S-FM 316 : The Fooling Party

[MattZed]

Because y'all seem to like suspect lists: (from most suspect to least, gaps indicate the ones above are much higher on my list than the ones below)

Frinckles
deathworlds

Dark Magician

Helz
Unknown1234
Naz
Frostbyte

Bakermir
Renegade

MartinGG99

yzb25

[Helz]

Whatever the DH and alleged locksmith believed N1 has nothing to do with what *I* believe. And the theory would be that you wanted to switch, but failed. (also possible that you're holding onto Switcher until it's clear who's going to win, then switch to that side and out the new Switcher)

We also don't even know they went on you! Even believing EVERYONE'S claims so far, it's also perfectly possible that the Locksmith and DH both went for Martin.

For Switcher, the theory would be that you wanted to switch, but failed. (also possible that you're holding onto Switcher until it's clear who's going to win, then switch to that side and out the new Switcher)

There's really no point to your line of suggestion. Night actions maybe targeting you doesn't mean you're a scientist.

The only possible reason a DragonHead would have targeted Frinckles would be to avoid crossfire on his own team imo. Between a claimed Bus Driver and a claimed Scientist the BD is an active threat to the Triad while the Scientist actually helps them win. It makes no sense to assume Frinckles was targeted over Martin to me.

As half-awake Matt, (I really shouldn't have stayed up for the start of D2) I'm really not a fan of the "let's yeet DM or DW for information" take, and I'm disappointed by the lack of imagination here.

WHY DOES EVERYONE TRUST THAT FRINCKLES'S TARGET WASN'T ALTERED BY AN OPERATOR/WITCH?

But we're 7v4v1 right now. Misyeet is 6v4v1, which is 5v4v1 with a nightkill on town. If we misyeet today, we could lose our majority. I'm not up for yeeting someone just to possibly confirm someone else. (and it's not even a good confirm... Naz could well be a Spy)

I'm *very* interested to hear what DM and DW have to say for themselves, but I'd sooner yeet someone with scummy behavior (Frinckles) than yeeting someone for information.

I suppose I would be more worried about it if I had town read either of the two slots who are at risk here. Or if really anyone town read either slot for that matter. Lol

Even without these night action reveals either of those players could have easily ended up as the D2 lynch anyways.

I simply think its most likely one of them is the switcher and their lynch gives us the most information while also clearing a slot the majority of players in the game scum read. I am not sure I would be willing to change my mind on that but your welcome to try if you would like. Am I just totally missing something you are seeing?

[MartinGG99]

WHY DOES EVERYONE TRUST THAT FRINCKLES'S TARGET WASN'T ALTERED BY AN OPERATOR/WITCH?

I somewhat doubt a witch in a game with 2 busdrivers.

Witch can't affect roles with actions that target more than 1 person, meaning they would be unable to affect 2 TPR's effectively.

Though they can mess with the switcher if they're lucky; 2/3rds chance they control/manipulate the 1st or 3rd ability (which don't target more than 1 person).

[naz]

@Nas Just to be clear are you claiming detective or are you claiming lookout?

I will also point out that Triad has a role that tracks (Vanguard) so even if Nas information is accurate he is not mechanically confirmed town.

Detective and I'm sad now bc I didnt know triad had a same role as me qq

WHY DOES EVERYONE TRUST THAT FRINCKLES'S TARGET WASN'T ALTERED BY AN OPERATOR/WITCH?

I actually brought this up already lul post 1123

DM has been switcher once this game.

idk why i have to believe u are a scientist

[MattZed]

If Naz is telling the truth AND saw the DM visited DW last night, (not 100% confirmed due to possible Witch/Operator) then DM cannot be the Switcher. (unless... @Auwt , if a Switcher tries to swap with a Butler, will this show up as a visit?)

If Naz is lying, Naz basically has to be scum.

I'm still trying to find some form of pseudo-mechanical solve, but I'm not seeing it yet.

[MartinGG99]

Though the thought of an operator has crossed my mind.

I just haven't seen any evidence for it unless the Locksmith/Moulder didn't guard me or Frinckles.

[Helz]

Detective and I'm sad now bc I didnt know triad had a same role as me qq

Regardless there is no world where you should be even considered as a lynch until the mid/late game. If your town you will most likely turn up dead at some point after this.

[MattZed]

The only possible reason a DragonHead would have targeted Frinckles would be to avoid crossfire on his own team imo. Between a claimed Bus Driver and a claimed Scientist the BD is an active threat to the Triad while the Scientist actually helps them win. It makes no sense to assume Frinckles was targeted over Martin to me.

I suppose I would be more worried about it if I had town read either of the two slots who are at risk here. Or if really anyone town read either slot for that matter. Lol

Even without these night action reveals either of those players could have easily ended up as the D2 lynch anyways.

I simply think its most likely one of them is the switcher and their lynch gives us the most information while also clearing a slot the majority of players in the game scum read. I am not sure I would be willing to change my mind on that but your welcome to try if you would like. Am I just totally missing something you are seeing?

The short version of my response: WIFOM

The long form: They could very well have thought Martin was lying, and thus gone for the only other TPR claimer. We don't even know who the DH shot. (although we're imagining it's either Frinckles or Martin, because supposedly one of them was locked)

btw, I'm pretty sure @yzb25 townreads DM, or at least doesn't scumread him.

I somewhat doubt a witch in a game with 2 busdrivers.

This is some truly terrible speculation. (friendly reminder that I'm not saying *you're* terrible, just this idea) The WHOLE PREMISE of this setup is things get swapped around. But to be clear, I'm saying we don't know Scientist-Frinckles wasn't witch'd.

BTW, I would like to confess I thought Operator just a Triad BD. While they still could interfere with a Scientist, my previous thoughts about how might not make as much sense because of my old false understanding.

[Helz]

I'm still trying to find some form of pseudo-mechanical solve, but I'm not seeing it yet.

I do not understand why you are so hung up on the wild potentials. The evidence we have points to this story:

Dark Magician rolled Switcher
Frinckles rolled Scientist
Naz rolled Detective/Vanguard

Dark Magician targeted Deathworlds and passed him Switcher
Frinckles checked Dark Magician and saw he had it 1 time
Naz watched Dark Magician and saw him target Deathworlds

Throw in that a Locksmith/Moulder exists (I feel locksmith is more likely given the targets) and MartinGG claims Busdriver and thats the game state. Everything is reasonable and I dont see any 'Why the hell would you target this player' or 'crazy gambit fake claim' potential.

I am just not seeing what you are hung up on Matt.. It looks simple to me and the cost/benefit for the slots were looking at lynching feels good. Its a low risk high reward position imo.

[Frinckles]

lol

[Unknown1234]

I don’t really understand Matt’s read list, but I feel like it’s because he’s so focused on Frinckles I’m genuinely not seeing your reads change in the thread.

[MattZed]

Let me try a different angle:

We have 5 Town Randoms and 2 Citizens left. Of those roles, we've had 3 claims:
Scientist (Frinckles)
Bus Driver (MartinGG99)
Detective (Naz)

It also seems quite likely that we have a Locksmith. (why would a Moulder act when it's most likely to stop a NK?)

It doesn't seem like we have a Shopkeeper, given how they haven't spoken up about "Hey, I blocked someone, maybe they're DH."

I don't think the DH was stopped by a War Surgeon last night. (they really should have picked Bodyguard, not heal)

I can't say much about Vig/Mayor/Butler, but that could plausibly complete our set if everyone has been truthful.

[Frinckles]

I don’t really understand Matt’s read list, but I feel like it’s because he’s so focused on Frinckles I’m genuinely not seeing your reads change in the thread.

He's lost town and it's hilarious

[Helz]

We don't even know who the DH shot.

Very true. I considered the potential for a corrupted citizen being attacked. They are night immune N1 and if I was a host I would feel they would fit very nicely given the potential for Triad cross attacks.

I really dont think Frinckles was the target though.

[FrostByte]

GO READ THE FUCKING SETUP. I'M NOT GONNA LISTEN TO A SINGLE OTHER BULLSHIT EXCUSE ABOUT NOT KNOWING THE SETUP
Discussing the setup is great. Trying to sway people by claiming you didn't know the setup and might've acted differently if you had is absolutely not.

We are adults. We're not children. We can all presumably read well enough to sign up for this game so we can all presumably read well enough to at least read the setup once through.

[Frinckles]

Very true. I considered the potential for a corrupted citizen being attacked. They are night immune N1 and if I was a host I would feel they would fit very nicely given the potential for Triad cross attacks.

I really dont think Frinckles was the target though.

Why not? Who is the most plausible target?

I claimed scientist d1
Martin claimed bd
Bd can switch
No kill
??

[MattZed]

I do not understand why you are so hung up on the wild potentials. The evidence we have points to this story:

Dark Magician rolled Switcher
Frinckles rolled Scientist
Naz rolled Detective/Vanguard

Dark Magician targeted Deathworlds and passed him Switcher
Frinckles checked Dark Magician and saw he had it 1 time
Naz watched Dark Magician and saw him target Deathworlds

Throw in that a Locksmith/Moulder exists (I feel locksmith is more likely given the targets) and MartinGG claims Busdriver and thats the game state. Everything is reasonable and I dont see any 'Why the hell would you target this player' or 'crazy gambit fake claim' potential.

I am just not seeing what you are hung up on Matt.. It looks simple to me and the cost/benefit for the slots were looking at lynching feels good. Its a low risk high reward position imo.

An operator/witch messing with a Scientist claim isn't crazy at all. DM not outing DW feels really weird, and Frinckles has just plain been scummy. There's a lot that doesn't add up.

[FrostByte]

Detective and I'm sad now bc I didnt know triad had a same role as me qq


I actually brought this up already lul post 1123


idk why i have to believe u are a scientist

Again, have you ever played forum mafia before?

I actually want an answer.

[Frinckles]

Again, have you ever played forum mafia before?

I actually want an answer.

Yes she has.

[FrostByte]

Yes she has.

I didn't ask you.

[Frinckles]

Helz quietly trying to get a friend request is spooky

[Frinckles]

I didn't ask you.

But its true.

[Helz]

Why not? Who is the most plausible target?

I claimed scientist d1
Martin claimed bd
Bd can switch
No kill
??

I am just saying that your claimed role (Scientist) is the one and only town role that benifits scum. They need you to track down that switcher so they can get him off the board. Literally a citizen would be a better kill than you.

Hitting a claimed BD does make sense to me especially given the amount of D1 discussion suggesting Bus Drivers do nothing early game. Other than that the kill would have made sense to target someone thats widely town read to shut them up.

I just think that you specifically would have been the absolute worst N1 target.

[Frinckles]

I am just saying that your claimed role (Scientist) is the one and only town role that benifits scum. They need you to track down that switcher so they can get him off the board. Literally a citizen would be a better kill than you.

Hitting a claimed BD does make sense to me especially given the amount of D1 discussion suggesting Bus Drivers do nothing early game. Other than that the kill would have made sense to target someone thats widely town read to shut them up.

I just think that you specifically would have been the absolute worst N1 target.

"I'm the dragonhead, I guess I should shoot this bus driver"
"Woops a triad died instead"
Yeah, no that's stupid

[Frinckles]

"Lets kill the hardclaimed scientist"
"Uh oh I goofed and got locked out of his house"
That makes sense.

[Helz]

An operator/witch messing with a Scientist claim isn't crazy at all. DM not outing DW feels really weird, and Frinckles has just plain been scummy. There's a lot that doesn't add up.

Oh I 100% agree with you there. I just do not see a situation where him faking a claim like this works in his favor.

I personally feel Dark Magician and Deathworlds lack of response could point to them being Frozen or even going silent Lolcat.

[MattZed]

"I'm the dragonhead, I guess I should shoot this bus driver"
"Woops a triad died instead"
Yeah, no that's stupid

If bus driver doesn't self-swap, they very well could die.

If they do self-swap, then there's a decent chance the person they swap with is also town.

It's really not the worst strategy out there.

[Frinckles]

It does not take many steps to put yourself in the dragonheads shoes.

[Unknown1234]

I feel like a no-kill almost makes the most sense.

[Frinckles]

If bus driver doesn't self-swap, they very well could die.

If they do self-swap, then there's a decent chance the person they swap with is also town.

It's really not the worst strategy out there.

Any mafia taking a swipe at a BD has balls of steel.

And as BD I always swap with a scumread so idk wtf you're talking about

[Renegade]

GO READ THE FUCKING SETUP. I'M NOT GONNA LISTEN TO A SINGLE OTHER BULLSHIT EXCUSE ABOUT NOT KNOWING THE SETUP
Discussing the setup is great. Trying to sway people by claiming you didn't know the setup and might've acted differently if you had is absolutely not.

We are adults. We're not children. We can all presumably read well enough to sign up for this game so we can all presumably read well enough to at least read the setup once through.

lol

[MattZed]

It does not take many steps to put yourself in the dragonheads shoes.

...you're essentially arguing the DH didn't shoot you or Martin, which completely runs against the current theory.

If the DH thinks you both are town and decides to NOT shoot at one of you, he has 9 other targets, and he thinks 3 of them are triad. Those aren't especially nice odds.

But if he shoots at one of you, he only has to worry about TPRs that may not exist messing him up.

[Helz]

"I'm the dragonhead, I guess I should shoot this bus driver"
"Woops a triad died instead"
Yeah, no that's stupid

I disagree. There is absolutely nothing that makes it mechanically more likely for a BD to swap themselves than to swap someone else. Its just WIFOM and player preference. I think your putting your own bias into how you assume the DH would play.

It is curious that you hold this view so strongly when there does not seem to be any real reason for it though.

[Frinckles]

I feel like a no-kill almost makes the most sense.

Unknown I'm gonna occam's razor the fuck out of this and you should do it too.

[MattZed]

Any mafia taking a swipe at a BD has balls of steel.

And as BD I always swap with a scumread so idk wtf you're talking about

What are the odds the BD's N1 scumread is scum?

[Helz]

I feel like a no-kill almost makes the most sense.

I was waiting for someone to mention that.

That would have probably been my play if I was the DH. No kill avoids cross fire potential and also works to frame someone if there was an escort in play.

[Frinckles]

...you're essentially arguing the DH didn't shoot you or Martin, which completely runs against the current theory.

If the DH thinks you both are town and decides to NOT shoot at one of you, he has 9 other targets, and he thinks 3 of them are triad. Those aren't especially nice odds.

But if he shoots at one of you, he only has to worry about TPRs that may not exist messing him up.

You are so fucking lost it's ridiculous. I actually think you're a cool person from what I've seen but there is no way we are solving this game together. I wish you luck, no sarcasm.

[Frinckles]

I was waiting for someone to mention that.

That would have probably been my play if I was the DH. No kill avoids cross fire potential and also works to frame someone if there was an escort in play.

I mentioned it twice already.

[Frinckles]

I feel like a no-kill almost makes the most sense.

It does if Martin hadn't given us a locksmith.

Moulder makes 0 sense.

[MattZed]

I was waiting for someone to mention that.

That would have probably been my play if I was the DH. No kill avoids cross fire potential and also works to frame someone if there was an escort in play.

Okay COME ON NOW.

The person an escort frames is more likely to be Triad than the person you'd shoot. (the escort has a 4/11 chance of randomly picking triad, DH has a 3/11 chance of randomly shooting triad, and you don't even know an escort exists)

Sure, you COULD crossfire, but there's a better chance you don't. You have to kill the town somehow. When you're night-killing, you're in control. For a yeet, not so much.

It's not the optimal play by any means. Not shooting is getting into "big brain plays" territory.

[Helz]

I mentioned it twice already.

I suppose that shows how loose I am playing this one : P

How do you feel about Renegade if you dont mind me asking?

[Unknown1234]

MattZed I never would have guessed deathworlds was your #2 scum-read if you hadn't said so in your suspects list... Why do you seem to have no comments on their slot despite saying that Frinckles role doesn't make either DM or DW scum?

I genuinely feel like you're playing a 3 person FM game and you're trying to convince that one person to vote the other one.

[FrostByte]

"I'm the dragonhead, I guess I should shoot this bus driver"
"Woops a triad died instead"
Yeah, no that's stupid

"Lets kill the hardclaimed scientist"
"Uh oh I goofed and got locked out of his house"
That makes sense.

LMFAO

[FrostByte]

lol

it could've been WIFOM but figured I'd just make everyone read that big red warning

[Frinckles]

I suppose that shows how loose I am playing this one : P

How do you feel about Renegade if you dont mind me asking?

so you remember my list?

I just stuck you and ren together in the middle lul

[MattZed]

You are so fucking lost it's ridiculous. I actually think you're a cool person from what I've seen but there is no way we are solving this game together. I wish you luck, no sarcasm.

The only reason I'm not making an active case on you is because I'm lazy and I think at least one of DM/DW is going to come in here with information that mechanically determines a yeet. The case on you can probably wait for my N2 LW. You're still my top scumread, which is why my vote is parked on you.

That said, I do enjoy playing with you and I wish you good luck. I think you're playing a solid scum game and mostly getting away with it. We'll see if the town believes you or me if it gets to that point.

[Frinckles]

LMFAO

Sorry I wrote a drake meme lol

[Helz]

Okay COME ON NOW.

The person an escort frames is more likely to be Triad than the person you'd shoot. (the escort has a 4/11 chance of randomly picking triad, DH has a 3/11 chance of randomly shooting triad, and you don't even know an escort exists)

Sure, you COULD crossfire, but there's a better chance you don't. You have to kill the town somehow. When you're night-killing, you're in control. For a yeet, not so much.

It's not the optimal play by any means. Not shooting is getting into "big brain plays" territory.

Yeah, but it potentially outs a TPR or even two while setting up for a potential TvT day and some people are comfortable driving lynches. A role blocked player with a no kill is not certain to get pushed through at all. I do recognize I play the game a bit differently than most though.

[MattZed]

MattZed I never would have guessed deathworlds was your #2 scum-read if you hadn't said so in your suspects list... Why do you seem to have no comments on their slot despite saying that Frinckles role doesn't make either DM or DW scum?

I genuinely feel like you're playing a 3 person FM game and you're trying to convince that one person to vote the other one.

DW hammering early really rubs me the wrong way, and I can't ignore the claimed night actions so far.

That's, like, 3 pieces of information, but it's pretty damning information. DW is my #2 scumread largely mechanically, and when he gets his ass in here I think it will greatly influence my thinking.

[MattZed]

To be frank, I really suspect Helz is a Butler with me as his confirmed town. We've had our mind melds and disagreements, but he's been very... gentle with me on them. Really wants to hear what I'm thinking and get on board. Could be attempting pocketing, could just be town that genuinely believes I'm town and wants to work with me, but I really feel he KNOWS for a fact I'm town.

This idea (along with what I know my role to be) has been factoring into my calculations of what roles/alignments make sense, and I don't see much reason to hold back on this idea anymore.