S-FM 347: Lazzy

[ikarusdk]

Oliver did say EoD for him was 2am, so it must be 10pm for him right now.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I figured you were Lumi

I don't have a reason per se, but in comparison to the other game, Oliver hasn't really been active. He was more vocal there and he flipped scum. It's a polar opposite here. Maybe he has been really busy, maybe he is trying to stay hidden but he is on the spotlight right now with 4 hours remaining, and the fact he hasn't shown up to defend himself makes me believe he's just not/can't play right now.

A common mistake that players make is playing one game with someone and thinking that they know everything about how that player plays and would play in future games.

I've played or hosted close to a dozen games with Oliver in them and his lack of activity here is also not like his town play.

Playing differently from a wolf performance is only alignment indicative if that difference matches how they usually play as town - and it doesn't in this case.

Also stealth isn't polarized. Polarized means someone who plays one way as one alignment and a different way as a different alignment. You shouldn't be townreading him by virtue of him playing similarly to the last game you played with him since he plays like that regardless of alignment

[Trout]

Trout easily sheeping Mabel way before Mabel explained why Oliver would be a good first day lynch, and two votes on Oli.. hmm

hey, first of all, only I get to passively imply that someone is acting scummy, how dare you
second of all, I voted them because they've added nothing to this conversation. For all I know your excuse of him "playing differently than when he was scum in warcraft" could be a clever disguise to fool Me Specifically because no one else has played with them. Like what does that even mean?? They haven't PLAYED yet, what are you trying to cover for here Mr. Ikarus????

[Varcron]

I would like Varcron to come back before EoD and lead us to victory.

Varcron - sheriff
Oliver - completely different to how he played in warcraft where he was scum.
StealthBomber - I feel SB is playing exactly how he played in Warcraft, with less activity due to being busy.
Trout
Mabel

I'm currently typing this from my phone just before I enter my last final of the semester

I'll try to get a quick post out about who we should Lynch but no promises it'll have good reads in it.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Also too townie to be town is even worse of a read than too wolfy to be a wolf.

I'm not saying I expect you to townread me, but you should engage with what I said - in particular trout, I took his pivot against you for sheeping him to be a very townie look

Wolves often don't think to do that, especially newer wolves who are happy to just have their push on a town be sheeped

[ikarusdk]

I'm not town reading SB or Oliver. I only trust Varcron at this stage unless someone CC's him in the future which I doubt is going to happen since here's not night kill here.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Oliver/Stealth
Ikarus/Stealth
Oliver/Ikarus
Trout/Stealth

The exact wolf team is one of those four - more likely ones at the top

[ikarusdk]

hey, first of all, only I get to passively imply that someone is acting scummy, how dare you
second of all, I voted them because they've added nothing to this conversation. For all I know your excuse of him "playing differently than when he was scum in warcraft" could be a clever disguise to fool Me Specifically because no one else has played with them. Like what does that even mean?? They haven't PLAYED yet, what are you trying to cover for here Mr. Ikarus????

We have SB and myself that played with Oliver in that game and Mabel was watching that game also. You are right we could lynch Oliver based on his lack of contribution thus far, but towns would be very reluctant to lynch anyone on day 1 based on activity especially since there is no night kill and no day lynch is required, whereas scum would love to lynch someone because there is no night kill.

[Trout]

Oliver/Stealth
Ikarus/Stealth
Oliver/Ikarus
Trout/Stealth

The exact wolf team is one of those four - more likely ones at the top

stop trying to get on my good side, Mabel. Why did you leave out the possibility of it being me and Ikarus?
This whole "ooh Trout is so trustworthy and i would never think to go against their word wink wink" thing isn't working for you and it never will

[FM-Mabel Pines]

We have SB and myself that played with Oliver in that game and Mabel was watching that game also. You are right we could lynch Oliver based on his lack of contribution thus far, but towns would be very reluctant to lynch anyone on day 1 based on activity especially since there is no night kill and no day lynch is required, whereas scum would love to lynch someone because there is no night kill.

We have to kill someone today, if we don't decide we don't get another 48 hours, someone will just die at random from the people when the most votes.

Also I've played plenty with Oliver, him being inactive is not townie, nor is it particularly scummy

Other players have just been townier than him like you and trout.

[Trout]

stop trying to get on my good side, Mabel. Why did you leave out the possibility of it being me and Ikarus?
This whole "ooh Trout is so trustworthy and i would never think to go against their word wink wink" thing isn't working for you and it never will

i will not

-unvote

in protest

[FM-Mabel Pines]

stop trying to get on my good side, Mabel. Why did you leave out the possibility of it being me and Ikarus?
This whole "ooh Trout is so trustworthy and i would never think to go against their word wink wink" thing isn't working for you and it never will

The way you turned on him when he seeped you and the way you've talked to him now feels unpairing

Additionally the fact that you're willing to murderize Oliver right now is pretty unpairing for you and Oliver

[Trout]

*now

[ikarusdk]

Trout's posts are funny - I like him so far. I put him at either town or has played FM before elsewhere.

The way he attacks ikar for sheeping him is something that you almost never see from a new scum. It's possible that due to a lack of content in this game getting good reads will be difficult and he managed to pull a clever move earning himself a townread, or it's possible that he's undersold his past FM experience. But either way I don't think I ever kill there today - which is unfortunate since he's currently voting me.

Also too townie to be town is even worse of a read than too wolfy to be a wolf.

I'm not saying I expect you to townread me, but you should engage with what I said - in particular trout, I took his pivot against you for sheeping him to be a very townie look

Wolves often don't think to do that, especially newer wolves who are happy to just have their push on a town be sheeped

Well the reason why I didn't take his attacks to heart is because, first of all, I wasn't sheeping anyone. I had an independent thought/question on you, which coincidentally matched with what Varcron had thought, and Trout's vote on you. I just took that as Trout gauging me as a new player, which is fair. Happened in the first game, and I expected it to happen here too.

If anything, I kind of saw Trout's vote as an early establishment of a fake trout vs mabel scenario, if not a joke.

[ikarusdk]

Oliver/Stealth
Ikarus/Stealth
Oliver/Ikarus
Trout/Stealth

The exact wolf team is one of those four - more likely ones at the top

If that is the case, why aren't you pushing harder for SB rather than Oliver? Man now I feel like I am defending Oli's vote too much I am going to stop because it's so scummy if it were true.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Well the reason why I didn't take his attacks to heart is because, first of all, I wasn't sheeping anyone. I had an independent thought/question on you, which coincidentally matched with what Varcron had thought, and Trout's vote on you. I just took that as Trout gauging me as a new player, which is fair. Happened in the first game, and I expected it to happen here too.

If anything, I kind of saw Trout's vote as an early establishment of a fake trout vs mabel scenario, if not a joke.

Do you have reads on players in this game ignoring meta?wolves often use meta as a crutch

[Trout]

Actually if someone has to die D1 I am forced to do

-vote oliverz144

for now as I will be asleep for the next 8 hours.
Hopefully he does come back with a good defense because my death as a townie will have been less damaging than that of his as he is more experienced than me. You could try to pivot off of me but seeing as we are only barely the majority I don't think Mafia will let that happen. Good night

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Do you have reads on players in this game ignoring meta?wolves often use meta as a crutch

If that is the case, why aren't you pushing harder for SB rather than Oliver? Man now I feel like I am defending Oli's vote too much I am going to stop because it's so scummy if it were true.

Because being wrong on stealth is probably a loss whereas we can recover from chopping an awol player

[ikarusdk]

Do you have reads on players in this game ignoring meta?wolves often use meta as a crutch

I must leave for an hour, but I will be back with more coherent thoughts on my reads on the players than before. Hopefully someone else other than us can contribute more before EoD

[ikarusdk]

Actually if someone has to die D1 I am forced to do

-vote oliverz144

for now as I will be asleep for the next 8 hours.
Hopefully he does come back with a good defense because my death as a townie will have been less damaging than that of his as he is more experienced than me. You could try to pivot off of me but seeing as we are only barely the majority I don't think Mafia will let that happen. Good night

Good night mr fish

[FM-Mabel Pines]

-vote unvote

Ugh, could it really just be stealth + ikarus?

Don't really care about how wolfy people will think I am - I want to be right and I think we might be in a stealth + 1 game

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Actually

I don't think ikarus has the mettle to stare down his awol teammate at L-1 and defend him off of weak meta

I don't think Oliver / ikarus is ever a team so that means it's stealth + ikarus / Oliver or maaaybe trout

[FM-Mabel Pines]

At least one town is going to be a dumb dumb and vote me for this but I care more about being right here than living to day 2

-vote stealthbomber16

[FM-Mabel Pines]

With trout not here and Oliver awol though I think we just lose for not having enough votes

[ikarusdk]

Back momentarily.

Oliver - Would he be more comfortable to go awol if he was town or scum? Would he be comfortable knowing that he deserted his teammate in a FM? or Would he be comfortable knowing that a false lynch without his input this game would result in 2 scum v 3 town scenario? Which would be more likely? I lean towards the latter. Since Oliver has been in FM for some time, I don't believe he would just sign up, leave 3 comments and leave the game if he was scum. This is pretty weak at best though.

SB - I need more of his input to read him better, him not coming back to play at this stage might be to leave him as 'unreadable' to more new players like me.

Trout - With all jokes aside, I kind of town read him at this stage, although my initial feeling towards Trout still lingers. His willingness to vote off Oliver based on his inactivity makes sense, but at the same time, I don't think we need to kill anyone day 1, although with Oliver voting Trout, Trout IS forced to vote Oliver or another person due to game set up.

Mabel -

Actually

I don't think ikarus has the mettle to stare down his awol teammate at L-1 and defend him off of weak meta

I don't think Oliver / ikarus is ever a team so that means it's stealth + ikarus / Oliver or maaaybe trout

If we HAVE TO vote day 1, I'm going to be voting Mabel. I was being quite open in my posts and therefore letting myself easier to be townread. Mabel is suspicious of me and has been pushing for SB and lowkey suggesting I might be scum.

At least one town is going to be a dumb dumb and vote me for this but I care more about being right here than living to day 2

-vote stealthbomber16

Because of that, following Mabel's posts and I vote Mabel not SB here, this would highlight me as SB/ika team as Mabel suggested in her posts. If we mislynch someone other than Mabel/SB today, everyone has 10 reasons to suspect I am teaming with SB.

If Mabel is lynched and flips town, I am death tunneling on SB.

[ikarusdk]

If Oliver was scum, maybe they could've arranged it so Mabel pushes for Oliver to be easily lynched (I understand bussing is the term here?) because people will be more likely to lynch an AWOL rather than a vocal and active player? If this was successful and Oliver flips scum, Mabel could be seen as more or less a town.

This could work with Mabel/SB too.

[ikarusdk]

Could you explain why you scum read me other than that I am one of the polarized players here?

[ikarusdk]

I'm giving Oliver a benefit of a doubt here. If Oliver was to come back, I am not voting Oliver. If he isn't then I guess there's no point in keeping him alive.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Why Trout and Ikarus are not w/w

This would be Trout's first game and Ikarus's second game.


Early on Trout voted me:

-vote FM-Mabel Pines

Ikarus then followed the vote up a little bit later in response to... me townreading Oliver?
It's actually not entirely clear, but it seems to be in response to me townreading Oliver.

What makes you to townread Oliver based on what he said? He literally said nothing of importance.

-vote FM-Mable Pines

Trout then response rather aggressively towards Ikarus in response to the vote

a bit WEIRDT that you jumped on the wagon against Mable, without justifying it WHATSOEVER. Just Saying
not trynna be Passive Aggressive
because we wouldn't want That, would we

idk man, if i were you and what you say you are i woulda tried pushing me at this point. odd how passively you're reacting to all this, almost as if you know you know only one other person here will ever have your back in whatever kind of defense you're trying to make here

There's pretty substantive pressure coming from Trout applied on Ikarus here - and as this is the first real conflict of the game

I am a cautious type but I don't mind people having something against me. Because I am still new at this, I will be thinking a lot about what people say, and I am going to be speaking my mind about what I think is happening from my perspective. If people agree with me or disagree with me, then that's how it is.

In terms of my passiveness, I can't help it. This is my second FM game after all. But I don't see why I should be any different to how I react because I am just responding to your questions and I think those are some fair points so I'm not gonna get upset. I think you are just figuring me out as a player.



At this point, it is 2.30am in New Zealand and I was just watching a late night movie with my wife. I just had this page open in the background on my PC. But I am going to sleep now so I'll check this again in the morning.


My vote will stay until Mabel can say something about the sheriff claim.

Ikarus also continues to respond to Trout - and you can read it for yourself but

This kind of w/w theater on the first page with two new wolves involved in response to one player following suit of the first player's vote it's...


Well, first of all that kind of paranoia is a very townie look for Trout, but it most definitely makes these two not w/w - it's just so over the top and if these two are w/w then wow that was professionally done, massive props to the both of them. But I don't think that's the case, I think they're never w/w

[ikarusdk]

I don't believe Trout/Oliver being a thing here

Oliver votes Trout and goes AWOL
Trout is more or less forced to vote off Oliver

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Why Trout and Oliver are not w/w


There's not a whole lot more to this other than the fact that oliver opened the game with a vote park on Trout and then went AWOL.

Trout has in response been more than willing to push oliver on multiple occassions.

If these two are w/w then they just agreed as soon as the game started to hellbus each other - and while that's certainly possible, it's really not what I would expect from oliver knowing what I know about oliver + a brand new player.

I think it's pretty darn close to clearing the pairing as not w/w together

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Why Ikarus and Oliver are not w/w

So this one is more subtle, but after re-reading the thread I noticed some things.

First - I said that oliver was probably the towniest person in the game

oliver is the towniest player in the game right now


ikar is probably the scummiest although stealth not responding to a question that was posted only 2 minutes after his post is concerning. He might have just left the thread right after posting though given how dead the game is, but still, meh.

Trout has been pretty much completely NAI and I doubt he'll do anything AI this game.

In response to that ikarus had a series of posts that concluded in voting me because I was townreading oliver aftter "he literally said nothing of importance"

What makes you to townread Oliver based on what he said? He literally said nothing of importance.

-vote FM-Mable Pines

That already would be a really weird and kind of unpairing interaction between oliver and ikarus - why would ikarus be fighting against someone townreading his teammate as the "towniest person in the game" it seems like he's trying to discredit the read rather than support it.


And to be clear - he absolutely has that as his reason for the vote - as he later claims

I justified my reasoning on Mabel vote before and after, maybe I didn't make my self clear.

His justification for the vote was because I thought oliver was the towniest person in the game at that time.


So then the game goes on with it looking like both Trout and I are going to end on Oliver, with an Oliver elimination being pretty likely, ikarus makes this post:

I would like Varcron to come back before EoD and lead us to victory.

Varcron - sheriff
Oliver - completely different to how he played in warcraft where he was scum.
StealthBomber - I feel SB is playing exactly how he played in Warcraft, with less activity due to being busy.
Trout
Mabel

Now - I'll dig into this post more later - but this would be a super bold play for a w/w ikarus/oliver team to do!
Oliver is staring down the barrel of a single vote away from being chopped and ikarus puts oliver as his literal highest townread!!
Like, technically he has Varcron higher, but Varcron is the named town, so that doesn't count.

Putting your teammate who is about to be eliminated as the second highest townread is so bold! It would make him look so bad and paired with oliver after the elimination! And that's why I don't think an oliver/ikarus team can really exist - since I don't think that ikarus would have the mettle to do that in his very first game wolfing FM.

I don't think he would think to just set his AWOL soon-to-be-eliminated teammate as his top townread for vague meta reasons that don't really hold up.

It just doesn't make sense

[FM-Mabel Pines]

With those three anti-pairings, from my point of view, stealth is always mafia.


If I get eliminated you all have to turbo kill stealth, and if you don't I will shame you after the game for being bad.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

So who do I think is most likely stealth's teammate?


I think it's actually probably ikarus here.


Not because of any association with stealth though - just because he's done a few independently wolfy things

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Why I think Ikarus is also a wolf



Let's go back to the Ikarus-oliver interaction.

At the start of the game Ikarus opened things up by scumreading me for having oliver as my top townread after oliver "had done basically nothing"

At that point in the game oliver looked safe, no one was pushing him, a wolf ikarus could easily be getting nervous about having people locked into a towncore so early so some light discrediting of the read could be healthy.

But then later on after oliver is looking to be the surefire elimination with votes on him from two towns in me + Trout - Ikarus switches from oliver "has done basically nothing" to

I would like Varcron to come back before EoD and lead us to victory.

Varcron - sheriff
Oliver - completely different to how he played in warcraft where he was scum.
StealthBomber - I feel SB is playing exactly how he played in Warcraft, with less activity due to being busy.
Trout
Mabel

Oliver is "completely different to how he played in warcraft where he was scum."


This to me looks like scum trying to position themselves to look good after the first miselimination to take home the win on the next day.




I think he also TMI's oliver as town here off of this. It's a weird progression and a wolfy sort of inconsistency


And to clarify what a wolfy inconsistency is vs a townie one - a wolfy one is one that is done with agenda. The agenda here is clear - ikarus wants to look better after oliver flips town whereas before he didn't want someone being towncored and boxing wolves in. Often wolfy agendas are ones that are done where a player is inconsistent in a way that they're trying to make themselves look better.

Contrast that to a townie inconsistency which is brought about by a player just trying to solve the game and so they might double back on a read.





Now - granted, this isn't a surefire bet - I think Stealth + Oliver still could have some equity here - but I think stealth has kind of TMI'd Oliver as town here as well with his reluctance to turn against him despite thread sentiment so heavily crashing against oliver.


Like if Oliver is a wolf and Stealth sees the thread coming down on him, it's probably clearing for me and clearing for trout, and Stealth just gets boxed in. But I don't really sense any of that urgency to look good off of a wolf oliver flip and think he's actually just fine with the status quo of oliver flipping and has positioned himself in order to look good off of that - ikarus doing the same makes me think oliver is just town and Ikarus + Stealth are the wolves

[FM-Mabel Pines]

@ikarusdk

You're free to talk to me - maybe I'm wrong about you and the team is actually still just oliver + stealth - I'm very good at re-evaluation in the light of new information.


Or maybe you're seeing some wolf equity in Trout that I'm not seeing - you had Trout as one of your top scumreads, but why? I really don't see the scum equity there, could you explain that to me?

[FM-Mabel Pines]

And @Varcron

If I'm right then I think you will be the only other town to check in before EoD - so please talk to me before you vote - you've had a history of not reading me correctly lol


I at the very least want you to promise to respect my legacy where if I get chopped you'll strongarm in a Stealth chop on the next day.

And then ikarus should probably die in F3 after that I think, but it's less clear who the second wolf would be. Hopefully that could become more clear as time goes on. If I had to bet the game on it now though, I'd bet Ikarus

Especially, especially, especially with the way that he's angling himself here to protect stealth and try to push me alongside stealth

[FM-Mabel Pines]

Another thing that I noticed about stealth is that he's actually lowkey highkey thread spewed wolf.


This read is only applicable from my POV - but you all, please please please, pay attention to it if I do get chopped -


If stealth were town, and I know I'm town, and Varcron is named town, then that means there would be two wolves among Trout, Oliver, Ikarus -

and yet both Ikarus and Trout have been posting a bunch and Stealth has been kind of being not super active nor townie - and he's catching no scumreads from anyone other than me.

That's a classic wolf threadspew tell right there - why would the wolves just be perfectly content with leaving stealth alone? Especially when they've seen a vocal townie in my slot butting heads with him?

Why not try to stick stealth in a PoE?



The answer is because there aren't two wolves among Trout / Oliver / Ikarus - there's only one.

So from my POV that means Stealth is just a wolf.



You all obviously don't have my POV - but you should be able to reach the conclusion that there's always a wolf between me and stealth.

So if I ever get mischopped, I want you all to remember this post and realize that it's outting for stealth and then immediately chop him afterwards. I'm willing to wager the game on it at this point

[Stealthbomber16]

There's an hour left in the day. I will be backreading for as long as I can but I don't know when I will have to leave thread.

[Stealthbomber16]

First thought is that I'm not seeing any oli posts and the traction there has completely jumped off so I'm really leaning towards chopping there today.

[Stealthbomber16]

-vote oliverz144

I think this is the best chance of a hit at this point.

Stealth is a pretty good target too, but I'd pretty much always kill oliver day 1 over stealth when they're of equal scumminess.

I have some concerns with ikar but I can see some glimpses of towny thought there.

Would not kill Trout today. Varc is the sheriff.

I do take issue with this post and then Mabel switching votes off of oli and onto me when oli has made no new posts.

Oliver at this point is barely playing the game. That's well within his wolf range eg American flag Nightless

Maybe he comes back, maybe he doesn't, but as of right now I'm seeing pretty solid woof equity there that also has a consolation prize of trimming a dead weight town that's not playing when we miss

Also fmpov I know for a fact that you wanting to kill me over Oliver is aggressively anti-town
At best Oliver is a woof and at worst I'm better to be kept alive as town. You can deduce that too, so I want to hear from you why you think Oliver isn't the best chop

I'm not calling you scum, I'm asking you questions. I even explained that POV in my post I posted at the same time as this one.

If you're town don't rehash election day where we were both town. I'm asking you for reasons, don't get caught up on OMGUS!

I took no issue with your reaction test vote on varcron. And I don't plan on voting you today at all, you're the least polarized player on this list other than me and I don't want to make that gamble when I know for a fact that there is a wolf among the more polarized set of (trout, ikar, Oliver)

And just looking at those 3- wow Oliver looks really bad

There's a LOT of issues with the logic of making this series of posts and then flipping onto me when nothing has changed about oli's position.

I'm lost on whether or not this is you scumpainting me because I actually really like this post:

@Stealthbomber16

If there's a single post you read, it should be this one:


Going into this game I was very much hoping for a townrand as there are a lot of polarized players in this playerlist that I thought would give town good chances to win. I was also hoping that either you or Varcron randed the sheriff as I think you two are the least polarized players on this list other than me. And both of those things happened! Basically the dream rand!

So now some facts that I think we can both agree on:
- You are not a polarized player - you have a history of snowing towns as wolf and the expectation that you can be read easily day 1 is just false, especially in a game with such minimal content as this one
- I am not a polarized player - literally the best players in the world were not able to correctly deduce my alignment at any rate above rand, the expectation that you can read me easily day 1 is just false, especially in a game with such minimal content as this one
- From both of our town POVs there is at least one wolf among (Ikarus, Trout, Oliver)
- That same trio consists of a player in their first game, a player in their second game, and oliver who is relatively polarized. New players also are much more polarized than experienced players.


So I deduced all of these things - and I assumed you would deduce them as well. And I assumed you would therefore converge on a similar strategy as me if you are town:
1) Find the wolf among (Ikarus, Trout, Oliver)
2) Solve Stealth only after the wolf among those three is found (or from your POV you would solve me only after the first wolf is found)

This works especially well because there is no nightkill so you'll be alive until the end.


The big reason I've been wary about you is that it seems that you've not actually come to these conclusions - and that's concerning to me because I believe a scum~Stealth would be more opportunistic, wouldn't be thinking like this, and would try to push me out early. That's not to say that you're lock scum for scumreading me. I've seen you mis-tunnel on you before, just as you've seen me mis-tunnel on you before.

And maybe you've just not had the time to really think deeply about the game and haven't reached these same conclusions as a result.

But now with all that said - who do you think is most likely wolf among those three? And why?

From your POV there mechanically has to be at least one wolf among those three, so who do you think it is?

I think there's a very good case for it not being Trout.
And a middling but still existent case for it not being ikarus.
Yes?

Because your logic here is completely sound- keep the strong player alive while you solve the players you're less familiar with, then go back and revisit the strong player when you have more reads. But then you completely violate this later. So my problem is that you make some good points from town POV, and then break the POV by voting me when oli has only gotten worse throughout the day. It's looking really likely that the team is oli/mabel fmpov.

I will say that if you did actually think all of that out beforehand then you do a lot more game theory than I do.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I stg - if Varcron doesn't even come back

[Stealthbomber16]

I wish I could stay for longer. I'm not solid enough on my mabel read to leave a vote there but I do think that

-vote oliverz144

is a good halfway point because it works with my worldview and is much safer.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

I do take issue with this post and then Mabel switching votes off of oli and onto me when oli has made no new posts.




There's a LOT of issues with the logic of making this series of posts and then flipping onto me when nothing has changed about oli's position.

I'm lost on whether or not this is you scumpainting me because I actually really like this post:


Because your logic here is completely sound- keep the strong player alive while you solve the players you're less familiar with, then go back and revisit the strong player when you have more reads. But then you completely violate this later. So my problem is that you make some good points from town POV, and then break the POV by voting me when oli has only gotten worse throughout the day. It's looking really likely that the team is oli/mabel fmpov.

I will say that if you did actually think all of that out beforehand then you do a lot more game theory than I do.

I explained all the antipairings - the thing that did it in was that I realized that ikarus and oliver just doesn't make sense as a team either and so that means that you are pretty much always a wolf.


If you are town then it's pretty critical for you to help me see which antipairing I'm misclearing

[FM-Mabel Pines]

(There is so much pain in this dance - where is everyone at EoD 😭😭😭 )

[ikarusdk]

I only just got back. I see only SB had interaction with Mabel at EoD......

I feel Mabel's pain.

I am thrown off by SB's vote on Oliver. Aside from myself, Oliver is more likely to be town than Trout.

Holy crap this is hard. I am leaning towards Mabel/SB right now.

[ikarusdk]

Less than 15 min to lock my vote in... and there's a lot of information from Mabel..

[ikarusdk]

-vote FM-Mabel Pines

Since I am town, from my perspective it is going to be either Mabel or SB and their teammate Oliver or Trout. Or on a less likely scenario, Mabel/SB throwing each other under the bus.
I wish I didn't have to leave an hour ago, and I hope I am right, but if I am wrong, I am death tunneling on SB.

Mabel, if you are certain I am scum, why aren't you voting for me, rather than SB who you think might be scum.

[ikarusdk]

We need Varcron's last minute input and vote here.

[FM-Mabel Pines]

-vote FM-Mabel Pines

Since I am town, from my perspective it is going to be either Mabel or SB and their teammate Oliver or Trout. Or on a less likely scenario, Mabel/SB throwing each other under the bus.
I wish I didn't have to leave an hour ago, and I hope I am right, but if I am wrong, I am death tunneling on SB.

Mabel, if you are certain I am scum, why aren't you voting for me, rather than SB who you think might be scum.

There's no one else here to vote with you if you think it's me + Stealth, then vote stealth with me right now. Otherwise you're just throwing away your vote here