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Thread: S-FM Texorami

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    S-FM Texorami

    S-FM Texorami (5p)

    Cowboys
    Cowboy
    Cowboy
    Cowboy
    Cowboy
    Bandits
    Gunslinger

    Texorami is an abode for gamblers, whores and drunkards. Criminals and cowboys flock to this sun-burnt city on the coast. Some seek their fortune, others carnal desire.

    The Town is controlled by a corrupt sheriff, who abuses the law for his own ends. He regularly puts bounties on townsmen and travellers who interfere with his plans. His will, when not carried out by the populace through lynchings, is carried out by his mysterious assassin.

    Four cowboys have found themselves in the unenviable situation of being a thorn in the sheriff's side, but are unable to skip town, and are forced to wait it out until they can deal with the sheriff's assassin.

    Will our ragged band of travellers defeat the Sheriff and kill his assassin before they fall victim to them? Or will the crooks prevail once more?


    Rolecards


    Cowboy

    No special abilities.
    Wincon: Eliminate the Gunslinger.

    Gunslingers

    Put a bounty on a player at night.
    The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
    If the player is not lynched during the ensuing day,
    you gain one charge of a night kill.

    You can not have more than one charge at any point during the game.
    You may put a bounty on yourself.
    Wincon: Attain majority.

    Mechanics

    Lynch is plurality: the player with the highest number of votes at EoD is lynched. Ties are resolved via RNG.
    Days last 24 hours, nights last 24 hours.
    Last wills are allowed.
    Death notes are not allowed.
    No game throwing or pretending to game throw,
    no griefing, no out of game communication.
    Insults are ok if they're not overdone





    Last edited by Oberon; April 18th, 2022 at 12:00 PM.

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Ftr, I think it's unusual wincon ratio: Town needs 1 correct lynch while Mafia can need 4 or 5 mislynches; 3 or 4 if lucky I guess.
    Meanwhile the special game mechanic really only benefits Town imho, Mafia can just hope to not fuck up and seem random. (I am one of the players who believe every info is pro town)

    This setup being mostly Killess forces the Gunslinger to be Townier than almost every Towny in the game.

    Atm, neither team benefits from lynching the Bandit, the slot is irrelevant in that regard. Mafia can bus him and so gain a kill of their choice; but busing has its own information risks while eliminations are 1 for 1 and they lose that 1 vote power, so not even that might be worth it, though sometimes perhaps.


    Just random thoughts I'm having about the setup; make of em what you want or nothing at all it's ok
    Last edited by OzyWho; March 30th, 2022 at 08:17 AM.

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  8. ISO #8

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Ohh it's 1v5 not 2v6

    One of these days I'll not misread a setup lol

    Ahh, this is chill. Potential to go to D4, while with 6 players from start I imagine it's difficult to get to even 100 posts per game day. If that's how a game would go, that'd be boring, but anything can happen. I feel like something is missing here :/

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Seems straightforward enough. I think it would be better as a 6v2 with the bounty ability being factional, though: self-bountying would become a more viable tactic, and there would be enough players to have a somewhat significant activity while keeping the game small and easy to fill. This isn't a requirement in any way, though.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  11. ISO #11

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Doing the math on this 5v1, game theory optimal play leads to town winning this at least 61% of the time, which is far too high, generally you want setups in the 30-40% range since it means if town wants to win a majority of the time they have to actually make accurate reads rather than just eliminate randomly. I'll look into how the numbers work out with a 5v2 or 6v2 setup later
    Last edited by Lumi; March 30th, 2022 at 10:56 PM.

  12. ISO #12

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    Doing the math on this 5v1, game theory optimal play leads to town winning this at least 61% of the time, which is far too high, generally you want setups in the 30-40% range since it means if town wants to win a majority of the time they have to actually make accurate reads rather than just eliminate randomly. I'll look into how the numbers work out with a 5v2 or 6v2 setup later
    So doing the math on it, the theoretical (read: town just using math + randomness to eliminate rather than reads) winrates for the following scenarios are (all numbers in town winrate %):


    2 town v 1 wolf: 33.33% winrate
    3 town v 1 wolf: 45.45% winrate
    4 town v 1 wolf: 54.72% winrate
    5 town v 1 wolf: 61.17% winrate
    6 town v 1 wolf: 66.02% winrate
    7 town v 1 wolf: 69.80% winrate

    3 town v 2 wolves: 16.95% winrate
    4 town v 2 wolves: 27.49% winrate
    5 town v 2 wolves: 35.90% winrate
    6 town v 2 wolves: 42.58% winrate
    7 town v 2 wolves: 48.01% winrate


    This suggests you probably want to go with 6 town v 2 wolves as MM said and give the wolves 24/7 factional chat + a night 0 bounty ability

  13. ISO #13

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    So doing the math on it, the theoretical (read: town just using math + randomness to eliminate rather than reads) winrates for the following scenarios are (all numbers in town winrate %):


    2 town v 1 wolf: 33.33% winrate
    3 town v 1 wolf: 45.45% winrate
    4 town v 1 wolf: 54.72% winrate
    5 town v 1 wolf: 61.17% winrate
    6 town v 1 wolf: 66.02% winrate
    7 town v 1 wolf: 69.80% winrate

    3 town v 2 wolves: 16.95% winrate
    4 town v 2 wolves: 27.49% winrate
    5 town v 2 wolves: 35.90% winrate
    6 town v 2 wolves: 42.58% winrate
    7 town v 2 wolves: 48.01% winrate


    This suggests you probably want to go with 6 town v 2 wolves as MM said and give the wolves 24/7 factional chat + a night 0 bounty ability
    This would be a very neat setup, I concur. Also maths!
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    I'd change the Mafia wincon to "3 townies lynched or parity reached". That'd be fair enough for me, and less of a drag on.

    Usually, for me, any EV in range like 20-70% is playable. It's a game. And usually max D4 wouldn't be thought as too much.
    But in 6 player game, where you can probably not realistically hope for 100 posts per day, both those things change for me.
    And for me, both those things would be in perfectly playable parameters with that wincon. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    (Ftr I don't know the % change but it just feels better, how many townies does the 1 wolf have to outplay and how many lynches to survive)

    I can't imagine a game with 1 wolf being anything but pure random tbh. When I say random I mean lynches completely independent of players actual alignment in the game.
    Last edited by OzyWho; April 1st, 2022 at 02:18 AM.

  16. ISO #16

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Yeah I think there's too many townies. Will be removing one

    That being said, not sure if the argument that town win rate by random lynch should be lower than 50% is a good one. I've never seen a random lynch in a game xD

    If I host this game and people lynch randomly and end up winning, I am prepared to eat my own shoes, but I don't think that will happen.

  17. ISO #17

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    I've never seen a random lynch in a game xD
    last year i checked, a sample size of 30+ mountainous games shows that the town win rate is nearly identical to EV, so it's sort of important imho.

    But like, D6 has 50+%, quite town sided, but many have named it their favorite setup at some point (though now its out of favor seems)
    i'd say 20-80 is playable 30-70 is fine 40-60 is nearly perfect 50 is perfect, though i'd prefer 40 over 60 any day of the weel

  18. ISO #18

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    That being said, not sure if the argument that town win rate by random lynch should be lower than 50% is a good one. I've never seen a random lynch in a game xD
    Exactly the point, if town can win the majority of the time by having literally zero skill or insights and just acting randomly, then the setup is very townsided because playing intelligently will only increase their winrate further.

    That's why setups need to have a sub 50% winrate (ideally 30-40%) for town when playing randomly to give room for town to bring that winrate up when playing intelligently

  19. ISO #19

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    last year i checked, a sample size of 30+ mountainous games shows that the town win rate is nearly identical to EV, so it's sort of important imho.

    But like, D6 has 50+%, quite town sided, but many have named it their favorite setup at some point (though now its out of favor seems)
    i'd say 20-80 is playable 30-70 is fine 40-60 is nearly perfect 50 is perfect, though i'd prefer 40 over 60 any day of the weel
    I think 30-40 is ideal
    25-50 is playable
    15-70 is passable but far from ideal
    and outside of that range is just blatantly town/wolf sided

  20. ISO #20

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    I think 30-40 is ideal
    25-50 is playable
    15-70 is passable but far from ideal
    and outside of that range is just blatantly town/wolf sided
    I'd never play a 15% tbh, I could see myself playing a 70% if I'd expect the game to be fun otherwise.

    You don't think 50% is ideal? I guess only I value the social deduction and deception effect on the game as low as I do.
    If champs setup decision had a public discussion this year, I'd suggest Red Flag 15er instead of Mountainous.

  21. ISO #21

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I'd never play a 15% tbh, I could see myself playing a 70% if I'd expect the game to be fun otherwise.

    You don't think 50% is ideal? I guess only I value the social deduction and deception effect on the game as low as I do.
    If champs setup decision had a public discussion this year, I'd suggest Red Flag 15er instead of Mountainous.
    Ya, 15% might be too low, those numbers were very off-the cuff other than 30-40 being ideal.

    When I was newer to FM I used to think 50% was ideal as well, but then I made the realization that it's far from ideal since what EV project measures is town's expected winrate when they play randomly, if town can win half the time while literally not even reading the game, then that's indicative of a town-sided setup.

  22. ISO #22

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    if town can win half the time while literally not even reading the game, then that's indicative of a town-sided setup.
    As opposed to Wolf sided setup? What's the problem here? In either case, players get to play the game.

    I fee like you're undervaluing the Wolf influence on the game tbh. In a 50%, I reckon the best team wins most of the time more than in any other EV setup.

  23. ISO #23

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    As opposed to Wolf sided setup? What's the problem here? In either case, players get to play the game.

    I fee like you're undervaluing the Wolf influence on the game tbh. In a 50%, I reckon the best team wins most of the time more than in any other EV setup.
    As opposed to a balanced setup.

    I think you don't realize what it means for a setup to have a 50% EV under EV Project conditions.

    In a mountainous game with 1 wolf, you need 6 town for town to pass 50% EV
    In a mountainous game with 2 wolves, you need 19 town for town to pass 50% EV
    In a mountainous game with 3 wolves, you need 42 town for town to pass 50% EV
    In a mountainous game with 4 wolves, you need 71 town for town to pass 50% EV

    Like, those numbers are just comical

    40% EV mountainous benchmarks are:
    1 wolf, 4 town
    2 wolves, 11 town
    3 wolves, 24 town
    4 wolves, 43 town

    30% EV mountainous benchmarks are:
    1 wolf, 2 town
    2 wolves, 7 town
    3 wolves, 16 town
    4 wolves, 27 town

    And these numbers look a bit better, but even then, the 3 wolves and 4 wolves variants still look like there's a ton of town. A 19 player mountainous game also just sounds miserable as that could last until a day 9

    What this highlights though is the core flaw of the EV Project - it assumes random eliminations. But as the game goes on, eliminations aren't random - town has a history of actions on behalf of every player in the game to inform their knowledge on that players alignment. The EV project numbers can do well at predicting early stages of the game before highly AI events such as multiple EoDs and TvW EoDs, and it can do well to detect setups that are just blatantly one-sided one way or the other, but ultimately it's still just one tool in an arsenal of setup balance - not the end-all-be-all

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    If I wanted a mountainous 50%, I'd suggest red flag 15er, not 2vs19 regular mountainous btw. But regardless of how even those 2 vs 19 numbers look to you, as far as at least win chances go, I do think it'd average on that 50% with a large enough sample size, my own looking up the statistics of mountainous games doesn't give me a reason to doubt that. There's even that funny story of Thingyman winning 1vs20+
    But as I said before; we differ on how strongly we value each teams influence and the impact of scumhunting vs misleading. For me it all evens out, for you town influence is stronger especially in the long run.

    Like there's nothing more to it. You want to add slight favor to Mafia because you value Town strength higher than Mafia's; I don't.

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    If I wanted a mountainous 50%, I'd suggest red flag 15er, not 2vs19 regular mountainous btw. But regardless of how even those 2 vs 19 numbers look to you, as far as at least win chances go, I do think it'd average on that 50% with a large enough sample size, my own looking up the statistics of mountainous games doesn't give me a reason to doubt that. There's even that funny story of Thingyman winning 1vs20+
    But as I said before; we differ on how strongly we value each teams influence and the impact of scumhunting vs misleading. For me it all evens out, for you town influence is stronger especially in the long run.

    Like there's nothing more to it. You want to add slight favor to Mafia because you value Town strength higher than Mafia's; I don't.
    Red flag isn't even really mountainous, mafia should theoretically kill their own teammates at certain points to make it harder for town to gain points in a red flag setup. When you have mafia killing other mafia as an optimal play in a game, that really doesn't qualify as a mountainous game anymore.

    Also, I used to agree with you months ago, so I looked up all the champs games from the last time champs was a mountainous game, and I saw that despite having a 24.5% EV winrate, town was winning around 36% of the time. While the sample size was relatively small (14 games), it was significant enough of a difference to make me call my priors into question.

    Season 4 of Champs was a 12v3 mountainous, town won 5 of the 14 games. The probability of town winning 5 or more games assuming they should win 24.5% of the time is 10%

    That's not quite enough to be considered statistically significant, but it is enough to at least call into question the assumption as well as discredit claims that say that the data supports EV project projections.

    So when the data didn't support the conclusion (the EV winrate is not what you see in mountainous games in practice) and when intuition didn't support the conclusion (A 42 v 3 game sounds absurd), I had no choice but to reject the conclusion and modify my beliefs

  29. ISO #29

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    Red flag isn't even really mountainous, mafia should theoretically kill their own teammates at certain points to make it harder for town to gain points in a red flag setup. When you have mafia killing other mafia as an optimal play in a game, that really doesn't qualify as a mountainous game anymore.

    Also, I used to agree with you months ago, so I looked up all the champs games from the last time champs was a mountainous game, and I saw that despite having a 24.5% EV winrate, town was winning around 36% of the time. While the sample size was relatively small (14 games), it was significant enough of a difference to make me call my priors into question.

    Season 4 of Champs was a 12v3 mountainous, town won 5 of the 14 games. The probability of town winning 5 or more games assuming they should win 24.5% of the time is 10%

    That's not quite enough to be considered statistically significant, but it is enough to at least call into question the assumption as well as discredit claims that say that the data supports EV project projections.

    So when the data didn't support the conclusion (the EV winrate is not what you see in mountainous games in practice) and when intuition didn't support the conclusion (A 42 v 3 game sounds absurd), I had no choice but to reject the conclusion and modify my beliefs
    An interesting thing to watch for this year is if town wins 5 of the 13 games, then that'll be enough data to say that the data does not support the EV project hypothesis in a statistically significant way.

  30. ISO #30

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    Red flag isn't even really mountainous, mafia should theoretically kill their own teammates at certain points to make it harder for town to gain points in a red flag setup. When you have mafia killing other mafia as an optimal play in a game, that really doesn't qualify as a mountainous game anymore.

    Also, I used to agree with you months ago, so I looked up all the champs games from the last time champs was a mountainous game, and I saw that despite having a 24.5% EV winrate, town was winning around 36% of the time. While the sample size was relatively small (14 games), it was significant enough of a difference to make me call my priors into question.

    Season 4 of Champs was a 12v3 mountainous, town won 5 of the 14 games. The probability of town winning 5 or more games assuming they should win 24.5% of the time is 10%

    That's not quite enough to be considered statistically significant, but it is enough to at least call into question the assumption as well as discredit claims that say that the data supports EV project projections.

    So when the data didn't support the conclusion (the EV winrate is not what you see in mountainous games in practice) and when intuition didn't support the conclusion (A 42 v 3 game sounds absurd), I had no choice but to reject the conclusion and modify my beliefs
    Yah, that season 4 anomaly was really interesting. I think they did better than other seasons with same Town vs Mafia ratio but with Power Roles, and usually in Champs in qualifiers Mafia are overperforming while Town is overperforming in semis (finals feel even though? ) so that makes the anomaly even more strange.

    I'm curious how it will go this year!

    But anyhow, I looked at all MU mountainous games, not just the Champs, for my conclusion back then.
    Champs so weird. Almost always Mafia are overperforming, with all that different playstyle clash in the qualis, yet the one statistically mafia favored setup it's the opposite

    Edit: ohh yah the statistics results were fun
    Town has won 9 times, Scum have won 24 times.
    Town has 27.27% win rate overall.
    However, 5 of those wins are from Championship Season 4 games.
    Last edited by OzyWho; April 1st, 2022 at 11:07 AM.

  31. ISO #31

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    I disagree with you, Lag (oh noes, dissent among staffz!!!)

    50 % winrate for Town seems ideal. Scum have to fool town, it is their responsibility, whereas town has to not be fooled. If scums fool town better than townies see through the wolves' smokescreens and through their own shortcomings, scum deserve to win; in the opposite scenario, town deserve to win. If noone looked at their rolecards and if everyone played as if they were town, town should not have a lower chance to win in a perfectly balanced setup.

    Note that this ideal winrate varies depending on the nature of the setup: a setup with a lot of investigative actions, a lot of nightkills, heals, and basically any action that is somewhat meaningful swings the ideal winrate by random lynching one way or the other.

    Edit: after discussion, Lag convinced me that I was wrong on the 50 % winrate for random lynching being ideal. I just don't think using winrate for random lynches is that meaningful, because random lynches are simply not real. They never happen, so they do not represent reality.
    Last edited by Marshmallow Marshall; April 1st, 2022 at 01:44 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  32. ISO #32

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    I disagree with you, Lag (oh noes, dissent among staffz!!!)

    50 % winrate for Town seems ideal. Scum have to fool town, it is their responsibility, whereas town has to not be fooled. If scums fool town better than townies see through the wolves' smokescreens and through their own shortcomings, scum deserve to win; in the opposite scenario, town deserve to win. If noone looked at their rolecards and if everyone played as if they were town, town should not have a lower chance to win in a perfectly balanced setup.

    Note that this ideal winrate varies depending on the nature of the setup: a setup with a lot of investigative actions, a lot of nightkills, heals, and basically any action that is somewhat meaningful swings the ideal winrate by random lynching one way or the other.

    Edit: after discussion, Lag convinced me that I was wrong on the 50 % winrate for random lynching being ideal. I just don't think using winrate for random lynches is that meaningful, because random lynches are simply not real. They never happen, so they do not represent reality.
    It feels like I could've said this. Well done tovarish. You are well on your way to becoming an anti-statistician

  33. ISO #33

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    It feels like I could've said this. Well done tovarish. You are well on your way to becoming an anti-statistician
    Lmao this made my day

    Personal, non-staff comments:
    About the setup itself though, don't you fear it's going to be a little, uh... boring? 5 players is REALLY not much to start a game with. Plus, the fact there's just one scum means there are no associations to make, so it's harder to find content.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  34. ISO #34

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Lmao this made my day

    Personal, non-staff comments:
    About the setup itself though, don't you fear it's going to be a little, uh... boring? 5 players is REALLY not much to start a game with. Plus, the fact there's just one scum means there are no associations to make, so it's harder to find content.
    Idk to be honest I haven't played a small game like this in a long while

    Closest thing is lady gaga which was kinda... not boring?

  35. ISO #35

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    Idk to be honest I haven't played a small game like this in a long while

    Closest thing is lady gaga which was kinda... not boring?
    Lady Gaga was:
    - bigger
    - a cult game (meaning associations exist, albeit differently)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    Exactly the point, if town can win the majority of the time by having literally zero skill or insights and just acting randomly, then the setup is very townsided because playing intelligently will only increase their winrate further.

    That's why setups need to have a sub 50% winrate (ideally 30-40%) for town when playing randomly to give room for town to bring that winrate up when playing intelligently
    Scum does not have to play particularly intelligently. Scum just have to stay under the radar whilst town lynch each other. 95% of the time this is how town loses

    Town has to be better than scum to win. If scum and town have the same skill level, scum wins 100% of the time.

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    So I had actually read the setup incorrectly, I read it as

    "Put a bounty on a player at night.
    The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
    If the player is lynched during the ensuing day,
    you gain one charge of a night kill."

    Rather than

    "Put a bounty on a player at night.
    The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
    If the player is not lynched during the ensuing day,
    you gain one charge of a night kill."

    This changes the EV project numbers to be:
    2 town v 1 wolf: 33.33% winrate
    3 town v 1 wolf: 33.33% winrate
    4 town v 1 wolf: 46.67% winrate
    5 town v 1 wolf: 46.67% winrate
    6 town v 1 wolf: 54.29% winrate
    7 town v 1 wolf: 54.29% winrate
    8 town v 1 wolf: 59.37% winrate
    9 town v 1 wolf: 59.37% winrate
    10 town v 1 wolf: 63.88% winrate
    11 town v 1wolf: 63.88% winrate

    3 town v 2 wolves: 13.33% winrate
    4 town v 2 wolves: 13.33% winrate
    5 town v 2 wolves: 22.86% winrate
    6 town v 2 wolves: 22.86% winrate
    7 town v 2 wolves: 29.84% winrate
    8 town v 2 wolves: 29.84% winrate
    9 town v 2 wolves: 35.21% winrate
    10 town v 2 wolves: 35.21% winrate
    11 town v 2 wolves: 39.62% winrate

  40. ISO #40

  41. ISO #41

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    So I had actually read the setup incorrectly, I read it as

    "Put a bounty on a player at night.
    The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
    If the player is lynched during the ensuing day,
    you gain one charge of a night kill."

    Rather than

    "Put a bounty on a player at night.
    The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
    If the player is not lynched during the ensuing day,
    you gain one charge of a night kill."
    Wait, what? Has that always been the case? @Oberon

    Btw, Lag, why is it that the statistics numbers only change every +2 townies? Town can't skip, i feel like +1 townie should change something
    Last edited by OzyWho; April 4th, 2022 at 10:23 AM.

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    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Wait, what? Has that always been the case? @Oberon

    Btw, Lag, why is it that the statistics numbers only change every +2 townies? Town can't skip, i feel like +1 townie should change something
    With 3v1 the wolf never bounties themself, since from wolf POV that guarantees either town kills the bountied person and it goes to a F3 or town kills among those not bountied and its a pseudo F3 (where if they're wrong it goes to parity and wolf wins)

    Town kills the bountied player at least one third of the time. If they killed the bountied player less than one third of the time, it opens them up to exploitation by the wolf where the wolf could bounty themself in order to win more often than 66.67% although town could choose to kill the bountied player every time, which is effectively the same as sleeping in a standard setups F4. As long as they kill the bountied player at least one third of the time though they'll be game theory optimal

  46. ISO #46

  47. ISO #47

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Lag View Post
    With 3v1 the wolf never bounties themself, since from wolf POV that guarantees either town kills the bountied person and it goes to a F3 or town kills among those not bountied and its a pseudo F3 (where if they're wrong it goes to parity and wolf wins)

    Town kills the bountied player at least one third of the time. If they killed the bountied player less than one third of the time, it opens them up to exploitation by the wolf where the wolf could bounty themself in order to win more often than 66.67% although town could choose to kill the bountied player every time, which is effectively the same as sleeping in a standard setups F4. As long as they kill the bountied player at least one third of the time though they'll be game theory optimal
    4v1 gives town a chance at mislynching out of the bountied player, though, which does change a lot in the game. It's the difference between "lynch the bounty, lynch correctly, or lose" and having some leeway.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  48. ISO #48

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    4v1 gives town a chance at mislynching out of the bountied player, though, which does change a lot in the game. It's the difference between "lynch the bounty, lynch correctly, or lose" and having some leeway.
    Ozy was asking why 2v1 and 3v1 have the same winrate.

    4v1 does indeed have a higher winrate for town than either of those two, and is the same as the winrate for 5v1

  49. ISO #49

  50. ISO #50

    Re: S-FM Texorami

    Alright, so what is the conclusion of all of this estimated value discussion? That everything is fine, right? lol

    Apart from this, please specify the usual stuff under Mechanics: phase lenght, lynch mechanics, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

 

 

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