understanding of the fact that different players may adopt distinct playstyles or strategies, and it is unnecessary to excessively dwell on such variations. By acknowledging this diversity and adapting one's analysis accordingly, a player can make more informed decisions and better assess the probabilities associated with each participant in the game.

-vote yoshida

[Auwt]

lol no not really. well sort of FM politics. Renegade is evil believe that.

Where does this come from?

[Nancy Drew 39]

lol no not really. well sort of FM politics. Renegade is evil believe that.

No I’m not defending Renegade but I’m not voting someone without a reason. So tell us why Ren is “evil”. Make you case and if it’s convincing, maybe I’ll change my vote.

I especially don’t understand why your suspicious of ikarus. Nothing about their posting is remotely pinging me.

[Stellaria]

Buster is pointing the finger as hurriedly as they can, perhaps in the effort that, eventually, the finger will be pointed right back. Pretty sure this is just a Jester.

[Frinckles]

Morning

[Gikkle]

I have become more confident in Ikaru town after reading the posts since I was last on

[Gikkle]

Care to offer an explanation?

the joke went over your head

[Gikkle]

@Renegade do you have any thoughts currently? My vote was a joke but I don't really like your reaction to pressure (even though buster's reasoning isn't great) so far.

[Frinckles]

I have become more confident in Ikaru town after reading the posts since I was last on

What did you like from them?

[Frinckles]

I'm not a jester.......if I was jester id just sit here and not say anything and hope that ppl lynch me cuz im quiet. I am telling you i am not jester. on god.

frfr no cap?

[Gikkle]

What did you like from them?

The discourse with Buster about me in particular (on page 7) felt very genuine to me
And also just his thoughts regarding buster on the top of page 6 and the rapid fire nature in which he posted felt like someone without TMI looking at someone and having a genuine reaction to buster's weird playstyle. Like the offhanded comment "do we have a vig" when talking about buster is the sort of thing that I see coming from town far more than a wolf, and especially compared to his KRC scum game it feels incredibly genuine.

[Gikkle]

Frinckles what are you thinking rn?

[Gikkle]

No I’m not defending Renegade but I’m not voting someone without a reason. So tell us why Ren is “evil”. Make you case and if it’s convincing, maybe I’ll change my vote.

I especially don’t understand why your suspicious of ikarus. Nothing about their posting is remotely pinging me.

This is a townie reaction

[Gikkle]

This is a townie reaction

Not like super duper townie but I think it's more townie than not

[Gikkle]

I mean that your play isn’t obvtown or agenday if that makes sense.

Iow, you don’t seem to be clearly taking any stand.

What do you think about Buster, Lol and Awt?

I only have meta on one player here and unless he’s playing the scumgame of his life, he’s probably town and we seem to be mindmelding.

Who do you have meta on?

[Gikkle]

At the outset of the game, when there are a total of 13 players, the chances of any individual player being a townsperson are determined by the ratio of town players to the overall player count. In this case, with 8 town players, the initial probability of any player being a townsperson is 61.5%. This means that, statistically speaking, there is a slightly higher likelihood for a player to belong to the town faction.


However, as the game progresses and players are eliminated during the daytime, the ratio of town players to the remaining total players changes. If, for instance, one player gets eliminated during the day, the new ratio becomes 7 town players out of 12 total players.
Consequently, the probability of an individual player being town-aligned decreases to 58.3%. This shift in probabilities reflects the fact that with one player eliminated, there is a relatively lower chance of any given player being on the town side.


Furthermore, the probabilities continue to evolve when nighttime actions, such as killings or other relevant events, take place. Let's say a player gets killed during the night phase, leaving 6 town players out of 11 remaining players. As a result, the likelihood of any individual player being a townsperson diminishes further to 54.5%.

One crucial aspect of this particular game, which sets it apart from an arcade or other forms of gameplay, is the availability of ample time to meticulously analyze and evaluate all the information being exchanged among the players. This extended duration allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play and affords the opportunity to adjust the probabilities associated with each player accordingly.


It is indeed refreshing to witness your recognition and understanding of the fact that different players may adopt distinct playstyles or strategies, and it is unnecessary to excessively dwell on such variations. By acknowledging this diversity and adapting one's analysis accordingly, a player can make more informed decisions and better assess the probabilities associated with each participant in the game.

-vote yoshida

I don't know why, but this entrance faintly smells bad. Maybe it's just because I found yoshida slightly townie and this post mocked him and voted him lol. Idk.

[Gikkle]

frfr no cap?

What did you like from them?

frinckles really just popped in to post these two things and then dipped

I've got my eye on you frinckles...

[Gikkle]

Whoever suggested sheriff is probably town though because I think mafia are probably super scared of that as a possibility (if in a town's hands, it certainly is a very powerful investigative), and since it wasn't really being talked about most mafia I think would feel like they could get away with just pushing for something else.

[Gikkle]

Current votes:

1. Stellaria
2. Gikkle - Marshall
3. Loldebite - Caroler
4. BusterCannon
5. ItalianoVD - Mentor
6. Nancy Drew 39 - Sheriff
7. Frinckles - Caroler
8. Auwt - Crier
9. MartinGG99 - Caroler
10. yoshida - Gunsmith
11. ikarusdk - Caroler
12. Renegade - Oracle
13. Clemensthelemon

oh it was nancy drew, who I already found townie from their most recent posts
well that makes me a little more confident but I was sorta hoping it was someone else so I could have more TRs

[Gikkle]

Not really liking Italiano

maybe it's just because they've said three times now that they don't like mechanics, but they definitely feel a bit weird

[Gikkle]

Anyway imma d1 read this

Italiano - town
Renegade - neutral

Bus - town
Stell - town
Loldebite - town

EZ

@Frinckles

Why are Loldebite and Italiano town?
And by "neutral" for Renegade, does that mean you think they are the exe/jester, or do you mean they are null?

[Gikkle]

I'm not a jester.......if I was jester id just sit here and not say anything and hope that ppl lynch me cuz im quiet. I am telling you i am not jester. on god.

I believe him

[Frinckles]

The discourse with Buster about me in particular (on page 7) felt very genuine to me
And also just his thoughts regarding buster on the top of page 6 and the rapid fire nature in which he posted felt like someone without TMI looking at someone and having a genuine reaction to buster's weird playstyle. Like the offhanded comment "do we have a vig" when talking about buster is the sort of thing that I see coming from town far more than a wolf, and especially compared to his KRC scum game it feels incredibly genuine.

off of tone, im inclined to agree but he doesn't necessarily need to be mafia to say those kind of things. we have two neutrals as well. who was he in krc?

[Gikkle]

off of tone, im inclined to agree but he doesn't necessarily need to be mafia to say those kind of things. we have two neutrals as well. who was he in krc?

True, not really too concerned about finding the neutrals rn though (well except to avoid lynching the jester, but for the sake of making town reads I'm not really thinking about possible neutrals)

He was ren panda in the KRC

[Frinckles]

frinckles really just popped in to post these two things and then dipped

I've got my eye on you frinckles...

Frinckles what are you thinking rn?

trying to respond to all of your posts lmao

@Frinckles

Why are Loldebite and Italiano town?
And by "neutral" for Renegade, does that mean you think they are the exe/jester, or do you mean they are null?

italiano sounds town to me and to a lesser extent, loldebite. but you should know i never post lists and that list was 90% fake. it's my ninja way

[Gikkle]

trying to respond to all of your posts lmao



italiano sounds town to me and to a lesser extent, loldebite. but you should know i never post lists and that list was 90% fake. it's my ninja way

Can you quote any specific instances where those two sounded townie? Because I haven't gotten that impression from them

[Frinckles]

True, not really too concerned about finding the neutrals rn though (well except to avoid lynching the jester, but for the sake of making town reads I'm not really thinking about possible neutrals)

He was ren panda in the KRC

oh. i think i had panda marked as town right before i died so my meta read would be crap. anyway, i don't think we need to hunt neutrals either but the weird role suggestions probably would come from those slots. i don't even think wolves would have the balls to suggest something like gunsmith. on top of that, like i said about KRC; wolves will shoot and lynch eachother left and right. i don't wanna deal with that.

[Frinckles]

Can you quote any specific instances where those two sounded townie? Because I haven't gotten that impression from them

well me and loldebite were shmoovin' on the role ideas.

I think mafia cares more about limiting options in this case, especially because Oracle/Mentor/Sheriff/Caroler are good picks for town. I'd say you are more suspicious here for your response towards Renegade than anything they said.

i was kind of more on the fence when italiano put this out because it's either a wolf projecting what wolves are thinking or legitimate concern about how they'd play. but im always thinking what wolves would be planning so i just marked them town. the mentor role vote was whack though. caroler is way better

[Frinckles]

oh yeah and Hollowkatt used a gundam wing pfp for a while (i think) so that's probably where that confusion came from

[Stellaria]

I believe him

It's not a hill that I plan to die on but what makes you so sure?

NAI tidbit, just finished my final final in college. It was my math final and Im p sure I just smoked it and got a 100%. I graduate on the 24th with two degrees hell yeah

[Loldebite]

What do you feel about Stellaria's proposal. Does it make sense? How would it work exactly?

I was good about it until the faking feedback part, I'm far too lazy for that.

I've never ever seen any game where everyone agrees on such a course anyway, so I don't expect we'd be able to do it regardless

[Loldebite]

Well...I kinda like it and I kinda don't.

Because I see pros and cons.

Pros:
-Real PRs can soft without actually being outed
-Town PRs will be better protected.

Cons:
-Might create too much confusion for town, I mean.....it would take alot of work and coordination to actually figure out the real claim vs fake claim and things could get lost in the chaos.
-Chaos Exe already knows who they are but town wouldn't know if they can trust any claim.

I don't know. That's how I feel about it atm.

I am so glad this is not a flipless game.

I don't like the edging nor the tone. You're now in my watch-what-you're-doing bucket

[Loldebite]

8. Auwt
4. BusterCannon
13. Clemensthelemon
7. Frinckles
2. Gikkle
11. ikarusdk

5. ItalianoVD

3. Loldebite
9. MartinGG99
6. Nancy Drew 39
12. Renegade
1. Stellaria
10. yoshida

@Loldebite @MartinGG99 @Nancy Drew 39 @Renegade @yoshida yall down to be in a squad together? i'll call it XYZ squad because we're the later half of the list alphabetically

Let's do it

Also yay XYZ, much City Hunter.