S-FM 327 : Last Hope

[Oberon]

The reason it could be NAI is that WrathCyber’s commentary was very reasonable, and him being a new player kinda scares me. X.X
That being said, I still think hes town

[theoneceko]

Yes

Which is why I am bringing it up because @Frinckles (and a few others I think? I don't remember) have labeled Oberon as town and Wrath as scum. Which based on this analysis, doesn't seem very likely.

So either:

• There is more to their scum read on Wrath - in which case their town read on Oberon should be called into question.
• There isn't anymore to their scum read on Wrath - in which case their scum read on Wrath should be re-evaluated.

hmmmmmm

easy to follow steps, i wonder if it's a mistake to follow a path someone lays out for you in FM. the last time i did that, i got completely screwed (thanks frinckles)

i'll entertain you and see where this goes. bc i'm "99%" sure you're town, as frinckles said about me earlier

[Oberon]

PORNHACK is also a good scum candidate for being a sheep tbh

[Oberon]

I’m like 95% sure someone will scumread Richard for his tone, but his play is NAI, and his thoughts were pretty good

[theoneceko]

I’m like 95% sure someone will scumread Richard for his tone, but his play is NAI, and his thoughts were pretty good

you're pretty good!!!

UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[Lumi]

Also since I just realized what @Oberon was talking about, wanted to address it now. You mentioned that I was going after you for something OOG, if you're referring to what I think you're referring to then:

While I disagree with some of your world views, I don't hold a grudge against you as a person. I think people can get along very well despite having different world views (and in some cases that just involves agreeing to not talk about those topics with each other - which is why I didn't respond to you at all later in that thread, despite having read your posts - it's just best to not open that can of worms).

I do apologize for the tone of that message though, since I wrote it assuming you weren't being entirely genuine with your posts (trolling), but since you were being genuine, then while I do still very much disagree with you - I apologize for being so harsh.

If you want to talk about it more we can take the conversation offline (although not sure what the rules are with FM? Surely people can still DM each other while playing in a FM game together as long as they don't talk about the game?).

[Lumi]

hmmmmmm

easy to follow steps, i wonder if it's a mistake to follow a path someone lays out for you in FM. the last time i did that, i got completely screwed (thanks frinckles)

i'll entertain you and see where this goes. bc i'm "99%" sure you're town, as frinckles said about me earlier

The steps are open to their interpretation - and (in my opinion at least) a pretty logical conclusion following from my analysis.

There is of course the third option of them just saying "your analysis is bad, go home"

But I would obviously disagree with them at that point lol

[Oberon]

Yes, my bad lagattack. I’d just woken up when I posted that so I misread.

[CRichardForumLies]

I think @CRichardForumLies is scum. They claimed to be having dinner, but can we trust them??? very suspicious

Ah yes my prediction has come to pass .
Regarding Wrath, I feel like they probably wouldn't be hard defending Oberon if they were Village/Scum here as that would incriminate Wrath as having TMI if Oberon were to flip V at EoD.
The most likely world I think we're living in is that Wrath + Oberon are town.

So my PoE is something like this.

Marshmallow Marshal: 1 poster who seems to be occupied by real life.
PQR: Don't remember them solving in any notable way.
ZZOrange; Not s/s with Yuesford.
Yuesford: Not s/s with ZZOrange.
NumberTwo: Two poster who has gone AWOL.
blinkskater: Don'r remember thinking this is obvious villager.

[CRichardForumLies]

Mind you it seems I missed skater by 14 hours.
So if they're town, then I missed a chance to find out by interacting with them.
It is what it is.

[CRichardForumLies]

I feel like Marshmallow Marshal should be able to be make themselves obvious town if they posted more.
They come across as experienced at Forum Mafia and I've seen them on other forum mafia websites.

[CRichardForumLies]

So @Marshmallow Marshall , lets talk.

[CRichardForumLies]

So if my PoE is correct and contains all 3 shadows, then just two of them have to clear themselves socially or otherwise and that's gg.
I'm not entirely sure I've got the solve as this is D1.

[CRichardForumLies]

In before it turns out I miscleared someone D1.

[theoneceko]

i swear at some point during this game we already found scum from one of the ppl that actually posted.

i've noticed a trend of games being solved day 1; in last game, frinckles found both scum on day 1. i played one where scum!wisp was lynched day 1, then on day 2 town won when oberon, who was the last scum, forfeited. i also played one with bruno where he basically called out three scum on day 1...

i re-read wrath's iso. sorry crichard, but i heavily disagree with ur townread on him. even though it can be argued that the interactions between wrath and oberon were town v town, pretty much every other post he makes just looks scummy lol

[theoneceko]

looking at lurkers isn't a bad idea, but looking more into wrath's play isn't a bad idea either

[CRichardForumLies]

I can see Wrath being a possible misclear if they were defending Oberon for towncred if the latter is town.
Speaking of lurkers, I haven't heard much from PQR for sometime.

[OzyWho]

People be thread sitting all this time?

Scrolling through some ISO's:
I see MM caught up only 1st page; that's to be expected, he warned us that he won't have no time.
However, tonally he is in his scum meta. For comparison, matrix6 was his town meta. Also, being against the neutral revealing? wtf?

@CRichardForumLies
If you don't mind me asking, how did this post came to be?

That's fair.
I'm still not used to this website having no ISO feature.

Because, before then - I posted twice how to get to the ISO feature, one of which you said thank you to:

Thank you.

I question how genuine you are, or if it's all just performative.

Ceko and LagAttack are just lock town though.

[OzyWho]

this is kinda the same mistake ppl made when they read SJ as scum last game, everyone assumed SJ was PRETENDING to protect No2 as citizen, when in fact he was just trolling lol

SJ flipped scum yo

[CRichardForumLies]

People be thread sitting all this time?

Scrolling through some ISO's:
I see MM caught up only 1st page; that's to be expected, he warned us that he won't have no time.
However, tonally he is in his scum meta. For comparison, matrix6 was his town meta. Also, being against the neutral revealing? wtf?

@CRichardForumLies
If you don't mind me asking, how did this post came to be?


Because, before then - I posted twice how to get to the ISO feature, one of which you said thank you to:

I question how genuine you are, or if it's all just performative.

Ceko and LagAttack are just lock town though.

I can dig Ceko and LagAttack being town.
Oh speaking of MarshMallow Marshal, I can look at the Matrix6 game now as that's finished.
No reason not to do it now.

[Lumi]

One last message before I go offline for a while. If wrath flips scum then there's a very good chance that Oberon is scum too, potential 2 for 1 there, with double the upside I think special scrutiny should be paid on those two for that reason.

Although I also want to policy lynch lurkers PQR with special mentions in the department because I had them as my scummiest read along the lurkers

[CRichardForumLies]

Oh I found there is an ISO feature once I was pointed to it by PQR.
This is my first game here on this site, so it would make sense I had trouble accessing ISOs at first.

[OzyWho]

This is an overcomplication.

@Varcron
you wanted me to go dig through the pages to quote his direct posts, instead of paraphrasing them, in order to point out a contradiction?
Cmon mate

[OzyWho]

Oh I found there is an ISO feature once I was pointed to it by PQR.
This is my first game here on this site, so it would make sense I had trouble accessing ISOs at first.

Sure, np. But you missed the 2 times I pointed it out when you were caught up, one of which you said thank you to.

[OzyWho]

Don't answer my question to oberon for him, that's scum points.

I didn't?
2nd post in a row now you feel painty

[OzyWho]

Interesting take, but I'd trust my sense on this one that Varcron is likely shadow.

You just posted a reads list where you townread Varcron.

-vote WrathCyber

[OzyWho]

Oh boy, lots of posts first day. I am not prepared to lynch Oberon, he is a bit all over the place, but I dont have a strong read one way or the other on him. But, it doesnt make sense for a townie to act in a manner that may prompt the Shadow to think they're Templar - Magus gets RBed, villager dies, hero gets leveled down. Maybe Oberon is indeed a Templar, hmm..

I am a bit sus of NumberTwo's "taking the bullet" and voting ceko. So for now, I will place my vote here.

-vote NumberTwo

You're more familiar with the setup, and what the shadow's big guy does, than I am.
I could totally see it being due to you being the shadow guy, ngl.

[OzyWho]

Hey, he's done more than the AFKs such as myself

-vote CRichardForumLies

Chainsaw Defense
The general form of this tell is "a player who defends another player by attacking the other player's attacker is very probably scum".

-vote PQRnHack

[CRichardForumLies]

Interesting take, but I'd trust my sense on this one that Varcron is likely shadow.

I think this clears Varcron as not shadow if this is a hit.
As I don't think Varcron/Wrath are Scum/Scum if this interaction is anything to go by.

[OzyWho]

I don't get what you're saying here.
If I said hello to everyone, wouldn't that include saying hello to you as well?
I'll chalk it up to not being able to see body language behind computer screen.

@CRichardForumLies
You ignored LagAttack's multiple paragraphs of debunk of your argument about Oberon's train, only interest you had was the 1-liner of `30 scum points to you`.

I feel like debating your reasons could be valuable in the pursuit of truth, not just pointing them out and ignoring other's skepticism of it.

[theoneceko]

yea I'm feeling a bit overwhelmed

tonally, this sounds like a newbie that unfortunately rolled scum

-vote lagattack

I agree with lagattack, but I think he's jester so I'm voting him

contradiction
considering these are wrath's very first FM posts and that he's a player from the mod, i've to say that wrath is playing like many scum players on the mod. he creates confusion.

Sounds like something mafia would say to overcomplicate and confuse town

doesn't even point out which post is "overcomplicating" the game for town, but i assume he was referring to varcron here

Town:
WrathCyber
TheOneCeko(scumread, likely town)
Oberon(scumread, likely town)



Townish:
Vacron(Good scumread on evil roles and calling out the fallacy of Templar on Oberon)

Ozy

Templar/Neutral
LagAttack clearly manipulating us by overwhelming and misdirecting our attention to others such as Oberon who is by far, the least of our concerns


Scumish
Lagattack, zzOrange(clearly active on discord and sc2 but not FM? Seems as though he's reading our posts in incognito and taking notes)


Scum
The AFK Lurkers (Agree with Vacron)

wrath is using big words here, but his read on lagattack doesn't make sense. he doesn't go into detail why lagattack is "clearly manipulating us." strangely, he puts lagattack in the "Scumish" category too with zzOrange. however, his reason for scumreading zz is kinda bs too. since this was the very beginning of the game, i won't ding him too much for the zz read. however, if wrath flips scum, i'm most likely going to read zz as town

clearly.

the only info you need to take from this is that wrath was AGREEING with varc here

-unvote Lagattack
-vote Varcron

for context purposes, this is literally just two posts after. note how in the reads list i quoted, he had varc as a top town, then when he listed the "Scum" as AFK lurkers, said he was agreeing with varc here. people changing minds in RVS stage isn't typically scummy, but this is a very drastic change in his opinion of varc.

I've upped my scum points of you. That's unnecessary information only scum would sow confusion.

I'm grading him on his plausibility of being scum. In this case, that's close to 0. Unlike you and Vacron who are actively manipulating this thread by using preconceived opinions about a specific player as a reason for placing them as town or scum.

Interesting take, but I'd trust my sense on this one that Varcron is likely shadow.

more attacks on varcron

Speaking of, we have 3 guests on this thread. That could only mean that those 3 who are reading this thread are not:

Me
LagAttack
Oberon
TheOneCeko
Varcron

Ofc, they can pull up on an incognito tab but that would be too much hassle. Also, I would be willing place zzorange being one of those people as I'd seen him online 5 mins ago when there were only 2 guests viewing this thread.

this looks like it helps town, but it really doesn't >_>
i can't tell if wrath is trying to fake being helpful or if he's actually trying to help.

Varcron.

-vote vacron

more attacks on varcron

here's my take on the newer players who've just joined us:
@Yuesford: seems to hold a grudge against zzOrange, immediately votes him and proceeds to ghost for the rest of the day. He has that happy-go-lucky attitude that is reminiscent of a typical jester play, maybe under a pretense that he's "new". They even proceed to say "Anyway, I feel overwhelmed rn. Where are the role cards? XD." when clearly, he should have known beforehand exactly how FM works. This in itself isn't an issue, except that fact he's clearly read all of our messages(proven by the fact that he's been on this forum page active for more than 2 hours), and copies what I said when I first joined: "I'm feeling overwhelmed". In psychology terms, we call that a Freudian slip. This type of action can only warrant him Shadow, if not Templar.

CRichardForumLies : They've snowballed slowly from 'this is my first FM game' to accusing others immediately. When I scum read this person, it looks to me as if they want to actively contribute- a little too forcefully - as if they seem afraid of being labeled as being scum. They make multiple posts in succession, each with small details. This tells me that they haven't really put much thought into what they've said and are just winging it and adding on details as they go on. This type of play would most closely mock a typical DH ENF play who wants to appease as innocently as possible by contributing to the town's efforts in lynching scum but not outrightly warranting suspicion.

i personally find his yuesford read to be odd. does anyone else think yuesford is a templar?? the fact he used "freudian slip" to suggest yuesford is also odd. perhaps he's bringing a grudge from the mod into this game??

his crichard scumread is based on tone and inaccurate information (this is crichard's first fm on this site, not his first fm in general)

Quite the contrary actually. Varcron is the most suspicious throwing wayward claims about Oberon.

wayward?? why r u so confident that oberon is town?

Seems like too much of an effort to convince people he is town if he was truly evil. It's just a 6th sense.

more confidence in oberon's towniness

~~~

the biggest scumtell is his "jester-read" on lagattack. i don't think we should ever see wrath as town for this, and i'll explain why. i've seen a thousand players on the mod sow confusion with pretty random posts, and i don't think u can get more random in this game than claiming lagattack is a jester. he seems to have backtracked off that strategy since then, but i get the feeling that's just because he realized this wasn't a viable strategy in FM, which lasts way longer than games on the mod.

it's not surprising that wrath scumread varc, since varc "always looks scummy," but his shift from seeing varc as town to scum is too drastic to make me think it's genuine.

players on the mod tend to vote with and defend their scum teammates. rn, wrath is clearly defending oberon. wrath doesn't know oberon's meta, so i find it hard to believe that wrath is a villager who saw oberon's blatantly scummy posts, then jumped ahead a few steps to not only townread oberon but also scumread varcron and lagattack, who suspect oberon of being scum. also, as auwt said, there wasn't a n0 for the mafia to discuss their strategy, so if oberon is scum, there's no way he could've told wrath to consider bussing.

this is purely a tonal argument, but wrath sounds too confident in his reads. this is likely a big scumtell if you consider a world where he's a newbie scum who doesn't know that scum should act like they don't know anyone else's faction is. wrath has not given that "confused townie" vibe all game

finally, i agree with whoever said wrath is a "frozen scum." wrath's playstyle reminds me a lot of my very first scum game. i didn't know how to interact with my teammates in the thread or how to convince everyone i was town while voting town out, so i kind of just AFK'ed. to me, wrath definitely looks like he's lurking too much for a noob town

[OzyWho]

In case this wasn't mentioned earlier, Ceko and Yues are not scum/scum if this post is anything to go by.
It would make more sense for scum!Ceko to privately prod Yue to post in thread rather than lurk.
Yet that isn't what happened.

I'm thinking of derp clearing this as a `town slip`.

[theoneceko]

I can see Wrath being a possible misclear if they were defending Oberon for towncred if the latter is town.
Speaking of lurkers, I haven't heard much from PQR for sometime.

if you didn't know, you can check the bottom of the page to see who's viewing the thread.

pqrnhack isn't "lurking," at least based on my definition of "lurking," which is when a player views the thread without actually contributing. pqrnhack has been straight up afk. i haven't seen her viewing the thread for a while

[OzyWho]

Uhh, nope

"The Shadows own a night only chat."

I feel like this is your 4th post and 50% of your content has been clarifying people on mafia role mechanics and chat mechanics. You're very familiar with the Scum side of the setup, good, but is fair to say that it's easier for you to post stuff like that than reads and opinions?

[theoneceko]

You just posted a reads list where you townread Varcron.

-vote WrathCyber

i like this mindmeld :3

i didn't even know ozy voted wrathcyber by the time i pointed this exact thing out in my iso of wrath

[OzyWho]

Fair point, but this could be looked at as a pocket of me.

scum/scum

[theoneceko]

I think this clears Varcron as not shadow if this is a hit.
As I don't think Varcron/Wrath are Scum/Scum if this interaction is anything to go by.

it is. no way a player from the mod would know how to bus, especially if that player is new to fm and didn't have a n0 to talk with his teammates

[OzyWho]

Ok, after that chainsaw defense of PQR.
After that familiarity of scum roles of PQR. (bad point, i know, bite me!)
After this scum/scum interaction.

I want either PQR or Varcron lynched today.
There's is little to no doubt in my mind that they're both Shadows.

[OzyWho]

/will continue catching back up later

[OzyWho]

Ohh and my read on Wrath is still `he has either a severe case of town syndrome or straight up mod-jester`.
TWBTAW

[theoneceko]

I feel like this is your 4th post and 50% of your content has been clarifying people on mafia role mechanics and chat mechanics. You're very familiar with the Scum side of the setup, good, but is fair to say that it's easier for you to post stuff like that than reads and opinions?

if scum team is pqrnhack oberon wrath, i will literally die LMFAO

[OzyWho]

I flip-flop a lot..

[theoneceko]

if scum team is pqrnhack oberon wrath, i will literally die LMFAO

i said something similar before, but this would explain why oberon is so apathetic this game :3

watch me be wrong on all three of these players ;W;

[theoneceko]

@OzyWho what are 'Chainsaw Defense' and 'TWBTAW'?

[CRichardForumLies]

@CRichardForumLies
You ignored LagAttack's multiple paragraphs of debunk of your argument about Oberon's train, only interest you had was the 1-liner of `30 scum points to you`.

I feel like debating your reasons could be valuable in the pursuit of truth, not just pointing them out and ignoring other's skepticism of it.

Yeah I was considering Lag's counter argument when I was talking about Oberon's wagon/train.
Oberon has scum/scum equity with Wrath and I'll definitely be placing my vote on either of them if one of them flips today and they are shadow.
I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out I was misclearing at least Wrath/Oberon.

I still don't like PQRnhack coasting and just talking about mechanics.

-vote PQRnHack

[OzyWho]

@OzyWho what are 'Chainsaw Defense' and 'TWBTAW'?

Chainsaw Defense I linked earlier.
TWTBAW = Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf
Usually I lynch every TWTBAW I see, but when it's a new player + to such a extreme extent, I have to agree with the sentiment that they're unlikely a wolf. (Their play feels like SC2 Jester play even)

[CRichardForumLies]

I feel like this is your 4th post and 50% of your content has been clarifying people on mafia role mechanics and chat mechanics. You're very familiar with the Scum side of the setup, good, but is fair to say that it's easier for you to post stuff like that than reads and opinions?

Yeah that's a theme I've noticed with PQR.
They seem to be fine with talking about setup mechanics, and not so much with reads.
That looks way too much like IIOA (Information Instead Of Analysis) to ignore.

[PQRnHack]

shaddup. you are 90% town and 10% not town stop making the game about you

more like 91%, 10/11 outside your faction ;) or higher if you don't believe he could be Templar

OK time to read 3 more pages, great

[PQRnHack]

Yeah that's a theme I've noticed with PQR.
They seem to be fine with talking about setup mechanics, and not so much with reads.
That looks way too much like IIOA (Information Instead Of Analysis) to ignore.

It's because I'm a mod player, not FM player. It's day 1. If pros are scum, what are the odds that they slip up or give some clue D1, unless it's like the earlier Matrix game and there are some roleclaims and counterclaims made?

[CRichardForumLies]

It's because I'm a mod player, not FM player. It's day 1. If pros are scum, what are the odds that they slip up or give some clue D1, unless it's like the earlier Matrix game and there are some roleclaims and counterclaims made?

Even in SC2 Mafia, scum usually prefer to go UTR rather than talk and give information to help town find them.
As they are the prey the town needs to find to win the game.