S-FM 338: Deck Mafia #008

[PQRnHack]

@Loldebite , I will wait for you to show up so that we do this proper and not in your absence (may as well execute a hammer when you do show up, I have enough after what I read just now and don't need 45 more hours).

[PQRnHack]

I think perhaps SB16 is a bit unlikely since his only vote was practically on Paopan for the most part. I also think it was quite a few hours before ITA's hit when his vote was placed. Additionally, he said Paopan was elected MVP for a non-deck-mafia-game on another site (and he's not wrong about that) and it makes me think: If SB were Pao's partner, he would be pushing Pao in-chat to not be bussed on d1 or something like that in wolf chat.

Whereas HK's vote was placed only ~2 hours earlier, and I had the impression it was potentially bussing-material. Seanzie also had some sort of negative impression related to HK's vote, and he later changed it to a more positive one. I was trying to get him to elaborate so I can discuss it with him but then the hammer happened.

Also do you make anything of the fact that Paopan had a wagon of 3 within 5 hours, and then it disappeared within the next 16 hours after? The second quote, while it doesn't say it, is when I noticed it was gone and I was the only one on it.

@Loldebite check this out

[Guillo]

I forgot.
No hammer today

99 votes to hammer.

[hollowkatt]

He voted Frinckles, who

1. Correctly scumread Martin from the start of day 2
2. Pushed and prodded Martin in his posts
3. Shot Martin, who flipped scum

-vote Stealthbomber16

Yeah, I absolutely did vote Frinckles yesterday and the reason behind it is really simple, it's already in the thread from me today. His case on me was extremely limited to "vote position on Paopan bad, and also HK is good at busing". It never evolved, he never explored other options, and he wasn't trying to solve the game. He was hyper focused on me for those reasons, and he tried shooting martin prior to the start of ITAs and when Martin did eventually flip (thanks Brad!) my first thought was "is frinckles trying to get credit to go deep" and the reason I thought that was he saw how effective it was when I did it on MU.

Sure in hindsight with frinckles being town you can say all the things you said up there, but if we hadn't flipped him everyone would be wondering "was that a bus"?

I’m consistent. I viewed Frinckles as pretty much confirmed town following those events, just as I feel I should be pretty much confirmed town following day 1.

Who shot Gikkle? Brad was the scum kill for sure. @Loldebite did you shoot Gikkle?

I want to know how you thought Frinckles was pretty much confirmed town after that. Why did it never cross your mind he could have been busing? Why did it never occur to you that he may have been looking for credit.

The problem I have with that play is you've been working on assumptions instead of analysis. One thing that I see over and over from wolves is "this person is just town" without any kind of consideration as to why they're town or how the read developed.

Your read on me is "HK helped chop the person who shot at martin and laid a case there" but there was zero thought as to whether or not that could have been theater and a bus. This is stale from you and exactly what I'd expect from the wolf in your position.

[PQRnHack]

So @hollowkatt you want me to believe SB16 bussed Paopan this hard D1? And that Paopan confessed to his scummate in his wall to troll town with this easter egg, where Paopan said

StealthBomber16
Sup fellow scum. Where u at? Talk to us later okay??
If you lie low for more than 24h I will vote heavily scum read you okay??

[Stealthbomber16]

-vote Stealthbomber16

Yeah, I absolutely did vote Frinckles yesterday and the reason behind it is really simple, it's already in the thread from me today. His case on me was extremely limited to "vote position on Paopan bad, and also HK is good at busing". It never evolved, he never explored other options, and he wasn't trying to solve the game. He was hyper focused on me for those reasons, and he tried shooting martin prior to the start of ITAs and when Martin did eventually flip (thanks Brad!) my first thought was "is frinckles trying to get credit to go deep" and the reason I thought that was he saw how effective it was when I did it on MU.

Sure in hindsight with frinckles being town you can say all the things you said up there, but if we hadn't flipped him everyone would be wondering "was that a bus"?



I want to know how you thought Frinckles was pretty much confirmed town after that. Why did it never cross your mind he could have been busing? Why did it never occur to you that he may have been looking for credit.

The problem I have with that play is you've been working on assumptions instead of analysis. One thing that I see over and over from wolves is "this person is just town" without any kind of consideration as to why they're town or how the read developed.

Your read on me is "HK helped chop the person who shot at martin and laid a case there" but there was zero thought as to whether or not that could have been theater and a bus. This is stale from you and exactly what I'd expect from the wolf in your position.

Because shooting your fellow scum who wasn't on many people's lynch radar when he could've very easily justified shooting me AFTER he was already down a player is a dumb play. Frinckles isn't dumb. I absolutely was not wondering if Frinckles was bussing Martin because he fucking shot him. That's not bussing. That's attempted murder, which is a whole different box. I don't think most skilled players will take a 30% chance of losing their scum mate to bus. I also specifically don't think that Frinckles would do that due to player meta- he's not the type of player to leave things up to RNG.

I don't have to justify why Loldebite is town. I just have to justify why you're scum. Do not try to shift my goalposts.

[Stealthbomber16]

You're projecting.

You pushed a scumread on Frinckles because of the possibility of him bussing immediately after bussing your scum buddy to death on day 1.

[Stealthbomber16]

Mechanics also don't back you up here, which I will explain if loldebite claims what I expect him to claim.

[hollowkatt]

So @hollowkatt you want me to believe SB16 bussed Paopan this hard D1? And that Paopan confessed to his scummate in his wall to troll town with this easter egg, where Paopan said

Having written almost that exact post as a wolf before, why is that impossible to imagine?

I mean it's the same argument Frinckles used against me isn't it? HK is good at busing therefore he's a wolf. Even though he was only in this game for a day I learned that Paopan is clearly a chaos muppet who will say whatever it is he wants to say whenever he wants to say it. I'm not sure there's valid/useful spew to be looking at there.

[hollowkatt]

Because shooting your fellow scum who wasn't on many people's lynch radar when he could've very easily justified shooting me AFTER he was already down a player is a dumb play. Frinckles isn't dumb. I absolutely was not wondering if Frinckles was bussing Martin because he fucking shot him. That's not bussing. That's attempted murder, which is a whole different box. I don't think most skilled players will take a 30% chance of losing their scum mate to bus. I also specifically don't think that Frinckles would do that due to player meta- he's not the type of player to leave things up to RNG.

I don't have to justify why Loldebite is town. I just have to justify why you're scum. Do not try to shift my goalposts.

From my perspective you need to justify everything. I know I'm town, I believe lolde is town and I believe PQR is town. That leaves you. If I'm wrong and you are town and I am town where then is the last wolf?

Did you not pay attention when I talked about the last Deck Mafia game on MU where wolf #3 shot her partner wolf #4 on D2 and rode that credit to the end of the game? It is 100% something a savvy wolf could (and maybe even should do) in that situation because holy fuck the credit you get out of it.
The only reason it caught my eye that way when Frinckles did it is he seemed too eager to take the shot, and if he'd hit and was the last wolf I think he auto-wins this.

Was I wrong? Yes. Would I make that exact push again? Absofuckinglutely yes I would.

[hollowkatt]

Mechanics also don't back you up here, which I will explain if loldebite claims what I expect him to claim.

explain to me how mechanics don't back me up here. Waiting for loldebite is stalling and you know it.

[Stealthbomber16]

From my perspective you need to justify everything. I know I'm town, I believe lolde is town and I believe PQR is town. That leaves you. If I'm wrong and you are town and I am town where then is the last wolf?

Did you not pay attention when I talked about the last Deck Mafia game on MU where wolf #3 shot her partner wolf #4 on D2 and rode that credit to the end of the game? It is 100% something a savvy wolf could (and maybe even should do) in that situation because holy fuck the credit you get out of it.
The only reason it caught my eye that way when Frinckles did it is he seemed too eager to take the shot, and if he'd hit and was the last wolf I think he auto-wins this.

Was I wrong? Yes. Would I make that exact push again? Absofuckinglutely yes I would.

You aren't town. The last wolf is you. If it isn't you, then it's still you because it's nobody else.

Town won that game. Which means that player was still independently scummy enough for them to see through that. Frinckles was not indepedently scummy enough for you to justify that- which is showcased by the fact he was lynched with TWO VOTES.

[Stealthbomber16]

Pending loldebite's arrival I'm pretty sure the only person it could be is PQ.

[Stealthbomber16]

Pending loldebite's arrival I'm pretty sure the only other person it could be is PQ.

Fixed

[hollowkatt]

You aren't town. The last wolf is you. If it isn't you, then it's still you because it's nobody else.

Town won that game. Which means that player was still independently scummy enough for them to see through that. Frinckles was not indepedently scummy enough for you to justify that- which is showcased by the fact he was lynched with TWO VOTES.

I have no idea what your point is. It's my fault now that frinckles died with only two votes? You're assigning a lot of responsibility to me here. He had a wolf read on me yes? Why wasn't he voting me then? Why didn't he try to get my wagon going? Why didn't he appear to give a flying fuck at all whether or not he died?

You came into today "knowing" I'm the last wolf. You have to make this push because in your world view I'm the only one it could be. Yes I see you said "maybe PQR" but we both know you'd never seriously consider that.

Today was always going to be you coming after me from your point of view.
You've not re-evaluated world states, you've not considered options, you, SB16, have an agenda.

[hollowkatt]

If you have something to out then just out it. Waiting for Loldebite is stalling.

[Stealthbomber16]

I have no idea what your point is. It's my fault now that frinckles died with only two votes? You're assigning a lot of responsibility to me here. He had a wolf read on me yes? Why wasn't he voting me then? Why didn't he try to get my wagon going? Why didn't he appear to give a flying fuck at all whether or not he died?

You came into today "knowing" I'm the last wolf. You have to make this push because in your world view I'm the only one it could be. Yes I see you said "maybe PQR" but we both know you'd never seriously consider that.

Today was always going to be you coming after me from your point of view.
You've not re-evaluated world states, you've not considered options, you, SB16, have an agenda.

You're absolutely correct, it COULD be PQR mechanically.

It isn't. I will never seriously consider it when a far more scummy person exists.

[hollowkatt]

You're absolutely correct, it COULD be PQR mechanically.

It isn't. I will never seriously consider it when a far more scummy person exists.

Explain why you, as town, would never bother considering any other options

[hollowkatt]

Like you and I both know you were pot committed in town reading loldebite, so he's never an option for you. My suspicion is that you chose me as your push target for the day b/c fighting PQR was going to be too difficult whereas there was enough baked in suspicion on me that my push is theoretically easier than his.

What you didn't count on was me actually being town and fighting for my life here. So unless you want to seriously re-evaluate the thread and seriously re-evaluate your reads on PQR and loldebite I think we're done here. You're the wolf and I'm the last chop you need to win the game. It couldn't be more clear to me.

[PQRnHack]

If you have something to out then just out it. Waiting for Loldebite is stalling.

Eh... I think you are trying too hard now. Highlights(bold text) are my own.

Loldebite has been townie from very early in the game and shooting him was dumb. I think I get why you did it though.
I can't shake my paranoia about you but that paranoia is basically built on "PQR is a very chaotic player" which isn't wolfy at all, until it is. But I don't think you're the last wolf.

SB16 is a slot I have very little recollection of. I'm going to have to read his ISO today. I don't think we should rush things though

The fact that you didn't open with "it must be SB16" seems to suggest you chose to be an opportunistic scum who wanted to see if idiot PQ would consider Loldebite or vice versa to keep your options open.

Stalling is fine, as it was stated there is no hammer today, so we sit for 40 more hours no matter what, unless a mechanic to hammer early is employed (I already used my 1-shot of that D1).

And if I got it wrong and it is indeed SB16, you have permission to call me an idiot and to give a WP to SB16.

If all of us got it wrong and it's Lolde, then we're all village idiots.

[Stealthbomber16]

I'm done trying to convince scum that they are scum. If anyone has a question, ask it. I'll come back once there's someone to have an actual conversation with.

If I'm correct, loldebite basically confirmed himself last night. HK has already fucked up because now the lynch pool has narrowed from 3 possible lynch targets to 2, so he's going to have to tunnel me hard today (which is fair, I'm also tunneling him).

Which means my play today revolves solely around convincing loldebite that no, this ISN'T just a repeat of Politico II. I am actually town this time lol.

[PQRnHack]

You're absolutely correct, it COULD be PQR mechanically.

It's not possible and I can prove it.

[hollowkatt]

Eh... I think you are trying too hard now. Highlights(bold text) are my own.



The fact that you didn't open with "it must be SB16" seems to suggest you chose to be an opportunistic scum who wanted to see if idiot PQ would consider Loldebite or vice versa to keep your options open.

Stalling is fine, as it was stated there is no hammer today, so we sit for 40 more hours no matter what, unless a mechanic to hammer early is employed (I already used my 1-shot of that D1).

And if I got it wrong and it is indeed SB16, you have permission to call me an idiot and to give a WP to SB16.

If all of us got it wrong and it's Lolde, then we're all village idiots.

It wasn't clear that it was SB until he voted me. I already laid out why I'm the person he has to push today with regards to how he's treated you and loldebite throughout the game, and the way he was talking about me yesterday was clear he was laying groundwork for this push.

I'm not trying too hard I'm trying to win town this game. If I die here town is at 2-1, NK is parity. From my point of view today is do or die and if I die the game is over.

I don't think it's you because of how you managed D2 post seanzie dying.
I'd feel a lot better about the gamestate if loldebite was here and posting ngl. Someone missing from MYLO never feels good.

[Stealthbomber16]

The missing link, HK, is who shot Gikkle. The fact that you didn't take credit for that is what gave you away.

PQ is out of actions.
I have no actions.
You didn't claim the gikkle kill.

This means loldebite did the kill. That's the same kill that I would've done last night. Which means loldebite is town.

The ONLY other mechanical option left is PQ, because he could have done the Bradland kill last night since he has no actions. But you've already agreed that it isn't PQ, which means you have to think I did the Bradland kill.

What did you do last night, HK? Anything confirmable? Do you want to claim the Gikkle kill?

[Stealthbomber16]

The missing link, HK, is who shot Gikkle. The fact that you didn't take credit for that is what gave you away.

PQ is out of actions.
I have no actions.
You didn't claim the gikkle kill.

This means loldebite did the kill. That's the same kill that I would've done last night if I had a gun. Which means loldebite is town.

The ONLY other mechanical option left is PQ, because he could have done the Bradland kill last night since he has no actions. But you've already agreed that it isn't PQ, which means you have to think I did the Bradland kill.

What did you do last night, HK? Anything confirmable? Do you want to claim the Gikkle kill?

Important fix.

[hollowkatt]

The missing link, HK, is who shot Gikkle. The fact that you didn't take credit for that is what gave you away.

PQ is out of actions.
I have no actions.
You didn't claim the gikkle kill.

This means loldebite did the kill. That's the same kill that I would've done last night. Which means loldebite is town.

The ONLY other mechanical option left is PQ, because he could have done the Bradland kill last night since he has no actions. But you've already agreed that it isn't PQ, which means you have to think I did the Bradland kill.

What did you do last night, HK? Anything confirmable? Do you want to claim the Gikkle kill?

Nope. I didn't act last night.

[Stealthbomber16]

Nope. I didn't act last night.

Which means loldebite is confirmed town and it's between us two.

[hollowkatt]

Which means loldebite is confirmed town and it's between us two.

And you know this how?

[PQRnHack]

Important fix.

Why wouldn't you shoot HK, if you had a gun? Why didn't Lolde shoot HK, if Lolde had a gun?

[PQRnHack]

Is Lolde blackmailed?

[Stealthbomber16]

And you know this how?

By filling in the blanks. If loldebite killed gikkle, he can't have possibly killed Bradland- the obvious scum kill.

[PQRnHack]

Meh, I thought the single scum killed both Bradland and Gikkle.

[PQRnHack]

One factional and one card-based.

[Stealthbomber16]

Why wouldn't you shoot HK, if you had a gun? Why didn't Lolde shoot HK, if Lolde had a gun?

Because Gikkle looked scummy. You have the possibility of scum bussing their teammate into Seanzie to get around protectives because it's unlikely that Gikkle is going to get healed. Both players voted Pao so you can't use vote analysis to pick. I thought HK's theory of Frinckles was pretty fucking stupid and there was no way of coming up with it as scum (i was wrong) so I thought Gikkle was the more likely person to be scum out of the two.

Plus loldebite voted with HK yesterday. He's not going to shoot him.

[hollowkatt]

By filling in the blanks. If loldebite killed gikkle, he can't have possibly killed Bradland- the obvious scum kill.

I'm sorry what the actual fuck?
Gikkle was literally 100% mechanically confirmed town. Brad shot and killed Martin, and shot and killed Boba N1. Brad looked really fucking townie but in no universe do wolves kill "looks really fucking townie" over "mechanically confirmed town".

Gikkle is always the wolf NK there.

Did SB just slip? Like actually slip?

[Stealthbomber16]

Meh, I thought the single scum killed both Bradland and Gikkle.

Wait, can you do both card and factional? Am I fucking stupid?

[Stealthbomber16]

I'm sorry what the actual fuck?
Gikkle was literally 100% mechanically confirmed town. Brad shot and killed Martin, and shot and killed Boba N1. Brad looked really fucking townie but in no universe do wolves kill "looks really fucking townie" over "mechanically confirmed town".

Gikkle is always the wolf NK there.

Did SB just slip? Like actually slip?

How the fuck was Gikkle mechanically confirmed town?

[PQRnHack]

Because Gikkle looked scummy. You have the possibility of scum bussing their teammate into Seanzie to get around protectives because it's unlikely that Gikkle is going to get healed. Both players voted Pao so you can't use vote analysis to pick. I thought HK's theory of Frinckles was pretty fucking stupid and there was no way of coming up with it as scum (i was wrong) so I thought Gikkle was the more likely person to be scum out of the two.

Plus loldebite voted with HK yesterday. He's not going to shoot him.

Eh, that's kinda BS. I am the one who tried to understand how Gikkle was mechanically cleared yesterday and several folks said they're not aware of games in which Mafia can target their own team member or have a strongman kill (e.g., on Seanzie). Now you're reviving my theory and giving it credit. Let's move on, Gikkle was town.

[hollowkatt]

Because Gikkle looked scummy. You have the possibility of scum bussing their teammate into Seanzie to get around protectives because it's unlikely that Gikkle is going to get healed. Both players voted Pao so you can't use vote analysis to pick. I thought HK's theory of Frinckles was pretty fucking stupid and there was no way of coming up with it as scum (i was wrong) so I thought Gikkle was the more likely person to be scum out of the two.

Plus loldebite voted with HK yesterday. He's not going to shoot him.

In what games have you played where a wolf can target another wolf with the NK and then bus drive them to a townie? Because that is what you just suggested could have happened.
For gikkle to be a wolf there, and therefore brad the obvs NK, gikkle had to have been targeted for the NK by Martin, then Martin would have had to bus drive gikkle and seanzie. I've never ever had a game where wolves could target a wolf with the NK.

[hollowkatt]

How the fuck was Gikkle mechanically confirmed town?

how the fuck was he NOT?

[hollowkatt]

Eh, that's kinda BS. I am the one who tried to understand how Gikkle was mechanically cleared yesterday and several folks said they're not aware of games in which Mafia can target their own team member or have a strongman kill (e.g., on Seanzie). Now you're reviving my theory and giving it credit. Let's move on, Gikkle was town.

I expected to wake up today with gikkle dead, he was always the obvs NK target. Brad was a surprise and sad

[PQRnHack]

How the fuck was Gikkle mechanically confirmed town?

This was discussed D2, read my own posts. Please do a read thoroughly, because if you are town and you are missing all these pieces, then I will use your own words and say that you are throwing.

[PQRnHack]

I expected to wake up today with gikkle dead, he was always the obvs NK target. Brad was a surprise and sad

Right.

[Stealthbomber16]

In what games have you played where a wolf can target another wolf with the NK and then bus drive them to a townie? Because that is what you just suggested could have happened.
For gikkle to be a wolf there, and therefore brad the obvs NK, gikkle had to have been targeted for the NK by Martin, then Martin would have had to bus drive gikkle and seanzie. I've never ever had a game where wolves could target a wolf with the NK.

I have absolutely played games where scum can target themselves with their abilities, especially if they redirect them. Host obviously would stop the scum from fucking throwing but this is possible.

I immediately think of a game where a scum targeted himself with a kill because he suspected he was going to be swapped with the person he wanted to kill. He won off that play.

[PQRnHack]

I expected to wake up today with gikkle dead, he was always the obvs NK target. Brad was a surprise and sad

On that note, tell me your hypothesis for how Gikkle and Brad died and how SB16 and Loldebite were involved in that.

[hollowkatt]

I have absolutely played games where scum can target themselves with their abilities, especially if they redirect them. Host obviously would stop the scum from fucking throwing but this is possible.

I immediately think of a game where a scum targeted himself with a kill because he suspected he was going to be swapped with the person he wanted to kill. He won off that play.

fuck that game host then that's bastard as hell.

i've been playing mafia since the early 2000s and have never ever been in a game where maf could self target.

[hollowkatt]

On that note, tell me your hypothesis for how Gikkle and Brad died and how SB16 and Loldebite were involved in that.

I know there are multiple cards that allow shooting at night. I also know, because of Deck Mafia 007 on MU that a single wolf can do the following in one night:
Night Kill
Role Block (if available, we had one in 007)
Use one card

[PQRnHack]

I know there are multiple cards that allow shooting at night. I also know, because of Deck Mafia 007 on MU that a single wolf can do the following in one night:
Night Kill
Role Block (if available, we had one in 007)
Use one card

OK so that's what you did then. Got it.

[Stealthbomber16]

If wolves can use cards and factionals then I am probably wrong.

-unvote

I'll be thinking and I'll come back later.

[PQRnHack]

Use one card - could also be redirecting Loldebite's shot (if there was any) to Brad. So that makes sense. Anyways I will wait to see if Lolde shows up. If they don't then they are either a mastermind scumbag or they have been silenced for the day and one of you bastards wants me to go BAAAA like a sheep.