S-FM 348: Standoff - Page 21
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  1. ISO #1001

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    From a setup balance PoV Varcron is very likely to genuinely be a Poisoner/Chemist.

    I also think Varcron, regardless of role, very likely didn't submit any action due to the lack of a will.

    I don't think Varcron ever fakeclaims as VT. Especially because that would again mean that we only have 2 power roles and one of them would be totally useless (ikarus). If Varcron did fakeclaim for some reason though and it was proven to be the case, Death would almost certainly have to be town for setup balance reasons - I think this is very unlikely to be the case though.

    My theory is that Varcron didn't understand that Chemist is an extremely powerful role (possibly the single most powerful role on the list for the record), didn't understand what we meant when we said it was powerful and/or thought they would be redirected (you still shouldn't holster in that case but I get it) and chose to holster.

    I don't think Varcron was tailored. I think if Varcron was a weaker role and tailored then ikarus is almost always a wolf (and may be claiming Varcron's original role) but the setup is again really weak on the TPR side ESPECIALLY for mafia to have such a powerful role in Tailor and I think the way Varcron acted suited their flipped role (I was very concerned D1 that Varcron was chemist and outed but I didn't know for certain. Chemist does fit in this setup extremely well from a balance PoV though).

  2. ISO #1002

  3. ISO #1003

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by ikarusdk View Post
    I didn't try hint at my role at all. I was genuinely trying to do guesswork with what I had on day 1. I knew I could not use my night action at least in day 1 so even if I had a different role, I don't think I would've done anything different.

    As to answer your question about deb vs death.

    This is a hard one to answer but I will try.
    If deb was a snitch, that means we can take Varcron at face value, more or less, that he was indeed town chemist. This aligns with what Varcron was hinting at about his role. But this does not mean mafia wouldn't have a tailor.
    Because I am 100% town bartender from my POV, this means town PR set up is Snitch(investigative) chemist (killing) bartender (deception).

    If deb was a tailor as death claimed, that means Varcron is tailored from something but what could it be? Was he really a PR? Was he a citizen? If he was a citizen then there is another PR hiding in citizen claim and since there are 3 of you already, I doubt this was really the case because this means deb and death are w/w. I think this narrative is least likely at this stage. This means I think Varcron was really a town PR. But whatever his role was, he did claim the night action was bad for town and this means his role was eother killing or deception. Since I am already in deception category, I think he was a killing role, meaning there is NO tailor, or tailor changed Varcron to something he actually was.

    Both scenario results in town invest, killing and deception in my mind.


    Which is more likely, I do not know. I am sure there is something I am missing here and I am trying to find the breadcrumb but it is 2am and my mind is sleepy
    Yellow is just wrong : in that case we know nothing of the 2nd scum's role. In fact we can't even be sure of DW's role.

    Red is innacurate too : me being tailor doesn't mean I necessarily tailored Varcron.

  4. ISO #1004

  5. ISO #1005

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    So my tl;dr conclusion is that if a tailor exists they likely didn't use their action on Varcron last night.

    I think that makes it pretty likely that if Death is town, they were Bartended by the mafia last night and given a fake role (still think Deb and Death are exactly t/w though).
    Tbh I wonder how anyone arguing otherwise would explain me switching to DW yesterday

  6. ISO #1006

  7. ISO #1007

  8. ISO #1008

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    It's worth noting that we can verify ikarus' role if necessary by directing him to sabotage Death's scan.

    It would inform us that ikarus (or their wolf partner if mafia but this is much less likely) is genuinely a Bartender even if we don't know their alignment.

    Doubt this will be useful tbh but pointing out that there is a way for Death to verify ikarus' claim and not just the VTs.

  9. ISO #1009

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    It's worth noting that we can verify ikarus' role if necessary by directing him to sabotage Death's scan.

    It would inform us that ikarus (or their wolf partner if mafia but this is much less likely) is genuinely a Bartender even if we don't know their alignment.

    Doubt this will be useful tbh but pointing out that there is a way for Death to verify ikarus' claim and not just the VTs.
    For an example of what I mean we can say to ikarus "make Death's target show up as a town aligned armoursmith" and that verifies that ikarus isn't fakeclaiming a role.

    Not likely to be as useful as a VT scan but will consider it later

  10. ISO #1010

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Mech does somewhat suggest that Death/ikarus are unlikely to be t/t but not strongly enough that I'd consider it to be something worth acting on rn.

    But it would be weird for ikarus to be town without a mafia investigative role to block and impossible for Death to be town when there's a mafia investigative role unless the second mafia investigative role is specifically a Bartender.

    If ikarus/Death are town/town then mafia have similar or possibly completely mirrored town power roles to us (ignoring chemist).

    Maybe town having Invest/Bartender/Chemist and mafia having Invest/Bartender to Mirror town is the gimmick of this setup. I could see that.

  11. ISO #1011

  12. ISO #1012

  13. ISO #1013

  14. ISO #1014

  15. ISO #1015

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by ikarusdk View Post
    I didn't try hint at my role at all. I was genuinely trying to do guesswork with what I had on day 1. I knew I could not use my night action at least in day 1 so even if I had a different role, I don't think I would've done anything different.

    As to answer your question about deb vs death.

    This is a hard one to answer but I will try.
    If deb was a snitch, that means we can take Varcron at face value, more or less, that he was indeed town chemist. This aligns with what Varcron was hinting at about his role. But this does not mean mafia wouldn't have a tailor.
    Because I am 100% town bartender from my POV, this means town PR set up is Snitch(investigative) chemist (killing) bartender (deception).

    If deb was a tailor as death claimed, that means Varcron is tailored from something but what could it be? Was he really a PR? Was he a citizen? If he was a citizen then there is another PR hiding in citizen claim and since there are 3 of you already, I doubt this was really the case because this means deb and death are w/w. I think this narrative is least likely at this stage. This means I think Varcron was really a town PR. But whatever his role was, he did claim the night action was bad for town and this means his role was eother killing or deception. Since I am already in deception category, I think he was a killing role, meaning there is NO tailor, or tailor changed Varcron to something he actually was.

    Both scenario results in town invest, killing and deception in my mind.


    Which is more likely, I do not know. I am sure there is something I am missing here and I am trying to find the breadcrumb but it is 2am and my mind is sleepy
    Thanks.

    Thoughts on the possibility that if you're town and Death is town, there could be a second mafia bartender instead of a tailor that messed with Death's results?

    I'm considering the possibility of a setup where the mafia have an almost mirrored set of roles to us (invest/bartend/chemist town vs invest/bartend mafia) and this is basically the only possible setup where you and Death can be t/t and there is a mafia role that your night action could be used on (otherwise your role is legitimately useless instead of having a tiny purpose in the setup which I find pretty unlikely? Why would you get a role as town if the only purpose is to hurt town?).

  16. ISO #1016

  17. ISO #1017

  18. ISO #1018

  19. ISO #1019

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Deb is the focus on associative / partnership reads something you do a lot or something new to this game?
    Define "do a lot"... It's not my first time trying myself at it, pretty sure I tried that right off the gates.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Deb you can tag people by just typing @username fyi
    Does that actually work ? @Loldebite

  20. ISO #1020

  21. ISO #1021

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Define "do a lot"... It's not my first time trying myself at it, pretty sure I tried that right off the gates.



    Does that actually work ? @Loldebite
    Do a lot as in rely significantly on it for your solving like you have this game.

    You left it in your will for example instead of more conventional attempts to solve.

  22. ISO #1022

  23. ISO #1023

  24. ISO #1024

  25. ISO #1025

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Wait it's what do you mean more conventional ? Is it not ?
    It's less conventional than just going "I think so and so is mafia because they made this scummy post" directly instead of comparing people.

    It's unusual for a player to focus so strongly on partnership reads to the degree they don't include any other types of normal no nonsense reads in their will.

    So I'm interested in if that's typical for you to solve like this and also why you chose to forego putting anything else in there besides partnership reads, did you not have any normal direct reads you wanted to leave behind?

  26. ISO #1026

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    It's less conventional than just going "I think so and so is mafia because they made this scummy post" directly instead of comparing people.

    It's unusual for a player to focus so strongly on partnership reads to the degree they don't include any other types of normal no nonsense reads in their will.

    So I'm interested in if that's typical for you to solve like this and also why you chose to forego putting anything else in there besides partnership reads, did you not have any normal direct reads you wanted to leave behind?
    Mh yeah actually that's the method that makes the most sense to me, for some reason. I usually list any and all individual tells/feels I find/get in my readslist anyway, I didn't have that on hand when I wrote my LW before going to bed. I had planned to revisit it & include an up to date readslist (notably because your interaction with misery changed a lot of stuff, not to mention the flip, obviously) but I got lazy...

  27. ISO #1027

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Mh yeah actually that's the method that makes the most sense to me, for some reason. I usually list any and all individual tells/feels I find/get in my readslist anyway, I didn't have that on hand when I wrote my LW before going to bed. I had planned to revisit it & include an up to date readslist (notably because your interaction with misery changed a lot of stuff, not to mention the flip, obviously) but I got lazy...
    Yeah, that's fine.

    Mind talking about the things that you would have updated it with in more detail? The me/Miz interactions for example and stuff the flip changed for you.

  28. ISO #1028

  29. ISO #1029

  30. ISO #1030

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    @Loldebite @ikarusdk [and MM pinged in a later post]

    Go over everything you've done on D1 this game. I want your thoughts in detail at every point. I want you to tell me stuff that you never posted, the things going through your head, the things that a wolf wouldn't think but you as a villager absolutely would. Tell me about your overall strategy - what did you focus on, was there anything your role did to affect the way you thought, how were you planning to find mafia and win this game? What about confidence - were there times you thought the game was easy or times you thought we were screwed? How did your reads change over the course of the game and why?

    Just thoughts. Give me a lot of thoughts you thought that a mafia member wouldn't think but you definitely did think.

    (I suggest ISOing yourself and going through it)

    This is a very time-demanding question so if it's taking up a lot of your time I'm happy for you to stop part way through the Day as long as you've answered a reasonable bit or take a long time to answer this question.

    You can skip it if you really want to but this is a proven very effective way to sort people's alignments.
    I came in here with the intent to ISO others, but I actually kinda like that idea. I've never seen it happen, but it cannot hurt to go through it, especially since we have time. It can only work if basically everyone does it, though, and I'm particularly interested in @Mizery doing it because:
    - if I'm right and she's just scum, it should become obvious and assuming we lynch correctly among deathworlds/debbie, we win
    - if I'm wrong and she's actually town, it should also become obvious that my read of them, which is largely based on dissonances in their play, is wrong, and then we move on

    I'll get to it myself soonish
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  31. ISO #1031

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    I came in here with the intent to ISO others, but I actually kinda like that idea. I've never seen it happen, but it cannot hurt to go through it, especially since we have time. It can only work if basically everyone does it, though, and I'm particularly interested in @Mizery doing it because:
    - if I'm right and she's just scum, it should become obvious and assuming we lynch correctly among deathworlds/debbie, we win
    - if I'm wrong and she's actually town, it should also become obvious that my read of them, which is largely based on dissonances in their play, is wrong, and then we move on

    I'll get to it myself soonish
    Great!

    This is a slightly modified version of a technique a veteran player from my home community known for his extreme read accuracy suggested to me to use it Champs Finals back when I played it Champs for late game scenarios. I used it in that game and it was in large part responsible for me being able to get a wolf eliminated in F5 (and the wolf that ended up winning Champs that year no less) and correctly locking in another scumread player as town so I have a lot of faith that it can be a very effective method for finding people's alignments when done right.

  32. ISO #1032

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Marshmallow Marshall

    MM's vote is convenient for him as that's the slot that scumreads him the most, he says that he's even more confident in his scum read of mizery if PoD flips scum (#329) but mostly votes him because of OMGUS it seems ? Feel free to clarify your thought process at EoD. I'd tag you if I knew any way other than going on your profile and manually copying your ID, something I CBA doing rn lol.
    EXCUSE ME? The one being OMGUS'd wasn't PoD, but ME lmao. His only reason to vote me was that I pressured him to give reads based on something that wasn't boiling down to "they suspect me". I clearly remember having to ask him three times what his case against you was, even putting color and getting the quotes I wanted him to address, and he just didn't, which striked me as a token of dishonesty from him lol. Had he not been lynched, today would probably have been 90 % about him anyway. You may go back in my ISO yourself if you so desire, and it's something I'll probably cover myself in the self-ISO thing.

    (also you can just put @ before my exact name to mention me lmao, I used to do the same as you with the mention tag before I realized it was really just that simple)
    @Loldebite
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  33. ISO #1033

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Great!

    This is a slightly modified version of a technique a veteran player from my home community known for his extreme read accuracy suggested to me to use it Champs Finals back when I played it Champs for late game scenarios. I used it in that game and it was in large part responsible for me being able to get a wolf eliminated in F5 (and the wolf that ended up winning Champs that year no less) and correctly locking in another scumread player as town so I have a lot of faith that it can be a very effective method for finding people's alignments when done right.
    if it works I'm stealing it :P
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  34. ISO #1034

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    if it works I'm stealing it :P
    I'm happy to discuss my experiences with it in more detail postgame if you're interested! Don't want to go into too much detail now as I don't want to be telling the wolves everything they could be doing to try to game the system.

  35. ISO #1035

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    I'm happy to discuss my experiences with it in more detail postgame if you're interested! Don't want to go into too much detail now as I don't want to be telling the wolves everything they could be doing to try to game the system.
    Alright ^^ definetly interesting

    Also, I'm currently working on that post; I'm not sure I have time to finish it before I have to go, so it might take a little while before it's out and I say anything, but it should definetly be done in the next hours
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  36. ISO #1036

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Alright ^^ definetly interesting

    Also, I'm currently working on that post; I'm not sure I have time to finish it before I have to go, so it might take a little while before it's out and I say anything, but it should definetly be done in the next hours
    Totally fine, take as much time as you need but I appreciate you getting it done.

  37. ISO #1037

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Here's my answer to your request, Vittæ. I omitted fluff/joke posts when I felt there was nothing more than fluff/jokes.

    WARNING : This is a VERY big spoiler !

    Spoiler : Post by post commentary :
    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Hey there ! I'm kinda mad at myself for missing SoD but I'll make up for it soon.
    Gotta work a bit before I catch up, tho.
    I was originally planning to be there at SoD but I was trying a new game and well time flew, when I got out of it it was 2 am already (about the hour I had planned to get to sleep after SoD) and I couldn't reasonably get into the game without forfeiting sleep entirely, so I was kinda mad at myself.

    I had planned that my boss would ask some specific kind of work that morning so I expected not to be available, but it turns out that day was relatively quiet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Great time to note that lynching is NOT mandatory, I assume this is achieved by voting "skip" ?
    Thought it was important to mention that skipping was allowed because it usually isn't here AFAIK, and it was a good opportunity to ask how to do so in the process.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    I might've misread/misunderstood but I'm quite sure citizen is one of the very few role that scum CANNOT get
    Yeah I had completely misunderstood his point there, I thought for some reason he was implying that the Hidden Loyalist could roll Citizen too, I guess reading is hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Which brings me to my point : should we make citizens claim to clear out PoE ? I know, I know, it is lame and cringe...
    So, should we be doing it ?
    Ah yes, that could actually be considered breadcrumbing I guess, as will my "IDC if all TPR die" stance later on. Idea was that all citizen will claim citizen immediately but scum would have to decide on a stance right out of the gate which might've put them in a difficult position.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    On another note, since you (Vittæ) and I seem to be the only ones online and active now that mizery's gone, feel free to engage me about whatever.

    To help jumpstart that, here's a rushed fresh out of bed readslist :

    cute people (T leaning)

    Ikarusdk (seems genuinely eager to engage in actual discussion to me or much better at pretending than I'd expect, and also cute posts)
    Varcron (Pretty good feeling about the interaction with deathworlds, above vittae for now because I know them a very tiny bit better)
    Vittae (Good feeling about the slot, I sense cute vibes. Yeah that might be irrational, sue me)

    boringly ordinary (odds are that idk how to read these but I'll pretend for now)

    PoD (Not much to think about but I get the tiniest of cute vibes and )
    deathworlds (I agree that the mech is NAI, and nothing felt especially good or especially bad)
    mizery (I don't believe in judging off openings anyway, reads list is nice but honestly I'm pretty sure she would've done as much as any alignment)

    uglies (S leaning)

    MM (I very much dislike their last post to date. Sorting roles in utility buckets alone is worth doing, had I done that in my first game ever I would've seen you were scum much faster
    the post in question :
    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Lol saying you know me a tad bit is quite generous imo, considering how I only really know you from the archive and from the fact you replaced out from some game years ago xD. Glad to see you existing among us, though! [...]

    Perhaps there is something I am missing (might have to do with the fact I should sleep lol), but apart from the "don't use janitor abilities and the like if you're town" message, which is probably necessary and relatively useful, this whole post seems a little... empty, in spite of its size. Where do you want to lead us with this? I feel like we should wait until we have something before going into setup speculation like this, considering it's straight up page 1.
    Pink part seemed a bit disdainful/confrontational/contrarian for my taste, I couldn't help but read it kind of like "yeah, uh no bruh wtf u saying" which as a first interaction ever felt a bit much.

    Red orange part felt exceedingly hypocritical considering we were on the first page of D1, which is most often full of jokes, fluff and otherwise unrelated garbage and that MM has partaken in some of that aspect (I DEMAND HYPE etc...). The both of these combined made me very wary of MM for the majority of D1.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Yes.

    Actually, do scum have a day chat too ? If they do the idea crumbles, probably.
    I assume scum would have to have at least one of theirs fakeclaim citizen, if they do play it accurately we don't gain much except an extra WIFOM layer as a freebie. Regardless, we might gain something and as such it's worth discussing.
    If you're afraid about town power roles getting outted & gutted, I wouldn't be. Citizens have the majority over scum, so we don't actually need any PR to win, provided we're good enough. That is assuming no extra NKP.
    In some games I've played before, scum only had a night chat, hence my assumption that they did not. Pink part in my mind was "If you're afraid about TPR getting gutted at night, I'm not. In fact I'd be glad !" but I obviously couldn't say that without claiming. I figured that because of my role being investigative, we probably had another not-so-useful role (belief strengthened by varcron's claim at the time), which meant that at worst in my mind we had 1 other good TPR and myself, so 66% chance for scum to target a useless TPR if they so chose. So yeah I really wasn't scared at all. I didn't expect Varcron to make that claim as a killing role.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    I don't often assume someone is wrong when playing mafia (which admittedly has gotten me inaccurately turbo nitro hard tunneling on... some of this forum's least bright members). In fact, off the top of my head I can't recall a single time I've make that assumption. I guess I think assuming people are wrong is... wrong
    Another thought in the same vein that crossed my mind recently, when reading MM's D2 posts is a twist on a latin proverb, Being wrong once happens. Persevering in being wrong is probably just being scum.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Shit.

    [insert very long specualtion/calculations]

    Well this is disapointing.
    What I didn't dive into but thought about here is that IMO scum never ever double claims cit as on top of being potentially harder than claiming their real role and being able to use that information to suit their goals that might let town create a towncore of PRs which sounds desastrous for scum, but it seemed not worth investigating further anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Well I guess we could go for a 37.5% chance to lynch scum by randoming PRs !
    Lol.

    Mh actually I wonder if scum both claiming PR is a good idea, I'm starting to think that there is no good option for scum if the setup has only 2 TPRs.
    Ah, well I did mention it after all lol.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Meh, not really. I wouldn't dare say I have a lot of experience in anything FM related tbh but I've played a fair few games with MM, definitely more than anyone else in here. We also interact a fair amount outside of FM, which is where the feeling of familiarity comes from.

    I would say that, scum MM is most comfortable in soft powerwolfing position. He doesn't really want to be townleader or be in any kind of spotlight but he does enjoy having a position from which what he says is paid attention to, and from that place he seeds in pro-wolf reasonable doubt (which notably boils down to making excuses from scummy things that scum do). But take this with a grain of salt as, now that I think about it, that seems based off of mostly a single game lol
    Someone i don't remember who reacted to that by saying that to them MM is definitely a powerwolfer. I don't think I've seen it first hand although it is true that they were close in OUaTitW, my first game. I still think that wasn't quite powerwolfing because he stick to a relatively neutral or passive stance and never vehement or really leading IMO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post

    Lol, you've nicknamed me Deb, too, or have you simply heard it elsewhere (perhaps even in the thread lol) ?

    Anyway, not so glad to see that I'm still being read as scum-leaning tho

    Here's my latest game to date
    And here's the one before that
    And FTR that one was my first FM ever. I've played most games that took place in between, if you wanna have an extensive look.

    Oh and sorry - I should've asked first but I was too happy to have the opportunity - are you cool with me spelling your name Vittæ ?
    Yeah IIRC I was being scumread by most in my first couple games, one of said cost us the victory because a fellow town voted me alongside mafia despite me being mechanically confirmed. That game did numbers on me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    This cracked me up ngl
    Yeah I recall laughing at PoD's post, tbh at very first it felt very genuinely annoyed in a "idc what you think I'm not town reading that shit" way, which I liked. Retrospectively, I should've trusted that feeling, but at the time I was scared of the player, I must say.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Not knowing them I can't tell if that's just D1 banter or if there's something going on.

    I gotta say I don't really agree with or understand the decision that he's the best slot to pressure either, especially. Especially considering how you voted them first thing in the morning, then explained why after catching up and then posted a readslist. Would you mind explaining your rationale for the vote ?

    On the other hand PoD's reaction is quite surprising too, but I get the feel that this is a gambit of sorts or something
    After a second look it felt a bit too annoyed and hence my wondering. Retrospectively I assume the abrasive stance was intentional to cause a chasm. If that's the case, well done and thank you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    [PoD] very clearly [has] not posted more content, in fact they've made their refusal to comply - for now - quite clear. Interesting !
    Yeah, at that moment PoD reminded me a lot of Renegade, which I dislike playing with because it seems to me that he's simply refusing to discuss his thoughts and that annoys me a LOT. Kind of a MUCH SOFTER version of a player I met in Deck Mafia - Hyperion I think it is ? - who simply refuses to talk and reacts with gifs of mew from pokemon exclusively. I think that impression has massively shaped my view of PoD, probably wrongly so.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Let's call it the Gambit of the Renegade : refusing to explain and avoid telling anyone what you think. Because that's what I recall renegade (not) doing

    Maybe gambit isn't the proper term ?

    Yeah well I don't know for you but I have little use of emotions that can be faked as easily as that.

    Meh, I guess that post about ikarus probably isn't that easy to fake, though. Still, I don't know what do you with it so it doesn't add to my "content" pile.
    What to do with it* UGH

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Lying is always scummy.

    I SOMEHOW missed that sentence, fuck me must I look idiotic.
    Didn't pay it much attention back then but retrospectively MM is very in line with his post dissing PoD and DW that I had hated here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    All the following is [content]:
    [multiple quotes from PoD]

    And this is not even cherry picking your posts, it's just that all the interesting posts at the end of p4 are yours
    I really liked all those 4 posts when I first read them, and they had struck me as much more impactful/to the point than the first few couple (except the one about ikarus).

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Yeah, fuck activity reading.
    On that note : yes, I might appear online about 13h per days or more. I (almost) always have a couple tabs open with the game, that I check from time to time. I'm not actually all that active. Only reason I'm mentioning it is because it has been raised already and well, yeah, I probably should tell you about it while I can, just to clarify.
    Seriously, tho : fuck activity reading.
    JuSt UsE iNvIsIbLe MoDe
    No. Fuck you too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    If you think I spare games I signup for any time before it's actually started, you're off the wrong piste.
    There's a reason I can't come up with roles for KRCs, and it's because I don't do that.

    Yeah, 4 minutes, unless I was already working on it in that last post ? But I would've said so... mhhh

    [quote me doing just that]

    Oh. Oopsie !
    Yeah I was a bit mad there, I literally told so to be extra clear and avoid these kinds of misunderstanding and yet... Frustrating. I got over it quickly, tho. Unlike... But I shan't spoil.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Is this a joke ? Cherry on top is that posting a readslist with reads like that is one of the reason I'm scumread by other people, apparently.

    Overall, tho, I do like that readslist. I'd probably put MM lower and vittæ higher. Let's see what becomes of it once I've caught up.
    This was replying to varcron's readslist where I was at the far end saying "Loldebite for now is my top scum read, but something is off with them. Everything they have said so far in my eyes has in some capacity been scummy, and I can't place my finger on why yet, however this read will likely develop in the future." and that felt so gratuitous I was baffled. I had just woke up so seeing a "scum because shrug" kinda tilted me. Like I still can't fathom that "I can't place my finger on why yet... " Sure, about a few posts about the ENTIRETY of it ??

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Kay so let me get this straight.
    You're quite convinced I'm scum and so does literally everyone else. My only contribution was a mechs talk where I literally showed that mass claiming on d1 sucked ass. And you wanna do just that ? Wtf ?
    This is just episode 420 or something of me having no fucking clue what mizery's doing. I dislike her, I find her very hard to read

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    FOR FUCKS SAKE CAN YOU READ THE GAME BEFORE POSTING STUPID SHIT ?

    My LITERAL LAST POST was answering that question already
    AH YES ! My reaction to MM's stupid post reusing ika's stupid argument that I wrote a wall in 4 minutes... When I could understand it from ika's perspective where he thought he figured out something and jumped on the gun, just like I did with vittæ, someone exterior to the argument SHOULD'VE been critical of the premise and challenged it by paying attention to the context. Obviously MM hadn't done that or he would've read the post just before and found me announcing the wall. Because I was already wary of MM, as mentioned, this made me pretty angry as it felt so puny and small, almost pathetic. This strenghtened my suspicions of MM.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    This is EXACTLY the kind of plausible shit spreading that you do as scum lol
    Yeah, it felt just like that first post about PoD & DW, dissing me without giving the diss the attention it warrants.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Can't tell if having an aneurysm or trolling

    Probably a bad sign
    Reply to mizery's "we're already winnin'" comment. It really didn't feel like it at the time, at least from my POV...

    I figured it was mizery trolling but chose to answer anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Tssk, guess you can read after all, woohoo !

    That push looks founded on bad reasons, PoD's interaction with me was much more than OMGSUS and clearly as defensive as you claim, cuz I wasn't pushing them nor even considering it.
    From my POV PoD contributed in both greater quality and greater quantity than say, Mizery. What do you think of that slot, quite comfy at 0 votes ?
    Reacting to MM realizing his 'mistake' and pushing PoD. Pod's vote on me was nowhere near OMGUS, I still don't know where that's coming from.
    Retrospectively it looks planned, they had already discreetly dissed PoD and now they build on it, justifying that they're that suspicious for basically no reason because of an early "bad feeling". I feel like I was giving MM a lot of slack actually considering how much of what they've said/done I disliked. Too much respect/assumed goodwill perhaps ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Well, uh, thought your read on me had decayed already but I read back and I've no clue why I thought that.

    Yeah no, something's off.

    There's no way you've seen me at the far end of everyone's readslist and was content with putting me in the TR range for a mere mech post all the while saying "it ain't much, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯". Especially when your bottom read is based solely on another mech post and honestly the differences are not that great. Definitely not great enough that you can wave your hand and say "Nah all those 6 people are wrong, I can feel it !".
    Reacting to MM's list where I'm... GREEN :o

    It really felt like I was getting pocketed, calmy saying "yeah that guy's town" after NOT finding the flaw in the ikarus thingy and disregarding everyone else's opinion felt weird. In a bad way. Retrospectively, TMI ? For SOME reason the thought didn't cross my mind then... Shame.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    ... Okay ? Is there any reason you're refusing to engage with me ?
    Miz replying with the bucketstrat copypasta to my honest question to them... That falls in the line of the refusing-to-engage thingy that I hate, hence me insisting.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Also, I should mention : as much as I want not to, I really like this post.
    Reacting to Mizery's post critizicing MM's (lack of) committed positions. I didn't want to like mizery's posts because I hate that she refuses to answer questions on a whim, still this felt right and fall right in line with what I thought of MM at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    I... Can't say I agree tbh. His readslist is basically "debbie wrote a wall in 4 minutes so he's scum" and "MM is scum because debbie is scum". It IS content, but I fail to see how that's impressive. None of the more recent posts felt particularly interesting either, except maybe the part about PoD and AtE.

    This feels as much as a pocketing attempt as MM's comments about me tbh.
    Reacting to Vittæ congratuling ika for his posts, it felt really over the top to me as he'd done what I'd expect from literally anyone. Yes, I've been disappointed already. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that ika's already doing better than paopan or PQR or whatever but that's not worthy of praise IMO. That's the bare fucking minimum.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Guess it's not me then

    fucking hell I hate the renegade meta
    Reacting to Mizery refusing to reply to vittæ, I had hopes that she simply didn't trust me enough but that was not it. I find it quite frustrating in that it feels like you're getting denied the possibility to play the game...

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Btw do you reckon it's better to mislynch now or tomorrow ?
    I was still thinking I could be the lynch, so that's really a question I asked myself and wanted other people's opinions on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Damn that's a good idea ! How did I not think about it in my previous games ?!
    Pissed off at miz still refusing to discuss ANYTHING with me :'(

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    There's a difference between being nice and being lenient, I guess it is a thin one.

    Ika's accusation did feel legit but that's the kind of stuff that scum love to pick up on to spread doubt and paranoia. Admittedly, that's very likely not what ika's been doing here, but I'm fairly confident that a newbie scum would also be delighted to have (seemingly) valid reasons to cause a mislynch and that's why I wasn't convinced.
    Yeah I was thinking of MM when I wrote that lol. As said here, I think ika's post could come from any alignment so it was really just a bad post. Not bad looking, but bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Okay change of plans, here's a short insight that goes through my head and figured I might as well throw it in there rather than note it somewhere and get back to it in an hour

    I've been thinking about pairings and I think that Vittæ/Mizery is probably not S/S (based on their interaction today, mostly, can't recall exactly what made me think that but I'll get back to it when I can), whereas Vittæ/MM or Mizery/Vittæ seemed very plausible. That's why I'm very intrigued to see Mizery push MM now and how people will respond to that.
    Oh god ANOTHER typo ? Pretty sure that last one's supposed to be MM/Mizery... Yeah I was interested in mizery pushing MM because I thought I could see through it or get a clue if it was bussing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Once again you claim there is causation where there is none, I thought I had seen an inconsistency and jumped on it, that's all.

    How have I been distancing myself ?
    To this day I still don't understand what reaction PoD saw and didn't like. I don't think I've been distancing either but idk

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Yeah it seems like I overestimated how confident people were of their reads. It IS interesting that mizery's vote's still here, especially since she's said she doesn't believe I'm scum anymore.

    For some reason I was convinced ika had voted as well, probably because red = vote in my mind lol

    Anyway let's have another quick mech talk : is it better to skip today lynch tomorrow or lynch asap ? I'm personally hesitant
    At that time I was considering strongly MM/Mizery as a scum team, which is why I mentionned Mizery's vote. It's also then that I realized I probably wouldn't be the lynch, unlike what I had started thinking shortly after waking up (varcron's readlist being about the first thing I read probably played a huge part in that impression).

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    looool nah that's too big where's the catch
    At the time I had a really hard time believing he'd think that. I don't think I'd be comfortable bussing my only scum mate on D1, even softly, especially if I consider them vastly more experienced than I am. I think I also tend to be quite conservative with my votes, but I can't blame him for ignoring that. It didn't feel worth mentioning at the time because there was bigger fish to fry IMO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Why is MM out of here ? In your last readslist to date he was below PoD
    Reacting to #352 where DW stated the lynch was between Miz, PoD and me, despite having MM quite low on his first readslist and never mentioning them again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    PoD & you
    My "hot take" answer to Vittæ's question about scum pairings. While that seemed plausible to me, especially in a s!PoD world, I didn't think it was the likeliest but I figured such a position would prompt interesting reactions. Vittæ DOES strike me as someone that'd bus PoD hard to gain the town cred.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    I'm starting to get a little pissed at all those "if debbie flips scum" comments. So I'll take it on me to compensate :
    If MM flips scum pod looks much better IMO
    If pod flips scum then mizery looks better (because of #194) and vittae worse for the same reason
    If Mizery flips scum then PoD is mostly cleared, again because of #194)
    When I flip town MM will get free towncred (omg Paranoie back at it again !) !!!

    As it stands now I'm voting PoD if we do decide the lynch is better today
    I was quite stupid. This is a post I have a hard time getting back into context now. Retrospectively it seems OBVIOUS that PoD is LHF, yet I still decide he's the best vote regardless of how hard I hated on MM...

    Yet I figured that the PoD flip would give us a lot of info, on DW, on Vittæ and on MM.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    I see. I feel you (also, fuck sb)
    Reacting to DW saying he "can't read MM, sorry". Reading it now, it's quite funny lol

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Yeah MM has also redeemed himself to my eyes (good job, nice pocketing & fuck you just in case - Paranoie). Miz I have to be honest I struggle to read
    Shit, I recall reading a post of MM where I went THAT'S the MM I wanna see, FINA FUCKING LY but it looks like I didn't actually respond to it directly.

    Found it, that was the post in question, where I really liked the interaction with PoD on MM's part.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    ... in which you state that you need some time to get the ball rolling. I must say I like the fact you're basically acknowledging my point on your mech talk vs Debbie's while still defending yours, though. + some townpoints with decay


    Then there is a good chance you're actively unhelpful? Defending yourself and being in constant reaction isn't scum-hunting and doesn't help town, so you're basically saying you do not wish to help here.

    I would rather say it's weird half the town scumread Loldebite and put so much faith in it while he really hadn't done much to be hated for yet lol. Your read is literally based on this:


    which isn't even that much of a scumtell lol. You are making the whole world revolve around yourself (not in the "you're egoist" sense, but in the "you fail to see further" sense), which tells me you're afraid of making mistakes and thus play very conservative.
    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Do y'all think scum is currently voting together and if not why wouldn't they
    Note to self : include a fucking snapshot of votes in these kind of comments.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Wait shit, that's a good point, I was convinced that vittæ was bussing but the scummiest I have rn voting pod is DW
    So why am I voting pod
    I had taken a look at the wagons and realized that I didn't really like it : MM, ika, DW & me were onto PoD but I TR ika and MM at that point, so if PoD was probably not getting bussed as I thought they were. Which in turn meant that they were probably not scum after all, and besides the DW train seemed to face more resistance so it felt better to vote there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    ngl I'm lynching TPR over cit any day
    Another comment that tries to be daring


    Turns out I actually never replied to any of the interactions between miz & vittæ that I liked, I'll get to it now then

  38. ISO #1038

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Mizery posts that I liked

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    Oh no I had votes on me I'm so pressured oh no what am I going to do
    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    What Intel do you find from a pod v flip
    Mizery prodding me with a question, blessed day !

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    Perhaps the wolves committed to bussing
    (short lived) mindmeld

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    Those are truly all townies sir
    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    Wolfy throw ate
    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    I have consolidated the wagons, but at what cost
    And the various piloting/coaching

    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    Is this towny
    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Slightly
    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Miz is town and shouldn't be touched with harmful night actions.
    Which I felt good about for the both of you tbh

    So all in all I was comfortably putting Vittæ in back in town with mizery, but I found the EoD switch a bit weird and it eroded the confidence a tiny bit.

  39. ISO #1039

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    Mizery posts that I liked





    Mizery prodding me with a question, blessed day !



    (short lived) mindmeld







    And the various piloting/coaching







    Which I felt good about for the both of you tbh

    So all in all I was comfortably putting Vittæ in back in town with mizery, but I found the EoD switch a bit weird and it eroded the confidence a tiny bit.
    Thanks for both posts, I'm reading through the longer one now.

    Can you tell me in this post why the you felt good about these specific things please? Besides the mindmeld, I don't understand what made you read those posts as villagery.

  40. ISO #1040

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Also ftr for people answering my question - I wasn't asking for a detailed self ISO, I just recommended reading your own ISO to refresh yourself while talking about your own thoughts and reads if that wasn't clear. Just a big paragraph of thoughts splurge going into everything youve thought in as much detail as possible throughout D1.

    The way Deb has done it works for the most part though, at least gives me a lot to think over and question.

  41. ISO #1041

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Actually Deb.

    Can you walk me through your read on me over the course of this game in excruciating detail? You've changed on me a lot and I want to know the thought processes behind it more and how you progress from calling me town to snap voting me to having me as town (?) to having me in your bottom 2 to having me as so confident town that at start of day today you made several shocked posts at the implication that I was a wolf to then believing I was mafia again (?) and then treating me as town again.

    This progression is wild lol.

  42. ISO #1042

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Actually Deb.

    Can you walk me through your read on me over the course of this game in excruciating detail? You've changed on me a lot and I want to know the thought processes behind it more and how you progress from calling me town to snap voting me to having me as town (?) to having me in your bottom 2 to having me as so confident town that at start of day today you made several shocked posts at the implication that I was a wolf to then believing I was mafia again (?) and then treating me as town again.

    This progression is wild lol.
    I believe this is, to no exaggeration, the wildest series of read changes on a player I have ever seen in my time playing mafia and we're only in the middle of D2.

  43. ISO #1043

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Alright, here we goooooooooOOOO!!!

    Spoiler : The Greatest Wall of China (self-analysis post) :
    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    So have I ^^ glad to be back in there!

    -vote Varcron


    THE TRADITION MUST BE UPHOLDEN
    (The "tradition" refers to the fact Varcron constantly gets lynched D1, to the point it became a running gag on the site; this is half a joke and half a way to draw potential reactions, either from Varcron himself or from people who would question my vote, but we ended up going entirely elsewhere)

    First posts, trying to get the game going through RVS, which I believe is the best way to gather information early on; sometimes, you get immediate information, but basically all the time, you can come back to the early D1 interactions generated by RVS using the information from later flips and make a lot of sense from it. I know I've solved games that way before, even though I don't remember the games themselves lmao.

    Unfortunately, basically noone wanted to get into RVS. Vittae seemed to say "we should make things progress" without actually doing anything to make things progress, which was striking me as performative/"look at me, I'm being proactive!", so basically suspicious. Hence the questions, which I actually expected to be poorly answered by Vittae at that point, so I was getting ready to charge and apply pressure:

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Although at the same time I'm really wanting the game to get going ASAP.
    I agree - but how are you planning to proceed? Are you making the game progress atm? What's your experience with forum mafia?
    Their reply was quite satisfactory, though (explaining their stance with the site, also explaining that they tend to be a high poster and that they're restraining themselves), and opened the way to meaningful discussion with a question about Mizery's opening post ("thank god I thought I was going to rand wolf again"). I liked where it was going and thought that if the "high poster" part were true, it would show soon enough, and that if it weren't, it would also be obvious and easy enough to realize.

    Then came Deathworlds' setup speculation, which looked very big for very little actual content in the middle of page 1. I have historically had issues with reading people who make long, logical, analytic posts, because they tend to be coherent and I used to associate coherence/truth with town way too much, so I'm constantly wary of wall posters. I think I even vaguely remember getting fooled by Deathworlds himself that way, so I was pretty pinged by his speculation post; apart from the public service announcement of not using anti-town power abilities as town, it was more or less a "nothingburger", to use his own favorite expression. Hence I questioned him, got the not exactly satisfying answer "I like setup speculation, it's fun, and now is the time to get into it", so since I was getting nothing of note, I just put him in my scum lean mind category and went to question Ikarus, since he said he had enjoyed reading Deathworlds' post.

    Ikarus' statement, now that I think about it, was pretty spontaneous and genuine-looking, and I quite like it now; but back then, I was mostly interested in a potential association with Deathworlds, so I was in a "is he scum" mindset rather than in an objective observation mindset, I guess. Then Loldebite posted a mech post themselves, but in a way that felt more useful (there was actual talk about what we should or shouldn't do regarding claims, it was more game-related rather than just "in the air"), so I asked Ikarus what he thought of it compared to Deathworlds', and that's when it seems Loldebite began being suspected by many, including Ikarus of course, for reasons I frankly could not understand (hence my later questioning of PoD when he hard pushed him).
    Ikarus' point itself was understandable and convincing at first, though: Loldebite's big post had indeed appeared 4 minutes after his last post, which was impossible to have thought and typed immediatly. It turned out Debbie had said he was working on a post, though, so there was in the end nothing suspicious, and I was left with pretty much nothing. I started feeling like Ikarus was town due to the way he seemed to be reading people (thinks people are wrong = thinks they're scum, which is what I believe he applied to scumread Loldebite, even though I'm actually still not sure), but waited on a reply from him about his reasons for scumreading Debbie before committing to my read. I think that reply never actually came, but other things (namely POD and Mizery) took my attention, so I kinda forgot about it and remained with my vaguely good impression of Ikarus (which, now that I re-read the situation, seems to make sense).

    Between the questions to Ikarus, I had been checking POD's ISO, since I felt like he had said basically nothing noteworthy in spite of him having like 4x my post count at the time (I remember checking postcounts and seeing me having 13 posts when he had 50 or so). Reading his ISO more closely, I found his posts were basically all either useless or entirely self-related (as in, they were all pertaining to someone who had said something about him, in a very defensive manner), so I decided to pressure him and basically try to lead town!him to becoming useful or to lead scum!him to outing himself by being unable to generate anything genuine-looking. It was especially useful in my mind since he was pretty much unattacked (not seriously, at least) at that point in the game, so there was new info to get here. Since he was hellbent on remaining hyperdefensive and strictly refused to address things that weren't just about immediatly defending himself (I had asked him about his read on Mizery, both in order to get him to speak up on something that wasn't directly related to himself and to evaluate the possibility of a POD/Mizery scum pairing, since I was also scumreading Mizery), I concluded he was absolutely not trying to "unrust" himself and his scumdar like a rusty townie would, and that he rather was just an awkward wolf who didn't know how to interact and thus froze on anything that wasn't strictly about himself. (I also remember Vittae expressed a very similar reasoning at some point in D1, and I had a big mindmeld feeling that made me quite significantly townread them, whereas I had been careful not to townread them too quickly for being logical/useful before.) The fact I scumread Mizery at that time also boosted my confidence in my POD scumread, since it REALLY seemed (and honestly still seems when I reread it) that he was purely and simply refusing to interact with her in any way, as if he were afraid of outing her:
    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Since you're blatantly ignoring my question, I put color on it and give you the post: what do you say of this?

    The fact you're straight up ignoring the question despite it being asked in posts you reply to (and those posts are short, so you can't miss it all the time) makes me think we might be in a Mizery/POD world.

    Apart from this, why do you townread Ikarus enough to call him townlocked? This confidence starkly contrasts with the "I need time to get my scumdar going again" and the hyperdefensiveness you showed before.

    I believe we shouldn't take POD to LYLO.
    From that point onwards (or rather, from the point where POD failed to answer the question that was colored in red), I was pretty much sold on a scum!POD, and was confident in my POD/Mizery theory.

    [Going back in time a bit] About Mizery herself, nothing had really caught my attention, since she was just acting like her own relatively lighthearted NAI self, until this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mizery View Post
    Were already winning this game no need to play it so straight
    What makes you say this?
    It starkly contrasted with 1) Mizery's own previous posts, which didn't contain any magic super confident solves that could explain this level of confidence and 2) my own feeling about the gamestate, considering I definetly hadn't anything confident yet (this was before I heavily scumread POD, I was just beginning to pressure him at the time and didn't know it would lead where it did), at least not enough to be anywhere close to saying we were winning. I then thought Mizery had TMI (and upon reread, I have the exact same feeling, and the knowledge of how EOD went only amplifies it tbh), and sensed a dissonance between the level of confidence in her previous posts and the level of confidence this post showed. This snowballed with Mizery's "all your reads are pending" post in which she basically discredited me without drawing any conclusions, which was really just throwing shade; plus, the confidence level it implied once again felt really weird. She never really addressed this, so this feeling basically continued until the mess that was EOD, POD's flip and then Varcron's death threw me into a bit of a confusion - and rereading D1 rekindled my suspicions against her about the confidence level dissonance, btw, although it's weaker than it used to be due to POD's flip. Might be worth looking into further, but I digress. At the time, my suspicions on Mizery and POD were intertwined, mostly due to POD's behavior and especially to his complete refusal to address Mizery.



    OKAY that was longer than I expected lol, and I should eat now. Going back to D1 made me draw two conclusions:
    - I still suspect Mizery, and shouldn't forget about her
    - POD's lynch was basically inevitable and "deserved", without wanting to be rude; knowing he was town, reading his posts feels really weird, because that means he was misplaying so hard as a non-noob

    You better actually read it lmao
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  44. ISO #1044

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Thanks for both posts, I'm reading through the longer one now.

    Can you tell me in this post why the you felt good about these specific things please? Besides the mindmeld, I don't understand what made you read those posts as villagery.
    Basically boils down to Mizery being much more active and invested in town's becoming than previously

  45. ISO #1045

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Actually Deb.

    Can you walk me through your read on me over the course of this game in excruciating detail? You've changed on me a lot and I want to know the thought processes behind it more and how you progress from calling me town to snap voting me to having me as town (?) to having me in your bottom 2 to having me as so confident town that at start of day today you made several shocked posts at the implication that I was a wolf to then believing I was mafia again (?) and then treating me as town again.

    This progression is wild lol.
    NGL being volatile in reads is kind of something I kind of encourage myself to do, with the rationale that if something's really off I'll grow out of it, eventually. Part of the reason is becoming harder to pocket (because I felt like that was a soft spot of mine) and part of the reason is getting harder to anticipate, thus provoking less thought-ahead reactions that are much more interesting. And if it gets me harder to read, that's a bonus for when I'll finally rand wolf

    I'll give a short version here to debrief some I thought were wrong impressions.
    First impressions were town then quite confident town then I got worried about you bussing and at one point you really were bottom 2 but that was short lived and you climbed up somewhat but I was still wary, high of bottom half I'd say. Then at EoD 1 miz started making sense again and I kinda felt this was thanks to you, at least in part, and you seemd to actively encourage her to be even more towny so you climbed all the way up again. At SoD 2 I got worried you were poisoned but from that point on you never really got lower. Right now you're probably my most confident TR, the only world where I conceive you being scum is the one world where DW is town.

  46. ISO #1046

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Loldebite View Post
    NGL being volatile in reads is kind of something I kind of encourage myself to do, with the rationale that if something's really off I'll grow out of it, eventually. Part of the reason is becoming harder to pocket (because I felt like that was a soft spot of mine) and part of the reason is getting harder to anticipate, thus provoking less thought-ahead reactions that are much more interesting. And if it gets me harder to read, that's a bonus for when I'll finally rand wolf

    I'll give a short version here to debrief some I thought were wrong impressions.
    First impressions were town then quite confident town then I got worried about you bussing and at one point you really were bottom 2 but that was short lived and you climbed up somewhat but I was still wary, high of bottom half I'd say. Then at EoD 1 miz started making sense again and I kinda felt this was thanks to you, at least in part, and you seemd to actively encourage her to be even more towny so you climbed all the way up again. At SoD 2 I got worried you were poisoned but from that point on you never really got lower. Right now you're probably my most confident TR, the only world where I conceive you being scum is the one world where DW is town.
    Forgot an important part !
    "with the rationale that if something's really off I'll grow out of it, eventually." BUT that if I 'accidentaly' put my finger on something, then I may cling to it and figure shit out.

  47. ISO #1047

  48. ISO #1048

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Alright, here we goooooooooOOOO!!!

    Spoiler : The Greatest Wall of China (self-analysis post) :
    (The "tradition" refers to the fact Varcron constantly gets lynched D1, to the point it became a running gag on the site; this is half a joke and half a way to draw potential reactions, either from Varcron himself or from people who would question my vote, but we ended up going entirely elsewhere)

    First posts, trying to get the game going through RVS, which I believe is the best way to gather information early on; sometimes, you get immediate information, but basically all the time, you can come back to the early D1 interactions generated by RVS using the information from later flips and make a lot of sense from it. I know I've solved games that way before, even though I don't remember the games themselves lmao.

    Unfortunately, basically noone wanted to get into RVS. Vittae seemed to say "we should make things progress" without actually doing anything to make things progress, which was striking me as performative/"look at me, I'm being proactive!", so basically suspicious. Hence the questions, which I actually expected to be poorly answered by Vittae at that point, so I was getting ready to charge and apply pressure:



    Their reply was quite satisfactory, though (explaining their stance with the site, also explaining that they tend to be a high poster and that they're restraining themselves), and opened the way to meaningful discussion with a question about Mizery's opening post ("thank god I thought I was going to rand wolf again"). I liked where it was going and thought that if the "high poster" part were true, it would show soon enough, and that if it weren't, it would also be obvious and easy enough to realize.

    Then came Deathworlds' setup speculation, which looked very big for very little actual content in the middle of page 1. I have historically had issues with reading people who make long, logical, analytic posts, because they tend to be coherent and I used to associate coherence/truth with town way too much, so I'm constantly wary of wall posters. I think I even vaguely remember getting fooled by Deathworlds himself that way, so I was pretty pinged by his speculation post; apart from the public service announcement of not using anti-town power abilities as town, it was more or less a "nothingburger", to use his own favorite expression. Hence I questioned him, got the not exactly satisfying answer "I like setup speculation, it's fun, and now is the time to get into it", so since I was getting nothing of note, I just put him in my scum lean mind category and went to question Ikarus, since he said he had enjoyed reading Deathworlds' post.

    Ikarus' statement, now that I think about it, was pretty spontaneous and genuine-looking, and I quite like it now; but back then, I was mostly interested in a potential association with Deathworlds, so I was in a "is he scum" mindset rather than in an objective observation mindset, I guess. Then Loldebite posted a mech post themselves, but in a way that felt more useful (there was actual talk about what we should or shouldn't do regarding claims, it was more game-related rather than just "in the air"), so I asked Ikarus what he thought of it compared to Deathworlds', and that's when it seems Loldebite began being suspected by many, including Ikarus of course, for reasons I frankly could not understand (hence my later questioning of PoD when he hard pushed him).
    Ikarus' point itself was understandable and convincing at first, though: Loldebite's big post had indeed appeared 4 minutes after his last post, which was impossible to have thought and typed immediatly. It turned out Debbie had said he was working on a post, though, so there was in the end nothing suspicious, and I was left with pretty much nothing. I started feeling like Ikarus was town due to the way he seemed to be reading people (thinks people are wrong = thinks they're scum, which is what I believe he applied to scumread Loldebite, even though I'm actually still not sure), but waited on a reply from him about his reasons for scumreading Debbie before committing to my read. I think that reply never actually came, but other things (namely POD and Mizery) took my attention, so I kinda forgot about it and remained with my vaguely good impression of Ikarus (which, now that I re-read the situation, seems to make sense).

    Between the questions to Ikarus, I had been checking POD's ISO, since I felt like he had said basically nothing noteworthy in spite of him having like 4x my post count at the time (I remember checking postcounts and seeing me having 13 posts when he had 50 or so). Reading his ISO more closely, I found his posts were basically all either useless or entirely self-related (as in, they were all pertaining to someone who had said something about him, in a very defensive manner), so I decided to pressure him and basically try to lead town!him to becoming useful or to lead scum!him to outing himself by being unable to generate anything genuine-looking. It was especially useful in my mind since he was pretty much unattacked (not seriously, at least) at that point in the game, so there was new info to get here. Since he was hellbent on remaining hyperdefensive and strictly refused to address things that weren't just about immediatly defending himself (I had asked him about his read on Mizery, both in order to get him to speak up on something that wasn't directly related to himself and to evaluate the possibility of a POD/Mizery scum pairing, since I was also scumreading Mizery), I concluded he was absolutely not trying to "unrust" himself and his scumdar like a rusty townie would, and that he rather was just an awkward wolf who didn't know how to interact and thus froze on anything that wasn't strictly about himself. (I also remember Vittae expressed a very similar reasoning at some point in D1, and I had a big mindmeld feeling that made me quite significantly townread them, whereas I had been careful not to townread them too quickly for being logical/useful before.) The fact I scumread Mizery at that time also boosted my confidence in my POD scumread, since it REALLY seemed (and honestly still seems when I reread it) that he was purely and simply refusing to interact with her in any way, as if he were afraid of outing her:


    From that point onwards (or rather, from the point where POD failed to answer the question that was colored in red), I was pretty much sold on a scum!POD, and was confident in my POD/Mizery theory.

    [Going back in time a bit] About Mizery herself, nothing had really caught my attention, since she was just acting like her own relatively lighthearted NAI self, until this:



    It starkly contrasted with 1) Mizery's own previous posts, which didn't contain any magic super confident solves that could explain this level of confidence and 2) my own feeling about the gamestate, considering I definetly hadn't anything confident yet (this was before I heavily scumread POD, I was just beginning to pressure him at the time and didn't know it would lead where it did), at least not enough to be anywhere close to saying we were winning. I then thought Mizery had TMI (and upon reread, I have the exact same feeling, and the knowledge of how EOD went only amplifies it tbh), and sensed a dissonance between the level of confidence in her previous posts and the level of confidence this post showed. This snowballed with Mizery's "all your reads are pending" post in which she basically discredited me without drawing any conclusions, which was really just throwing shade; plus, the confidence level it implied once again felt really weird. She never really addressed this, so this feeling basically continued until the mess that was EOD, POD's flip and then Varcron's death threw me into a bit of a confusion - and rereading D1 rekindled my suspicions against her about the confidence level dissonance, btw, although it's weaker than it used to be due to POD's flip. Might be worth looking into further, but I digress. At the time, my suspicions on Mizery and POD were intertwined, mostly due to POD's behavior and especially to his complete refusal to address Mizery.



    OKAY that was longer than I expected lol, and I should eat now. Going back to D1 made me draw two conclusions:
    - I still suspect Mizery, and shouldn't forget about her
    - POD's lynch was basically inevitable and "deserved", without wanting to be rude; knowing he was town, reading his posts feels really weird, because that means he was misplaying so hard as a non-noob

    You better actually read it lmao
    God I haven't even opened the spoilsr and it's a t3rrible post

  49. ISO #1049

    Re: S-FM 348: Standoff

    Quote Originally Posted by Vittae View Post
    Thanks.

    Thoughts on the possibility that if you're town and Death is town, there could be a second mafia bartender instead of a tailor that messed with Death's results?

    I'm considering the possibility of a setup where the mafia have an almost mirrored set of roles to us (invest/bartend/chemist town vs invest/bartend mafia) and this is basically the only possible setup where you and Death can be t/t and there is a mafia role that your night action could be used on (otherwise your role is legitimately useless instead of having a tiny purpose in the setup which I find pretty unlikely? Why would you get a role as town if the only purpose is to hurt town?).
    It is definitely possible. It is just as likely that the mafia has a bartender not a tailor (both equally strong in mafia alignment imo). You are doing the correct thing to assume I am not confirmed because of this possibility.

    In a world where death is town and him scanning loldebite as tailor unfortunately means nothing because the mafia bartender would've targetted death since his last minute claim.

    I think it'd balance out 'town invest, town kill, town deception' vs 'mafia invest, mafia deception'

  50. ISO #1050

 

 

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