S-FM 327 : Last Hope

[CRichardForumLies]

Alright I think I can rule scum pairings with the above posted VC.

Varcron/ZZOrange and Frinckles.
WrathCyber/OzyWho,TheoneCeko and Yuesford.
PQR/#2 and myself.
Lagattack/Oberon and blinkstalker.
Marshmallow Marshal/OzyWho

In case this is confusing, the first line for example means Vacron is not scum/scum with ZZOrange and Frinckles.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Yay, browser not bugged anymore. Little time now though...

Gonna implore you to do some serious catch-up when you can. The thread in it's entirety if possible. I've got you in limbo land but that's changing D2.

That's a very big expectation you have here. I will attempt to catch up, but I certainly can't promise reading 1000 posts atm. Night will help, though.

[CRichardForumLies]

Well I feel like not much is happening before real life calls.
By real life I mean socialising with people while playing chess.
Man it feels like a breath of fresh air after not playing chess for over a year with people irl.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

@Oberon @LagAttack @blinkskater
Guys, I really think it would be beneficial for us to encourage the Templar to reveal himself.

Ober, your apathy is unusual imho.
blink, you're familiar with oberon. He doesn't even look like at least pretending to scumhunt. What does your experience tell you about his alignment?

This is not Ozy trying to gain information or to gauge Oberon. This is Ozy trying to make others get dirty for him. Ozy knows Oberon rather well, and even if he didn't, if he wanted info for real, he'd just further interact with Oberon instead of going to Blink at the very start of the game, supposedly because Blink knows Oberon's meta. Assuming scum!Ozy, I would softclear both Oberon and Blink for this post from Ozy.

I like where my vote is atm. I'm also trying to see why Oberon became a hot topic earlier, but that's a little bit hard. I dare assume he didn't get attacked much because of the "d1 seriousness = scum" posts I pointed out earlier (which were slightly scummy, but not much, and not if you don't know Oberon).

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Since its not even an hour into day one i have no clue lmao.

Oberons gotten a lot better at FM either alignment, he can do shit now as scum he couldnt replicate before. Sorry no fucking clue lol

Thoughts about my verdict on Ozy asking you to do the work on Mag? It didn't seem to bother you here

[Marshmallow Marshall]

i like this (maybe i'm making a mistake here)

tentative unvote

-vote unvote

tentative vote

-vote LagAttack

rn, i'll be paying SOME attention to varc. however, i know from playing with him that he gets universally scumread as town AND scum. so i won't tunnel him rn

This reminds me of a game where Ceko was town. I don't remember the game's name, all I know is that I was a replacement, that Ceko had a cute rabbit avatar and that he was pretty much the town's leader. Of course, that's not a very solid read, but still.

Continuing the Ozy vs Oberon-Blink analysis:

Ahh fuck it, I throw my lynch boner on you out of the window.
Sadly I'm also starting to like Varcron; because i'm pretty sure he looks this scummy every game as either alignemtn.

-vote Oberon

He doesn't look towny at all to me tonally.

Now that Blink said he had no clue about Oberon's current meta, Ozy makes that post (it comes 4 minutes after Blink's). He places his vote and leads the charge himself.

I could see Ozy genuinely not liking Oberon's tone, since I didn't either lol, but the way he brings the push to life is very unnatural. It feels like he wants a lynch more than he wants to find scum.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

This I disagree with too

You and Ceko are going from train to train testing waters with different people to see who you can potentially push with the least trouble

You stayed on me up until I started defending, and now it seems you're going to do the same with Oberon/LagAttack.

I see Varcron got more or less the same vibe I did about Ozy's push: potentially push with the least trouble. +townpoints to Varcron for slight mindmeld.

I have to disagree about Ceko, though. His progression was much more natural and genuine-looking than Ozy's. Ceko investigating metas from people he knows from the mod, trying to gauge intent, etc. is very different from Ozy asking blink to basically lead the Oberon push for him, and then saying "I don't like Oberon's tone" as soon as he sees that didn't work.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Sup. How does Villager work? Do we just work together to kill the evil people?

I am tempted to say that's a very towny post if he's new to FM as a whole.

Reads paranoia = a scum thing...
dude...

How tf are you naturally this scummy looking?

Apathy, self-pres interest, reads paranoia (as opposed to alignment paranoia)...
Are you TRYING to get lynched? lol

Okay, I may be slightly tunnelled on Ozy, but I really think I'm right... this post has the EXACT tone of mafia @S-FM Skin Overdose (ozy's anonymous account) from the last ?krc game. I know it because I was his scummate lol, and when re-reading the posts from that game, I only strenghten the feeling Ozy is scum this game.

CHOO CHOOOOOOOOOOOO

[OzyWho]

If I'm applying what happened from the above linked game correctly, then there is a non-zero chance that Oberon is village in this game as they had a train form on them this game and in the linked game above.
It makes me wonder if this could be a repeat experience for Oberon/Ganelon.
We still have time, no reason not to look at the linked game for clues.

You're saying that Oberon could be town because there was a train on him here and in that other game? You can probably find trains for everyone as either alignment..

[OzyWho]

the templar subject was one of the worst and most time-wasting things discussed this game

The Templar subject was talked for like 10-20 posts in the entire game.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I AM NOT TEMPLAR!!!!!!

I didn't even know about that role and that it was a jester until like 20 minutes ago

There's a reason last like 7 out of 8 games had ~200 posts D1. It's because of attitudes like yours this game.
People waiting for something to happen in the game whilst never doing anything to achieve that.

are u scum tho??

i think you're scum

no.

I believe Oberon is town and has had a good lesson against D1 laziness. This situation certainly wasn't planned and doesn't benefit scum!Oberon. As for the two main anti-Oberon people of that time:

- I note Ozy did everything to bring the exact situation of Mag being suspected of being literally anything but town. Scum!Ozy benefits greatly from this, as it creates a massive smoke screen and generates chaos (assuming town!Oberon of course, since Ozy-Oberon makes zero sense as SvS).

- On the other hand, I note Ceko is riding on the situation, analysing posts as they come and changing his mind based on that. He has a townie's mindset.

[OzyWho]

This is not Ozy trying to gain information or to gauge Oberon. This is Ozy trying to make others get dirty for him. Ozy knows Oberon rather well, and even if he didn't, if he wanted info for real, he'd just further interact with Oberon instead of going to Blink at the very start of the game, supposedly because Blink knows Oberon's meta. Assuming scum!Ozy, I would softclear both Oberon and Blink for this post from Ozy.

I like where my vote is atm. I'm also trying to see why Oberon became a hot topic earlier, but that's a little bit hard. I dare assume he didn't get attacked much because of the "d1 seriousness = scum" posts I pointed out earlier (which were slightly scummy, but not much, and not if you don't know Oberon).

How can you say that I'm trying to paint Oberon right after yourself posting the exact same sentiment as I? What's going on your mind?

WHAT? Since when do you have this horrible stance lol? Aren't you part of the "get info in every not anti-town way possible" school? This is heresy.

@Marshmallow Marshall what is going on your mind here?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

POSTING THIS AS OF POST #203:

Finally caught up, here are my current reads:

@Marshmallow Marshall
@Frinckles
@ZZorange
@CRichardForumLies
@Yuesford
@PQRnHack

TEAM AFK: If there aren't any good candidates day 1 - I would like to see a policy lynch on an afk player - just to force them to talk, no silent coasting

@Numbertwo
Very quiet other than dropping a vote on ceko and leaving it there - I could see a scum dropping by - leaving a vote on someone they think has a high chance to get mislynched and then being "afk" the rest of the day - giving them plausible deniability that they were just dropping the vote during RVS when they were really contributing to a mislynch +scum points

@Varcron
Varcron has been more active in the thread - I have a relatively neutral read on him, although I don't like how he's "just taking notes" rather than contributing any of his own reads - I'm not reading this as scummy - but I really want to hear Varcron's thoughts very soon - and if he continues to withhold them then that's an increasingly scummy look

@theoneceko
I've talked a fair bit about ceko already so far, but from what I've seen, he's playing very similar to his town play from the mod and I think lots of the scum reads into ceko are misplaced

@Oberon
I don't like Oberon's apathy and stance that day 1 shouldn't be taken too seriously - minor scum points there - I want to force Oberon to give some actual reads rather than just writing the entire first day off

@WrathCyber
Very quiet - saying the game is overwhelming, and their one action was dropping a vote on me saying I'm Jester - their actions don't really make any sense in my opinion - likely because they're new to FM - but also possibly because scum. As I started typing this post I saw other people were asking them why they thought I was Jester, so I will re-evaluate after I hear their answer

@OzyWho
I am really getting a town read from Ozy - I don't think a scum would be this active in trying to make the first day productive. Their suspicion on ceko - while I disagree with it - feels like it comes from a genuine town point of view in my opinion too

@blinkskater
They haven't said anything substantive other than a cryptic vote on me saying it's "not RVS" with literally no explanation. Their absolute lack of contribution, vote on me, and then decision to keep the vote even after I've posted many times more with reads and contributions makes them my top scum candidate

This list focuses a lot on the face value of events and actions. It's a natural conclusion for a new but clever townie who is strongly engaged in the game. I don't want to be condescending, but if you want my reads, I have to say it, so sorry lol: the list shows a confusion between activity and townness typical of active newbie townies. See the read on Ozy vs the read on Numbertwo (who had done literally nothing of note at that point), for example.

Conclusion: Medium-strong townread on LagAttack.

Also, while the list isn't perfect because it doesn't really evaluate intent, I believe it is not that far from the truth when it comes to inactives. By PoE, I'm getting to a scum pool similar to this list's, with the notable exception of Ozy being right in the middle of the pool.

[Numbertwo]

Alright I think I can rule scum pairings with the above posted VC.

Varcron/ZZOrange and Frinckles.
WrathCyber/OzyWho,TheoneCeko and Yuesford.
PQR/#2 and myself.
Lagattack/Oberon and blinkstalker.
Marshmallow Marshal/OzyWho

So in other words you think me and Pornhack are town, considering that you put us in the same team as you.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

How can you say that I'm trying to paint Oberon right after yourself posting the exact same sentiment as I? What's going on your mind?


@Marshmallow Marshall what is going on your mind here?

1. It is quite obvious I am attacking the process by which you attacked Oberon and not your reasons for doing so. I detailed that in the first paragraph of the post you quoted.

2. I pointed out a disagreement in game theory that could have indicated Oberon was scum trying to kill the game or to coast away. Note that I wasn't caught up at all at the time. Seeing Oberon's progression throught early D1, I can safely say that's not what Oberon was doing.

[OzyWho]

Thoughts about my verdict on Ozy asking you to do the work on Mag? It didn't seem to bother you here

I have been valuing each other's meta reads on players on this site for many games, I even used to be a super - finding 1 town to trust then follow their lead (which is a little what I'm doing here with Ceko I suppose..).

I feel a little sad that you've forgotten all about it and act like it's a scummy thing.

[OzyWho]

1. It is quite obvious I am attacking the process by which you attacked Oberon and not your reasons for doing so. I detailed that in the first paragraph of the post you quoted.

2. I pointed out a disagreement in game theory that could have indicated Oberon was scum trying to kill the game or to coast away. Note that I wasn't caught up at all at the time. Seeing Oberon's progression throught early D1, I can safely say that's not what Oberon was doing.

Idk where you see a difference.
Fmpov you called out oberon's apathy, then when you saw me doing the same you called it scumpainting. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Oberon]

The Templar subject was talked for like 10-20 posts in the entire game.

oh I didn't mean what you talked about, my bad
I meant ppl accusing me of being jester. :cries:

[OzyWho]

This reminds me of a game where Ceko was town. I don't remember the game's name, all I know is that I was a replacement, that Ceko had a cute rabbit avatar and that he was pretty much the town's leader. Of course, that's not a very solid read, but still.

Continuing the Ozy vs Oberon-Blink analysis:


Now that Blink said he had no clue about Oberon's current meta, Ozy makes that post (it comes 4 minutes after Blink's). He places his vote and leads the charge himself.

I could see Ozy genuinely not liking Oberon's tone, since I didn't either lol, but the way he brings the push to life is very unnatural. It feels like he wants a lynch more than he wants to find scum.

Riiiight.. "-vote Oberon He doesn't look towny at all to me tonally." is very unnatural.. It's like we're talking about lylo or something.

Are you holding out on me again like in the game with efe?

[OzyWho]

Ok I'm about halfway there to suspect MM of OMGUS'ing, ever since since he came back and saw that I pointed out him being tonally in his scum range

There's so little logic..

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Don't start thinking you're towncore, you're really not.

This is how I feel every game, congratulations.

I like the care Varcron has about not allowing people to get towncore status for bad reasons. Not a solid tell, but a tell nonetheless.

I probably have enough to make a list of reads now, so here we go:

Oberon (would drop a bit if Ozy flipped green, but would still be towny)
theoneceko

LagAttack

Varcron
WrathCyber (just for the "how does villager work" stuff - I haven't read whatever made people vote him yet)

Blinkskater (solely because I believe Ozy tried to use town!blink to start a train on town!Oberon; if town!Ozy, this read stops existing)
Frinckles (overall seems solvy and all, but I saw nothing out of his scum range)


-- Null reads, i.e. people I don't mention, go here. They are slightly scummy simply by PoE, though, since I have quite a lot of townreads. --


OzyWho

[OzyWho]

@Oberon
Anyhow, MM made plenty of posts now and you've probably the highest accuracy on reading him.

What do your instincts tell you about him?

[Oberon]

idk im pretty sure ozy is just a tunnelling townie, I disagree with your scumread on him

[Oberon]

@Oberon
Anyhow, MM made plenty of posts now and you've probably the highest accuracy on reading him.

What do your instincts tell you about him?

dunno yet

[OzyWho]

I like the care Varcron has about not allowing people to get towncore status for bad reasons. Not a solid tell, but a tell nonetheless.

I probably have enough to make a list of reads now, so here we go:

Oberon (would drop a bit if Ozy flipped green, but would still be towny)
theoneceko

LagAttack

Varcron
WrathCyber (just for the "how does villager work" stuff - I haven't read whatever made people vote him yet)

Blinkskater (solely because I believe Ozy tried to use town!blink to start a train on town!Oberon; if town!Ozy, this read stops existing)
Frinckles (overall seems solvy and all, but I saw nothing out of his scum range)


-- Null reads, i.e. people I don't mention, go here. They are slightly scummy simply by PoE, though, since I have quite a lot of townreads. --


OzyWho

The OMGUS'ing MM
This is genuinely funny

[Oberon]

what MM is doing is NAI, but I think you're not Mafia/Mafia, that's just about the only thing I can get from this

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Idk where you see a difference.
Fmpov you called out oberon's apathy, then when you saw me doing the same you called it scumpainting. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yes, and from your point of view, the Jedi are evil :P

Seriously though, the difference is that you seem to have looked for a way to get Oberon in a bad spot to potentially lynch him today instead of actually trying to know what he is. Also, I didn't say you were scumpainting him. I even said this in #1106:

I could see Ozy genuinely not liking Oberon's tone, since I didn't either lol, but the way he brings the push to life is very unnatural. It feels like he wants a lynch more than he wants to find scum.

It's already all explained. Anyway, I have to go now, and I'm very likely not going to be back before EoD. I'm content with where my vote is, because Ozy is likely to flip scum (and to give tremendous amounts of clears by doing so) and, to a lesser extent, because if he flips town, his flip rules out my theories and gives information in a different way. You guys should have a reasonable amount of content to read me on now, too. See you later.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

The OMGUS'ing MM
This is genuinely funny

Before going, though. What the hell am I OMGUSing? You're not even voting me XD. And afaik, you haven't pushed me very hard either, so no, denied lol. Anyway, see you

[OzyWho]

Before going, though. What the hell am I OMGUSing? You're not even voting me XD. And afaik, you haven't pushed me very hard either, so no, denied lol. Anyway, see you

You made it very clear that the first thing that caught your attention when you came here was me calling your tone to be in your scum range.

Though, as I said, it was just 5 posts and you had no time.
I can't say that it changed much when you came back. A little it did.

[Oberon]

I'm just kinda slotting everyone mostly as a null, apart from ozy, wrath, lag, pornhack, yuesford

there's nothing towny about like 90% of the people in this game, idk why people are voting wrath, there's much better targets available, at least wrath has had decent thoughts

[OzyWho]

I'm just kinda slotting everyone mostly as a null, apart from ozy, wrath, lag, pornhack, yuesford

there's nothing towny about like 90% of the people in this game, idk why people are voting wrath, there's much better targets available, at least wrath has had decent thoughts

Btw I asked you a question earlier, I hope you could answer it: https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...765#post926765

[Oberon]

@Oberon
Just ftr, so you too scumread Varcron, PQR and me - right?
That's about the only thoughts of Wrath that I remember.

no, I don't
I scum read PQR

[Oberon]

I guess I have varcron as a slight town lean, if for no reason other than being against the consensus, a thought that Richard came up with and I agreed with?
but yeah idk

[OzyWho]

I guess I have varcron as a slight town lean, if for no reason other than being against the consensus, a thought that Richard came up with and I agreed with?
but yeah idk

Reference:

I was humoring Varc's suspicion you are a templar, which makes me think they're more likely village as village tends to dissent from consensus more often than wolves do from my experience.

Reference

Conveniently didn't read the second portion of my post, I said it could be, not that it was 100% possible. If I were to take a stab I'd say that Oberon/Blink could potentially be a team

With Ceko being Templar and Ozy/Lag being my two top town reads i'd be more inclined to believe that that is not the team.

Caused by

Ok so if you think it's "indicative of a team", which team do you have in mind?

You can literally follow trails wherever Richard went in this thread.

[OzyWho]

Idk I hear the Archer constellation is good

Knight is good

Knight is good for finding 1 Shadow, but I don't really like the level 2 because kill.
Archer is best imho.
But if I could nail paladin, imagine how would that be! To become a glorious master..

But yeah, I'm thinking Archer, definitely.

[Oberon]

also, if you get put up, you should 100% claim your role prior to being lynched.
please, if you're a PR, claim your role. I'd rather have a PR outed than dead.

[CRichardForumLies]

I am tempted to say that's a very towny post if he's new to FM as a whole.


Okay, I may be slightly tunnelled on Ozy, but I really think I'm right... this post has the EXACT tone of mafia @S-FM Skin Overdose (ozy's anonymous account) from the last ?krc game. I know it because I was his scummate lol, and when re-reading the posts from that game, I only strenghten the feeling Ozy is scum this game.

CHOO CHOOOOOOOOOOOO

I think Wrath is new to FM from what I remember them saying.
Also looking at MM interaction with Ozy is blatantly not scum/scum and I think MM is showing a towny mindset with their take on Ozy's play so far.

[CRichardForumLies]

also, if you get put up, you should 100% claim your role prior to being lynched.
please, if you're a PR, claim your role. I'd rather have a PR outed than dead.

That's seems obvious if I didn't know any better wowee.

[CRichardForumLies]

This reminds me of a game where Ceko was town. I don't remember the game's name, all I know is that I was a replacement, that Ceko had a cute rabbit avatar and that he was pretty much the town's leader. Of course, that's not a very solid read, but still.

Continuing the Ozy vs Oberon-Blink analysis:


Now that Blink said he had no clue about Oberon's current meta, Ozy makes that post (it comes 4 minutes after Blink's). He places his vote and leads the charge himself.

I could see Ozy genuinely not liking Oberon's tone, since I didn't either lol, but the way he brings the push to life is very unnatural. It feels like he wants a lynch more than he wants to find scum.

This post reeks of a towny mindset as I discussed early. The thoughts shown feel genuine and I think that whoever is on Lag might want to take another look at Ozy and see what conclusions you make of it.
Anyway if Ozy is scum, then I'm calling MM lock village this entire game.

[OzyWho]

Idk I hear the Archer constellation is good

This post reeks of a towny mindset as I discussed early. The thoughts shown feel genuine and I think that whoever is on Lag might want to take another look at Ozy and see what conclusions you make of it.
Anyway if Ozy is scum, then I'm calling MM lock village this entire game.

If LagAttack is scum, you'd expect me to be his scummate?

If so, then why would I attempt to make people re-evaluate Lag when there'd no need for it?

For example, remember the game where I was scum in a hybrid with Efe?
I totally Scum-OMGUS'ed on MM hard that game; because it makes creating content as scum easy when `being tunneled`.
Lag was on that tunnel for like 30 posts (random guess), which does feel a lot and reminds of my purposeful tunnel on MM.

After which he pulled an AtE to `leave the game for the day`.
Remember krc Day1? I pulled a AtE day1 just for the sole purpose of not having to be present at EoD.

I do see a world where LagAttack could be scum here.
I just think that for their first game - there's little chance of that. (especially since they always prefer town in the mod, hence have little scum experience)

[OzyWho]

Damn multi quote

[CRichardForumLies]

If LagAttack is scum, you'd expect me to be his scummate?

If so, then why would I attempt to make people re-evaluate Lag when there'd no need for it?

I think you and Lag aren't ever scum partners because Lag gives strong newbie town vibes from their play so far.
Oh was this for me?

[OzyWho]

@CRichardForumLies
Tbh, MM might have almost more FM experience than all of us combined, his mindset would always look towny.

Historically on this site he was always caught by meta, and the defining trait that distinguishes his scum meta from towns is tone; he can never fake it.

[OzyWho]

I think you and Lag aren't ever scum partners because Lag gives strong newbie town vibes from their play so far.
Oh was this for me?

Wait, so if me and lag are never scum/scum then what's your reasoning here?:

I think that whoever is on Lag might want to take another look at Ozy and see what conclusions you make of it.

[CRichardForumLies]

Wait, so if me and lag are never scum/scum then what's your reasoning here?:

I village read LagAttack for the record, so it's obvious I don't think you and Lag are ever scum/scum.
As for you, I've been slightly village reading you though MM's case on gives me pause.

[OzyWho]

@CRichardForumLies
Btw I'm curious, what does your experience say about people alignments who chainsaw?

I thought it strange that I'm the only one who thought it suspicious.
Reference: https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...312#post926312

Ceko has been the only one showing even slight interest in that read, others ignored it even when pinged and asked about it.

Is it really so nonsensical?

[CRichardForumLies]

So in other words you think me and Pornhack are town, considering that you put us in the same team as you.

I'm not familiar with Pronhack whoever they are.
I have you as a null and I don't think you're partnered with PQR if we're in a world where PQR is scum.
Of course if PQR is scum, then I would reevaluate you to a town read.
Yes I mispelled the name so the censors don't yell at me.

[CRichardForumLies]

@CRichardForumLies
Btw I'm curious, what does your experience say about people alignments who chainsaw?

I thought it strange that I'm the only one who thought it suspicious.
Reference: https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...312#post926312

Ceko has been the only one showing even slight interest in that read, others ignored it even when pinged and asked about it.

Is it really so nonsensical?

I've only seen scum use chainsaw defence when defending other scum from being pushed by villagers.
I guess it isn't impossible for scum to chainsaw defend villagers from other villagers, though I've yet to see it.

[OzyWho]

I've only seen scum use chainsaw defence when defending other scum from being pushed by villagers.
I guess it isn't impossible for scum to chainsaw defend villagers from other villagers, though I've yet to see it.

Your confidence in Town!Varcron is unusually high tbh. Varcron is always looked at as scummy almost every game.

[CRichardForumLies]

Your confidence in Town!Varcron is unusually high tbh. Varcron is always looked at as scummy almost every game.

That's not something I would known about Varcron before playing this game.
This is my first game on this website and the only two people on this player list I've seen before were MM, you and Oberon aka Ganelon.
I feel like I've explained my village!Varcron before, though if you insist the one thing that made me sure was their dissent on Ceko being a consensus village read earlier D1.